This race is as unique as it gets. Heading into Thursday’s games, there are currently 7 teams within 2.5 games of the last spot in the playoffs.

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Crowded? Yes. Fun? Yes. Competitive? Eh, maybe not. If the season ended today, the Twins would be in that last spot with a 63-65 record. The Mariners are 7 games under .500 and just 2.5 games back. For reference, last season the Tigers were in that last spot with a record of 87-75 & the Reds in the NL at 83-79.

Compared to the NL, the Diamondbacks are out of the playoffs at 67-61.

I personally enjoy when deadline sellers such as the Tigers and Rangers are still competing for a Postseason berth. That’s one of the fun and unusual aspects the widened Wild Card has given fans.

Since the MLB increased their Postseason field with three Wild Card teams in 2022, the Reds 83 wins last season is the fewest of any team to ever make it into the Postseason. Over that time, the average third place Wild Card team has won 86.4 games — that’s 7.4 more than the 79 wins that the Orioles are on pace for.

In the modern era, only three MLB teams have ever made the postseason with a losing record:

• 2020 Astros (29-31)

• 2020 Brewers (29-31)

• 1981 Royals (50-53)

2020 was of course the shortened Covid-19 season. For those who do not remember, 1981 was a season shortened by a players’ strike. So, we could very well see the first team under .500 to make the playoffs in a full 162-game season.

The Yankees (71-55) and Red Sox (68-59) are penciled into the top-two spots in the Wild Card, so it’s really just a race for that last spot. Whatever team ends up taking it, will do exactly that — taking it.

Although strength of schedule doesn't get near the attention it used to — I believe it’s worthwhile at this point in the season. For the most part, we know which teams are good and bad, so SOS can actually provide useful input. Here is the teams’ remaining strength of schedules from hardest to easiest:

• Baltimore Orioles (12th)

• Texas Rangers (13th)

• Detroit Tigers (15th)

• Houston Astros (23rd)

• Chicago White Sox (26th)

• Minnesota Twins (27th)

• Toronto Blue Jays (28th)

• Seattle Mariners (29th)

• Cleveland Guardians (30th)

The modeling tool I favor for MLB predictions is the Opta Analyst, which predicts the Rangers to take the last spot with a record of 79-83. Opta’s supercomputer simulates the rest of the schedule daily and factors in just about everything you could think of.

Fangraphs agrees, giving Texas (39.1%) the slight edge over the Twins (37.6%). Interesting, as Minnesota has a much lower percentage according to Opta.

Who Will Make It?

Down the stretch, this race will get a lot of attention — but almost all of these teams are pretenders.

Minnesota has one of the worst bullpens in the entire league (4.69 ERA) and Seattle isn’t far behind them (4.24 ERA). It’s really hard to trust that heading into a playoff push as each game will get more situational down the line. Minnesota also has the second highest batting average with runners in scoring position at .275. Conversely, the Mariners and Guardians have the 2nd and 3rd lowest average with RISP.

Detroit’s bullpen ERA of 3.75 ranks 7th in the MLB. The Tiger’s have also been identified as a huge outlier when it comes to the Pythagorean Theory of wins. Which estimates how many games a team "should" have won based purely on their run differential, rather than their actual win-loss record. Their Pythagorean theorem record is 72-54 compared to their actual record of 61-65. You can view all the standings and learn more about this [here].

Toronto has won 8 of their last 12, playing themselves back into contention. The talent is no question, but can the offense come through? They’ve scored the third fewest runs in the league and have the second lowest OPS (.682).

I like the Tigers or Blue Jays to come out of the pack and take the last spot, but don’t be surprised if the Rangers or Guardians sneak in — we’ll see how it goes! Who do you think it’ll be?

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The slugger got the well deserved call-up to the big leagues after leading all Triple-A players with 34 home runs. He made quite the first impression — demolishing the very first pitch of his first MLB at-bat 449 feet over the center field wall.

But it didn’t stop there. Báez hit another homer in his second at-bat, this time pulling the ball to left field. With this swing, he joined rarefied air — just a handful of players have hit two over the fence in their first game. But that wasn’t good enough, as Báez went to the opposite field with a record-setting swing and hit his third homer of the day.

All three came on different pitches, to different parts of the field. The Cards’ would go on to win 8-4, and gain some ground in the NL Wild Card.

“It’s just unreal, to not only get a hit, but three home runs? It’s crazy.” Báez said after the game.

This performance has many people crowning Joshua Báez with the greatest MLB debut ever — and it got me thinking, who else comes close? Here are some of the greatest MLB debuts in the history of the game.

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This season has given us some great debuts. Multiple players have hit a homer in their first game at the big league level, including: Carson Benge, Munetaka Murakami, JJ Wetherholt, Charles McAdoo, George Lombard Jr. and Felix Reyes. Braden Montgomery joined the club when he hit a walk-off bomb in June. Talk about a dream come true.

Chase DeLauter and Jose Fernandez took it up a notch, hitting TWO homers in their debuts earlier this year. They joined a club of now nine players who have gone yard twice: Báez (2026), DeLauter (2026), Fernandez (2026), Trevor Story (2016), J.P. Arencibia (2010), Mark Quinn (1999), Bert Campaneris (1964), Bob Nieman (1951) and Charlie Reilly (1889).

The best overall debut game among this group was Bert Campaneris. In 1964, the A’s shortstop took Twins’ Hall of Famer, Jim Kaat deep twice. He finished the game 3-4, 3 RBI, BB. Campaneris would go on to win three World Series Championships in his career.

Giants’ Willie McCovey had one of the greatest and unique debuts of all time in 1959. McCovey went 4-4 at the plate with two triples. Only four players have hit two triples in their first game. McCovey didn’t debut until late July yet still won Rookie of the Year. This kick-started his decorated career that was capped off with a Hall of Fame induction in 1986.

In 2016, Aaron Judge went yard in his first at-bat — setting the tone for his career we’ve watched unfold. His teammate, Tyler Austin hit a home run right before Judge stepped to the plate, it was also Austin’s debut. This made them the first, and only teammates to hit back-to-back homers in their first games. Both players would finish with the exact same line: 2-4, HR, 1 RBI.

Going all the way back to the 19th century for the next one. Bumpus Jones threw a no-hitter in his debut for the Reds in 1892. He pitched 9 innings, and allowed one unearned run — but gave up zero hits. Jones only threw 41 2/3 innings in his entire career.

70 years later, Juan Marichal almost became the second pitcher to throw a no-no in their debut. Marchial gave up a hit to Clay Dalrymple in the 7th inning of his debut with the Giants in 1960. He would finish with a complete game, nine inning performance, allowing just one hit and striking out 12.

Astros’ J.R. Richard struck out a record-setting 15 hitters in his first game in 1971. He pitched all nine innings and allowed three runs, the strikeout record still stands today. Richard won an ERA title in 1979 with a 2.71 ERA in 38 starts.

Making your debut is a key storybook piece for all baseball players. They all remember their debut — no matter the level of significance. It’s a symbolic moment for years of work and dedication paying off. When you can have a moment like Joshua Báez did on Saturday, it makes it that much sweeter.

So who has the best debut in MLB history? You make the call.

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It seems like we’re getting more rookies playing every year & there’s a real reason behind it — the Prospect Promotion Incentive. The PPI gives teams an additional draft pick if a rookie on their team wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP or Cy Young voting. Prospects are being developed and pushed faster than ever.

This article’s purpose is to rank the rookie class strictly on their performance so far in 2026. The rankings for future franchise value will be coming later this season.

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1. Kevin McGonigle, 2B, Tigers

McGonigle was one of the best minor league hitters over the past two or three seasons, and he continued swinging the bat well when he made the jump directly to the MLB from Double-A.

McGonigle ranks 4th in the MLB in bWAR, which of course leads all rookies. He also has the 6th highest OBP in the MLB, at .392. He has drawn the most walks among all rookies, leading to a 14.3% walk rate, compared to a 13.5% strikeout rate. Very impressive numbers for a 21-year-old rookie.

He’s been one of the best all-around hitters in the MLB this season while playing solid defense at a premium position. McGonigle’s rookie year has been everything the Tigers could’ve asked for.

2. Munetaka Murakami, 1B, White Sox

Murakami has been the White Sox best off-season signing since Jose Abreu? Jim Thome? Hard to say for sure yet, but we do know that Murakami has next level power in his bat.

Despite missing a good chunk of the season, he’s hit 26 homers, which is tied for 9th most in the MLB. He’s done this in just 82 games, which gives him a pace of 52 home runs for a full season.

Thanks to , here are some Murakami cards to target:

Munetaka Murakami is one of the most collectible rookies in the hobby today. And that’s for good reason. This guy’s bringing some Frank Thomas-like thump down to the south side.

From a baseball card perspective, he checks all the boxes. He’s got light tower power and he’s rapidly become the face of this White Sox rebuild. That last point might be the most important.

Coming into the league at 26, Murakami is unlikely to dethrone Barry Bonds and become the next Home Run King. There just isn’t enough time there. But if this rebuild proves successful, and he remains the face of it, that narrative can be just as powerful for moving card prices. So how much is the hobby valuing the Southside Samurai?

Murakami’s rookie cards have just started coming out in recent Topps and Bowman releases. Because he’s coming from the NPB, there are no earlier prospect cards for this guy.

Let’s start with his 2026 Topps Chrome Refractor, which literally came off the printer two weeks ago. That card in raw condition is currently selling for an average of $18.31. To put it into perspective, Yordan Alvarez, another super slugger and the AL MVP favorite, has his Rookie Refractor selling for around $15.50. There’s always a bit of a new release price bump, so we’ll say these guys are selling close to even right now.

Now, let’s take a look at his autos. His 2026 Bowman Chrome Rookie Auto, inserted into the product as a redemption card, is selling for around $875 right now. And this is with no one having been able to see this card in person yet. For reference, a player like Bobby Witt Jr. has his Topps Chrome Rookie Auto selling for an average of $570.

More than halfway through the season, it looks like the hobby is pricing Murakami as the next face of the White Sox franchise with MVP potential. The way he’s been playing this season, that’s hard to argue with.

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3. JJ Wetherholt, 2B, Cardinals

Wetherholt won the starting job at second base and has been superb in his rookie season for the Cardinals. He’s slashing .246/.349/.383 with 16 homers. Cardinals fans have a lot to look forward to with Wetherholt joining Masyn Winn as one of the best middle infield combinations in the league to go along with Jordan Walker’s breakout.

Wetherholt has the second most outs above average in the MLB this season. He’s likely to win the Gold Glove and the Rookie of the Year in the NL. The Cardinals made the perfect move in parting ways with Brendan Donovan to give room for Wetherholt.

4. Parker Messick, SP, Guardians

Messick has been spectacular on the mount this season for the Guardians. He leads all rookie starters with at least 10 starts in ERA and innings pitched. Messick also leads all rookie pitchers in WAR.

The lefty has proved that he is a legit starter in the MLB with a six pitch mix that keeps hitters guessing. The main pitch of that mix is his four-seamer. Opponents are hitting just .161 on it this season.

5. Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians

DeLauter joins his teammate Parker Messick on the rookie rankings list. DeLauter made his MLB debut in the Wild Card series versus Detroit last season, which shows how high the Guardians are on him.

DeLauter showed out at the beginning of the season, hitting four home runs in his first 3 games of the year.

Although he isn’t as hot as the first series of the year, DeLauter is still slashing .279/.354/.436, and similar to McGonigle, has very impressive plate discipline numbers. Take a look at the below comparison, especially the chase, whiff, K and BB percentile ranks. These three are among the top rookies in the league for a reason and this is a big one.

6. Payton Tolle, SP, Red Sox

Tolle has been the anchor of the Red Sox’ rotation as of late. Tolle is both big in stature and personality, but don’t let that discredit the work he does on the mound.

Through 19 starts, he has a 3.20 ERA. In his latest start, he punched out 14 hitters, the most by a Red Sox since Chris Sale’s 17 in 2019. At 6’6”, Tolle has one of the longest extensions in the league plus a fastball that sits 95-96, making it one of the best heaters in the league & very hard to pick up.

He fits Boston perfectly, and seems to be a fixture in that rotation for years to come after this impressive rookie campaign that became a blessing in surprise. Tolle only got his chance at the MLB level due to Garrett Crochet going on the IL.

7. Sal Stewart, 1B, Reds

Stewart got out to an electrifying start, which was impossible to sustain or he’d be an MVP candidate. But over the course of the season, he proved he’s a rela offensive threat in this league. Stewart has hit 25 home runs this season, behind only Murakami among rookies.

As a prospect, Stewart hit more for average than he did power. So it’s highly encouraging to see him do both at the major league level. He leads the Reds in both HR and RBIs, and behind only Elly De La Cruz in WAR. Stewart has his name in the mix for the NL ROY with JJ Wetherholt.

8. Nolan McLean, SP, Mets

McLean entered the season with a lot of hype, especially after pitching for Team USA in the WBC. And there is a valid reason why — he has some of the best stuff in the game. Tune into a game and you’ll see how his breaking pitches just fall off a cliff.

McLean really turned it up a notch in July, where he recorded a 1.78 ERA in 5 starts. He struck out 35 hitters and went at least 6 innings in every single outing. He leads the Mets in starts, IP and strikeouts. He has a bright future in New York.

9. TJ Rumfield, 1B, Rockies

Rumfield boasts one of the best slash lines among all rookies: .299/.377/.464. He’s been flirting with a .300 batting average all season long, proving that he can be a part of the rebuild in Colorado.

Rumfield joins cast of strong hitters in Colorado: Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, Jake McCarthy. Rumfield flies under the radar because he plays for the Rockies, but don’t discredit the performance he’s put on at the plate this season after being traded from the Yankees.

10. Walbert Unreña, SP, Angels

Ureña has a 2.38 ERA, which is the fourth lowest among rookie starters. He’s shown issues with control which is normal for young pitchers. But at the same time, he’s probably been the Angels best starter this season.

If he can improve his location and ultimately walk less hitters, he has the stuff to be an effective starter for a long time to come — and we’ve seen flashes of it in his rookie year. He pairs a 100 mph fastball with one of the best changeups in the game.

By leaning on expected statistics — xBA, xSLG, xwOBA — alongside various Statcast metrics, we can see where reality and results have drifted apart. That gap is what this report exposes. This season, the Outlier Report has predicted breakouts / regressions at a 87% success rate.

If you are unfamiliar with expected stats, here is a quick breakdown: instead of a results driven outcome, expected stats put a number on each ball a player hits. For example, a ball hit 110 mph in the gap that an outfielder makes a diving catch on is a batting average of .000, but that is an expected batting average of .650 — as we could expect that ball to result in a hit 65% of the time. As time goes on, with more and more at-bats, players get closer to their expected numbers.

Last month we called out Phillies’ Brandon Marsh to underperform. Well, in July he slashed .140/.213/.209. In previous editions we called out Dillon Dinglers’ breakout, Bo Bichette’s impressive June (.321 BA, 5 HR), Jesus Luzardo lowering his ERA by 2.50, and many more. This month is jam packed with five more players I’ve analyzed.

Quick preview on this month’s report: A repeat player, one Yankee, a trade deadline rumored player that could have teams overselling big time, and a very under-the-radar star to buy stock in now. Read about them after the report on July’s predictions.

You can find the previous editions here:

First, a look at last month’s players and how they played:

• Brandon Nimmo — predicted to progress

  In the month of July, he slashed .272/.322/.444 — up from his season lines but not significant. He’s maintaining impressive underlying metrics, and I’d expect to see another uptick in August.

• Bobby Witt Jr. — predicted to progress

  Witt played in just 14 games in July, and is currently on the IL for the first time in his career. In those 14 games, he hit under .200. This was a miss, but clearly he had something bothering him.

• Mookie Betts — predicted to progress

  Mookie had a very disappointing July with a slash line of .205/.267/.313. This has been the worst season at the plate in his career. Another miss here.

• Zack Gelof — predicted to regress

  Gelof played in just five games in July, after an injury took him off the field early on. Although, he recorded just one hit in 19 PA.

• Brandon Marsh — predicted to regress

  Marsh had an abysmal month of July, as predicted. He recorded a shocking slash line of just .140/.213/.209. This month lowered his batting average from .317 to .277.

• Eduardo Rodriguez — predicted to regress

  Rodriguez had a 3.57 ERA in four starts since the July edition was published — bringing his ERA up a tick. He struck out 17 and walked seven. His FIP also jumped up from 3.98 to 4.46.

This month was a little rough compared to May and June. Of course, we nailed the Brandon Marsh regression call, but we missed on Mookie Betts and Bobby Witt. We did still hit on Nimmo and Rodriguez, albeit small movements.

Overall Outlier Report Record:
13 correct predictions, 2 misses, 2 no calls (injuries) — 87% correct

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There are many teams caught between buying and selling. The market landscape is changing everyday and has shifted drastically in the past couple weeks for teams like the Red Sox or Tigers.

So which teams are ready to make a big splash? Are we really going to see Tarik Skubal on the Dodgers? Who’s going to clear house?

Thanks to , we’ve created a list of some top players with predictions on where they might end up. Check out his Substack for some of the best daily baseball content. From Pitcher of the Day reads to player and free agent analysis — he’s always covering the sport in the best ways.

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The MLB’s Top Names to Know This Trade Deadline

Luis Arraez, Padres, 2nd Base / Utility

Possible Teams: Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees

As a free agent before the season, Arraez bet on himself by signing a one-year $12 million deal with the Giants — and it has been worth it. The 29 year-old has had his best season since winning the batting title in 2023.

His batting average of .328 currently ranks 1st among qualified players. The rebound year paired with a failing Giants team that has yet to talk with Arraez about an extension, has made him one of the likeliest players to be moved.

Although he’s never been known for his defense, he’s been superb at second base this year. He’s quite literally gone from being one of the worst in the field to one of the best. In an interview during the All-Star break, Arraez said “One hundred percent I'm staying at second”. This is an important factor to pay attention to when considering potential suitors. Take a look at his run values, specifically fielding from year to year:

Whoever ends up with Arraez knows exactly what they’re going to get: a prefer contact hitter who doesn’t strikeout and consistently eats up pitches. Valuable asset in a lineup during the postseason.

Arraez fits the Rays’ mold perfectly, and would probably be their ideal addition to an already contact-first team. Tampa has platooned the position with Richie Palacios and Ben Williamson — both of which have been below average. A top of the lineup with Arraez, Yandy Diaz & Junior Caminero doesn’t sound too bad.

The question is whether they can outbid the likes of their AL East foes in Boston & New York who are all racing for the division title. Boston has been on a tear in July, flipping their season around. They have just as many questions at second base as any other buyer and would not surprise me with a push for Arraez.

CJ Abrams, Nationals, SS

Possible Teams: Brewers, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees

Abrams is easily the top hitter on the market. The 25 year old is enjoying a breakout season — .289 average, 27 homers and a 147 wRC+ which is the 9th highest in the league. So that makes you wonder, why would the Nationals trade him?

Despite Washington playing better than the past few seasons, they’re unlikely to make the Wild Card and still rebuilding. The offense has been great, but the pitching has been very bad. The Nationals have the 4th highest team ERA at 4.77. They also see shortstop Eli Willits as the franchise’s future. The 18 year-old was drafted 1st overall in 2025 & is currently the 3rd overall prospect by MiLB.

People close to the organization are reporting that the Nationals aren’t shopping Abrams, but are listening to offers. It’s still unclear if he’ll actually be traded. With two more years under contract, and a potential superstar player, the asking price is going to be high.

Only a handful of teams even have enough to meet Washington’s demands — the Brewers, Rays, Yankees & maybe the Red Sox. Milwaukee was engaged in talks in the off-season but it didn’t go far after the sky high asking price. They would probably have to give up number 1 overall prospect Jesús Made.

If Abrams gets dealt, I could realistically see only the Yankees and Brewers making a case for him. But it’s probably more likely that he’ll stay in Washington for the remainder of this season.

Tarik Skubal, Tigers, SP

Possible Teams: Brewers, Dodgers, Rays

The crowned jewel of the trade deadline is the back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. He’s been the talk of the town around the deadline.

With the Tigers seven games under .500, the narrative has become that keeping him on the roster would be irresponsible. But they are just 4.5 games out of first in the AL Central and the Wild Card, so it’s not over.

Although, it is very unlikely that Skubal would re-sign with Detroit after his contract is up this season. Although it’s not 100% guaranteed that Skubal will be traded, it seems likely.

The only suitable teams here are the Brewers, Dodgers, Rays and maybe the Yankees. Although it feels like a two team race between Milwaukee and LA. Two of the best records in the league and the top farm systems. Both National League teams that faced each other last year in the playoffs and know they could again. This will be one of the biggest deadline moves we’ve seen in a long time.

Mason Miller, Padres, CP

Possible Teams: Brewers, Mariners, Phillies, Yankees

Miller has been unbelievable this season & the sweepstakes are on. The best closer in the game has been linked to a few trade rumors, although San Diego seems to be uncertain if they’ll actually be dealing him or not.

The Padres have the lowest ranked farm systems in the MLB according to FanGraphs — they could revamp their prospects by sending Mason Miller off. It’s a hard decision, but probably the right one.

Miller has 28 saves on the season, an ERA of just 0.79 and 85 strikeouts in 45.2 innings of work.

Last season, Miller was traded from the A’s to San Diego for prospect Leo Devries (currently #2 overall). It will take another top prospect like that to get him this year too.

Many teams will check in on Miller — the Yankees and Brewers have reportedly already done so. Both teams have ample prospect depth to acquire him, but would they actually want to? New York is the most realistic landing spot. They were awfully quiet in the offseason and I would expect them to be active at the deadline. It will likely require shortstop George Lombard Jr. (20th overall prospect).

Luke Weaver, RP, Mets

Possible Teams: Mariners, Pirates, Phillies

Outside of Mason Miller, Weaver is the best name on this list for a reliever. He was a player that lost the closing role last season with the Yankees, only to come to the Mets as the set up man. With the struggles still looming over Devin Williams, Weaver took the closer role back. He is a high leverage reliever, something many contending teams will covet. He can cover a multitude of roles.

Weaver has a 1.88 ERA and an 0.83 WHIP. He’s lowered his walk rate, while maintaining the same strikeout rate he had a season ago. He’s also done a great job keeping the ball inside the yard.

Any team seeking back of the bullpen help are going to come calling and he also has another year on his deal. The teams that are best fits are the Mariners, Pirates, and Phillies. Muños has struggled as the closer this year, so the Mariners could give that spot to Weaver. The Pirates have struggled beyond the seventh inning, making fans sweat. Given the Phillies losing Brad Keller, they could use another back end reliever and Weaver would fit like a glove.

Price won’t be cheap, but he’s worth it for an October run.

Jake McCarthy, Rockies, OF

Possible Teams: Astros, Guardians, Phillies, Rangers

The Rockies outfielder has enjoyed a breakout season in 2026. McCarthy is currently slashing .293/.334/.491 and is a top-tier threat on the bases as well, with his sprint speed in the 99th percentile.

McCarthy was acquired via trade in the offseason from the D-Backs, with little news. But he has played himself into headlines — becoming one of the Rockies best players this year. He’s still under team control for two more seasons, making this decision harder for Colorado’s front office.

Despite the improvement in 2026, Colorado is nowhere near competing and the right move is to sell McCarthy now when the stock is high. Not to say that it won’t go higher, but I would be surprised. A breakout at age 28 and the underlying stats show he’s been quite lucky. His teammate, Mickey Moniak is also reported as available on the trade block. It’ll be interesting to see how teams compare these players who are both outfielders, left-handed hitters and 28 years old.

There are a number of buyers who would like to increase their outfield depth. The Astros, Guardians, Phillies and Rangers headline those teams. Houston has crawled their way back into playoff contention and right in the thick of the AL West. We could see at least one of these Rockies outfielders in the AL West come August, if not both.

Luis Garcia Jr., INF, Nationals

Possible Teams: Braves, Padres, Rays

The Nationals have been such a fun story. Nobody expected them to be one of the best offenses in baseball. It’s heavily led by James Wood and CJ Abrams, but Garcia Jr. has done his part to join in on the fun.

He’s having a career year, as he has hit 23 home runs and is slashing .286/.316/.566/.882. While his walk rate is fairly low, but he doesn’t strikeout and doesn’t swing and miss. Garcia Jr is making hard contact and loud contact and what also makes him special is his versatility. He’s mainly a first baseman, but can also play the middle of the infield. Like Curtis Mead, do they capitalize on a career season? Toboni will think about it.

Many teams are needing power bats and middle infield help. The Rays could be a fit if they miss out on Luis Arraez. The Braves if they need more pop. If the Padres become aggressive at the deadline, he could fit there like a glove.

Clay Holmes, Mets, SP

Possible Teams: Cubs, Rays, White Sox, Yankees

The Mets are going to have a few decisions to make at the deadline, one of the biggest being Clay Holmes. He hasn’t pitched since mid-May, but in nine starts this season he’s been dominant, posting a 2.39 ERA.

Holmes recently had his first rehab outing at AAA, where he went 2 1/3 innings. He’ll be returning to the MLB level soon after suffering a broken fibula on a come-backer.

With the Mets being one of the most obvious sellers, and Holmes set to hit free agency, it would be shocking if he wasn’t traded. They might be able to use him to get Luis Robert Jr. off their books, as they’re reportedly “desperate” to off-load him.

I would expect numerous teams to be interested in Holmes to ramp up for the postseason. The obvious teams looking for starters: Cubs and White Sox. But don’t count out some of the bigger buyers like the Yankees, Rays and even the Brewers.

Robbie Ray

Possible Teams: D-Backs, Pirates, Phillies

This one is a sure bet to be moved at the trade deadline. The Giants are well out of it and he is a free agent this upcoming winter. Ray has been one of the better pitchers over the last calendar month with 2.00 ERA. He’s put together a strong month of July.

It’s easy to know what to expect with Ray. He will give you a lot of strikeouts, but he is a walks machine, as he has walked 11.4% of the batters he has faced this season. Not ideal, but a guy who can take the ball every fifth day and give you results.

The Padres are seeking arms and could get something done here. The Phillies reportedly want another starter, but could aim higher. With the Diamondbacks in a playoff push, they could call their division rival for the arm.

Additional Players to Watch

Here are some additional players worth mentioning. Most of these players are currently on the fence with their front office, but if they end up on the market come August 3rd, it could change the landscape.

• Joe Ryan: Premier starter with another year left on contract. Could be second highest arm on the market behind Skubal.

• Hunter Goodman: If the Rockies are willing to trade Goodman, he instantly becomes the best option on the market behind the plate. Yankees would be the top suitors.

• Casey Mize: Mid rotation arm that could get sold off if the Tigers decide to go down that path. Worth watching for both the teams in Chicago and the Brewers.

• Zach Neto: If CJ Abrams isn’t traded, Neto is likely the best shortstop available. The Yankees and Red Sox are both looking here.

Salvy has been the heart and soul of the Royals for over a decade. His infectious smile, leadership and inspiring persona have already left a long-lasting impact in Kansas City. Perez signed with the Royals as a 16 year-old out of Venezuela, then debuted as a 21-year old — and has been the Royals backstop since.

George Brett and Salvador Perez are the two names that have defined the best eras of Royals baseball. Brett recently said in an interview “ I don’t want any of my records to be broken if I’m being honest with you. But he’s [Perez] been a very productive player, and if anybody was going to break it, I’m glad it’s him.”

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After Perez’s 317th homer that tied Brett atop the record books, Royals Manager Matt Quatraro fighting back tears in the post-game presser, said “I love that guy. What he does, the way he goes about it, the passion he plays the game [with], it’s unrivaled,” he said. “The guy’s a Hall of Famer, and you’re getting to witness it.”

Salvy is a nine-time All-Star, five-time Gold Glove winner, five-time Silver Slugger, the 2015 World Series MVP, and the 2024 Roberto Clemente Award winner. He has the 7th most career home runs by a primary catcher and will probably end up being top-five.

Overall, he’s logged 9 straight years of 20+ homers (excluding the covid shortened season). He’s also the MLB’s active caught stealing leader at 33.38% — which ranks 12th highest all-time in modern era.

There isn’t a player more deserving of the praise than Salvy. He had multiple opportunities to leave Kansas City — especially during some trying years — yet he stuck with the franchise that believed in him as a teenager.

The Journey to Home Run 318

The journey to home run number 318 started in August of 2011. Salvy took Max Scherzer deep at Comerica Park in Detroit for his first career homer. The same ballpark he hit number 318. Sometimes, baseball writes the perfect script.

Perez’s most memorable hit came in one of the greatest Postseason games of all time, the 2014 AL Wild Card game. This was before the updated Postseason format, when the Wild Card was only the top two teams that hadn’t won their division. In 2014, it was Kansas City playing host to the Oakland A’s in a one-game winner take all.

The Royals found themselves down four runs in the 7th inning, just a few outs away from a short-lived Postseason appearance. But Kansas City scored three in the 8th and one in the 9th to send it to extras. As a team, they stole SEVEN bases in that game.

It wasn’t until the 12th inning, when Oakland A’s CoCo Crisp hit a two-out RBI single to re-take the lead. In the bottom half of the inning, the Royals would tie it right before Salvador Perez stepped up the plate with two outs. Salvy pulled a slider down the left field line just under the glove of third baseman Josh Donaldson, sending the Royals to the ALDS in walk-off fashion.

The Royals would go on to win a record eight straight Postseason games, sweeping their way to the World Series — but losing in game 7 to Madison Bumgarner the San Francisco Giants.

Perez and the Royals would get back next year and win the World Series over the Mets in 5 games — crowning Salvy as the World Series MVP after hitting .368.

In the years following the Royals short lived dominance, the team changed vastly. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain & Ben Zobrist left in free agency. Alex Gordon & Alcides Escobar retired. But Salvador Perez was and is still there.

Milestone Home Runs

In 2017, Perez hit his 100th career homer in a blow win versus the Padres. After the game he said "It means a lot. Thank God for the opportunity and for the team. Enjoy the moment. It's a great feeling. One hundred homers, that's pretty good."

Four years later, in 2021, Perez hit the 200 mark in a win versus the Guardians in late September. Not only was this career home run 200, but it was also number 48 on the season, tying the franchise record for most in a single season.

2021 was a career year for Salvy. He led the MLB with 48 homers and 121 RBIs. He also set the single-season record for the most home runs by a catcher, until Cal Raleigh’s 60 home runs last season topped his 48.

Home run number 299 and 300 came in the same game in 2025. Number 300 also tallied his 1,000 career RBI, how ridiculous. Two huge career milestones in one swing.

The next milestone long ball came in June of this year, when Perez his his 137th home run at Kauffman Stadium, passing George Brett for the most in the park’s history.

Just a few days ago, on July 22nd, Perez hit his 317th in a win against the Giants. It was a monster shot that landed in the iconic fountains in right center. One fan was so determined to get the ball, he jumped into the fountains. He was promptly arrested and forced to surrender the ball. In an interview after the game, Perez said “Please please please. Police, please, take him out of jail please. If I was him, I would’ve jumped too.”

Finally, Salvy’s 318th homer came in Saturday’s afternoon game at Comerica Park. As I mentioned above, the same place he hit his first ever MLB home run — full circle. He stepped up to the plate in the 7th inning and hit a hanging curveball 105 mph over the left field wall. It was memorable, emotional and symbolic for Salvy and the Royals.

This milestone is a testament to the longevity, consistency, and a career he’s built entirely in Kansas City.

Every one of these milestones has a great story connected to it. It’s really remarkable that baseball can write such a great story.

Perez now has the most home runs at Kauffman Stadium, the most home runs in Royals history, the most multi-home run games in Royals history. He has homered in every ballpark but one (Loan Depot in Miami). He captained the Venezuelan team to the WBC victory.

Salvador Perez is one of three catchers to win five Gold Gloves and hit 300 home runs. Joining Johnny Bench and Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez.

Of the six catchers ahead of Perez on the all-time home run list, only one is not in the Hall of Fame. Of the nine catchers with more career RBI’s than Perez, only one is not in the Hall of Fame.

Only TWO catchers in MLB history have 1000+ RBIs, 300+ Home Runs, 5+ Gold Gloves & 5 Silver Sluggers. Salvador Perez and Pudge Rodriguez.

There are people out there that will die on the hill that he doesn’t belong in Cooperstown. That’s not my decision to make. But I will take in his greatness while I still can — as everyone should. There’s not many players out there as decorated, loyal and of high character as Salvador Perez.

The Power Kings

Salvy is the Home Run King of the Royals. You can read about him and many others in The Power Kings by . As Matt says best “It’s a stroll down memory lane for every franchise, written by someone who loves this stuff as much as you do.” It details each franchises’ all-time leaders in career home runs & single-season records. Highly recommend for baseball lovers!

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The Big 3

There was really no surprise in the top three picks of the draft. It was assumed that Roch Cholowsky, Grady Emerson and Vahn Lackey would be the first three players selected, in that order. There was some talk that Emerson might go 1.1, but ultimately it didn’t come to fruition.

The White Sox took Roch Cholowsky with the first overall pick. Cholowsky was the assumed top player in the draft after his Sophomore season at UCLA where he slashed .353/.480/.710 and hit 23 homers, earning Baseball America’s College Player of the Year. Despite a Junior season that wasn’t as good statistically, he still ended up being the top player. He’s a versatile offensive player and just as good with the glove.

I do think the White Sox success this season was a silent factor into taking Cholowsky over Emerson. When you take a college player with the first overall pick, you’re ultimately expecting that player to be at the MLB level a year from right now.

High school shortstop Grady Emerson was selected by the Rays with the second pick. His senior years stats are ridiculous: .532 average, 50 RBI, 31 stolen bases in just 28 games. He was awarded the Gatorade Male High School Athlete of the Year, awarded to the top athlete across all sports, not just baseball. With every tool graded at least a 55, he’s a true five-tool player with immense potential. I believe, the most potential in this class.

Georgia Tech’s catcher Vahn Lackey, went third overall to the Minnesota Twins. He shot up draft boards this season after hitting .397 with 20 homers, stealing 16 bases and solidifying himself as the best defensive catcher in the nation. He’s the first catcher the Twins have selected with their top pick in a draft since taking Joe Mauer first overall in 2001.

Lack of Pitchers Selected

The biggest theme of this draft was the lack of pitchers selected early on. Showing the premium that has been put on hitters — especially right-handed hitting college players, combined with the injury risk of young pitchers.

This was the first MLB Draft EVER where there was only 1 pitcher selected in the first 15 picks.

That one pitcher was the Giants selection, when they took Jackson Flora from UC Santa Barbara with their 4th overall pick. last year, 4 of the first 6 picks were pitchers.

Front offices across the league are seemingly prioritizing contact hitting early in the draft and avoiding pitchers due to the higher risk that comes with injury — especially with high schoolers.

For years and years, if a high schooler could hit 90 mph on the radar guns, it almost guaranteed you’d see his name on the Draft board. But with more and more players having that ability and the spike in injuries, the landscape is changing.

Studies have shown that pitchers who have Tommy John surgery before 20 years old have less than half the chance of making it to the MLB compared to pitchers who have the surgery later in their careers.

Another important factor weighing in on fewer pitchers selected is the change in the role of a starting pitcher. Even just a decade ago, starters were relied upon much more to eat up innings than they are nowadays. When you have someone who can throw 101 with a frisbee slider waiting in the bullpen, it’s hard not to call on him in the 6th inning in a close game.

There just isn’t as high of a value put on starters right now compare to previous years. That being said, there was some extremely talented pitchers taken in this years draft:

• Giants 4th overall — Jackson Flora (UC Santa Barbara)

  6’5” righty with a fastball that sits 96-97 and touches 100. He pairs it with a sweeper and slider combo. Allowed just a 1.06 ERA in 16 starts with 133 strikeouts. Opponents hit just .155 against him. He’s also a Bay Area native who grew up a Giants fan.

• Rangers 16th overall — Gio Rojas (Stoneman Douglas HS)

  Rojas slipped down the board a bit more than expected. The lefty high schooler has riding fastball that hits 98 on the radar gun. At 6’5” with that velocity as an 18-year-old is impressive.

• Padres 21st overall — Coleman Borthwick (South Walton HS)

  Drafted as a pitcher, but Borthwick is a two-way player who hit .300 for team USA in a world tournament while hitting 99 on the gun. It’ll be interesting to see how San Diego develops him.

Biggest Surprises & Steals

The first shocker came with the Royals selecting outfielder Zion Rose 6th overall. MiLB ranked him 30th in the class — there was seven outfielders alone ranked higher than him. Not very many people had Rose getting picked before Drew Burress or Jacob Lombard.

I thought the Royals would have selected the high school flamethrower Gio Rojas with the 6th pick, as they tend to draft pitchers in the first round. However, Kansas City has not been able to develop the past few pitchers they’ve selected (Asa Lacy, Frank Mozzicato).

The next big surprise was the Mets taking RHP Carson Wiggins from Arkansas with the 27th overall pick. Wiggins has only thrown 14 innings in college with a 6.17 ERA. However, his fastball graded out at 80, the highest possible. Despite the injuries and inexperience, the Mets are willing to take a gamble because he can throw 100 MPH. Goes to show how rare that velocity is.

Another big shocker in the first round was the Red Sox taking Jake Schaffner from North Carolina. Schaffner, a shortstop, spent his last year in Chapel Hill after two years at NDSU. He was ranked the 75th best player in the draft by MiLB. He hit just nine home runs in 171 career college games. It’s an interesting pick so early in the draft. Not to mention, the Red Sox took his UNC teammate, Owen Hull in the 2nd round.

One of the bigger steals of the draft in my opinion is Georgia catcher Daniel Jackson falling to the Rockies at pick 37. Jackson won the Golden Spikes award behind 32 homers, .379 average, and a slugging over .800. As a great power hitter, I really like him in Colorado. Plus their development of Hunter Goodman in the same position is promising for his career.

Jacob Lombard sliding to the Marlins at 14 is a dream come true for GM Gabe Kapler and the rest of the front office. He fell due to swing and miss concerns, but the true shortstop who has elite power and speed combo feels like an absolute steal here.

Impact of College Baseball and NIL

An ever-changing landscape in the NCAA and now, potentially the MLB Draft system, has changed so much in the past few years. With the ability to pay players, the MLB only doing 20 rounds (instead of 40), and the risk of high school picks— college baseball is as attractive as ever.

MLB teams put a lot of money into their farm systems and developing players. But there seems to be a shift in thinking towards this topic. Why not take a player already developed out of college instead of taking on the risk yourself?

Georgia Tech has become a factory for hitters. They set the NCAA BBCOR record this past season for the most runs per game. As a result, six of the nine starters got drafted in the first 10 rounds.

Arkansas is another school in this category. They had 12 total players drafted, after 11 being picked last draft. The CWS champion Oklahoma Sooners had seven total picks.

If I was a GM and had the choice of a high schooler hitter or a player from Georgia Tech or Arkansas, I’d probably go with the guy that’s already been developed by a proven system and coaching staff.

Some stats can lie. A player hitting .220 might deserve a .270 average when you look at his contact quality. Or maybe a .310 hitter that’s one slump away from being league average.

By leaning on expected statistics — xBA, xSLG, xwOBA — alongside various Statcast metrics, we can see where reality and results have drifted apart. That gap is what this report exposes.

You can find May and June edition’s here:

First, a look at last months players’ Report Card:

Last month, the Outlier Series predicted Dingler’s breakout, Bichette’s improvement at the plate and Christian Yelich’s disappointing month. This edition has six more players that follow similar trends these ones did, read below:

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Welcome to the newest edition of my Sandlot Stories! This series celebrates the moments, history, and oddities that make baseball so unique — you can explore the full series [here].

For more than 150 years, America’s pastime has been intertwined with America’s birthday. From soldiers playing games during the Civil War to today’s all-day MLB slate, generations of Americans have made baseball part of their Fourth of July traditions.

Today, Americans are celebrating our country’s 250th birthday in all the classic ways: hanging out by the lake, spending time with family, grilling hot dogs and burgers, and capping the night with fireworks. And somewhere in the middle of it all, baseball is there — on the TV in the background, or in a Wiffle ball game breaking out in the backyard.

There’s no better day on the calendar to watch baseball. This is the story of how the game and the Fourth became inseparable — and the greatest moments the sport has ever given us on America’s birthday.

The Birth of Baseball on the 4th

“The number of base-ball matches advertised for the Fourth of July can be counted by the hundred. Dozens of clubs will make out-of-town visits,” The Brooklyn Union reported on July 3, 1867.

Before professional baseball leagues had even taken shape, Americans spent the national holiday playing or watching the sport. Local club and league teams would travel to play each other annually on the Fourth.

In 1862, a Union physician in the Civil War, Charles Carroll Gray recorded in his diary, that Union POWs celebrated July 4th “with music, reading of the Declaration of Independence, and sack and foot races in the afternoon, and also a baseball game.”

During the early years of the sport, baseball was mainly limited to the northeastern part of the country, specifically in New York City. The Civil War forced people from all classes and geographical locations to converse, which played a major part in spreading the sport.

Even after the war was over, soldiers returned home with a newfound love for baseball and it quickly spread from state to state.

The Formation of Professional Teams

Shortly after the war, the first professional baseball league was formed. On July 4th, 1871, the White Stockings (now the Cubs) played the Rockford Forest Citys while the Philadelphia Athletics beat the Cleveland Forest Citys 22–9. This started the long tradition of professional baseball being played on the 4th of July.

These days, we see double headers in the MLB only as a makeup game for a rain out. But during the 1800s and 1900s, teams played annual double headers on the 4th of July — which became a big hit. The Red Sox would always square off against the Yankees, the Dodgers and Giants even had a home and home double header one year.

For fans, it was a big event. You would get admission to both games with one ticket — spending your entire holiday at the ballpark, indulging into festivities and celebrations.

This time period (1870-1960), included many memorable moments:

• 1899: John Mcgraw became the first player to steal 2nd, 3rd and home in the same inning.

• 1909: Baseball’s first official fireworks show was held after the Pittsburgh Pirates played a double header at Forbes Field.

• 1932: Yankees catcher, Bill Dickey landed a right hook that knocked out Senators’ Carl Reynolds, and broke his jaw. Dickey was fined $1000.

But none more memorable, impactful and longer-lasting than Lou Gehrig’s iconic “Luckiest Man” farewell speech in 1939. He stepped up to home plate in front of 60,000+ fans at Yankee Stadium to deliver the speech that would formally announce his retirement as a player after being diagnosed with ALS.

“For the past two weeks you have been reading about a bad break. Yet today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth.”

Due to players and owners complaints, the double header tradition on the 4th ended in the late 60s — but baseball was still played on the holiday with the normal festivities and fireworks.

We’ve witnessed some legendary moments on the Fourth. In 1980, Nolan Ryan got his 3,000 strikeout. Four years later, Phil Niekro also achieved the same milestone. They’re two of only 20 pitchers have ever done so.

On July 4th in 1983, Yankees’ lefty, Dave Righetti became the first and only player to throw a no-hitter on the holiday. He dominated the Red Sox lineup and ended the game by striking out Wade Boggs.

Just two years later, in 1985, we saw the longest game in 4th of July history. The Mets and Braves squared off in a 19-inning marathon that didn’t get over until 4 a.m. with the Mets winning by a score of 16-13. The Braves still set off all the fireworks, causing numerous calls to the police.

The Sandlot provides one of the best representations of the sport and holiday.

Modern Times

Nowadays, baseball is as much a part of the national holiday as ever before. Fans across the country attend games as their celebration. Teams hold festivities and large scale firework shows after the games. You can’t ever go wrong with spending the day at the ballpark.

Starting in the early 2000’s teams started adding American flags and colors to their uniforms. Each year, teams get a custom hat and jersey combination with stars and stripes or a design alike.

From actual sandlot games played by war prisoners, to Lou Gehrig’s famous speech to a the modern day celebrations. Baseball has been there through it all, and it will always be.

This year, all 30 MLB teams are slated to play on the 4th of July, plus the All-Star selection show will be televised live. There may not be a no-hitter, or a 3,000 strikeout, but the passion and love for our country will still be there in each stadium.

Are you going to be at a game today?

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Check out my most recent Sandlot Stories article:

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Now, at the end of June…

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The team with the leagues’ lowest barrel rate, lowest hard-hit rate and fourt…

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Some stats can lie. A player hitting .220 might deserve a .270 average when you look at his contact quality. Or maybe a .310 hitter that’s one week away from being league average.

By leaning on expected statistics — xBA, xSLG, xwOBA — alongside various Statcast metrics, we can see where reality and results have drifted apart. That gap is what this report exposes.

You can find May’s edition here:

First, a look at last months players and how they have performed (as of 6/3):

Players identified to progress:

- Dillion Dinlger: Dingler was my top candidate to progress. His slashline saw an uptick but nothing too significant aside from six home runs in the last three weeks. He remains on this months report as the only repeat player.

- Ketel Marte: Marte’s average moved from .210 → .259. He doubled his home run total, bringing it to 10 and is back to his normal All-Star self, as predicted.

- Travis Bazzana: Bazzana’s batting average jumped almost 100 points from May’s article — up from .191, now sitting at .292. His bWAR has surpassed 1 and he’s found his groove at the plate. It came quicker than I had expected, but Bazzana’s numbers have improved across the board.

- Jesus Luzardo: ERA went from 5.98 → 4.30 — Luzardo recorded three straight quality starts in May and has allowed just four earned runs in his last four starts.

Players identified to regress:

- Ozzie Albies: Slashline decreased from .314/.385/.519 to .280/.335/.436. Since May’s article, Albies has been limited to a .208 average and totaled just two home runs in the month — taking a big step back.

- Mickey Moniak: Moniak is on the 10 day-IL with an ankle injury, and hasn’t seen action since May 21st. The injury might’ve led to some regression. April slash: .315/.361/.652 → May: .230/.299/.541. His OPS has fallen 174 points and he hit just one HR since the May edition was published.

So, this makes it six-for-six. You can get access to the next players I have studied for these breakouts or fall-throughs.

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There’s a common saying, “You can…

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Some stats can lie. A player hitting .220 might deserve a .270 average when you look at his contact quality. Or maybe a .340 hitter that’s one week away from being league average.

By leaning on expected statistics — xBA, xSLG, xwOBA — alongside various Statcast metrics, we can see where reality and results have drifted apart. That gap is what this report exposes.

Dillion Dingler, C, Tigers

Dillon Dingler has had a solid start to the year, but the underlying numbers suggest there's another gear. His .231 batting average ranks 121st in the league — 68 points below his xAVG of .299, which ranks T-18th. That 68-point gap is the 8th largest discrepancy in MLB.

The 71 point gap between wOBA and xwOBA is the 5th largest in the league. All three of his expected metrics (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) are in the top 5% of the MLB. These stats alone would tell us that Dingler is due for an uptick in production — but added together with the batted ball profile, and this gets even more convincing.

Dingler’s barrel rate (14.6%) and hard-hit rate (49.5%) both fall into the 86th percentile. His barrel per plate appearance rate of 10.4% is just behind Munetaka Murakami. His BABIP is T-27th lowest, yet another indicator of bad luck.

His plate discipline makes him a tough out every at-bat. Not to mention the value he brings defensively — reigning AL Gold Glove winner with a current fielding run value in the 97th percentile. I’m buying Dillion Dingler stock for the rest of the year.

Get him in fantasy, trade for him while the stock is low.

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Sandlot Stories are back! This series celebrates the moments, history, and oddities that make baseball so unique — you can explore the full series [here].

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