Importantly, I believe both of these projections are conservative. Based on the current data and momentum, I would view the numbers below as a floor rather than a ceiling, with room for both releases to outperform these estimates.

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Beware of scams below.

If you would still like to talk to me on twitter my back up is @theegrandetop10!

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The funny part is that every release week turns fans into forensic accountants. Suddenly everyone’s refreshing timelines, building spreadsheets, and acting like they personally work in Luminate’s fraud department. “I think they filtered 8.2%!” “No, it’ll be 17.4%!” “Actually, my cousin’s roommate’s dog works at Billboard…”

The truth? Nobody outside the official process knows the exact percentage until the first/final numbers are certified.

Using yesterday’s 102K+ unfiltered pre-order total as an example:

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“How much has Ariana actually sold, and where do you think she’ll debut?”

Now, I can finally answer it. If you use my numbers please cite me. Would love to comment and support.

Across every major retailer, including Ariana’s webstore, Amazon, Target, independent record stores, Urban Outfitters, iTunes, and more, Ariana will have already accumulated by the end of the day…

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Nobody believes she’s done touring. And honestly? Neither do I.

Now before someone replies with “There’s no official announcement,” yes, I know. I can read. But pop stars have practically turned teasing projects into an Olympic sport, and Sabrina Carpenter may have just earned the gold medal.

Here’s why I think another tour announcement isn’t just possible…it’s lurking around the corner within the next couple of months waiting to destroy our bank accounts. There have been five very strong pieces that indicate a tour announcement is coming.

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Right now, the biggest obstacle standing between Ariana Grande and an 11th No. 1 is “Choosin Texas.” The country smash has been putting up massive numbers, but here’s the interesting part: its current point total is remarkably similar to where “hate that i made you love me” was when it debuted.

If that sounds familiar, it should.

When “hate that i made you love me” launched, it needed just about everything to go right. Strong streaming? Check. Radio support? Check. Digital sales? Check. Fan enthusiasm? Absolutely. It wasn’t enough to be a good song—it had to win every category it could.

That’s the blueprint again.

For Ariana’s next single from petal to reach No. 1, two things will likely need to happen:

• “Choosin Texas” has to begin its natural decline. No song stays at its peak forever, even the biggest hits.

• Ariana’s second single needs broad commercial appeal. Think a song that instantly clicks with casual listeners, earns quick radio adds, performs well on streaming, and gets people buying and talking.

In other words, the next single can’t just be a fan favorite—it needs to become everyone’s favorite.

The good news? Ariana has been here before.

Throughout her career, she’s repeatedly turned the “right” single into a chart monster, whether through irresistible hooks, viral moments, or simply releasing a song people couldn’t stop playing. If petal delivers another undeniable hit, history suggests the stars can align once again.

So… can Ariana earn an 11th No. 1? Read the answer below.

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SOUR — Week 1 (tracking week ending May 27, 2021)

SOUR debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with 295,000 equivalent album units earned in the U.S. — the biggest sales week of 2021 at that point, outselling the previous record-holder for biggest first week of the year, Fearless (Taylor’s Version), which had sold 291,000 units in April.

Breaking that 295K down: streaming equivalent album units (SEA) comprised 218,000 of that figure — the second-largest streaming week ever for a non-R&B/hip-hop album at the time. That 218K SEA translated to 300.73 million on-demand streams of the album’s 11 tracks. On the pure sales side, SOUR earned close to 70,000 traditional album sales in its first week — though it’s worth noting vinyl wasn’t available yet. The vinyl edition didn’t drop until August 20, 2021, so those 70K pure were essentially all CDs, cassettes, and digital album downloads. Track equivalent albums (TEA) rounded out the remaining units.

One important asterisk: SOUR was initially released via streamers and on CD, cassette, and digital download on May 21, but did not hit vinyl until August. When the vinyl finally arrived, it moved 76,000 copies in a single week alone — giving SOUR a massive second wind that sent it back to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 for a fifth time.

GUTS — Week 1 (tracking week ending September 14, 2023)

GUTS debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 earning 302,000 album-equivalent units — including 150,000 in pure album sales — approximately 7,000 more units than her debut.

The pure sales number is where GUTS absolutely demolished SOUR’s original debut. Album sales comprised 150,000 — powered by 94,000 in vinyl sales, the seventh-largest week for a vinyl album since Luminate began electronically tracking sales in 1991. The remainder of that 150K came from CDs, cassettes, and digital downloads, with Olivia having flooded the market with multiple variants, colors, and exclusive bundles. On the streaming side, SEA units comprised 151,000, equaling 199.59 million on-demand official streams of the 12 songs — the sixth-largest debut streaming week of 2023. Track equivalent albums (TEA) added 1,000 on top.

Head to head

The headline number is close — 295K vs. 302K total — but the composition of those weeks is radically different. SOUR was a streaming juggernaut that leaned almost entirely on 218K SEA units, with pure sales still modest because vinyl didn’t exist yet. GUTS flipped the script: 150K in pure sales (more than double SOUR’s debut pure tally) against 151K in SEA. Essentially, by 2023 Olivia had cultivated one of the most purchase-committed fanbases in pop — people were buying the pink variant and the blue variant and the cassette, and the album still streamed over 199 million times on top of all that. The visual really tells the story. SOUR’s bar is almost entirely teal — a streaming-era debut album leaning entirely on its 300 million streams because the vinyl hadn’t been manufactured yet. GUTS’s bar is nearly a perfect 50/50 split, a testament to two years of Olivia building one of the most physically-invested fanbases in modern pop. Both albums debuted at No. 1. Both are generational. They just got there completely differently.

The visual really tells the story. SOUR's bar is almost entirely teal — a streaming-era debut album leaning entirely on its 300 million streams because the vinyl hadn't been manufactured yet. GUTS's bar is nearly a perfect 50/50 split, a testament to two years of Olivia building one of the most physically-invested fanbases in modern pop. Both albums debuted at No. 1. Both are generational. They just got there completely differently.

So where will ‘you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love’ end up? Read below.

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“hate that i made you love me” bounded into No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, becoming Grande’s milestone 10th career leader on the chart. Ten. A perfect, round, completely unhinged number that puts her in a rarefied club of artists who have genuinely bent pop music to their will. She ties for the 10th-most No. 1s over the chart’s entire history. The song dropped May 29, and in a little over a week, it had climbed atop the highest mountain in American music. Not bad for a woman who, according to the internet, looked different in 2022.

But here’s the thing — this No. 1 didn’t just happen. It was built. Brick by brick, version by version, and, if you were watching the iTunes charts at 11 PM on a Thursday night like some of us were, play by nerve-wracking play.

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• a capella version

• instrumental version

• live from rehearsal version

• four regular single versions

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