Welcome to our pre-season preview/birthday episode of The Macklin Years Podcast!

Apologies for the long delay in episodes — between busy end-of-summer schedules and pervasive wildfire smoke wreaking havoc on Joseph’s vocal cords, it has been difficult to find a good time to record.

Before we jump in, a heartfelt thank you to the thousands of Sharks fans who made last month’s interview with Jason Demers our most-downloaded episode ever. And of course, thank you to JD!

In this latest episode — and our last before San Jose’s prospects take the ice at the Rookie Faceoff on September 12 — Joseph and Ty discuss a few key developments since we last spoke. Ty gives his perspective on captain’s skates and why they’re so important — especially for veteran additions. Then, we dissect Macklin Celebrini’s $94M extension. How does it match up with our early summer expectations? We also share our theories as to why he didn’t take an even bigger discount.

Next, we talk about Collin Graf’s new contract and why it’s a win/win for player and team. We also touch on Will Smith’s contract situation, and talk about why we don’t think an extension is coming before the season starts. Finally, we address the Connor Hellebuyck rumors and discuss whether or not it makes sense for the Sharks to check in on the three-time Vezina winner.

But the main event in this week’s episode is our player-by-player season preview. Ty and Joseph run through the entire projected roster and share their expectations for the coming season. (For a moment, it will seem like we forgot about Dmitry Orlov and Michael Kesselring — but don’t worry, we figure it out before it’s too late.) Joseph sprinkles in a few pieces of insight from a recent fishing trip with Portland Winterhawks GM and President Mike Johnston.

We’ll be back the week of September 14 with our impressions of the Rookie Faceoff. Thanks for tuning in!

There’s an old saying in Silicon Valley, with which many Sharks fans are undoubtedly familiar:

“You don’t get fired for buying IBM.”

For the uninitiated, the meaning is simple. Nobody is ever faulted for choosing a trusted option. It might not be the most cutting-edge thing on the market, or the most cost-effective. But it’s proven. It’s consistent. It’s a decision you can justify to your boss.

Throughout his two-year tenure as San Jose’s head coach, Ryan Warsofsky has largely lived by this same principle. In his version of the analogy, IBM is an established veteran player, one specifically acquired by management to insulate Macklin Celebrini and a young, developing core.

It’s worked, too. Celebrini is ahead of schedule. By extension, so are the Sharks. GM Mike Grier deserves a lot of love for that, but let’s be crystal clear — so does Warsofsky.

Am I giving him credit for Celebrini’s ascension to superstardom? Not really, no. Celebrini was always going to become the player he is today. But does he become that player in under two years if intelligent personnel decisions aren’t being made around him? Does he have an MVP-caliber sophomore season if the right developmental infrastructure and teammates and personalities aren’t all in place? If Filip Bystedt takes a regular shift on the fourth line last season instead of Ryan Reaves? I seriously doubt it.

But the NHL is a “what have you done for me lately” league, and this is now a team with legitimate playoff expectations. Grier has assembled an expensive, heavily-augmented roster designed to take the next step. For Warsofsky, in the final year of his contract, the safe road is no longer safe. Showing deference and preference to established veterans, especially if it doesn’t help his team win games, isn’t justifiable as a developmental necessity.

The Celebrini Effect

Yesterday, Celebrini’s success was a feather in Warsofsky’s cap. Today, it’s the root of newly-minted expectation and the anxiety that inevitably manifests. A player of Celebrini’s caliber is an enviable asset for a coach, when things are going well. When they’re not, it’s a serious liability. Just ask the six head coaches Connor McDavid has had in 11 NHL seasons.

Celebrini’s five-year extension is a ticking clock, regardless of what player or management might say in public. Warsofsky will get exactly one chance to show he’s capable of guiding a playoff-caliber roster to the actual playoffs. There’s a reason Grier hasn’t extended his young bench boss yet. If Warsofsky isn’t up to the task, parting ways will be as simple as a handshake at season’s end. No salary owed, no hard feelings. Better luck elsewhere.

That puts a lot of pressure on San Jose’s third-year head coach. Warsofsky’s safest bet, as it would be for any coach with a generational talent on the roster, is to set Celebrini up for maximum success. The players that make the team, and the way they line up on opening night, will therefore be influenced by Celebrini as much as anyone on the coaching staff.

You don’t have to be a body language expert to have noticed that San Jose’s young phenom was often frustrated by the lack of talent around him last season. It was particularly apparent after the Olympic break, when Celebrini returned from nearly three weeks competing alongside the world’s greatest players. There wasn’t nearly enough talent on last year’s roster to maximize Celebrini’s impact. It seems like a wild thing to assert in the face of his 115-point output, but it’s true.

Grier went out and addressed the team’s porous defense at a foundational level with the additions of Darnell Nurse, Jacob Trouba and Michael Kesselring. He added a missing element of size and scoring pop to the forward corps with Mason Marchment. But none of those players, as much as they make the team better, offers elite skill. Grier expects that deficit to be addressed in-house. He hasn’t built the deepest prospect pool of the salary-cap era to watch his collection gather dust on a shelf.

Grier has given Warsofsky the pieces of a playoff team, but assembly is now the latter’s job. How he chooses to utilize and deploy those pieces will determine this group’s ultimate ceiling. Should Grier and ownership deem that ceiling too low, Warsofsky will feel the pinch first. If he wants to stay employed beyond the current campaign, he’ll have to ice a roster that gives his team its best chance to win. He likely cannot do that without relying heavily on young, relatively unproven players. When developing prospects inevitably outperform their veteran counterparts, Warsofsky will have to fight his natural inclination toward experience over skill.

But will he?

A significant and vocal contingent of fans have been unhappy with Warsofsky’s player usage and deployment, particularly last season. Many of those critiques have been warranted — particularly when the Sharks struggled after the Olympic break last season. The team had over-performed to that point, but had one of the weakest remaining schedules in the league. They should have cruised into the playoffs, not missed by four points. Warsofsky often seemed uncertain of what to do when the wheels came off, and largely defaulted to underperforming veterans in critical moments. It didn’t work.

Avoiding that outcome this year will require Warsofsky to strike a better balance between reliability and upside than he has achieved thus far. He needs to lean less on his veteran role players, and more on his young, high-end skill. That’s where the requisite infusion of talent will come from.

But let’s clarify something critical. Those young players have to outperform the veterans by Warsofsky’s standards. Not by ours, not by the media’s. His own. That outlook might not align with the public perception or fan sentiment. Such is life.

Warsofsky is, after all, an NHL head coach. He is an expert in his craft, and he has insight the rest of us do not. I’ve been around hockey long enough to know that “intangibles” are only intangible to outsiders. Which, of course, is almost everyone. But to the people in the room, the contributions each player brings to the table are easily quantifiable.

For fans and analysts, it’s much simpler to quantify skill, to evaluate elements that can be measured by statistics and data. Coaches rely on an entirely different set of criteria at ice level. They value experience and effort. But most of all, they value consistency. That’s just human nature. Consistency might be the highest-value human trait in existence. People who are consistent inspire loyalty. People who are erratic inspire distrust. Predictability makes us feel safe, even when it’s not perfect.

Hockey players are not exempt from this dynamic. Coaches like Warsofsky live by it, which brings us full circle to the old IBM analogy up top: Nobody can be faulted when something does exactly what it’s expected to do.

It’s up to the more skilled players on this roster, and at lower levels in the organization, to earn that level of trust. They can’t just be better players, they need to ingratiate themselves to the coaching staff by being as consistent and predictable as the proven veterans they hope to displace. Otherwise, it becomes very easy for a young coach like Warsofsky to convince himself that a known quantity with a low ceiling beats a wildcard with a high one.

In Warsofsky’s defense, he’s elevated young players who have already accomplished the task. Collin Graf and Igor Chernyshov pushed young veterans like Ty Dellandrea and Philipp Kurashev out of the lineup, and established contributors like Tyler Toffoli out of the top six. Celebrini led the team in ice time as a 19-year-old. Sam Dickinson, for all the complaints about his usage last season, retained his roster spot all year while veteran Nick Leddy was waived and reassigned. There’s precedent, which is often glossed over by Warsofsky’s toughest critics.

Still, Warsofsky needs to give his younger players more and continued opportunities to establish trust. They can’t prove they’re capable of handling 18 minutes a night when they’re averaging 12. They can’t become reliable NHLers by toiling away in the minors. They can’t become dynamic offensive contributors from the bench. At a certain point, Warsofsky will have to take a leap of faith and hope he’s rewarded. If he wants to add more skill to his roster, he’ll have to tap it from a tree that’s already on the property.

That’s a much harder job than the one he’s had so far. Late in a one-goal game, it’s a bigger risk to send Michael Misa over the boards than two-time Stanley Cup champion Barclay Goodrow, just like it’s riskier to bet on an upstart solution when you could just buy IBM.

It’s also the only way to meaningfully improve. Whether San Jose’s head coach is up to that challenge will ultimately be borne out by the results on the ice — and determine his future in San Jose.

The last time I was this excited for an NHL season to start, it never happened.

It was August of 2004, the summer before my senior year of high school. The Sharks were fresh off their first conference finals appearance in franchise history, with nearly the entire roster slated to return. The pain of a game six exit to Calgary still felt fresh. Opening night couldn’t come soon enough.

Instead, the owners and players failed to agree on a new collective bargaining agreement and the NHL became the first major pro sport to cancel an entire season. 22 years later, that one still stings.

But there’s no chance of any such shenanigans this season. The league is healthy, owners are enjoying stratospheric club valuations, and the players are making historic amounts of money. A new CBA, already quietly ratified long ago, goes into effect on September 16. There’s nothing left for fans to feel but pure anticipation, and it’s become increasingly difficult to reign in expectation.

And who would want to, anyway? Short of winning it all, moments like these — inflection points that determine the next decade-plus for a franchise — are what we live for as fans. The vibes are good, the team is trending decidedly upward. It’s time to enjoy the ride, to worry less about the details and instead revel in the smug confidence of cheering for a winner.

The gut instinct that something special has started to percolate in San Jose is almost inarticulable to an outsider. Sharks fans get it, inherently. There’s magic in the air. And it’s not just because this team has a generational talent at the head of a playoff-caliber roster, for the first time this decade — although, that certainly helps. The coming season is rife with compelling storylines, both at an individual and team level.

Here are just a few that I’ll be following closely as the 2026-27 campaign begins.

Training camp.

One might look at this year’s projected roster and assume there isn’t much room to be surprised. There are 13 NHL forwards under contract, not including 2026 second overall pick Ivar Stenberg, who is also presumed to make the squad. Five defensemen are already pencilled in, and last year’s goaltending tandem of Alex Nedeljkovic and Yaroslav Askarov is also slated to return. On paper, that leaves just two open slots for San Jose’s plethora of young prospects to win — both on the blue line.

But I’m not sure things will be quite so simple this season. Expectations have arrived. Millions of dollars have been spent. San Jose’s most important piece of both present and future, Macklin Celebrini, has ascended to superstardom. This team has its eye on a playoff spot. Plus, head coach Ryan Warsofsky is on an expiring deal. You can bet he wants to prove he’s worth keeping around for the next phase.

All of these factors combine to create a very different competitive landscape headed into training camp. Roster spots and big minutes will no longer be handed to future stars in the name of development, nor to the veterans brought in to insulate them these past several seasons. This Sharks team is still young up front, but its future stars have grabbed the reigns. They don’t need babysitters, they need an infusion of talent to help them reach another level.

That should make it easier for NHL-ready prospects to earn ice time and opportunity based on merit. Jobs will go the 23 players that give this team its best chance to win. That means no deference to Stenberg if he’s outplayed by Cam Lund or Quentin Musty at camp. That means waiving a veteran like Ty Dellandrea or Adam Gaudette if Filip Bystedt or Ethan Cardwell takes a job by force.

Outside of the battle for roster spots, we’ll also see a very different competition for roles at training camp this year. Draft pedigree will matter less and less as the games matter more. There are jobs to be won, and lost, on every line and every defense pairing. In net, Askarov will be fighting to establish himself as a true number one goaltender, while Nedeljkovic attempts to stave off that inevitability for as long as possible with solid play of his own. Power play, penalty kill — nothing is set in stone.

No matter how it all shakes out, training camp should be a delicious hors d’oeuvre before the main course.

What will Macklin Celebrini do next?

After an astounding sophomore season that saw him nearly double his rookie output of 63 points, Celebrini now sits in rare company among the league’s very best. He has played his way onto a list of comparable players that realistically includes just two other names: Nathan MacKinnon, and Connor McDavid.

What separates these three individuals from other star talents is a simple commonality — they are the league’s most difficult players to defend. Each has a defining quality that allows them to seemingly impose their will against even elite competition.

McDavid’s defining quality is unmatched speed. MacKinnon’s is unparalleled power. Those are quantifiable qualities, at least to some degree. We can measure speed. We can evaluate size and strength.

But Celebrini’s standout quality is more nebulous, which is what makes his ceiling so hard to nail down and why he continues to push past every projection. His differentiator is an unmatched compete level. I have never seen a player so determined to keep the puck when he has it on his stick, nor so hungry to win it back when he doesn’t. Maybe Peter Forsberg, in his absolute prime. But he didn’t play with Celebrini’s dogged pace. San Jose’s young star tries things no other player thinks to try, because he is so supremely confident that he’ll win the puck back if it doesn’t work out.

Celebrini’s highlight-reel goal against Calgary last season was a perfect illustration. He took a pass in stride, mid spin-o-rama, split the defense and slipped in for a breakaway from just inside the blue line. He was moving at top speed, with very little room to maneuver his body into an ideal shooting position. So he didn’t. He got the puck on net, refused to quit on the rebound and got rewarded with a nice bounce. It was the prettiest “ugly” goal you’ll ever see.

That level of supreme and constant focus on the puck is what makes Celebrini so frustrating for NHL defenders. They can poke the puck off of his stick two, three, even four times during a one-on-one confrontation. Celebrini will still leave the interaction with full possession, and room to operate. He almost baits defenders into contact, knowing he’s essentially unbeatable on a 50/50 puck, forces them into a mistake and eventually gains separation.

And unlike MacKinnon, who is not going to get meaningfully more powerful at this stage in his career, or McDavid, whose speed is a constant and has been for over a decade, Celebrini’s standout quality has significant room to grow. He will get faster. He will get stronger. He’ll gain more experience. McDavid and MacKinnon might be able to incrementally improve their standout qualities, year-to-year. But even incremental improvements to Celebrini’s game will have an exponential impact on his ability to do what he does best — compete.

While it would be easy to take the pessimistic view and predict a statistical regression for Celebrini, who will be sharing prime looks and minutes with a much more talented group of teammates this season, I don’t see that happening. Based on the reports and training videos that have circulated among NHL fans this summer, it looks like Celebrini has spent his entire offseason morphing into a modern-day Terminator.

As fans, we’ve been wowed by the young phenom since Day One. But there’s a chance we’ve still only seen him scratch the surface of his capabilities. That notion should terrify every other team in the league — but it’s ours to enjoy.

Better connectivity.

On his YouTube channel, Jason Demers recently released a detailed breakdown of the attributes new additions Jacob Trouba and Darnell Nurse offer on defense.

According to JD’s research, Trouba’s best asset is his ability to complete long, difficult stretch passes. For an offense driven by Celebrini’s pace-pushing style, it’s not just a perfect fit. It’s a must-have, and the Sharks didn’t have it last season. Meanwhile, Nurse uses an active and effective stick to break up plays in neutral ice. That, in turn, feeds transition play — another hallmark of San Jose’s emerging offensive game. Debate the money all you want, both players add an element to the Sharks defense that was missing last season, and that will allow San Jose’s forwards to be on the attack far more often.

Trouba and Nurse also jump into the play quite effectively, both off the rush and the cycle. It’s a quality they share with another of San Jose’s new additions on the blue line, Michael Kesselring. Puck skill was an obvious priority for GM Mike Grier this summer. The only two players returning from last year’s defense corps, Sam Dickinson and Dmitry Orlov, are strong puck movers with good offensive instincts. Training camp hopefuls Luca Cagnoni and Eric Pohlkamp check both boxes, too. A defense that struggled to make an impact with the puck for all of last season is suddenly stacked with competent options.

From the fan perspective, that’s exciting for a few reasons. The obvious? A better defense should mean fewer goals against, and more points in the standings. But what really has me amped is the potential for this remade defense to elevate one of the league’s most tantalizing forward groups.

On paper, this might be the deepest four-line team in the Pacific. But San Jose’s forwards won’t be able to fulfill that potential if they’re not able to attack with consistency. Last year, they couldn’t — largely due to a lack of talent on defense. Stretch passes and quick-up plays were few and far between, eschewed in favor of methodical D-to-D passes or safe chips off the glass. The offense was largely dependent on counter-attack opportunities, manufactured from broken plays. That’s an important weapon to have in the arsenal, but good teams sustain pressure.

With a more trustworthy, skilled defense at the blue line, San Jose’s forwards should feel more comfortable utilizing their defenders as outlets to extend the cycle. That will also enable more shots from distance, create more frequent rebound opportunities and encourage the forwards to play a more interior game.

As thrilling as it has been to watch the early progress of San Jose’s emerging core of elite young talent, we still haven’t seen what they can do with a competent defense advancing the puck. Now, we’ll finally get that chance.

From promise to production.

With the exception of Celebrini, and perhaps Collin Graf, the majority of San Jose’s homegrown pieces are still miles away from their respective ceilings. Igor Chernyshov looks like a surefire top-six forward already, but he’s played just 28 NHL games. Michael Misa has just over a half season under his belt. Will Smith has yet to play a full campaign unmolested by development schedules or injury. Ivar Stenberg hasn’t played a pro game in North America. On defense, we’ve only seen a fraction of what Dickinson can do. Cagnoni and Pohlkamp haven’t even cracked the squad full-time.

Not every player on that list will become a star contributor, or even an everyday NHLer. But the vast majority will. We aren’t talking about an average group of prospects, most are elite talents who have been tormenting their peers since they learned to skate. Eventually, they’ll fulfill their promise at hockey’s highest level. And with players of this caliber, it’s impossible to know when everything is going to click. It could be another season or two for some. For others, it will almost certainly be this year.

Two that fans should observe with a particularly watchful eye are Smith and Misa. These are linchpin pieces, a pair of players whose personal progress will have an outsized effect on the team’s ultimate ceiling this season. If Smith finds another gear, the Sharks will have one of the most dangerous top lines in the league. If Misa solidifies himself as a top-six player, there’s not another team in the west that can compete with San Jose’s depth down the middle.

But they’re not the only ones with the potential to transform this roster from upstart to juggernaut. Pohlkamp or Cagnoni — or even Dickinson —could be running the first power play unit six weeks from now. And on the wing, could there be a surprise 30-goal scorer between Chernyshov, Stenberg and Graf? Perhaps even two?

As much fun as it was to watch Celebrini blossom into a superstar before our very eyes last year, the gap between San Jose’s franchise player and the rest of its roster was downright stark at times. It was particularly obvious post-Olympics, after we’d spent three weeks watching Celebrini become an unstoppable force alongside the NHL’s elite.

The continued development of this next wave, the players 1-3 seasons behind Celebrini’s superhuman timeline, is arguably more important — and should be easier for Sharks fans to simply enjoy. Celebrini’s growth helped drag a miserable, last-place team out of the cellar. But the eventual emergence of Misa, Smith, Stenberg and company will be what truly opens San Jose’s window for contention.

Lack of secondary scoring behind 115-point man Macklin Celebrini was a major storyline for the Sharks last season, but I believe that imbalance was more mirage than any true cause for alarm.

Celebrini took the exponential leap that eventually comes for all elite players in the making. His peers, bound by the rules of human normalcy, are on more traditional development paths. The gap will close, in time.

But how much time? That’s perhaps the most compelling question surrounding this team headed into a pivotal season for the franchise.

San Jose’s remade defense might make for better offseason headlines, given the team’s issues in its own zone these past several seasons. But at the end of the day, we have a pretty good idea of what Mike Grier’s blue line additions will bring to the table, and where the current group’s capabilities top out. Could some of the young players, like Sam Dickinson, Luca Cagnoni, Eric Pohlkamp or even Michael Kesselring, surprise us with exponential growth? Sure. But it’s certainly not the likeliest outcome.

Up front, I think one could very rationally argue that significant growth from at least one of San Jose’s still-developing young guns — Michael Misa, Will Smith, Igor Chernyshov, Ivar Stenberg or Collin Graf — actually is the likeliest outcome.

High floor, higher ceiling

The Sharks have put together one of the most devastatingly talented prospect groups ever assembled. Most are now going into years two or three of their respective NHL careers. They are aging, growing, maturing, putting on muscle, gaining experience, and training against an increasingly difficult level of competitors. There might not be another player of Celebrini’s generational caliber among the group, but there are at least two or three future all-stars on that list. And Celebrini’s own ascension last season proves how quickly an elite young player can graduate from tantalizing promise to consistent production.

But even if the cohort of talented young players around Celebrini remains largely peripheral for another season, chipping in average offense with the occasional streak of high-end play sprinkled throughout, this forward corps is stacked with enough proven, impactful veterans to lighten the load. Mason Marchment. Kiefer Sherwood. Tyler Toffoli. These are players that could end up in third or even fourth line roles if San Jose’s youngsters take the reins right away. But if not? They’re perfectly capable of much more. The trio combined for more than 60 goals last season, despite a down year for Toffoli that saw him battle nagging injuries right out of camp.

The Sharks have a similar insurance policy at center in Alex Wennberg. Either Misa grabs the 2C job this season and pushes Wennberg — who had a career-high 18 goals last season — into the 3C role. Or, Wennberg retains the 2C job and Misa creates match-up issues for the opposition anchoring a dangerous third line.

At 1C, Celebrini is a lock, as is Zach Ostapchuk at fourth line center. Both Ty Dellandrea and Adam Gaudette can fill in as bottom six pivots if required as well. Even without a massive jump from Misa, San Jose has enviable depth at the most important forward position. If he takes a significant step, it immediately becomes one of the deepest center groups in the entire league.

In short, the Sharks might have the best young supporting cast in the NHL and one of its deepest groups of complementary veterans. The only missing element is elite, established talent around Celebrini — a problem the passage of time will solve naturally. Grier has created, to the degree one can, a no-lose situation for his team up front. And he’s put Team Teal in a position to potentially shock the league with explosive offense.

Let’s entertain a few different lineup scenarios, from three different perspectives — the pessimist, the optimist, and the realist.

The Pessimist

The Pessimist assumes nothing but the most modest growth from any of San Jose’s young forwards, and continued regression from Toffoli. Developing players like Misa and Chernyshov play a few more games, but they score at about the same rate as last season. Stenberg gets the kid glove treatment and puts up roughly as many points as Misa did his rookie year. The projected lineup below reflects that lack of growth, and is veteran-heavy in the top six.

Chernyshov can’t keep up with first line responsibilities and minutes on a nightly basis, and Smith fails to make any meaningful improvements to his two-way game. Graf returns to the top line to compensate defensively as a safe but less dynamic option. Without a high-octane second line to rely on for consistent offensive contributions, the coaching staff is once again forced to put together a reliable but low-ceiling second line tasked with grueling shutdown minutes.

Meanwhile, Misa can’t assert himself as a top-six center. Toffoli loses a half-step. The Sharks roll out a talented third line, but one that requires sheltered minutes and advantageous matchups to succeed. Prospects like Bystedt and Cardwell fail to show enough to push veterans like Barclay Goodrow and Ty Dellandrea out of the lineup. Adam Gaudette can’t fully gain the coaching staff’s trust — last year’s 17-goal man is a frequent healthy scratch, greatly reducing the fourth line’s offensive efficacy.

Graf - Celebrini - Smith

Marchment - Wennberg - Sherwood

Chernyshov - Misa - Toffoli

Goodrow - Ostapchuk - Dellandrea

Extras: Stenberg, Gaudette

Injuries notwithstanding, this feels like the darkest possible timeline for San Jose from a development perspective — and it still looks like a playoff-caliber group. The projected top line proved itself perfectly capable of carrying an NHL offense for long stretches of last season. The projected second line is big, heavy, dependable and features three potential 20-goal scorers. The third line boasts elite young skill and three high-end finishers. The fourth line is rugged, detailed and made up of three capable penalty killers. It’s not the ideal lineup construction, but there’s still a lot to like.

The Optimist

The Optimist assumes substantial growth from all of San Jose’s most important young players, and dependable, productive performances from the team’s veterans.

Marchment and Sherwood replicate their production from last season and give the Sharks an intimidating physical presence on both the third and second lines. Chernyshov does the same on the top unit, shows up to camp in great shape and averages 18 minutes a night. Misa wins the 2C job right out of the gate, and Wennberg continues to produce at a 40-50 point rate as 3C. Smith’s game away from the puck evolves. Stenberg makes the opening night roster with ease, and becomes an immediate 50-60 point contributor as a rookie. Heavy competition for fourth-line minutes forces Warsofsky and his staff to routinely ice a unit with more scoring pop.

Chernyshov - Celebrini - Smith

Stenberg - Misa - Marchment

Graf - Wennberg - Sherwood

Gaudette - Ostapchuk - Toffoli

Extras: Goodrow, Dellandrea

With all cylinders firing, that’s as deep a forward lineup as any in the NHL. Three potential point-per-game producers on the top line. Two future stars and a tough, proven veteran riding shotgun to insulate them on the second. An elite shutdown unit with legitimate firepower on the third. And two wingers who scored at a 20-goal pace last season flanking one of the team’s fastest, most physical forwards on the fourth. Plus, a pair of dependable veteran options wait in the wings when called upon. It’s the kind of depth that wins a playoff series (or two).

The Realist

The Realist’s projection falls somewhere in the middle. Perhaps Misa does take the 2C job, but Chernyshov isn’t quite equipped for the physical rigor of top-line minutes. High-effort, low-skill players like Goodrow and Dellandrea get preference on the fourth line over more talented options like Gaudette, but Toffoli is pushed out of the top nine. Stenberg is eased into NHL play alongside Wennberg on the third line.

Graf - Celebrini - Smith

Marchment - Misa - Chernyshov

Stenberg - Wennberg - Sherwood

Goodrow - Ostapchuk - Toffoli

Extras: Dellandrea, Gaudette

The top line might feel a bit safe here — but Graf, with his excellent skating and cerebral two-way game, was arguably the best option on Celebrini’s wing last season. It’s a unit fully capable of producing 100 goals over the course of a full season. Misa and Chernyshov, their chemistry well-documented at the junior level, reunite alongside the massive Marchment, who creates time and space for his two young running mates. The third line is capable of scoring or frustrating an opponent with good speed and a suffocating forecheck. The fourth offers an interesting blend of speed, sandpaper and scoring pop.

My take

In my estimation, the projection of the realist doesn’t fall far from the optimist’s. This looks like a forward group capable of not just getting to the playoffs, but winning a series.

The talent level is there. The winning elements are all present and accounted for — speed, skill, size, veteran savvy, young legs, finishing ability, power play threats, PK specialists, playoff experience and cup winners. The pieces are largely interchangeable, seemingly by design, which should also help insulate this lineup against injury or underperformance.

Including Stenberg, there are 11 forwards on next year’s projected roster with legitimate 20-goal potential. Six have achieved that feat within the last two seasons: Celebrini, Smith, Graf, Marchment, Sherwood and Toffoli. Two others — Wennberg and Gaudette — boast NHL career highs of 18 goals or better. Two more — Misa and Chernyshov — scored at a 20-goal pace last year.

When one considers that no team in the entire NHL had more than seven 20-goal scorers last season — the Stanley Cup-winning Carolina Hurricanes — it really magnifies San Jose’s suddenly deadly depth up front.

This isn’t a hodgepodge of over-the-hill former stars who no longer contribute at a high level. It’s a group made up of skaters largely in or entering their prime years. With a much-improved defense advancing the puck, these Sharks are about to be one of the most dangerous teams in hockey.

With Will Smith virtually guaranteed to occupy Macklin Celebrini’s right flank, there might not be a more coveted role up for grabs at training camp this year than that of first line left wing.

The current Sharks roster features no shortage of options, either.

Offseason addition Mason Marchment could get a look with the top group. So could last year’s trade deadline acquisition, Kiefer Sherwood. He didn’t perform particularly well there in his short post-trade audition, but with the benefit of full health and a full camp, who knows? Tyler Toffoli, just one season removed from a 30-goal campaign, could also reassert his claim with a bounce-back start to the season.

Despite the crowded field, I believe this battle will ultimately come down to two younger candidates — Collin Graf, and Igor Chernyshov.

Graf and Chernyshov both spent ample time on the first line with Celebrini last season. In fact, Chernyshov’s first NHL call-up was necessitated by a significant injury to Smith. With Celebrini’s regular running mate on the shelf, Graf slid into Smith’s role while Chernyshov debuted on the opposite wing. The three were immediately dangerous and dynamic, leaving fans to daydream about the offensive explosion sure to come when the highly-skilled Smith returned and replaced a more workman-like Graf.

A crowded roster and an unfortunate freak injury to Chernyshov delayed that eventuality. When the trio of Chernyshov, Celebrini and Smith finally did take the ice together, they looked good for stretches. And, at times, more dangerous than the Chernyshov, Celebrini and Graf combination.

But without Graf’s elite conditioning and suffocating two-way presence, it wasn’t quite as dependable. Chernyshov, still adjusting to NHL pace, began to show fatigue in the face of first line minutes. And when the games really mattered down the stretch, head coach Ryan Warsofsky once again leaned on Graf as his go-to option alongside Celebrini and Smith.

Now, Graf and Chernyshov will battle it out at training camp for the privilege of lining up next to San Jose’s most dynamic young stars.

Graf vs. Chernyshov

Entering his third full professional season, Graf will look to build on the 21-goal, 46-point sophomore campaign that earned him a new three-year, $12.75M deal this summer. Graf tied with Smith for second among all Sharks with 42 even strength points last season, and led the team with two shorthanded goals. He was one of just three 20-goal scorers on last year’s roster, and was seventh on the team in points per game.

At just 23 years old, Graf might be the most versatile player in the entire organization, well-suited to play on any line and in any situation. His ability to mirror the footwork of opposing defenders makes him arguably the team’s best penalty killer and one of its most relentless forecheckers.

Chernyshov, in his second year of North American pro hockey, projects to break camp with the big club after starting last season with the San Jose Barracuda. In just 28 NHL games last year, the 20-year-old Chernyshov tallied nine goals and 19 points — a 26-goal, 55-point pace over 82 games. Despite playing only a third of his season with the Sharks, Chernyshov ranked top ten on the team in goals, power play goals and power play points. He was tied for fourth on the team in points per game.

Chernyshov might be the team’s best complementary player. His game is simple in all the right ways, but imbued with a level of quickness and creativity that fits like a glove alongside high-end talent. We saw it at the junior level with Michael Misa, in the AHL with Quentin Musty, and in the NHL with Celebrini.

Graf and Chernyshov are capable of occupying entirely different roles, but they also have enough in common to play different versions of the same role. Both offer a simple, honest and trustworthy game with the puck. Both have good straight-line speed and play no-nonsense, north-south hockey that translates well into difficult minutes and perfectly complements Celebrini’s high-tempo counterattack style.

Who has the edge?

Chernyshov has undeniably higher upside. He’s more powerful, and offers superior puck protection abilities. He also possesses higher-end vision and playmaking skills than Graf. While neither he nor Graf is considered a pure sniper, Chernyshov has the size, smarts and skill to score 35-40 goals every year. Graf could certainly flirt with 30 at some point in his career, but seems more likely to settle in as a 20 to 25-goal man on average.

Graf, three years Chernyshov’s senior and now entering his fourth professional season, played three years of NCAA hockey prior to making the jump. As an un-drafted player, Graf had to force his way into the NHL with above average intelligence and an unrelenting work ethic. He simply plays a more mature game than Chernyshov at this point in their respective careers, with more experience to lean on and the physical stamina to handle 18-20 difficult minutes every night.

To his credit, trimming down and getting into better shape appears to have been a top priority for Chernyshov this summer. If he comes into training camp in excellent condition, capable of handling big minutes against the league’s best players, the job is likely his to lose. Chernyshov, unlike Graf, is a natural left wing. He is bigger, stronger and more skilled. With Chernyshov on the top line, it’s a far more imposing group and a more dangerous one with the puck.

But if Chernyshov still needs time to adjust to an everyday NHL role, playing managed minutes a bit further down the lineup, Graf feels like the more likely frontrunner. He could also have the inside track if Smith’s game away from the puck hasn’t measurably improved. Graf’s two-way sensibilities helped compensate for Smith’s defensive and physical deficiencies last season. He could be relied upon to play that part once again.

Either player could also separate himself from the other by simply showing a more deft touch around the net. To fully capitalize on the potential of a dynamic duo like Celebrini and Smith, the pair will need a linemate who can bury not only the grade-A chances, but the B and C chances, too. Both Graf and Chernyshov are capable finishers, though Chernyshov is better at creating his own opportunities and is far more dangerous one-on-one. But Graf has perhaps one of the most underrated shots on the current roster — accurate, surprisingly heavy and unleashed in stride with textbook efficiency. He’s also whip smart, and often in the right place at just the right time.

There’s a compelling case to be made for Graf in the name of lineup balance, too. Graf’s production went down significantly without Celebrini at his side, whereas Chernyshov scored at roughly the same average rate regardless of his linemates. Deploying Graf on the top unit would maximize his production and allow Warsofsky to roll out a very deep, skilled middle six behind Celebrini’s line. Chernyshov also has established chemistry with Misa, who could benefit from a familiar face on his wing as he takes on more minutes and a larger role this season.

Money Talks

There’s an off-ice factor to consider as well, and one that the front office will need to monitor closely as San Jose’s young players become more expensive: Money.

Graf has already signed his second NHL deal, and is under contract at a bargain price for the next three years. The Sharks can staple Graf to Celebrini’s wing for the next few seasons, and his salary won’t budge no matter how productive he is in the role. Chernyshov is still on an entry-level contract, and will be up for an extension next summer. His second deal could be stratospheric if he spends all of next season with a generational talent like Celebrini. That might create a case of too much, too soon for a Sharks team that still needs to worry about second contracts for Smith, Misa and Ivar Stenberg.

While fans and management should ultimately want players like Chernyshov to earn big money, “earn” is the operative word. The Sharks need to be careful about how much they invest in players who succeed next to Celebrini. We know that Graf is a valuable commodity anywhere in an NHL lineup at his current and future price point. We don’t yet know that about Chernyshov, not with certainty. It might make more sense, both from a fiscal and developmental perspective, to see what the talented Russian winger can achieve away from San Jose’s franchise center.

One could make the very same argument for Smith, but that ship has long sailed. He and Celebrini are the dynamic duo of the future, and Smith will be compensated accordingly on his next deal. The Sharks will almost certainly be paying for potential when they extend Smith. That’s the kind of risk a team has to take on a core player. It’s not one they can afford to take on a complementary piece. They’ll need Chernyshov to prove he’s more than that to commit significant dollars and term.

The Sharks’ powerplay certainly wasn’t terrible last season.

The numbers tell us it was firmly middle of the pack, 16th among 32 teams. The eye test showed us its tantalizing promise, giving glimpses into a future that hadn’t fully arrived.

But it wasn’t as good as it should have been, not with a generational talent like Macklin Celebrini conducting the orchestra. To his credit, Celebrini managed 33 powerplay points, good enough for 12th in the entire NHL. But that was nearly twice the output of his next-nearest teammate, Dmitry Orlov, who had just 18.

If the Sharks hope to take another step this season, they’ll have to be as dangerous as they appear to be on paper. That will require turning an average powerplay into a lethal one.

But how? A quick analysis of last year’s powerplay provides the roadmap. Let’s talk about what worked, and what didn’t.

What worked

Zone entries. Macklin Celebrini is a one-man zone entry machine. In my three-plus decades of watching NHL hockey, I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone quite so adept at gaining the offensive zone with full possession. It’s automatic, seemingly every time, and the primary reason San Jose’s powerplay should have been so much scarier than it was last season.

Zone entries are difficult. Shorthanded teams can reliably kill 30-40 seconds simply by clogging the neutral zone and denying the blue line. Not against Celebrini’s Sharks. Getting into the offensive zone and setting up in formation was rarely a problem for San Jose last season, and there’s no reason to think that will change next year. It’s a foundational advantage, and one the Sharks must begin to capitalize on more effectively.

Puck movement. The Sharks had a lot of skill on last year’s powerplay, and it showed in how accurately and efficiently they moved the puck. Between Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund and Alex Wennberg, the first unit featured a number of high-end distributors (perhaps too many, but more on that later). It was often largely perimeter play, but the Sharks retained possession and zone time for long stretches as a result.

Consistent conversion was an issue, which we’ll get into below, but last year’s top powerplay group could really snap the puck around and created some beautiful tic-tac-toe goals with the extra man. Smith, in particular, showed flashes of how dangerous he can be directing traffic from the left dot.

Flash screens. A significant number of San Jose’s powerplay goals last season looked like carbon copies of each other: Celebrini with a seeing-eye shot from midrange, and Wennberg with a drive-by screen to take away the goaltender’s sight lanes at exactly the right moment. It was a formula that worked well for the Sharks, when it worked. In a common trend, even the best attributes of San Jose’s powerplay last season indicated room for improvement. Wennberg’s flash screens were effective, but a stopgap measure necessitated by the lack of a more formidable net front presence.

What didn’t

Long-range shooting. The Sharks rotated a number of defensemen through last year’s top powerplay unit, none considered a true shooting threat from the point. John Klingberg, who played the role of triggerman on the blue line most often, shoots for accuracy, not power. His skating also severely limited his ability to move laterally and find lanes. Eventually, he was replaced by Dmitry Orlov, whose 18 powerplay points didn’t include a single goal.

Shot generation from the blue line was problematic all season long, on the powerplay and at even strength. San Jose’s leading shooter on defense last year was Mario Ferraro, with just 94. For the sake of comparison, Darnell Nurse had 164. Jacob Trouba had 166. Michael Kesselring — who played just 34 games last year, most through injury — still managed 46. At that pace over a full 82 games, he’d have led the Sharks’ defense last season by a comfortable margin.

Interior play. Aside from Wennberg’s clever flash screens, the Sharks lacked a permanent and impactful presence in the slot. Without a player who could go to the net and stay there, the Sharks were often forced to the outside and were rarely able to generate cross-ice chances effectively. For a group that entered the zone and established possession with such ease all season long, San Jose’s powerplay really struggled to generate dangerous opportunities with any true consistency. It was a smaller group, and their relative lack of size was certainly a factor in the team’s ongoing inability to get the puck off the perimeter and into more dangerous areas.

All Swedish, no finish. This joke works a lot better phonetically than it does in print, but it’s far too applicable here to go un-utilized. Last year’s first powerplay unit featured too many pass-first players and lacked natural finishers. It was especially problematic in tight, where the Sharks regularly failed to convert on net mouth scrambles and close-range one-timers. Tyler Toffoli, the most accomplished sniper amongst San Jose’s forward group last season, struggled to score at his customary rate and eventually lost his place on the top unit.

Wennberg, William Eklund, Will Smith, John Klingberg and Dmitry Orlov are all distributors first, and whether by design or not that essentially forced the Sharks to look for one optimal shot — Celebrini, from his preferred position up high. That meant the majority of San Jose’s best scoring opportunities were coming from midrange, which is far from ideal when you have an extra man on the ice. Most powerplay goals are generated within a few feet of the blue paint, when the shorthanded team is outnumbered or loses coverage down low.

Puck recovery. The piece that ties everything together, San Jose’s inability to recover pucks after a failed shot attempt had a trickle-down impact on the way last year’s group performed. The same lack of size that kept San Jose’s play largely to the perimeter also made it difficult to retrieve loose pucks in the slot and corners. It also wasn’t a particularly fast or physical group up front, between Smith, Eklund and Toffoli. Puck recovery requires both quickness and strength.

Without confidence in their ability to regain possession, the Sharks often passed up good shooting opportunities on the man advantage in favor of a grade-A chance that often never materialized. It made players particularly reticent to shoot from distance. Puck recovery, net front presence and long-range shots represent a tightly connected ecosystem within the powerplay structure, and San Jose’s was missing a critical link.

The Blueprint

Given its strengths and weaknesses last year, next season’s group needs to feature more size, more speed, improved finishing ability around the net, and a consistent shooting threat from the point. Those are the missing pieces needed to augment Celebrini’s superhuman puck-lugging capabilities and Smith’s extraterrestrial vision.

Luckily, the Sharks have measurably improved options to deploy this coming campaign. One could even argue it’s an overabundance, which is why finding the right mix won’t be as simple as loading up the top unit with maximum skill. They’ll need to build a group that complements each other’s strengths, and collectively compensates for any weaknesses.

Ultimately, we won’t know which five players will manufacture the best results until regular season games are played. But using the requirements laid out above, we can start to identify which pieces — at least on paper — might fit together best.

First Unit

Marchment - Misa - Smith

Celebrini - Pohlkamp/Kesselring

At some unknown point in the future, the Sharks are going to have to load their most skilled forwards onto a single line. They’ll need a spark in a playoff series that’s not going their way, or a goal late in a critical game. Celebrini, Smith and Misa won’t get regular opportunities to play together at even strength, but they can start to establish familiarity and chemistry on the powerplay. It’s time for this trio to begin building that muscle.

Increased power play time a logical next step in Misa’s development, as he evolves into the point-per-game 2C he’s projected to become. His presence also allows the Sharks to maintain their preferred formation on an offensive zone draw, with Celebrini at the right point. Even as a rookie, Misa’s face-off percentage clocked in at 45.8 — just one percentage point below Alex Wennberg’s 46.8. His speed and puck carrying abilities through the middle of the ice also give the Sharks another zone entry option beyond Celebrini, making the powerplay less predictable and more difficult to defend.

Smith, equal parts elite distributor and shot threat, maintains his preferred position between the left wall and face-off dot, finding soft areas to make cross-ice plays or unleash one timers. Misa and Celebrini provide enough quickness to be relentlessly effective on puck retrievals, particularly when combined with the size and strength of Mason Marchment down low.

Aside from his ability to win corner battles and dig out pucks along the wall, Marchment is an immovable object in front of the net. Forget the flash screens. Marchment, with his enormous 6’5” frame, parks in the high slot and stays put, simultaneously acting as a screen and road block. He doesn’t simply make it tough for the goaltender to see. He also makes it far more difficult for defenders to break up cross-ice plays or clear rebound opportunities, because he’s literally in their way.

Headed into next season, the Sharks suddenly have a multitude of legitimate options at the point — five, perhaps even six defensemen who could make a legitimate case for the opportunity. If Ryan Warsofsky and his staff want to mirror Celebrini’s preferred shooting position from the right side, there are three right-handed defenders on the projected roster with hard, heavy, accurate shots from distance — Jacob Trouba, Michael Kesselring and Eric Pohlkamp. If they want a more traditional quarterback to run the top of the diamond and open up different looks for Celebrini, lefties Darnell Nurse, Sam Dickinson and Luca Cagnoni are all adept at both distribution and finding shot lanes. Nurse and Dickinson can also rifle the puck. And we haven’t even mentioned Orlov, last year’s powerplay points leader on defense.

But with the amount of speedy skill on this unit, and Marchment’s imposing size out front, I like the idea of a mobile right-hander like Pohlkamp or Kesselring unleashing hard shots and jumping into the play with equal vigor. I think it gives the Sharks’ powerplay an extremely dynamic, interchangeable and dangerous look that fits the high-pace, quick-attack system they’re building around Celebrini. It’s also well-balanced, with two players who shoot right and three who shoot left.

Second Unit

Toffoli - Wennberg - Chernyshov

Stenberg - Kesselring/Trouba

Though PP2 might not see much time behind such a formidable top unit, this group features a ton of skill and is intended to parallel the makeup of the first.

Wennberg and Stenberg transport and protect the puck well, again giving the Sharks two strong options on zone entries. Wennberg and Chernyshov both offer enough size to reliably win battles and take up real estate in the slot, and the speed to retrieve pucks. Toffoli and Chernyshov up front gives the group a pair of natural finishers. Stenberg, whose play style closely mimics Celebrini’s and whose patience with the puck made him an elite powerplay distributor against his peers, occupies one point. Kesselring or Trouba unloads heavy shots from the other.

This proposed mix blends the right skill sets and experience levels, but also serves a pair of auxiliary purposes — additional ice time for Toffoli as his even strength role diminishes, and more puck touches in the offensive zone for young Stenberg as he adjusts to NHL pace. Like the top unit, it’s nicely balanced with three righties and two lefties.

There are viable options waiting in the wings, too. Collin Graf and Kiefer Sherwood are both worthy of a look on the man advantage at some point this season. Should a young player like Stenberg or Chernyshov falter, or a veteran like Toffoli begin to regress, Graf and Sherwood will be eager to jump at the opportunity. With so many talented players in healthy competition, San Jose’s powerplay is poised for big improvements.

Much has already been made about San Jose’s glut of top-nine forwards headed into the 2026-27 season. It’s left outside observers, and those of us frantically scribbling hypothetical line combinations on cocktail napkins, wondering how Ryan Warsofsky and his staff will find a logical role for everyone.

Among die-hard fans, that conversation almost immediately extends beyond the NHL roster. If there’s not even enough room for the 14 forwards expected to break camp in October, what does that mean for on-the-cusp youngsters like Filip Bystedt, Quentin Musty and Cam Lund?

Of San Jose’s top forward prospects, these three have been in the organization longer than any. Around them, younger, higher-profile players have made the jump. In turn, those elite young talents created a competitive environment that has raised the bar and attracted a crowd.

Now, these three find themselves at a developmental crossroads. There is no readily apparent path to the exact NHL role each ultimately projects to fill, at least not this season. Barring a trade or major injury, the best they can hope for is spot duty — and they’ll be in direct competition with each other for even that meager privilege.

But are any of them actually “blocked” long term? Or is there still a viable path for all three players to fulfill their promise in teal? I believe the answer to that question varies from player to player.

The Process

The one thing we do know for sure about this crowded forward corps is that it will allow Mike Grier and his staff to do something they like — overcook their prospects. With that as a guiding principle, I did my best to project a realistic but conservative three-year development path for each player.

If we use Collin Graf’s trajectory as a model, the journey from NHL debut to a full-time job is a three-year process. It tends to be a little bit quicker for players who project safely into top-six roles, but that’s usually because they are able to make up for a lack of experience with high-end skill. For prospects on a more traditional development path, as these three appear to be, a three-year runway feels appropriate.

Let’s jump in.

Filip Bystedt

When the Sharks re-signed Alex Wennberg to a three-year extension last spring, many fans assumed that would spell the end of Bystedt’s time in teal. He was probably included in more hypothetical trades this summer than any other player without an NHL game on his resume. Surely, we all assumed, Bystedt was the most valuable and expendable piece to move for help on the blue line.

But Grier’s major summertime moves have come and gone, his roster augmented with three veteran defenders — two acquired via trade. None of it required a change of address or employer for Bystedt, who is expected to center the Barracuda’s top line for a second straight season. It’s a team with serious playoff aspirations, too, and Bystedt is a central feature. He’s needed there, and the big club won’t deprive its top affiliate of his services unless they absolutely must.

Bystedt is overdue for a look at the NHL level, and he’ll get that this season — as an injury replacement. He might get five games, he might get 20. What’s important is that he gets his feet wet, and begins to build a firsthand understanding of what it will take to become a full-time NHLer.

The following season — 2028-29 — Bystedt will have a much easier road to NHL minutes. Both Adam Gaudette and Barclay Goodrow will be off the books, making room for Bystedt to step into a fourth-line role. Sure, he’s a natural center, and the Sharks seem to have the 4C slot locked down for the next four seasons courtesy of Zach Ostapchuk. That’s no major issue. Bystedt, whose development journey has always been a slow burn, can be eased into NHL life on the wing. Again, using Graf’s trajectory as our blueprint, let’s project roughly a half season’s worth of NHL games for Bystedt in 2028-29.

That takes us through to year three, the 2029-30 campaign. Veteran stalwart Tyler Toffoli’s deal expires, as does Ty Dellandrea’s, opening two more roster spots in the bottom six. Bystedt locks down a full-time NHL role as a bottom six winger, his first full season as an everyday player. He’ll get looks up the lineup, perhaps even on the power play, and fill in as a center when injury requires. That should help him prepare to take on the 3C role after Wennberg’s contract ends the following summer.

It’s a somewhat meandering road, and that’s just fine. By 2029-30, the Sharks hope to be a perennially competitive team. They’ll need Bystedt to be more than ready by the time he steps into Wennberg’s ample shoes.

Bystedt will be up for a bridge deal this summer, but with limited NHL experience it should be easy for Grier to lock him up at a reasonable price. He’ll be a homegrown, cost-controlled bottom six option for the team as their top players begin to command larger salaries.

Cam Lund

For Lund, a versatile, jack-of-all trades forward who can line up at center or wing, the path to a full-time role with the Sharks might be even more open and direct than Bystedt’s. Lund plays a heavy, honest game that should suit him well in a lower line role, but also has enough skill and scoring touch to complement a high-end center. If the Sharks need a winger to add scoring pop and physicality in a single package, Lund is far and away the most dependable option among the team’s NHL-ready prospects.

I expect we’ll see Lund more than any other call-up this coming season, and anticipate at least 15-20 NHL games. He feels like the most natural fit to fill in for rugged scoring wingers like Mason Marchment or Kiefer Sherwood if either is on the shelf — a distinct possibility given their shared style of punishing physical play.

The departures of Goodrow and Gaudette next summer open up a permanent place for Lund on the 2028-29 roster as 12th or 13th forward, and he plays close to a full season’s worth of NHL games. The year after, he slides into a full-time role at fourth line right wing, replacing either a departed Toffoli or Dellandrea, and fills in as a scoring option on one of the top three lines when needed.

The Sharks want to build a team deep enough to someday compete for the Stanley Cup. Lund has top-six upside, but projects more safely as a third or even high-end fourth liner on a contending squad. He has the speed, size and physicality to thrive as an overqualified bottom-six option, and the versatility a good team wants from its depth players. Lund will be an important top-nine redundancy to have if one of San Jose’s flashier scoring wingers becomes too expensive to retain.

Like Bystedt, Lund is up for a new deal next summer but has extremely limited negotiating power. It’s not hard to envision a cheap, skilled and heavy fourth line of Bystedt, Ostapchuk and Lund creating major mismatches in a future playoff series.

Quentin Musty

Unquestionably the most skilled of these three prospects, Musty also has the most contentious path in front of him. Unlike Bystedt and Lund, a fourth line role doesn’t make sense for Musty — at least, not for more than a game or two. Musty is a highly-skilled prospect who needs to play with other offensively gifted players to bring his best attributes forward. He’s big, powerful, has an excellent shot and elite vision. But his future as a Shark depends entirely on whether or not he can push another longterm piece out of the top nine.

This year will be Musty’s best opportunity, and perhaps his only one, to do just that. Like Bystedt and Lund, he should get his looks at the NHL level as an injury call-up. Unlike his peers, however, he’s almost certain to be plugged into a top-nine scoring role when that happens. If the Sharks suffer an injury in their bottom-six, Bystedt or Lund is getting the call. If they lose a key offensive contributor, it will be Musty.

The problem? Those call-ups won’t be anything but a temporary tease unless Musty makes himself impossible to send back down. Not just this year, but next year, too. And the year after that. The Sharks have nine top-nine forwards either under contract or team control for at least the next three seasons. The only way for Musty to secure a full time role within that time span is to take it, by force, from someone else.

Lund and Bystedt will face pressure from other bottom-six hopefuls, like Ethan Cardwell and Carson Wetsch, but at least the roles they’re all after will be vacant in a year or two. Musty is in store for no such favors. There’s a chance that an older veteran like Kiefer Sherwood or Mason Marchment could see their play drop off a cliff after another season or two — but it’s not very likely. Both were just signed to matching five-year contracts with the expectation that at least three of those years will be prime, productive seasons.

More likely, Musty’s direct competition for a future with the Sharks lies within his peer group: Igor Chernyshov, Collin Graf, Ivar Stenberg, and Will Smith. Outplaying one of those four so drastically that the organization moves one to make room isn’t an impossible task — but it’s pretty damn close.

That’s why this season is so critical for Musty. It could be his last chance to remain a part of San Jose’s bright future. If Musty fails to make a big splash when opportunity knocks, Grier will probably have to trade him while he still has projectable value.

What we’ve learned

My primary goal here is to dispel a commonly-held fan myth — that prospects are “blocked” if a veteran player currently fills their projected role. Prospect pathways aren’t defined by a team’s current NHL personnel, but rather its anticipated departures.

We need to understand which players will be phased out of the organization over the next two-to-three seasons, and what kind of minutes that will open up for developing players. Do those minutes fit their skill set and help them meet their eventual projection? If the answer is yes, there’s a clear path. If the answer is no, the future is murky.

The coming battle between Alex Wennberg and Michael Misa, who will both be gunning for the role of second line center at training camp next month, looks a little different than some of the others.

Unlike the competition between Eric Pohlkamp and Luca Cagnoni, for example, there is no looming existential threat for the runner-up. Both Misa and Wennberg will be on the opening night NHL roster, as everyday players. Both will line up as middle-six centers behind franchise pivot Macklin Celebrini. This battle will be fought for a role, not a job.

It’s also not a competition that will be limited to training camp. In fact, one could argue it already started last season. Many expected Misa to slowly but surely wrest the 2C job away from Wennberg over the course of the 2025-26 campaign. That didn’t happen, due in part to an early season injury for Misa that slowed his developmental progress. The Sharks were also a more competitive team than anticipated, which made it that much harder for the rookie center to push out a trusted veteran like Wennberg.

Over the season’s second half, however, Misa started to show more frequent glimpses of the blazing speed and stunning skill set that made him a top-two pick in 2025. Wennberg earned a summertime respite from young Misa nipping at his heels. Now, the friendly fight continues.

Misa vs. Wennberg

Both players are acutely aware of their situation, and have been for some time. Wennberg addressed the dynamic between he and Misa during the team’s end-of-season media availability.

“I’m not going to sit back and let him take it over,” Wennberg said of the 2C role. “I’m going to put up the fight as well, because I think that’s what also makes teams become better…And hopefully he’s going to give me a hell of a battle, and hopefully he will beat me, but then I’ll come back even better.”

Eventually ceding the 2C job to Misa not an outcome Wennberg fears, it’s one he hopes for and ultimately expects. He knows that Misa, a second-overall pick in 2025, is on a likely track to NHL stardom. He knows that will mean a reduced role, at least offensively. As long as it’s a result of Misa earning his ice and not Wennberg stumbling out of the gate, the latter will have no issue slotting in as an overqualified 3C. He didn’t sign a three-year extension expecting to average 20+ minutes a night as a playoff team’s second line pivot. He stayed on to be part of a winning club. A developmental leap from Misa will only serve to advance that goal.

But the ultimate result of this particular dogfight, unlike some of the others headed into training camp, might not be entirely within Misa and Wennberg’s control. The way they perform in camp and the preseason will certainly influence head coach Ryan Warsofsky’s preference, but his final decision might come down to a comparatively unrelated factor — deployment.

When roles dictate deployment

Last season, the veteran Wennberg was often hard matched against the opposition’s top line. Why? Because, quite frankly, Warsofsky couldn’t trust his top line in a best-on-best scenario.

That’s not a knock on Celebrini, who is a generational talent, nor Will Smith, who is actively learning the nuances of two-way hockey while the team counts on him to produce primary offense in heavy minutes. But both are still very young, and relatively inexperienced. Smith still has a lot of room to mature physically. Celebrini is still navigating the intricacies of taking high-pressure draws against elite NHL centers. It made sense, at least last year, to make life a bit easier for Celebrini and Smith by tasking Wennberg with the toughest defensive assignments.

To his credit, Wennberg thrived with the additional ice time and responsibility. He had his best season as a Shark and one of the best of his entire career, setting a new personal high with 18 goals and and reaching the 55-point plateau for the first time in 10 seasons. But Wennberg’s deployment created downstream issues for a fast-developing Misa. With the team’s top two centers both averaging over 20 minutes a night, Misa was relegated to less than 13 minutes on average. Without penalty kill or first power play responsibilities, Misa only averaged about two minutes more per game than fourth line center Zach Ostapchuk.

That usage was probably fine for Misa most of last season, navigating a bit of an up-and-down rookie campaign that saw him suit up for three different teams. Down the stretch, however, when Misa’s play was improving tangibly and the team badly needed an offensive spark, it started to become a problem. With his first line playing somewhat sheltered minutes, Warsofsky was forced to continue leaning on Wennberg and finding more ice for Misa proved difficult.

Who has the edge?

This coming season, Sharks fans and management both hope to see significant growth in Smith’s game, particularly off the puck. If he can take another step, it might make Celebrini’s line both dangerous and dependable enough to throw over the boards against other teams’ top units. That would allow Warsofsky to build a more traditionally skilled second line around Misa, while Wennberg would see his usage slide into a more typical middle-six range.

It would be a lot to expect of Misa to take on the 20+ minutes Wennberg played last season. But if both players can contribute 16-17 dependable, productive minutes a night, it will make the Sharks a much more dangerous group up front. Whether or not Warsofsky can utilize his second and third lines that way, however, is going to depend heavily on two-way improvements from his top unit.

The way this all shakes out will have a trickle-down effect on the rest of the roster, and probably determine a lot about how San Jose’s crowded stable of top-nine wingers will line up on opening night. Where players like Igor Chernyshov, Collin Graf, Mason Marchment and Kiefer Sherwood slot into the lineup won’t simply come down to the role they’ve earned, or even their on-ice chemistry with either center. It will be largely determined by the way those centers are deployed, and which wingers are best equipped to play the adjacent roles.

That reality could have a particularly outsized impact on Tyler Toffoli’s job this coming season. If Misa lines up at 3C once again, playing limited minutes and a somewhat sheltered role, stapling a veteran scorer like Toffoli to his wing makes all the sense in the world. But if Misa is playing 18 minutes a night as a clear-cut 2C, Toffoli probably isn’t the right fit at this stage of his career. Nor does he make much sense next to Wennberg in a high-intensity shutdown role on a more traditional third line. Suddenly, Toffoli’s looking at fourth line minutes or the press box.

There’s also the added complication of rookie winger Ivar Stenberg, who many project will begin his NHL career alongside San Jose’s most experienced center. If he has difficulty adjusting and needs to be insulated or sheltered, it could negatively impact Wennberg’s usage at even strength. But if Stenberg steps into the lineup, produces like a top-six forward right away and develops immediate chemistry with his countryman? Wennberg would essentially lock down the 2C job by default.

With so much out of their control, it’s a bit hard to predict which player will emerge as frontrunner. My best guess is that the delineation will remain unclear even as the regular season begins, and may change game-to-game, opponent-by-opponent. But the results of that ongoing battle will shape this year’s forward group, and go a long way toward determining its ultimate upside.

One of the most difficult aspects of fandom, particularly as a team exits the rebuilding phase and begins to fulfill its promise, is watching one of your personal favorites succeed at the expense of another.

It’s an odd dynamic, and can lead to a surprising number of bittersweet moments for a team on the upswing. This phase of the journey feels like it should just be about enjoying the elevator ride after a long stint in the league’s basement. But that’s not how life works as an NHL fan.

The emotional toll is ever-present, and it’s part of what makes fandom a worthwhile endeavor. If you haven’t suffered, after all, what have you earned? (Looking at you, Vegas fans.)

Since Tomas Hertl was traded in early 2024, pain-inducing player departures have been relatively minimal for the San Jose faithful. Up until June of this year, only one true fan favorite had been shown the door in the name of team building, when scoring winger Fabian Zetterlund was shipped to Ottawa for rugged center Zach Ostapchuk at the 2025 trade deadline. And as popular as Zetterlund had become, he wasn’t a longtime staple or a homegrown player.

Everything changed when San Jose won the second overall pick in this year’s draft, and a chance to select elite Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg. He was a player the Sharks couldn’t pass up. He was also one undersized top-six forward too many for an organization with future Stanley Cup designs. In came Stenberg. Out went William Eklund.

Just a few days later, Mike Grier sent one of my personal favorites — Shakir Mukhamadullin — to Edmonton for an obvious upgrade in Darnell Nurse. I’ve always been a believer in Mukhamadullin’s upside, despite his developmental struggles, and would have loved to see him fulfill his promise in San Jose. But I also want the Sharks to get better, and soon. With Nurse in the lineup, it will be.

This dynamic doesn’t just arise when players are traded away, either. Some who remain with the organization will take on more prominent roles and, in turn, push others down the lineup. We all want Michael Misa to develop into a great second-line center, for instance. But Alex Wennberg has plenty of fans, too — and deservedly so.

Between now and the start of training camp, we’ll dig into several of these key internal battles, starting with two of my favorite young players in the entire organization: defensemen Eric Pohlkamp and Luca Cagnoni.

Drafted just nine picks apart in the fourth and fifth rounds of the 2023 NHL entry draft, Cagnoni and Pohlkamp have both consistently outperformed expectations over the past three seasons. Now, they appear to be on a developmental collision course as training camp approaches.

Pohlkamp vs. Cagnoni

Cagnoni spent his D+1 year playing for the Portland Winterhawks, where he put up 90 points as one of the most productive blue liners in all of junior hockey. Despite one remaining year of CHL eligibility, Cagnoni turned pro the following season and set Barracuda franchise records for goals and points by a defenseman. He was also the first defenseman in his draft class to debut at the NHL level, playing six games in 2024-25 and three this past season.

Pohlkamp opened eyes in his D+1 year at Bemidji State with 11 goals and 24 points in 32 games. He then entered the NCAA transfer portal, and was recruited by a powerhouse University of Denver team. With the Pioneers, Pohlkamp scored 35 points in 44 games as a sophomore, then set an NCAA record for goals by a defenseman with 18 last season. He was named a top-three Hobey Baker finalist, won a National Championship and made his pro debut in the AHL playoffs with an assist and six shots on goal.

Both players are expected to compete for meaningful playing time with the Sharks this year, and both deserve that chance. They’ve worked hard, and overcome long odds as undersized, mid-round picks. Now, with one slot in San Jose’s top six seemingly up for grabs, this duo of diminutive defenders will be in fierce competition the moment training camp begins.

The road to a roster spot

Mathematically speaking, there’s room for both to make the squad out of camp. San Jose will carry at least seven defensemen to start the season, and currently have just five pencilled into the opening night lineup. But Cagnoni and Pohlkamp are young, developing players. It will do neither any good to sit and watch NHL games from the press box, when they could be playing 20+ minutes a night in all situations for the Barracuda. Whoever wins the spot out of camp will play a regular NHL shift to start the season, while the other will almost certainly take on the role of number one defenseman for San Jose’s conveniently-located minor league affiliate.

And while Cagnoni and Pohlkamp are very different players, they project to fill a very similar role — at least with this iteration of the San Jose Sharks. I actually anticipate divergent developmental journeys, longer term. For now, however, the path to an NHL job is largely the same. They’ll need to contribute meaningful offense on a blue line without a proven star.

For Cagnoni, that will mean proving himself the best available option to quarterback a Sharks power play that needs to be a lot more dangerous this season. Cagnoni’s vision and uncanny ability to get pucks on net through the narrowest of lanes are his best offensive traits. He uses his superior edge work and lateral skating to walk the blue line and find openings, and I sometimes wonder if his shorter stature actually allows him to see underneath a layered defense in some sort of unique way.

It’s unclear, however, just how open the competition will be for that job. Unlike last season, when the Sharks were forced to choose between an overworked Dmitry Orlov and a deteriorating John Klingberg as their top power play option, there now are a number of qualified veterans to test out in the role. Orlov is still on the roster, and should be asked to do a lot less at even strength with the additions of Nurse and Jacob Trouba — both of whom, it just so happens, also have experience running an NHL power play. Fellow newcomer Michael Kesselring has a bomb of a shot, and the Sharks are incentivized to put him in advantageous positions as he looks to get his own development back on track. Or, the coaching staff could envision power play time as a way for Sam Dickinson to get a few more puck touches as a sophomore player.

There’s no standout option, which is Cagnoni’s saving grace. But there are enough viable candidates for the job that he’ll have to really separate himself from the pack. He won’t have a ton of time to do so, either, with a shortened preseason schedule this year.

Pohlkamp, on the other hand, appears to face a less contentious path. The stocky right hander is older than Cagnoni, more physically imposing and defends better in his own end. He doesn’t have the same high-end vision that Cagnoni brings to the table, but he makes up for it with two other elite assets: his shot, and his instincts.

Pohlkamp’s vaunted slapper from the point is well documented, but he also has a fantastic midrange wrist shot that will beat pro goalies clean. Despite his shooting skill, I believe Pohlkamp’s true talent is timing. His ability to identify where and when to jump into the play — both on the rush and off the cycle — makes him more dangerous at even strength than Cagnoni, especially the way these Sharks are built up front. This is going to be a high-pace, quick-up offense and Pohlkamp fits seamlessly within that kind of system.

Who has the edge?

One could assume Cagnoni has the inside track over Pohlkamp simply because he has two years of pro experience, and has already played a handful of NHL games. The Sharks, however, have shown no real preference for seniority when it comes to developing young players. Igor Chernyshov entered the organization a year later than Quentin Musty. Michael Misa was drafted three years after Filip Bystedt. But Chernyshov and Misa are full-time NHLers, while Musty and Bystedt haven’t even made their respective debuts.

Whichever player performs better will win the job, plain and simple. A close contest might skew toward Cagnoni, the more familiar face to Sharks coaches. But will familiarity be enough to overcome Pohlkamp’s size advantage, or the enticing balance of three right-handers to pair with three lefties?

From my vantage point, it’s a lot easier to envision Pohlkamp lining up next to Dmitry Orlov for 17-18 reliable minutes a night. I’m not convinced this current Sharks defense has the personnel or depth required to insulate a power play specialist, particularly if it requires an aging veteran like Orlov to play on his off side.

At the end of last season, Grier espoused a desire for his defense to be more adept at moving pucks and better at killing plays. Pohlkamp can offer elements of both. And while Pohlkamp certainly has the tools to be an asset on San Jose’s power play, he won’t have to win that job outright to justify a roster spot. Cagnoni will.

And while I believe Cagnoni’s superior vision will make him the better power play quarterback someday, I think Pohlkamp is a better fit for San Jose’s top unit right now. Macklin Celebrini is one-man zone entry machine. Once possession is established, the power play runs through him just above the right circle. Teams have keyed in on that, and are taking away Celebrini’s preferred shooting options. With the right-handed Pohlkamp as a constant and lethal shooting threat from the opposite flank, space will begin to open back up for San Jose’s franchise forward. Or it won’t, and Pohlkamp will make the opposition pay with lasers of his own.

Regardless of the outcome, this inevitable battle between Cagnoni and Pohlkamp should be one of training camp’s most intriguing storylines to follow.

It’s officially August, which means we’ve entered our final full month of the NHL offseason. Yes, I’m painfully aware that there are no regular season games in September, either. But the Rookie Faceoff, the official start of training camp and four preseason games will do plenty to scratch the itch after an excruciatingly long time away from the rink.

This deep into the offseason, we take our milestones where we can get them. And what better way to celebrate than with some outrageously premature lineup projections?

For those of you rolling your eyes, don’t fret — this isn’t just a frivolous exercise to combat midsummer malaise. It’s intended to set the table for an in-depth series analyzing several key training camp battles, the first of which will publish later this week.

Let’s start by talking about why it feels a little early for this kind of projection. First and foremost, we’re still firmly in the midst of team building season for front offices around the league. The fireworks of free agency may be long behind us, but not every GM is happy with the team they’ve built and many are still looking for ways to tangibly improve.

That could impact a seemingly set Sharks roster on two fronts. It features a surplus of forwards, with 14 expected locks for the opening night roster and 10 capable of playing top-nine minutes. Teams in search of depth up front may come calling, or Mike Grier could simply seek to create more room for his developing players. On defense, the Sharks appear to have left a full-time roster spot purposefully vacant, presumably for one of their young, developing players. But perhaps that’s not the plan, and Grier will add a more proven option to solidify his top six.

Those possibilities aside, I’m reasonably confident in Grier’s intention to proceed with the group he’s assembled. His defense finally features enough reliable, veteran pieces to provide a productive learning environment for someone like Luca Cagnoni, Nolan Allan, or Eric Pohlkamp. That feels purposeful. At a certain point, young players have to play or they won’t progress.

Up front, 14 forwards may look like a crowd in early August — particularly with prospects like Filip Bystedt, Quentin Musty and Cam Lund knocking at the door — but that can change quickly when bumps and bruises start to pile up. Even fully healthy, it’s a group that features a number of relatively inexperienced players, likely to suffer through some growing pains over the course of an 84-game season.

Perhaps most importantly, the Sharks will need to ice a forward corps with above-average scoring depth if this team has true playoff designs. With an average defense at best, a surplus of quality forwards might be a necessary problem to have. It’s this last point that has most informed and influenced my projected lineup construction below, and the reason you’ll see third and fourth lines built to contribute offense.

Forward Lines

L1: Graf - Celebrini - Smith

There might only be one forward pairing truly set in stone headed into training camp — Macklin Celebrini, and Will Smith. San Jose’s dynamic duo will make up two thirds of the team’s top line for a second straight season, without any doubt. The battle for a spot on Celebrini’s opposite wing will be one of camp’s most compelling, with no shortage of potential options in play.

The most popular choices among fans and analysts seem to be Mason Marchment and Igor Chernyshov, both of whom make a lot of sense on paper. Either would add size and scoring touch to a line that lacks some muscle but features world-class skill. I like Chernyshov a lot in the role, and if he comes to camp in great cardiovascular shape he’ll be the odds-on favorite to win it. But 20+ minutes a night over 84 games is a lot to ask of a player entering his first full NHL season.

Marchment makes plenty of sense from a physical perspective, and he has the right skill set to complement two high-end players. He thrived in that role alongside Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko as a member of the Columbus Blue Jackets last season. What worries me about Marchment as a running mate for Celebrini and Smith is his pace. Celebrini moves at breakneck speed, while Smith is a bit more meticulous. I believe Celebrini needs another high-pace player on his opposite wing to maximize his chemistry with Smith, and Marchment isn’t exactly fleet of foot.

Depending on how quickly he adjusts to the NHL, I could see Ivar Stenberg eventually forcing his way onto the top line at some point this season. Stylistically, he’d be a natural fit, with his elite skill and high-end two-way sensibilities. In the meantime, Collin Graf still checks the most boxes of any realistic option. He can keep pace with Celebrini and compensate for Smith’s defensive deficiencies, but has the skill and scoring touch to produce.

It also doesn’t hurt that Graf is already under contract at a team-friendly $4.25M for the next three seasons. That will become a sneakily important consideration going forward, because Celebrini is sure to inflate the counting stats of any winger with whom he regularly shares ice. Unless they’re immediately dominant, like Celebrini was right out of the gate, there’s a longterm financial benefit to slow-cooking younger players — especially those still on entry-level contracts. If Chernyshov lands immediately on the first line and spends the last two years of his ELC riding shotgun with Celebrini, his second deal is going to be a monster. Should he force that to happen, great. But the Sharks don’t need to pave the road and buy his bus ticket.

L2: Marchment - Misa - Chernyshov

When the Sharks signed Marchment on July 1, this is where I immediately envisioned him lining up — as mentor and protector to this young pair, as they attempt to rekindle their junior hockey chemistry at the NHL level. Celebrini and Smith are long past the requirement for a veteran babysitter. Misa and Chernyshov would still benefit mightily from someone playing that role on their behalf.

Misa and Chernyshov, to their credit, best replicate the composition of the Fantilli-Marchenko duo that Marchment thrived alongside last season. Like Fantilli, Misa is a skilled, cerebral two-way pivot with rockets in his feet. Like Marchenko, Chernyshov is big, skilled and has excellent straight-line speed, a combination he uses to bully his way through the neutral zone and into scoring position. Both Misa and Chernyshov are strong puck carriers, and equal threats to score or make plays. Much like Marchment himself, both are very intentional players who play well-defined, simplified games.

All they’re missing is experience, which Marchment offers along with hulking size and a deft scoring touch around the net. With Marchment creating room through the middle of the ice, Misa and Chernyshov will have maximum time and space to create dangerous opportunities in the offensive zone. Plus, they’re both strong enough skaters and two-way players to compensate for Marchment’s lack of foot speed. Fantilli and Marchenko, it should be noted, are two of the fastest players in the NHL per NHL EDGE.

This trio could line up as San Joses third unit depending on the opponent, but should be relied upon to score and produce at a second-line rate regardless of deployment.

L3: Stenberg - Wennberg - Sherwood

I can’t think of a better way to set Ivar Stenberg up for a successful rookie season than to nestle him alongside two of the team’s most reliable and detailed veteran leaders. Wennberg, Stenberg’s countryman, might be one of the most underrated two-way centers in the entire NHL. He transports and protects the puck well, which creates time and space for his line mates. That should help take pressure off of Stenberg as he adjusts to NHL pace. Sherwood is fast, physical and never takes a shift off. Stylistically, his game fits like a glove opposite Stenberg’s relentless forechecking and sneaky stick work. He also gives this line a strong finisher alongside two pass-first players.

When required, Stenberg and Marchment could be flipped, allowing head coach Ryan Warsofsky and his staff to hard match this line against other teams’ top groups. Depending on how quickly Stenberg adjusts, however, Warsofsky might find this trio to be just as effective in a shutdown role simply because it’s so hard, fast and dangerous. This is a line built to force other teams into mistakes and make them pay.

L4: Goodrow - Ostapchuk - Toffoli

Starting a veteran scorer like Toffoli on the fourth line, especially after a 19-goal, 49-point season, might seem like an odd choice at first blush. Warsofsky has shown a preference for heavy, physical fourth lines that forecheck hard and punish the opposition. Toffoli simply doesn’t fit that mold.

But this team’s priorities have changed. Development is still a part of the equation, but it is not paramount. Carrying a rugged fourth line full of low-upside, veteran culture drivers makes perfect sense for a rebuilding team — one that has to insulate its vulnerable young stars with good role models as they develop in a losing environment. But the Sharks are now a team with playoff expectations. To take that next step, they’ll need to lean heavily on their best attribute: Skilled depth up front.

Barclay Goodrow, whose skating and penalty killing improved tremendously last season after a dismal 2024-25 campaign, still has a place on this team. Ditto for Toffoli, who has lost a step and no longer looks like a surefire top-nine option on this roster. A wealth of veteran leadership walked out the door this summer in Mario Ferraro, Vincent Desharnais and Ryan Reaves. Goodrow and Toffoli will be counted on to fill the void.

Toffoli will still get his looks on the power play, and gives Warsofsky a highly-qualified option to plug into the top nine in case of injury — or, if one of his younger players hits a rough patch. But it’s at even strength where I think Toffoli’s presence on this line could be really intriguing. Alongside San Jose’s biggest, fastest and strongest center in Zach Ostapchuk, he won’t have to worry much about his own zone. Against the slower pace of fourth line competition, he’ll have more time and space to use his skill and smarts.

This line could create major match-up issues for opposing teams, and won’t be giving up too much physicality or utility with Goodrow and Ostapchuk as holdover mainstays. Toffoli is one of the most experienced players on the roster, and understands what is required for an older player to adapt to an evolving role. It might surprise observers how effective he looks grinding out fourth line shifts when he’s not parsing out his energy levels over 17-18 minutes a night. As an added bonus, playing with a skilled sniper like Toffoli could give the front office a better idea of Ostapchuk’s offensive ceiling.

Extras: Adam Gaudette, Ty Dellandrea

Gaudette gets into the lineup when the coaching staff wants a little more speed on the fourth line, or if Toffoli bumps up into the top nine as an injury replacement. Dellandrea plugs in as-needed when injury requires, or if the coaching staff wants a reliable, defense-first fourth line they can deploy as a legitimate shutdown unit. Both also see time if older veterans or young players are scratched for maintenance and development days. Load management will be critical this season with the newly-extended schedule.

Defense Pairs

P1: Nurse - Kesselring

Darnell Nurse is the most versatile and competent veteran defenseman on the current roster. Last season, the Sharks were forced to essentially platoon Dmitry Orlov and Mario Ferraro as de facto number one defensemen, with Orlov as the team’s primary puck mover and Ferraro as top shutdown man. Nurse can provide both in one package, and while he may not have elite puck skill it is at least on par with Orlov’s. Nurse is also a tremendous skater and athlete, and can handle the physical demands of top-pair minutes. At 6’4”, he brings size and reach that both Orlov and Ferraro lack.

6’5” Michael Kesselring feels like the most logical partner for Nurse, a similarly strong skater and two-way defender whose game skews slightly more toward offense. It’s a good fit with Nurse, who thrives when playing a more shutdown-oriented style. They combine to give San Jose a massive, imposing and highly mobile first pair, one with enough skill to produce offense in difficult minutes.

P2: Dickinson - Trouba

Trouba was at his best last season alongside smooth-skating young left-hander Jackson LaCombe, and it seems like a foregone conclusion that he’ll be asked to play a similar role next to sophomore Sam Dickinson in San Jose. Trouba is big, physical and has a cannon of a shot. His best-known attribute is a penchant for heavy open ice hits, which makes him a nightmare to play against but can occasionally leave him out of position. Dickinson has the elite skating ability to make up for those positional mistakes, and should allow for Trouba to be at his most impactful.

With Trouba on the ice to win battles, dig pucks out of corners and provide heavy physical play, Dickinson should have more open ice to air out his beautiful stride and rush the puck with more frequency. Dickinson has the skill and speed to push offense and jump into the rush, something fans and coaches alike hope to see more of from the second-year blue liner. This pair has the potential to punish opponents physically and on the scoresheet, and rounds out a hulking top-four made up entirely of defensemen 6’3” or taller.

P3: Orlov - Pohlkamp

We’ll dig into the Eric Pohlkamp vs. Luca Cagnoni debate in more detail later this week, but for now I’m giving the edge to the older, bigger and more physical Pohlkamp. He brings balance to the defense as a third right-handed option, and makes sense playing alongside a very similar veteran mentor in Dmitry Orlov. Both are sub-6’0 defenders who love to hit and shoot the puck. Pohlkamp’s path to playing top-four NHL minutes probably looks a lot like the one Orlov has traveled so far in his career. A lot of smaller defensemen are reticent to throw their weight around, or hold on to the puck under pressure. Orlov fears neither, a good lesson for Pohlkamp to learn firsthand. Pairing them up feels like a logical choice both in terms of team construction, and Pohlkamp’s personal development.

Stylistically, the two share a lot in common, save for one critical point of contrast — speed. Pohlkamp is a very strong skater, with the first-step acceleration to evade forecheckers or jump into open space off the rush. His high-pace style of play should compensate for Orlov’s slower feet, while Orlov’s experience and physicality help create a steady environment for Pohlkamp as he adjusts to the pace of NHL play.

Extras: Nolan Allan

We’ll almost certainly see Luca Cagnoni occupy a roster spot at some point this season, but expect the Sharks to start the year with Nolan Allan as seventh defenseman. A veteran of more than 40 NHL games, Allan is the oldest and most experienced option among the young defensemen battling for a roster spot.

Plus, he’s no longer waiver exempt and his development won’t be adversely impacted by a relative lack of playing time. Cagnoni and Pohlkamp are higher-potential prospects who need ice time and ample opportunity to develop. If they’re not in the Sharks’ lineup on a nightly basis, either would be better served playing a central role and big minutes in the AHL.

Allan also gives the Sharks an option for different looks on defense, depending on the match-up. While Cagnoni and Pohlkamp are both undersized offensive defensemen, Allan is 6’2” and plays more of a stay-at-home game.

Projected Lineup

Graf - Celebrini - Smith

Marchment - Misa - Chernyshov

Stenberg - Wennberg - Sherwood

Goodrow - Ostapchuk - Toffoli

Gaudette, Dellandrea

++

Nurse - Kesselring

Dickinson - Trouba

Orlov - Pohlkamp

Allan

After a mid-month lull, July ended almost as busily for Mike Grier as it began.

San Jose’s fifth-year GM continued to turn the page on his team’s long rebuild with a milestone extension for Macklin Celebrini on Wednesday. Then, yesterday, Grier concluded his final piece of unfinished offseason business with a three-year, $12.75M contract for versatile young winger Collin Graf.

It’s a good deal for Graf, who earns himself some well-deserved financial security after a circuitous route to the NHL. And it’s a good deal for Grier, who is probably paying a little under market value for a player who had limited negotiating power. If Graf continues to play like he did last season, he’ll be a bargain at $4.25M. Most critically, he’ll still be an RFA and under team control when the contract ends.

With Graf re-signed, San Jose’s forward corps appears officially set headed into training camp. Everyone expected to battle for a spot on the opening night roster is under contract.

What we learned from the Celebrini, Graf signings

There’s still the matter of Will Smith, also eligible for an extension this summer, and Grier told reporters earlier in the week that he’d like to get something done with the former fourth overall pick before camp. But the term and value of the two deals signed this past week make that outcome appear increasingly unlikely.

Buried within what may seem like two fairly obvious and predictable moves, Grier left a few breadcrumbs that give us insight into the unofficial guidelines that will govern his decision making processes going forward. The lead clue? Timing.

After a busy first day of free agency, Grier told reporters that he and Graf’s camp were not far apart on terms. Then, it was radio silence until he reiterated that stance four weeks later — hours after Celebrini’s extension was announced. Three days after that, Graf’s new deal was done. Clearly, Grier had a list of internal priorities and Celebrini’s extension was at the top.

It would be easy to write off the order of events as a GM simply taking care of his most important player first. And that would make perfect sense, if Celebrini’s entry-level deal had already run its course. But he has a year left on his current pact, while Graf needed a new contract before the start of camp. So why get Celebrini’s negotiations out of the way first? Because Grier needed to know how exactly much his franchise player was going to cost before he committed longterm money anywhere else.

Despite Grier and agent Pat Brisson making public assertions to the contrary, Leo Carlsson’s earth-shattering offer sheet undoubtedly changed the landscape of Celebrini’s negotiations at the midpoint. It may have only impacted the final AAV by $1-2M — but that might have been the difference between comfortably offering Graf five-to-six years at $6M, or opting for a safer bridge deal that keep costs down now.

That said, I’m not sure the option to lock Graf up long term at a team-friendly number existed after Carlsson, Celebrini and Connor Bedard signed their respective extensions. The amount of money being thrown at young players is unprecedented, and the cap is rising faster than it has in league history. Graf is a smart kid and a very hard worker. If he’s confident in his ability to replicate last season’s performance a few more times over the next three seasons, he knows what that will mean for his market value. He could be a $7-8M player on his next deal, if he maintains his all-situations utility and improves his counting stats even modestly.

And while Grier would probably have jumped at the chance to lock Graf down for even longer, he has held fast on one front despite the evolving priorities and expectations around his newly competitive roster — he has not yet paid for potential.

Adding years to Graf’s contract would have almost certainly meant paying above market value for the next season or two in hopes of a long-term bargain. That’s not a path we’ve seen Grier explore yet, and it’s one he may never travel. Why? As has become the norm in San Jose these days, it all comes back to Celebrini.

Potential vs. the Franchise

Grier knows exactly what he has in Celebrini — a bona fide superstar who is already worth every cent of the $18.8M he’ll start to earn next season. It’s likely he’ll get even better, but the Sharks don’t have to make that bet. Celebrini can continue to be the player he was last season for the duration of his prime, and he’ll still be worth the contract he just signed. He has established his baseline value, beyond any reasonable question.

The same can’t be said for other young forwards like Smith, Michael Misa, Igor Chernyshov or Ivar Stenberg. 20-year-old defenseman Sam Dickinson is still an unknown quantity, while other key pieces of San Jose’s future blue line, like Keaton Verhoeff and Ryan Lin, are complete mysteries. A wide range of outcomes still exists for more established youngsters like Graf and Yaroslav Askarov, too.

The Montreal Canadiens front office has gotten a lot of credit recently for bargain longterm deals signed by young core contributors like Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slavkovsky, Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield and Ivan Demidov. What goes largely ignored is the risk they took when those contracts were signed. All five deals were gambles. All five bets paid off. That’s shrewd management, to be sure, but it also required a significant amount of luck.

Paying for potential is always a risk. You win when a player outperforms their projection, and you lose when they fall short. That part of the equation is always constant. What changes are the stakes. For San Jose, the cost of a bad financial choice is easy to compute. The price is Macklin Celebrini. Allocate the wrong dollars to the wrong player, and there might not be enough left to keep Celebrini in the fold. Or, the wrong salary structure leads to a competitive downturn and he leaves in pursuit of greener pastures.

Montreal, with all due respect to its excellent young roster, does not have a Celebrini to lose. That risk level does not exist for the Canadiens, and so it’s a smart strategy to make calculated bets on the very good players they do have. If they can retain that cast on below-market deals, they’ll have the flexibility to eventually add elite talent through other avenues, like free agency or trade. The Sharks, conversely, don’t need an outside infusion of elite talent. They need the flexibility and money to keep what they already have.

And aside from Celebrini, the Sharks don’t fully know what they have. There could be another franchise-altering talent in the pipeline, one who eventually requires the level of financial commitment Celebrini has already earned. There’s risk in signing a player like Graf to a bridge deal, when he could turn out to be a massive bargain on a longer-term pact. But it pales in comparison to the risk of losing a future superstar because the cap well has run dry.

How this impacts a potential extension for Smith

So what does this all have to do with Smith, and whether or not he extends this summer? Essentially, Smith’s situation is the same as Graf’s, just significantly intensified. Smith has yet to match Graf’s level of consistency, but has elite first-line upside and top-five draft pedigree. He’s racked up over 100 NHL points while barely scratching the surface of his full potential. The only way to extend Smith here and now is to pay for that immense potential. Otherwise, it simply makes more financial sense for Smith to bet on himself and push the negotiations to next offseason.

That shouldn’t worry anyone, either. The Sharks will still have plenty of time to negotiate a new deal with Smith between the end of next season and July 1, 2027, when he’ll be vulnerable to offer sheets. There’s no indication of any negativity between the two parties, and if they don’t find common ground this summer it won’t be a reflection on the relationship or the team’s perception of Smith as a player — simply the reality of his individual development path.

But fans hoping Smith signs a Demidov-like extension, seven or eight years at a number that’s modestly inflated now but projects as a massive bargain for the team by its midpoint, are probably going to be disappointed. For Smith, there’s no compelling reason to take himself out of the free agency pool for so long in such a player-friendly market. For the Sharks, committing dollars and term past the end of Celebrini’s extension is not a viable option — at least, not for a relatively unproven player like Smith.

At some point, Grier will have to sign a contract that extends beyond the end of Celebrini’s recently-inked extension. But I wouldn’t expect it to happen anytime soon. If it does, I’d guess it will be to lure in an established star player. Grier appears to still very much be in wait-and-see mode with the vast majority of his homegrown core.

It’s a cautious approach, and one that could come back to haunt the Sharks if they end up with a half dozen superstar players all demanding market value within the same 2-3 year span. Good teams have to find economic efficiencies to win, and finding them usually entails a certain degree of risk.

But when you already have the Hope Diamond on display, you don’t buy go out and buy a mine. You spend on security.

The announcement we’ve all anticipated since our calendars turned to July has finally come. Macklin Celebrini will be the highest-paid player in San Jose Sharks history, signing a five-year contract extension that sets new franchise records for both annual average ($18.8M) and total value ($94M).

Let’s get the obvious conclusions out of the way up front. 1) That’s a lot of money. 2) He’s worth every penny.

Fans can celebrate in comfort, knowing that the first-and-only number one pick in Sharks history will wear teal for at least six more years. This is a good news day for everyone — fans, ownership, management, and, obviously, Celebrini himself.

Discount or not, which we’ll discuss in more detail below, $18.8M is the highest annual average value any player has signed for in the salary cap era. Ever, for any team. Celebrini turned 20 years old last month.

But the Sharks aren’t paying for potential here. Celebrini has already earned a deal of this magnitude. It will probably be surpassed in value by some established superstar before he ever takes the ice as an $18.8M player, but that won’t take away from this accomplishment in the slightest. Celebrini has followed in the footsteps of the game’s greatest cap-era players. Now, he’s blazing a new path forward.

It’s not all sunshine and roses — again, we’ll dive deeper into all that below — but overall, there’s a lot to like about this deal and what it represents for San Jose’s fledgling core.

What I like: The number.

Sharks fans spent the last month hoping Celebrini would follow the example set out by his hero, Sidney Crosby, and take a deal in line with the five-year, $8.7M AAV pact Crosby signed coming off of his own entry-level contract. At the time, that number represented 17.2% of the salary cap made him the league’s highest paid player.

Celebrini will earn more than twice that dollar amount on his second deal, but will actually account for a smaller percentage of the total cap at 16.6%. It’s a perfectly reasonable amount of money to allot a franchise-caliber player, and certainly not a percentage of the cap that prevented Pittsburgh from winning multiple cups or retaining its Hall of Fame core for decades.

Perhaps more importantly, one has to consider what Celebrini would have been offered by another team had the Sharks failed to get an extension done. Imagine a player of Celebrini’s ilk going the Leo Carlsson route and fielding offer sheets next summer. There’s only one number that would make sense, and that’s league maximum — $22.7M per season, based on next year’s projected cap number. One could argue, and successfully I might add, that $18.8M actually represents a $4M discount right out of the gate. It should be an absolute bargain in years four and five.

*Correction: Crosby’s contract extension was signed in 2007, but kicked in during the 2008-09 season when the NHL’s salary cap was $56.7M. His $8.7M salary actually accounted for 15.34% of Pittsburgh’s cap. So, not less than Celebrini’s 16.6% — but within close range.

What I don’t like: The term.

There was only one scenario I truly hoped the Sharks would avoid — a four-year extension that walked Celebrini right to the precipice of unrestricted free agency. A three-year extension was my personal preference, one that allowed the team to overpay Celebrini now, while his peer group continued to play on sweetheart deals. It would have meant going back to the bargaining table sooner, but with Celebrini as an RFA. An eight-year extension at near league max was my second choice.

Five years isn’t quite as anxiety-inducing for fans as four would have been, but it’s not much better. The Sharks buy just one year of UFA eligibility, and once this contract runs its course, Celebrini can walk. That’s a terrifying prospect, plain and simple. Unfortunately, it was also an outcome essentially set in stone as soon as Anaheim’s Leo Carlsson signed his five-year, $18M offer sheet with Philadelphia.

From my perspective, the scariest part of Carlsson’s deal — and Connor Bedard’s subsequent 5-year, $15M pact — was never the number. It was always the term. Philadelphia had to make their offer less attractive for the Ducks to match. They did that by giving Carlsson both an inflated AAV and a much shorter term than the eight years Anaheim initially sought. As soon as a new precedent was set, agents took notice and immediately changed tack. Elite players no longer have to choose between long-term security and a high annual salary. The Ducks and Flyers made sure of that.

It’s a frustrating bit of mismanagement from Pat Verbeek and his team, the effects of which will be felt for years to come. We know Carlsson would have happily signed an eight year extension in the $12M range because he publicly said so. Verbeek, and to a lesser extent Daniel Briere in Philly, have given young players more leverage than they’ve ever had through an entirely avoidable sequence of events.

In the immediate, Anaheim’s insistence on playing hardball with Carlsson has seemingly brought a premature end to the era of eight-year extensions. Verbeek took a gamble and got torched so badly that every other GM with young stars on their roster started carrying a metaphorical fire extinguisher — the five-year deal. Any chance the Sharks had to lock their franchise player up for longer disappeared when Philadelphia’s offer sheet hit Carlsson’s inbox.

For Celebrini, the term is optimal. It gets him to unrestricted free agency, and back to the bargaining table, at a time when the salary cap is expected to surpass $150M. It’s enough money to set him up for life, but doesn’t leave him locked into a bad situation during his prime years should Grier’s vision falter. If the ultimate goal of these negotiations was to keep Celebrini happy — and I’d argue that it was — mission accomplished.

“I couldn’t be happier to sign an extension today,” said San Jose’s future captain. “The faith and support that Mr. Plattner, Mike Grier and the entire staff have shown me throughout the past two seasons is proof that we are building something special here. My teammates and I are ready to take another step toward the ultimate goal of bringing a Stanley Cup to this city and its incredible fans.  I can’t wait to get going.” 

Perhaps thats the real silver lining to Celebrini’s less-than-ideal five-year term — it sets a competitive timeline for the team that simply cannot be pushed back if the Sharks hope to keep their franchise player around beyond 2032. This team may or may not win a Stanley Cup in the next five years. But they’re sure as hell going to try, and we’ll have a front-row seat.

What I love: The process.

Typically, there’s not a lot one can take away from a corporate press release — believe me, I’ve written hundreds. The content within is exactly what the author wants you to see, and nothing more. This aversion to interpretation usually manifests in sterility. Rather than say the wrong thing, very little of substance is actually said.

The release Sharks PR put out around Celebrini’s extension strays from the formula. It’s still the message team and player want the world to see, but it’s not generic or boring. It’s loud, and informative.

From Grier:

“In just two seasons as a teenager in the National Hockey League and on the International stage, Macklin has established himself as one of the premier players in the world. We are extremely excited to have him secured and committed as the centerpiece of a core of talented players in San Jose. 

As we continue our goal of building a team capable of annually competing for the Stanley Cup, we want to thank Macklin and his representatives for a respectful negotiation process, and acknowledge the flexibility they have provided to the team in how we allocate future dollars towards the team being constructed around Macklin. 

I also want to thank Hasso Plattner for his continued commitment and steadfast dedication to providing the financial resources to put the best team possible on the ice for our passionate fans, who deserve a winner in San Jose.”

You expect a bit of pomp and ceremony around a signing of this magnitude, but it is fairly rare to see a general manger thank the player’s representatives. Nor is it common to see a team publicly acknowledge their player’s willingness to take a competitive discount. Those are not accidental revelations, nor is the final stanza. The purpose of that last paragraph is not to shower an already successful man with praise — it’s to put the rest of the league on notice. Our owner is willing to spend. Is yours?

Celebrini’s agent, the legendary Pat Brisson, reinforced Grier’s talking points with his own contribution:

“From our very first conversation, it was clear that Mike and Mr. Plattner were fully committed to Macklin’s future in San Jose.”

Again, it is not common practice for player agents to be quoted in an official team press release. This was a strategically architected announcement, a coordinated effort between Celebrini, his camp and the Sharks’ front office. It’s intended to show that player and organization are on the same page, and communicating clearly.

But more importantly, it send a message to the rest of the league: The Sharks take care of their players, and are building a winner.

Who wouldn’t want to be a part of that?

Last July, shortly after the 2025 NHL draft, we published our pre-season Top 25 Prospect Rankings. Now, with the 2026 draft behind us and a new batch of incoming prospects to account for, it’s time for our annual update. This is a long one, so strap in!

San Jose’s prospect pool continues to be among the league’s best (if not the best), thanks in no small part to an epic 2026 draft that saw the team make three selections within the top 21 picks of round one. I firmly believe that at least 20 of the 25 players represented on this list have a better-than-average chance of playing NHL games, and that 14 of the top 15 are virtually guaranteed to do so (some have already). As many as 11 of those 15 could play NHL games this year. Nearly half of them almost certainly will.

The top three prospects from last year’s list — Michael Misa, Sam Dickinson and Igor Chernyshov — have all graduated. Joining them is big center Zach Ostapchuk, 13th on our last ranking. Several prospects were also traded away — defensemen Zach Sharp and Jake Furlong, winger Kasper Halttunen, and center Brandon Svoboda. Forward David Klee saw his development stall this season and dropped out of the top-25. Forward Ethan Cardwell and defenseman Nolan Allan – who never had a chance to make an appearance on this list thanks to eligibility rules – are no longer waiver exempt.

Everyone else is still present and accounted for, some who have seen their stock rise, others fall. Players from the previous year’s list will feature an update on their past season, but I’ve elected not to rehash too much of their scouting reports — that info is available on last year’s list, which you can find here. Players brand new to the rankings will get more of the deep dive treatment.

A few players that just missed the cut this season are still intriguing prospects with potential NHL upside, most of whom will likely find themselves on this list next year as incoming pros like Ivar Stenberg, Eric Pohlkamp and Luca Cagnoni graduate, and others age out. Final cuts include diminutive but pesky Harvard forward Richard Gallant, Cornell defenseman Michael Fisher, Notre Dame forward David Klee, and Saginaw goaltender Brady Knowling.

Eligibility rules have remained the same, but here’s a quick reminder:

The Rules

1. Players must be 23 years of age or under at the start of the 2026-27 season.

2. Players that have graduated to an expected full-time NHL role are excluded.

3. Players must be waiver exempt.

Prospects have again been divided into five tiers, each with an explanation of what the tier represents. Prospects are ranked based on the average of two scores, each worth ten points — ceiling, and floor. When prospects were tied, I deferred to the player with a higher likelihood of hitting his projected ceiling. Despite those attempts at balance and objectivity, some prospects on this list will certainly outperform players above them while others fail to live up to their potential.

Comparative rankings for players included on last year’s list are denoted in brackets. Some moved up (or down) by default. Players that moved up or down in the rankings due to performance, I’ve called out specifically.

Prospects that I’ve seen play often include more detailed assessments, while those I’ve seen irregularly or not at all will be a bit more sparse. For those players, I’ve relied more heavily on scouting reports and statistics. Most rank toward the bottom end of the list.

Tier Five — Likely to play NHL games.

Players in this tier have physical traits and tools that project to the pro game, and are on development trajectories that make NHL games a reasonably likely outcome. While some players will always outperform their tier and become full-time NHL players, it’s a statistical long shot for everyone in this category.

25 — Alexander Karmanov, LHD.

Ht/Wt: 7’1 271 Age: 18

2026-27 league: OHL (North Bay Battalion)

The first seven-footer ever drafted by an NHL team, Karmanov is perhaps the most intriguing prospect on this entire list. He is a project, to be certain – but Karmanov is no novelty selection or sideshow act. There’s real potential here. For a player his size, he has extremely impressive coordination and a shockingly fluid stride. His stick and wingspan together cover an incredible percentage of the defensive zone, and you can definitely see the vision for a big, dependable defender who can kill penalties and frustrate the opposition with suffocating physical play. But Karmanov also displayed some surprisingly soft hands and deft skill at development camp, skating pucks out of trouble and even beating the first forechecker with a slick lateral move. By all accounts he is a tremendously dedicated and coachable kid. The odds are stacked against Karmanov, as they are against any pioneer of the sport – but I wouldn’t necessarily bet against him.

24 — Nate Misskey, RHD. (25)

Ht/Wt: 6’4 212 Age: 21

2026-27 league: NCAA (UMass-Lowell)

One of many players who benefitted from the change in NCAA eligibility rules, Misskey made the jump from major junior hockey to college this past season and had a decent year for a bad UMass team. Misskey has size, okay offensive instincts and a calm, pro-ready style – but there is just something missing for me. He doesn’t have one standout trait beyond his size, and has a tendency to play a bit smaller than he is. And though he’s often in the right place at the right time offensively, Misskey lacks the natural skill and quick reaction time to consistently capitalize on those opportunities. When he plays alongside more creative players, he’s frequently handcuffed by passes or plays he isn’t able to anticipate. Misskey looks like organizational depth at best, and it would not surprise me to see the Sharks let him walk as a free agent once his collegiate career wraps.

23 — Colton Roberts, RHD. (24)

Ht/Wt: 6’4 201 Age: 20

2026-27 league: NCAA (Colorado College)

Like Misskey, Roberts had a solid but unspectacular season for a fairly weak Colorado College program. It’s easier to see a road to NHL games for Roberts than Misskey; he’s younger, brings a more consistent physical element to the game and adds the kind of in-zone stiffness Mike Grier values from his defense. Roberts’ puck play is average, but not an anchor. He has limited offensive instincts, but a hard, heavy shot. At his size, there are enough projectable tools to see a future as a third pairing or seventh defenseman at the NHL level. But I would guess he’ll spend at least two more years in college, and it’s certainly no guarantee he turns pro with the Sharks organization when his NCAA career comes to a close.

22 — Jake Gustafson, C.

Ht/Wt: 6’4 186 Age: 18

2026-27 league: WHL (Portland Winterhawks)

Son of longtime Sharks executive and former San Jose Rhinos goaltender Jon Gustafson, Jake is a true homegrown talent who came up through the Jr. Sharks and Bellarmine systems before continuing his education and development at legendary Shattuck St. Mary’s prep. After one year at Shattuck, Gustafson made the jump to major junior hockey with the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks. He tallied 13 goals and 25 points in 68 games as a rookie this past year, and will return for a second season before heading to Colorado College.

Gustafson is big, rangy and a good skater for his size. He showed some surprising skill with a beautiful breakaway snipe to open the scoring at July’s prospect scrimmage, and has a lot of fans within the organization – some who have known him since birth. He has a projectable frame and skill set, and has a chance to play bottom-six minutes at the NHL level if he continues to develop well. It will be interesting to see if his opportunity and production spike as a second-year WHL player this season. He’s a prospect I like better than his draft position, and could prove to be a steal in that range if he develops into a good bottom-six NHL center.

21 — Andre Gasseau, C.

Ht/Wt: 6’4 225 Age: 23

2026-27 league: AHL (San Jose Barracuda)

One of the newest additions to San Jose’s prospect pool, Gasseau was acquired via trade after he declined to sign an entry-level contract with the Boston Bruins, who drafted him 213th overall in 2021. Gasseau spent four years at Boston College, where he scored at a nearly identical pace all four seasons and captained the Eagles his senior year. Big and physical with a polished, well-defined game perfectly suited for a fourth-line role, Gasseau has limited upside but a fairly high probability of seeing NHL time. I don’t know if he’ll ever have quite enough offense or creativity in his game to be an everyday player, even as a fourth liner.

Tier Four — Bottom of the lineup NHL regulars.

These are players that project to play a regular NHL shift in third/fourth line or bottom pairing roles. This tier primarily features players with one or two standout qualities along with one or two deficiencies that ultimately limit their upside.

20 — Yegor Rimashevsky, RW/LW. (22)

Ht/Wt: 6’3 185 Age: 21

2026-27 league: KHL (Dynamo Moskva)

It’s truly a shame that Rimashevsky still won’t be in North America full time this coming season, but we at least got our first live viewing of the 2023 seventh rounder when he attended his debut development camp in early July. Unsurprisingly, Rimashevsky looked like one of the most confident and adept players on the ice during the rookie scrimmage. After all, he’s now three years deep into his career as an everyday KHL player. But it’s hard to know how well he’s progressing in that league, with what appears to be a fairly limited or at least inconsistent role.

Rimashevsky had a strange season, setting career highs in games played (61) and goals scored (10), but a career-low in points (12). He finished the year strong – relatively speaking, at least – with three goals in his final ten games. Based on his performance at development camp, it’s clear that Rimashevsky would be a welcome and impactful addition to the Barracuda, where he’d slot seamlessly into the middle six and see a lot more ice time. He has the size, speed and skill required to play a bottom-six NHL role someday, and would probably be knocking on the door for a call-up or two this season if he were developing in San Jose. He jumped up a tier just for showing up to dev camp, and I’d have him ranked in the top-15 if he were on a more predictable trajectory.

19 — Reese Laubach, C. (18)

Ht/Wt: 6’0 170 Age: 22

2026-27 league: NCAA (Penn State)

Laubach saw a few players jump ahead of him in the rankings this season, but held relatively steady overall thanks to a few graduating players in this general range. After putting up 15 goals and 30 points as a sophomore – an eight-point jump over his freshman totals – Laubach found himself in a bit of a tough spot on a suddenly competitive Penn State team this past season. Much of the team’s year was spent integrating future first overall pick Gavin McKenna into the lineup – a process that sometimes benefitted Laubach, and others complicated his role.

Early on, Laubach often played alongside McKenna, who was struggling to adjust to the physicality and pace of NCAA play. Laubach, conversely, had trouble keeping up with McKenna’s creativity. Once McKenna got going, it bumped Laubach down the lineup. McKenna’s presence also impacted Laubach’s power play time and opportunity. Consequently, he saw his numbers dip slightly rather than take yet another jump. But with McKenna headed to the NHL, Penn State should be in for a reset to relative normalcy. Laubach, now a senior, will need to seize that opportunity and show significant improvement on the scoresheet if he wants to sign an NHL contract with his hometown Sharks next spring.

18 — Teddy Mutryn, C

Ht/Wt: 6’1 209 Age: 19

2026-27 league: NCAA (Boston College)

Mutryn comes from a pro football family, and you can see it in his game. He’s thick for his age and height, with broad shoulders and the hunched skating stance of an offensive lineman. Mutryn is physical, and likes to lead with his upper body, which can take him a bit off balance but makes him a terror on the forecheck. He lacks high-end foot speed and acceleration, but brings a ton of effort and energy on every shift.

Mutryn had 31 goals and 68 points in 54 games for Moncton of the QMJHL last season, a league not particularly known for its suffocating defense or heavy physicality. Mutryn, who plays a bowling-ball style of hockey, excelled in that environment – particularly during the postseason, when he had 10 goals and 30 points in 21 games and led Moncton to the QMJHL finals. Physically, he’s more than ready for the NCAA. But will his feet allow him to keep pace? That will be the big question for Mutryn as he makes the jump from junior to college hockey next year.

17 — Max Heise, C.

Ht/Wt: 6’3 172 Age: 20

2026-27 league: NCAA (University of Denver)

Heise just missed the cut for inclusion on last year’s list, but forced his way into the top-20 this season with his smart, cerebral, pro-style play and some surprising offensive pop. After scoring 27 goals in 50 games in 2024-25 with the BCHL’s Penticton Vees, Heise made the jump to the WHL’s Prince Albert Raiders and potted 29 goals in 63 contests. Originally committed to Michigan State University, the rangy center decided his development would be better served elsewhere and was recruited to play for defending National Champion University of Denver. It says a lot about Heise as a player and prospect that Denver’s staff, led by arguably the best head coach outside of the NHL in David Carle, wants him on their squad.

Heise reminds me a bit of Nico Sturm, with perhaps a bit more touch around the net. He is strong, dependable in his own end, makes intelligent decisions with the puck and without, and uses a good stick to create turnovers and kill plays. He has a somewhat upright skating style, but moves well for his size and has legitimate NHL upside as a bottom-six center.

16 — Joey Muldowney, RW. (15)

Ht/Wt: 5’11 155 Age: 21

2026-27 league: NCAA (UConn)

With a target on his back after a breakout 29-goal sophomore season, Muldowney took some time to adjust to his new reality as an elite NCAA producer and struggled a bit out of the gate. He still finished his junior year with a very respectable 17 goals and 29 points in 34 games, but that slight regression in production seemed to put a hold on any plans to go pro. I initially assumed Muldowney would make the jump to AHL hockey after another productive collegiate season, but the reality is he is still a long shot to find a permanent NHL role at his size. It makes more sense for him to finish out his degree at UConn, where he wears a letter and will see prime minutes in all situations, than it does to jockey for playing time on a Barracuda team stacked with high-end forward prospects.

This will be a telling season for Muldowney. He has an excellent shot, and a 29-goal NCAA season is rarified air – a number typically reserved for elite snipers. Was that season a one-off, or can he do it again? True high-end finishers tend to find a home in the NHL, even if they lack ideal size. If Muldowney’s goal scoring translates to the pro level, he could carve out a nice role as a third or fourth line scorer who creates match-up issues for shallower teams. If it doesn’t, it’s hard to see a place for him.

15 — Mattias Havelid, RHD (21)

Ht/Wt: 5’10 176 Age: 22

2026-27 league: AHL (San Jose Barracuda)

Despite battling a few injuries, Havelid’s first season of North American pro hockey went fairly well – perhaps even better than expected. Havelid’s development had seemingly stalled out to a degree in Sweden, where he saw limited minutes and opportunity for Linkoping in the SHL and was eventually loaned to Djurgardens of the second-tier HockeyAllsvenskan. The Sharks had apparently seen enough, and brought Havelid over to continue his development with the Barracuda last season. He managed a respectable five goals and 15 points in 44 AHL games, and showed flashes of the adept puck moving skill and shooting prowess that made him a second round pick back in 2022.

This season will be an important one for Havelid, who seems to benefit considerably from the smaller North American ice surface and is now fully adjusted to the subtle differences it offers. He’ll undoubtedly see more opportunity on the power play, as last year’s go-to quarterback Luca Cagnoni spends more time in the NHL. He’ll also be one of the few returning faces on the blue line, and likely be counted on to mentor young fellow Swede Leo Sahlin Wallenius as he begins his AHL career. Havelid, who has been playing pro hockey against grown men for the past five seasons, may also have his sights set on more and could be a surprise challenger for an NHL roster spot out of camp. He should view this coming year as a massive opportunity, but if he fails to take a measurable step he risks being permanently buried on the depth chart. The path to NHL hockey is notoriously difficult for undersized defensemen without elite offensive skill.

14 — Christian Kirsch, G.

Ht/Wt: 6’4 207 Age: 20

2026-27 league: NCAA (Quinnipiac)

Last year, Kirsch was omitted from this list entirely after a very rocky D+1 season that saw him bounce between the USHL and NAHL. But Kirsch found his game toward the end of that campaign and carried his newfound momentum forward in a starting role with the Kitchener Rangers, where he posted a 27-10-3 record in the regular season and led the team to a Memorial Cup championship. He’ll continue to hone his game at the NCAA level next season with Quinnipiac.

Goaltenders are hard to project, but with his development firmly back on track Kirsch is an incredibly intriguing prospect, one who suddenly gives the Sharks tremendous depth at a position that was an organizational void just two years ago. He has the size and athleticism to start NHL games, and could be an incredibly valuable piece a few years down the road. I anticipate he’ll spend at least two years in college, but it will be a lot of fun to watch Kirsch and Joshua Ravensbergen battle it out for NCAA supremacy with two strong programs.

13 — Haoxi Wang, LHD. (9)

Ht/Wt: 6’6 223 Age: 18

2026-27 league: NCAA (Boston Univ.)

Wang is one of the most significant tumblers on this year’s list, dropping four slots out of the top-10 to number 13. It’s not because he didn’t show tangible growth or improvement, either. After tallying just two assists in 32 OHL games in 2024-25, Wang put up 13 points in 28 games with the Oshawa Generals and 13 more in 29 games after a midseason trade to the Niagara Icedogs. Wang also represented China internationally at the D1B World Cup, where he registered four points in five games.

Wang is a beautiful skater, and has only improved in that regard. There is no doubt that he has the size and feet to play at hockey’s highest level. His defensive positioning is a work in progress, like any defender his age, but no tremendous cause for concern. Still, watching Wang feels like evaluating two completely different players. When the situation calls for creativity, he shows flashes of high-end skill and surprising confidence with the puck. He pushes the pace offensively, carries the load well through neutral ice and can cleverly evade defenders with the puck on his stick. He’s shifty off the line and can beat forwards one-on-one up high. When the situation calls for a safe, reliable play, however – the kind a young player learns through repetition and muscle memory – Wang is lost at sea. It’s his lack of growth in that area that raises the most concern for me, and the primary reason he dropped down this year’s list. Wang was a very late arrival to the party, and he does not have his breakout patterns committed to intellectual or physical memory. When the puck is on the yellow, or in his feet, and he has to look up to make a play, he freezes. Most often, he simply allows the forechecker to engage and then hopes he can win the battle. That may work in the OHL, where he towers over his peers. It won’t fly at the next level.

This coming season, Wang will face a massive test when he makes the jump to NCAA hockey. I don’t expect it to be a particularly smooth transition for him, either, and it would not surprise me to see Wang in the transfer portal at some point as he finds his development footing at the college level. In my opinion, Wang needs to play as many games as possible and another year of OHL hockey would have been a better development decision. Perhaps he’ll surprise us, but Wang is looking more and more like a boom-or-bust prospect. The abilities he has are elite, and the ones he’s missing are exclusionary. Either he’ll figure out the foundational aspects of playing defense and become a high-end top-four NHLer, or he won’t make it at all.

12 — Cole McKinney, C. (17)

Ht/Wt: 6’0 201 Age: 19

2026-27 league: NCAA (Univ. of Michigan)

McKinney had an up-and-down first season at the University of Michigan. He started strong, then saw his production and usage taper off as the season progressed – a not-uncommon occurrence for an 18-year-old freshman making his way in a new and notoriously difficult league. McKinney, who doesn’t project as an elite scorer at the NHL level but has some offensive pop, ended the season with 20 points in 40 games including three in his last five contests.

Now, with a year of experience under his belt, we should get a better idea of how McKinney’s development is progressing. He’ll play a more significant role, and be given expanded opportunities. He’ll have a full offseason to prepare for college hockey, and know exactly what to expect this time around. McKinney is a smart, cerebral player who played a very polished game with the USNTDP. I’ll be looking for those elements to show up in his game more often next season. He still looks like a good bet to develop into a serviceable 3C at the NHL level, and it’s that safe floor pushing him higher up in this year’s rankings. But this coming season will tell us a lot about his ceiling.

11 — Carson Wetsch, RW. (16)

Ht/Wt: 6’2 190 Age: 20

2026-27 league: AHL (San Jose Barracuda)

After a pair of nearly identical seasons, production wise, as a member of the WHL’s Calgary Hitmen, Wetsch found another gear offensively as captain of the Kelowna Rockets in his final year of junior hockey. His playmaking, in particular, came to the forefront in a way it hadn’t before as he doubled his previous career high in assists with 50. Wetsch continued to play his patented physical style, racking up 80 penalty minutes, but by all accounts played a more contained, mature game this season. The Sharks would probably like to see him revert somewhat to the pesky, shoot-first player he was in Calgary – a side of Wetsch that seems to come out when he plays against heavier competition. His willingness to drop the gloves and defend his teammates was on full display at last year’s rookie tournament, which will ultimately be the play style that endears him to Barracuda fans as he starts his pro career this fall.

Wetsch is one of those rare, young future role players who already knows exactly who he is. He has size, speed and tenacity in equal measure, and uses all three liberally. He likes to hit, and he likes to score goals. Wetsch is a straight-line player who gives you an honest effort on every shift, and it would not surprise me to see him play significant NHL games as early as 2027-28. He projects as a high-end fourth line spark plug who can kill penalties and keep opponents honest, but could have enough scoring pop to be more than that in the right environment. His jump in this year’s rankings reflect both the pro-readiness of his game, and his safer projection relative to a few of the players he leapfrogged.

Tier Three — Middle of the lineup players

This tier is made up of two types of players — those that project as surefire midrange NHLers, and high-end prospects with at least one major question mark that might prohibit them from having a meaningful NHL career. Some of the players in this tier still have the potential to graduate into the tier above.

10 – Cam Lund, RW. (11)

Ht/Wt: 6’2 195 Age: 22

2026-27 league: AHL/NHL (San Jose Barracuda/Sharks)

Lund is a player who could force Sharks management into some difficult decisions at training camp in September. He was on track for an NHL call-up last season when a fluke injury prematurely ended his campaign, and was one of the Barracuda’s best young forwards when healthy. Had his season not been disrupted by multiple bad-luck injuries, his counting stats would likely be far more impressive than the nine goals and 25 points he managed in 37 total games. Those numbers don’t reflect his contribution in other areas, either. Lund, following in the footsteps of fellow collegiate prospect Collin Graf, solidified himself as a key penalty killer and a frequent contributor on the power play.

Had Lund finished his year with the Sharks, fans might be pencilling him into a roster spot for the coming season. As it stands, he’ll most likely start his season in the AHL. But Lund didn’t look out of place during his short stint with the Sharks in 2024-25, and that was two seasons ago. He’s older, more experienced, and stronger. He’s gotten a taste of professional life and routine. If there’s one forward who could leapfrog a few of the younger, more elite pieces in the San Jose system, it’s Lund. He plays a heavy, pro-made game that might better fit into a team with playoff expectations than someone like Filip Bystedt, Quentin Musty, or even Igor Chernyshov.

Longer term, Lund projects as a versatile piece who could replace the goal scoring of an older veteran like Tyler Toffoli, or the penalty killing capabilities and energy of a bottom-six role player like Barclay Goodrow. He has the speed and skill to play top six minutes, and enough size and b-game to succeed lower in the lineup. Lund looks like he’ll be a solid NHL player who can contribute to a winning squad.

9 – Leo Sahlin Wallenius, LHD. (12)

Ht/Wt: 6’0 180 Age: 20

2026-27 league: AHL (San Jose Barracuda)

After a somewhat strange draft-plus-one season that saw him bounce between a few different leagues to find the right developmental level, Sahlin Wallenius settled into a full-time role in the SHL this past year and quietly delivered a very strong showing. He set career highs in games played and all three offensive categories, with a brief midseason interlude that saw him win gold with Sweden’s WJC squad. He played a key role on that team, as one of three dominant young defenders who largely carried the Swedes to victory. It was a strong enough season to reassert himself in these rankings and jump into the top ten. Now, his development will continue in North America, under the watchful eye of San Jose’s development staff and coaches. Sahlin Wallenius is expected to spend most, if not all, of this season with the AHL’s Barracuda.

But the smooth-skating lefty could be a dark horse to impress out of camp this season. He’s performed admirably against men in what many believe to be the world’s second best league, has NHL-caliber feet and moves the puck well without cheating the defensive side of the game. He has a slight size advantage over the two defensemen above him on this list, and, in my opinion, possesses the highest floor of all three. While I don’t see first-pairing upside, I believe Sahlin Wallenius has the best statistical chance of any player on this list to become a dependable, minute-munching top-four defenseman on a good team. At worst, I think he’s an above average number five that can plug into your top four whenever necessary. At best, I could see a Gustav Forsling-like projection – a defender who can log heavy minutes, add some modest offense, and consistently keep the puck moving in the right direction.

It will be interesting to see how Sahlin Wallenius adjusts to the pace of North American hockey and the smaller ice sheet. He’ll have forecheckers on him faster, and less room to maneuver east-west on breakouts. But the smaller confines of the North American rink could really benefit Sahlin Wallenius, if he can learn to use his superior skating to bait forwards in and burst around them to jumpstart the rush. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a few NHL games this year, and I imagine Barracuda coach John McCarthy will throw a lot of responsibility Sahlin Wallenius’ way at the AHL level when players like Pohlkamp and Cagnoni are with the big club.

8 – Luca Cagnoni, LHD. (6)

Ht/Wt: 5’9 180 Age: 21

2026-27 league: AHL/NHL (San Jose Barracuda/Sharks)

Despite a slight dip in production, Cagnoni made major strides in his second full professional season. Once again, Cagnoni led the Barracuda defense in scoring and quarterbacked a deadly first power play unit. But as a rookie, Cagnoni was largely a power play specialist who was often sheltered at even strength. This past season, with several veteran departures on the Barracuda blue line, Cagnoni was tasked with significantly more defensive responsibility and proved himself up to the challenge. This season, I started to see a lot more of the gritty, stick-first checking style he employed at the junior level as a member of the Portland Winterhawks. The WHL is a bit of a rough-and-tumble league that requires some grimy work in the corners. There was a confident nastiness in the way Cagnoni defended at that level that had been missing from his pro game, and he reinserted it this season.

Those strides in his own end were perhaps most apparent during a short stint with the Sharks toward the end of the season. Cagnoni had a few bright moments at the NHL level when he first debuted in 2024-25, but looked largely overmatched defensively. He struggled to break pucks out or gain separation from forecheckers with his feet. His pace with the puck was too meticulous, and without it he was bullied to the outside by larger forwards, unable to get his stick into optimal position. During his short call-up this past season he looked like a completely different player – immediately and proactively engaged in battles, stick on puck, finding ways to get under bigger forwards and use his lower center of gravity for leverage. With the puck, he looked more decisive and crisp.

At his size, Cagnoni will probably never be a top-four defenseman. His slight drop in this year’s rankings reflect that reality. He doesn’t have the elite acceleration and escapability of the similarly diminutive Lane Hutson, at least not at this point in his career – though as a smaller player still in his early 20s, he will likely develop a more explosive first step as his body matures. That said, I think any worries that Cagnoni will end up an AHL/NHL tweener have been largely assuaged. As long as he can provide serviceable third pairing minutes at even strength, his skill with the puck and on the power play will keep him employed as a full-time NHLer someday.

7 – Eric Pohlkamp, RHD. (7)

Ht/Wt: 5’11 210 Age: 22

2026-27 league: AHL/NHL (San Jose Barracuda/Sharks)

I debated ranking Pohlkamp as high as four on this list, and may regret my decision to be conservative this season after serving as conductor of the Pohlkamp hype train these past few years. The stocky young defenseman has done nothing but get better and exceed expectations since the Sharks drafted him back in 2023 — and he’s coming off perhaps the most impressive season of his hockey career. He was a top-three Hobey Baker finalist. He led the NCAA in goals by a defenseman with 16, and tied an all-time league record in the process. He was the most utilized defenseman on a powerhouse University of Denver team that won its second National Championship in three years.

As if all that wasn’t quite enough, he also made his pro debut with the San Jose Barracuda. Injured. In the playoffs. And dominated. Pohlkamp started his first pro game — an elimination contest, I might add — as a third-pairing defenseman. That didn’t last long. By the second period, he was head coach John McCarthy’s most-deployed defender, and looked like the best player on the ice. Over the years, I’ve watched a few players jump directly into the AHL and look immediately too good for the league. Joe Pavelski comes most readily to mind. Pohlkamp matched that level in his pro debut.

While many fans and analysts have Luca Cagnoni pencilled into the Sharks lineup this coming season, I believe the sixth and final everyday roster spot on San Jose’s blue line is Pohlkamp’s to lose. He’s a right-handed defender and his shot is a tremendous weapon, one that would transform the San Jose power play. His creativity and pace with the puck also feel like a perfect match for the deep, skilled forward corps Grier has assembled. Pohlkamp is more physically adept and mature than Cagnoni, and despite his relative lack of pro experience he has been playing against grown men longer. Many high-end collegiate players skip the AHL entirely, and I’ve long anticipated that path for Pohlkamp.

Ultimately, I ranked him behind players like Musty and Bystedt because I think the most likely outcome for Pohlkamp is still to become a very good third-pairing defender or powerplay specialist. He will always have detractors due to his size, even with the physical bent to his game. Modern GMs value reach and length on defense, so he’ll need to offer consistent offensive production to become more than a 6/7 guy on a good team. But I firmly believe in his top-four upside and I think the path for him in San Jose is wide open. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pohlkamp becomes an immediate and significant NHL contributor right out of the gate next season. He is one of my favorite prospects in the entire system and I think he’ll wear a letter at the highest level someday.

6 – Filip Bystedt, C. (10)

Ht/Wt: 6’4 205 Age: 22

2026-27 league: AHL/NHL (San Jose Barracuda/Sharks)

Bystedt was very impressive for the Barracuda as the team’s undisputed first-line center last season. He led the team in scoring with 60 points in 65 games, including 22 goals, and was particularly dangerous as a surprising trigger option on the vaunted Barracuda powerplay. It was those gains in his offensive game that made him one of the biggest risers on this year’s list, jumping from 10 last July all the way to six. Though he has been a long-term project, the big, rangy center has improved every season since making the transition to North American pro hockey in late 2024. He has learned to use his size more frequently and effectively, both in his own end and in the offensive zone. He played in all situations last season, and was an effective penalty killer in addition to a power play weapon.

Bystedt skates well and transports pucks through the neutral zone with an effective confidence. He reminds me of a less polished but perhaps more skilled version of Alex Wennberg. Though he projects as a third-line center in San Jose, I could see Bystedt as a borderline two-way 2C on a middling team. At the very least, he’ll be a high-end 3C that can move up or down the lineup when needed. I could also see him having the versatility to shift over to the wing, where his size and underrated shot would be valuable attributes.

Some fans wonder if Bystedt’s immediate path to NHL time is blocked, but he’ll be the first man up if the Sharks suffer any injuries down the middle next season. He can also start his NHL career at the wing. As a slow but steady developer, it would make sense to ease Bystedt into a full-time NHL role over the next 2-3 seasons. I expect he’ll get a short term call-up or two this year, and play significant NHL games the following season when bottom-six veterans like Adam Gaudette and Barclay Goodrow come off the books.

5 – Quentin Musty, LW. (4)

Ht/Wt: 6’2 200 Age: 21

2026-27 league: AHL/NHL (San Jose Barracuda/Sharks)

Musty’s stock has seemingly dropped for a large contingent of fans, but I think that all comes down to familiarity, fatigue and the presence of so many shiny new toys. Musty has been in the Sharks’ system long enough that he was once one of its two or three most intriguing prospects. That reality shifted in a big way after the 2024 draft, a class that saw both Macklin Celebrini and Igor Chernyshov added to the organization. Then, back-to-back second overall selections Michael Misa and Ivar Stenberg joined an already crowded group of elite young forwards. Both pushed Musty down the depth chart, while simultaneously leeching away attention and mindshare from the former first rounder.

It also didn’t help that Musty was awkwardly on the bubble as a prospect his first two training camps, forced to either make the NHL team or return to the OHL — a league he’d largely dominated. The will he/won’t he dynamic of those training camp performances created a mystique around Musty that simply no longer exists now that he’s eligible for AHL games. All of those external narratives are now distracting from the reality of Musty’s first full pro season — it was an objective success. In 61 games with the Barracuda, Musty racked up 21 goals and 45 points. He also finished strong, with 10 points in his final eight games of the season. His drop from four to five in this year’s rankings isn’t a reflection on his play, he was simply leapfrogged by a few very high-end additions to the pool.

There are still questions about whether or not Musty’s game will translate to the NHL level, but there were questions about whether it would translate to the AHL level, too. He answered those questions last season, quickly working his way onto a very dangerous top line alongside fellow prospects Chernyshov and Filip Bystedt. His high-end vision and playmaking were on full display, and he was a central cog for a Barracuda power play that was second best in the entire AHL. He scored pretty goals, and greasy ones. Some of the tendencies that plagued him in juniors — like hanging onto the puck for too long, or making low-percentage plays in the neutral zone to force offense — are still present, but they’ve been greatly reduced. Ultimately, you want creative players to remain creative. Musty has, while still rounding out his overall game. I think he will be a productive middle-six player in the NHL, though I do wonder whether his style and compete level fit the long-term vision in San Jose.

4 – Ryan Lin, RHD.

Ht/Wt: 5’11 178 Age: 18

2026-27 league: NCAA (Univ. of Denver)

There was no tier of players I went back and forth on more than this one, and I considered Musty, Bystedt and Pohlkamp over Lin at this spot. But at the end of the day, I believe Lin has objectively the highest floor and arguably the highest potential upside of all three. Lin, drafted 20th overall by the Sharks in June, had 14 goals and 57 points in 53 games for the WHL’s Vancouver Giants last year, where he served as alternate captain. He’ll join defending National Champion University of Denver in the fall and continue his development under decorated head coach David Carle.

What sets Lin apart for me is his skating and intelligence. He is an excellent skater, but he doesn’t over-use his feet. He is extremely efficient with his movement, which gives him the energy to burst into open space or away from forecheckers when required. What allows Lin to be so economical with his energy expenditure is pure, unadulterated smarts. He knows instinctively where to be as a release valve against forechecking pressure, and knows exactly where he’s going to move the puck next before he receives it so that he’s rarely taking avoidable contact. Despite his size, he defends very well — particularly against the rush.

Lin is also quietly slippery, and will disappear outside the play entirely before darting back in to create an odd-man rush or scoring chance. Though he doesn’t have high-end offensive flash, Lin projects as the type of player who will rack up a lot of points playing alongside elite, creative talents because he can match their raw skill with his hockey IQ. His offensive instincts are highly adept, even if he doesn’t have one specific standout trait. I could easily see Lin as a perennial 40-50 point player in a system that values his best attributes, and he projects the kind of calm, collected presence that allows winning teams to take a breath under pressure. I think he will end up as the second or third-best defenseman on a championship-caliber team.

Tier Two — Top of the lineup

This tier is made up of players that project as top of the lineup contributors — first pairing defenders, top six forwards or starting goaltenders — with a high probability of reaching that projection.

3 – Keaton Verhoeff, RHD.

Ht/Wt: 6’4 208 Age: 18

2026-27 league: NCAA (Univ. of North Dakota)

Fans and analysts are somewhat divided on Verhoeff as a prospect, and I certainly see both sides of the argument. On one hand, Verhoeff made the mature choice to challenge himself by playing NCAA hockey — as a defenseman and with a highly competitive program, no less — at just 17 years old. It exposed flaws in his game that he will need to fix if he hopes to have a long and productive NHL career, which was the ultimate intention of his decision. From a development perspective, it was the right move. But it also impacted his perception among scouts around the league, and Verhoeff — long considered a top-two prospect in his class — dropped down draft boards and fell to San Jose at ninth overall.

Verhoeff has warts, most of which are par for the course when we’re talking about skilled, offensively-inclined defensemen. He has a tendency to over-handle the puck in his own end and can get into trouble when he delays decisions in the name of creativity. That’s the cost of doing business if you want to drive offense from the back end. When it comes to his play without the puck, Verhoeff is both committed and capable. He also has the size to shut down plays and wrap up forwards along the boards with an impressive wingspan, and is already very strong for his age. Verhoeff has all of the skills, tools and attributes to be a two-way top-pairing defenseman, and desired handedness to boot.

The one larger concern that does give me pause is Verhoeff’s skating. It’s a well-documented weakness, and one the player himself has acknowledged. It’s a key priority of both his offseason and in-season training, and something he knows he’ll need to improve before he makes the jump to pro hockey. One of Verhoeff’s greatest strengths is his ability to unleash a wicked shot from the point, but even at the NCAA level he is often under duress from a pressuring winger who’s just a bit too close for comfort. Those shots will get blocked by pro forwards, at best causing the offense to break down and at worst generating an odd-man rush the other way. If Verhoeff can get his skating up to NHL average, he’ll have true top-pairing upside. But he also has a high floor, and should be able to eat top-four minutes even if he doesn’t hit his highest projection.

2 – Joshua Ravensbergen, G. (5)

Ht/Wt: 6’5 181 Age: 19

2026-27 league: NCAA (Michigan St.)

There might not be a Sharks prospect who saw his stock rise more this past season than 6’5” right-catching goaltender Joshua Ravensbergen. After the Sharks surprised fans and analysts alike by taking him 30th overall in the 2025 entry draft — making him the highest-drafted goaltender in franchise history — Ravensbergen responded by dominating junior hockey with a .919 save percentage and 2.51 goals against average as undisputed starter for the Prince George Cougars. He posted a 32-13-0 record, and was named the WHL’s Goaltender of the Year. He also served as backup for the Canadian World Junior squad, and should be the team’s starter during next year’s tournament.

Ravensbergen, with his size, athleticism and draft pedigree, already had the potential to be a number one goaltender in the NHL. Now, he looks like he might have the potential to be a bona fide star player at the position. Elite starting goaltenders are a rare and precious commodity in the modern NHL, and homegrown talents are even more valuable. The Sharks now have an organizational insurance policy in place should projected future starter Yaroslav Askarov fail to reach his potential — or, if he simply becomes too expensive down the line.

But Ravensbergen will face his biggest challenge yet this season, when he graduates from junior hockey to the NCAA. It won’t be a relaxed transition, either. Ravensbergen is projected to start for the Michigan State Spartans, where he’ll follow longtime starter and Detroit Red Wings prospect Trey Augustine, widely considered to be one of the best young goaltenders in the world. Michigan State, a perennially competitive team, will have designs on a Frozen Four appearance. If Ravensbergen is up to the task right away, we could see his pro career start as soon as next season. More likely, he’ll benefit from at least two years adjusting to NCAA pace and shooters.

Tier One — Elite

This tier is made up of players that project as league stars and one of the top 3-5 players on a contending team — first line or elite second line forwards, top pairing defenders and franchise goaltenders.

1 – Ivar Stenberg, LW.

Ht/Wt: 6’0 190 Age: 18

2026-27 league: NHL (San Jose Sharks)

If San Jose’s stacked prospect group up front was missing one thing, it was an elite left winger with first line potential. Stenberg fills that void, with high-end puck skill, a blistering shot and a relentless motor to match. He is a menace on the forecheck, and dismantles defenses with his stick handling in tight. His ability to attack and retreat in small spaces is astonishing to watch, particularly against his own age group — a chapter of his career that is likely closed after one of the most dominant draft eligible SHL seasons in hockey history.

Stenberg, who will enter his first North American pro season eligible to play for both the Sharks and Barracuda, is expected to make his NHL debut immediately out of camp. While there’s an outside shot of Stenberg seeing AHL time — during the NHL all-star break, or the big club’s subsequent bye week, perhaps — his production against men in the SHL and World Championships indicate a player not just ready to play in the NHL, but to make meaningful contributions right away.

Stylistically, Stenberg is a perfect fit for the high-event, high-pace forward group Grier has started to build around franchise center Macklin Celebrini. He is creative with the puck, relentless off the puck, plays with speed and possesses a strong two-way foundation. He is highly intelligent and sees the ice at an elite level. The one knock on Stenberg — his lack of ideal size along the wall — he compensates for with high-end compete and a crafty, strong stick. Like Celebrini, Stenberg also excels at dropping pucks back into his feet to protect it from opposing defenders, then uses his superior small space skill to buy room and retain possession. He can fit into the team’s long-term forecast as both a high-end complimentary piece on a top line, or as the driving force behind an elite second unit, and projects as a point-per-game, star-level player.

Welcome to a very special episode of The Macklin Years podcast, as this week we welcome former Shark and NHL Network analyst Jason Demers! Not only is Jason the first former NHLer and Shark to grace our show — he’s also our first Olympian!

JD joins us to talk about a host of topics, including his burgeoning post-playing career as an analyst and content creator. We also discuss the current Sharks roster, playoff expectations, new contracts for Collin Graf and Macklin Celebrini, and San Jose’s new-look defense. And, we debate the three youngsters battling for a spot on the blue line — Luca Cagnoni, Eric Pohlkamp and Nolan Allan.

Next, we take a quick detour to talk team culture. Is JD worried at all about losing three big personalities like Mario Ferraro, Vinny Desharnais and Ryan Reaves in a single summer? JD and Ty also discuss the way they were taught to defend, and how coaching has evolved since the 90s and early 2000s.

Plus, we chat with JD about his passion for the game and his unique ability to bring the player perspective home in a way that’s accessible to fans of all knowledge levels. And of course, we have to ask him a few questions about those classic early 2010s Sharks teams, and what it was like to break into the league on a powerhouse squad with perennial Stanley Cup designs.

Expect to see more of JD this year, as he’ll be re-joining the Sharks broadcast team as an in-game and studio analyst for select contests throughout the coming season. You can also check out his video breakdowns and intimate stories of pro hockey life by following “The Bite with Jason Demers” on YouTube and Substack.

A huge thank you to JD for his time and generosity, and to our listeners — we hope you enjoy this as much as we did.

Now that Mike Grier and the Sharks are seemingly done with major offseason additions, it would seem a fairly dry exercise to make another identical update to our offseason trade and UFA big board. The most intriguing names are long gone, including a trio of players that will call San Jose home for the next several years. The roster’s most glaring deficiencies have been addressed. The pieces, however they might line up, are largely in place.

So instead of making history’s least-captivating list of trade and free agent targets — who would only be taking jobs from young, homegrown players most fans find far more compelling anyway — let’s take a closer look at the three players Grier added from our first offseason big board. As a refresher, you can find that article here — and the subsequent update here.

Trade and UFA targets were ranked based on a cumulative points system that evaluates and weighs a series of positive and negative factors, like availability, fit and cost.

Michael Kesselring

No. 2 among trade targets with 31 total points.

Grier began his offseason extravaganza by trading for Kesselring about a week before the NHL draft. Kesselring was ranked second among all trade targets on our first list, behind former Buffalo teammate Bowen Byram and just ahead of top-pairing Vancouver defenseman Filip Hronek. Kesselring isn’t the proven quantity Hronek can claim to be, nor does he have the offensive upside of Byram. But long- and short-term fit, availability and a relatively low expected cost helped him climb our initial ranking.

The Breakdown

Impact: 4/10. Kesselring has the potential to be a top-four defenseman on a good team, but is coming off of a difficult year and still has a lot to prove. This is a conservative score that Kesselring could easily outperform. Worst case, he will be a marked improvement over last season’s most frequently utilized third-pairing options.

Availability: 10/10. Kesselring was very publicly on the trade block, and it was an open secret that San Jose was his preferred destination. As a pending RFA, he had just enough leverage for one to assume the Sharks would have an inside track — as long as they were willing to meet the asking price.

Trade Protections: 10/10. Trade protections complicate trades. Kesselring didn’t have any.

Roster Fit: 6/10. As a big, mobile right-hander, Kesselring filled an obvious gap on the existing San Jose roster and checked multiple boxes along the way. Had he been coming off a season like the one he had in Utah two years ago, this score would have undoubtedly been higher. But the Sharks, with only Dmitry Orlov on the roster as a reliable top-four option, still needed proven quantities over potential. That’s changed now, which one could argue makes Kesselring an even better roster fit than this initial score indicates.

Organizational Fit: 6/10. At just 26, Kesselring is young enough to grow with San Jose’s emerging core. With his size and skill set, he fits a profile largely missing from San Jose’s ample prospect pipeline — even after a 2026 draft that saw the Sharks add two talented right-handed defenders. He’s experienced enough to contribute significant minutes in a meaningful role right now. But he’s young enough that there might be another level to his game.

Market: 3/10. Crowded markets drive up prices, and Kesselring’s might have been artificially limited by his one poor season in Buffalo. Most contenders (or at least those who see themselves that way) are looking for proven quantities. Kesselring, at least to some degree, represents a bet on potential. Throw in his pending RFA status, and the market was fairly light — particularly for a 6’5” righty who skates well.

Cost: 2/10. For all the reasons listed above, it was assumed Kesselring wouldn’t cost much to acquire. That turned out to be true, with the Sharks giving up just seven slots in the late first round to get him.

Darnell Nurse

No. 9 among trade targets with 27 total points.

Nurse is an interesting case. Although he was ranked fairly high on our first list at ninth among trade targets, his point total was brought down considerably by trade protections that, at the time, he seemed prepared to flex. It was widely reported that Nurse had submitted a three-team approved trade list, one that did not include San Jose. As we now know, that eventually changed. Had San Jose been on Nurse’s approved list, he’d have been near or at the top of our first trade board.

The Breakdown

Impact: 7/10. Nurse takes a lot of criticism thanks to an inflated annual salary, but his on-ice impact is undeniable even if it doesn’t quite justify the paycheck. Nurse has been a top-four defenseman for essentially his entire career, and played that role for Edmonton during consecutive runs to the Stanley Cup final. He’s versatile, physical, skates well, can contribute offense, and adds a ton of size to a San Jose lineup that sorely needed it.

Availability: 10/10. Any player who submits a trade request, regardless of trade protections, scores at the top of the scale here.

Trade Protections: 2/10. Despite his trade request, Nurse had a full no-move clause and an apparent preference for the Eastern Conference. At the time, it seemed unlikely he would waive to join the Sharks.

Roster Fit: 7/10. No surprise here — any proven top-four defenseman is a good fit on a team starved for proven top-four defensemen. Nurse’s size and production levels check additional boxes for the Sharks. If he were a natural righty, Nurse would have scored two points higher here. And as a straight replacement for Shakir Mukhamadullin on the left side, I’d rank him at 8/10 rather than 7/10.

Organizational Fit: 3/10. This is where Nurse really got dinged in our initial ranking, thanks in large part to the money and term left on his deal. Again, the additional context of replacing Mukhamadullin as a one-for-one upgrade casts Nurse in a more favorable light. Knowing that, I’d bump him into average territory at a 4/10. But at the time, it seemed the 31-year-old veteran could crowd out younger, developing players on the left side.

Market: 1/10. This was an obvious miss — the market for Nurse’s services was fairly significant, especially with the potential of salary retention on the table. I assumed the Oilers would have to pay to unload Nurse, even at a reduced rate. But with the salary cap rising and the market for proven top-four defensemen extremely limited, Nurse generated quite a bit of interest. This score should have been 4/10 at minimum.

Cost: 1/10. Again, this was a miss, albeit one that could be justified with a bit of shoe-horned context. I expected Nurse to come with a sweetener if the Sharks acquired him at full freight. Instead, he cost Grier a young roster player and a midrange prospect. That’s a higher than anticipated price — but compared to what other teams paid to add top-four pieces on the blue line, it feels relatively painless. Still, this number should have been at least a point or two higher.

Jacob Trouba

No. 1 among UFA targets with 29 total points.

The hard-hitting, right-handed Trouba topped our first offseason UFA list, ahead of flashier names like Darren Raddysh and Rasmus Andersson. A big, physical, proven, top-four defenseman who plays the right side, Trouba checked just about every box for the Sharks. Headed into an offseason with clear stated priorities around getting harder to play against without the puck and more mobile with it, Trouba — renowned for thunderous hits and coming off a 10-goal, 35-point season — felt like a natural fit. The only real negative factors working against him? A crowded market for his services, and a stated preference for significant term.

The Breakdown

Impact: 7/10. Like Nurse, Trouba is a proven top-four defender. The Sharks are (or rather, were) a team in desperate need of more. Trouba’s age and reliance on a very talented Jackson LaCombe in Anaheim kept his score from going any higher, despite his desired handedness, but his physicality and fear-inducing play style on the blue line are elements the Sharks lacked last season.

Availability: 10/10. It seemed fairly likely Trouba would go to market, given the dearth of defensive talent available. He was sure to find a significant payday, and it didn’t seem Anaheim was particularly interested in bringing him back.

Interest: 8/10. After a successful stint with a young, ascending Anaheim club, it felt like Trouba would be open to a similar situation in San Jose. An in-state move is easier on a young family like Trouba’s. His wife, Kelly, is a practicing physician and career opportunities for her are a critical family priority. Opportunities abound in San Jose, just minutes south of Stanford and a number of other first-rate medical facilities.

Roster Fit: 9/10. As a big, mobile right-hander who can play reliable minutes in all situations, Trouba fills a glaring and immediate need on the current San Jose roster. He has an excellent shot, moves the puck proficiently and should act as a protector for the younger, less experienced players on San Jose’s revamped blue line.

Organizational Fit: 7/10. Trouba’s veteran mentorship should make him the ideal partner for young left-handed defensemen like Sam Dickinson, Luca Cagnoni and Leo Sahlin Wallenius over the next 3-4 seasons. He’s a veteran and former NHL captain with significant leadership and playoff experience, which will help the Sharks as they move into a more competitive phase for the franchise. At 32, he’s young enough to contribute for multiple years as a bridge player.

Market: 5/10. Though I expected the market for Trouba to be fairly crowded, I also expected he would price himself out for most true contenders. Simply by going to market, Trouba would be making his priorities clear — money, and term. With a limited crop of UFAs to compete with, it was likely he’d get both from someone. The Sharks were a team capable of threading that needle, but not many others are.

Projected Contract: 7/10. I actually expected someone to offer Trouba five or even six years at a slightly more digestible AAV — and perhaps they did. But at the very least, it seemed unlikely he was going to settle for anything less than four unless the money was astronomical. Stability was an important factor in Trouba’s decision making process. In an ideal world, I think the Sharks would have liked to add a veteran player of Trouba’s caliber for two or three years here rather than four. But that simply wasn’t an available option, and four years is a lot more digestible than the five or six I worried Trouba might command.

Defense has been an issue for the San Jose Sharks since Mike Grier took over as general manager way back in July of 2022. That summer, he shipped former Norris winner and fan favorite Brent Burns to the Carolina Hurricanes, the first major move in what would become a multi-season teardown of Team Teal’s existing roster.

Behind him, Burns left the supremely talented Erik Karlsson on an island by himself for one, single season. Karlsson, the yoke of competitive expectations lifted, played that campaign like an old-school rover, put up 100 points and won a Norris of his own. It was enough to rehabilitate one of the league’s worst contracts at the time. The following summer, Karlsson was on the move to Pittsburgh.

Since then, the Sharks have been without a true number one defenseman. Instead, they’ve relied on enormous contributions from players better suited for second or even third-pairing roles — Mario Ferraro, Jake Walman, Dmitry Orlov. Behind them, a hodgepodge of aging veterans, reclamation projects and minor-league call-ups have struggled mightily to mop up the remaining minutes.

Last summer, Grier made his most significant additions yet on defense, adding Orlov — whose abilities, while undeniable, are in decline — along with John Klingberg and Nick Leddy. The presence of Orlov helped stabilize San Jose’s blue line to some degree. Klingberg and Leddy delivered inconsistent results at best. They were hopeful swings more than targeted acquisitions, and fell predictably short.

Still, the Sharks managed to claw within four points of a playoff spot with perhaps the weakest crop of defenders in the entire NHL. Turning that group into a cup-caliber corps was always going to take a lot longer than a single offseason. But how about one that can get this talented young group of forwards into the playoffs? That, Grier may have achieved already.

For the second summer in a row, San Jose added three veteran pieces on defense — left-hander Darnell Nurse and right-hander Michael Kesselring, both acquired via trade, and fellow right-hander Jacob Trouba, signed as an unrestricted free agent. At first blush, it’s a trio without much flash. The Sharks aren’t adding an infusion of elite skill on the back end, or a single towering presence capable of delivering 25+ winning minutes on a nightly basis. But they didn’t need to.

Grier has assembled an above-average group of forwards, one that features a level of depth several legitimate contenders would envy. All they need behind them to succeed is an average NHL defense. I would argue, despite the lack of a true top-pairing player, that the group Grier has cobbled together headed into next season is at least average — if not better. It includes three players proven capable of playing 20+ minutes a night on a playoff-caliber team. It features at least one young player with high-end potential, perhaps as many as three. And it includes a young veteran with his best years still ahead, rather than in the rear view mirror.

On paper, Grier has improved his team significantly. But what really stands out about the defense he’s built is its potential to outperform the sum of its parts. There’s no statistic that measures chemistry, but over the years you start to develop an eye for its potential. This group has it.

When attempting to assess the potential chemistry or fit between players, there’s an obvious place to start — complementary skill. Do the players in question possess positive traits that mesh well with the players around them? That’s a critical piece of the equation, but ranks second in importance to its other half — compensatory skills.

Every player in the NHL has skills and deficiencies, because they’re human beings. We all have things we’re good at, things we’re bad at, and everything in between. Our deficiencies and our skills interact to create results, and those results can look wildly different depending on who we have around us. Do we have to compensate for them? Do they have to compensate for us? In any functioning group of people, the answer is almost always both. When those two realities are well balanced, we call it chemistry.

A hockey team is no different, it’s just a more acute representation. These are elite athletes, moving at a high pace. When the chemistry is present, it plugs into a context that flows rapidly from one incident into the next. Incremental gains stack up quickly and feel like an exponential advantage. Before long, you’re watching a team actively outperform its projection simply because the pieces fit together a certain way.

We won’t know whether or not these Sharks have chemistry until they hit the ice in October, but on paper it sure feels like Grier has gone out of his way to identify players that build on each other’s strengths while making up for each other’s weaknesses.

This group has significant size, and brings a physical presence. Sam Dickinson, Jacob Trouba, Michael Kesselring and Darnell Nurse are all 6’3” or taller. Dmitry Orlov is the only projected top-four defenseman on the roster under 6’0, and he’s one of the team’s fiercest open-ice hitters. Even 5’10 rookie pro Eric Pohlkamp, who may start his season in the AHL but will almost certainly see NHL games at some point this season, is known for throwing his weight around frequently and effectively.

It’s a defense built to intimidate and frustrate opponents, but one also architected to compensate for perhaps the most skilled player among the group — 5’9” Luca Cagnoni. It’s easy to imagine Cagnoni finding more time and space alongside a feared physical presence like Trouba, or defending in his own end more effectively with the help of a rangy partner like Kesselring.

This group also skates quite well, with Nurse, Dickinson, Kesselring, Cagnoni, Pohlkamp and Trouba all known for either quick feet or excellent edge work. Again, that matches the fast-paced, quick-up style Grier wants matched with his skilled forward corps, but also insulates an aging veteran like Orlov, helping him to remain more effective even as his foot speed declines.

And although there might not be a 60-point, no-doubt PP1 quarterback on the current roster, Grier has put together a defensive corps capable of generating above average offense, one through seven. Cagnoni has run the AHL’s best power play for the past two seasons. Pohlkamp led all NCAA defensemen in goals last year. Dickinson was the OHL’s leading scorer among defensemen the year before his rookie NHL season. Trouba, Nurse and Orlov have all eclipsed the 30-point plateau multiple times at the NHL level, including at least once in the past two seasons. Kesselring managed just two assists last year, but tallied 50 combined points the two seasons prior.

To a man, this defense is adept with the puck and can contribute on the scoresheet. That kind of balance will better pave the way for a young, skilled player like Dickinson, Cagnoni or Pohlkamp to unexpectedly deliver a breakthrough performance. There’s no external pressure to perform at that level, which makes it far more likely one of them will.

Which brings me to my favorite aspect of this remade Sharks defense — for the first time in a long time, there are as many answers as there are questions.

Will Dickinson evolve into a top-four defenseman this season? We don’t know. Will Pohlkamp and Cagnoni even be full-time NHL players? That remains a mystery. Can Kesselring get his career back on track? Your guess is as good as mine. But those unknowns are entirely acceptable this time around, because we know who Darnell Nurse is as a player. We know the same about Jacob Trouba, and Dmitry Orlov. We know that this team will have at least three proven, capable defensemen patrolling the blue line for 20+ minutes a night.

At its worst, this will be a slightly stretched defense that has to carry a few developing players through the early stumbles of their respective careers. But what could it look like at its best? There’s a lot of upside here, and it’s a group that can really only surprise us in a positive way.

Perhaps Cagnoni or Pohlkamp or Kesselring or Dickinson will struggle. That’s par for the course when you’re developing young defensemen, and a reality the Sharks can live with. But maybe one of them takes flight, and becomes a high-end contributor right off the hop. Suddenly, an average defense looks pretty dangerous. What was once a bubble team becomes a threat to win the Pacific.

The question marks are no longer just a source of anxiety. They inspire curiosity — perhaps even optimism. That’s a marked shift for the franchise, and one that should have fans eager for autumn.

After an electric start to the month, July has slowed way down in Sharks Territory. Macklin Celebrini made the most notable headline of this past week when he was named the IIHF’s male player of the year. He’ll also be on the cover of EA Sports’ NHL27, set for release in early September, and become the youngest player ever to do so.

Both are undeniably cool achievements, but neither is particularly grabbing if you’re a Sharks fan, waiting on tenterhooks for some very different Celebrini-related news. A contract extension, perhaps?

Celebrini broke his silence on the matter in an interview with ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski, who asked the young superstar point blank whether or not he’d consider taking less money to help facilitate a more competitive roster around him. Celebrini confirmed it was something he’d thought about, one of many factors to consider in negotiations.

That’s reason for optimism, to be sure. But it’s far from a guarantee. I’ve considered what it might be like to bungee jump into the Grand Canyon, but I have absolutely no plans to do it. Until pen is put to paper, the nerves of the fanbase won’t be calmed by circumstantial evidence.

All of this curiosity (and anxiety) around Celebrini’s next contract ultimately comes down to one thing — cap structure. Will he be the league’s highest paid player, one who carries an annual average value that leaves the Sharks shopping for bargains every summer to fill out the roster? Or will his deal be digestible, and allow for the Sharks to spend on cup-caliber depth?

This won’t be the last time Sharks fans will have to ask those questions, either. With a prospect pipeline full of elite talent, Celebrini’s extension will be just one of many monster contracts handed out if all goes to plan. As unpredictable as Celebrini’s next deal feels, Mike Grier and his team at least have a range in mind. It’s a wide one, sure. But it’s infinitely more insight than they have into what Michael Misa’s next contract might look like, or Ivar Stenberg’s, or Sam Dickinson’s.

That lack of certainty is the necessary downside to a full-scale rebuild that goes well at its foundational stage. The Sharks set out to accrue an embarrassment of elite young talent, and did just that. Now, they’ll have to juggle the reality of double digit ELCs, all expiring within a few years of each other, in a rapidly shifting financial landscape that has altered monetary expectations across the entire NHL.

This very long preamble brings us to perhaps the most intriguing Sharks-related news of the past few days — a report from Mike McIntyre of the Winnipeg Free Press indicating that the team might have interest in Vezina-winning goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck and recently-signed Sharks goaltender Eric Comrie apparently had a very close working relationship as a tandem in Winnipeg. McIntyre wonders if the Sharks might have brought Comrie on board to strengthen their pitch to Hellebuyck, who holds a full no-move clause.

It’s a rumor without any real basis in reality, little more than a speculative hunch. It would require the Sharks to essentially remake their entire goaltending tandem in a single summer, which feels very unlikely. It would mean Alex Nedeljkovic out as backup just months after signing a two-year contract extension. It would mean giving up on Yaroslav Askarov, who forced his way out of Nashville specifically because he didn’t want to wait behind two established NHL goaltenders. Even if Askarov were willing to play AHL games, he’s not waivers exempt. Languishing as a third-string NHLer won’t help his development, nor does it make sense for the Sharks, who gave up premium assets to acquire him.

Taking that larger context into consideration, it’s an easy rumor to dismiss. It’s one of those ideas that feels like it only makes sense to an outsider, someone with a surface-level understanding of the team and its holistic goals. The Sharks have cap space, intentions to compete soon and question marks in net. They have the assets to acquire an elite piece. San Jose has seemingly become the fallback destination anytime a star player becomes available. It’s a lazy yet justifiable fit.

But there’s one reason acquiring a player like Hellebuyck actually makes perfect sense for the Sharks, and it ties back to the financial uncertainty around San Jose’s future stars. Hellebuyck is an established, elite player, making a palatable salary with significant term. His current deal — which has five years remaining at a very reasonable $8.5M cap hit — was signed in the flat-cap era. With the cap rapidly rising, and elite players starting to command $17-18M annually, those flat-cap contracts have become arguably the most valuable asset in the league.

Thanks to a to-the-studs teardown, the Sharks don’t have many contracts like that on their ledger. Only Tyler Toffoli and Dmitry Orlov would fully qualify, neither with more than two years left on their respective contracts. You could make an argument for the extensions handed out to Kiefer Sherwood and Alex Wennberg, which both look like bargains after the league-wide madness of July 1. But none of those players represent elite, core pieces. Grier will have to negotiate new deals for all of his most important players within a new and far more expensive reality.

Askarov, at least the Sharks hope, is one of those players. He was acquired to be San Jose’s elite number one goaltender of the future. Best case, he hits that projection. If he does, he’ll cost the Sharks a lot more than $8.5M per season. It probably wouldn’t be long before the Sharks looked to unload him in favor of a younger, cheaper Joshua Ravensbergen. Worst case, Askarov never becomes that player and the Sharks are left searching for answers with Ravensbergen still years away. Hellebuyck is a proven quantity, who comes at a fixed price. In those terms, it becomes a bit easier to see the appeal.

So while Hellebuyck might not make the most sense for San Jose on paper, it would not particularly surprise me to see the Sharks exchange potential for certainty as Grier’s build progresses. He’ll need to find economic efficiencies wherever possible if he hopes to keep his emerging young core together long term.

In the aftermath of a very busy July 1 for the Sharks, much has changed. The team sits just $12M below the league’s $104M salary cap. And 21-year-old Anaheim pivot Leo Carlsson is now the league’s highest-paid player, setting a new economic standard for the game’s brightest young stars.

None burns brighter than San Jose’s own Macklin Celebrini, and that’s not homerism. It’s a league-wide consensus. Naturally, Carlsson’s contract — and the manner in which it was presented to him — has the whole NHL wondering what Celebrini’s next one might look like. Most observers, Sharks fans or not, agree on one thing: pay him whatever he wants, for as long as you can.

I must admit, I’ve been aboard that train for quite some time myself. Why wouldn’t the Sharks take chance out of the equation, and lock Celebrini up for the next eight years right now?

Then the Carlsson offer sheet happened. Just days after Grier had tied up $24M for the next four years in three players over the age of 31. Like many fans, I started to think about the worst case scenario. What if Celebrini demands $20M a year? The Sharks could find themselves in a cap crunch just two short seasons from now.

Predictably, Grier fielded a number of questions from the media last week about Celebrini’s possible extension, and the team’s future salary structure. As is his custom, San Jose’s stoic GM appeared confidently unfazed. We may not know his plan, but it’s clear he has one.

Make no mistake, the Carlsson offer sheet came as a major surprise to fans and analysts. But it probably wasn’t quite as big a shock within NHL circles. Why? Because Philadelphia was one of five teams that submitted formal offers to Carlsson’s camp. The league is small. GMs knew something like this was coming, even if they weren’t yet privy to the precise details. Grier was probably expecting a young player to set the market for Celebrini with an astronomical contract, long before the Flyers made their splash.

Why, then, is Grier so calm? So comfortable spending tens of millions in a July 1 shopping spree? I believe the answer lies in the ledger. An eight-year deal at league maximum for Celebrini would indeed be problematic for Grier and the Sharks. Which means Grier probably doesn’t plan to sign Celebrini to such a contract in the first place.

Let’s back up and look at the terms of Carlsson’s offer sheet. Critically, it’s a five-year deal. Carlsson, coming off of his entry-level contract, is eligible for unrestricted free agency four seasons from now. In other words, Philadelphia’s offer “bought” a season of Carlsson’s unrestricted free agency years.

NHL teams have to pay a premium for that privilege with young players. The opposite is true with veterans, jumping from one UFA deal to the next, often looking for term over annual average value. Teams are typically willing to accommodate because it keeps the cap hit down. Young players, on the other hand, require an overpay in advance, one that teams fork over hoping the annual number will eventually look like a steal. Carlsson may well be worth $18M by the end of his deal, perhaps significantly more. By no sane measure should he be the league’s highest-paid player today. That’s the tradeoff teams have to make when they buy UFA years.

What does that mean for the Sharks? Simple. If they avoid buying UFA years on Celebrini’s next deal, the annual price tag drops. That would mean signing him to an extension in the one-to-four year range rather than five-to-eight.

Of course, a one-year deal doesn’t really help San Jose or Celebrini. The Sharks would be right back where they started in a year, with even less leverage than the minuscule scraps they have left today. Celebrini would unnecessarily risk his long-term financial security with a short-term contract. At the other end of the spectrum, a four-year deal would walk Celebrini right to free agency — a nightmare scenario for the Sharks and one I have to imagine they’d avoid at all costs.

A two or three-year pact would provide Celebrini with financial security for life, and get him back to the negotiating table much sooner in a rising-cap world. He’d still be an RFA at the deal’s end, which would give the Sharks an opportunity to negotiate another long-term contract with the player still under team control. Instead of 11 guaranteed years in teal, the Sharks could secure Celebrini’s services for up to 13. It’s a win/win, in that sense, for player and team.

Where it would really help the Sharks, however, is financially. Long term, this team should have no problem throwing the bulk of its cash at its homegrown core. But now, and in the medium term, Grier needs to be able to spend that money on support pieces, established players who allow the Sharks to compete before Celebrini’s peers are ready to contribute at his level.

To do that, they need to pay Celebrini a salary that aligns with both his contributions and the current limitations of the NHL’s salary cap. The only way to accomplish both of those things at once, at least for a player of Celebrini’s ilk, is to offer a shorter-term deal.

Say Grier offers Celebrini three years at $15M per season. It would still make Celebrini one of the three highest-paid players in the league, but would buy the Sharks $5M of spare cap space in each of those three seasons. Celebrini walks away with a guaranteed $45M right now, and returns to the negotiating table in four years with a $130M salary cap at his back. Meanwhile, the Sharks have more money to spend, and a better chance to compete — perhaps even win — while Celebrini is on his bridge deal.

By the time Celebrini is eligible for his next extension, the Sharks will have a much clearer picture of just how much their other core pieces will demand. What are players like Will Smith, Michael Misa, Sam Dickinson, Ivar Stenberg and Igor Chernyshov contributing, and how much are they likely to cost the Sharks long term? Are they even in the long-term plans? Those are questions without answers today. But four years from now, when a three-year extension for Celebrini would expire? Answers abound.

Perhaps most critically, however, is that the $17.5M currently dedicated to Darnell Nurse and Jacob Trouba will come off the books right when Celebrini’s hypothetical third contract is set to begin. With said money freed up, the Sharks will have more flexibility to offer Celebrini what he’s worth over a max-term deal. If that timing was by design, it gives us a clear indicator of when the Sharks expect Celebrini to be at his most expensive.

Bridge deals are an acknowledged risk for both parties. Celebrini could regress, or suffer an injury, and leave $100M on the table. He could decide San Jose isn’t where he wants to be, and refuse to sign another contract. Or, he could become a perennial 150 point player and cost the Sharks even more per season than the $20M max he’s eligible to earn today. With the salary cap rising, the latter of these three scenarios is a virtual guarantee.

But Celebrini is already an established superstar, a reality that solidified itself about halfway through the second year of his ELC. The option to lock him up long term for less than he’s worth was never really present for the Sharks. They might still have that chance with Smith, Misa, Dickinson, Chernyshov and company. But the “discount Celebrini” ship has sailed, without a final boarding call. From here on out, it’s fiscal triage. Grier will simply have to balance the team’s financial needs with the player’s demands, as tactfully and intelligently as possible.

Now, if Celebrini is willing to sign for eight years at the same $15M price point, give the man a pen and throw this entire thesis out the window. And to be fair, that is a distinct possibility. Celebrini’s heroes and mentors have all taken less than they’re worth, and he knows that winning requires sacrifice.

But if he wants to be paid market value — and who could blame him if he did — the Sharks might need to do that in a few separate installments rather than the single mega-deal we’ve all been anticipating.

While I’ve never exactly had a natural inclination for math, I’ve always been a stats nerd when it comes to hockey. Long before advanced analytics became prominent in the world of pro sports, I would sit in front of an old desktop computer in my childhood room, pouring over scoresheets from the previous season all offseason long and trying to find patterns that weren’t obvious at first glance. It was a means of visualizing the ebbs and flows of a player’s year, and an activity my parents thought was a huge waste of time.

I remember one summer in particular, revisiting game logs from the Calgary Flames 2001-02 campaign. Jarome Iginla was the league’s only 50-goal scorer that year, and I wanted to see what a 50-goal year looked like in totality. As I combed through all 82 game sheets, I began to understand just how much unpredictability and variability there was behind even the most readily apparent successes.

Since then, before the start of each season, I’ve attempted scoring projections for the anticipated Sharks roster. Early on, they were insanely optimistic – pure guesses straight from the heart, the outcomes a kid wants to see at an age when fandom isn’t analytical, but strictly driven by passion. Over time, they’ve gotten more discerning, conservative and accurate, driven by data and analytical observation. But they still include a healthy dose of gut instinct, earned over three-plus decades as an obsessive fan, player and observer.

Last summer, I established the most sophisticated criteria I could muster as a journalism major who didn’t make it past Algebra 2 – which is to say, not very sophisticated at all – and just about hit the nail on the head. My analysis came back with two conclusions that still felt a bit too optimistic to come true. First, that the Sharks would score between 246-257 goals. Second, that they would finish the season with between 84 and 88 points.

For those keeping score at home, the Sharks tallied 251 goals – the exact average of the projected range – and finished the season with 86 points . It was an uncanny level of accuracy. Did I publish any of it at the time? Of course not. It felt far too inexact to be anything more than a fun thought exercise that lived and died in a Word document, one that nobody else ever saw. Do I wish I had? Well, yeah. I would have looked like a genius!

In reality, it might have just been a really lucky guess. Looking back at those projections, which are largely based on individual performances, I missed as often as I got it right. I predicted 30 goals for Macklin Celebrini (whoops), for example, and 27 for Jeff Skinner (yikes).

And yet, it all averaged out just as expected in the end. So this year, we’re going to put my projections to the test of public scrutiny. I won’t share the exact calculations behind the numbers, because I don’t want those of you with mathematical backgrounds to laugh at me until you keel over and pass out. But I’m going to use an identical process to the one I used last summer, which takes into account the following:

Individual Projections: How many games do I expect each player to play? Based on that number, I establish a goals scored projection using their pace from the previous year, their career shooting percentage, shots generated the previous year, and anticipated time on ice. I balance those with educated guesses at usage, line mates, quality of competition, power play time and natural growth/regression based on the player’s age and experience.

Team Projections: Based on those player projections, how many Goals For should the Sharks expect to score? This ultimately yields a range within 10-11 goals.

Team Defense: How many goals and shots did the team allow last season? What was the team save percentage? How many goals would they have allowed with a league-average team save percentage? This also yields a range within 10-11 goals.

League Comparables: Based on the projected Goals For and Goals Against, where would the Sharks have finished among league competition in each category the previous season? How many points did the teams within that range earn?

Team Comparables: Are the Sharks projected to finish in the top, bottom or middle third in goals for? Are the Sharks projected to finish in the top, bottom or middle third in goals against? Which teams finished within the same range in both categories last season, and how many points did they earn?

These criteria are then blended to generate a prediction for the team’s overall performance next season. Let’s dive in.

INDIVIDUAL + TEAM PROJECTIONS

San Jose’s skaters are first separated into categories by expected games played. Player names, along with their projected goal total range, are included under each category. For some, I’ve included a brief justification for that projection. Established players in their prime, like Macklin Celebrini or Kiefer Sherwood, are projected to score at the same rate as the year prior at the high end of their range, with a slight regression at the low end. These are intentionally conservative numbers.

Full-time: Players in the lineup every night when healthy (75+ games)

Macklin Celebrini (40-45). Last year’s totals.

Mason Marchment (18-20). Last year’s totals.

Kiefer Sherwood (22-24). Last year’s totals.

Will Smith (30-35). A modest increase for Smith, who scored at a 28-goal pace in ‘25-26.

Michael Misa (18-20). Misa scored at a 16-goal pace as a rookie. He should get more opportunity next year.

Collin Graf (12-15). A minor regression from Graf, who may not see as much time on Celebrini’s wing going forward.

Alex Wennberg (10-12). Ditto for Wennberg, who will probably see his overall ice time and PP usage dip as Misa’s increases.

Zach Ostapchuk (8-10). Ostapchuk flirts with double digit goals in his first full NHL season, a slight bump above last year’s six-goal pace.

Jacob Trouba (8-10). With a high-octane offense in front of him, Trouba should have every opportunity for a second-straight double digit goal season.

Darnell Nurse (7-9). Nurse is set to see his ice time and PP usage increase in San Jose. He still scored seven for Edmonton last season in a reduced role, and has a dangerous shot.

Sam Dickinson. (4-6). Dickinson got plenty of Grade-A looks last season but had trouble finishing. He should see that rate tick up as a second-year player.

Dmitry Orlov (3-5). Orlov won’t be relied on to do as much this next year, which will hurt his point totals. But it could help his goal production, which was tied for the lowest output of his career last season.

Michael Kesselring (6-8). After a down year, expect Kesselring to return to 2024-25 form with expanded opportunities and a fresh start. He has a big shot and good instincts for jumping in off the rush.

Everyday: Occasional healthy scratches for maintenance or development. (50-75 games)

Tyler Toffoli (14-16). Toffoli will have a lot of competition for ice time in the top nine and on the PP this season, and age is starting to catch up – but he’s still a smart, capable goal scorer. A modest drop from last year’s 19.

Igor Chernyshov (18-20). Chernyshov scored at a 28-goal pace last season, which would put him around 20 if he plays 60-65 games in his first full NHL season.

Adam Gaudette (14-16). Gaudette doesn’t need much ice time or opportunity to contribute double digit goals, but I anticipate he’ll play fewer games this coming season so a slight dip in his projection.

Ivar Stenberg (18-20). Stenberg is more NHL-ready than Will Smith was as a rookie, but will face stiffer competition for ice time and opportunity. We’ll use Smith’s rookie numbers as a base projection.

Barclay Goodrow (3-5). Assuming similar usage with a few healthy scratches here and there, Goodrow scores at roughly the same pace as last season with potential for a slight regression.

Eric Pohlkamp (5-7). A slightly aggressive projection for Pohlkamp, whose roster spot is not guaranteed. His shot is a weapon the Sharks lack, I expect him to see PP time and produce there.

Part-time: Frequent healthy scratches, lineup decision or development. (50 or fewer games)

Ty Dellandrea (1-2). Dellandrea will struggle to break into next year’s lineup with regularity, and has trouble scoring even when he plays significant minutes.

Luca Cagnoni (1-3). Cagnoni gets significant NHL games for the first time in his career, but his shot needs work to be dangerous at the next level. He’ll generate points, but a low goal total projection here.

Replacement: Injury call-ups and depth pieces, expected to play NHL games this season (30 or fewer). No individual goal projections, as these players will be replacing the ice time and opportunity of a player above.

Filip Bystedt, Ethan Cardwell, Quentin Musty, Cam Lund, Nolan Allan, Leo Sahlin Wallenius

Total Goals For (range): 261-308. The low end and high end of the range are added and averaged (284.5). The final projected range is within 5.5 goals of the average, on either side. Projected Goals For: 279-290.

TEAM DEFENSE

The Sharks yielded 292 goals on 2,431 shots last season for an .880 team save percentage. League average save percentage is roughly .900, which would equate to 243 goals on the same number of shots. I assume the Sharks will progress toward the mean, but still fall well short with a save percentage below league average.

Total Goals Against (range): 243-292. The low end and high end of the range are added and averaged (267.5). The final projected range is within 5.5 goals of the average, on either side. Projected Goals Against: 262-273.

LEAGUE + TEAM COMPS

Given Mike Grier’s offseason additions on defense, I think we can safely anticipate that this team will be more adept at keeping the puck out of its own net next season. Allowing between 262 and 273 goals would be a modest but achievable improvement for the Sharks. Even the low end of that range, however, would still have been tenth-worst in the entire NHL last season. For a young, developing team that has given up 607 goals over the past two campaigns, incremental gains feel like the best one can reasonably project.

On the other side of the ledger, this is a roster built to score. San Jose’s projected Goals For range of 279-290 would have landed them in the top ten on the low end last season, and top five on the high end.

By these calculations, the Sharks are projected to finish top ten in goals for next season, and bottom ten in goals against. In other words, this should be a very fun, high-event group to watch, one that often has to outscore its defensive warts but is more than capable of doing so with regularity.

What kind of results should we expect in the standings? If we look at last year’s field, only three teams in the NHL finished top-ten in goals and bottom-ten in goals against: Pittsburgh, Edmonton and Anaheim. Montreal came close enough to add them into the sample group. All four were playoff teams, and won a combined three playoff rounds – although one of those wins (Anaheim, first round) came at the expense of another team in this group (Edmonton).

On average, those four teams earned roughly 97 points. We project next year’s Sharks to earn between 94 and 98 points, for a finish between fifth and seventh in the Western Conference and between second and fourth in the Pacific Division.

Will this rudimentary projection model hold up over multiple years, or was last year’s accuracy simply a matter of luck? Only time can tell us, but the numbers – if they’re to be believed – paint an encouraging picture.

Welcome back to the Macklin Years Podcast! It’s been a very busy week for the Sharks since we last recorded, as Mike Grier completely remade his blue line with some pricey moves on the first day of free agency. Not everyone is impressed. We talk about why — and why we disagree.

But first, we pull our jaws up off the floor and react to Leo Carlsson’s record-setting $18M offer sheet, and try to make a few educated guesses as to how this might impact a Macklin Celebrini extension.

Ty and Joseph give their opinions on newly-added defensemen Darnell Nurse and Jacob Trouba, and where they see them fitting into next year’s roster. They also discuss whether or not Grier has done enough to make the Sharks a legitimate playoff threat.

Next, the pair talk about some of the non-Sharks deals that were signed, before jumping into observations from dev camp and the prospect scrimmage. Who were the standouts? Ty talks about Alexander Karmanov and Jake Gustafson; Joseph was impressed with Ryan Lin and Haoxi Wang. Plus, are the Sharks preparing Eric Pohlkamp for a full-time NHL role?

Finally, we wrap up with a few memories of the great Bryan Marchment (Donald Brashear, anyone?), and talk about why it will mean so much to see his son, Mason, in a Sharks uniform.

Thanks for listening, and Go Sharks!