Performance-wise, the five exits (BABA, PGY, HIMS, TDOC, ROKU) may look like a mixed bag with 3 winners and 2 losers; however, the average return on these 5 picks was +87% (close to the top-end of our stated target return).

From a business standpoint, Teladoc was the biggest disappointment - despite the obvious value play here, growth is simply dead for nearly 2 years now. Alibaba has done ok. Roku has done alright, and the company got acquired by Fox recently (slightly above our fair value estimate, transaction yet to close). Pagaya and Hims & Hers are doing well, and we continue to have them as active asymmetric investment ideas with double-entries for each of them.

Excited to share new ideas with the community in upcoming days! Congrats to all Qvestors who participated in the set we exited today.

If you are interested in learning more about TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas, it is an exclusive monthly publication wherein we highlight stocks with truly asymmetric risk-reward, targeting 50-100%+ return on each pick within 1-3 years. And, since the launch of this series in April 2023, our picks have generated an average return of +125% per idea as of 13th August 2026, exceeding the stated target return goal, with 13 out of 37 picks turning out to be multibaggers already; thereby validating TQI’s proprietary “Quantamental” approach for stock picking. To access TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas Series, subscribe now.

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Welcome to the 38th edition of TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas series - an exclusive monthly publication wherein we highlight stocks with truly asymmetric risk-reward, targeting 50-100%+ return on each pick within 1-3 years. And, since the launch of this series in April 2023, our picks have generated an average return of +133% per idea as of 13th August 2026, exceeding the stated target return goal, with 13 out of 37 picks turning out to be multibaggers already; thereby validating TQI’s proprietary “Quantamental” approach for stock picking.

You can find this investing resource here: TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas List

For May 2026, I have selected a long-term compounder we know quite well as TQI’s Asymmetric Idea -

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Welcome to the 37th edition of TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas series - an exclusive monthly publication wherein we highlight stocks with truly asymmetric risk-reward, targeting 50-100%+ return on each pick within 1-3 years. And, since the launch of this series in April 2023, our picks have generated an average return of +151% per idea as of 30th June 2026, exceeding the stated target return goal, with 13 out of 36 picks turning out to be multibaggers already; thereby validating TQI’s proprietary “Quantamental” approach for stock picking.

You can find this investing resource here: TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas List

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Introduction

Welcome to the 36th edition of TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas series.

Since the launch of TQI Asymmetric Ideas series in April 2023, our picks have generated an average return of +152.7% per idea as of 25th May 2026 - exceeding our stated target return of 50-100%+ - with 9 out of 36 picks turning out to be multibaggers; validating TQI’s proprietary “Quantamental” approach for stock picking.

You can find this investing resource here: TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas List

Now, we have had our fair share of hits and misses over the past three years, but the bar for TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas series is set really, really high.

Identifying truly mispriced investment opportunities is hard; however, doing it on a monthly cadence is a herculean task that has been further compounded by an uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Consequently, the publication timelines for TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas series have slipped up recently as I have taken an intentional step back from writing equity analysis notes (Investing Group and SA Premium) to reassess the unprecedented moment we find ourselves in right now.

That said, I remain committed to our monthly cadence, and over the next week or so, I intend to publish three new ideas (1 each for March, April, and May 2026) - catching us up to the target cadence, and sticking to it going forward. If your capital allocation process has been disturbed due to the delayed publications, I sincerely apologize.

Alright, now let’s get straight into today’s note. For March 2026, I have selected -

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Welcome to the 35th edition of TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas series. In April 2023, we launched the TQI Asymmetric Ideas series with a simple mandate: identify mispriced stocks capable of producing 50-100% returns within 1-3 years. As of 31st March 2026, our track record of ~89.5% average return per pick strongly validates our “Quantamental” approach.

You can find this investing resource here: TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas List

Today, we are doubling down on an emerging fintech giant…

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Subscribe to TQI Tidbits to get our market-beating picks delivered straight to your inbox each month.

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Welcome to the 33rd edition of TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas series. Since its inception in April 2023, the mandate for this series has remained clear: identify high-conviction opportunities with the potential for 50%-100%+ returns within 1-3 years, supported by deep fundamental value (i.e., a significant margin of safety) and/or true moonshot growth potential.

And, as of market close on 27th January 2026, our track record stands at 32 picks with an average return of ~150% per pick!

You can find this investing resource here: TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas List

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There is a quiet fortune hidden in the sound of panic. While the herd frantically sells off their assets at the first sign of a storm, the true architects of wealth are standing still, checkbooks ready, waiting for the dust to settle. “Buying fear” isn’t just a contrarian investment strategy; it is a mastery of human psychology. It relies on the truth that the world rarely ends, but the price of admission drops to rock bottom when everyone is convinced it will. In the high-stakes game of finance, adrenaline blinds the masses, but for the calculated investor, widespread terror is simply the ultimate discount coupon. Today’s stock pick is one such investment opportunity!

Welcome to the 32nd edition of TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas series, wherein we strive to find investments that can produce 50-100%+ returns in 1-3 years with limited risk. Since launching this exclusive monthly series in April 2023, our first 31 asymmetric risk/return ideas have generated an average return of ~127% as of writing on 7th December 2025.

You can find this investing resource here: TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas List

For November 2025, I have selected…

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Welcome to the 31st edition of TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas series, wherein we strive to find investments that can produce 50-100%+ returns in 1-3 years with limited risk. Since launching this exclusive monthly series in April 2023, our first 30 asymmetric risk/return ideas have generated an average return of ~158% as of 3rd November 2025.

You can find this investing resource here: TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas List

Now, amid a red-hot bull market, finding asymmetric investments is getting harder by the day. However, after analyzing several businesses across multiple industries over the past month, I have identified a lucrative balance of growth and value in the SaaS space that appears to be an easy ~2x in 2-3 years.

TQI’s Asymmetric Stock Idea for October 2025 ->

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It feels like just yesterday we started this journey, dedicated to blending the discipline of quantitative analysis with the nuance of fundamental insight. Today, I want to celebrate this milestone and, more importantly, invite you to stop watching from the sidelines and join a community committed to making smarter, more informed investment decisions.

Why “Quantamental” Works?

You’ve followed my work because you know that in today’s complex market, relying on gut feelings, headlines, or a single metric simply isn’t enough.

The “Quantamental” approach is our edge, built on four rigorous pillars:

1. Quantitative Discipline: We start with data. We use proprietary models and systematic screens to identify high-quality, undervalued opportunities that the broader market might miss. This filters out the noise and focuses us on the best universe of stocks.

2. Fundamental Nuance: Once a stock passes the quantitative hurdles, we dive deep into the fundamental analysis. We stress-test the business model, management, competitive landscape, and catalysts. This ensures we only buy great businesses.

3. Valuation Analysis: Long-term risk/reward considerations guide all of our investment decisions. We determine the intrinsic value of the business using multiple valuation methodologies (DCF, multiples comparison, etc.). This step is crucial for establishing a clear margin of safety and setting realistic, data-backed price targets.

4. Technical Analysis: Even the best stock can fall if purchased at the wrong time. Our technical analysis confirms entry and exit points, looking at price action, volume trends, and momentum indicators to optimize the timing of our investments.

This rigorous, four-pillar process has been the bedrock of our success over the last three years. It ensures we’re investing in the Right Company, at the Right Valuation, and at the Right Time.

The incredible performance of TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas Series [+154% average return across 30 picks as of 2nd October 2025] speaks for our individual stock picking prowess:

To get TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas [pick + research note] delivered straight into your email inbox every month, subscribe to TQI Tidbits (Paid).

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However, if you need a more comprehensive solution, consider subscribing to The Quantamental Investor (Full Access) membership on Seeking Alpha [Link].

What You Get Inside The Quantamental Investor (Full Access)

1. TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas Series + Risk Mitigation Strategies

With every monthly edition of TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas Series, we strive to find investments that can produce 50-100%+ returns in 1-3 years with limited risk. Additionally, for investors seeking to mitigate the volatility associated with these asymmetric investments, we offer proactive risk management strats.

2. TQI’s Market-Beating Model Portfolios

At TQI, we share five risk-optimized model portfolio strategies - each serving different stages of the investor lifecycle curve. From “just getting started with investing“ to “managing money in retirement“, TQI has got you covered.

You get full transparency into every position, the conviction level, and the precise entry/exit reasoning, which details the relevant Fundamental, Valuation, and Technical factors.

3. Real-Time Trade Alerts

When we buy or sell, you know immediately. You’ll receive instant notifications via our group chat and email, allowing you to act decisively and efficiently.

4. Deep-Dive Research Reports

Get access to exclusive, in-depth reports that go far beyond my public articles. These documents provide the comprehensive quantamental analysis (all four pillars) behind every investment, arming you with the confidence and knowledge to understand exactly what you own.

5. Direct Access & Community

Have a question about a portfolio holding or a market trend? You get direct access to me for Q&A. More importantly, you join a vibrant, focused community of serious investors who share insights and hold each other accountable. This community is one of the most underrated benefits of membership.

My Promise to You for Year Four

Three years is a solid track record, but the market never stands still, and neither do we.

As we enter our fourth year, our commitment is simple:

• Continuous Improvement: We will continue to refine our analysis process, models, and technical signals to adapt to shifting market environments and uncover new opportunities.

• Total Transparency: Every win, every loss, and every lesson learned will be shared openly with the group.

• Unwavering Discipline: We will stick to TQI’s Quantamental Analysis framework, avoiding emotional decisions and focusing solely on the data and the quality of the underlying business.

The Price of Waiting

You’ve been following my public work for a while, and I truly appreciate your support. But in the investing world, there’s a massive difference between reading about a strategy and executing it.

If you’re tired of:

• Feeling overwhelmed by market noise...

• Buying great companies at the wrong price or the wrong time...

• Missing out on systematically identified, high-quality opportunities...

...then the time to join is now.

To celebrate our three-year anniversary, I’m offering a special One Month Trial for just $5. Don’t let another year go by watching someone else execute the strategy that could be working for you.

Click here to secure your trial offer and join The Quantamental Investor today

I look forward to welcoming you into the group and beginning our next three years of disciplined, data-driven investing together.

Best regards,

Ahan Vashi, Investing Group Leader, The Quantamental Investor

Welcome to the 30th edition of TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas series, wherein we strive to find investments that can produce 50-100%+ returns in 1-3 years with limited risk. Since launching this exclusive monthly series in April 2023, our first 29 asymmetric risk/return ideas have generated ~139% return on average as of writing on 28th September 2025.

You can find this investing resource here: TQI’s Asymmetric Ideas List

For September 2025, I have picked

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Welcome to the 29th edition of TQI's Asymmetric Ideas series, wherein we strive to find investments that can produce 50-100%+ returns in 1-3 years with limited risk. Since launching this exclusive monthly series in April 2023, our first 28 asymmetric risk/return ideas have generated ~119% return on average as of writing on 8th September 2025.

You can find this investing resource here: TQI's Asymmetric Ideas List

For August 2025, I have picked…

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Welcome to the 28th edition of TQI's Asymmetric Ideas series, wherein we strive to find investments that can produce 50-100%+ returns in 1-3 years with limited risk. Since launching this exclusive monthly series in April 2023, our first 27 asymmetric risk/return ideas have generated ~120% return on average as of writing on 17th August 2025.

You can find this investing resource here: TQI's Asymmetric Ideas List

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From foes to friends in a flash, the Roku-Amazon partnership is an earth-shattering move in the connected TV market.

• Amazon Ads and Roku Announce Partnership Creating the Largest Authenticated CTV Footprint

Despite surging 50% from its entry into TQI's Asymmetric Ideas list in October 2023 at $58.80 per share, ROKU remains an asymmetric investment for long-term investors. Read on to learn more…

Introduction

Roku, Inc. (ROKU) has been a part of multiple model portfolio strategies at TQI since our community's inception in 2022, and also happened to make it to our market-obliterating TQI Asymmetric Ideas list in October 2023 at $58.80 per share [up +50% since]. While Roku's stock hasn't set the world alight for us [relative to broad indices and many of our top stock ideas], Roku's business performance has undoubtedly validated our long-term investment thesis and valuation model.

TQI's body of work on ROKU:

• TQI's Asymmetric Ideas - Pick #7: Roku, Inc. (ROKU) [Oct 2023]

• Roku: Outlook For 2024 As Ad Spending Is Expected To Grow [Jan 2024]

• Roku: Secular Growth Stock At A Reasonable Price [Jan 2025]

Riding the coattails of a secular shift from linear TV to connected TV, Roku is delivering healthy double-digit top-line growth, whilst reporting tremendous progress on bottom-line performance with GAAP profitability expected to be achieved in 2026, driven by improved platform monetization.

Given Roku's immense scale [100M+ CTV households (eyeballs), No. 1 TV OS in the United States, Canada, and Mexico -> expanding internationally], I believe it is a natural beneficiary of advertising budgets moving over from traditional linear TV to streaming/connected TV.

That said, despite opening up its walled garden to third-party DSPs like The Trade Desk (TTD) and Google DV360 (GOOGL)(GOOG) in 2024, Roku is still struggling to fill its ballooning ad inventory across the platform, especially within The Roku Channel [TRC viewership up 84% y/y in Q1]:

Source: Roku, Inc. (ROKU) 20th Annual Needham Technology, Media & Consumer Conference Call Transcript [May 2025]

Interestingly, Dan Jedda's prophecy about a potential partnership with Amazon DSP has quickly turned into reality:

NEW YORK, NY — June 16, 2025 — Today, Amazon Ads and Roku, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROKU) announced a new integration that gives advertisers access to the largest authenticated CTV footprint in the U.S. exclusively through Amazon DSP. The new collaboration delivers logged-in reach to an estimated 80M U.S. Connected TV (CTV) households, representing more than 80% of U.S. CTV households according to ComScore data. Unlocking an addressable CTV audience at such unprecedented scale will drive improved performance, planning, optimization, and measurement for all advertisers, further enabling CTV as a true performance solution. The exclusive partnership between two leaders in CTV enhances addressability across major streaming apps including The Roku Channel, Prime Video, and other leading CTV streaming services on Roku and Fire TV operating systems; popular streaming services already available, including Disney, FOX Corporation, Paramount, Tubi, and Warner Bros Discovery; and all premium publishers.

Early tests of this integration have shown significant results. Advertisers using this new solution reached 40% more unique viewers with the same budget and reduced how often the same person saw an ad by nearly 30%, enabling advertisers to benefit from three times more value from their ad spend.

“Our exclusive partnership with Roku is a giant leap for advertisers, bringing best-in-class planning, audience precision, and performance to TV advertising,” said Paul Kotas, Senior Vice President, Amazon Ads. “The collaboration enables agencies and brands that use Amazon DSP to benefit from greater efficiency and higher performance. We’re removing the guesswork to provide advertisers with unprecedented capabilities and delivering performance in ways that simply weren't possible before. By combining our technologies, advertisers can now drive full-funnel campaign outcomes—from awareness through conversion—while eliminating media waste across Amazon and Roku streaming audiences.”

The integration utilizes a custom identity resolution service, allowing Amazon DSP to recognize logged-in viewers across the Roku OS and devices in the U.S. This exclusive capability enables advertisers to reach the same viewer deterministically across different streaming channels and devices, providing more accurate audience targeting and measurement than previously possible.

“For years, Roku has been committed to delivering performance-driven, open, and interoperable solutions that provide visibility and accountability for advertisers. Our partnership with Amazon strengthens this mission, as Amazon DSP exemplifies these principles,” said Charlie Collier, President, Roku Media. “This collaboration delivers a unified, future-ready solution at an unprecedented scale, one designed to drive measurable outcomes by unlocking performance across CTV. With nearly half of all TV streaming time in the U.S. happening on Roku, and the power and depth of Amazon in retail and beyond, together we’re uniquely positioned to prove performance and differentiate DSP offerings for our shared advertisers and marketers.”

As the most addressable platform for Roku’s CTV activation, Amazon DSP now offers advertisers new exclusive advantages:

· Reach with more precision: Authenticated reach across two of the largest CTV footprints, paired with Amazon’s trillions of shopping, streaming, and browsing signals, helps brands more precisely reach their desired audiences and connect ads to consumer actions, such as purchases.

· Measurable results at every stage of the customer journey: Combining data from ads served on the Roku platform with Amazon DSP insights shows exactly how ads drive outcomes across the funnel, providing a level of intelligence across Roku properties not offered by any other DSP.

· Effective control of ad frequency: Amazon DSP can now recognize users across channels and devices to deliver the right number of ads—eliminating wasted impressions while creating a better viewing experience.

Amazon Ads offers full-funnel advertising solutions to help businesses of all sizes achieve their marketing goals at scale. Amazon DSP is a technology solution available to Amazon Ads customers, providing choice and flexibility to drive meaningful moments between brands and consumers. Amazon DSP leverages unique first-party insights paired with sophisticated clean room technology to bring advertisers and publishers closer together, increasing efficiency and improving performance. It leverages advanced AI to deliver impactful ads to relevant audiences through automation that streamlines campaign planning, buying, and measurement.

This partnership complements Roku’s direct sales strategy and reinforces the company’s commitment to working with a diverse range of partners, including DSPs, to maximize reach and performance for our clients.

The new solution will be available in the U.S. to all advertisers that use Amazon DSP by Q4 2025.

Source: Amazon Ads and Roku Announce Partnership Creating the Largest Authenticated CTV Footprint

Roku-Amazon Partnership Is Truly Game-Changing: Foes Turned Friends For A Reason

As two of the leading TV OS giants, Roku and Amazon (via FireTV) have battled fiercely for market share over the past several years. However, with the dominance of the highly lucrative connected TV ad market on offer, Roku has struck an exclusive partnership with Amazon Ads that will entail sharing Roku's first-party data with Amazon DSP to deliver highly performant ads to marketers. The key differentiation from past DSP partnerships here is that closed-loop attribution, "the holy grail of advertising", achieved via this integration, can attract higher-margin "performance marketing" budgets to Roku, at a massive scale.

Now, initial test results for this partnership have already indicated 3x more value for marketers:

Early tests of this integration have shown significant results. Advertisers using this new solution reached 40% more unique viewers with the same budget and reduced how often the same person saw an ad by nearly 30%, enabling advertisers to benefit from three times more value from their ad spend.

By combining Roku's eyeballs and first-party data with its own vast datasets, Amazon can and will deliver a game-changing lift in CTV ad performance, accelerating the movement of ad dollars from linear TV to connected TV. Naturally, Roku's ad inventory will have better fill rates and higher CPM. Hence, Roku's platform monetization efforts are likely to get supercharged starting Q4 2025 as its partnership with Amazon goes live.

Valuation Remains attractive

For today's valuation exercise, I am using Roku's FY2025E revenue of $4.55B as the model base. Now, with the Amazon Ads deal in the bag, Roku's platform monetization efforts are likely to yield far better results in 2026. As such, I now have greater confidence in our above-consensus modeling period sales CAGR growth assumption of 15% [street consensus is ~11-12%].

On the margin front, Roku's devices business will likely continue to be a loss leader for the foreseeable future; however, high-margin platform (advertising and subscription) revenues are growing at a healthy double-digit clip, pushing operating and free cash flow margins higher. Over the long run, I continue to see Roku's FCF margin settling in the 20-30% range at terminal growth rates.

Since Roku is now firmly free cash flow generative and on track to achieve GAAP net income profitability in 2026, I am reducing its required IRR from 20% to 15% for Roku.

All other assumptions were held constant from our previous assessment and are relatively straightforward, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.

Here's our updated valuation model for Roku:

As per TQI's Valuation Model, ROKU is worth ~$201 per share (or ~$29.5B in market cap) [up from our previous estimate of ~$151 per share]. The jump in fair value estimate is primarily a function of increased business scale and reduced required IRR [direct consequence of improved profitability]. With Roku stock trading in the $80s, I deem it significantly undervalued.

Now, predicting where a stock would trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock would track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to become depressed again, higher equity multiples would make sense. However, I work with the assumption that eventually, interest rates will track their long-term historical average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x. And this is my base case assumption for an exit multiple for Roku (5- years out).

Based on an exit multiple of ~20x P/FCF, I can see Roku stock rising from $88 to $311 per share, implying a 5-year expected CAGR of 28.7% for ROKU. Since this expected return is far greater than our investment hurdle rate of ~15%, Roku remains a “Strong Buy” in the $80s under our valuation process.

Technical Momentum Is Building

From a technical standpoint, Roku is still stuck in a Stage-I accumulation base, which started in 2022 after a post-COVID bust that drove a >90% drop in ROKU stock:

However, Roku is set to achieve GAAP profitability in 2026, and this feat could easily catalyze an upsurge in ROKU stock, potentially culminating in a rapid move to TQI's fair value estimate of approximately $200 per share. As of now, Roku is trading above all but one key weekly moving average level [200-MA at ~$93]. With momentum indicators [weekly RSI and MACD] trending up, I view Roku's technical setup favorably.

Concluding Thoughts

Considering Roku's improving business fundamentals, lucrative valuation, and constructive technical setup, I remain bullish on Roku stock going into the second half of the year and into 2026. In my mind, as long as the economy avoids a severe recession, Roku is an easy 2-4x within the next 12-36 months.

Key Takeaway: I continue to rate Roku a "Strong Buy" in the $80s.

Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please let me know if you have any thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.

Welcome to the 27th edition of TQI's Asymmetric Ideas series, wherein we strive to find investments that can produce 50-100%+ returns in 1-3 years with limited risk. Since launching this exclusive monthly series in April 2023, our first 26 asymmetric risk/return ideas have generated +112.28% return on average as of writing on 21st June 2025 -> handsomely outperforming top investment benchmarks such as QQQ [+19.6%] and Magnificent 7 [+32.6%]!

TQI Tidbits Paid Members can find this investing resource here: TQI's Asymmetric Ideas List

For June 2025, I have selected semiconductor…

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Welcome to the 26th edition of TQI's Asymmetric Ideas series, wherein we strive to find investments that can produce 50-100%+ returns in 1-3 years with limited risk. Since launching this exclusive monthly series in April 2023, our first 25 asymmetric risk/return ideas have generated +101.79% return on average as of writing on 12th June 2025 -> handsomely outperforming top investment benchmarks such as QQQ [+21.9%] and Magnificent 7 [+35.5%]!

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Since initiating coverage on Hims & Hers, Inc. (HIMS) in May 2022 with a "Strong Buy" rating at ~$3.5 per share, I have published an additional 6 "Strong Buy" recommendations in recent years:

With Hims & Hers stock currently trading at ~$52 per share, HIMS has undoubtedly been one of my biggest winners! Today, we shall analyze Hims & Hers' Q1 2025 report, business outlook, valuation, technicals, and more.

How Did Hims & Hers Fare In Q1 2025?

With the Hims & Hers flywheel humming along in fine fashion, the emerging healthcare tech company delivered stunning numbers for Q1 2025:

• Revenue: $586M [+111% y/y, vs. est. $539M]

• Subscribers: 2.4M [+38% y/y]

• Monthly Online Revenue Per Avg. Subscriber: $84 [+53% y/y]

On a segment level, Online Revenue rose +115% y/y to $576M, driven by strong subscriber uptake of its compounded semaglutide GLP-1 offerings [$230M, majority of which came from personalized doses] and healthy +30% y/y growth in non-GLP-1 sales, which came in at $346M.

In the 10-Q filing, Hims & Hers' leadership highlighted their Super Bowl Ad campaign as a major driver of increased traffic on the platform across web and mobile apps.

And, as per data from Bloomberg Second Measure LLC, Hims & Hers continues to garner a lion's share of total customers and sales across categories [Sexual Health, Dermatology, Mental Health, and Weight Loss] against its peer set:

Now, given robust unit economics, Hims & Hers' top-line scale up is resulting in operating leverage, with adj. EBITDA margins rising to +16% in Q1 2025 [up from 12% in Q1 2024] driven by strong Marketing and G&A leverage.

While aggressive reinvestments across the business limited Hims & Hers' free cash flow generation in Q1 2025 to ~$50M, quarterly operating cash flow reached new highs of $109M.

Overall, Hims & Hers' Q1 2025 report was mighty impressive. However, with commercial compounding of GLP-1s no longer possible, Hims & Hers' weight loss business is set to experience a painful transition in upcoming quarters.

What's Ahead?

Looking forward, Hims & Hers' management has guided for a first-ever sequential decline in revenues in Q2 2025, with revenue projected to come in at $530-550M [-6.5% to -9.5% q/q] - primarily due to product transition in its sexual health and weight loss business:

First, we expect continued strong growth across many of our most tenured offerings, including mental health as well as men's and women's dermatology, all of which are benefiting from years of investment in brand retention and personalized offerings. That said, while sequential and year-over-year growth is expected to continue, we do expect uneven trends in sexual health as we navigate transitions in the treatment mix, which we believe is temporary as new daily personalized solutions gain traction. We're already starting to see encouraging signs of momentum that we believe will strengthen with the addition of new offerings over the course of the year.

Second, we expect to complete the transition of subscribers previously on commercially available doses of semiglutide to either appropriate alternatives on our platform or other platforms entirely by the end of the second quarter. This transition is expected to result in a one-time quarter-over-quarter revenue drop in the second quarter, from which we are confident we can continue to build upon through the remainder of the year.

- Yemi Okupe, Hims & Hers' CFO on Q1 2025 Earnings Call (Transcript)

Now, while Hims & Hers' is clearly set to hit some turbulent waters this quarter, the business retrenchment is expected to be a temporary blip, with management re-affirming their full year revenue outlook of $2.3-2.4B for 2025, and lifting the adj. EBITDA guidance to $295-335M.

Interestingly, Hims & Hers' guide for Weight Loss revenue for 2025 is unchanged at $725M+. This means Hims & Hers' management believes that, in a relatively short period of time, the loss of commercial compounded semaglutide GLP-1 revenues will be offset by continued growth in its existing weight loss solutions [Personalized Semaglutide, Liraglutide (generic GLP-1 -> launched in March 2025), and Oral Weight Loss drugs] and new revenue stream created by the recent addition of Novo-Nordisk's Wegovy (branded GLP-1) on Hims & Hers' platform.

Now, in its relatively short operating history, Hims & Hers has demonstrated a consistent track record of execution - driven by the strength of its business model and operational excellence - delivering hypergrowth over the past several years.

Despite the heightened likelihood of near-term growth wobbles, Hims & Hers' is still just scratching the surface, given its humongous TAM opportunity. As of Q1 2025, Hims & Hers was serving 2.4M subscribers; however, multiple existing specialties addressed by Hims & Hers represent 80-100M+ potential consumers in the US alone.

Furthermore, new specialities and geographic expansion equate to huge room for long-term growth.

Now, back in 2022, Hims & Hers' leadership set out lofty revenue and adj. EBITDA goals of $1.2B+ and $100M+ for 2025. However, based on current guidance, Hims & Hers is set to deliver ~2x revenue and ~3x adj. EBITDA!!!

After obliterating their past medium-term guidance, Hims & Hers' management have now set another impressive long-term goal - calling for $6.5B+ revenue and $1.3B+ adj. EBITDA in FY2030:

The long-term vision for Hims & Hers is to be synonymous with high-quality personalized care. By integrating diagnostics and leveraging artificial intelligence, Hims & Hers is aiming to elevate the subscriber experience on its platform, much like what Netflix (NFLX) has done over the past decade or so.

And, to accelerate global expansion and utilization of AI in healthcare, Hims & Hers has added two key C-suite executives to its leadership team and raised $870M at 0% interest via a convertible senior notes deal in the past week.

On 5th May 2025, Hims & Hers announced the appointment of 20-year Amazon veteran and global operations expert, Nader Kabbani, as its new Chief Operating Officer. And this high-profile pre-ER C-suite addition was followed up by the announcement of a new Chief Technology Officer, Mo Elshenawy, on 8th May 2025.

While GM's Cruise robotaxi shut down after a major incident amid piling operating losses, Elshenawy is a proven technology executive with deep expertise in artificial intelligence and large-scale infrastructure having led global engineering for Amazon's ReCommerce business and creation of retail data analytics platforms that powered over hundreds of millions in revenue in the past.

Thus far, Andrew Dudum has proven himself to be a true visionary founder and an excellent operator. And, given his track record, I trust his recruits and fully back his long-term vision for Hims & Hers.

In my mind, Hims & Hers remains a profitable growth story that has several years to run, with the platform on track to grow from 2.4M subscribers to 10-15M+ subscribers in coming years and lots of cross-selling potential across a loyal base!

With all of this information in mind, let us now re-evaluate HIMS' long-term risk/reward.

HIMS Fair Value And Expected Return

For today's valuation exercise, I am updating our model's revenue base to $2.5B [FY2025E] given greater confidence in Hims & Hers' full-year guide based on healthy non-GLP-1 sales growth in Q1 2025, addition of Novo's Wegovy (branded GLP-1) & Liraglutide (generic GLP-1) to a broadening weight loss offering, and expansion into new specialities [low testerone and menopause] in the back half of the year.

Now, Hims & Hers' 2030 revenue target floor of $6.5B implies ~22% CAGR sales growth over the 2026-2030 period. Given its execution history, Hims & Hers will likely outperform this long-term expectation. However, in order to be conservative with our model, I am baking in ~20% CAGR sales growth for the next five years.

On margins, Hims & Hers' long-term guidance is calling for adj. EBITDA margins of atleast 20% by 2030. However, with long-term gross margins likely to settle at 75-80%, I think Hims & Hers could do even better on the profit margin front when the business reaches steady-state terminal growth. Hence, I am sticking with our optimized FCF margin assumption of 35%.

Also, Hims & Hers' share buyback program has ~$65M remaining, but given its global ambitions and rapidly climbing share price, I believe management will recalibrate the capital allocation towards long-term growth. As such, I have taken the "Buyback as a %age of FCF" assumption down from 25% to 0%.

All other assumptions are straightforward, but if you have any questions, thoughts, and/or concerns, please share them in the comments below.

Here's my updated valuation model for Hims & Hers:

According to these results, Hims & Hers is worth $112.30 per share [up from $67.50 at the previous assessment].

Note: Kindly understand that this is a forward-looking model based on FY2025E numbers, i.e., the updated fair value estimate for Hims & Hers is an estimate for its intrinsic value at the end of 2025 [7-month forward].

Now, predicting where a stock will trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock will track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to return to artificially low levels (i.e., ZIRP), higher equity multiples would be justifiable. However, I work with the assumption that interest rates will eventually track the long-term average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x (P/FCF).

Assuming a conservative exit multiple of ~20x P/FCF, I can see Hims & Hers' stock trading at ~$176.3 per share in 2030:

With Hims & Hers' expected 5-year CAGR return handily exceeding our investment hurdle rate of 15%, HIMS stock remains a "Strong Buy" under our valuation process at current levels.

Concluding Thoughts

After several years of hypergrowth, Hims & Hers is set to experience its first-ever quarter of sequential revenue decline in Q2 2025 due to product transition within sexual health and end of commercial compounding of semaglutide GLP-1. However, this is just an ephemeral blip, with the healthcare tech platform company set for profitable growth through the rest of this decade and beyond - powered by greater TAM penetration within existing specialties, new specialties, global expansion, and integration of AI.

Back in February 2025, I wrote the following -

Technically, Hims & Hers' stock has now pulled back to its 10-week MA support at ~$37 per share, with weekly RSI moving out of "overbought" territory. While the ongoing drawdown may deepen to the 20-week MA [low-$30s] or 40-week MA [mid-$20s] support levels if broad market weakness persists in the near term, I think a combination of smoother-than-expected transition within Hims & Hers' GLP-1 business and reinvigoration of growth across Hims & Hers' non-GLP-1 business can stoke another powerful leg higher in HIMS stock over the next 12–24 months.

Source: Hims & Hers: Down 45% In 5 Days, Is The Stock Still A Buy?

Three months on, Hims & Hers has rebounded strongly off of the 40-week MA support in the mid-$20s, and is now trading into the $50s on the back of a 20%+ post-ER jump:

Volatility is inherent to early-stage growth stocks, and Hims & Hers is no different. With weekly RSI getting close to "Overbought" levels once again, HIMS stock may suffer a correction in the near-term, especially if the US economy were to slide into a recession. That said, Hims & Hers' long-term risk/reward remains favorable, and technical momentum is bullish. With >30% of HIMS float sold short right now, a massive squeeze into the triple digits cannot be ruled out.

Considering Hims & Hers' business fundamentals, humongous TAM (growth potential), stock undervaluation, and positive technicals, I continue to view HIMS stock as a "Strong Buy" right now.

Key Takeaway: I rate Hims & Hers stock a "Strong Buy" at ~$52 per share.

Thank you for reading, and happy investing! Please share any questions, thoughts, and/or concerns in the comments section below.

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After initiating coverage on AT&T (T) with a "Buy" rating in September 2021, I reiterated my bullish stance on the telecom giant in December 2023:

With its earnings (~14.7%) and dividend (~6.7%) yield being greater than short-term (2-yr: 4.33%) and long-term (10-yr: 3.89%) treasury yields, AT&T is undoubtedly an enticing dividend investment. As we saw in this note, AT&T's above-industry average dividend yield of 6.7% is well covered by its free cash flows. Given management's commitment to the dividend and robust cash generation potential of AT&T's connectivity services business, another dividend cut (or pause) seems very unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Despite AT&T's highly leveraged balance sheet, I view AT&T as a good hideout for investors looking to safeguard themselves from violent market gyrations in the next 1-2 years. AT&T is a (utility-like) reliable cash flow generator that will continue to produce tons of free cash flow even during recessionary periods. From a valuation perspective, AT&T is currently undervalued, and the risk/reward is attractive enough to warrant a new long position. In my view, T's 6.7% dividend yield is safe, and there's a very good chance of significant capital appreciation in AT&T's stock in 2024-25. Henceforth, I continue to rate AT&T a "Buy" for dividend investors.

Key Takeaway: I rate AT&T a long-term "Buy" at $16.5 per share

Source: AT&T: A Juicy 6.7% Dividend Yield Plus A Likely Upward Re-Rating

Since then, AT&T's stock has absolutely annihilated the market [S&P-500 (SPY)] on a total return basis, driven by a powerful mix of dividends and capital appreciation [powered by an upward re-rating in trading multiples].

Now, while AT&T's recent financial performance has trended in the right direction and the telecom giant's deleveraging is progressing quite nicely, the sharp decline in AT&T's dividend yield from ~7% to ~4% [under risk-free treasury yields: 4-4.5%] begs the question - "Is AT&T Still A Good Buy?"

To answer this question, we shall analyze AT&T's business trends and re-run the stock through TQI's Valuation Model in today's report. Let's go!

AT&T: By The Numbers

Since returning to its core roots of connectivity services by exiting the media business (through partial sales of DirecTV (late-2021) and WarnerMedia (mid-2022)), AT&T's top-line growth rates have been fluctuating around the flat line, but have largely stayed in positive territory:

And, while free cash flow generation has been somewhat wobbly, AT&T's deleveraging has been progressing quite well, with the Net Debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improving to ~2.63x as of the end of Q1 2025, and on track to hit management's operating target of ~2.5x in the first half of 2025:

Now, in its latest quarter, AT&T showcased continued strength in 5G and Fiber offerings with robust customer additions (Postpaid Net Adds: +324K, Fiber Net Adds: +261K) and healthy ARPU expansion.

However, with AT&T's business wireline segment ($4.5B, -9% y/y) still weighing on top-line performance, overall sales totaled $30.6B, representing a year-over-year increase of only ~2%.

On a more positive note, AT&T's margins are trending in the right direction, with adj. EBTIDA and free cash flow outpacing revenue growth, rising +4.4% y/y and +13.5% y/y in Q1 2025.

Now, while tariffs have led to many guidance pulls during this earnings season, AT&T's management reaffirmed its outlook for 2025 -> projecting low single-digit top-line and adj. EBITDA growth.

Furthermore, AT&T's capital return program is set to be bolstered by a $10B buyback program [guided stock repurchases - $3B in 2025, $7B in 2026].

In my view, AT&T and Verizon (VZ) are utility-like companies that would serve as reliable cash flow machines for shareholders through recessionary periods. That said, valuation matters when making investment decisions.

AT&T Fair Value And Expected Returns

Considering its enterprise value of ~$315B and projected 2025 FCF of $16B+, AT&T is trading at an EV/FCF multiple of ~20x, which is roughly in line with broader market multiples [S&P-500 trading at ~21-22x forward earnings].

Further, as we know, AT&T is a mature low-growth business, which is comparable to a long-term bond. Given its earnings yield of 5.48%, AT&T currently offers a +1% equity risk premium over the 10-year US Treasury bond that's yielding 4.4%. From a return perspective, it still makes sense to own AT&T over risk-free treasury bonds.

From an absolute valuation standpoint, AT&T now appears fully valued based on conservative assumptions for future growth and margins:

As you can see above, AT&T is worth ~$26.6 per share (or ~$192B in market cap), i.e., the stock is marginally overvalued at current levels.

Please note, I haven't factored in AT&T's [net] debt load of ~$120B because I expect the company to carry a big chunk of this debt for many, many more years (potentially decades) to come (any deleveraging will be done using future free cash flows at management's discretion).

Furthermore, we have factored AT&T's dividend into our calculation using it under "Buyback as a % of FCF" and effectively treating it as a drip reinvestment. Also, AT&T's upcoming buyback program is baked in here too.

The model assumptions are pretty straightforward, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.

Assuming a conservative exit multiple of 10x P/FCF for 2030, we get a $39.2 price target for AT&T. This price target implies an expected CAGR return of ~7.61% over the next five years, which is roughly in line with S&P500's long-term annual return of 8-10% but well short of TQI's investment hurdle rate of 15% per year. Therefore, I am downgrading AT&T stock to a "Hold" rating.

Concluding Thoughts

As a recession hideout, AT&T is still a decent stock to own. However, fresh capital allocation in AT&T is unjustified given the significant price appreciation experienced over the past eighteen months.

Key Takeaway: I now rate AT&T a "Hold" at $27.2 per share

Thanks for reading, and happy investing. Please share your thoughts, concerns, and/or questions in the comments section below.

Despite reporting robust business performance in recent quarters, Micron Technology (MU) finds itself stuck in a deep drawdown, with the memory giant's stock sitting ~45% off its July 2024 peak:

In today's report, we shall review Micron's business performance, re-evaluate MU's long-term risk/reward, and analyze its technical chart to formulate an informed investment decision. Let's go!

Micron: By The Numbers

The semiconductor industry is cyclical, and as one of the leading memory [DRAM and NAND] manufacturers in the world, Micron showcases the ebbs and flows of this space:

While memory markets are highly commoditized and prone to cyclical downturns, Micron is currently seeing tremendous demand for its HBM (high bandwidth memory) products with AI infrastructure buildout in full swing.

So much so, Micron recently unveiled a price hike:

And this hike has come on the back of a solid Q2-FY2025 earnings print and stronger-than-expected Q3-FY2025 sales guidance:

Now, Micron bears have been citing "margin contraction" as a potential indication of another impending cyclical downturn, but given Micron's post-Q2 price hikes (coming in response to un-forecasted AI demand), I think any near-term margin deterioration fears are way overblown.

Yes, there will be another cyclical downturn at some point in the future, and Micron will likely suffer a painful contraction then. However, for now, Micron's management and Wall Street analysts are projecting double-digit growth through 2026:

Micron Fair Value And Expected Return

Using conservative assumptions for future growth and margins, TQI's fair value estimate for Micron Technology stands at $90.17 per share, i.e., MU stock looks fairly valued at current levels.

Now, predicting where a stock will trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock will track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to return to artificially low levels (i.e., ZIRP), higher equity multiples would be justifiable. However, I work with the assumption that interest rates will eventually track the long-term average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x (P/FCF).

Assuming an exit multiple of ~20x P/FCF, I can see Micron stock trading at ~$192 per share five years from now. This price target implies a 5-year CAGR return of +17.26%.

With Micron's 5-year expected CAGR return exceeding TQI's investment hurdle rate of 15%, I now rate MU stock a "Buy".

Concluding Thoughts

From a technical perspective, Micron is a broken stock trading under most key moving averages, with the 200-week MA support at ~$80 now firmly in sight.

That said, with RSI trending higher and forming a divergence with price, I think we are in a bottoming process. While MU stock may slip to mid-double-digits in the event of a recessionary bust, I like the idea of allocating fresh capital in MU stock via DCA accumulation for the long haul. Yes, semiconductor memory is cyclical, but with the explosive growth of data/AI/ML in all facets of life, I strongly believe that more memory chips will be required in the future than what's required today. Micron is a clear leader in this space, and its stock is priced attractively enough to restart a long position.

Key Takeaway: I rate Micron a "Buy" in the $80s, with strong preference for accumulation via a 6-12 month DCA plan.

Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.