S&P Insights

ES Market Review

TraderDan — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 22:01:37 GMT

Bullish reversal on the day with 7621.50 being that line in the sand. At 6:30-ish this morning CST when I published the daily plan, bears were in full control and shorts were the only thing on the table without a narrative shift.

Narrative shifted between 7-8am CST. Price swept & stalled out just below pDL created new 1hr bullish imbalance and inverted a 1hr bearish imbalance.

Did the bulls find the bottom? Price reversed back up near our key structure level 7694/7700. Reclaim that zone and we’ll have our answer.

-Dan

Daily Plan | S&P Futures (ES) - 9/2/26

TraderDan — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:58:57 GMT

Bearish shooter candle from Friday still delivering lower prices as the overnight presses towards pDL in a 26 point overnight range.

Lets dive into the details and see what levels are crucial to examine for today’s trading.

Higher Timeframe Context (Daily) Chart):

VIX rising, now at 17.33, while the ATR on a 10m is now at 4.30 at the time of this writing.

Lets look at this morning’s setup & plan:

Bias/Trend/Levels:

🟢Primary Trend : 1200 point move from 2026 April lows 2 green months in a row

🔴🟡Secondary Trend : June consolidation, pullback

🔴Intra-Day Trend (3-5 days): Third day of decline since Friday’s reversal

ES Market Review

TraderDan — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 22:01:48 GMT

Another day another overnight move.

Bearish shooter candle from Friday continues to deliver lower prices. Overnight price took out all of the downside targets before the bell even rang on its 50 point drop. NY session pushed another 30 points lower closing through the prior week low. If this can’t be reclaimed by the bulls there’s not a whole lot below for a while to hold up price.

Bears are the dominant force as we continue to chew through prior bullish imbalances and create more bearish.

-Dan

Daily Plan | S&P Futures (ES) - 9/1/26

TraderDan — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:38:55 GMT

September kicks off today and the overnight is already pushing to the downside taking out pDL, and pWL. Friday’s abrupt bearish shooter reversal is continuing to deliver to the downside. Another day, another overnight move.

Lets dive into the details and see what levels are crucial to examine for today’s trading.

Higher Timeframe Context (Daily) Chart):

VIX rising, now at 16.83, while the ATR on a 10m is now at 5.03 at the time of this writing.

Lets look at this morning’s setup & plan:

Bias/Trend/Levels:

🟢Primary Trend : 1200 point move from 2026 April lows 2 green months in a row

🔴🟡Secondary Trend : June consolidation, pullback

🔴Intra-Day Trend (3-5 days): Third day (in development) of decline since Friday’s reversal

ES Market Review 8/31/26

TraderDan — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 22:02:20 GMT

Bearish shooter candle on Friday led to Sunday night futures session continuation off that bearish formation pushing prices right back down to that key structure of 7700/7693. No further clarity on that level today as the NY session sat in chop for the bulk of the day after that overnight run.

August comes to a close at the bell tonight with a slight bullish expansion month with heavy rejection of prices after tagging a new ATH.

ISM manufacturing numbers up for tomorrow morning to kick off September.

-Dan

Daily Plan | S&P Futures (ES) - 8/31/26

TraderDan — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:46:51 GMT

Final day of August, NVDA earnings broke price out of the previous consolidation on Wednesday and the question from that move was whether that was the real deal break out or not. Friday and the Sunday open erased that bullish endeavor and pushed price right back down to 7700/7693 key structure.

Lets dive into the details and see what levels are crucial to examine for today’s trading.

Higher Timeframe Context (Daily) Chart):

VIX dropping, now at 14.50, while the ATR on a 10m is now at 2.89 at the time of this writing.

Lets look at this morning’s setup & plan:

Bias/Trend/Levels:

🟢Primary Trend : 1200 point move from 2026 April lows 2 green months in a row

🔴🟡🟢Secondary Trend : June consolidation, pullback and rally

🟡Intra-Day Trend (3-5 days): Earnings push up, Friday reversal (bearish shooter)

Weekly S&P Futures Outlook 8/30/26

TraderDan — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 03:10:46 GMT

From last week’s Weekly Outlook:

“Bears took control of the market early last week pushing prices into broader bullish flow and a structure level. This week we want to understand how price responds at that structure level. Reclaim it? Or fail it? If price fails to reclaim there’s not much holding price up from a deep bearish plunge.

Bias heading into the week is leaning bearish, however that can change if price reclaims and holds 7700. ”

7700/7693 zone was the sticking point last week as price consolidated just below that mark. NVDA earnings mid week popped prices above and out of consolidation and held for the remainder of the week. Friday introduced some very bearish activity as a failed excursion to rally, reversed and dumped price forming a bearish shooter on the day to round out the week.

This brings me to the Sunday night futures open. Immediate drop and continuation of Friday’s reversal. Price is now once again visiting last weeks balance just below 7700/7693 at the time of this writing.

Lets dive in to the details and see what levels and or zones are crucial to assess in this upcoming week.

For New Readers: This newsletter is aimed at capturing day to day value shifts on the S&P futures market. This is done through a process I’ve developed over the past several years by uncovering high probability price levels & scenarios for the next trading session. That’s the scope. The process and training is detailed in the link below. If you’re new here, please read this first:

Pricing catalysts to be on the lookout for the week:

Middle East war developments
High Impact News
Earnings set for the week

Top Down, Multi-Timeframe Analysis:

We’ll start with the daily chart, showing the prior week’s consolidation, earnings pop to the upside, Friday’s bearish shooter candle and tonight’s continuation down.

Down to the 1hr volume profile we get a bit more granular. You can see the immediate drop off the Sunday night open right to the pwPOC thus far.

Weekly Levels of Interest (reference the 1hr volume profile chart as a visual):

ES Market Review 8/28/26

TraderDan — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 22:01:24 GMT

Bearish shooter candle to round out a slightly bullish indecisive week w/in a bullish expansion month.

Wild whipsaw day as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke today at 9am CST. Bullish surge in the early am session that failed to hold. Price then flushed back down through the initial balance and closed below the open.

Awfully bearish close to the week. 7700/7693 come back into focus before we close out the month on Monday. Have a great weekend!

-Dan

Daily Plan | S&P Futures (ES) - 8/28/26

TraderDan — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:24:34 GMT

NVDA earnings broke price out of the prior four day consolidation and pushed prices up. Is this the real deal move up or a potential failed move? Price didn’t offer clarity on that question yesterday.

Likely a bullish week taking pWL’s closing out today (failing continuation off last week’s bar) and a bullish month closing out Monday.

Lets dive into the details and see what levels are crucial to examine for today’s trading.

Higher Timeframe Context (Daily) Chart):

VIX dropping, now at 14.50, while the ATR on a 10m is now at 2.89 at the time of this writing.

Lets look at this morning’s setup & plan:

Bias/Trend/Levels:

🟢Primary Trend : 1200 point move from 2026 April lows 2 green months in a row

🔴🟡🟢Secondary Trend : June consolidation, pullback and rally

🟡🟢Intra-Day Trend (3-5 days): Consolidation to overnight breakout

ES Market Review 8/26/27

TraderDan — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 22:00:46 GMT

Very little change to the daily candle today from the premarket to the close today as price maintained its foothold above 7700

NVDA earnings pushed prices up overnight, then went into consolidation while the NY session essentially broadened out that overnight range by a few points on each side. Choppy indecision out of the gate followed by a later session release and finally selling to close out the PM session.

Red folder news tomorrow kicking off with Fed Chairman Warsh speaking at 9CST.

- Dan

Daily Plan | S&P Futures (ES) - 8/27/26

TraderDan — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 11:34:58 GMT

NVDA earnings after hours broke price out of the prior four day consolidation and pushed prices up. Is this the real deal move up or a potential failed move?

Lets dive into the details and see what levels are crucial to examine for today’s trading.

Higher Timeframe Context (Daily) Chart):

VIX steady over last week, now at 17.10, while the ATR on a 10m is now at 4.41 at the time of this writing.

Lets look at this morning’s setup & plan:

Bias/Trend/Levels:

🟢Primary Trend : 1200 point move from 2026 April lows 2 green months in a row

🔴🟡🟢Secondary Trend : June consolidation, pullback and rally

🟡🟢Intra-Day Trend (3-5 days): Consolidation to overnight breakout

ES Market Review 8/26/26

TraderDan — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 22:01:41 GMT

Slightly bullish inside day keeping the consolidation in tact just before the NVDA earnings after the bell.

Not much to really assess until we see the market reaction post NVDA earnings.

See you in the morning.

Premarket trade below off the PCE news release. Price crept up just before the release swept overnight high, showed exhaustion, sellers poured in and price confirmed. Pushed all the way down to London low. The only clean setup I saw in today’s inside day

-Dan

Daily Plan | S&P Futures (ES) - 8/26/26

TraderDan — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:17:14 GMT

New day, same analysis. Bullish run into all time highs, bearish retrace last week stalled out into consolidation just below a key structure level. Do we see a bullish reclaim of that structure or failure for further bearish retrace?

PCE inflationary report out today at 7:30am CST

Lets dive into the details and see what levels are crucial to examine for today’s trading.

Higher Timeframe Context (Daily) Chart):

VIX steady over last week, now at 17.25, while the ATR on a 10m is now at 3.72 at the time of this writing.

Lets look at this morning’s setup & plan:

Bias/Trend/Levels:

🟢Primary Trend : 1200 point move from 2026 April lows 2 green months in a row

🔴🟡🟢Secondary Trend : June consolidation, pullback and rally

🔴🟡Intra-Day Trend (3-5 days): Bearish rotation, now into consolidation

ES Market Review 8/25/26

TraderDan — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 22:01:08 GMT

Home on the range. Broader bearish flow is hung up at a key structure level 7700/7694 where price has gone into consolidation, that carried on today.

One decent setup early today on the S&P. Price failed 7700 and delivered to London low. Other than that, a pretty chop filled day.

PCE price index set for tomorrow morning.

-Dan

Daily Plan | S&P Futures (ES) - 8/25/26

TraderDan — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:13:21 GMT

Similar situation as yesterday, price essentially oscillating back and forth between 7700 and pWL. Bearish flow is the dominant force broadly speaking pressing prices right into a bullish imbalance. Do we see a resolution to this consolidation today? Reclaim of 7700 or breakdown below pWL?

Lets dive into the details and see what levels are crucial to examine for today’s trading.

Higher Timeframe Context (Daily) Chart):

VIX steady over last week, now at 17.5, while the ATR on a 10m is now at 4.20 at the time of this writing.

Lets look at this morning’s setup & plan:

Bias/Trend/Levels:

🟢Primary Trend : 1200 point move from 2026 April lows 2 green months in a row

🔴🟡🟢Secondary Trend : June consolidation, pullback and rally

🔴🟡Intra-Day Trend (3-5 days): Bearish rotation, now into consolidation

ES Market Review 8/24/26

TraderDan — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 22:01:45 GMT

Bearish flow dominating the broader market headed into the day. Looking to see how price responded at pWL and or 7700.

Price chopped all day, didn’t get a good look at either, the same questions from today will apply during the overnight and or tomorrow. On to Tuesday, no high impact news scheduled.

Dan

Daily Plan | S&P Futures (ES) - 8/24/26

TraderDan — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:03:12 GMT

The bears flipped the market last week and took over control from the bulls pushing price right into a key structure level. The question headed into the day is if price will fail that key level or reclaim it? Overnight pricing wicking through that structure and pressing down towards prior day/prior week lows before the bell.

Lets dive into the details and see what levels are crucial to examine for today’s trading.

Higher Timeframe Context (Daily) Chart):

VIX steady over last week, now at 17.45, while the ATR on a 10m is now at 4.04 at the time of this writing.

Lets look at this morning’s setup & plan:

Bias/Trend/Levels:

🟢Primary Trend : 1200 point move from 2026 April lows 2 green months in a row

🔴🟡🟢Secondary Trend : June consolidation, pullback and rally

🔴Intra-Day Trend (3-5 days): Bearish rotation after last week’s new ATH and retrace

Weekly S&P Futures Outlook 8/24/26

TraderDan — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 21:07:04 GMT

From last week’s Weekly Outlook:

“Bulls are in still in control of this market up and through the previous ATH, with some notable weakness to close out the prior week. And that will remain the case until a substantive move back down comes into play. Will remain cautiously bullish until that narrative changes. If we lose 7773 that bullish narrative may shift bearish.”

Narrative changed Tuesday Morning, arguable close of Monday. A week ago Friday the market introduced some short term bearish flow in a bullish market. Bulls were still in control. Monday’s trading held the short term bearish flow and created more, Tuesday flushed a couple key levels and price remained hovering around 7700/7693 for the last half of the week.

Heading into this week bearish flow is the immediate dominant force pushing prices lower. Where? Right into a longer term bullish imbalance and a key structural level.

Pricing catalysts to be on the lookout for the week:

Middle East war developments
High Impact News
Earnings set for the week

Top Down, Multi-Timeframe Analysis:

We’ll start with the daily chart, showing the short term bearish flows holding at the weekly highs and pushing prices lower. Price failed 7800 and retraced down below 7700 and the structure level (prior ATH). Week over week POC shifted lower and settled right at a key structure level.

Down to the 1hr volume profile we get a bit more granular. You can see the week over week value shift lower pressing prices right into the broader bullish imbalances (D and W gap’s). Price closed out last week hovering right around the 7700/7693 structure level.

Weekly Levels of Interest (reference the 1hr volume profile chart as a visual):

ES Market Review 8/21/26

TraderDan — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 22:01:28 GMT

Bullish inside day to round out a bearish week of retrace.

The question around 7700/7693 has not been fully answered. Do we flush and fail it for a further retrace? Or do we see a reclaim of 7700 for a rally back to the highs? Price flushed it on Thursday’s close, no real response before the week closed.

We’ll have to wait until next week to get some further clarity, as well as navigate some more red folder news events. Have a great weekend!

-Dan

Daily Plan | S&P Futures (ES) - 8/20/26

TraderDan — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:31:40 GMT

The bearish retrace continues on yesterday as we break below a key psyche/structure level of 7700/7693. Overnight is a slight bullish bounce sitting near 7693 and pDL. How deep does this bearish leg drive prices? Weekly candle is fully bearish, do we see a Friday bullish retrace or a strong bearish finish?

Lets dive into the details and see what levels are crucial to examine for today’s trading.

Higher Timeframe Context (Daily) Chart):

VIX steady over last week, now at 15.65, while the ATR on a 10m is now at 3.39 at the time of this writing.

Lets look at this morning’s setup & plan:

Bias/Trend/Levels:

🟢Primary Trend : 1200 point move from 2026 April lows 2 green months in a row

🔴🟡🟢Secondary Trend : June consolidation, pullback and rally

🔴Intra-Day Trend (3-5 days): Bearish rotation after last week’s new ATH and retrace