16. Iowa State: 2-10 (0-9)

• I’m gonna be honest with you guys, this might be the worst team in the entire Power 4 this year. Zero returning starters, 50+ transfers out of the program and a first year Head Coach. I don’t envy the uphill battle Coach Jimmy Rogers has in front of him,

  • So, now that we’ve addressed the very large elephant in the room, we can talk about what this new look 2026 Cyclone team will look like. The real kick in the nuts here is losing Matt Campbell, the winningest coach in program history, and then nearly 60 of his disciples following him on his great pilgrimage to Happy Valley. Jimmy Rogers hails from Washington State, and was hired swiftly upon the news of Campbell leaving. He brought in Lions TE coach Tyler Roehl to run the offense, and retained his Wazzou DC Jesse Bobbit for some much needed familiarity. Bobbit basically copy-pasted his 2025 Washington St. defense that ranked 15th nationally in total defense (299 YPG), with a few portal additions for depth. So there ya go, some good news

  • Some additional key portal guys to watch for this year: former Sun Belt Freshman of the Year QB Jaylen Raynor (Ark St), South Dakota pass rusher Caden Crawford, TE Tyler Forenberry (Ark St.), Tarleton State stud wideout Cody Jackson, and a handful of others.

  • The addition of the Washington State defense will bode well for the Cyclones, but I fear this offense may be a hot bag of stinky ass (sorry Mom). What else can you expect when a team gets completely turned over? The conference schedule isn’t too kind to ISU either, with a hot start against Utah, BYU, Arizona and Oklahoma State.

  • It’s gonna be a rough one guys, I’m sorry. Remember how cool it was opening the season in Dublin last year with an ranked OT win over Kansas State? Yeah, I member that too…

15. West Virginia: 4-8 (2-7)

• Big Rich Rodriguez is coming off a rough 4-8 second-stint-debut season with the Mountaineers, but I have faith in the alleged sexual harasser to turn things around a little this year (no I don’t).

  • Rich has done an excellent job bringing in copious amounts of recruits in just 2 short years, with nearly 80 signees. Combine that with consistent portal additions and you’ve got a completely new look WVU team in no time at all. The question remains, is a Rich Rod designed team a winning team? I’d say so yeah, or at least it has the potential to be. He’s done enough to cement his coaching + development skills, but it’s been over a decade since his last 10+ win season. With the new age of portal players and NIL, I’m curious to see if he has what it takes to build up a WVU team that rivals those of the mid ‘00’s squads.

  • Some of the aforementioned notable portal additions: RB Cam Cook from Jacksonville State (led the nation in rushing), UConns’ OG Carsten Casady, WKU pass rusher Harper Holloman, Memphis starting S Kamari Wilson and some much needed experience & depth at the LB position. Lord knows this defense will need all the help it can get in year 2 under DC Zac Alley, as he 0 returning starters.

  • Something to watch here is the potential QB battle. Incumbent starter Scotty Fox Jr. (sick name) is holding the reigns at the moment, but former Oklahoma QB Michael Hawkins Jr. comes in to challenge him. Hawkins is a hell of an athlete, but has been inconsistent in his limited appearances. He provides this offense a different look and some juice, so just something to note as they march to a 4-8 season.

14. Cincinnati: 4-8 (2-7)

• Year four of the Satterfield era, and the season’s headline storyline just got yanked out from under it entirely.

  • Quick catch-up in case you haven’t been following: Brendan Sorsby — the guy who nearly got Cincinnati to a Big 12 title game last year before bolting to Texas Tech for a reported $5 million — got ruled permanently ineligible by the NCAA over a gambling investigation, including bets placed on his own team back at Indiana. He fought it, won a temporary injunction, actually got cleared to play... and then Texas Tech’s own Board of Regents decided he wasn’t suiting up anyway amid mounting Big 12 pressure. He tried to jump to the NFL’s supplemental draft instead. The NFL didn’t hold one this year. So as of right now, Brendan Sorsby has no football to play anywhere in 2026. That’s a wild sentence to type about a guy who was considered a potential Heisman candidate just nine months ago.

  • The actual QB storyline for Cincy: JC French IV, the Georgia Southern transfer, taking over for the departed Sorsby. New OC, new DC, new starting quarterback, that’s still three rebuilds happening at once, gambling scandal or not.

  • Now, the schedule. Four straight home dates to open before the first true road trip at Arizona. The back half is still the tougher stretch with Utah, Houston, Iowa State, BYU, mostly on the road.

  • The Verdict: I’ve got them at 4-8. Satterfield had some offseason success with a few key portal additions on defense that should give some stability to this team, but I just think they have too much of an uphill battle this year.

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13. Colorado: 5-7 (3-6)

• So this is probably Deion’s last year at Colorado, right? Maybe so, maybe not, but 1 winning season in 3 years, with an overall record of 16-21 isn’t exactly “crushing it”. That 9-3 season with Travis Hunter was pretty cool though not gonna lie. Unfortunately for Sanders, talent like that isn’t exactly flooding into Boulder.

  • The Buffs open with back-to-back true road games against Power conference programs to start the year, which CU hasn’t done since 1994, going to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech and then to Evanston to play Northwestern. That’s a pretty neat stat and all, but not the best way to build momentum headed into a much needed bounce back year.

  • Colorado does have the benefit of hosting most of their marquee games this year, with Utah, Houston and Texas Tech all coming to town. Now, they’re gonna lose all of these games, but at least the fans don’t have to travel across the country to see winning football played in Boulder.

  • Okay, okay, okay that’s enough ragging on Colorado. Let’s recap what they did this offseason: a new OC in Brennan Marion (former Sac State HC), a completely retooled WR room with the addition of Deandre Moore (Texas) and FBS yards leader Danny Scudero (SDSU), a total of 42 incoming transfers, and a complete reset button defensively with only 1 returning starter. DC Chris Marve will absolutely have his work cut out for him, but they made some splashes along the LB and DB positions that should be more than serviceable. With this much roster turnover, an unproven QB and overall lack of faith in the coaching staff, this is a 5-7 team.

12. Kansas: 5-7 (3-6)

• Lance Leipold’s Kansas tenure has this weird shape to it. Three straight years of real improvement, then two straight years of falling flat on its face down the stretch. That’s the story again in 2026, and I genuinely don’t know which version shows up.

  • Here’s the ugly: Kansas lost 5 of their last 6 games in 2025, and 4 of their 6 conference losses came by two scores or more. That’s a team that struggled to finish games, and requires some real help on both sides of the ball.

  • So, the fix? Andy Kotelnicki is back in the building as assistant head coach, the same guy who ran Kansas’ top 20 nationally ranked 2023-24 offenses before leaving. If reuniting him with this roster works, this offense has a real ceiling. If it doesn’t, we’re doing this exact same conversation again next August.

  • Truly though my biggest concern is this QB room. Rice transfer Chase Jenkins has the most starting experience, but a former walk-on (Cole Ballard) and a dual-threat (Isaiah Marshall) are both in the mix. Nothing here screams “settled,” which is a scary place to be heading into a bounce-back year. Leipold is yet to name a starter, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a QB by committee approach to start the season until one of them really steps up.

  • While QB uncertainty is not fun and typically the top concern for most schools, the defense might be the bigger problem. D.K. McDonald’s first year as full-time coordinator was rough, and getting run over on the ground was the recurring theme. They went portal-heavy at linebacker and D-line to fix it — Boston College’s Daveon Crouch, Kentucky’s Landyn Watson, Michigan State’s David Santiago all arrive to patch holes.

  • The good news is there’s a real formula for improvement here. Kotelnicki’s return and a defense that has nowhere to go but up. I have my reservations but I really trust Leipold and believe in his ability to squeeze the most of out a roster this fresh.

11. UCF: 5-7 (2-7)

• Scott Frost’s rebuild of his old program hits year two, and the pitch is pretty simple: the defense already showed up in 2025 (4th in the Big 12 in total defense), now it’s the offense’s turn.

  • Let’s start with the actual bright spot because UCF doesn’t get enough credit for it, Alex Grinch’s defense was genuinely good last year, ranking 38th nationally in total defense. Six of those starters are back, and that is the foundation this whole season is built on. A name to watch on this defense will be portal add Ty Bartrum from Harvard, where he was an FCS All-American a year ago.

  • The offense is the actual question mark, and it’s been a two-year question mark now. Bottom-40 nationally in third-down conversion, turnover-prone, all despite moving the ball fine between the 20s. Two former starters are fighting for the QB job; Alonza Barnett III (James Madison, made a CFP appearance there) and Keyone Jenkins (FIU, lotta reps), and whoever wins that battle basically controls the season.

  • 5-2 at home & 0-5 on the road last year is about as split a personality as a team can have, and that gap needs to close for this to actually be a bowl eligible team. Unfortunately, with the question mark at QB, consistent offensive inconsistencies, and Scott Frost remaining the primary play-caller, I am doubtful.

10. Baylor: 6-6 (4-5)

• Dave Aranda got a lifeline nobody expected him to get, and he’s spending it on a name that once had every recruiting service in the country losing their minds.

  • DJ Lagway. Former five-star, the guy Florida built its whole quarterback future around, and now he’s in Waco after he decided to become a turnover machine, leading the SEC in interceptions (14) last year. That’s either the best value pickup of the entire portal cycle or a cautionary tale in “trusting you gut” against two years of hard evidence. Good thing Baylor’s whole season probably hinges on which version of him shows up.

  • Here’s the truth about 2025 Baylor: They allowed 30+ points in six of their final seven games. That’s not what I would call a “slump”, that’s a defense that never had a chance, even with an offense that was legitimately one of the best in the conference under Jake Spavital and QB Sawyer Robertson (306 passing YPG — 2nd nationally).

  • So, Aranda finally swallowed his defensive pride and went out and got Joe Klanderman, Kansas State’s DC who consistently produced of the best units in the Big 12. If the hire actually works, Baylor’s floor jumps considerably, because the offensive foundation with Spavital calling plays isn’t the problem.

  • One returning starter on the entire offensive line. One. Everything else up front is brand new, built through the portal (Toledo, UAB, Memphis transfers). That’s my biggest concern when it comes to DJ and his development, as the man handles pressure about as well as a UGA player handles driving the speed limit. With this new look o-line, I’m worried we may see more of the DJ of old…

  • Bears fans have been burned by “this is the year” before, so I won’t pretend I’m fully bought in, but a genuine QB name change plus an actual defensive fix is more than Aranda’s had to work with in a while. I’ve got them at winning a few that they probably shouldn’t, and finishing bowl eligible at 6-6.

9. TCU: 7-5 (4-5)

• There’s a version of this preview where TCU is the trendy pick, and there’s a version where they’re stuck being exactly what they’ve been for three straight years — solidly good, never great. I think we find out which one this year, mostly because of the quarterback change.

  • Josh Hoover’s joined the Cignetti hype train (transferred out after years as the starter), and TCU’s answer is Jaden Craig, a Harvard transfer. The pitch is simple: be productive and cut down on turnovers. Turnovers have been the one recurring flaw in an otherwise clean offensive operation the last two years. With an OL returning 2 starters, a handful of rotational depth, and two good portal additions (FIU OG Jaheim Buchanon & OK St. Noah McKinney), I like the makeup of this unit.

  • TCU’s recent ceiling problem is pretty explainable: all four of their losses last year came in conference play. They’re not losing to bad teams, they’re losing specifically inside the Big 12, which is either a scheduling quirk or a real “good, not great” tell depending how you want to read it. For me, that’s the ‘ol “Can’t get over the hump” problem.

  • Andy Avalos’ defense is the actual X-factor here. Five returning starters, a defensive front that was legitimately excellent against the run, and the expectation internally is for a real leap this season. If that leap happens alongside a turnover-fixed offense, TCU’s ceiling goes from “solid bowl team” to “actual conference contender” fast.

  • Sonny Dykes has kept this program relevant for three straight years without ever quite breaking through to the top tier, and I don’t think this is the year that changes unless the defensive leap is real. Pair that with a tough conference slate deep into the season, and I think they are in for a rough November.

8. Arizona State: 8-4 (6-3)

• I think this is the most disrespected 8-win teams in the country, and I’m not even sure “disrespected” is strong enough given how the roster got put through a wood chipper this offseason.

  • Last year’s version was legitimately in Big 12 title contention deep into the season, only for injuries and some offensive regression from Sam Leavitt to knock them off course. 8-5, 6-3 in conference, a Sun Bowl appearance. That’s not a bad year, that’s a good year that just fell short of great.

  • Here’s the number that should scare you if you’re an ASU fan: 49% returning production, 128th nationally. Leavitt’s gone. Four players to the NFL. This is close to a full roster teardown.

  • The good: Kenny Dillingham kept his entire coaching staff on the payroll, which might be the single most important stat on this page. Programs that keep continuity at the top while reloading through the portal tend to hit the ground running, and ASU went out and got Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley to lead a QB competition, plus two genuinely dangerous receiver transfers in Reed Harris (Boston College) and Omarion Miller (Colorado) make this one of the most dangerous WR rooms in all of CFB. Defensively, linebacker Owen Long, who led the entire country in total tackles last year at Colorado State, might be the best single portal pickup on this whole roster. Long is walking into a defense that was already in good shape, adding multiple high level defensive backs and DL through the portal as well.

  • I trust Dillingham to continue being an excellent coach, but there are a few tough spots on this schedule I don’t think they can overcome. Leavitt leaving is likely worth at least two wins, so a scrappy 8-4 is where we land.

7. Oklahoma State: 8-4 (6-3)

• I need you to know right away that I am showing an immense amount of restraint and non-bias here, because I LOVE Eric Morris and Drew Mestemaker and could easily predict a 10-2 season. Unfortunately, I believe in talent and conference adjustments for coaches and players in Year 1, so I’m gonna be a bitch and go with 8-4.

  • The use of the “b-word” may seem unnecessary (sorry Mom) but my gut says this team is going to be so fun and have such a high ceiling. The caveat to that high ceiling is an equally low floor, which grounds me a bit and helps me land at 8-4. One look at the schedule and most of you should agree. Oregon, Texas Tech, @ Houston are all no joke. It’s a lot to ask out of a first year head coach who is taking over a 1-11 squad, even if he imported his entire North Texas team.

  • Morris brought over more than 20 players and 35 members of his North Texas staff. That is one hell of an overhaul, but it shows one thing that is seemingly harder and harder to come by nowadays: loyalty. We know QB Drew Mestemaker and all the talent he brings (led the country in passing yards in 2025), but let’s highlight some of my other favorite Mean Green stars: RB Caleb Hawkins (led the nation with 25 rushing TDs (29 total) as a freshman last year, WR Wyatt Young (1,264 yards & 10 TDs), and LB Ethan Wesloski (leader of the defense, 1 of 8 contributors on that side to follow Morris.)

  • Defensively, they are led by former NT DC Skyler Cassity, who found quick success at North Texas, but the Big 12 is a bit of a different ball game. I trust him and the staff to make a solid crew out of this amalgamation they have of Ok St. defensive returners & familiar Mean Green faces. If they can be decent, this Pokies team can make some serious noise behind all the offensive firepower they have.

  • An 8-4 season would be the largest swing/turn around likely in the FBS this season, and I fully believe Eric Morris and Co. can do it. Anything more is what I would consider to be a cherry on top, but if we are in November and this team is in the hunt for Big 12 contention, it wouldn’t shock me at all.

6. Kansas State: 8-4 (5-4)

• The prince who was promised has finally returned home, as former Heisman trophy finalist Collin Klein takes over as Head Coach. The 36 year old will be the youngest coach in the conference, but has the pedigree and skills to find quick success.

  • The bet here is that reuniting QB Avery Johnson with Klein, the guy who developed him years ago as the OC, finally unlocks the passing game that’s been missing. If it works, this offense has real juice given the run game was already good with leading rusher Joe Jackson returning.

  • With 70% returning production (30th nationally), Klein isn’t walking into a rebuild, he’s walking into a program with real bones already in place. For a first year HC, that’s a huge advantage. While we are talking huge advantages, let’s talk schedule. The Wildcats may have the easiest schedule in the conference this year, with no BYU or Texas Tech + home games against Houston, TCU and Arizona.

  • One of Klein’s first and best moves as Head Coach was to hire Jordan Peterson away from Texas A&M and give him the reigns to the defense. Peterson will have his work cut out for him, as KSU only returns 3 starters from a year ago. A few key DL portal additions and an experienced secondary should smooth that over, but I’m worried about the middle of this defense, as the LB core is depleted.

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5. Arizona: 9-3 (6-3)

• I am high on Arizona this year. Pairing one of the most underrated QBs in the country with one of the most underrated head coaches in the country in a conference that I believe is wide open. Recipe for success.

  • When Jeff Fisch left for Washington a few years ago, budding star QB Noah Fifita decided to remain loyal and stay with new coach Brent Brennan. 3 years later and the Wildcats are fresh off of a 9 win season and poised for a Big 12 title run.

  • Fifita has improved each year, the WR core is renewed thanks to a few nice portal additions (WVU Rodney Gallagher & USC DJ Jordan) and they return leading WR Tre Spivey. Along the OL, they return two key starters and filled in the gaps thanks to a few newcomers from the portal.

  • The defensive turnaround might be even more impressive than the offensive one. Danny Gonzales got promoted to DC and Arizona finished the year forcing more turnovers per game than any team in the country. Not top-10, not top-5, first in the nation. That’s a program identity, and it’s the whole reason a rocky start turned into a five-game winning streak to close the year. The secondary is the one glaring concern here, with heavy portal turnover there after last year’s takeaway machine loses key pieces, but Arizona attacked the portal hard to offset it, landing Oregon safety Daylen Austin and Wyoming corner Tyrese Boose as the headline additions.

  • I think this is a legitimate top tier potential Big 12 team. The quarterback's proven, the defensive identity is real, and the schedule sets up favorably enough to back that up.

4. Utah: 9-3 (6-3)

• Kyle Whittingham walked away on his own terms, and it's hard to script a better exit than an 11-2 season with the program's identity fully intact. The torch now passes to Morgan Scalley, who was already the internal pick everyone expected. What can we, the Ute faithful, expect?

  • Devon Dampier is the headline here, and for good reason. The dual-threat quarterback who followed his OC from New Mexico last year immediately turned Utah’s offense into one of the best rushing attacks in the entire country. He’s back, and now there’s a new OC (Kevin McGiven) taking over what Jason Beck built, which is the one real continuity risk on this whole roster.

  • No returning starters on the offensive line after a wave of NFL departures is a real red flag worth sitting with, that’s the unit protecting Dampier and opening holes for what was the best rushing attack in the country last year, completely rebuilt from scratch. They did well in the portal, but honestly Whittingham’s legacy recruits are going to be carrying the weight of this OL unit. 5 🌟 freshman OL Kelbin Obot will likely see playing time this year, and could be a huge contributor if he gels nicely.

  • The defense has been the standard for years under this staff, and the only teams that consistently solved it last season were Texas Tech and BYU. Stars like Pupu Sepulona (fun name to say out loud), Ethan Day and Lucas Samsula will lead this defensive front, while senior LB Johnathan Hall will quarterback this unit alongside returning DBs Jackson Bennee and Elijah Reed.

  • While this programs floor will always be one of the highest in the conference, I think we may see some 1st year head coach growing pains that could cost them in big games.

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3. Houston: 11-1 (8-1)

• Houston may be a problem this year ladies and gentlemen. I’ve said some naughty things behind closed doors about this team and their expectations this year, and I’m fired up.

  • Head coach Willie Fritz shocked everyone last year with a 10-3 season following his incumbent 4-8 debut. He went out in the portal last year and found his gem in former Texas A&M Aggie Conner Weigman. Weigman was a former 5 🌟 recruit that just needed a change in scenery to realize his powers. The young man found immense success in Houston last season, compiling 3,400 total yards and 36 TDs. His leading man, Amare Thomas, returns after recording nearly a 1,000 yard season (966) and 12 TDs. Another familiar face to the Fritz offense is RB Makhi Hughes, who ran for 2,700 yards and 20+ TDs for Fritz at Tulane.

  • Defensively, this unit returns 6 starters across the board, and landed some experienced depth to bolster that side of the ball. I expect improvement from this unit in year 2 under DC Austin Armstrong, as they were mediocre at best throughout the year in both run and pass defense.

  • What really sold me on this Cougar team was the combination of all the aforementioned with a schedule that is quite favorable. They get Texas Tech early (which I think may be the best time to get them), and then run through the conference schedule @ Kansas St., @ Utah and @ WVU. I think there are a lot of winnable games this year, and I do trust Fritz and Weigman to be a formidable duo in the close coin-flip games. This program is building something special, and if they get hot, watch out.

2. Texas Tech: 11-1 (8-1)

• Roughly ~$60M in “donations” over the last two years has this Texas Tech Red Raider program completely turned around, as this is the premier program in the conference.

  • The reality of last season: an elite defense (statistically one of the best in the entire country) and a dominant regular season still ended in an embarrassing shutout loss in the CFP quarterfinal. That’s the real story of this program right now, they’ve bought a machine that puts them at the top of the Big 12 with ease, but there’s still a ceiling above them they haven’t broken through.

  • Now, onto the Big News at hand. The QB they went out and spent $6M on, had a past of gambling that would make Cosmo Kramer proud. Former Cincinnati Bearcat Brendan Sorsby was locked in as the guy when a gambling investigation ended all of that before it even started. The fallback options: Will Hammond coming off an ACL tear, a Tulsa transfer, a redshirt freshman. These are all a real step down from what the plan was, and I think it’s fair to call this the one soft spot on an otherwise stacked roster.

    A sneaky option that may workout in a coming days, is QB Thomas Castellanos. Yes, that guy who beat Bama last year at FSU and was JUST granted a 5th year of eligibility. He is the wildcard, and I’m not sure he would elevate this team to the heights Sorsby could’ve, but he’s an interesting candidate nonetheless.

  • Terrance Carter Jr. returns at tight end as, by reputation, the best at the position in all of college football. Pair that with a running back duo (Cameron Dickey, J’Koby Williams) that combined for 2,000 all-purpose yards, and this offense has enough juice to cover for uncertainty at quarterback.

  • The defensive portal class might be the best single unit haul in the country. Consisting of multiple All-Conference transfers stacked at the line alone, on top of a defense that was already elite. If last year’s defense terrified people, this year’s has no business being worse. Big names on this defense to watch include DE Trey White, DB Brice Pollock and true freshman 5 🌟 LaDamion Guyton.

  • A ton of talent, great coaching, depth everywhere, but a QB question mark leaves me with one big concern. I think Houston may shock some people in Week 4, leaving an interesting Big 12 picture come December.

1. BYU: 11-1 (9-0)

• Head ball coach Kalani Sitake has garnered national attention, and the Penn State opening nearly took him away from the Cougars this offseason, but a new long-term contract extension has the former BYU alumnus ready to compete for their first CFP playoff birth.

  • No team in the Big 12 has more conference wins over the last 2 years than BYU, which gives them a more than compelling case for the preeminent program in the conference (sorry Texas Tech). A fully healthy roster that is returning nearly 70% of it’s production and 8 defensive starters has me feeling reallllly good about this selection.

  • This is it, the year that the world learns about LJ Martin. I’ve been watching this 6’2 225 pound RB from El Paso for the last 3 years, and have been waiting for the national media to finally give him the flowers he deserves. Coming off of a breakout year, 1,500 total yards & 12 TDs, I think he’s due to repeat that success. His right hand man Bear Bachmeier also returns to quarterback this offense, coming off of a fantastic freshman campaign. Bachmeier is an absolute unit on the ground, with 11 rushing TDs a year ago, but his arm will need to improve if this BYU offense is looking to take the next step.

  • Defensively, they’re gonna be stacked. A ton of returning experience everywhere, some added portal pieces for depth, and maybe the best LB room in the conference. This should feed nicely into BYU’s game plan: run the ball, dominate time of possession, win.

  • I like the Cougars to run the table in the conference, and get back to the championship game, where they will hoist their first ever Big 12 Championship trophy, earning a spot in the CFP.

We’ve got some more content coming your way with the Big 10 preview and predictions releasing mid to late week. In the meantime, let me know your thoughts!

17. Stanford (3-9)

• Yes, we are starting at the bottom of the barrel here, because we need to build up to the big boys of the conference. Some notes on the Cardinal:

  • It’s been 7 years since Stanford last appeared in a bowl game, and I don’t think this year is any different. Tavia Pritchard enters his first year as Head coach, and boy does he have his work cut out for him.

  • A few key portal additions here may add a much needed spark to this all but smoldering dumpster fire of a team; Nico Brown (FCS All-American WR - Yale), Carter Shaw (Promising young WR - UCLA) and Davis Warren (QB - Michigan). I really like Brown, he was a stud at the FCS level, but can he recreate the 1,000 yard 11 TD production against a more challenging level of competition?

  • Defensively, not much action at all in the portal, and while they do return a majority of the starters, those dudes ranked 105th nationally in overall defense.

  • If I were a Stanford fan, all my hopes and dreams are riding on the battle for the Axe at Cal to close the season. Can the Cardinal reclaim the Axe for the first time since 2020? Coming off a 4-8 season last year, I don’t see much improvement in Y1 for Pritchard’s squad.

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16. Boston College (3-9)

• Gross, I know, but somewhere in Boston there is a mal-adjusted catholic kid who stumbles across this post and decides to read for the first time in years. Imagine his hypothetical surprise when his favorite team, College (they just call em ‘College’ up there in Boston, no need to say ‘Boston’), has an unserious season preview. The thought of little Sean, Patrick, Luke, Matthew, etc. being upset at that hypothetical inspires me to give them a proper preview.

  • This team will be bad, very bad, but they may start off 2-2, and that’s as good as it’ll get. They face off against 3 of the top 5 teams in the conference, plus Notre Dame.

  • The QB room is completely turned over: Dylan Lonergan (former 4 🌟) left for Rutgers, Grayson James is out of eligibility, and redshirt-JR Mason McKenzie is the presumptive starter. The D-II transfer QB will have his work cut out for him.

  • Defensively, there is nowhere to go BUT up. No player recorded more than 2.5 sacks all season, they allowed 200+ rush yards 5 times, and the defense has had an immense roster turnover on that side of the ball. New DC Ted Roof looks to revamp that unit, and Head Coach Bill O’Brien (yes, that one) looks to improve in Year 3.

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15. North Carolina (5-7)

• Year 2 of the Bill Belichick experiment in Chapel Hill goes about the same as year 1, maybe with less headlines relating to his 49 year age gap girlfriend.

  • New OC Bobby Petrino (yep) looks to do what former OC Freddie Kitchens could not, score more than the other team. Luckily, the bar is literally on the floor — UNC finished 129th out of 134 qualified FBS teams in total offense last year.

  • There is currently a 4 man QB competition between transfers Billy Edwards Jr. (Maryland & Wisconsin) Miles O’Neill (TAMU) Au'Tori Newkirk and Travis Burgess. It seems to be leaning towards O’Neill, but Petrino and Belichick have refrained from giving any sort of insight so I suppose I’m just full of shit.

  • God must be punishing Bill for his hubris (actively dating a woman a half century younger than him) because this schedule is absolutely brutal. A slate that includes Clemson, Notre Dame, Miami, Louisville, and NC State. If the QB situation shapes up, I think they limp to at least 4 wins, likely 5, but I don’t see them being bowl eligible this year.

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14. Syracuse (5-7)

• Couple of things here right off the bat - I love Fran Brown, this schedule is rough, and if Steve Angeli isn’t 100% coming off that achilles injury, they have former 5 🌟 Malachi Nelson hot and ready.

  • So, the schedule, let’s talk about. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, starting off with what I would consider an auto-win (New Hampshire), and then straight in to ACC play with Cal coming to town. The meat of the schedule is late October through November, as the Orange face Louisville, SMU, Clemson, NC State and Notre Dame. I can hear your “Damn”, and that’s the correct response. It’ll be tough sledding but I think they have enough coaching and scrappiness to steal one (or two) of those games.

  • The Good: Hiring former Toledo defensive coordinator Vince Kehres is a HUGE win. Kehres had the 25-26 Rocket defense ranking 2nd nationally in total defense, 4th in scoring defense, 5th in passing defense, and held opponents under 15 points in 3/4 of their games. The Orange also added Juan Castillo from Michigan to fix that horrible o-line. Castillo has his hands full being tasked with rebuilding this depleted unit, but got busy in the portal to fill those gaps.

  • The Verdict: 5-7 feels right. I like Angeli a lot, and Fran went and got depth at the QB position, as well as a few real difference makers on that side of the ball (TE Noah Meyers is that guy), but this schedule is just not favorable.

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13. Wake Forest (5-7)

• It’s taking a lot out of me to not have the Demon Deacons at a minimum 6 wins, I really like the schedule and I trust head coach Jake Dickert, but I’m afraid the math just isn’t mathing.

  • Wake has the benefit of a favorable home schedule draw (Miami, Duke, UVA), but travels to Louisville, NC State, Cal, and SMU. An early look-ahead trap game in West Lafayette is something I’m keeping my eye on, just 6 days before the Deacs welcome Miami for Friday night lights.

  • Dickert came into the ACC last year as a first head coach and led the Demon Deacons to 9 wins, marking just the 4th time in school history Wake has hit that mark. They capped the year with a Duke’s Mayo bowl win over Mississippi State, and return some key leaders on both sides of the ball. Former UNC QB Gio Lopez joins the fold as the presumed starter, replacing Robby Ashford.

  • I like this squad, they’re fine, but unfortunately I don’t see anything special happening this season.

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12. Florida State (6-6)

• What a downfall we’ve seen from the Seminoles in just a few short years. Two straight losing seasons, and fresh off of a 5-7 season that started with so much hope, as FSU opened Week 1 with that huge upset win over Alabama. However, from that point on, it was all downhill. Will Norvell right the ship? Will he be fired by October? Nobody really knows, but let’s speculate together.

  • Before we get too into schedule talk, let’s talk transfer portal additions. Former Stanford/Auburn QB Ashton Daniels is your new QB1, former Texas RB Tre Wisner joins stud sophomore Ousmane Kromah, and you brought in 5 OL for added depth and experience. Defensively, I really like the addition of LBs Chris Jones (Southern Miss) and Mikai Gbayor (UNC) who will be day 1 starters and impact guys. Those are just a few of the 23 total transfer Mike and his staff brought in, hoping to wash the program of this losing culture.

  • Alright, now time to get real. FSU will lose to the following teams this year: Miami (duh), Alabama (revenge game), @ Louisville, NC State. Now, that’s only 4 losses so you’re probably wondering why I chose 6-6 as their record, and it’s simple, these are the games they are supposed to lose. HC Mike Norvell and QB Ashton Daniels combined poor decision making skills will most definitely result in one, probably two, maybe even 3 additional losses. They have Clemson, @ Pitt, SMU and Florida on the schedule as well, and I can easily see them dropping any of these games.

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11. California (7-5)

• Now we are starting to get into the gooodd stuff. First note here should be my overall disdain for California being a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference, but I digress. We can all collectively send hate to Larry Scott and George Kliavkoff for failing an entire conference, and sport.

  • Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. Give him a google, get to know him, he is a stud. I am telling you right now that I am biased, but he throws one of the prettiest balls in all of College Football right now. Fun Fact: JKS was the 2nd true freshman in FBS history to throw for 200+ in each of his first 11 career starts. I’m clearly bullish on his potential, but I think he is the 2nd best QB in this conference, behind only Darian Mensah.

  • With a QB like that, you’re probably wondering why I have them going 7-5, and that’s pretty simple, the rest of the team is but cheeks. Last year, Cal ranked 133rd out of 134 FBS teams in rushing offense, forcing a 17 year old lefty to carry the burden of this entire offensive production. Hopefully things are more balanced this year under new coach Tosh Lupoi (former Oregon DC) and his entirely overhauled staff.

  • A tough schedule, nearly 18k miles of travel (fact) and a first year coach tells me this is a 7-5 team, with one, maybe two potential fun upset wins.

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10. Duke (7-5)

• Your defending ACC Champions here have had quite the offseason. From winning the conference but missing the playoffs, to losing their superstar QB just a week after he confirmed he had just re-signed (hate using that word in college sports). I think it’s appropriate if everyone reading this could pour one out for the Duke Blue Devils, they aren’t dead, but they were victim to big money rearing it’s ugly head in the reported amount of $10M for Mensah. Every Duke player, coach/staffer and fan will have the 11/14 game circled, when they travel to Miami to face Mensah.

  • With the exodus of Mensah and leading WR Cooper Barkate (transferred to Miami as well), I expect some growing pains offensively to start the season. Bringing in signal caller Walker Eget from San Jose State to pair alongside star RB Nate Sheppard should give this offense some much needed balance and juice. I expect Sheppard to be heavily featured in both the run and pass game, after his breakout 1,000 yard freshman campaign last year. At the WR position, the addition of Javen Nicholas (Charlotte) and Jared Richardson (Penn) gives Eget some productive route runners to pair alongside freshman standout Jayden Moore.

  • Defensively, I am a bit worried about the Blue Devils. This was the glaring weakness a year ago and they will need to be significantly better this year if Duke wants to be in the mix. They return 3 of 4 starters in the secondary, and added a few portal additions to bolster the DL, but will it be enough?

    

9. Pittsburgh (8-4)

• Pitt is officially one of my favorite underdog teams to watch this year in the ACC, and it’s mainly because of 1 man — QB Mason Heintschel. Mix that with a favorable conference schedule, head coach Pat Narduzzi, and I think the Panthers can make some noise/play spoiler.

  • Heintschel is coming off of a very exciting and successful freshman season, where he went 6-3 as a starter, was a semi-finalist for the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year, and was the 1st true freshman since Jameis Winston to throw for 3+ TDs & 300 yards in 3 of his first 6 career games. With his sights set on improving in year 2 under OC Kade Bell, I have high expectations for him and this well built offense.

  • Pitt returns 11 total starters, primarily in the trenches on both sides, and I think that aligns really well with Narduzzi’s punch-you-in-the-mouth style of play. This defensive unit will be under the tutelage of new DC Cory Sanders, who has been in and around the program since 2018, most recently the DBs coach. All signs point to this Pittsburgh team being the most well rounded and talented team Narduzzi has had thus far, making my very optimistic.

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8. Virginia Tech (8-4)

• James Franklin, welcome to the ACC brother. VT returns the highest percentage of production in the conference (~80%) and brings in a handful of blue chip talent thanks to the portal & former Penn State roster.

  • One of the best moves by new head coach James Franklin was to retain his predecessor Brent Pry, as his new DC. Pry and Franklin have known one another quite some time, as Pry served as the defensive coordinator for both Vanderbilt and Penn State under Franklin. Keeping around a familiar face that has a track record of defensive success under you is an underrated aspect of this new look Hokies team. For my VT fans who may not be super familiar with James Franklin, allow me to educate you. Franklin’s career record is 128-60, with only 2 losing seasons in his 14 years as a head coach. While many disgruntled Penn State fans will tell you he can’t win the big one, that didn’t stop Franklin from becoming the second most winningest coach in PSU history. Now, his record against AP Top 10 teams (4-21) and Top 5 teams (1-15) is a conversation for another time…

  • So, what will they look like? It’s a little tough to say, but returning 8 starters on offense and bringing in such a large and promising portal class (25 players) has me cautiously optimistic. It appears that Franklin believes that what he has in the building is enough to win now, so keep your eyes on these Hokies.

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7. NC State (8-4)

• I am more bullish on this NC State team than most sports writers/national media, but we do need to address the elephant in the room — this team got gutted by the portal. Losing their anchor & best OL Jacarrius Peak, star RB Hollywood Smothers, and top 2 WRs Terrell Anderson and Noah Rogers leaves a sizeable production hole to be filled.

  • Luckily, they DO return star QB CJ Bailey, despite many teams waving cash at the young man enticing him to enter the transfer portal. Bailey has all of the elite physical traits and makeup of a 1st round quarterback talent. The 6’6 220 pound junior is coming off a productive sophomore year: 3,100 yards, 31 TDs, 9 INTs, completing 68.8% of his passes. His biggest hurdle will be meshing with this new look offense, and finding his go to playmakers.

  • Speaking of playmakers, the Wolfpack utilized the portal to pick up 4 talented WRs; Davion Dozier (App St.), Jojo Trader & Chance Robinson (Miami), and All-MAC WR Victor Snow (Buffalo). On the offensive line, they retooled to replace Peak with former Texas IOL Daniel Cruz and Jimarion McCrimon who will pair nicely with the 3 returning starters in that unit. Former Nittany Lion & 4 🌟 FS King Mack joins an experienced secondary, but I do worry about the inexperience up front for this defense. If this front 7 can figure it out, I think NC State can be a real player in this conference.

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6. Virginia (9-3)

• Tony Elliott is one of the most underrated coaches in all of CFB in my opinion, and the evidence is in his overperforming Cavaliers team from just a year ago. Ahead of the 2025 season, UVA was projected to finish 14th in the league, and Elliott had them finish 11-3, as runner up in the ACC.

  • This year I see similar success, and we have a fun QB dynamic I am going to be keeping a close eye on. OC Desmond Kitchings brings in QB Beau Pribula (Mizzou) and QB Eli Holstein (Bama/Pitt), and while it is leaning Pribula, Holstein has the talent to step in should he need to. Elliott and his staff are clearly trying to recreate the portal plan/success of last years squad, by bringing in highly productive players who can contribute right away and giving the positional coaches a plethora of options.

  • While they only retain 3 starters on offense and 5 on defense, they are all key contributors. The 3 on offensive are all on the OL, with two who earned All-ACC honors a year ago. Defensively, this team is flushed with experience. Under DC John Rudzinski the Cavaliers play a high rotation scheme, allowing a ton of players reps and keeping them fresh.

  • A favorable schedule that avoids Miami, Clemson and Louisville does feature a backloaded conference slate, starting with a visit to SMU in mid October. I trust Tony Elliott, this experienced staff, and group of seasoned portal players to continue the success of last season and be a threat yet again.

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5. Georgia Tech (9-3)

• The name of the game for the 2026 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets is to run the damn ball. What better way to do that than to bring in former 5 🌟 RB Justice Haynes from the transfer portal. Haynes is coming off a season at Michigan where he battled injury, but flashed his 5 🌟 talent when healthy, averaging 7.1 YPC, 857 yards and 10 scores in just 7 games. Can he stay healthy? Will the $2M price tag prove to be worth it? We shall see.

  • The biggest hole to fill offensively here is the loss of QB/RB/Terminator Haynes King, who led the team in all passing and rushing statistical categories last year. Tech fans are aware of this, as well as the loss of promising backup to King, Aaron Philo. Philo followed his OC Buster Faulkner to Florida, where he is the presumed starter. Don’t worry though, GT went out and got the Walmart version of Fernando Mendoza via his young brother, Alberto. Nobody is quite sure of the younger Mendoza’s ceiling, but I trust this new OC George Godsey to have a plan for his alma-mater’s offense this year.

  • Defensively, this is a Brent Key team. They will be strong and gritty in the trenches on both sides of the ball, playing with physicality. The DL unit returns a ton of production for 1st year DC Jason Semore. The LB position will be in great hands, led by EJ Lightsey and Kyle Efford.

  • A lot will be riding on Mendoza and how well he can lead this offense, but I anticipate this GT team will lean heavily on Haynes and their experienced defense to keep them in these games.

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4. Clemson (9-3)

• I’m having a hard time with Clemson. Do I trust Dabo? Do I just completely ignore the atrocious 7-6 season from a year ago? I don’t know, but let’s talk about it.

  • First order of business: Clemson still has not announced their QB1 3 weeks out from their Week 1 matchup in Baton Rouge. As of today, 8/16/2026, the battle remains open between redshirt Junior Christopher Vizzina and true Freshman Tait Reynolds. While we aren’t sure what the hell the holdup is, maybe this is a Dabo masterclass in withholding that information in an effort to make LSU’s game prep a little more difficult? While that QB battle is raging on, the Tigers have other concerns. Clemson is replacing 4 OL starters, have an abundance of RBs with no clear #1 guy, and have finally broken the transfer hiatus, welcoming 9 new defensive players. However, a good sign for Clemson fans is the return of familiar face and former OC Chad Morris, who will have an abundance of talent in the WR room to work with.

  • Defensively, as I mentioned just a second ago, this is an overhauled unit with only 3 returning starters. One of whom is future 1st round pick LB Sammy Brown, who is the leader of this squad. The secondary is completely turned over, now filled with 3 transfer portal starters.

  • A lot of question marks remain, but I still trust Dabo despite my better judgement. He is seemingly more open to the idea of the portal, and has finally conceded his stubbornness when it comes to bringing in talent that way. I think Chad Morris will be a breath of fresh (yet familiar) air for Clemson fans, and the brand is still strong. Week 1 at LSU will be a good litmus test for the rest of the season, how will Dabo find a way to integrate this new age transfer dynamic with his existing culture?

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3. Louisville (9-3)

• I really like this Louisville team. HC Jeff Brohm has a proven ability to evaluate and develop talent year after year, putting them in conference championship conversations every season. This year is no different.

  • Similar to a few other ACC schools, the question mark offensively comes at the QB position. Former Ohio State QB Lincoln Kienholz will be the starter, but he is unproven. Kienholz was a 4 🌟 recruit and top 10 QB recruit nationally coming out of HS. He will be well positioned to have success, with OC Brian Brohm’s QB friendly system paired with a top 5 RB room in the country. RB Isaac Brown returns, after being one of the most sought after transfer portal targets of the offseason. Brown has an argument for best back in CFB, coming off a 8.8 YPC season just a year ago. His backup, Keyjuan Brown, is also a 7.3 YPC guy, with a ton of receiving upside as well. Other key returners on offense include TE Jaleel Skinner and WR TreyShun Hurry.

  • This defense returns some excellent pass rushing, with AJ Green and Clev Lubin leading the way. Antonio Watts will return as well, roaming the field as the STAR, bringing versatility and experience to a new-look secondary. Retooled via the portal, the backend of this defense could be a vulnerability, but the strength in run defense and pass rush should be plenty to mask that if so.

  • An SEC opening matchup against Ole Miss will be a fun test to see the Kienholz fit, the defensive congruency, and overall makeup of this Cardinal team.

2. SMU (10-2)

• SMU and HC Rhett Lashlee walked into the ACC 2 years ago and have been dominant since. They boast an impressive 14-2 conference record in that span of time, and look to continue their success this season behind super Senior QB Kevin Jennings.

  • Jennings is far and away one of the best athletes at the QB position in the country, but has battled injuries over the last few seasons that have limited his play style. He is truly at his best when he is a dynamic rushing threat, as it completely opens up this offense. In years past he has not had much help on the ground, and Lashlee has addressed that this offseason via portal addition Kendrick Raphael. The former Cal RB posted 1k yards and 13 TDs last year, looking to continue that production behind an experienced OL that returns 3 starters. If the Mustangs can create a more balanced ground attack and protect Jennings, I anticipate it being one of the more productive units in the conference.

  • A glaring weakness last year was this SMU pass defense, as they ranked 111th in the country a year ago. Lashlee addressed this issue in the portal as well, bringing in USF S Jarvis Lee and UTSA grad transfer Jimmy Wyrick. With an improved secondary and front 7 led by LBs Brandon Booker & Alex Kilgore, I expect the Mustangs to be contenders in this league yet again.

1. Miami (11-1)

• Here we are, the #1 team in the ACC. While we have been talking about all of these teams’ potential to “win” or “compete” for the ACC title, this is the only team in this conference that is a true National Championship contender, putting them on a completely different pedestal.

  • Not much to sugarcoat here, Miami is back. To say they reloaded would be fair, and I’d argue that they didn’t just reload, they improved. We’ve discussed the addition of Heisman caliber QB Darian Mensah, and he is an objective upgrade from Carson Beck. They return freshman standout WR Malachi Toney, stud RB Mark Fletcher Jr., brought in Mensah’s favorite weapon from Duke, WR Cooper Barkate, and are riddled with talent in the OL room, including freshman Jackson Cantwell. Needless to say this offense will be a high powered machine that features some of the best athletes at their respective positions.

  • On the other side of the ball, Cristobal returns 7 starters, including nearly the entire secondary. A big production gap will have to be filled with the graduation/draft of stars DE Ahkeen Mesidor, DL Reuben Bain Jr. and DB Keionte Scott, but huge transfer portal additions will see to that. Former UGA/Missouri Edge rusher Damon Wilson II and Keona Davis (Nebraska) will be tasked with taking over that production. Cristobal and his staff have done an excellent job of recruiting, coaching and attaining talent any which way. It also helps when you can shell out $10M for an awesome QB, but maybe that’s just a bit of my jealousy seeping through.

  • Miami has the talent, coaching, and now playoff experience to replicate their National Championship appearance from last year, but can they run the gauntlet of the ACC and win their first conference title in school history? Are there any threats on this schedule that can play spoiler? I don’t know, but I can’t wait to watch and find out.

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We’ve got some more content coming your way with the Big 12 preview and predictions releasing mid-week. In the meantime, let me know your thoughts.

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#10 Miami v. #1 Indiana (IND - 7.5 T: 46.5) 7:30pm on ESPN

No time to lallygag, we’ve previewed these teams 4 times each now throughout these playoffs, so at this point we know what we’re getting. I’ll keep this one brief but informative and then share my infinite wisdom with you all at the end, along with some Player Prop picks I love. Let’s enjoy this one!

1. Indiana: It’s been the same old same old through this entire playoffs — Play your Game. Stylistically, this Miami team does stack up extremely well physically, but Indiana has come across some of the nastiest lines in CFB and made it through to the other side. Their ability at the OL to communicate, pick up stunts and blitzes, strike at the point of attack, and operate this high powered RPO offensive makes them one of the best units in the sport. The name of that game has been sound, disciplined team football. You do not make mistakes, you’re surgical in your play calling, possessions, and run schemes. OC Mike Shanahan has been in his bag this post season, cooking up some RPO schemes that get Mendoza rolling early and often. Another plus of this RPO scheme has been this RB duo of Hemby/Black. Over the last 2 playoff games, this duo is averaging 168 combined YPG. I expect Shanahan to call a similar game to Ohio State, using the backs out of the backfield, quick RPO hitters, and then Mendoza’s patented back shoulder fade down the field to Sarratt and Becker. Miami is weakest in the secondary, and those downfield shots will be there in man coverage as soon as they establish the run. Elijah Sarratt, Charlie Becker, Omar Cooper, etc, give Fernando the tools to beat man, zone, come out of the backfield, turn a 5 yard gain into a 70 yard TD — just get it in their hands. Lastly, use those legs. He ran for 28 yards (long of 21) against Oregon, and it’ll be another sneaky important factor tonight as he evades the pressure from this talented Miami pass rush. As mentioned in previous previews, you are without DL Stephan Daley (FBS leader in TFLs), and that hurts, but you’ve had players step up in recent games. DL Daniel Ndukwe was huge in the Oregon win, recording 2 sacks and 3 pressures. The rest of the defensive strategy should revolve around what you do best — stop the run. Miami RB Mark Fletcher is a hammer, and they’re going to feed him until they are forced to throw. In the pass game, all eyes on Malachi Toney. The talented freshman is Becks favorite target, and is as elusive as any player in CFB. Keep him in front of you and make tackles.

2. Miami: Keep on running the damn ball. You’ve made it this far on the backs of those massive earth movers up front, on both sides, so continue letting them lead you to the promised land. I’ve noted how many 1st round talent-level guys you have in those units, so let them face this Indiana front that’s been arguably just as great, if not better, and see what happens. I’ve already mentioned RB Mark Fletcher and his success this postseason (averaging 131 YPG and over 6 YPC), and you have to continue to trust him. Indiana has been one of the best teams against the run all season, but at times has been susceptible to explosive plays. Fletcher has the ability to break those tackles and get to the second level, so I like his chances to pop one or two. QB Carson Beck hasn’t been asked to do all that much so far, but really answered the call against Ole Miss when his team was down late in the 4th, and he led them on a game winning drive. His decision making has been sound, taking what the defense is giving him and then tucking and running when he has a lane, in spots where he used to take sacks. Similar to the Ole Miss game, I believe Miami comes into this one keeping things simple — Run the ball, rule time of possession, keep Mendoza and this offense off the field. Defensively, it’s gonna be Rueben Bain, Ahkeem Mesidor and Keionte Scott. Your two 1st round DL/Edge rushers and your nickel corner who does not miss tackles. Bring the physicality to Indiana, and try to take away an aspect of their offense. The RPO is run to near perfection by Mendoza, but winning the early downs and putting them on their heels in 3rd and long situations will be crucial to getting that unit off the field.

Verdict: I simply cannot bet against Curt Cignetti again, so I’m taking the Hoosiers -7.5. I think Miami can win this ball game, but it requires a near perfect game from everyone, and I just like and trust Indiana in a battle of execution. Coach Cig has the fellas playing at an unbelievably high level, and this feels like a team of destiny. Game on the line, are you trusting Carson Beck to get the job done? Not sure I am.

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⭐️ National Championship Game Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza — o13.5 rush yards

🏅 Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt — o4.5 receptions + o0.5 rush/receiving TD

🏅 Indiana RB Kaelon Black — o50.5 rushing yards

🏅 Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt — o0.5 rush/receiving TD

🏅 Miami QB Carson Beck — o25.5 pass attempts

🏅 Miami RB Mark Fletcher — o16.5 rush attempts

🏅 Miami WR Malachi Toney — o4.5 receptions

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Rams (-3.5) @ Bears T:48.5

So, Solider field, 15 degrees and snowing, BEAR WEATHER. How will the golden boy, Matthew Stafford, hailing from sunny Los Angeles, handle this blistering cold weather? Well, in his last 10 games, he has a 1-9 record in games with snow or heavy rain, which isn’t great. Another stat for you though, he’s 5-1-1 against the spread in games under 35 degrees since 2015. He also averages 265 yards a game and has posted 14 TDs and 2 INTs. So, which version of him will we see? Let’s get into it.

1. Los Angeles: The number 1 ranked offense in the NFL in PPG (30.5) and passing YPG (268) comes into a hostile snowy environment. As prolific as this passing game has been, I think the star of this game is Kyren Williams. The running back quietly posted another 1200 yard 10+ TD season, and comes up against the 27th ranked rush Chicago Bears rush defense. Knowing McVay is an offensive mastermind, I fully expect him to empty the clip here with an abundance of unique run designs and play action calls. Get Kyren rolling, use backup Blake Corum and his thickkkk ass to hammer away for those hard yards, and then roll Stafford out to hit those TE flat routes and Puka Nacua crossers. I really love the matchup for this Rams offense, and I think exploiting this lackluster run defense will open up a ton of creative options downfield. Defensively, this Rams team has been pretty average. They rank among the mid teens in nearly every category, but excel at generating pressure off the edge and limiting explosive plays. Containing Caleb Williams to the pocket and limiting his play extension/magic (I don’t know what else to call it) will be crucial. You’ve also gotta expect Ben Johnson to call up some crazy plays and also empty the clip, which as a fan is super exciting. Keep Caleb in the pocket, limit explosives, cause chaos/force turnovers.

2. Chicago: First, let’s acknowledge how great of a run this has been this year. Chicago was optimistic about this year after the Ben Johnson hire, but I’m not sure anyone expected them to be a game away from the NFC Championship game. The effect Johnson has had on Caleb Williams and his development this year alone has been super fun to see, and very exciting if you’re a Bears fan. Now, to the offense. Similar to this Rams offense, Chicago runs the ball effectively and hits on explosive plays at a high clip. The offensive line has been great, especially in the run game in the second half of the season and through these playoffs. Holding off that Rams pass rush will be huge, and using the duo of Swift and Monangai in the run game will help keep them honest and give Caleb a few extra seconds on those play action plays. I expect Ben Johnson to get creative, giving Caleb some easy throws/screens/roll-outs, etc to get him going early, and then take their shots when they can. Ideally you’re in this game early and often, and can avoid another second half comeback, but if the latter occurs, you have the Ice-man. Defensively, commit to stopping the run. It’s been an issue all year, but if you can use the Bear weather to your advantage and force this Rams offense into obvious passing downs, I really like your odds. Stafford had put up pretty great numbers in cold weather despite the overall record, so just throwing that out there. You led the league in turnover margin and turnovers forced this year, so punch the ball out when you can and be as aggressive as you normally are. Bear weather is proof that the big man upstairs is on your side, use it!

Verdict: I’m backing the MVP of the league here, and taking the Rams to win and cover. I know the weather will make things interesting, but the Bears late game luck has to run out at some point, right?

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⭐️ NFC Divisional Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 Los Angeles RB Kyren Williams — o62.5 rush yards + ladder to o99.5

🏅 Los Angeles TE Tyler Higbee — o18.5 receiving yards

🏅 Los Angeles WR Davante Adams — o0.5 rush/receiving TDs

🏅 Chicago RB Kyle Monangai — o36.5 rush yards

🏅 Chicago QB Caleb Williams — o14.5 rush yards

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Texans @ Patriots (-3) T:40.5

Well, after the painful loss Josh Allen suffered yesterday, you’d think he could at least relax and get his mind off of the game, but now everywhere he looks (probably) will be stories about Bo Nix breaking his ankle on the last play of the game, ending his postseason run, and Drake Maye taking the next step with a chance to play in the AFC Championship game. I feel for Josh, but then again he’s 6’5, married to a superstar actress, makes $55M a year, and has his first born on the way, pretty good stuff going on for the boy. Anyway, we’re here to talk about this Texans v Pats game, so let’s do that.

We somehow have another AFC matchup that didn’t occur in the regular season, which is weird, but we do get to go back to the well here and break down this matchup as a — hypothetical.

1. New England: It is officially the Drake Maye era in New England, and he’s been nothing short of phenomenal this year. Boasting MVP statistics that have him as the near favorite (+160 on Bet MGM) just behind the Rams Matthew Stafford (-120). Maye led the NFL in completion percentage at 72%, QBR, yards per attempt and per completion, and totally flipped the script for this franchise in just one season, going from 3-14 to 14-3. A lot of conversation has been around the strength of schedule, or lack there of, but Maye can’t control that. All he can do is go out there and play Quarterback at the highest level for 17 weeks straight. Anyway, this doesn’t need to be a Drake Maye endorsement for MVP, but it definitely needed to be stated how great of a season he was having. He will have his work cut out for him today against this nasty Texans defense. Luckily, it’s not just Maye that makes this offense hum, as they are 1st in pass yards/attempt, EPA/attempt and explosive play rate. They have two great running backs, rookie Treveyon Henderson and veteran Rhamondre Stevenson, who lead this 6th ranked rush attack. WR Stefon Diggs and TE Hunter Henry lead this team in targets and receiving yards, and will likely be leaned on heavily here to get Maye going. Defensively, the Patriots are good. Statistically they’ve actually been better than “good”, ranking in the top 10 in every category, and face a Texans offense that has been worse than “good” all season. The pass rush has been suffocating recently, getting to QB Justin Herbert 6 times last week, and have to be licking their chops looking at this matchup. CJ Stroud has been uncomfortable in the pocket, and turning the ball over way too much. With star CB Christian Gonzalez clearing concussion protocol, this defense should be back in it’s full final form.

2. Houston: This one is easy, your defense must win this game for you. Your pair of pass rushers, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, have combined for 27 sacks this year, cementing themselves as the best edge rushing duo in the sport. Behind them just so happens to be more demons. A linebacking core and defensive back room that swarms to the football, leads the league in yards allowed per game (277), is 2nd in total takeaways (29), 2nd in PPG (17.4) and 6th in yards per carry (3.8). DBs Kamari Lassiter, Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre seek contact, play aggressive man defense, and play with insanely high energy. I expect Demeco Ryans and this Texans defense to do what they do best — generate sacks and pressures at a high rate to throw Maye off his game. Offensively, you are without star WR Nico Collin’s, as he is ruled out with a concussion, so your young studs will have to step up. Christian Kirk broke out last game against the Steelers (8r - 144 yards - 1 TD), and I expect Jayden Higgins to take that outside X WR position in Nico’s absence. How will he perform against Gonzo? I don’t favor anyone against Christian Gonzalez, much less a rookie who hasn’t played a ton of snaps, but we’ve seen crazier things happen. In addition to the WR’s, the RBs will always have to step up. Rookie RB Woody Marks had a huge game last week in Pittsburgh (19 carries - 112 yards - 1 TD) and will need to have another big day. The game plan for the Texans should be similar to that of the Steelers game plan — control time of possession, generate sacks and turnovers, have a balanced attack on offense that mitigates turnovers.

Verdict: I am taking the Texans in this one. I like Drake Maye and what he’s done this year, but in the playoffs I tend to trust the team with the better defense, and Houston has a nasty nasty crew. I think we are in for a really close game where we see CJ Stroud bounce back from his horrible performance a week ago.

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⭐️ AFC Divisional Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 New England RB Rhamondre Stevenson — o39.5 rush yards

🏅 New England WR Kayshon Boutte — o39.5 receving yards

🏅 New England QB Drake Maye — o35.5 rush yards

🏅 Houston RB Woody Marks — o52.5 rush yards

🏅 Houston WR Xavier Hutchinson — o30.5 receving yards

🏅 Houston RB Nick Chubb — o12.5 rush yards + ladder up to o29.5

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49ers @ Seahawks (-6.5) T:45.5

Unlike the earlier matchup, we’ve seen this movie twice now, as NFC West division rivals meet once again, after splitting the season series 1-1. This time around we have a very injured 49ers team, without their entire WR core and now TE George Kittle. How will they respond? Likely with a healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey. For the Birds, their Prince QB Sam Darnold will play through a lingering oblique injury, so how will that affect him? Let’s find out as we look into the keys of the game —

Somehow these AFC foes didn’t play each other this season, weird, but for that reason we get to engage in my favorite type of analysis — hypothetical. So, let’s start with Denver.

1. Seattle: You are a machine. You have a top 10 rushing attack as well as a top 10 passing attack. Lean on both stud RBs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, as they’re averaging 120 combined YPG, and then air that bitch out to Jaxon Smith-Njigba as often as you can. The 3rd year WR broke out this season and nearly led the NFL in receiving yards (1,793) was 4th in receptions (119), and 3rd in TDs (10). OC Klint Kubiak has this unit humming, scoring at the 3rd highest clip in the league. In the last matchup, which you won, you ran the ball very successfully. Walker and Charb combined for 240 total yards and 2 scores. They dominated on the ground and were threats through the air, and I fully expect them to be heavily involved in the gameplan tonight. Feed them, establish the run, and find ways to get the ball in JSN’s hands. Defensively, this crew is SCARY. Rookie DB Nick Emmanwori should win defensive Rookie of the Year, because he’s been unbelievable, and they swarm to the ball like crazy. Seattle is 1st in PPG (17.2), 1st in opponent 3rd down conversion (32.1), 3rd in rushing yards (91 YPG) and 5th in total yards (304). You held this 49ers offense to just 3 points in the last matchup and then 17 points in the loss, and I think if you do that again, you win.

2. San Francisco: Keeping this one short and sweet here. You are extremely short staffed here offensively, so get ready to learn Jake Tonges, Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne. Obviously we know about Christian McCaffrey, but this WR core will have to step up and help Brock Purdy. I expect Purdy to use his legs quite a bit in this one, as it’s usually an underrated aspect of his game. Love his o3.5 rushes prop because of that. While Seattle does boast one of the best rushing defensives in the league, I still expect Shanahan to attempt to establish the run. Getting the run game going is crucial to opening up play action and downfield shots, and they’ll need all the help they can get. Defensively, you have to imitate the early season matchup and control the time of possession. Keep the ball out of Darnold and this explosive offensives hands as much as you can, stop the run, put them in obvious pass downs and try to funnel everything towards the middle of the field. JSN will beat outside man coverage, so attempt to force him on in breaking routes across the field. This will be a knife fight, so if you’re the 49ers you best show up with your Glock.

Verdict: Sam Darnold is questionable, but he’s gonna play, and I wish I knew the extent of his oblique injury. Either way, I think I’m gonna have to back the Seahawks here -6.5. If Darnold turns back into a pumpkin then I’ll accept that loss, but I just think this defense is too good and the 49ers are too banged up. Seahawks win and cover the -6.5.

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⭐️ NFC Divisional Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey — o54.5 receiving yards

🏅 Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker — o58.5 rush yards

🏅 49ers WR Kendrick Bourne — o15.5 receiving yards + o1.5 receptions

🏅 49ers QB Brock Purdy — o3.5 rush attempts

🏅 Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet— o38.5 rush yards

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Bills @ Broncos (-1.5) T:45.5

Josh Allen, how long can you be Superman? Your Bills will need everything you’ve got, as they just lost another player to injury. WR Tyrell Shavers (ACL). Luckily, they just elevated WR Mecole Hardman from the practice squad, and activated WR Curtis Samuel. So, don’t worry Josh, you’ve got those guys coming to help you out. For the Broncos, they’ve been chillin. Securing the #1 seed and enjoying their bye week last week, let’s see if Bo Nix and company are a bit rusty. On the other side, I know All-Pro CB Pat Surtain will be ready, but uncertain as to who this Bills WR1 will be lol. I’ve got some keys to this game for each team, and per usual a prediction that will 100% be correct.

Somehow these AFC foes didn’t play each other this season, weird, but for that reason we get to engage in my favorite type of analysis — hypothetical. So, let’s start with Denver.

1. Denver: This matchup lines up great for Denver… if they could run the ball. The Bills have the 28th ranked rush defense, but the Broncos have really struggled to run the ball efficiently and effectively all season (18th in YPG). Rookie RJ Harvey has been okay, but honestly I think the most success Denver will have on the ground is through Bo Nix. His scrambling should kill the Bills. It’ll be imperative for him to take what the defense gives him here — whether that’s check down throws to move the sticks or scrambling when he has an open lane. He cannot force throws that aren’t there, that’s where he gets into trouble. This Buffalo secondary ranks 1st in YPG allowed, and forces turnovers at one of the highest rates of any playoff team. Sean Payton and Nix will have to enter this game from a methodical standpoint, attacking the weakness of this Bills defense up front via creative runs. Defensively, you’re the Denver Broncos, you’re gonna be just fineeee. You’ve got the 2nd best run defense (91 YPG), 3rd ranked in PPG (18.3), 4th in total yards (303 YPG) and a few of the best defensive players in football. Nik Bonitto and Johnathan Cooper have been your best pass rushers this season, and Pat Surtain will be on the outside completely locking down the Bills favorite outside target. Play your game here — stop the run, pressure the QB, play physical man defense. I do think in order to win this game, you’ll have to force some turnovers to give Nix and this offense extra possessions and some short fields. Combine that with the high altitude home field advantage, and you can absolutely win this game.

2. Buffalo: As I mentioned above, this must be another Josh Allen masterclass. Superman went for 3 total TDs and 300 total yards in the Wild Card round in Jacksonville, and most importantly he didn’t turn the ball over. Facing one the best run defenses in the league, he may be called upon more often to deliver the ball downfield. I still believe OC Joe Brady will be determined to establish the run, as NFL rushing champ RB James Cook is one of the best in the NFL himself. Denver’s run defense hasn’t been nearly as strong of late as it was to start the season, so I think some read options, designed QB runs and James Cook zone calls will have some success. To wrap up the offense, I think the tight-ends will be huge here. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are both mismatches in coverage against these Denver linebackers. If they choose to run man, I really like that matchup and the success moving the ball via attacking the middle of the field. James Cook & backup RBs Ray Davis/Frank Gore (yes that’s his son!) out of the backfield will be utilized as well, and then there is always the Josh Allen bulldozer option if all fails. The clear weakness offensively is this lackluster WR core. I alluded to it earlier, but it’s really these TE’s + Khalil Shakir. Shakir plays primarily out of the slot, so I don’t anticipate Surtain shadowing him — which is great news — but he will likely be bracketed in coverage. We saw Shakir rack in 12 catches against Jacksonville, being targeted on 33% of Allen’s dropbacks. I think he has another big day, as he will be heavily used in the screen game again here, and has a knack for finding soft spots in the zone when Josh does his scrambling out of the pocket. Defensively, you’ve really started to solidify this backend, but still struggle up front. They’re kinda all over the place in most categories defensively — 12th in PPG, 24th in 3rd down conversion, 7th in YPG — so I think stopping Nix from escaping, and leaning on your experienced secondary is the key to win. Outside of WR Courtland Sutton, Denver’s weapons don’t scare me. Neutralize Sutton, contain Nix, and force him to beat you with his arm.

Verdict: I am taking the Buffalo Bills to win this football game. No Mahomes, no Lamar, no Burrow, it’s gotta be Josh’s year. Trying not to let my love for him cloud my judgment in this pick, but in the playoffs it’s about who you trust, and I just don’t trust Bo Nix. Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills!

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⭐️ AFC Divisional Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 Denver QB Bo Nix — o24.5 rush yards

🏅 Buffalo QB Josh Allen — o36.5 rush yards

🏅 Buffalo WR Khalil Shakir — o5.5 receptions + ladder to 8.5

🏅 Denver RB RJ Harvey — o13.5 rush attempts

🏅 Buffalo WR Brandin Cooks — o1.5 receptions + o24.5 yards

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#5 Oregon v. #1 Indiana (IND - 3.5 T: 48.5) 7:30pm on ESPN

Well, after starting the 2nd round 2-0, I stupidly picked Bama to upset this wagon of an Indiana team, and then had my heart broken as Ole Miss outlasted UGA behind a generational performance from Trinidad Chambliss. 2-2 isn’t so bad, and now we have a matchup of the 3rd best ACC team & 3rd best SEC team, and on the other side, it’s a rematch between Oregon and Indiana. We saw Ole Miss fall last night as Miami outlasted them behind that wall of massive Latinos up front, and RB Mark Fletcher putting together another 130 yard rushing performance. Miami awaits the winner of Indiana and Oregon, as the Peach Bowl winner will head to Miami to face the Hurricanes in a home field championship game.

So, which of these teams will rep the B1G Ten in that game, and what’re the keys to victory?

1. Oregon: Same game script as Texas Tech — you have to run the ball. Indiana has one of if not the best rush defense in the country and RB Noah Whittington averaged over 7 yards per carry (YPC). Whittington is a little banged up coming into this matchup, so I expect to see some of the true freshman Dierre Hill to get some looks. He’s got plenty of explosion and can make a name for himself tonight if he can take advantage of his looks. Last time out, Oregon fell behind and moved away from the run game, and I think that’s was a mistake. QB Dante Moore was rushed, and you could tell he was forcing throws into windows that were not open, leading to 2 INTs. Despite the injuries, you’ve gotta lean on the rushing attack to open up throwing lanes for Moore, let him get comfortable and do what he does best, be surgical and decisive down field. The explosives will come naturally if you have a balanced offensive attack. Find ways to work those super talented TEs the ball. We know all about the TE1 in this years NFL Draft, Kenyon Sadiq, but look out for Jamari Johnson. Another athletic, lengthy playmaker who is capable of moving the sticks and outrunning coverages. The combination of run and pass will give you what you want — a balanced attack that keeps your offense on the field. The last thing I’ll say about this offense is you HAVE to take better care of the football and HIT on your aggressive decisions. In the TTU game Dan Lanning turned the ball over on downs 4 times, all in Red Raider territory. If you do that against Indiana, you lose, period. Defensively, you’ve gotta pressure Mendoza. Watch the first few drives of the Alabama game, and if they did anything right in that game, it was disrupt the RPO nature of that offense and force Mendoza out of the pocket. This Oregon DL is much improved, so show this Indiana front your strength and stop the run.

2. Indiana: Play your game. The name of that game has been sound, disciplined team football. You do not make mistakes, you’re surgical in your play calling, possessions, and run schemes. Allow OC Mike Shanahan to get in bag here, and cook up some awesome run schemes. I guarantee you Oregon does not have all the countered run fits to match your many run designs, so let RBs Hemby and Black put their pads down and move the sticks. Mendoza, you’ve been excellent, just continue to be cool, calm and collected and lead this offense. When it needs you tonight, and it will at times, deliver accurate passes to your talented WRs. Elijah Sarratt, Charlie Becker, Omar Cooper, etc. You’ve got the guys to beat man, zone, come out of the backfield, turn a 5 yard gain into a 70 yard TD — get it in their hands. Lastly, use those legs. We’ve seen a little bit of this recently, but evade pressure and don’t be afraid to tuck it and pick up 4-5 yards instead of forcing a throw. These Oregon DBs, specifically freshman corner Brandon Finney and safety Dillon Thieneman have been tackling and turnover machines. They want you to force a tight throw and test them, don’t do it. Defensively, you aren’t Texas Tech and that LB core, but you’re damn good. Last time out you held Oregon to 81 rush yards and 185 pass yards, do it again (easy, right?). You’re without DL Stephan Daley (FBS leader in TFLs), and that hurts, but this pair of LBs leads the team in sacks for a reason. Be aggressive, don’t let Moore stand tall in the pocket and pick you apart, and force mistakes, like you’ve done all year.

Verdict: I’m taking the Hoosiers -3.5 here. I simply cannot pick against Curt Cignetti. I’ve been burned a few too many times doing it, so he’s more than earned my respect this time around. I truly think Oregon can win this ball game, but I’m banking on Cignetti and this ball club that just plays the game the right way. The Indiana Hoosiers advance to the National Championship, wow, what a world we live in!

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⭐️ Peach Bowl Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza — o208.5 passing yards

🏅 Indiana WR Charlie Becker — o45.5 receiving yards

🏅 Indiana RB Roman Hemby — o61.5 rushing yards

🏅 Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt — o0.5 rush/receiving TD

🏅 Oregon QB Dante Moore — o20.5 pass completions

🏅 Oregon RB Dierre Hill — o40.5 rush yards (RB1/2 tonight)

🏅 Oregon TE Jamari Johnson — o27.5 receiving yards + o1.5 receptions

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#10 Miami v. #6 Ole Miss (MIA - 3 T: 52.5) 7:30pm on ESPN

Ahh yes, the Fiesta Bowl, the semi final game for the south side of the CFP bracket, a side featuring Ohio State and Georgia, with neither of those team being featured here. Ole Miss avenges their only loss of the season behind a Superman performance from Trinidad Chambliss, and Miami dominates Ohio State at the line of scrimmage, one game closer to a home National Championship appearance. This game is fascinating — On one hand you have a scorching hot offense led by the hottest QB in these playoffs, with a rushing attack that just gashed UGA, and on the other side you have the most physical fronts on either side of the ball in all of CFB. The matchup of Chambliss, OC Charlie Weis and RB Kewan Lacy vs. this front 7 of Miami with multiple 1st rounders will be absolute cinema.

Let’s break down these teams a bit, and see what makes them tick.

1. Ole Miss: We know by now the loss of Lane Kiffin was a net positive, because they just outcoached and frankly outplayed Georgia and Kirby Smart. A question I have to ask is, “How much of the success of Ole Miss and their offense in that UGA game was due to Trinidad magic?” The answer is about 87%, per my rock solid metrics that are never wrong. The other 13% was Kewan Lacy, and his ability to get to the edge and get up field, something he was unable to do in the first matchup this season. Trinidad put the cape on early, and didn’t take it off. His escapability, coverage recognition, decision making and accuracy were all on display in the Sugar Bowl, and he faces a Miami secondary that is also very beatable. We know about the Miami front with Mesidor and Bain, but outside of Keionte Scott, the secondary is their weakness. These talented Ole Miss WRs that don’t get the recognition they probably deserve can get open, and if Trinidad can escape and keep his eyes downfield, I foresee more explosive plays in this game. I imagine Miami will attempt to contain Chambliss in the pocket, and use 4 man stunts packages to disrupt the OL (similar to the TAMU gameplan). I think we see a lot of zone from Miami, as I mentioned these DBs may struggled in man, which should encourage Trinidad to use his legs to move the pocket and allow those WRs time to find a soft spot in the zones. If Ole Miss can keep up the Chambliss magic, and force this Miami offense into obvious passing situations (forcing Beck to beat them) then I think they can absolutely win this game.

2. Miami: Play your game, it’s that simple. You’ve made it this far on the backs of those massive earth movers up front, on both sides, so let them lead you to the promised land. You’ve got multiple 1st round picks in those units, lean on them. Stud RB Mark Fletcher has been your bell cow, and I imagine he’s licking his lips looking at this 65th ranked run defense. UGA RB Nate Frazier averaged over 6 yards per carry last week, and behind a better OL, I expect Fletcher to have similar success. That too (running the ball) plays heavily into what I imagine Miami’s game-plan will be: Run the ball, rule time of possession, keep Chambliss off the field. In this perfect game-plan I’ve crafted for the Hurricanes, you have a 150+ rushing performance from Fletcher, win the TOP 40:20 minutes, and Beck has a comfortable day in the pocket, going 22/28 215 yards and maybe a TD or two. I also expect freshman WR Malachi Toney to be heavily involved, finding success against this Ole Miss secondary. Defensively, use your monsters on the DL to get after Chambliss. First, stop Kewan Lacy. Plug holes, contain the edge, keep him a north and south runner. This puts Trinidad into 2nd/3rd and pass situations, and you can get after him. I’d also imagine they take star DB Keionte Scott and keep him in the box, spying Chambliss and also blitzing off the edge. He’s the secret weapon on this defense, and I’m interested to see the unique ways he is used to disrupt the Ole Miss offense.

Verdict: I’m taking the Hurricanes. I just think this OL will have their way, and keep Trinidad Chambliss off the field just enough to win. If we witness another Herculean effort from Chambliss and he puts on an absolute show, I would love that. He was electric to watch last week and it’d make for a hell of a game!

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⭐️ Fiesta Bowl Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 Miami WR Malachi Toney — o60.5 receiving yards

🏅 Miami RB Mark Fletcher — o95.5 rush yards (ladder to 150 yards) + o1.5 receptions

🏅 Ole Miss WR De’Zhaun Stribling — o52.5 receiving yards

🏅 Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss — o32.5 pass attempts + o265.5 pass yards

🏅 Ole Miss WR Cayden Lee — o3.5 receptions

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NEW YEARS DAY SPECIAL

#6 Ole Miss v. #3 Georgia (UGA - 6.5 T: 54.5) 8pm on ESPN

We end our quarterfinal weekend with a Sugar Bowl rematch from earlier this season, between the Lane Kiffin-less Ole Miss Rebels, and the Georgia Bulldogs. These teams met in mid October and it was an offensive showcase for both units. Ole Miss scored 35, scoring on all but 2 possessions, but Georgia scored 43, scoring on every single possession. Will this be another back and forth scoring bonanza (word of the day)? Let’s find out.

Georgia is your SEC Champion, after rectifying their only loss this season to Alabama, defeating the Tide 28-7 in Atlanta a few weeks ago. They earned themselves the 3rd seed in the playoff, and have been patiently awaiting their opponent, getting healthy. In a world where we’ve seen Indiana go undefeated, Ohio State boast the best defense in the country, and now Oregons upset of Texas Tech, all eyes have been on the B1G Ten and off the SEC. I think the Dawgs love that, they’re just quietly getting players back from injury (WR Colbie Young is one to note), and prepping for this game. They’ve also quietly had the best defense over the last 6 weeks of the season, holding opponents to 11 PPG over that span, and to just 7 points per game over the last 4 games. Meanwhile, the offense has come alive, scoring 41, 35, 35, and 28 in that span, against 3 SEC opponents and 1 ACC team. RB Nate Frazier has gained more and more confidence as a runner since his early season fumble woes, and QB Gunner Stockton has been clicking on the biggest stages all season. They’re a machine, but how will this new revived defense look against the 2nd best scoring offense in the country?

We know what’s been going on in Oxford the last month, and it’s been nothing short of a soap opera style story unfolding. Lane Kiffin toys with his own team, lies to the media regarding the LSU job and notifying his team, then takes the job, steals a majority of the staff from Ole Miss, and leaves them to pick up the pieces. Now, the Rebels still have the foundation that Lane built, specifically offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, who stayed with the team to call plays in Kiffins absence. Another member to note is QB Trinidad Chambliss. I think he’s the best QB left in this entire playoffs. The former D2 QB performed well in his first ever SEC road game when these teams met in October, throwing for 263 yards, rushing for 42, and totaling 3 TDs. All things considered, that’s pretty damn good. The threat of his rushing ability should keep UGAs LBs on edge, and allow him to drop seeds in some zone specific schemes (similar to the first game). The last thing to watch for the Rebs is RB Kewan Lacy. Lacy was banged up in the matchup against Tulane, but has been listed as “Probable” for tonight’s game and I imagine he’s 100% playing. Last time out, he was held to a career low 31 yards on 12 carries, but did score 2 TDs. How will Ole Miss and Weis exploit the aggressive nature of this UGA defense? Will they be able to have the same success?

Alright, the winning scenarios —

1. Ole Miss: Empty the clip. Whatever wacky play calls or trick plays you have in the playbook must come out. With the speed and aggressiveness this Dawgs defense has been playing with the second half of the season, you have to keep them on their toes and hit home runs on explosive plays. Trinidad Chambliss has to be a threat on the ground just as much as he is through the air, and I think he can truly be a difference maker that way. Defensively, you’re buns. You’re 68th in rush yards allowed, 31st in pass yards allowed and 45th in 3rd down conversion %. Unfortunately, those numbers aren’t gonna get it done. Stockton beat you on the ground and through the air last time, so you’re only hope here tonight is to force UGA to be 1 dimensional.

2. Georgia: Run. The. Damn. Ball. The Dawgs ran for 221 and threw for 290 last time these teams met, having their way. Just do that again. Lean on Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens in the run game, and it’ll open opportunities downfield to your massive TE’s. If that doesn’t work, you have one of the most electric playmakers in the country on your team, Zachariah Branch. Just throw him a score and let the young man GO. Defensively, you MUST get pressure on Chambliss. He wasn’t sacked at all in the earlier matchup and that has to change. Stop the run, get to Chambliss, and force him into uncomfortable throwing situations.

Verdict: I’m having a hard time seeing this going any other way than a Dawgs win. I’m taking them with the -6.5. I see a 38-21 or 38-28 type of game. Georgia’s defense makes a few key stops, maybe even a turnover or two, and Stockton and this offense take care of business.

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⭐️ New Years Day Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 Georgia WR Zachariah Branch — o60.5 receiving yards

🏅 Georgia RB Nate Frazier — o67.5 rush yards + ladder to 100 yards

🏅 Georgia QB Gunner Stockton — o2.5 Total TDs

🏅 Georgia RB Chauncey Bowens — o28.5 rush yards (welcome back)

🏅 Ole Miss WR Deuce Alexander — o38.5 receiving yards + o2.5 receptions

🏅 Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss — o32.5 pass attempts

🏅 Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy — u69.5 rush yards

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NEW YEARS DAY SPECIAL

#9 Alabama v. #1 Indiana (IND - 7.5 T: 46.5) 4pm on ESPN

Our beautiful baby, the Rose Bowl, brings together two programs who couldn’t be more diametrically opposed. Historically (and statistically), Indiana is the worst football program in the entire FBS, with years of sustained defeat, while Alabama is the most successful and acclaimed program of the last 3 decades. Now, just two years under the guidance and direction of head coach Curt Cignetti, and this Indiana team is undefeated, the #1 seed, and favored against Alabama. Wow.

Indiana has had their moment in the sun this year — QB Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy, Maxwell, Walter Camp and Davey O’Brien awards, HC Curt Cignetti won Coach of the Year, and this defense ranks top 3 in PPG, total yards, and rushing yards. They’ve absolutely earned the #1 seed in this Playoff, and now get to step on center stage of the Rose Bowl against the Goliath of the sport.

So, what’s up with these teams?

1. Indiana: The bad first — they’re missing DL Stephen Daley, the FBS leader in tackles for loss, after he suffered a season ending knee injury celebrating the B1G Ten Championship. The good news — Indiana still has linebackers Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones, their top 2 in sacks this year. They’ll have to fly around and continue to be a threat in the pass rush game for the Hoosiers. For the Hoos’ on offense, run the ball. Lean on Roman Hemby, Kaleon Black and this top 10 rushing attack to open up the RPO plays and give Mendoza plenty to work with. Defensively, continue to throw zone blitzes at Simpson, try to confuse him with simulated pressures and coverage rotations, and make the sacks count.

2. Alabama: You can win this game, and getting DT LT Overton back is enormous. He’s the best run stopper and pass rusher combo player you have, and you’ll need him to stop this potent Indiana rushing attack. In the backend, win the 1on1. Don’t let WRs Elijah Sarratt and Charlie Becker find the soft spots in the zone, or beat you down the field for explosive plays. Keep this Indiana team in front of you, put Mendoza in obvious pass downs, and try to disrupt him. In his matchups with Oregon, Penn state and Ohio State, he has 4 TDs and 3 INTs. Offensively, you won’t be able to run the ball, because you haven’t been able to all year, but try. Be creative in your play calling, use Germie Bernard on the perimeter, screens, trick plays, anything. Give Ty Simpson some time to layer the ball downfield to these electric playmakers. Bama has speed, and if you give Simpson time, he can beat you.

Verdict: I’m still not sure who to pick here. As it stands right now (assuming Oregon hangs on), I’m 2-0, so that means I’m statistically due to regress down to the mean and lose on this pick. So maybe fade me I guess? Idk, dealers choice. I’m gonna take Alabama +7.5 because it’s Alabama, it’s the Rose Bowl, and it’s ALABAMA. I hope Indiana can get it done, I really do, but my money is on the Tide to keep this close.

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⭐️ New Years Day Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 Alabama WR Germie Bernard — o4.5 receptions

🏅 Alabama TE Josh Cuevas — o3.5 receptions

🏅 Alabama WR Isiah Horton — o38.5 receiving yards

🏅 Indiana WR Omar Cooper — o50.5 receiving yards

🏅 Indiana RB Kaelon Black — o54.5 rush yards

🏅 Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza — o17.5 rush yards (sneaky line)

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NEW YEARS DAY SPECIAL

#5 Oregon v. #4 Texas Tech (ORE - 2.5 T: 51.5) NOON on ESPN

Your Capital One Orange Bowl brings the Big 12 champion to town as a higher seeded underdog against the Oregon Ducks. The fightin’ Dan Lannings took down American sweetheart James Madison in the opening round 51-34, which at one point was 48-13. Texas Tech beat BYU for the second time this season in the Big 12 Championship game (34-7), and have been patiently awaiting the Ducks with weeks to prepare. So, what to expect —

While we do have two top 10 scoring offenses (TTU #2 in PPG & 4th in YPG, Oregon 9th in PPG & YPG) meeting in this one, the story is all about this Red Raiders defense (2nd in YPG allowed) against Dante Moore and this high powered Oregon offense. Oregons defense may not get the recognition that Texas Techs has gotten, but they’re no slouch either, ranking in the Top 10 in pass yards, PPG and total yards allowed per game. TTU leads nation in takeaways, had the FBS leader in sacks this year (David Bailey — 13.5), and is 1st in rush YPG with 68. In order to stop this potent Oregon offense, you have to confuse Dante Moore. Going back to the Indiana game, they threw multiple shell looks at Moore, rotating in and out of coverages at the snap, and generated pressure via their LBs. 3.5 of their 6 sacks of Dante Moore came from their linebackers, which is a great stat for possibly the best group of LBs in the country in Texas Techs crew.

For Oregon, they are explosive as anyone on offense. They are finally getting healthy at the WR position, returning true freshman and former #1 overall 5 ⭐️ WR Dakorien Moore, along with a stable of RBs — Noah Whittington (6.9 YPC), Jordon Davison (6.4 YPC) and freshman Dierre Hill (8.6 YPC). These backs lead the 13th best rush offense in the country, and they’ll have to be perfect today to help Dante Moore create explosives. Another name to mention here is the future first round draft pick at TE, Kenyon Sadiq, one of the best pure receiving TE’s I’ve watched in a while. With Texas Tech running a lot of base 3 LB sets, that means one of them has to cover this monster. He’s a matchup nightmare at 6’4 245, runs a 4.5 40 and has all the athleticism and playmaking ability of a true X WR. Will Jacob Rodriguez and Co. be able to match him 1on1? I’m not sure.

So, how do these teams win? Glad you asked.

1. Texas Tech: lean into your strength, defense. Take away the run from Oregon, pressure Dante Moore, and be suffocating and relentless with pursuit and tackling. Take away Oregons identity as a rushing team and use your elite pass rushers to win. Offensively, take what the defense gives you. I’m a little worried about their QB, Behren Morton, as he’s the weak link on this great team, but if you just control what you can and move the ball via stud RB Cam Dickey on the ground and then limit turnover worthy plays, you win.

2. Oregon: you have to run the ball. Indiana has one of if not the best rush defense in the country and RB Noah Whittington averaged over 7 yards per carry (YPC). Oregon fell behind and moved away from the run game, and I think that’s was a mistake. Lean on the rushing attack to open up throwing lanes for Moore, let him get comfortable and do what he does best, be surgical with and decisive down field. The explosives will come naturally if you have a balanced offensive attack. Defensively, you’ve gotta pressure Morton. Like I said, he’s the weak link, and if you make him uncomfortable and force him into passing downs, I think he may make a mistake or two.

Verdict: I’m taking the Ducks. This one is really really tough for me, but I’m gonna trust Dan Lanning and his preparation, and I’m taking the QB I trust more in this matchup. We should be in store for another great game, and I have no dawg in the fight so I’m just pumped for sit on my ass and watch.

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⭐️ New Years Day Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 Oregon RB Noah Whittington — o59.5 rushing yards

🏅 Oregon RB Jordon Davison — o36.5 rushing yards

🏅 Oregon TE Kenyon Sadie — o3.5 receptions

🏅 Oregon QB Dante Moore — o238.5 pass yards + o29 pass attempts

🏅 Texas Tech RB Cam Dickey — o1.5 receptions

🏅 Texas Tech QB Behren Morton — o31.5 pass attempts

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NEW YEARS EVE SPECIAL

#10 Miami v. #2 Ohio State (OSU -9.5 T: 41.5) Friday — 7:30pm on ESPN

Live from Arlington, Texas at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, for our first of the 4 second round matchups between Miami and Ohio State. Ohio State earned their bye, and watched Miami travel to Kyle Field and run all over the Aggies in a windy windy game that included 4 (!) missed FGs. Luckily, were domed up for this matchup, so it’ll be strength on strength.

For Miami, when they faced off against Texas A&M, it was all run game. RB Mark Fletcher had a career high in rushing yards (172) on just 17 carries. When the Hurricanes needed a big play, they just turned around and handed it to big #4. At 6’2 225, Fletcher is a unit to bring down, and with all of Miami’s size up front, they were able to give him plenty of gaps to run through. An overlooked mismatch in the A&M v. Miami game was the strength and size of the Miami OL against the undersized nature of TAMU’s front. We know how great their pass rush is, but the run defense ranked 40th nationally, and clearly it was exploited all game.

QB Carson Beck wasn’t asked to do much of anything in that matchup, literally just think he was told “Don’t lose us this game asshole”, and he heeded those words, Completing 14 of his 20 pass attempts for 103 yards and the lone touchdown of the game to Malachi Toney. He will have to be better, as Ohio State is 5th nationally in rushing yards allowed (84 YPG), so Beck will have to shoulder more of the burden this game.

So what kind of game is this gonna be? I see two possibilities —

1. Ohio State stacks the box and leans on that 5th ranked run defense, forcing the game into Beck’s hands. He likely throws an errant INT (or 2), giving OSU a short fields and + possessions. If you give Sayin and this offense a short field, they will turn it into points, and the last thing you want against the Buckeyes is get behind and play catch up. With this defense, they will pin your ears back and force you to be one dimensional. In this scenario, Ohio State wins and covers.

2. Okay, scenario #2 — Miami follows the Indiana game script, and uses its very large and very athletic dudes in the OL & DL sides of the ball to win the trenches. As impressive as Miami was up front against the Aggies, I think they may be able to impose their will in the same way against OSU. Now, don’t get it twisted, Ohio State absolutely has dudes up front — DE Caden Curry leads OSU in sacks with 11 — and has two of the best LBs in the sport (shoutout Arvell Reese and Sonny Stiles). Indiana was able to run the ball on the Buckeyes, and gave Mendoza quick/easy layered throws in the play action game as well as avoiding 3rd and long situations. If Miami can lean on RB Mark Fletcher and give Carson Beck some manageable 2nd and 3rd downs, I think they can easily keep this close.

Verdict: Alright, time to nut up. I hate to find myself in a spot where I am positioned to bet on Carson Beck again, so let’s take another angle. We saw what physical, large human beings are capable of doing against this OSU team, and I think Miami has those freaks up front to do it. They know they have to run the ball to have success, and I think Ohio State wants to do the same thing with true freshman RB Bo Jackson. We obviously know all about WRs Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith, and they’ll be threats, but I think this is a slow nasty game won in the trenches. For that reason, I think it’s low scoring, so give me the under 41.5. For those tricksters and teasers out there looking for something a little juicier, I love a double hedge here with taking a teased under at/around 48.5 and moving the Miami spread to -16.5 (7 point Tease). I think this one stays close.

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⭐️ NYE Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith — o25.5 longest reception

🏅 Miami WR Malachi Toney — o6.5 receptions

🏅 Ohio State RB Bo Jackson — o1.5 receptions

🏅 Miami QB Carson Beck — o27.5 pass attempts

🏅 Ohio State WR Carnell Tate — o0.5 rush/receiving TDs

🏅 Miami RB Mark Fletcher — o1.5 receptions

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We’ve got an abbreviate newsletter for you today, with NFL Picks and Props for our Christmas Day Special! Feel free to share all my objective and correct takes with each and every one of your family members this Holiday season 🎄

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Welcome to the Weekly Deuce, a sports newsletter by me, Drew, a sports junkie. This newsletter is free, but consider becoming a paying subscriber to support the work that I’m doing so I can continue to do it! I appreciate all of you 🫡

NFL Christmas 🔑 Games

Cowboys (-7.5) @ Commanders T 50.5

Well this game certainly would be more fun had it been featuring Jayden Daniels vs. Dak Prescott, but with the injury to Daniels and now the injury to backup Marcus Mariota (listed as questionable), we get Dak vs. 39 year old Josh Johnson. Johnson stepped in last week against the Eagles and only threw 9 passes, including one pretty ugly interception, but he faces off against the leagues worst pass defense (258 YPG) and 31st ranked scoring defense, so anything can happen.

Both of these teams have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, despite the Cowboys posting a 4,000 yard passer, 1,000 yard rusher and 2 1,000 yard receivers. Kinda wild if you ask me, but when you have the worst defense in the league (statistically), you end up in this weird predicament. I think HC Brian Shottenheimer is the right guy, but you’ve gotta fire Matt Eberflus immediately. What he’s done to this defense is nothing short of football malpractice. For the Commanders, it’s just been a year from hell, not much you can do. After making an NFC Championship game appearance as a rookie, your star QB battles injuries all year and doesn’t look nearly like he did a year ago. The good news is you are going to get a Top 5 pick in a loaded draft, so that’s fun!

For this game, I’m gonna take the Cowboys -7.5. I think they’re a really really good offense with a really really bad defense, but luckily they’re facing a bad commanders offense that I don’t think can keep up. George Pickens also loves playing on Christmas, and had a career day two years ago (4 receptions 195 yards 2 TDs), so keep your eyes on him tomorrow.

Lions @ Vikings

Another game with a backup QB here, as Max Brosmer will get the start. JJ McCarthy seems to be injured again, nursing a hairline fracture on his hand, so unfortunately we won’t be able to bet on him to throw another interception this week (sad). The wind has also been taken out of the Lions sails recently as they have just a 6% chance of making the playoffs now. Here’s a little breakdown of what they need in order to squeak into the ‘Yoffs:

So, while it may be very slight, it’s not impossible. I for one would love to have the Lions in the playoffs, but I think the NFC playoffs are going to be cinema regardless.

For this game, there are a few things to consider here. The last time they met, Vikings DC Brian Flores completely shut down the run, keeping Jahmyr Gibbs to just 28 total yards (season low), David Montgomery to just 40 yards (forced a fumble as well), and sacked Jared Goff 5 times. I think they’ll try to do the same thing, and limit the explosives from Gibbs and Jameson Williams. This is a similar spot to the one above, with a backup QB playing against a bottom 5 defense, so I’m on the Lions for obvious reasons. It’s a must-win game, and as much as I hate the -7.5 number, I think the fighting Dan Campbells get it done.

Broncos @ Chiefs

Our night game, yuck. Boseph Nix against South Dakota State legend Chris Oladokun — this is shaping up to be a beauty!

After the disaster of Patrick Mahomes tearing his ACL just two weeks ago, backup QB Gardner Minshew started in his place and suffered the same fate agains the Titans last weekend. That brings in Chris Oladokun, the 28 year old QB who had collegiate stops at USF, Samford and SDSU. He led the JackRabbits to the FCS semi finals with an 11-4 record, 3,200 pass yards and 27 total TDs. He makes his first start tomorrow night against the 4th best overall defense in the league, holding teams to just 90 rush YPG (2nd) and 33% on 3rd down (1st).

So, how’s this gonna go? Well, I may be more trusting in Andy Reid than most, so I think it’ll actually be okay all things considered. You give Andy Reid and Matt Nagy time to prep for anyone, and I think they can take any QB and put together a half decent offense, at worst it’s gonna be better than the bottom half of the leagues struggling offenses. Plus, this is a divisional game, and I know the Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs already, but that doesn’t mean they can’t ruin the Broncos chances at the #1 seed. I think they keep this closer than the -13.5 point spread indicates. We’ve seen some F-word behavior from the Broncos recently (fraudulent), and they feel a lot like the Vikings team from a year ago. Fun fact — the 12-3 Denver Broncos have beaten the same amount of teams above .500 (3) as the 6-9 Miami Dolphins, so are they a product of an easy schedule? Who’s to say (me, they’re frauds) but I have faith in KC to keep this one interesting.

CFB Christmas 🎄

Hawaii Bowl

California (-1.5) vs. Hawaii o51.5 — 8pm on ESPN

Merry Christmas everyone! We have ourselves the 1st gift of Christmas, this Bowl Game. In the true name and history of the Hawaii Bowl, we have two Hawaii born QBs facing off here. Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (nailed it, totally didn’t have to google the spelling) is from Ewa Beach, played himself into 5 star status, and as a freshman he totaled 3100 yards, 20 TDs and 9 INTs. He recently announced he is “resigning” and returning to Cal next year amid rumors of a possible transfer. On the other side, is redshirt freshman QB Micah Alejado, the Honolulu born QB played high school is Las Vegas for powerhouse Bishop Gorman before returning back to his home state to play for Hawaii. Alejado has averaged 285 YPG, tallying 22 TDs as well.

• So, the big game. Some things to note — Hawaii star WR Jackson Harris has announced his intent to enter the Transfer Portal, likely taking advantage of his superb breakout year (lead the team with 19.7 YPC, 12 TDs, 963 yards). This will hurt Hawaii’s chances, but they have Pofele Ashlock and Brandon White to help fill that production void. On the Cal side, they have a few starters listed as questionable, but overall it’ll be the same squad we’ve seen all year. With both defenses ranking outside the top 60 nationally, I think we see points, and a lot of em. For that reason, I’m taking the over 51.5, and will sprinkle on some additional player props (see below)

• QB JKS — o275.5 pass yards 🎁

• QB Micah Alejado — o270 pass yards 🎁

• WR Pofele Ashlock — o5.5 receptions 🌲

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⭐️ NFL Christmas Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 Cowboys WR George Pickens — o4.5 receptions + o78.5 rec yards + 0.5 rush/receiving TD

🏅 Patriots WR Stefon Diggs — o3.5 receptions

🏅 Commanders WR Deebo Samuel — 44.5 receiving yards & o2.5 receptions

🏅 Commanders QB Josh Johnson — o184.5 pass yards

🏅 Vikings WR Justin Jefferson — o4.5 receptions + 59.5 rec yards

🏅 Chiefs QB Chris Oladokun — o28.5 pass attempts

🏅 Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs — o5.5 receiving targets

🏅 Broncos QB Bo Nix — o12.5 rush yards

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Round 1

#9 Alabama @ #8 Oklahoma (BAMA -1.5 T: 40.5) Friday — 8pm on ABC

Like I said last week, this committee is ADDICTED to giving us rematches, hell, we have 2 of them right away in the 1st round. Would I have preferred they manipulate the seeding a bit to get better and NEWER matchups? Yes, yes I would have, and you best believe I‘Ve written the College Football Playoff “Committee” a strongly worded letter expressing such thoughts.

Alright, now that that’s out of the way, let’s check the pulse of this game.

What we know:

• 1) Oklahoma won this matchup just over a month ago in Tuscaloosa, in a gross game where we have a few important stats to go over. The first paper popper stat is Alabama outgained Oklahoma in this matchup 406 to 212, and won the time of possession battle 34:28 to 25:32. That leads us ever so nicely into the 2nd paper popper — Oklahoma forced 3 turnovers while only giving away 1, and sacked Simpson 4 times, while pressuring him 11 times.

• 2) Alabama has been very banged up and injury ridden the last few weeks, but is expecting to return multiple key starters. TE Josh Cuevas is among them, Simpson’s safety valve who is 3rd on the team in TDs and 4th in targets, and a huge part of the Alabama run game with his elite blocking skills. DT L.T. Overton is another name to watch, as has been battling an illness, but wasn’t spotted at practice earlier this week. Lastly there is RB Jam Miller, who is making “good progress” and will like be listed as “Probable” headed into the matchup Friday.

What we don’t know:

• How will Alabama’s offense look? We saw them outperform this Sooner team last time out, but were careless with the ball and ended up coughing it up too often. They’re coming off the SEC Championship game where they held to just 7 points, 3-14 on 3rd down, and -3 rushing yards. The run game is a big problem, and Ty Simpson has the potential to play himself into a high draft pick… or solidify his return to Bama for another year of development.

• Is John Mateer finally healthy, like 100%? If so, I really like what his legs can offer against this Bama defense that will likely be without LT Overton, the strength of their front 7 and pass rush. No need to sugarcoat it, Mateer has been playing like ass since coming back from the thumb injury, and we know the Sooners can’t run the game, so will he be reliant on his defense to win him another game, or will he step up and take the moment himself?

Verdict: Two teams who struggle to run the ball, and frankly struggle to score against good defenses (which both of these units are Top 10 in defensive EPA margin) rematch in Norman at night. We can look at the advanced stats all we want, but I don’t think it’ll give me a feel on this game. This could go either way, but I’m not in the business of fence riding, so give me the Sooners to win their 3rd game against the Tide in less than a year, behind the support of a rowdy home playoff crowd.

#10 Miami @ #7 Texas A&M (TAMU - 3.5 T: 48.5) NOON on ABC

Once again, the numbers believe the wrong team is favored here. My guy Parker Fleming who is the brain behind these beautiful graphs you see (@statsowar on X), spends a lot of time creating these advanced stats graphics, but like my one legged senile pee-wee football coach use to say, “The game ain’t played on paper, it’s played on grade A, fresh cut and painted Bermuda grass.” Ole Man Lt. Dan makes a hell of a point, the numbers can tell us one story, but the results on the field tell another.

What we have here is a true battle in the trenches — Miami may have the best combined OL & DL units in the country, ranking 6th in PPG and 7th in Rush YPG allowed, and keeping QB Carson Beck protected all year, allowing only 9 sacks all season. The O-Line is led by future Top 10 NFL Draft pick, Francis Mauigoa, but he and that unit will have their hands full on Saturday, facing the best pass rushing unit in the country. Daylon Hayes (16.6%) and Cashius Howell (17.2%) both rank Top 10 in pressure rate generated, and as a team, the Aggies rank 1st in the FBS with a sack rate of 10.44%. If that isn’t enough for you, don’t even try on 3rd down, because that defense also leads the country in opponent 3rd down success rate, at 24%. So, how does this factor in? I’m so glad you asked, let me break it down for you below.

It’s pretty simple, in the two games Miami loss this year (SMU and Louisville), it was all on QB Carson Beck. I truly thought he was pressured super heavily and sacked a few times, rattling him and likely forcing some of those errant throws turned interceptions (6 INTs btw), but after further review, Miami gave up ZERO sacks in those two games. So, what was it? Well, a few things. First, both Louisville and SMU emptied the clip offensively, dialing up trick plays, fake FGs, etc., which seems like a no brainer when playing a high ranked opponent but not everyone has the balls to do it. Second, the weakness of this great Miami defense is the secondary. If you have WRs who can be target monsters and deep threats (which A&M has), you can spread them out and pick through the zones they create. 3rd, Carson Beck. Like I said a second ago, Beck turned the ball over 6 times in those two games, and when he has the INT bug, they come in pairs of 2 most of the time.

That leads me into a few closing thoughts, including my 🔑’s to the game for each team —

For the Aggies: Get to Beck, pressure him, sack him, make him as uncomfortable as possible. He’s very experienced, but lean on the home crowd and be aggressive, and I think you see another 2+ INT day if you can do that. Offensively, get the ball to your playmakers. WR’s KC Conception and Mario Craver have been nightmares for defenses all year, and you have to force feed them. Give Marcel Reed some easy reps to get him going, spread the field and attack these defensive backs. Lastly, run the ball, or at least try. Be creative and use Reed in the run game with QB designed runs, trickery, etc. Keep them guessing and avoid 3rd and long.

For the Canes: Dominate time of possession. I don’t think you want to get in a track race with this A&M team. Do what you’ve done the last few weeks of the season, lean on your defensive front 7 to get stops, then run the clock and methodically move the ball. A&M has been susceptible to explosive plays this season, so protect Beck, move the rock, and take shots when you can. Limit turnover worthy plays from Beck by letting him do what he does best — diagnose at the line of scrimmage and make quick 1 read progressions to move and attack the soft spots. If you let these A&M pass rushers pin their ears back, it’ll be a long game.

Verdict: This is another one that could honestly go either way, and per usual, it’s very very dependent on which versions of these 2 QBs we see Saturday. I don’t think Miami has faced a defense like this all season, and I expect them to struggle a bit, allowing for A&M to take a lead early. Can Carson Beck come from behind in a hostile stadium with 100k screaming fans? I’m not sure, but I am not betting my hard earned American currency on him to become Joe Burrow in that moment, so I’m on the Aggies to win at home in a close one.

#11 Tulane @ #6 Ole Miss (MISS - 17.5 T: 57.5) 3:30pm on TNT

First things first — this game is on TNT. Keep that in mind when you’re pissed off because you can’t find this game on ESPN. This is all because of Mickey Mouse and his erratic and narcissistic behavior. Specifically his darling company, Disney and their bastard child ESPN doing whatever the hell they want now. Those fuckers sold the rights to these 1st round playoff games (the other one is Oregon v. JMU), and honestly I think it’s hilarious that it ended up being two 3 score spread games against G5 opponents. Will the ratings tank? Probably not, because most football addicted individuals like you and me would watch Mercer play Ole Miss on Freeform at 8am if we had to. Regardless, this is your friendly reminder that this game is on TNT, not ESPN or ABC or CBS or FOX or anything else.

Oof, sorry folks I got a little carried away there for a second, but I think it needed to be said. I’ve had a bad taste in my mouth ever since the whole Disney and YouTube TV fiasco earlier this season, so I apologize for my crass language there. At least you can be sure that non of the nonsensical bullshit I spew in these newsletters is AI generated, right? Even though I love to use an em dash and apparently that’s a huge flag for AI writing? Whatever, AI can kiss my ass.

Alright, we’ve got a game to preview now I think. Is this Oregon and JMU? Let me check my notes hold on.

Okay after further review this is actually the Ole Miss and Tulane preview. Two schools losing their Head Coach to SEC schools, yet handling it two completely different ways. On one hand, you have Tulane HC Jon Sumrall who is actively donating to Tulane’s NIL collective while he is also recruiting portal players and assembling a staff at Florida (very cool and admirable of him by the way). Conversely, you have Lane Kiffin, who pretty much took a piss all over the Ole Miss program and then proceeded to blame it all on the “system” and timing of the transfer portal, CFP playoffs and coaching carousel simultaneously. Honestly, nobody knows how to go out in a Michael Bay fireball explosion like style more than Kiffin, so I guess that’s cool for him.

So, the BIG game. Some things to note: Ole Miss has promoted DC Pete Golding to interim and active Head Coach moving forward, and Lane Kiffin has been so so gracious (he’s such a good guy!) allowed for OC Charlie Weis to return to coach the offense and call plays through the duration of Ole Miss’ playoff run, before promptly returning to Baton Rouge to assume the LSU OC job. These teams met in September and it was 45-10 Ole Miss. I think Tulane can put up a little bit of fight, but Ole Miss wins this game by 20. I know Lane is gone, but the talent is still there, the Rebels take care of business.

Verdict: Old Mississippi wins and covers.

#12 James Madison @ #5 Oregon (ORE - 21.5 T: 47.5) 7:30pm on TNT

I won’t waste your time with another rant, but I definitely could, just remember that.

Oregon is my sleeper team in this whole bracket, so clearly that means they’re moving on past JMU. I like the Dukes, truly I do, but this Oregon team is finally getting healthy (specifically the WR core) and they are playing pissed off football. I really like their path, with JMU at home in a warm up type of game, then neutral site against a Texas Tech team that is very very good defensively, but struggles at times offensively against good defenses. I think the Ducks are healthy, hungry and led by a psycho coked out Head Coach who is hungrier for a playoff win than most of his players.

Verdict: Oregon wins and covers the large -21.5 point spread. Give me a 42-17 game.

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⭐️ CFP Round1 Player Prop Plays ⭐️

As I mentioned above, the long arm of the corporate law hath taken my time, but do not fret. I will have a CFP Round 1 Player Prop Post going out likely later this afternoon. Hopefully sometime around 5pm, maybe earlier, so stay tuned for that.

Finally, here is the Weekly Deuces perfect bracket. Read it and weap! (I couldn’t fit it all in one image so sorry about that.

You can’t see it, but yes, I have Oregon vs. UGA in the National Championship game, and I have the Dawgs bringing it home. Kirby secures his 3rd title in 5 years 🐶

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Welcome to the Weekly Deuce, a sports newsletter by me, Drew, a sports junkie. This newsletter is free, but consider becoming a paying subscriber to support the work that I’m doing so I can continue to do it! I appreciate all of you 🫡

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No, not really, everyone pretty much has an opinion on this, and I am no different. However, I am smarter and cooler than all of those people so let me lay it down for you ⬇️

#1 Seed — Indiana Hoosiers

• This is an easy one, as they earned this fair and square with their 13-10 defeat of Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game on Saturday. QB Fernando Mendoza has won the hearts of America with his post game presser shenanigans, showcasing his goober tendencies wrapped in a heartfelt, authentic 90 second interview. If you haven’t seen it, do yourself a favor and check it out. Anyway, the Hoosiers are legit man. They held this high powered Buckeye offense to just 58 rushing yards and 4-12 on 3rd down. Cignetti and company have this squad playing inspired football, playing with some real fire. The defense flying around, led by D’Angelo Ponds on the outside and Tyrique Tucker on the inside. They are super complete on both sides of the ball, and have earned themselves the top seed in the CFP.

#2 Seed — Ohio State Buckeyes

• This could’ve been UGA or OSU to be perfectly honest with you but I like the decision to put the Buckeyes here over the Dawgs. Despite the loss to Indiana, we know what this team is made of, and what they’re capable of doing. Just last year we saw how they responded to that Michigan loss, by ripping off 5 straight wins and becoming the National Champs. Do we see another hot streak from this OSU team? I think it’s very possible. Just as Mendoza will be in New York for the Heisman ceremony, so will Ohio State QB Julian Sayin. Sayin played pretty well in the loss to Indiana, despite one INT, and I think if these teams see each other again down the road, we’ll be in for another classic.

#3 Seed — Georgia Bulldogs

• As I mentioned above, I’d be fine with the Bulldawgs at 2 or 3. If you live under a rock or are boycotting ESPN/ABC (respect if you are), allow me to get you up to speed on the SEC Championship game from last weekend: Georgia hogtied Alabama to a railroad track, filled an old sock with a bunch of nickels, and proceeded to beat them mercilessly until a Red and Black colored train came down the tracks to put them out of their misery. A 28-7 beat down took place in Atlanta, and though it may have been IN the Mercedes-Benz dome, it was not the Falcons that lost for once (I know surprising). A lot of discourse has been going around about Bama staying at the 9 seed, or even staying in the playoff altogether, and that’s all good and well, but this is the Georgia segment, so we’ll get to that later. Anyway, the Dawgs look frightening right now, and I would not want to play them. The defense looks like one of, if not the best unit in all of CFB right now, and the offense continues to get healthy. Watch out for the Dawgs

#4 Seed — Texas Tech Red Raiders

• The Red Raiders took care of business on Saturday, as expected, handling BYU 34-7. Part of me feels for the Cougars, being 11-1 in the regular season and then losing again to the same team, then missing the CFP altogether, tough. Credit to the Red Raiders though, as they dominated this game. That defense is suffocating, led by Butkus award winner Jacob Rodriguez (robbed of a trip to NY for the Heisman ceremony) and edge rusher David Bailey (led the FBS in sacks this year). I think this squad is capable of making a run, but I worry about their offense a bit. If they come up against a team with equal athleticism and coaching to match their own, I worry about their lack of experience in the moment and that their offense may stall out. Either way, the Red Raiders are dangerous and a team to keep your eyes on.

#5 Seed — Oregon Ducks

• Keep your eyes peeled for the Ducks here. A lot of people have forgotten about them with all of the Indiana and Ohio State conversations going on, and I suppose that’s fair, but this Ducks squad is one of the most dangerous teams in the country. Since the loss to Indiana, Oregon has held teams to 14 PPG, averaging 30 PPG, and has forced 11 turnovers in the 6 games span. The combination of HC Dan Lanning and QB Dante Moore is enough for me to believe they can make a run, but then you add all of the players they’re getting back from injury, including multiple starting WR’s, starting OL and a few defensive pieces as well, and they can easily make a run.

#6 Seed — Ole Miss Rebels

• The recently divorced Ole Miss Rebels come in as the 6th seed, and I think this makes sense. I’ve seen some arguments for Texas A&M being here, and for matchup purposes that totally makes sense, but unfortunately they are #7 and we will get Tulane @ Ole Miss part 2. With Lane Kiffin skipping town and becoming the new LSU head coach, Ole Miss was left to pick up the pieces. Lane was so kind to allow OC Charlie Weis to coach through the playoffs for the Rebels, assisting former DC and HC Pete Golding as he looks to make a run. The real question here is will the Ole Miss offense miss a beat without Kiffin? I tend to think so, even with Weis returning to run things. QB Trinidad Chambliss has been playing at a high level all season, and RB Kewan Lacy is one of the best in the country, so I think they handle Tulane and have a rematch of their own against the Dawgs.

#7 seed — Texas A&M Aggies

• The 11-1 Aggies are your 7th seed, and as I mentioned above, it really could be switched with Ole Miss in my opinion, especially since the matchup is Tulane and we could’ve easily avoided the 1st round rematch but I digress. Instead, the Aggies will play host to the lone ACC representative, Miami. If I had a gun to your head and said “Give me your best guess for what time this game will be played, Noon, 3:30 or 7:30?”, you (like most normal people) would assume this would be the 7:30 prime time kick, right? Well, you’d be a big old dumbass (just like me), because this is the noon game. If you ask me, that is an utter travesty and true waste of an opportunity to have a playoff game, at night, at Kyle Field in front of 100k fans. Whatever though, thank TNT for buying the rights to broadcast that game. The Aggies are a complete team, with a ton of talented players on both sides of the ball, but are vulnerable. The Miami front is about as good as it gets, and if Carson Beck has time, I think he can pick apart this secondary. If the Aggies can put it together, they will have Ohio State waiting for them in the 2nd round.

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#8 seed — Oklahoma Sooners

• The 6th seed in the SEC comes in as our 8 seed in the playoffs, thanks to their wins down the stretch. The 10-2 Sooners rattled off 4 straight wins over Tennessee, Alabama, Mizzou and LSU, pretty dang impressive. We know the story with this team, the defense. This unit finished in the Top 10 in total yards allowed per game (273), rush YPG (81), PPG (13.9) and 3rd down % (28.8). The struggle for them has been the offense, and specifically in the area of consistency. QB John Mateer should be 100% headed into the rematch with Bama, after he suffered that thumb injury halfway through the season. He played with it for the last few games and did not look like himself, missing on some throws and looking uncomfortable. If Mateer can find that secret sauce he was playing with earlier in the season, ya know, when he was in the Heisman race, they can get past Bama and give Indiana a run for their money.

#9 seed — Alabama Crimson Tide

• The Crimson Tide were the only team to lose on conference championship weekend and not move back a single spot. Even Ohio State got pushed back a spot, from 1 to 2, but Bama remained at the 9 seed. Now, at first glance I can understand people getting pissed off about this, but let’s use our heads a bit. Was there ever a scenario where the CFP Committee was gonna leave Bama out? No. So, that means they only had one choice, moving them back to 10. They could have done this, and avoided the Oklahoma v. Bama rematch, but they couldn’t justify moving Miami all the up to 9 after being out of it the week prior. Anyway, Bama is in, and will have to face the Sooners in Norman. This is still Alabama, so don’t count them out, but with the way Ty Simpson is playing recently, I’m not too confident in their chances.

#10 seed — Miami Hurricanes

• The Hurricanes are IN and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are OUT. A few things can be true here — 1) Do I think the Committee made the right decision by putting Miami in? Yes. 2) Do I think the Committee completely mishandled this ND v. Miami ranking situation the last few weeks? Absolutely. 3) Do I think both Notre Dame and Miami should be in because they are among the 12 BEST teams? Yes, yes I do. Unfortunately for us and more specifically Notre Dame, that is not how the CFP works. It’s more like the 6-7 BEST teams, plus a few really GOOD teams, and then the group of 5 conference champions. Well, no need to sulk and opt out of our bowl games, instead let’s talk about this Miami team. They finished 3rd in the ACC at 10-2, with two losses coming against Louisville and SMU (both 8-4). In both losses, it was on the tattooed shoulders of transfer QB Carson Beck. Beck threw 6 total INTs in those games, and that was really all it took. He’s been playing better recently, but will face the best defense he’s seen all season in his 1st round matchup with the Aggies, so we will see if he proceeds to piss down his leg or not.

#11 seed — Tulane Green Wave

• The Green Wave are good. A lot of talk about 2 G5 teams getting into the playoffs and how that’s “ruining the sport”, and I disagree. As I mentioned above, this is not the “12 best teams in the country” bracket, so you’re gonna see opportunities for G5 teams who won their conference earn a spot. What I don’t love is the matchup manipulation that went on in the committee room, with Tulane matching up with Ole Miss, and Bama / Oklahoma meeting again. When Tulane traveled to Oxford in September, it was a whomping (45-10). Their head coach, Jon Sumrall, has since taken the head job at Florida, but unlike that snake Lane Kiffin, he is staying to coach his team through this playoff run (good guy). Will they make a run? Not sure, they definitely have a tough road to go down, and if there are able to upset the Rebels, they have Georgia waiting. This Tulane team is led by BYU transfer QB Jake Retzlaff (BYJew) and has had a pretty great year. He’s averaging 268 YPG, and has been a force on the ground this year with 16 rushing TDs. I worry about their defense (117th nationally in Pass YPG) against Trinidad Chambliss, but stranger things have happened!

#12 seed — James Madison Dukes

• Finally, we have our 12th seed JMU. The Duke have strung together another great year, and will also be losing their head coach to a P4 job (UCLA). HC Bob Chesney will be coaching them in their matchup against Oregon, and was quoted earlier this week saying, “There’s really zero chance I would be anywhere that didn’t allow you to finish a mission that you started, and to me, that would just break everything in my mind.” Chesney is a great coach, and I think his mind is truly on beating the Ducks. The Dukes one loss came at Louisville in week 2 of the season, a game where they held a lead at halftime (7-6). Their star QB Alonzo Barnett was hurt in that game and the Cardinals stormed back, but Barnett has been a stud all year. He is also a dual threat QB, with 14 rushing TDS on the ground and 21 through the air. They also have stud RB Wayne Knight toting the rock, averaging 120 YPG over his last 5 games. I’d love to see the Dukes give Oregon a run for their money, but I’m afraid this Ducks team is just on another level physically and athletically.

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🏅 Heisman🏅

Your Heisman finalists have been announced, as the four young men above have been invited to New York for the ceremony this Saturday. I have a lot of thoughts on this, but I’ll be brief.

I don’t think the best player in CFB is on this graphic, because I think the best player in football is in Columbus, Ohio, named Caleb Downs. If you watch ball, you know he’s been one of if not the most impactful player on either side of the ball the last two years, and I am fully motioning to rename the Heisman trophy to the “Most Popular Quarterback in the Country” Award. Another snub is Texas Tech LB and Butkus award winner Jacob Rodriguez, who was the highest rated player in the country this year, per PFF.

In all seriousness, I think it’s Fernando Mendoza’s award to lose at this point. A lot of people think it should be Vandy QB Diego Pavia, and thats cute, he had a good year and put up some fun garbage time numbers in blowout games, but I don’t think it was enough. Mendoza had a great year statistically, led his team to an undefeated season that has was capped off with a B1G Ten championship win.

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College Football — Championship Weekend 🏆

#11 BYU vs. #4 Texas Tech (TTU - 12.5 T: 49.5) Noon on ABC

Our first rematch of the day is Texas Tech and BYU in the battle for the Big 12. When these teams met in Lubbock a few weeks ago, it wasn’t particularly close. Texas Tech won 29-7, but that score doesn’t quite tell the full story. Here are some numbers for you — Texas Tech outgained BYU 368 to 255, forced 3 turnovers and did not cough any up, and won by 22 despite kicking 5 redzone field goals. They simply could not convert in the red area, yet comfortably won this game… that would scare me as a Mormon.

So, what’s the good news for the Cougs? Well, for starters, you locked down your Head Coach Kalani Sitake amidst rumors of him taking the Penn State job, so that’s pretty good. You also have the benefit of the old adage “It’s difficult to beat the same team twice in a row”, which Georgia fans are hoping is true too. Since the loss last month, BYU has reeled off 3 straight conference double digit point wins, and has found their sauce on offense a bit. With this being a semi-neutral site game in Arlington, TX, I think they will be playing with some fire. Will it be enough?

I’m afraid not unfortunately. I think Texas Tech is a bit of a machine — we know how talented that defense is, and the offense has been clicking since we last saw these two teams face off. I think the Red Raiders win and cover this large -12.5 spread, securing that Top 4 seed.

#3 Georgia vs #10 Alabama (UGA - 2.5 T: 48.5) 4pm on ABC

Our second rematch of the day is the Tide traveling to Atlanta to play UGA in another SEC championship game. Including this year, 10 of the last 11 SEC champs have been one of these two teams (shoutout 2019 Joe Burrow). We all know Kirby’s record against Bama as the UGA head coach (1-7), and how they have been the monkey he can‘t seem to get off his back. Will he and the Dawgs get over the hump? Vegas seems to think so, as the Dawgs are favored by -2.5, but if you pay attention to all the large money coming in on this game… it’s going in Bama’s direction.. heavily.

Two things can be true at the same time — 1) Georgia lost to Bama in September and 2) This is a very different Georgia team now. If you’re a UGA fan, you’d hope so, but for those who may be out of the loop, this Georgia defense has really turned a corner in the 2nd half of the season. Specifically their ability to rush the passer, as they’ve recorded 9 sacks over their last 4 games. They have also been winning the turnover battle, likely thanks to that front 7 pressure, and one quick glance at the initial injury report shows Bama missing both their starting TE’s and 2 offensive lineman. Not to mention their #1 running back Jam Miller is “Questionable” after suffering what looked like a very serious lower leg injury in last weeks win in Auburn. I doubt he plays, which means Daniel Hill will have to step up.

Looking at this game through a fans lens, I think it’ll be another classic. UGA has struggled recently in the pass game, but found structure and consistency in the run game behind a young but strong OL. They will be without starting center Drew Bobo, which is a huge loss, but Alabama will be without DL L.T. Overton (2nd in sacks), so that helps. For Bama, we kinda know what they are. A good team with tons of talent that cannot really run the ball, and when Simpson is under pressure he struggles a lot more than the national media would like to admit. I say this every time these two teams meet, but this is matchup won and lost on the line of scrimmage. Bama was a whopping 13/19 (8/8 to start the game) on 3rd down when these two teams played in September, and that simply cannot happen again if UGA wants to win this game.

🔑’s to the Game:

• Alabama — Ty Simpson will have to be lights out again. He has struggled recently, but if he plays up to his ability, they win this game. Trust the game plan, move the ball, and most importantly keep it off the turf.

• Georgia — Win on 3rd down. You saw the stat above, they have to force Bama to regress down to the mean. Pressure on Simpson is a must, otherwise he picks you apart. Gunner Stockton must use his legs to extend plays and drives, and Bobo has to empty the clip here. No more timid play calling, step on the gas early and often.

The Pick: I’ve been burned too often picking the Dawgs, and my heart tells me this game will be another knife fight. I foresee a 28-24 game (no clue who wins it), which means I like the over 48.5 points. So, I will cowardly stay away from either side here and just take the points.

#1 Ohio State vs #2 Indiana (OSU - 4.5 T: 47.5) 8pm on FOX

These two teams have been on a collision course for 3 months now, and we finally get to see who shows up. I know the advanced stats graphic above is a bit confusing (hell it took me a long time to even figure out what was going on), but you guys see all those low numbers and blue filled boxes? Yeah, that’s realllyyyyy good. That would be their rank in the FBS per metric, and as you can see, both of these teams rank at the very top on both sides of the ball. Let me give you the skinny of what that data is saying —

Offense: Indiana is 2nd in PPG (44.3), 1st in 3rd down %, 5th in total YPG and 9th in rushing YPG. Ohio State is 2nd in 3rd down %, 20th in pass YPG and 13th in PPG.

Defense: Indiana is 2nd in rush PYG and PPG (10.9), 4th in 3rd down %, and 4th in total YPG. Ohio State is 1st in total YPG, 1st in pass YPG, 1st in PPG (7.8!!) and 2nd in 3rd down %.

These two teams are absolute wagons, and this Ohio State defense is statistically one of the best in CFB history. They are physical on the line of scrimmage, get after the passer, and force turnovers. They’ve only allowed more than 10 points twice all season (16 to Illinois and 14 to Penn St.), but face the best offense they’ve seen all season by a considerable margin. So, what’re the keys?

So glad you asked, let’s look into it.

• Indiana — Lean on your strengths and trust your coaching. Cignetti has turned this program around in just 2 short years, and has this group playing some of the best football of anyone. QB Fernando Mendoza will be in a battle for the Heisman trophy award, as he and Julian Sayin are the two betting favorites at the moment. Mendoza must lean on the RB duo of Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby to affect the game enough on the ground to open things up for him through the air. His favorite target, WR Elijah Sarratt, is one of the best in the country, and will be a huge factor. If they can effectively move the ball on this OSU defense, I think it’s a very different ball game.

• Ohio State — Julian Sayin, this is your moment bud, go take it. The Junior QB is the former #1 QB recruit in the country just a few years ago, and has the best WR core in the country next to him. He has to make plays, period. We saw him struggle early against Michigan, but then settle in and light that defense up. WR Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate will be pivotal and heavily targeted, but I actually think it’ll be RB Bo Jackson (I know, no relation though) that is most important. The young man is coming off 3 100 yard performances in his last 4 games, and is hard to bring down. We know how great this defense is, so it’ll be the 4 headed monster on offense that dictates the tempo and direction of this game.

The Pick: I’m backing the best team in the country here and taking the Buckeyes to win and cover. I have a bit of a feeling that this Indiana top ranked defense is a BIT of a paper tiger, having not quite being tested to the level of this OSU team. Buckeyes roll, but it’s a great game.

Other 🔑 Games To Watch

Friday Night

Kennesaw State (-2.5) v. Jacksonville State o61.5 — 7pm on CBS

• The Conference USA Championship game between 9-3 KSU and 8-4 J. State. This is ANOTHER rematch, where just 3 weeks ago we (maybe just me) saw JSU take down the Owls 35-26. KSU WR Gabriel Bernard is one to watch here, averaging 100+ receveing yards over his last 4 games, and scoring 6 TDs in that span. I like the Owls to get their revenge here.

Troy v. James Madison (-24.5) o46.5 — 7pm on ESPN

• The Fun Belt Championship isn’t looking too fun this year, with JMU being a 4 score favorite. Despite losing their head coach just a few weeks ago to UCLA, they bounced back with the hiring of former Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier. Sun Belt Billy is back! I think the Dukes roll here and I guess if I had to make a pick, it would be the over 46.5 here. That’s too low.

#24 North Texas (-1.5) v. #20 Tulane o66.5 — 8pm on ABC

• This is where my eyes will be glued all night, as my BOY Drew Mestemaker and his 11-1 Mean Green battle in New Orleans for the American Athletic Conference championship. I think Mestemaker lights this very porous Tulane defense up. If you read my Wednesday Player Prop newsletter you already know I’m all over him and his leading WR Wyatt Young to have BIG nights. I think North Texas knows they are fighting for that at-large CFP bid, and make a statement here winning this game.

Saturday Night

#Duke v. #17 Virginia (-4.5) o57.5 — 8pm on ABC

• I am legally obligated to mention this game, despite its unattractive nature. Well, even though it does consist of 7-5 Duke, this one game has the power to make the most chaos happen. I tend to root for chaos, because it’s fun if my team isn’t affected, so hell yeah give me the Blue Devils to win this game and throw everyone into a frenzy about Notre Dame vs. Miami. Good luck College Football Playoff Committee! You group of self-righteous jackasses

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⭐️ CFB Championship Weekend Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker — o312.5 pass yards + o2.5 total TDs:

🏅 Georgia QB Gunner Stockton — o26.5 rush yards

🏅 Alabama WR Isaiah Horton — o2.5 receptions

🏅 BYU QB Bear Bachmeier — o29.5 passing attempts

🏅 Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt — o4.5 receptions

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College Football Player Props 📈

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We’ve got a jam-packed newsletter for you today, with NFL and CFB Picks and Props starting today and running all the way through the weekend! Feel free to share all my objective and correct takes with each and every one of your family members this Holiday season 🦃

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Welcome to the Weekly Deuce, a sports newsletter by me, Drew, a sports junkie. This newsletter is free, but consider becoming a paying subscriber to support the work that I’m doing so I can continue to do it! I appreciate all of you 🫡

NFL Thanksgiving 🔑 Games

Packers @ Lions (-3 T: 47.5)

Our first Thanksgiving matchup is one that has been played 21 times, most in NFL history on Turkey day, with the Lions playing every Thanksgiving since 1934 (except for a little WW2 break). If you have a working memory, you already know this about the Lions, and you also know that they tend to lose this game nine times out of ten. Dan Campbell and crew broke a 7 game losing streak last year with a 23-20 win over the Bears, but haven’t beaten the Packers in this spot since 2013. Now that we have that out of the way, what do my team of nerds have to say about it?

Per the Nerds, Detroit is a Top 5 offense (4th in YPG, 3rd in rush YPG & 2nd in PPG) with a rushing attack led by Jamhyr Gibbs, averaging 121 total YPG. Coincidentally, they are up against a Top 5 Packers defense holding teams to just 294 YPG — 2nd best in the NFL. The addition of Micah Parsons has been enormous, as the pass rush is one of the best in the league this year, and in the backend, they have allowed the fewest deep passing yards this year. The nerds also think this matchup is a FG game, and I tend to agree, however I think I’ll take the over 47.5. It’s more fun to cheer for points, and I am willing this game to be a fun Jordan Love v. Jared Goff “my weapons are just as good as yours” shootout.

Cowboys v. Chiefs (-3 T: 52.5)

An interesting game here. I feel like these teams never play, but maybe that’s just me I don’t know. The Cowboys have played the second most games on Thanksgiving, putting up a 34-22-1 record since 1966, with QB Dak Prescott going 3-3 in such games. In those 6 games, he is averaging 320 passing YPG and 3 TDs, pretty good.

Okay so I had to know so I looked it up — these teams haven’t played since 2021 (ha I knew it) and have only played twice since 2013 (wild). I think this should be pretty fun: you’ll get plenty of Taylor Swift cameos, Jim Nantz and Tony Romo busting out of their jeans talking about Mahomes, and George Pickens in prime time. My instinct here is not to make a pick on this game, but to instead play some fun player props, so check those out below.

Bengals @ Ravens (-6.5 T: 52.5)

So the rumor is Joseph Burrow is playing tonight. Not sure how much truth there is to that but it won’t change my thoughts about this game. I think the Ravens are due to score 30+ points (haven’t done so since late October) and we know the Bengals defense sucks big ole balls so it’s likely to happen. The weather in Baltimore is forecasted to be 35 degrees, with a 95% chance of Tractorcito sightings. I think Derrick Henry gets loose early and often, and the Ravens take care of the Bengals and extend their win streak to 6 games. I’ll be the square and take the Ravens to cover the -6.5 points.

College Football — Rivalry Week 🏆

#1 Ohio State @ #15 Michigan (OSU - 9.5 T: 43.5) Enormous Noon Kickoff on FOX

The Game. We head to Ann Arbor Michigan where the Buckeyes seek their win first win in the series since 2019. The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of snow with a high of 31 degrees ❄️, this is gonna get nasty! I’m in a bit of a time crunch due to the holidays so I can’t get as in depth in my breakdowns as I’d like, but I’ll do my best to give some insight on these bigger games.

Ohio State has been a machine this season, tearing through everyone they play, as QB Julian Sayin has continued to look better and better every week. WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate might be the best 2 in the sport, and face off against a Michigan secondary that isn’t quite what it used to be. I think this Michigan team has the bones of the gritty, hard nosed teams of the years past, but I don’t see it being enough. You’ve got a freshman QB up against the defending National Champions and the #1 ranked defense in the country. I think DC Matt Patricia heats him up in this cold weather game and the Buckeyes get their first win in 6 years. However, I will be taking the Wolverines to cover the +9.5 point spread, I think the combo of the fun weather and the rivalry voodoo keep this close enough to be interesting.

#10 Alabama @ Auburn (Bama - 5.5 T: 46.5) 7:30pm on ABC

Quite possibly “The Game” of the SEC, the Iron Bowl. I truly thought that Auburn had a fighters chance in this one until I heard their decision to start QB Ashton Daniel’s 😑 instead of Freshman phenom Deuce Knight. Knight is coming off a 6 TD performance in his first career start, where he ran for 162 yards on 9 carries, oh and 3 TDs of over 60+ yards. The duel threat QB is exactly the spark the Tigers needed heading into this matchup, yet they start this jabroni from Stanford. Now Daniel’s has played well (against Vandy he had 353 pass yards + 89 rush yards 5 total TDs) so maybe I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

As for the Tide, we kinda know what they are. A good team with tons of talent that cannot really run the ball, and when Simpson is under pressure he struggles a bit more than the national media would like to admit. I love this matchup on the line of scrimmage, as that is Auburns strength. They are healthy and playing (semi) inspired football since the extrication of Hugh Freeze as head football coach. There is a reason this game spread is as close as it is… and strange things happen in Jordan-Hare at night… just saying. I’m taking the Tigers to upset the Tide and ruin their season — Go Tigers baby.

Other 🔑 Games To Watch

#4 Georgia v. #23 Georgia Tech o59.5— Friday 3:30pm on ABC

• Clean Old Fashioned Hate. GT technically is the home team, but has cowardly opted to play this game down the street in Mercedes Benz stadium. A sick venue no doubt, but I feel like we’re missing out on a sold out Bobby Dodd, with hundreds of screaming fans packing out that 20,000 person stadium. Last year this went to 8 overtime’s, with UGA winning, and I think we see another explosion of points. I do think the Dawgs get it done, but I like the over in this one more than either side.

#3 Texas A&M @ #16 Texas (+2.5) — Friday 7:30pm on ESPN

• This is a sneaky one, and I do not know what to pick. Texas A&M is a very good football team, but they are vulnerable. We saw just last week when they were down 31-3 at the half to a bad South Carolina team. Arch is peaking at the right time, and this game is in Austin. I’ve consulted my most trusted source (my mom) and will follow her gut on this one — Texas wins this football game. ‘Nuff said.

#25 Arizona @ #20 Arizona State o46.5 — Friday 9pm on FOX

• The 99th meeting of these teams in the “Territorial Cup” takes place in Tempe tomorrow night, and not enough people are talking about it. The teams are opposite — ASU is the better run team with a good run defense, while Zona gets it done through the air. Zona is the hottest team in the Big 12, rattling off 4 straight wins (2 over ranked teams) since the last second loss in Houston. I like the Cats to stay hot and knock off the Sun Devils.

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⭐️ NFL Thanksgiving Player Prop Plays ⭐️

🏅 Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs — o4.5 receptions + 0.5 rush/receiving TD

🏅 Lions QB Jared Goff — o240.5 passing yards

🏅 Packers RB Josh Jacobs — o59.5 rush yards + 0.5 rush/receiving TD

🏅 Chiefs WR Rashee Rice — o74.5 receptions + 0.5 rush/receiving TD

🏅 Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes — o257.5 pass + rush yards (use my UnderDog discount link below for access to this line!)

🏅 Cowboys WR Ceedee Lamb — o79.5 receiving yards

🏅 Cowboys WR George Pickens — o5.5 receptions

🏅 Ravens RB Derrick Henry — o94.5 rushing yards

🏅 Bengals WR Jamarr Chase — o7.5 receptions + o0.5 rush/receiving TD + ladder his receptions up o12.5 because he’s a demon (welcome back Joe!)

🏅 Ravens WR Zay Flowers — o4.5 receptions

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Welcome to the Weekly Deuce, a sports newsletter by me, Drew, a sports junkie. This newsletter is free, but consider becoming a paying subscriber to support the work that I’m doing so I can continue to do it! I appreciate all of you 🫡

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Favorite Spots 🏆

Cardinals +1.5 v. Jags: This is purely a “Fade the Jags after a huge blowout win against a team a team that is definitely better than you” spot. I’ve seen this movie too many times, and coincidentally, it’s also a “Take the team that suffered a brutal divisional blowout loss last weekend” spot. When those two things come together, it’s magic. I’m riding the Brissett train all the way home here, and expect a huge day from Mike Wilson.

Eagles v. Cowboys o46.5: Simple, you take the Cowboys overs. They added Quinnen Williams to that interior D-line, and despite a small sample size, he has greatly improved that aspect of the defense, but the secondary is still hot cross BUNS. That unit ranks 30th in yards per catch and total yards allowed per game. This will require Jalen Hurts to throw the ball, and throw it well, so we will see about that, but I think it’s a great spot for him and this passing game to get right.

Packers -6.5 v. Vikings: This is me once again fading JJ McCarthy. Do I feel bad about it? Idk, kinda? I don’t dislike the guy, per se, but if you’re gonna give me access to him throwing an INT every week, I’m gonna keep taking it. Similarly, if you give me the Packers at home in a must-win divisional game as 1 score favorites, I’m gonna have it. Chicago took command of the NFC North, leaving Green Bay in a do or die spot moving forward, they can’t afford to love these games, and surely not to JJ McCarthy.

Rams v. Bucs o48.5: Everyone and their mother knows I love points, can’t live without em frankly, but I swear this time I have a pick based on math and logic. Two powerhouses (1st in their respective NFC divisions) meet with a Top 10 and Top 12 offense facing off against the 23rd and 17th overall defenses in YPG and PPG allowed. Matthew Stafford vs Baker Mayfield, Sean Tucker running like a mad man until he is #PL34SED with his performance (if you know you know), Puka Nakua making absurd catches AND it’s Sunday Night Football. Couldn’t wrap this up any better with a bow!

Player Prop Plays of the Day ⭐️

🏅TE Mark Andrew — over 3.5 receptions

🚨 This is record watch 🚨

Andrew’s needs 4 receptions today to become the Baltimore Raven’s all-time receptions leader. He already owns the team’s records for career receiving yards and TD receptions, and I think he completes the franchise triple crown today.

🏅QB Jameis Winston — over 226.5 pass yards and over 31.5 pass attempts.

Yes, we are going back to our boy here for the second weekend in a row. After his poor performance last weekend, I think he’s in another great spot to bounce back. He got us the attempts line last week, but this week I think it’s yards. Guess what? If I’m wrong, I don’t care, I’ll never take for granted the ability to watch this man throw the football. I’ve also just added his attempts to the card as well at 31.5, love that number. Have a day Jameis!

🏅QB Joe Flacco — over 240.5 pass yards & over 36.5 pass attempts

Similar to Jameis, I love Flacco today. He’s coming off his worst game of the year, and the game script will call for him to sling it. The Patriots defense has been vulnerable to accurate gunslingers who take chances (Baker 43 attempts, 275 yards — Josh Allen 250 yards) and with Chase suspended, I think they put a lower line out for Joe. Value!

🏅QB Tyler Shough — over 201.5 pass yards + ladder to 250 yards

This is a gross one guys but stay with me for a second. He is coming off a bye week to prepare for this game against Atlanta, who ranks 25th in EPA/DB since Week 7, allowing the 2nd most yards per pass attempt in this span. This is purely a value pick, as I don’t think he is accurately priced here. Could see a potential big day and may even ladder his yards up to 250.

🏅RB Derrick Henry — over 88.5 rush yards & o0.5 rush/receiving TD

As seen in the tweet above, we are quickly approaching Derrick Henry season, also known as El Tractorcito season. He’s got another great matchup, going up against the 23rd ranked Jets run defense, and has been starting to rev the engine up a bit, going over 100 yards in 3 of his last 5 games. The Jets allow 5.9 YPC to zone runs, which Baltimore runs ~55% of the time with Henry. Should be a huge day for Tractorcito.

🏅WR Wandale Robinson — over 8.5 Targets

Alright, let’s try this again. This was a great read last week, as Robinson saw 9 targets from Jameis, but only hauled in 4 of them, so out receptions play fell short. I think we take that information, process it, think about it a little bit, go for a walk maybe and think about our actions, and then come back inside and take his targets this week. We know Jameis will be slinging it, and Wandale has been a safety valve for all Giants QBs this season, averaging 11 targets per game over the last 2 outings.

🏅RB Bhayshul Tuten — over 44.5 rushing yards

I think we saw a potential changing of the guard in Jacksonville last weekend, as Tuten outcarried Etienne, averaging more yards per carry and frankly, looked like the better running back. I think this line is mispriced a bit, and expect Tuten to be very involved in the run game today. Similar to Derrick Henry, Tuten sees the majority of the zone scheme run plays, where Arizona is weakest — bottom 10 in YPC & success rate against zone runs. $10 to the first to tell me where the young man played college ball!

🏅WR Chris Olave — over 67.5 receiving yards

This is a personal pick, because as a Falcons fan, I know how this game against the Saints will go. Olave will remind people on national television that he is a 1st round Ohio State WR, and probably smoke this line. With Tyler Shough in the game, he has seen his target share increase every week, and with Shaheed now gone, that makes him priority #1.

🏅QB JJ McCarthy — over 0.5 Interception

It hit AGAIN last week (2 more times to be exact) so I’m gonna continue the hater run here and take it again. The sorta-kinda-Rookie QB has 5 INTs over his last 3 games, and he heads to Lambeau to face a top 10 pass defense. If you have stones, take him to throw 2 INTs, could Nine go back to back to back for us? Sorry JJ, prove me wrong!

🏅WR Michael Wilson — over 4.5 receptions + ladder up to 8

Man, I LOVE Michael Wilson. He is coming off a career game last week against the 49ers — 15 catches, 185 yards. With Kyler Murray still “injured”, Brissett has created undeniable chemistry with Wilson. He exploded last week, and I am probably falling for recency bias and living a little too much in the moment, but I think Wilson has another big week in a very advantageous spot. I am buying high here

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I hope everyone has a great Sunday!