Yesterday’s public card went 8-4, with two of those misses being hitter props (reminding me of why I like pitching props more, LOL) and a pretty fluky NRFI miss where a guy who hasn’t homered in nearly 300 career at-bats hit a solo shot.

And Kumar Rocker’s lack of K’s cost me a shot at a ridiculous +5420 parlay with all the pitching props!

I wish I had gone up the ladder on some guys like Liberatore, Nola, Messick - who all went way over their numbers…and we could have easily played Cavalli’s Ks (he had 11) instead of just his outs - but you also never know what version of Cavalli you are going to get!

This is officially the high-water mark of the season, as the sheet of integrity is updated to reflect a 53.7% win rate and season-high +26 units. I want to keep building that profit and building our bankrolls for the upcoming NFL season, but today is also a fairly small Thursday MLB slate, so today’s card is just six bets.

Three pitching props, two NRFIs, and yes - another hitter prop (this spot is too juicy to pass up).

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It also gives me some more time to really dive into NFL research and prep. I tossed out my favorite win totals about a month ago and discussed some of those yesterday on my VSIN spot. If you’re wondering what those positions are, here they are once again with a new Jags over 9.5 wins bet added in there.

Some of these odds have moved, but you can still get all of these bets at one book or another.

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Now I want to take a look at the season-long player prop market. It’s always tempting to slap down bets on players we like a lot during draft season, and the numbers on these types of props are ALWAYS going to look low or under their projections because the books bake in the injury risk.

It doesn’t mean they still can’t be profitable bets, but it often leads me to be very selective and only pick the spots that seem drastically too low. For example, I am big on David Montgomery this year in Houston, and his rushing TD prop is only 7.5 for the season. He had 8 last year as a part-time player (40% snap share) and is now the lead back. He could have 8 TDs in the first half of the season, making this bet a lot less dependent on him being healthy for all 17 games (though he’s been ultra-reliable and durable in his career, which certainly helps, too).

So you’ll see that I am not picking the high-end guys with yardage props over 1000 (for receivers and backs), and I am really focusing in on the second-tier players who have much lower numbers to hit.

Before I post those props, consider this discount for the upcoming NFL season!

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2026 NFL Player Props

I’ll update this list again before the season starts, especially if I add any more props between now and then.

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Today’s MLB slate a strong one, and I expanded my bets beyond strikeouts to some total outs props as well, something I have had some success with this season and in years prior.

I have to shout out a partner site real quick; the guys over at Dynatyze are super cool, and I’ve started using some of their betting tools while crafting picks. These graphics that I can create on their site are super fun, and I’m still just dipping my toes in the water there. They have a ton of tools for dynasty leagues, but also a little of everything.

Check them out; this isn’t a “use my link and sign up for their premium so I get a commission” thing either; I just really like their site and like to send people to sites I find super helpful. They have a ton of free resources, too; it’s not all paywalled content.

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Here’s one of the slips I made for today’s bets with five of my ten props for today. I have some notes in there (a few of them got a bit jumbled as I wrote too much in the space, whoops).

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REMAINING PROPS (PREMIUM)

The other five props are reserved for the premium folks. Don’t forget to grab a premium sub, as we are only about five weeks away from the NFL season, and you know I keep rocking MLB props all the way through September, too!

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I apologize for getting K props out late yesterday, but we did go 6-2 on those eight bets for a nice start to the second half. Landen Roupp was the only really bad read by me; the Spencer Miles bet just barely missed on the hook as he got to his fourth strikeout right before getting yanked and got hit hard.

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I was up in the middle of the night, not being able to sleep, so I really dug into this slate, took a short nap, and now want to deliver you a big ol’ winning card today in the old-fashioned long-form content!

I’ll start with a few freebies for all 3200 subscribers (new record total, welcome to all the newbies!) and then the rest of the card (sitting at 13 total bets right now, so 11 more) will be paywalled for the premium folks.

I highly recommend considering a premium membership! I drop bets just about every day across all three major sports, and for less than you’ll pay for a hot dog at the ballpark!

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Featured Strikeout Props

Jesus Luzardo over 6.5 strikeouts (-125 Novig)

Look at the last six starts from the Philly lefty! Yes, the one under was against the Mets that he’s facing today, BUT some psycho (me) went through every at-bat of that game this morning, and you know what?

Luzardo left 10 (yes - TEN!) more potential strikeouts on the table in that game in 2-strike counts where the Mets either drew a walk, got a hit, or weakly put the ball in play. Two strike counts result in strikeouts nearly 40% of the time, but Luzardo converted just 6 of 16 of them (37.5% rate).

Even more damning (unlucky) was that four of those failed conversations were when he had an 0-2 count! He had a 30% Whiff rate and 32% CSW% in that game and SHOULD have had 7Ks.

Jared Jones over 5.5 strikeouts (+122 FanDuel)

Jones was supposed to start yesterday before the smoke cancelled that game. He’s coming off a perfect six innings against the Braves in which he struck out 8 hitters, and he had six strikeouts the start before that.

He has dominant stuff, but has been on a pitch count and a bit erratic with control the first month back from surgery that cost him all of last season.

I like him a ton here against a Cleveland lineup that has been terrible lately (25% K% vs. RHP over the last month). They have a bunch of lefties in there, and Jones has been even better against LHP this season. Plus it’s a lot of young, free-swinging hitters, too.

If we didn’t have a pitch count to deal with, I would even consider laddering it up a few notches, but we are already getting plus money on 6 strikeouts; I won’t push it.

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So sure enough, at 4:00 AM, I was up for the day and anxious to dig into baseball stats, while also having football and basketball on the brain for some upcoming projects.

So I have a little extra time this morning that I usually do not, and I have been meaning to get an actual newsletter out to everyone for a while instead of just posting bets daily in the chat.

Today is a weird slate. There are more games than usual, but not as many easy bets (K props), which forced me into some other angles, such as outs props for pitchers and game totals, sides, etc.

Yesterday, we had some success with the F5 bets, and the only game bet that missed was the damn Rockies, who came up a run short. It makes me think that I should lean into those bets more often and force myself out of my comfort zone (K props).

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I am still using screenshots today for convenience, as I still need to finish another article before my children wake up and the rest of my day starts. Here are two bets on Novig that I couldn’t log on DOINK to kick things off.

Boston is rolling right now, but is also starting a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2024, Patrick Sandoval. I still like them a lot here, as Chicago is using a mediocre lefty, Anthony Kay. You can take the ML for better odds, but we cash this bet even in a tie by taking the half run, too. Perhaps it’s a bit conservative, but I am trying to win as many bets as possible and build the bankroll.

The Brewers are rolling with Logan Henderson, but I can’t bet on his K prop with him likely being on a pitch count. I do think we can invest in him for the F5; however, the Cardinals are going with Andre Pallante, who is nothing special.

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Game Bets + Player Props

So the order in which I logged these bets this morning prevents me from sorting them out, as they ended up in multiple screenshots. I logged some of these as early as 5 AM, so the odds are going to move; just be prepared.

Again, I send out a lot of stuff for all subscribers, but I highly encourage those of you who haven’t dabbled with a premium membership to give it a try. There are free trials, and the cost of a membership per month is less than what you’ll pay for a lunch combo at McDonald’s!

Here are the remaining 8 bets on the card; it’s quite a mix, and probably the most varied card I have put out in a while.

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For full transparency, that type of quick content is often the best way for me to deliver the content to you promptly. I considered things like “Dub Club” where I send out bets via text, but I actually love the Substack format, and the chat feature …

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Today brings new hope, with a full Friday slate and a lot of great matchups. I have NINE (yes, 9!) K props today, and am going to continue to attack totals, F5s, and NRFIs when (and only when) the odds make sense.

One of my K props today is over on Kalshi, where we are getting a player at -122 to go over his K prop when the next closest book is around -185!

If you haven’t signed up for Kalshi yet, you can use my promo code THUNDERDAN to get started with a nice little bonus.

I also love Novig, if you’d rather go with a prediction market that is focused only on sports, not other markets like politics, entertainment, and others.

Alright, let’s start getting into the bets. I’ll kick things off with game sides and totals.

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MLB Game Bets

I love the odds on these F5s, where I think both teams have a pitching advantage with their starters.

If we like Miz and Irvin’s K props today, then we also have to strongly consider that NRFI at -120, it’s one of the few matchups where both teams have pretty solid arms on the bump.

Getting the Rangers at 3.5 is big here; they get Jack Flaherty, who has been wild and pitching pretty poorly this year. Toronto is -150 at 3.5, but a smash play for me as they face Simeon Woods-Richardson, who has objectively been one of the worst starters in baseball this year.

And the Dodgers have arguably the best offense in baseball going up against Matthew Liberatore.

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Pitcher Props

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These K prop articles are partially paywalled, however, so the public isn’t getting all the goodies, don’t worry!

It was a small card yesterday, and while Cristopher Sanchez finally had a bad start, the Red Sox rookie Payton Tolle was dominant, whiffing 11 Yankees in his debut.

We also hit the PIT-TEX NRFI and the NYY-BOS F5 under, making for a winning night.

Today’s a weird slate in that I have more UNDER K props than overs, and my straight bets continue to be a blend on NRFIs and F5s for the most part. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?

And while unders are boring and less fun to root for, that’s where we are really looking today, as we simply don’t have many high K guys in good spots.

Let’s start with the game bets, shall we?

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MLB Sides/Totals

More juice than I would like on the F5 ML bets, but the current state of most teams’ bullpens makes me want to avoid the late-inning craziness. The LAA team total is a full-game bet. They hit lefties well, and Noah Cameron is a PRETENDER who simply isn’t all that good.

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Pitcher Props

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Anyways, a SWEEP and a +5 unit night is exactly what the doctor ordered!

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My Home Run Prop Bets are up at RotoBaller, if you want to peep any of those as well. Just check my Twitter feed for the link.

Straight Bets

Let’s start with the game bets, as it’s a diverse card today in terms of bet types, with a mixture of F5, NRFI, O/U, and a team total.

Really, really, really love these bets!

Okay, gotta keep it moving here and fairly short today, so let’s roll right into the K Props.

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Pitcher Props

I have five props today, four of which are at plus money so we should get a solid return on our investment if we can even go 3-2 (but why not go for 5-0?)

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The pollen is exploding, and so my tissue stockpile is about to dwindle, but I can’t complain - at least it’s not 2 feet of snow, am I right?

It always feels good to get back to the written word. I was mainly posting picks rather hurriedly in the subscriber chat this week, and while those still go out via email, I don’t love leaning on that too often. Today, I already bought my mulch for my flower beds and have my day lined up, so why not spend a little extra time penning a full article and not just dumping picks?

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So first of all, we had a very solid day yesterday, which I am hoping to start stacking those up again. DeGrom’s K prop missed, and the Twins ruined the parlay, but 4 props hit and both our NRFI and F5, so easily a winning day.

I do want to take a minute and let you know about a partnership with Kalshi that I just started.

Kalshi is a prediction market, and therefore, we aren’t paying a vig on the lines. It operates much like Novig, which I have mentioned here before, but offers markets for a lot of other non-sports topics as well.

I’ll only ever recommend sports markets plays, but if you are interested in some action over there, I can vouch for them! Deposits and withdrawals are super easy; they take PayPal, Venmo, debit cards, you name it.

Click here and use my promo code THUNDERDAN and get a nice little bonus when you make your first 10 bucks of trades. I’ll probably start posting some Kalshi-specific plays here soon as well.

NBA PROPS

I picked a prop from each of the four NBA games, and it just happened that all four of them were the same exact number - OVER 14.5 points!

Today’s MLB Straight Bets

Rolling with another NRFI (a bit juiced) and an F5 TOTAL.

MLB Pitcher Props

You KNOW this is where our bread is buttered! I have been working with my buddy Casey Wilson the last few days, overhauling our K projections, and I feel pretty good about the direction in which we are heading, especially after a 4-1 night on Friday.

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Last night was solid, as we hit 4 of 6 K props and both our F5s! I am going to roll out a few more F5s today and have another 6-K Prop card ready to roll as well.

I am bringing back the ML parlay tonight, too. Not too many big favorites on the board, but I really like both Aaron Nola and Framber Valdez in their matchups on the road, so we are doubling up some road faves in this one.

I also wrote an HR prop article for RotoBaller today, you can peep that HERE, but don’t go nuts betting on those, super small fractional units, please!

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As for those F5 ML Bets, we are sticking with the home teams and trying to target a few pitchers who have been pretty solid to start the year (Joe Boyle and Reid Detmers).

I love the odds we are getting here, much less juice than the -130 and -140 we had to pay yesterday.

NRFI fans, I am sorry, but this market on NRFIs right now is NUTS. I don’t have any today, but I will continue to monitor them daily.

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Strikeout Props

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And so I went on with my Monday to do a lot of productive things, but the Monday slate was not kind to me, as I whiffed (pun intended) on the K props AND NRFI bets BOTH - Jeez. Wins by the Brewers and Phillies helped salvage something, but it was still a tough night.

And so I pick myself back up off the mat today, resolved to get back on track. Shout out to anyone who picked up on the reference in the subtitle today - the title track of Everclear’s 1997 BANGER of an album.

So after dusting myself off and digging back in, I am optimistic about tonight. A lot of good pitchers on the mound and a new bet type to try out this year as well - the ole F5!

I don’t love the juice on these today, but the value on NRFIs is pretty much GONE with all the best spots at -150 or higher, yikes!

We are targeting SP mismatches here and trying to remove the bullpen from the equation. We get both home teams here with better arms on the bump. Sandy Alcantara has been spectacular so far for Miami, and Andrew Abbott is already showing signs of regression from last year.

In the other game, Washington has been hitting lefties hard, and Cade Cavalli is a higher-upside arm than Matthew Liberatore.

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Let’s try a NRFI parlay today instead. This is my favorite combo for tonight.

The rest of the card is K props today! I limited myself to SIX spots and left a few good potential plays off the card so we can focus on hitting these at a high rate, rather than chasing volume.

Pitcher Props

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I’m not going to lie, I was really bumming about Friday’s disaster of a slate and how I managed to blow a +12 unit start to the season in the matter of a few days.

I had to clear my head, step away a bit, and lean into the rest of my world. My house and yard need work done badly. Family came to visit yesterday. I needed to call my sister and talk, since she lives in California and we so rarely get a chance to chat. I needed to text my best friend from my old hometown and check in.

I had to really remind myself that winning and losing bets do not define me. I mean, that should be obvious, but I take this very seriously - especially since I have the nerve to ask people to pay for this service!

Here’s my takeaway. Sometimes winning is your biggest enemy. My hot start was great, but it also had me a bit overconfident when so much of the early-season betting is still very dicey with the lack of data that we have to use. The universe or “gambling gods” are always waiting to humble you - and they did. And they have before, so it’s not like I hadn’t been here either.

The good news is that I had some time to reflect on my process, pull more data, and find a few additional resources where I can cross-reference my potential bets. This is important, and I want you to know that a bet has to check multiple boxes before I greenlight it for the daily card.

So we hit 3 out of the 4 NRFI bets yesterday, which was a good place for the bounce-back to start. The one game we missed had two outs before Bubic gave up a HR, too, BUT you can’t dwell on that either!

After Easter dinner with family - in which I showed much more constraint than usual - I went out and bought some new running shoes. I went for a run - something my big body hasn’t done in a long time. It hurt, I struggled, but I pushed through and made it back to the house without stopping to walk.

I’m more motivated than ever to lose weight, eat better, and focus on the things that are the most important in my life. I feel refocused and ready to make positive progress every day. Spring is a metaphor for life, so often we have to emerge from the Winters of our lives with a new sense of purpose.

This is all a bit too deep for an article about betting on baseball, but this newsletter is sometimes the only opportunity for me to write about things other than sports, and you’re a captive audience! If you scrolled down to the bets and skipped all this stuff, I don’t blame you - we are all busy. But if you are in need of a reset in any aspect of your life, feel free to comment or send me a note. Maybe something I wrote here resonated with you, and if that’s the case, I’d love to hear about it.

OKAY, OKAY…..BASEBALL GAMES!

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MLB Moneylines (Straights)

It’s road favorite day! I haven’t been betting too many MLs straight up, but we have two potential significant pitching mismatches here today.

The Brewers have veteran Brandon Woodruff on the bump, facing a Boston offense that is struggling, while the Red Sox are tossing out Brayan Bello to face a Milwaukee offense that makes a lot of contact and has been a top-5 unit against RHP.

The Phillies are in a similar boat, with a very good offense up against a high-contact pitcher in Adrian Houser. Philly rookie Andrew Painter was impressive in his debut, and the Giants rank dead last in wRC+ vs. RHP this season.

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NRFI Bets

3-1 on these yesterday, expect to see them more often now going forward!

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I have to keep it pretty short, but to recap last night, we hit most of our K props, with Ohtani and Soriano leaving us hanging on the hook, UGH. I was also annoyed that the Mets’ offense totally disappeared, since Senga pitched well, ruining our ML parlay.

Still a positive night, and another really loaded slate today as we get a lot of ace pitchers back for their second starts.

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ML Parlays

Early Games

Late Games

NRFIs

I don’t include HR props on my official card, but I did cover them today at RotoBaller if you are looking to bet a few for fun - check them out here.

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Pitcher K Props

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The delay may even work in our favor. Jacob deGrom’s prop wasn’t posted until just recently, and these K props aren’t moving nearly as quickly during the day as they will once the season really gets going and sharp bettors attack them the night before or early in the morning hours.

Yesterday was the first losing day of the season, and I typically don’t make excuses but Cody Ponce was well on his way to getting 6 strikeouts before he had a fluky injury where he hurt his leg trying to field a ground ball.

That injury killed Ponce o5.5Ks and our 5+ K parlay, and may have indirectly also killed the ML parlay as the Toronto bullpen gave up a ton of runs and lost the game.

Variance is a bitch! But we remain undaunted, and while I at first thought this might be a small-ish card, it ended up being a pretty sizeable one!

Let’s start with the ML Parlay and NRFI for today.

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NRFI BET

ML Parlay

Underdog Upset of the Day

Jameson Taillon is TRASH, and I really like Jose Soriano. The Angels’ bats have been pretty decent to start the year, too. This feels like some pretty good value to me.

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Pitcher K Props

Ended up with more action here than I thought I would originally! Two more ALT PROP parlays here, too.

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Yesterday was a mixed bag of results for sure! Shane Baz was a guy I loved coming into the year, and he looked so sharp in the first inning, then got crazy wild and ran up his pitch count. The same thing happened to Tatusya Imai, who had FOUR strikeouts through two innings. Losing those two hurt, but Early, Imanaga, and Hancock all came through.

Imanaga ladder to 7 hit, providing some extra value, and I am kicking myself for not laddering Hancock up a few notches when his main line (3.5) was so low as he whiffed NINE Guardians and had a no-hitter through six innings with just one walk.

One thing I want to really stress is that I hope you are betting the props as straights and not ONLY as parlays. I always parlay all of them, in case we sweep, but I am devoting a tiny fraction of bankroll (sometimes as small as maybe 0.1 unit) on those types of bets.

One of our 5K Prop ALT parlays hit, while the other one missed, but at +174, we came out on top as long as you wagered one unit on each. Remember, anytime you are betting something above +100, you can afford to miss on another bet and AT WORST, you end up even. That’s why getting good odds matters so much!

And for the ladders, if I didn’t explain this already, the general rule is to put one full unit on the base play (was 4.5 for Imanaga yesterday), then half a unit up one rung (5.5), and a quarter unit up two rungs (6.5). If we go up one more, we can go down to 0.1 units.

Alright, let’s get to the picks. It’s a little slim pickings on the pitchers today as we are getting to the end of the rotation for most teams. And after talking so much about good odds, we are going to be eating some juice on some low numbers, too. But I hope to balance out the card with a few higher odds bets as well.

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ML Parlay

NRFI BET

Cincy-Pittsburgh NRFI (-130 FD)

Chase Burns is a stud, and Braxton Ashcraft is no slouch either. This is a good price today, considering both pitchers are rising talents; it’s likely affordable because of the ballpark, as they are playing in Cincy - a HR haven for hitters.

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Pitcher K Props

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If you did happen to run those ALT K PROP parlays, we hit the 5+ and 6+ groups, which certainly helped the ROI, and our main K spot was Eury Perez, who was good for 8 if you ran it up one rung on a ladder.

The ML Parlays both were saved by some late-inning heroics in Toronto and L.A., and I will continue to preach that those are really solid bankroll builders that I firmly believe we can hit on at a high rate all season.

Here’s a quick snapshot of yesterday’s results and of my action through the first three days - again, full transparency.

I was doing half units on NBA props this year, but I am really focused on quality over quantity in baseball and have moved to a full unit per prop (except on K ladders and a few other exceptions).

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ML Parlay

No NRFIs today, we got one yesterday, but the SP quality isn’t there today. Be patient with these; we tend to need more data before we can really settle into a groove.

I’m backing Shane Baz and the Orioles at home, as well as the biggest favorites on the slate - the Cubs, who I think have a big advantage on the mound today (more on Shota in a bit).

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Strikeout Props

Five spots for strikeouts today, and one LADDER opportunity as well.

Since those K bands did well yesterday, I included a few of those as well.

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I hate losing…especially losing props on the hook! But I suppose a 9-1 start on K props is pretty solid. NRFI bets went 2-1, but we dropped the ML Parlay thanks to Houston.

For those who may be new here, I track EVERY bet, and I am 100% transparent about my results. So when I tell you that after two MLB slates, I’m 14-6 (including parlays), +3.29 units and have a 14.6% ROI, I am pulling that right from my results spreadsheet, where every bet is tracked individually - mainly because I don’t trust any other site to track it for me, ha!

So I am hopeful that Day 3 continues the winning trend! I have a nice assortment of K props, NRFI, and not one, but TWO ML Parlays today (one early games, one later games) since we are finally getting a full slate of games today with every MLB team in action.

Probably skipping the NBA today. I am not shutting it down entirely, but I worked super hard in the second half of the season to go up +20 units on the season.

I don’t want to give it all back, betting on some of these wonky games. The first few rounds of the playoffs will present some solid prop opportunities! Til then, it’s BASEBALL time!

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K PROPS

Only 4 straight props today, we have lesser pitchers going in a lot of games, and I am being quite meticulous in the first few weeks so as not to bet on someone who isn’t stretched out in a really good spot.

And here are the ALT K PROP Parlays, 4+, 5+, and 6+ for those looking for a little more strikeout action!

NRFI BETS

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The grass is getting green, and there’s a brisk 50-degree breeze blowing through the air. It’s too hot for a coat, but when the wind blows, you’re cold in just a t-shirt, too.

Every team is tied …

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You can expect more of these types of articles/content when Summer rolls around. Right now is my super busy season, as the NBA (as maddening as it’s been) occupies a space in my brain and I’m t…

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