A bit of an aggressive quote by Cohodes, but he was undeniably one of the best short sellers in the game back in the day when it came to nailing structural blowups well before the rest of the street caught on. FTX was just his latest home run—he called that entire house of cards out months before it completely unraveled.

What separates Marc is his discipline around sizing: he’s all about patience, sitting in a core position, and waiting for the actual catalyst to materialize before aggressively pressing his bet.

On the long side today, he’s heavily involved in Glass House Brands, particularly around pushing the regulatory catalysts to get their export license over the finish line. When he gets conviction, he swings big—I don’t know the exact figure, but a massive chunk of his personal net worth is tied up in that name right now.

What I was reading and watching this week

PCE- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% month-over-month and held steady at 3.7% year-over-year, coming in slightly above consensus expectations of 3.6%. Core PCE (excluding volatile food and energy components) increased 0.2% month-over-month and was unchanged at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus estimates. On the consumer front, nominal personal income increased 0.4% while nominal consumer spending rose 0.2%; after adjusting for inflation, real consumer spending was flat (0.0%), pushing the personal saving rate up slightly to 3.0%. Overall, the print points to sticky underlying inflation and moderating real consumer demand, reinforcing that the Federal Reserve’s progress toward its 2% target remains slow and uneven.

Warsh Jackson Hole Speech- Warsh delivered a textbook data-dependent message at Jackson Hole, reaffirming the commitment to getting inflation back to target and warning the Street that the Fed still has real work to do if price pressures don’t roll over. He laid out the philosophy behind his stripped-down communication style—calling for a “quiet Fe

d” that is humble and never naïve—aiming to break the habit of micromanaging market expectations with endless forward guidance. Instead of pre-committing to a rate path or stepping in to soothe volatility at the long end of the curve, he made it clear that policy will center on structural shifts like tech and productivity while letting incoming hard data dictate where rates go from here.

At the end of the day, I think Bessent ultimately wins this fight to get rates lower, especially since Warsh and the Fed likely sit on their hands and do nothing between now and the midterms. If the Dems end up sweeping both the House and Senate, you already know the playbook: the GOP will immediately shift into full blame-game mode, claiming the economy is about to roll over. Doesn’t matter who is actually sitting in power—they just blame the other side regardless.

The Main Course

The stock market casino is open every single day for gamblers hunting action. Whether it’s punting short-dated OTM options or piling into triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs, there is never a shortage of liquidity to chase a rush.

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We’re seeing classic late-summer liquidity doldrums across headline…

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Whether it’s dissecting mistakes or adapting to new market regimes, this game fascinates me because it’s an endless riddle with no final answer. If it weren’t a relentless puzzle that demanded constant evolution, I wouldn’t be interested.

Could I have taken a cushy bank job pushing generic ETF models and collecting fees? Of course. But where’s the fulfillment in that?

The last few months have delivered a bizarre market environment. As algorithms and data flows speed up, I know I have to evolve just as fast. The challenge doesn’t intimidate me—it raises my standards. As the saying goes: if it were easy, everyone would do it.

Every morning at 6:30 AM, I’m at my desk refining my p

rocess and putting in the work. Most financial advisors just buy more SPY on a dip and call it a day. That isn’t alpha—it’s just lazy.

What I was reading and watching this week

I’ve been reading Billion Dollar Whale, the unbelievable story of how Jho Low orchestrated the 1MDB fraud. By weaponizing extravagance and bankrolling a nonstop mirage of success, he convinced global elites that he was a financial heavyweight.

The most compelling lesson is how easily perceived wealth manufactures trust. People wanted to believe the hype, so they bought into the narrative—completely blind to the fact that it was all fugazi and fairy dust from the start.

Existing Home Sales- U.S. existing-home sales fell 1.7% month-over-month in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, marking a second consecutive monthly decline as elevated mortgage rates (~6.66%) continue to weigh on buyer affordability and seller mobility. Despite the monthly drop, total sales remained up 0.7% year-over-year, and year-to-date sales are ahead 2.4%. Supply remains constrained, with total housing inventory dropping 1.9% month-over-month to 1.54 million units (a 4.6-month supply). Meanwhile, the national median existing-home price rose 2.0% year-over-year to $434,100—extending the streak of annual price appreciation to 37 consecutive months. First-time buyers accounted for just 29% of transactions, reflecting persistent entry-level affordability headwinds.

CPI- The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released this morning met consensus expectations, with headline inflation rising 0.1% month-over-month following a 0.4% decline in June, bringing the annual rate down slightly to 3.4% year-over-year (from 3.5% in June). Shelter costs accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly advance, rising 0.1%, while the energy index fell 1.5% over the month. Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy) rose 0.2% month-over-month and decelerated to 2.5% year-over-year (down from 2.6% in June), driven by modest gains in medical care and airline fares offset by drops in vehicle insurance. The overall in-line reading reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its September meeting rather than implementing further rate hikes.

PPI- The U.S. Producer Price Index for final demand came in flat (0.0% MoM) in July, coming in softer than the +0.2% consensus forecast and following a revised 0.1% decline in June. On an annual basis, headline PPI cooled significantly to 4.7% YoY (down from 5.5% in June). The headline moderation was driven by a 0.7% drop in goods prices—largely fueled by a 3.1% decline in energy (including a 5.7% drop in gasoline)—which completely offset a modest 0.2% uptick in services. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% MoM (4.2% YoY), while the broader core gauge (excluding food, energy, and trade services) rose 0.4% MoM (4.7% YoY). Overall, the softer print reinforces the narrative of easing wholesale price pressures and strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at upcoming policy meetings.

Retail Sales- U.S. retail and food services sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% MoM in July to $763.6 billion, falling well short of the consensus expectation for a slight 0.1% gain and reversing June's unrevised 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, headline retail sales decelerated to 5.0% YoY. The monthly pullback was primarily driven by sharp drops in motor vehicle and parts dealers (-1.8%), nonstore/online retailers (-2.2%)—reflecting payback after major e-commerce promotions were pulled forward into June—and gasoline stations (-0.9%). Excluding autos, retail sales slipped 0.3% MoM, while the core retail control group (which excludes autos, gas, building materials, and food services, feeding directly into GDP consumption) fell 0.4% MoM versus expectations of a 0.3% rise. In tandem with yesterday's flat PPI, this morning's softer spending print highlights cooling consumer momentum and further solidifies the case for the Fed to pause or ease policy constraints heading into the fall.

The Main Course

My wife can attest that as I get older, the quest to prolong longevity comes up in my mind a lot. To get comfortable being uncomfortable is what I wake up trying to do every single day. Sitting around on a couch taking it easy doesn’t appeal to me anymore the way it did in my 20s and 30s. Whenever I’m doing anything strenuous to my mind or body, my immediate reaction is: how can I push harder to put myself even further into the uncomfortable zone? Today, if you tell me I can’t do something, I’ll spend weeks or months mastering a new craft just to prove you wrong. As David Goggins would say—callous the mind!

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As always, it’s time to audit what worked (not much) and what didn’t (plenty)—a routine exercise to refine our process and sharpen execution. The defining lesson from this stretch: shorting into runaway momentum is a loser’s game. When momentum takes hold of high-beta, heavily shorted names, the disciplined move is to step aside—not play the hero. Trying to stand in front of a short squeeze is a fast track to getting body-bagged.

We saw the ugly flip side of this dynamic in July, with multi-billion-dollar funds suffering catastrophic drawdowns. Downside momentum is just as relentless as upside momentum; under that weight, several heavily levered funds were forced into emergency liquidations to avoid total collapse.

What I am reading and watching this week

"The ticket to victory often comes down to bringing your very best when you feel your worst."- David Goggins

Finishing David Goggins’ Can’t Hurt Me really drives home his idea of callousing the mind. The guy sits in a category completely by himself when it comes to mental toughness. He went through BUD/S Hell Week three separate times, powering through broken bones and physical breakdown to finally earn his Trident. He was so relentless that during his final run, instructors had to pull him out of group beatdowns because he was actively feeding on the pain. Only 25 of 150 candidates made it through his class. Whether he’s running grueling 100+ mile ultra-marathons or breaking world pull-up records, Goggins is an absolute animal when it comes to conquering mind over matter.

It puts personal friction into perspective. Ice baths for five minutes or heavy sessions at the gym and on the bike have become familiar routines for my body, but taking on a 2-to-3-day fast this week is where the real mental work happens. Nothing but water and tea for three days straight. It’s the ultimate test of comfort vs. discomfort. Cleansing the system is a great byproduct, but building a tougher, more resilient mindset is the real objective.

ISM Manufacturing- The July ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 55.6% (beating expectations of 54.0% and up from 53.3% in June), marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion and the highest headline reading since May 2022. All five sub-components landed in expansion territory, headlined by a 6.3-point surge in Production to 58.5% and Employment breaking a 33-month contraction streak to print at 52.8%. New Orders continued their upward momentum at 56.7%, fueled by robust AI/tech infrastructure demand and defense spending, while Prices Paid cooled slightly to 71.1% but remain elevated. Overall, 15 of 18 industries reported growth, though panel sentiment remains cautious around input price volatility, supply chain lead times, and broader geopolitical friction.

JOLTS- The June 2026 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released this morning indicates a stabilizing, "slow-hire, slow-fire" labor market. Headline job openings edged down by 178,000 to 7.359 million—slightly below expectations of 7.400 million—driven primarily by pullbacks in healthcare, social assistance (-147k), and wholesale trade (-74k). Despite the drop in open roles, actual hiring ticked up slightly to 5.348 million (a 3.4% rate), while layoffs remained steady at a historically low 1.8 million (1.1% rate) and quits held flat at 3.2 million (2.0% rate). Overall, the data points to a resilient yet subdued labor landscape where employers are reluctant to cut staff but cautious about aggressive expansion, giving the Federal Reserve room to maintain its primary focus on inflation metrics.

ISM Services- The July 2026 ISM Services PMI edged up 0.1 point to 54.1%, signaling a 25th consecutive month of expansion for the services sector, even as it landed just below the 54.5% consensus expectation. Top-line momentum was driven by strong gains in business activity (59.1%) and new orders (57.2%), but underlying details revealed mounting stagflationary pressures: the prices paid index accelerated to a elevated 70.3% amid persistent supply and energy cost pressures, while employment reversed back into contraction territory at 47.4% as firms managed headcount and costs

NFP- The July payrolls report delivered a sharp, unexpected contraction in labor market momentum. The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs against expectations for an 80,000 to 97,500 gain—a miss compounded by 103,000 in negative revisions to prior months. While the headline unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% on falling participation, broad-based weakness across local government education, retail, and financials easily outpaced modest healthcare gains. Paired with muted wage growth (+0.1% MoM), the print confirms a clear "low hiring, elevated caution" backdrop across corporate America—and effectively slams the door on any remaining Fed rate-hike thesis for the year.

The Main Course

Over the past year, I’ve repeatedly highlighted PCT’s immense growth potential, yet the stock has done little more than chop violently in a $6–$14 range—and now sits right back near the low end. Even as management lands new customers and advances plans to scale additional facilities, shorts keep leaning into the name while frustrated holders dump into every pop. But at some point, a range bound this tight has to break—and Thursday’s earnings print may very well mark that structural turning point.

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According to this index, a TACO is likely this weekend if crude keeps grinding higher. Let’s see if Trump pivots.

“Denial is the ult…

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If you caught Wyndham Clark’s win at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills last month, you might have noticed a recurring theme on the broadcast. Before literally every single shot, across all four rounds, his caddie whispered the same two words to him- “Good process.”

Whether you’re managing an investment fund, navigating a hi…

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As we move into the second half of the year, everyone is up in arms about FIFA overturning the red card given to US player Folarin Balogun. Personally? FIFA got it right and did the right thing. Everyone else can run with whatever narrative they want, but FIFA made a mistake and corrected it. Well done.

In the end, it didn’t even matter. The US team completely fell on their face and got thoroughly outplayed by Belgium. There was a ton of hype going into this match, but the US never showed up, and Belgium looked like the better team for the entire 90 minutes. Now we can all go back to caring about soccer again in four years.

What I was reading and watching this week

Haven’t started a new book yet, but Bad Company was a great read. It really highlights all the shitty deals private equity firms forced through and completely botched. It’s a massive problem when a PE shop goes into a deal with the sole priority of lining their own pockets, rather than actually fixing the company and making it profitable for the shareholders and employees.

ISM PMI- (Purchasing Managers' Index) released on Monday for June 2026 came in at 54.0%, indicating that the vast U.S. service sector expanded for the 24th consecutive month, albeit at a slightly cooler pace than May’s 54.5% reading. Out of 18 tracked industries, 14 reported growth—led by Arts & Entertainment and Wholesale Trade—with respondents noting that baseline demand remains healthy despite consumers selectively pulling back on discretionary spending. Crucially for corporate margins and inflation expectations, the Prices Paid index eased to a four-month low of 67.7%, signaling some relief from sticky services input costs. Meanwhile, the Employment index provided the biggest positive surprise of the report, jumping 3.3 percentage points to 51.2% and crossing back into expansion territory for the first time in four months, which suggests that service-sector firms are starting to thaw the rigid hiring freezes that characterized the spring.

FOMC Mins- The Fed's June 16-17 minutes, released Wednesday , confirmed a hawkish shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who unanimously held rates at 3.50%–3.75% (the fourth straight hold) while stripping the policy statement down to just 130 words with no forward guidance. The bigger story was the dot plot: the median 2026 rate projection jumped to 3.8% (implying one hike) from March's 3.4% (which had implied a cut), with 9 of 18 participants now penciling in at least one hike this year versus zero in March — while Warsh himself declined to submit a projection, the first chair to do so since 2012. Because these minutes reflect thinking as of June 17, they predate the weaker-than-expected June jobs report (just 57,000 jobs) that's since softened some of that hawkish repricing. Markets reacted by pushing Fed funds futures toward 4% by year-end, with gold and equities under pressure and the dollar firmer; the next real test is June CPI data on July 14.

Existing Home Sales- shows the housing market is still locked in a classic gridlock, characterized by low volume and stubborn pricing. June existing home sales fell 2.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, missing the Street's expectations of roughly 4.20 million as elevated mortgage rates continue to force buyers to the sidelines. Despite the monthly drop in transaction volume, structural inventory scarcity pushed the national median sales price up 1.8% year-over-year to a fresh record high of $440,600—marking the 36th consecutive month of annual price increases. Total unsold inventory ticked down slightly by 0.6% to 1.56 million units, leaving the market at a tightly balanced 4.6-month supply. Regional performance was highly fragmented, with the South and Midwest driving the monthly declines, while the Northeast managed a modest 2.1% sales gain. Ultimately, it's the exact same script we've seen for months: current homeowners refuse to give up their sub-5% mortgages, keeping supply tight enough to defend all-time high valuations even as buyers struggle with affordability constraints.

The Main Course

For long-time readers of this Substack, the Glass House thesis needs no introduction. We have officially arrived at the structural inflection point.

The first major milestone is the NYSE listing, which finally allows institutions to add GLAS to their portfolios. This is a massive liquidity catalyst that effectively eliminates the compliance red tape that previously barred institutional ownership.

From here, the setup presents asymmetric, explosive catalysts to unlock major shareholder value. Near-term alpha will likely be driven by one of two vectors: a series of high-margin pharmaceutical partnerships to launch new formulations, or the execution of their international export strategy—where wholesale pricing commands a 2x to 3x premium over compressed US domestic markets. Either path represents a fundamental rerating of the business.

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"They built wiser than they knew." — Ralph Waldo Emerson

Massive energy building heading into the weekend as the country celebra…

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With market noise at an all-time high and a compressed VIX masking true underlying volatility, running a deep diagnostic on the portfolio is critical right now.

As names drift around on light volume, the game is finding the next sector or factor style ready to show relative strength. Healthcare has been popping up on my screens with increasing frequency. If the market is finally getting ready to allocate capital here, it sets up a classic macro crossroad: are we looking at defensive storm clouds on the horizon, or is this just a deeply neglected value space finally finding oxygen after months of the tech-chase?

What I was reading and watching this week

Still making my way through Bad Company this summer. The numbers tell a brutal story about the private equity model. According to Cal Poly research, 20% of companies taken private via LBOs go bankrupt within a decade—a 10x increase over the 2% failure rate of non-PE peers.

Even a formal restructuring isn’t a silver bullet, as half of those that try still end up going out of business. This isn’t a new phenomenon either; between 2012 and 2019, 10 of the 14 largest retail collapses were entirely PE-owned.

PCE- The May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on June 25, 2026, revealed that inflation remains stubbornly sticky, hitting multi-year highs and complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Headline PCE accelerated to a 4.1% annual rate (up from 3.8% in April), driven heavily by recent energy supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, marking its highest level since early 2023. On a monthly basis, the headline index rose 0.4%. Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation—Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy costs—increased 0.3% for the month and ticked up to 3.4% year-over-year (up from 3.3% in April). While the numbers largely matched consensus Wall Street expectations, the 3.4% core print represents the highest reading since October 2023 and underscores that price pressures are broadening deeper into healthcare, services, and utilities.

The Main Course

If you told me before the Iran conflict started that the majority of energy stocks would be trading lower today—even with the Strait of Hormuz shut down and global supply chains completely upside down—I wouldn’t have believed you. In the old world, disrupted supply and accelerating earning power meant energy names caught a massive bid. Today? Multiples compress, the oil gets sold, and fundamentals take a back seat.

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We’ve seen a clear technical dynamic play out over the past couple of months: a number of institutional names were aggressively unloaded across the street simply to free up the liquidity needed to absorb the massive wave of SpaceX (SPCX) supply that hit on Friday. While the borrow is finally opening up and you are technically able to short the name now, the retail hype and momentum behind it are still running on pure emotion. The smart play here is patience—you have to wait for the signal to confirm the regime shift before stepping in front of this freight train.

To put the current euphoria into proper historical context, consider this: Cisco (CSCO)—the absolute poster child of the 1999–2000 tech bubble—traded at a peak of 28x price-to-sales. SpaceX is currently commanding a valuation north of 152x price-to-sales. We are looking at textbook, peak dot-com insanity.

The real test comes this fall. When the next major wall of lock-up expirations and secondary supply hits the market, it is highly weaponized, and I do not know who the marginal buyer is on the other side to support these multiples. It’s deeply concerning to watch retail get sucked into this kind of extreme speculation, largely because retail advisors are jamming it down their clients’ throats with wild narratives about asteroid mining. It’s truly incredible what people will choose to believe when momentum replaces fundamental math.

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” — John Maynard Keynes

This classic Keynesian quote has never been more relevant than in today’s momentum-chasing, highly gamified market environment. I never like to step in front of a raging bull market—trying to short pure emotion is a quick way to get carried out on a stretcher.

But make no mistake: when this structural behavior starts to fracture—and the data will show it early—I will be flashing the risk-off signal to pivot defensively into lower-beta names. For now… Party on, Garth!

What I was reading and watching this week

Started a new book, Bad Company, which dives straight into the horror stories of private equity—exposing how companies are systematically gutted by sponsors whose sole mandate is margin expansion and short-term extraction.

The opening profile on Toys “R” Us is a classic case study in financial engineering over operational sanity. The playbook is identical every time: execute a massive Leveraged Buyout (LBO), saddle the target’s balance sheet with the very debt used to acquire it, and simultaneously drain liquidity through a parasitic stream of advisory, management, and transaction fees. Left structurally starved and crushed under the weight of toxic debt service, the business is left to rot until the refinancing wall eventually triggers a forced bankruptcy.

While these are case-specific stories, they expose a broader, systemic issue. There is an active roster of predatory players executing this exact playbook time and again hollowing out viable businesses for short-term financial engineering. The real tragedy isn't just the destruction of corporate balance sheets; it's the human cost. When these companies are left to rot, it completely shatters the lives of the dedicated, long-term employees who relied on those jobs to support their families.

Building Permits/Housing Starts- The U.S. housing market hit a significant wall in May as housing starts plummeted 15.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million, missing the consensus estimate of 1.43 million by a wide margin and marking the lowest level of construction activity since the early days of the pandemic in 2020. While single-family starts saw a modest decline of 1.9% (882,000 annualized), the real destruction was concentrated in the highly volatile multi-family segment, which plunged from 529,000 to just 284,000 units. Leading indicators offered little hope for a quick reversal: building permits also slipped 0.7% to an annualized 1.413 million, pointing to continued deceleration ahead as builders capitulate to stubbornly high mortgage rates, persistent material costs, and weakening sentiment.

Retail Sales- The May Retail Sales print released by the Commerce Department this morning came in significantly hotter than expected, highlighting a consumer that is still spending heavily despite broader macro pressures. Total retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month (to $763.7 billion), easily beating the consensus forecast of a 0.5% gain. This accelerates from a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in April. Year-over-year, total sales jumped 6.9%. The core takeaway is that while energy costs drove a large portion of the top-line number, underlying demand remains incredibly sticky.

FOMC Decision- The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% yesterday but paired the pause with a hawkish update to its economic projections. Driven by sticky inflation forecasts, the median dot plot for 2026 flipped from predicting cuts to signaling a target rate of 3.8% by year-end, with half of the committee now favoring a rate hike. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced this shift by abandoning traditional forward guidance, committing instead to a strictly data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance.

The Side Dish

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The chart above breaks out the current top 10 individual allocations inside SPY versus the remaining aggregate weight of the index.

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"Of course, it doesn't matter who is selling. If you're selling, somebody has to buy. In order to get somebody to buy when the market is flooded with paper, you've got to encourage them—and the only way to encourage them is for the price to go down."-Milton Friedman

Channeling one of the great economists of the past: Whenever someone asks me why the market was down for the day, I just say, "More sellers than buyers!" It really is as simple as that. Don't let the media's daily narratives overcomplicate a basic imbalance of supply and demand.

What I was watching and reading this week

Still working my way through Wealth, War and Wisdom. What everyone should realize right now is that the markets do not care about the Iran conflict, and neither do energy prices. While certain parts of Asia are absorbing some economic pain, the US and other energy-independent nations are doing just fine. Price is the ultimate truth; don't let personal narratives cloud your judgment on what should happen. React to actual price action rather than trying to predict the next macro crash or boom.

Existing Home Sales- U.S. existing-home sales for May broke out of their spring slump this morning, surging 3.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units (up from 4.04 million in April). The print solidly beat consensus expectations of 4.07 million, marking the fastest pace of sales since December. On the pricing front, the median existing-home price notched a new record high of $429,300, up 1.3% year-over-year, driven by tight underlying supply fundamentals despite a 3.3% bump in monthly inventory to 1.55 million units (a 4.5-month supply). Regionally, sales growth was led by the Midwest (+6.4%) and South (+3.2%), while the West remained entirely unchanged. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that despite recent ticks higher in mortgage rates, the market is finding a floor as localized income gains begin to outpace price growth.

CPI- U.S. headline inflation accelerated for the third consecutive month in May, climbing to a three-year high of 4.2% year-over-year (up from 3.8% in April) and matching consensus forecasts. The print was heavily driven by the ongoing geopolitical energy shock in the Middle East, with monthly energy costs jumping 3.9%—accounting for over 60% of the aggregate monthly CPI increase (+0.5% MoM). Annual core CPI ticked up to 2.9% (vs. 2.8% prior), but the silver lining for fixed-income desks was the sequential core reading, which decelerated to a cooler-than-expected +0.2% month-over-month. While the softer underlying core data suggests that energy spikes aren't broadening out into structural goods and services just yet, the hot headline number heavily complicates the upcoming June 16–17 Federal Reserve policy meeting, cementing expectations that newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh will keep rates higher for longer to anchor long-term expectations.

PPI- The May 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) report delivered a significant headline miss, with final demand surging 1.1% MoM (above the 0.7% consensus) and accelerating to 6.5% YoY, marking the highest wholesale inflation print since November 2022. The upward drive was almost entirely an energy shock triggered by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz; final demand goods jumped 2.8% on the month, heavily penalized by a massive 23.4% spike in gasoline prices and an 11.8% lift in crude petroleum. Conversely, core PPI (excluding food and energy) offered a minor silver lining, printing at a cooler 0.4% MoM and holding steady at 4.9% YoY (beating the 5.4% consensus forecast). While core elements showed signs of stabilization, the severe headline pipeline pressure keeps fixed-income markets on edge regarding trailing impacts to future CPI prints and the upcoming FOMC policy path.

Consumer Sentiment- The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index bounced off May's record low, printing at 48.9 to beat the 46.0 consensus. The modest 9.2% month-over-month recovery was primarily driven by a brief, early-month relief in retail gasoline prices, sparking a notable sentiment lift among lower-income brackets where fuel commands a disproportionate wallet share. Crucially for the macro trajectory, inflation expectations took a step in the right direction: year-ahead expectations ticked down to 4.6% (from 4.8%), while long-run 5-to-10-year expectations retreated significantly to 3.4% from last month's alarming 3.9% spike. Despite the across-the-board improvement in both current conditions (48.4) and expectations (49.3), the index remains highly depressed—sitting roughly 19% below last year's levels—as persistent "kitchen table" anxieties surrounding core inflation keep overall consumer economic assessments decidedly sour.

The Main Course

The $3 trillion mega-cap IPO pipeline for SpaceX and Anthropic represents an unprecedented structural liquidity event that is fundamentally rewriting public market dynamics. To engineer successful debuts, underwriters are utilizing tiny initial floats—just 4.3% for SpaceX and an estimated 6.2% for Anthropic—to create artificial day-one scarcity, even as a staggering $2.5 trillion in locked-up insider equity looms over the horizon. While a newly amended Nasdaq rule will force index trackers to fast-track SpaceX into the Nasdaq-100 just 15 days post-listing, providing a massive wave of programmatic demand, the market must still contend with an unusual, highly volatile phased lockup structure that unlocks 20% of SpaceX insider supply this August. Ultimately, these staggering valuations—predicated on SpaceX's structural space monopoly and Anthropic's massive $47 billion revenue run-rate—are forcing institutional funds to aggressively de-gross and free up billions in raw cash, acting as a massive near-term capital vacuum across the broader technology landscape.

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“Skate to where the puck is going” Wayne Gretzky

Allocating capital based on current market highs is a lagging strategy. Instead, long-term wealth creation requires anticipating macroeconomic shifts and investing for where the market will be six months, one year, or five years into the future.

What I was reading and watching this week

I’ve been reading Wealth, War, and Wisdom by Barton Biggs, which explores how war drives historical market cycles. Biggs highlights how financial markets during WWII consistently predicted wartime outcomes ahead of the headlines.

We’re seeing that exact same dynamic play out today. The energy markets started rallying long before the conflict in Iran escalated. Ultimately, price is truth—the market and the machine pick up on these macro shifts early, pricing in reality before it happens.

ISM Manufacturing Index- The May 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI delivered a strong headline beat at 54.0%, marking its fifth consecutive month of expansion and reaching its highest level since May 2022. This acceleration was driven by a sharp rise in the New Orders index to 56.8% and steady production momentum at 54.3%, signaling robust factory demand despite customer inventories remaining depleted for the twentieth straight month. However, structural inflation pressures remain deeply entrenched; the Prices-Paid index printed at a blistering 82.1%, fueled by sticky supplier delivery delays and escalating geopolitical risk. In the survey commentary, forty-two percent of respondents explicitly flagged the ongoing conflict in Iran and supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz as direct threats to energy and raw material cost stability. Meanwhile, manufacturing labor remains a primary bottleneck, with the Employment index contracting for the thirty-second consecutive month at 48.6%, underscoring a persistent labor mismatch even as manufacturing demand accelerates heading into the summer.

JOLTS- The April JOLTS report, released on June 2, delivered an unexpected spike in labor demand, with headline job openings surging by 731,000 to a near two-year high of 7.618 million, soundly beating consensus estimates of 6.88 million. However, underlying layers of the data reveal a much tighter, more concentrated dynamic rather than a broad-based hiring boom. The massive monthly increase was driven almost entirely by a single sector—professional and business services, which expanded by 668,000 openings—and heavily skewed toward enterprise conglomerates with over 5,000 employees, while small and mid-sized employers remained relatively flat or negative. Crucially, actual hires decreased to 5.1 million, and the quits rate ticked down slightly to 1.9% (3.0 million total), demonstrating a low-hire, low-fire environment where employers are aggressively listing new technical and logistical roles—partially to navigate the macro fallout from the Iran conflict and supply chain bottlenecks—but workers are increasingly staying put, leaving a widening gap between corporate hiring intent and actual labor delivery.

ISM Services PMI- The May ISM Services PMI, released on June 3, mirrored the manufacturing sector's stagflationary undertones by delivering a headline beat at 54.5%, marking 23 consecutive months of expansion and its strongest pace in three months. Underlying demand remains highly resilient, evidenced by a substantial 3.8-point jump in New Orders to 57.3% and a rise in Business Activity to 57.7%, fueled largely by major infrastructure pipelines and accelerating demand for data center buildouts. However, this robust expansion came alongside a sharp escalation in costs, as the Prices Index ticked up to 71.3%—its highest reading since August 2022—driven by a surge in diesel, gasoline, and broader petroleum-related surcharges tied to ongoing global shipping strains. Parallel to the manufacturing sector, services employment remained a persistent drag, contracting for a third straight month at 47.9% as respondents widely noted corporate hiring freezes and a refusal to backfill vacant roles, cementing a macro backdrop of accelerating demand, sticky services inflation, and an intentionally constrained labor footprint.

NFP- The May Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered a clean, massive upside surprise this morning, printing at +172K new jobs—more than double the consensus expectation of 85K. Far from a one-off fluke, the blowout headline was backed by significant structural strength, as net revisions injected an extra 93K jobs into the March and April data to prove the labor market is firmly out of its winter trough. The unemployment rate held completely steady at 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings matched estimates at a non-inflationary +0.3% MoM (+3.4% YoY), keeping wage growth stable but trailing headline inflation. Hiring was heavily concentrated in cyclical and defensive sectors, led by a summer-ready surge in Leisure and Hospitality (+70K) and steady Local Government expansions (+55K). Ultimately, this print entirely halts the economic cooling narrative and locks in the Federal Reserve's "higher-for-longer" stance; in response, treasury yields immediately surged, the dollar caught a strong bid, and equity index futures flipped into the red as the market completely priced out near-term monetary relief.

The Main Course

Yesterday’s violent market action pulled the air straight out of high-flying chip and compute names, providing a stark reminder of the plumbing mechanics that govern modern markets. Heavily levered multi-manager POD shops were caught off guard and forced into aggressive, systematic de-grossing. When these multi-managers puke their high-beta long positions to protect strict risk parameters, they cannot stop there; they must take down gross exposure across their entire books, which inevitably spills over into any pocket of the market with enough liquidity to absorb the volume. It is a classic showcase of the market axiom that leverage always travels up the escalator but takes the elevator down.

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What I was reading and watching this week

I’ve started a new book this week: Wealth, War and Wisdom by the legendary Barton Biggs. Although it was published nearly two decades ago, its core thesis feels incredibly relevant in today’s environment. We are currently navigating a significant "war overhang" that is distorting asset prices across almost every sector. Biggs provides a masterclass on how geopolitical conflict reshapes markets, illustrating through history how specific nations emerged from periods of chaos either fundamentally strengthened or permanently diminished. It’s a timely reminder that while history doesn't repeat, it certainly rhymes—especially when it comes to the intersection of global conflict and capital preservation.

CPI- showed that annual inflation accelerated to 3.8%, up from 3.3% in March and slightly above consensus expectations of 3.7%. Monthly headline inflation rose 0.6%, driven primarily by a persistent oil shock that pushed energy costs up 17.9% year-over-year—with gasoline prices specifically jumping over 28%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also ticked higher to 2.8% annually (0.4% monthly), fueled by normalization in shelter and rent data following last year's collection gaps. Overall, the "hotter than expected" print signals that inflationary pressure remains sticky, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on a cautious, "higher-for-longer" path as the market continues to price in the effects of ongoing energy volatility.

PPI- released this week (May 13) added further pressure to the "higher-for-longer" narrative. Wholesale prices jumped 0.7% for the month, significantly overshooting the 0.3% consensus estimate. The primary driver was a sharp spike in the "Goods" component, which surged 1.2%, largely reflecting the same energy-related volatility seen in the consumer data. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) also rose a firm 0.5%, suggesting that sticky input costs are beginning to work their way through the entire supply chain. For the markets, this back-to-back heat in inflation data suggests that producer margins are being squeezed by the very "real assets" (energy and materials) that you’ve been tracking, further complicating any hopes for a Federal Reserve pivot in the near term.

Retail Sales- report shows a consumer that is resilient but slowing under the weight of surging energy costs. Headline sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, matching expectations but decelerating significantly from March’s revised 1.6% jump. The primary driver was once again the pump, with gasoline station sales up 2.8% following the previous month's massive 13.7% spike. However, the "control group"—which filters out volatile categories like autos and gas and is used to calculate GDP—rose a solid 0.5%, beating the 0.4% forecast and suggesting that underlying demand remains durable despite the "inflation shock" from the ongoing conflict in Iran.

The Main Course

Most people would be shocked to learn that the S&P 500's upward trajectory this year is essentially a four-man show: SanDisk, Micron, Intel, and Nvidia. If you weren’t trading during the 1999–2001 boom, it’s hard to describe the atmosphere, but I remember it well. I was the college kid skipping class to chase tickers on E*Trade, riding the same wave of euphoria and FOMO currently sweeping the tape. They say history doesn't repeat, but it’s definitely rhyming right now.

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The broader market is treating these shortages with the same complacency we saw in early 2020—everything is ‘fine’ until, suddenly, it’s not. We believe the market isn’t pricing this in; it’s waiting to price it in all at once. At MainSail, we aren’t waiting for the ‘holy shit’ moment. We believe the path to alpha this year lies in the physical reality of energy. We remain high-conviction in our positions across Refiners, LNG infrastructure, and the Fertilizer/Ag complex, where supply-side constraints are finally meeting an immovable wall of demand.

What I was reading and watching this week

Still working through the 'fractals of finance,' and the recurring theme is a wake-up call for the over-leveraged: price action is inherently 'wild,' and the market rarely prices in the full scope of reality. History—especially the wreckage of LTCM—proves that when you try to out-math the market’s randomness with complexity, you usually end up as the liquidity. The fractal nature of the tape tells us that opportunity is always present, but the only sustainable way to capture it is to lean into the 'KISS'- keep it simple stupid principle. We keep the strategy simple because complexity is just a mask for hidden risk.

ISM Services- The Services PMI registered 53.6%, slightly lower than the 54.0% seen in March but marking its 22nd consecutive month of expansion. While Business Activity accelerated to 55.9%, the headline was weighed down by a sharp 7.1-percentage point drop in New Orders (down to 53.5%). Most notably for your macro view, the Prices Index remains stubbornly high at 70.7%, driven by persistent fuel and commodity costs (copper/petroleum), suggesting that services inflation hasn't yet broken.

JOLTS- Labor demand held remarkably steady, with job openings virtually unchanged at 6.9 million, slightly outperforming expectations of 6.86 million. Hires saw a healthy bump to 5.6 million (+655k), more than offsetting the previous month's dip. The "quits" rate remained stable at 3.2 million, indicating that while the labor market isn't as "hot" as 2024, there is still enough confidence for workers to jump ship, keeping the pressure on wages in the services sector.

NFP- The April Nonfarm Payrolls delivered a significant upside surprise, adding 115,000 jobs—nearly double the consensus estimate of 62,000. Despite the robust headline beat, the labor market showed signs of cooling at the edges: the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% month-over-month (missing the 0.3% forecast). On an annual basis, wage growth slowed to 3.6%, which should provide some disinflationary relief to the Fed despite the resilient hiring in healthcare and retail.

Consumer Sentiment- for May plummeted this morning to a record low of 48.2, significantly missing the consensus estimate of 49.5. The report highlights a stark bifurcation in the consumer psyche: while current conditions cratered by 9% (to 47.8) due to soaring gasoline prices and new tariff concerns, the expectations index actually inched up slightly. Crucially for your "War On/War Off" thesis, one-year inflation expectations cooled to 4.5% (from 4.7%) and five-year expectations dipped to 3.4%; however, director Joanne Hsu noted that sentiment is unlikely to recover until Middle East supply disruptions are fully resolved and energy prices retreat from their current peaks.

The Main Course

As we face a 400,000-ton deficit in 2026, I’m reminded of the opening to Thunderstruck. The rhythm of demand is building, and the global grid isn’t ready for the bolt that’s coming. We are positioned in the ‘conductors’—the names that own the physical assets the machine needs to keep the lights on.

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What I was reading and watching this week

Building Permits and Housing Starts- This week's data reveals a bifurcated housing market: building permits remain resilient as developers bet on long-term structural shortages, while housing starts have slowed due to rising labor costs and logistic friction from energy shocks. This growing gap between "authorized" and "started" projects suggests a cautious "wait-and-see" approach by builders facing 3.5%+ interest rates. While single-family construction is propped up by a lack of existing inventory, the broader sector is in a high-friction equilibrium, awaiting a clearer signal on the Fed’s next move.

FOMC Decision- The Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% yesterday, marking Jerome Powell’s final act as Chair with a decisively "neutral" stance. While the decision to hold was unanimous, the accompanying statement highlighted a "lack of further progress" toward the 2% inflation target, largely due to the recent energy price shocks. The Fed effectively signaled that while they are not looking to hike further, the "higher-for-longer" regime is firmly entrenched until the geopolitical volatility in the Middle East subsides and its impact on domestic CPI is fully digested.

PCE- The March personal income and spending data illustrates a consumer base that is surprisingly resilient but increasingly pressured by the "sticky" inflation seen in the PCE print. Personal Income rose by 0.6% in March, a solid beat over the 0.4% consensus, driven by continued wage growth and high employment levels. However, Personal Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures) grew even faster at 0.8%, suggesting that consumers are not yet pulling back despite the 3.5%+ interest rate environment. This "spend-through-the-inflation" behavior is largely focused on services and essential energy costs, which is why we saw the Personal Savings Rate dip to 3.2%, its lowest level in over a year.

The Main Course

For the specialized "POD" shops and market-neutral desks that focus on factor-based shorting, the Avis (CAR) squeeze wasn't just a bad trade—it was a cinematic nightmare brought to life. If the original Dumb Money movie documented the retail rebellion of 2021, the action in CAR over the last two weeks felt like a sequel where the "Groundhog Day" loop reset with even more devastating speed. Despite the sophisticated risk models and automated stops designed to prevent another Melvin Capital-style event, several funds once again found themselves "run over" by a crowd that prioritized narrative and momentum over the underlying rental-market fundamentals.

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Many POD shops, which typically utilize high leverage and tight pair-trade structures, went into those lows with a heavy “Value-over-Growth” bias—specifically Long Energy and Short Tech/Consumer Discretionary. This positioning left them exposed to the “perfect storm” that followed.

What we witnessed in the first two weeks of April was a violent 10% rip to the upside. The velocity of the move was amplified by a “feedback loop” of forced short covering and aggressive buying from systematic funds. This created an incredibly aggressive squeeze, leaving those levered short-tech positions in a difficult spot as the indexes ignored the macro noise and powered higher.

These market flows are driven by pure quantitative mechanics. In a positive gamma environment, dealers and systematic funds act as a stabilizing force, buying the dips to dampen volatility and providing the structural support that drives the market higher. Conversely, when the regime shifts to negative gamma, the script flips: volatility is amplified as these same players are forced to sell into the pops, effectively capping the upside and accelerating the market's move lower.

What I was reading and watching last week

I’ve just started diving into The Fractals of Finance. For anyone currently running money, I’d consider this essential reading—and a book worth revisiting frequently. While I’ve read Mandelbrot’s technical work in the past, this particular volume does an incredible job of translating complex fractal geometry into layman’s terms specifically for the financial world. It strips away the academic density to reveal the underlying "roughness" of markets that standard bell-curve models fail to capture.

Retail Sales- report released, Tuesday, April 21, 2026, showed a significant 1.7% surge in March, far outstripping the expected 1.4% gain. This marks the strongest monthly growth in over three years, primarily driven by a record 15.5% spike in gasoline station receipts due to the ongoing conflict in Iran. However, the strength was broad-based; even when excluding autos and gasoline, sales grew by a solid 0.6%, supported by resilient consumer demand and larger-than-usual tax refunds. Notably, core "control group" sales—which feed directly into GDP calculations—rose 0.7%, suggesting that the U.S. economy maintains strong momentum despite the energy shock and high interest rates.

The Side Dish

Due to a heavy schedule of calls and meetings this week, I’m getting to my note a bit later than usual. However, the delay provided extra time to distill the two dominant themes that emerged from those discussions:

1. AI will bring down inflation: The long-term case for AI as a deflationary force will fundamentally rewire the cost of production. By automating complex tasks and driving massive gains in operational efficiency, AI allows companies to maintain—or even increase—output with significantly lower overhead. This shift creates a two-pronged downward pressure on inflation: first, the "efficiency gain" lowers the marginal cost of goods and services; and second, the resulting labor displacement cools wage-push inflation. As AI reduces the dependency on a high-cost human workforce, that could finally subdue the stubbornly persistent inflation we’ve seen in this "higher for longer" era.

2. The Employment Shield: The prevailing consensus suggests that a meaningful market correction is effectively off the table until we see a significant, material shift in employment data. As long as the labor market remains this tight, it provides a structural floor for the economy that offsets broader macroeconomic headwinds. This resilience is further amplified by relentless passive flows; as long as people remain employed and their 401(k) contributions continue to hit the tape, this mechanical bid will continue to prop up the market and drive it higher, regardless of fundamental "noise."

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The catalyst was a textbook ‘Liquidity Trap.’ Funds were heavily net-short and positioned too bearishly coming into April; when the squeeze triggered, the reversal was violent and mechanical. As a capital manager, this reinforces a critical lesson in the current regime: The ‘short’ has never been more dangerous to hold. In an era of dealer gamma and concentrated inflows, a fundamental thesis can be blown up overnight by a technical squeeze. We remain disciplined, recognizing that while the ‘magical buyers’ have won this round, the divergence between paper assets and the real economy is only widening.

What we have witnessed since the beginning of April is effectively a ‘Black Swan’ on the short side. Market history is rarely this unforgiving; this represents the most violent V-bottom recovery from an 8% drawdown in the modern era. To find a comparable ‘rip’ from these technical lows, you have to look back nearly 75 years to the 1950s.

This isn’t just a rally—it is a complete dislocation of the short-term tape from the underlying macro climate. While the ‘Physical Reality’ of $80+ oil and 3.3% inflation remains, the ‘Paper Reality’ has been dominated by a historically anomalous short squeeze. As navigators, we recognize that while these tail-risk events are rare, they are exactly why we prioritize the ‘Steering Wheel’ over rigid conviction. We respect the price action, even when it defies seven decades of precedent.

“Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.” — Charlie Munger

Great quote from the late Charlie Munger: ‘Life, in part, is like a poker game wherein you have to learn to quit sometimes when holding a much-loved hand.’ In the markets, when everyone is holding the exact same hand—piled into the same names with the same conviction—you have reached the peak of social proof and the doorstep of mean reversion.

We saw this play out vividly at the end of 2025. The ‘software-as-a-safe-haven’ trade became the most crowded hand in the market, with valuations for names like Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow detaching entirely from their fundamental gravity. When the ‘Software Apocalypse’ hit in Q1 2026, those beloved holdings fell 25% to 30% almost overnight as the market recalibrated for AI disruption and valuation risk.

What I was reading and watching this week

While I have a few promising titles on my radar, I haven’t quite had the bandwidth to dive into a new book yet; April has proven to be an exceptionally busy month for the fund.

On the macro front, the economic calendar is relatively light this week, but let’s be honest: the market has a singular focus right now. Everyone is watching Crude Oil every single day to gauge the next leg of the cycle. Whether it’s the ‘Magical Buyers’ in the S&P 500 looking for a disinflationary signal or the ‘Energy Security’ pod bracing for a supply shock, the barrel is the steering wheel for global risk appetite.

The Main Course

The more I observe this tape, the more it feels like we’ve entered the final, frantic act of Uncut Gems. For those who haven’t seen the film, the plot follows Howard Ratner—a high-strung Diamond District jeweler—and his desperate attempt to flip a rare Ethiopian black opal to NBA star Kevin Garnett to clear his mounting debts with dangerous loan sharks.

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Regarding the "TACO Tuesday" ceasefire, the market's immediate relief sell-off overlooks a critical reality: reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not as simple as a diplomatic headline. Even if the U.S. were to withdraw its fleet tomorrow, the conflict remains a multi-party powderkeg, as Israel is unlikely to cease its campaign against Iranian assets, ensuring the region remains a live combat zone. Furthermore, the IRGC has mastered the use of low-cost, asymmetric warfare; by deploying "drone swarms" and cheap sea mines, they can effectively paralyze global shipping and keep insurance premiums at prohibitive levels indefinitely. Until a resolution is reached that addresses these drone threats and includes a verifiable stand-down by all regional actors, we expect energy prices to remain structurally elevated with significant volatility persisting through the spring and summer.

What I was watching and reading this week

ISM Services PMI- report highlighted a deepening stagflationary rift within the economy, as the headline figure cooled to 54% while internal metrics signaled extreme stress. The "Prices Paid" component erupted to 70.7%, a massive 7.7-point jump driven by the energy shock and $110+ crude prices, marking one of the steepest inflationary spikes in recent years. Critically, while "New Orders" remained resilient at 60.6%, the "Employment" index collapsed into contraction territory at 45.2%, suggesting that businesses are aggressively pulling back on hiring to protect margins against soaring input costs. This combination of persistent demand, supply chain friction due to the Middle East conflict, and a sharp pivot toward labor cost-cutting reinforces the transition toward a defensive, late-cycle environment where pricing power is the only true shield.

Durable Goods- report for February/March highlights a widening gap between a struggling aerospace sector and a surprisingly resilient industrial base. While the headline figure fell by 1.4%, the decline was almost entirely fueled by a 28.6% plunge in non-defense aircraft orders; when stripping out the volatile transportation segment, core orders actually rose by 0.8%, beating market expectations. This resilience is tempered, however, by a sharp 7.4% drop in non-defense capital goods (excluding aircraft), a key proxy for business investment that suggests rising energy costs and high interest rates are finally forcing companies to tighten their belts on major expansion projects. Despite this cooling in new investment, a massive $924 billion backlog in unfilled orders continues to provide a vital buffer for the industrial sector, ensuring that freight volumes and production schedules remain supported even as the broader "CapEx" environment turns more cautious.

CPI- report delivered a decisive validation of a stagflationary "Quad 3" environment, with headline inflation accelerating violently to 3.3% year-over-year. This 0.9% monthly surge—the largest since mid-2022—was fueled primarily by a 10.9% explosion in energy costs, reflecting the real-world impact of the ongoing Middle East volatility. While the "magical buyers" have attempted to prop up the equity tape, the underlying data shows that energy prices are now leaking into Core CPI, which ticked up to 2.7% as transportation and shelter costs refuse to cool. This report effectively kills the "Fed pivot" narrative for the first half of 2026, suggesting that the "higher-for-longer" interest rate reality will persist as the rate of change in inflation now significantly outpaces economic growth.

The Main Course

With many investors feeling like Tom Hanks on a desert island, the isolation of the current market is setting in. We are stranded in a Stagflationary “Quad 3”—a cycle defined by rising inflation and slowing growth—clinging to the few “coconuts” that still provide sustenance. The primary dilemma is whether to stay hunkered down on the beach or build a raft and prepare for the inevitable shift in the tide.

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What an insane finish to the UConn-Duke game yesterday. Growing up watching UConn—from the Ray Allen vs. Allen Iverson battles to Kemba Walker’s legendary 2011 run—I’ve seen some incredible basketball, but that Braylon Mullins logo-three was on another level.

I was lucky to catch it on a big screen after rushing from my son’s lacrosse practice to the restaurant for dinner. Trailing by 19 and then winning it with 0.4 seconds left is pure March Madness. Mullins has officially etched himself into UConn lore, and the path is now set for a potential third ring in four years as they head to Indy to face Illinois.

After reading Hurley’s book, Never Stop, I fully understand why his players believe in the process and love the guy. He’s spent part of his life in the “hell-hole of suffering” (as he calls it), and that intensity is why the championships keep piling up in Storrs. Love him or hate him, he is objectively one of the best to ever do it.

What I was watching and reading last week

Bunch of data out this week including the NFP number that was released yesterday on good Friday when the markets were closed.

JOLTS- February JOLTS report confirms the "low-hire, low-fire" stagnation, with job openings sliding to 6.88 million—down from a revised 7.24 million in January and slightly missing the 6.92 million consensus. The most concerning data point for the broader SPY is the hires rate, which cratered to 3.1%, matching the April 2020 COVID-19 lows and marking the weakest hiring environment since 2011. Quits also ticked down to 2.97 million (a 1.9% rate), signaling that workers have lost the confidence to "jump ship" as the ratio of openings to unemployed persons has now fallen below 1.0. While layoffs remain historically low at 1.7 million, this data captures the economy before the March oil spike and Hormuz escalation; the "stuck in neutral" February read suggests the labor market had already lost its buffer before the current energy shock hit.

Retail Sales- report released on Wednesday beat expectations across the board, showing a resilient consumer with a 0.6% headline increase (against the 0.4%–0.5% consensus) and an upwardly revised January print. This rebound was driven by a 1.2% surge in motor vehicles and parts and a solid 0.5% gain in the retail control group (the core metric used for PCE), signaling that the consumer wasn't "broken" entering the March energy shock. The sub-surface data is the real story: while 10 of 13 categories posted gains, the data reflects a pre-blockade world. With the SBA Grocery Guarantees just now hitting and gasoline prices up significantly since these numbers were recorded, this "beat" likely represents the cycle's peak before the current stagflationary pressure from the Iran conflict begins to bite into discretionary margins.

ISM Manufacturing PMI- The March ISM Manufacturing report released this morning (April 1, 2026) is the "Inflationary Expansion" print that validates your rotation into the Energy Island. While the headline PMI of 52.7 indicates a third month of expansion, the sub-index data reveals a massive divergence between growing production and soaring input costs. A 7.8-point jump in Prices Paid (now at 78.3) confirms that the $100+ oil and the Hormuz blockade have fully permeated the industrial supply chain. Manufacturers are paying significantly more for energy and raw materials (steel/aluminum) just as they are trying to rebuild inventories.

The Main Course

The paradox of gold selling off during a major war is exactly what we saw in the early stages of the 2008 and 2020 crises. As a fund manager, you know the old adage: “In a crisis, you don’t sell what you want to sell; you sell what you can sell.”

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While I was away for spring break last week, the escalation with Iran kept me closer to my laptop than I’d planned. Given the structural shift in the energy markets and the implications for the portfolio, staying connected was the only way to stay ahead of the volatility.

What I was watching and reading this week

Working through The Gift of Violence by Matt Thornton right now. It’s a great study on the paradox of channeling violence while maintaining restraint, though his reoccurring theme of global stability feels a bit ironic given the war that just broke out with Iran.

On the economic side, we’re in the ‘eye of the storm’ this week. However, the April release of March’s CPI and PPI data will likely be some fireworks. With whispers of a 3.25% YOY print—representing an 84bp jump—we’re looking at a serious inflationary acceleration that will hit Main Street hard across every line item.

The Main Course

If you think you have a handle on what’s unfolding in the Middle East right now, do yourself a favor and read this breakdown by Radigan Carter. His perspective from the ground adds a layer of reality that the headlines are completely missing.

Carter’s take is that the structural damage is already done. He sees any 'resolution' as a hollow victory that ultimately forces the Fed’s hand: slashing rates and reigniting the stimulus spigot once the system buckles this summer. While Trump managed to jawbone the markets into a relief rally on Monday, these tactical 'pauses' don't address the underlying wreckage. Until there's a real solution with Iran, the market's 'optimism' is just a delay of the inevitable.

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