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The S&P 500 surged 3.6% to a record close of 7,757.64, marking its best week since April. Bessent helped ignite a massive squeeze on Tuesday after hinting at the potential for QE while also suggesting the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within days. Those headlines provided another boost to an already strong market.

Earnings have also remained a major tailwind. With more than 85% of the S&P 500 having reported, Q2 earnings growth is tracking near 48%,roughly double expectations heading into the season,while the earnings beat rate remains above 85%.

Economic Calendar this week:

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The S&P 500 posted its first negative July since 2014 following a highly volatile week. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-3 decision to hold rates, with three members dissenting in favor of a hike, while a confusing press conference pushed the 30-year Treasury yield above 5.19%, its highest level in 19 years, and triggered the Dow’s worst daily decline since April 2025. Meanwhile, AI spending remains a major market focus, with hyperscalers now guiding to a combined $720–745 billion in 2026 capital expenditures. Investors are increasingly rewarding companies that can clearly monetize those investments while becoming more selective toward those with less proven AI returns.

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Prior week recap: SPX closed Friday 6/26 at 7,354.02, the worst week in months. The Nasdaq did the real damage, −4.6% on the week and a fifth straight losing session into Friday; the Dow actually rose ~0.6%, a rotation week, not a wholesale liquidation. We enter the new week below the 7,400 gamma flip, into a holiday-shortened jobs week, with VIX back to ~19.

Economic Calendar this week:

• Mon 6/29 — No noteworthy data. Quarter-end / half-year-end positioning; first session after Friday’s Russell reconstitution.

• Tue 6/30 — Month-end, quarter-end, H1-end — watch rebalancing flows. Data: Chicago PMI (June) and Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June).

• Wed 7/1 — Q3/H2 begins. ADP private payrolls (June, 8:15AM), S&P Global final mfg PMI (9:45AM), ISM Manufacturing PMI (June, 10AM), JOLTS job openings (May, 10AM), Construction Spending. Warsh speaks on a panel at the ECB’s Sintra forum.

• Thu 7/2 — 8:30AM: June jobs report (consensus ~172K NFP, unemployment ~4.3%), plus weekly jobless claims, trade balance, and factory orders.

• Fri 7/3 — MARKETS CLOSED.

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Prior week recap: SPX closed Thursday 6/18 at 7,500.58 (+0.9% on the holiday-shortened week — its 11th green week in 12). Wednesday was the hawkish-Fed gut-punch (−1.2%, worst “Fed day” for a new chair since 1994); Thursday ripped it all back as chips led and the U.S.–Iran interim deal sank oil. Markets were closed Friday 6/19 for Juneteenth. We enter the new week sitting right on the 7,500 call wall, pressing the old all-time high, into a hot inflation print.

Economic Calendar this week:

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Economic Calendar this week:

• Mon 6/8 — No major data. Apple WWDC keynote (event runs 6/8–6/12); single-name catalyst for the AI/Nasdaq bucket.

• Tue 6/9 — Quiet on hard data; positioning day into CPI.

• Wed 6/10 — CPI + Core CPI (May), 8:30AM. THE key macro print of the week — the inflation read that replaced jobs as the market’s main worry. Energy-driven; some desks (Wells Fargo) model ~+0.5% MoM headline / ~+4.2% YoY off the Iran-war energy lift. Last major inflation read before the June FOMC.

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Economic Calendar this week:

• Mon 6/1 — ISM Manufacturing PMI + S&P Global Mfg PMI final (10AM), Construction Spending (10AM).

• Tue 6/2 — JOLTS Job Openings (10AM).

• Wed 6/3 — ADP National Employment (8:15AM), ISM Services PMI (10AM), Fed Beige Book (2PM). Biggest earnings night of the week after close: Broadcom (AVGO), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Veeva, Medtronic.

• Thu 6/4 — Initial Jobless Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, Trade Balance, Q1 Productivity/Unit Labor Costs final (all 8:30AM).

• Fri 6/5 — Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate (8:30AM). The key number of the week — this is the PCE-replacement event.

SPX levels

Resistance

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Economic Calendar this week:

• Mon 5/25 — Memorial Day, US markets closed. Watch oil + Iran headlines overnight; thin futures trade could impact Tuesday’s open.

• Tue 5/26 — Markets reopen. Consumer Confidence (10AM), Philly Fed Non-Mfg (10AM), Dallas Fed (10:30AM).

• Wed 5/27 — New Home Sales + Richmond Fed (10AM). Big earnings after close: Salesforce, Marvell Technology, Snowflake, Synopsys, Dick’s Sporting Goods. MRVL = AI silicon read, CRM = software/AI demand test.

• Thu 5/28 — Biggest day of the week. Q1 GDP 2nd Estimate, Personal Income, PCE, Durable Goods, Claims all at 8:30AM. Core PCE is the key number. Earnings after close: Dell Technologies, Costco, MongoDB, Best Buy, Autodesk, Dollar Tree, Gap Inc.. PCE + DELL/COST likely drive peak vol for the week.

• Fri 5/29 — Quiet data calendar. Thin liquidity + month-end rebalancing flows could create outsized moves.

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SPX printed a fresh all-time high of 7,517.12 Thursday before unwinding to 7,408.50 Friday. Week-over-week barely positive at +0.13%, but still 7th straight winning week. The selling concentrated in mega-cap AI and rate-sensitive infrastructure — NVDA, Tesla, Amazon, Oracle, Alphabet down up to 4%, Intel -5%, AMD -3%, MU -4%. VIX 18.43 (+6.78% Friday), first close above 18 in weeks. Front-month/back-month curve flattened materially.

Economic Calendar this week:

• Monday 5/18 — Quiet start. Focus on housing/survey data and any weekend Iran/oil headlines impacting futures.

• Tuesday 5/19 — ADP + housing data. Watch mortgage-rate sensitivity. HD earnings give consumer/homeowner read.

• Wednesday 5/20 — Biggest day of the week. FOMC Minutes at 2 PM, then NVIDIA earnings after close..

• Thursday 5/21 — Heavy macro morning: Housing Starts, Claims, Philly Fed, PMI. Walmart earnings are key for consumer trends; Deere important for ag/tariff read.

• Friday 5/22 — Final UMich Sentiment + inflation expectations at 10 AM. Thin liquidity expected into Memorial Day weekend.

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SPX closed Friday at a fresh all-time high of 7,398.93, capping a sixth straight winning week (+2.3%) — the longest weekly streak since 2024. NDX outperformed at +4.5% on the week behind a monster AMD reaction.VIX closed at 17.19, holding in the mid-teens for a third straight week. Dow lagged again (+0.2% on the week), the equal-weight/cap-weighted divergence persists, and breadth remains a watch item.

Economic Calendar this week: This is a pure inflation/consumer week.

Monday 5/11 — Quiet open. NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations at 11:00 AM. Senate likely takes up the Warsh Fed Chair confirmation this week — headline risk on timing/margin.

Tuesday 5/12 — CPI (April) at 8:30 AM ET. Headline expected ~0.3% MoM / 3.2% YoY; Core ~0.3% MoM / 2.7% YoY. March printed hot (+0.9% headline, energy-led). The market needs softer energy passthrough and a contained shelter print to confirm the disinflation narrative the Fed has been resisting. NFIB Small Business Optimism at 6:00 AM.

Wednesday 5/13 — PPI (April) at 8:30 AM ET. Final demand expected ~0.2% MoM. Core PPI feeds into the PCE bridge, so the components matter more than headline — specifically portfolio management fees and healthcare services. EIA crude at 10:30 AM.

Thursday 5/14 — Retail Sales (April) at 8:30 AM ET. Headline expected ~0.2%; control group is the read for the Q2 GDP nowcast. Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM. Empire State Mfg (May) at 8:30 AM. Industrial Production / Capacity Util at 9:15 AM. Fed speakers: Williams, Barkin, Kashkari throughout the day.

Friday 5/15 — Housing Starts / Building Permits at 8:30 AM. Import/Export Prices at 8:30 AM. UMich Consumer Sentiment (prelim) at 10:00 AM — 1Y and 5–10Y inflation expectations matter most; the 5–10Y print has been the most-cited indicator in recent FOMC minutes. Monthly opex Friday.

SPX levels

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SPX closed Friday at a fresh all-time high of 7,230.12, capping a fourth straight strong week and one of the most consequential earnings/Fed weeks of the year. The S&P finished April with a +10% monthly gain, the best calendar month for the index in five years. VIX collapsed to ~16.99 by Friday’s close, which is now below the 200DMA and at the lowest reading since February. Since the March 30 low, SPX has rallied ~1,000 points in a near-vertical move, one of the cleanest V-shapes in the post-COVID era.

Economic Calendar this week: The macro calendar lightens considerably after last week’s deluge — but Friday’s NFP is delayed-month payrolls and will carry outsized weight given Fed positioning.

Monday 5/4 — Quiet open. Factory Orders (March) and Durable Goods Orders final at 10:00 AM ET.

Tuesday 5/5 — S&P Global Services PMI final at 9:45 AM, then ISM Services PMI (April) at 10:00 AM ET. ISM Services has been the most reliable read on the consumer/services side; March came in at 54.0, marking 21 straight months of expansion. With energy prices passing through, the prices-paid component matters as much as headline. Services has been the buffer keeping the broader economy out of contraction even as manufacturing softens.

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SPX closed Friday at a new all-time high of 7,165, marking a third straight strong week. Gains were modest (+0.5%), but beneath the surface there was major rotation: Nasdaq surged on a massive Intel earnings beat that lifted semis, while the Dow lagged as oil stayed firm in the mid-$90s. VIX eased to 18.71. Since the March 30 low, SPX has rallied 800+ points in one of the fastest V-shaped rebounds in years.

Economic Calendar this week: This is one of the busiest macro weeks of the entire year. Four major central banks meet, GDP and PCE both print, and ISM Manufacturing closes the week.

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SPX closed Friday at 7,126.06, capping a historic week that saw the index fresh all-time highs.The move was driven by continued relief around Middle East tensions, a sharp collapse in oil prices, and strong risk appetite as investors rotated aggressively back into growth and cyclical names.

But the weekend flipped the script again. Saturday 4/18, Iran reclosed the Strait in response to Trump keeping the US naval blockade on Iranian ports in place. Weekend oil markets are indicating +6–8% reopen pressure, and S&P futures are pointing to a ~1% gap down at Sunday night’s open. For the second week in a row, we start digesting a weekend tape bomb after a bullish Friday close except this time we’re doing it from a newly minted ATH.

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SPX closed Friday above 6800, capping a week that saw the index surge +3.56%, its best weekly performance since November. Stocks rallied sharply early in the week on relief surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire and a pullback in oil prices. The 200-day moving average has now been decisively reclaimed. Volatility collapsed further, with VIX closing at 19.12 — down from 23.87 the prior week, completing the full retreat from the 31+ spike seen two weeks ago. The short-gamma environment is easing, but vol is not dead as headline risk remains elevated heading into a heavy earnings week.

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SPX closed Thursday at 6,582.69, finishing the shortened holiday week up 3.4% — its strongest weekly gain in months. The move was initially driven by quarter-end rebalancing flows on Monday, with momentum carrying into the start of April. Volatility cooled meaningfully, with VIX closing at 23.87 — down sharply from last week’s 31+ spike. While mean reversion is underway, vol remains elevated enough to support continued two-way price action.

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SPX closed at 6,369, down ~2.2% from last Friday’s 6,506 and confirming a clean break below the 200-day moving average. Selling pressure was broad and persistent.Volatility picked up notably, with VIX pushing above 30 for the first time since late 2025. Growth signals also softened, as Flash PMIs disappointed and Consumer Confid…

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SPX closed the week at 6,506, down roughly 1.5% on Friday and about 1% on the week. The index also broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since late 2025, a notable technical shift. The expected post-FOMC vol crush failed to spark a sustained rally, and while the Fed held rates as expected, a more hawkish dot plot added downside pressure. Meanwhile, oil remains elevated as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist, keeping stagflation concerns in play and capping any meaningful risk-on bounce.

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SPX closed the week at the lows after failing at key 6780–680 resistance, leaving a bearish weekly candle. Markets remain driven largely by geopolitical conflict in the middle east which is driving up oil prices.SPX is now closed to 200D which could be area that act as a potential bounce zone as quarterly OPEX approaches and VIX expiration on 3/18, with the market already statistically oversold (NYMO near -88) .

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Economic Calendar for the week:

The market heads into the first week of March in clear risk-off mode, with the VIX holding near 20 amid escalating Middle East tensions. Geopolitical risk will remain a central theme, but volatility could intensify further with Friday’s jobs report and Broadcom earnings, both of which have the pote…

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Economic Calendar for the week:

The market heads into the first week of March in clear risk-off mode, with the VIX holding near 20 amid escalating Middle East tensions. Geopolitical risk will remain a central theme, but volatility could intensify further with Friday’s jobs report and Broadcom earnings, both of which have the potential to significantly shift sentiment and direction.

Key Macro Catalysts

• Mon: Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing

• Tue: Auto sales

• Wed: ADP jobs, Services PMI, ISM Services, Crude Inventories, Beige Book

• Thu: Productivity, Labor Costs, Jobless Claims, Factory Orders

• Fri: Nonfarm Payrolls

Earnings That Matter for Risk Sentiment

• CrowdStrike – Cyber/AI software (Tue PM)

• Broadcom – AI infrastructure (Wed)

• Costco – Consumer demand signal (Thu)

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