I was talking trading with my brother this week. He’s been following along with the podcast and studying up on trend following, and our conversation got me thinking about two things I think most traders struggle with, and possibly the reason so many blow accounts — myself included.

Overtrading and consistency.

Two pretty simple ideas. But probably two of the harder concepts in trading to actually get right.

The first is this feeling that you always have to be doing something. Put on a trade, take one off, move a stop, add a volume indicator, or rethink a strategy.

I can remember how, on the trading floor, we used to joke about traders who felt like they always had to have a position on. We’d say:

Don’t just do something, stand there stupid.

When I first started trading, like many, my tendency was to overtrade. I used to blame it on my mother and my early childhood. As one of five kids, she was a very busy woman and was always telling us to go do something. Go play. Go to school. Run to the store for her. Basically, leave her alone because she had stuff to do.

As a result, as a trader, I always felt like I had to “do something.”

But I learned early in my trading career that the less I traded, the better I did.

It reminds me of a poker game I played years ago with a bunch of old-timers I really looked up to. Some were retired traders from the floor. Really intelligent guys, and fairly wealthy at that. I didn’t have the kind of stake these guys brought to the table, so I had to be a bit more conservative.

I folded. A lot.

I used to joke with them, “When I’m in, you know I’m winning.”

At some point I started wondering if I was playing too conservatively. I was folding hand after hand while sitting there with guys who had a lot more money on the table than I did.

Then I started watching them.

They were folding too.

It wasn’t that I was playing too conservatively. I was playing the cards I was dealt. I wasn’t supposed to be in the hands I had folded.

I wasn’t gambling. Again, I was playing the cards I was dealt.

I remember one of the guys at that table, Seymour, and how he also bet the horses. The guys used to talk about how he was the only guy they knew who could go to the racetrack and not place a bet.

If the odds weren’t in his favor, he had the discipline to go home without a single wager.

He was a handicapper, not a gambler.

I’d argue most traders are gamblers.

Then there’s consistency.

This was the second part of the conversation with my brother.

You can have a system. You can have rules. You can have a methodology that makes perfect sense on paper.

But can you actually follow it?

One of the things I’ve come to appreciate during my own journey toward becoming a more systematic, rules-based trend follower is the importance of executing the same approach consistently, without fail.

Always.

Every time.

No matter what.

As traders, we have a tendency to look at each trade as its own event. We have a profitable trade and think we did something right. The next trade’s a loser and we immediately start wondering what we should have done differently.

Change this. Tweak that. Skip the next one.

Pretty soon you’re not really following anything.

You’re just making a new decision every time.

You might as well be throwing darts.

Through my work with Jerry and the podcast, I’ve come to appreciate a very simple idea: even a mediocre system, if followed consistently over time, will more often than not do better than a random discretionary approach.

Simple.

And I think that’s where these two ideas come together.

You don’t always have to trade. And when you do trade, there should be a reason you’re doing it.

I’m not going to try to tell you how to get over your hang-ups with overtrading or how to become more consistent. That’s not what’s intended here.

Those are your demons to battle.

Trading is personal, and you’re going to have to find your own solutions.

I’m just suggesting these are two areas worth putting some time and energy into. They’ve become increasingly important to me over the last couple of years as I’ve worked toward becoming a more systematic, rules-based trend follower.

Maybe just heighten your awareness of them.

I’m just suggesting they’re questions worth asking.

Sometimes improving as a trader may have less to do with finding something new and more to do with looking within and becoming aware of what you’re already doing.

There may not be a perfect way to do it.

That sounds strange when you’re talking about systematic trading. You’d think the whole point of having a system is finding the right answer.

But sometimes there are several perfectly reasonable answers.

Take a breakout.

Do you enter when it occurs intraday? On the close? The following morning?

Jerry’s point was that over the long run, there may not be much difference.

What’s more important is deciding how you’re going to do it — and then doing it that way consistently.

That led to one of my favorite exchanges from the episode.

I said:

“It’s not necessarily that the system is magical. What’s magical is the consistency and the approach.”

Jerry’s response:

“Yes, exactly.”

Do the Hard Thing

Jerry also brought up an old Richard Dennis saying:

“Do the hard thing. Do the right thing.”

And another version Jerry recently posted:

“Choose the hard right over the easy wrong.”

That’s particularly relevant to trend following because so much of the process doesn’t feel good.

Taking losses doesn’t feel good. Giving back open profits doesn’t feel good. Buying something that’s already moving higher can feel wrong.

But the goal isn’t to construct a system around what makes us comfortable.

It’s to build and test a process — and then have enough confidence to follow it.

When Things Get Difficult

Jerry talked about going through an extremely difficult trading period years ago. Losses were piling up and even the people around him were getting shaken.

Someone working with him came into his office and essentially said:

It depends on whether you still trust the systems.

That brought everything back to the basics.

Had the methodology stopped making sense? Or were they simply experiencing one of the difficult periods the methodology was built to endure?

Jerry made another point I think is worth remembering:

If the risk becomes too uncomfortable, the answer isn’t necessarily to start changing the system.

Trade smaller.

System Trader First

We also talked about what happens when you start trading after a major trend has already begun.

Gold was our example.

Maybe the breakout happened long before you started. Now you’re looking at the chart thinking the trend looks tired, extended or range-bound.

Jerry made an important distinction:

The highest calling isn’t necessarily to be a trend follower.

It’s to be a system trader.

Once we start applying an “eye test” — this looks tired, this looks too high, this can’t possibly keep going — we’re bringing discretion right back into something designed to remove it.

That’s something I’m increasingly aware of in my own trading.

The rules aren’t particularly complicated.

Following them consistently is the hard part.

And maybe that’s the point.

Episode 6 of Trend & Turtle drops tonight.

We get into entries, breakouts, ATR-based risk, missed trades, backtesting, drawdowns and why consistency matters so much.

Watch Trend & Turtle on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/@TrendAndTurtle

Subscribe here on Substack and follow along. Tomorrow I’m sitting down with Jerry again to continue the conversation.

Process over prediction.

— Ben

Trend & Turtle is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here should be considered investment or trading advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

We’re now five episodes in, and it’s starting to feel like we’re building something.

So if you’re new to Trend & Turtle, here’s where we are.

Episode 1 — From Floor to Shore
The journey begins.

Episode 2 — Becoming a Modern Day Turtle Trader
Process over prediction. Rules over emotion.

Episode 3 — Trend Following Plus Nothing
My move from discretionary trading to a rules-based, systematic approach.

Episode 4 — Position Sizing, Risk, and Letting Profits Run
Risk less. Stay in the trade. Let the market decide.

Episode 5 — Entries, Exits, and the Discipline to Follow the Rules
The rules are simple. Following them isn’t always.

And we’re just getting started.

Episode 6 is being finished now and should be out tonight or tomorrow.

Episode 7 is already recorded and waiting to be edited.

And Friday, I’m sitting down with Jerry Parker again to record Episode 8.

What I like most about where this is going is that the podcast is starting to follow the trading in real time.

I’m taking trades. I’m tracking them. I’m making mistakes. I’m asking questions. And we’re talking about what happens when a systematic approach meets actual markets, actual money and actual emotions.

That’s what I want Trend & Turtle to continue to be.

And that’s also why I’m starting this newsletter.

There are plenty of things that happen between podcast episodes that don’t necessarily need a camera and microphone.

Trades. Observations. Charts. Mistakes. Lessons learned. And sometimes just a thought about the process that’s worth sharing.

That’s what you’ll find here.

If you haven’t watched the podcast yet, you can find all the episodes on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/@TrendAndTurtle

And if you’re already following along, thank you.

There’s a lot more to come.

Process over prediction.

— Ben

Trend & Turtle is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here should be considered investment advice.

I’ve spent most of my adult life around markets.

For more than 25 years, I reported from the trading floors in Chicago and later spent years on television talking about markets every day.

But talking about markets and trading them are two very different things.

When I decided I wanted to trade full-time, I also decided I wanted to do it differently.

Less prediction. Less opinion. More rules.

That decision led me to systematic trend following — and ultimately to Trend & Turtle.

So, what is Trend & Turtle?

It’s an ongoing, firsthand look at my transition from discretionary trading to a systematic, rules-based approach.

I’m trading real markets with real money and following a defined set of rules for entries, exits, position sizing and risk.

Along the way, I’m documenting the process.

The good trades. The bad trades. The mistakes. The drawdowns. The questions. And hopefully a few big trends along the way.

The idea isn’t to tell anyone what to trade.

It’s to show what the process actually looks like.

Why Substack?

Trend & Turtle started as a podcast, and that’s still a big part of it.

But there are plenty of things that happen between episodes.

Trades get triggered. Positions get stopped out. Markets move. Questions come up. And sometimes I learn something worth sharing that doesn’t need a full podcast episode.

That’s what I want this space to be.

A place for shorter updates, observations from the trading process, charts that catch my attention, thoughts on trend following, and new episodes and clips from Trend & Turtle.

No predictions about where the S&P is headed next.

No hot stock picks.

No promises.

Just the process.

If that sounds interesting, subscribe and follow along.

Process over prediction.

— Ben

Trend & Turtle is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here should be considered investment advice.

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