The Buffalo Bills have been at the forefront of Practice Squad usage since this overhaul making the decisions of who is, and who isn’t, on the squad critical. Below we review the 17 player of the Buffalo Bills INITIAL (it will change) Practice Squad.

OFFENSE (9)

Shane Buechele (QB)

Buechele is back with the Bills for his fourth season on the Practice Squad. The are surely upgrades out there for QB3 but Buffalo covets what Buechele means to this team too much to chase a talent upgrade. All reports point to Buechele being an exceptional runner of the scout team with a high football IQ. That benefits both the the Bills defense and Josh Allen when it comes to game preparation, a commodity more valuable than a deep reserve player.

Frank Gore Jr. (RB)

For the past two seasons Frank Gore Jr. has been fighting for an active roster spot in Buffalo. That fight will continue into a third season as Gore is back with the Bills Practice Squad yet again. A darling of Bills Mafia, Gore has consistently showed out during preseason and is currently their primary break glass option at RB. Short of an injury this season it’s unlikely he supplants Cook, Davis, or Johnson but a roster spot could be on the horizon heading into 2027.

Greg Dortch (WR)*

Quite possibly Buffalo’s most important Practice Squad move was bringing in Greg Dortch. The Bills are currently without a quality Punt Returner on their roster, something Dortch remedies. In his seven season NFL career he has returned 99 punts to the tune of an 8.9 yard average. More importantly Dortch has fumbled on Punt Return just 2 times in his career, one muffed and the other a fumble out of bounds. Expect him to get a call up as early as week one as Buffalo’s primary punt returner with upside as a gadget wide receiver. Dortch’s versatility could push Skyler Bell to gameday inactive status.

Trent Sherfield (WR)*

Buffalo added another versatile wide receiver to their Practice Squad in Trent Sherfield. Not his first stint in Buffalo, Sherfield is an above aver special teams coverage player and can contribute on offense primarily as a plus blocker if called upon. His familiarity with Josh Allen among others as well as his special teams likely contributed to his signing.

Stephen Gosnell (WR)

The man some call “GOATnell” is back for year two on the Bills Practice Squad. A UDFA in 2025 Gosnell had to truly fight for this roster spot and is now hoping to walk a similar path as fellow UDFA Tyrell Shavers. It remains to be seen if he will reach the end of that path with 53-man spot in the next couple years but the fan and player favorite is back for another go around.

Ja’Mori Maclin (WR)

Maclin’s preseason performance is the primary reason he is one of the 17 players the Bills signed to their Practice Squad. The UDFA out of Kentucky flashed a unique skillset on route to 4 receptions, 129 yards, and a touchdown. Buffalo is hoping they found a diamond in the rough in Maclin and are willing to spend a Practice Squad spot on him, especially with two established vets on the PS as well.

Nick Broeker (OL)

The 2023 7th round pick of the Bills had a real shot of making Buffalo’s 53-man roster, but the chance of him making his way to the Practice Squad likely resulted in him being in the positon he is in now. Broeker arguably outplayed rookies Ar’maj Reed-Adams and Jude Bowry who were drafted at Pick #241 (R7) and #102 (R4) respectively. This appears to be a savvy move by Brandon Beane to avoid any of his offensive line depth getting poached.

Chase Lundt (OL)

The exact analysis used for Nick Broeker can be applied to Chase Lundt. The major difference being Lundt was drafted in the 6th round of the 2025 draft. Don’t be surprised if one of Broeker or Lundt get a signed to the 53-man roster this season if any level of injury occurs (or has already occurred).

Jedrick Wills Jr. (OL)*

The tenth overall pick by the Cleveland Browns in 2020 is now a member of the Buffalo Bills practice squad. Between 2020 and 2024 Wills started 57 games for the Browns but injuries ultimately took their toll with him missing the entirety of 2025 as he recovered from significant surgery to his leg. Some in Chicago believed he was competing for a starting job so seeing the Bills ink him to a Practice Squad deal is a surprise. When healthy there is talent here, talent enough to provide legit NFL swing tackle ability.

DEFENSE (8)

Geno Stone (SAF)*

Stone visibly struggled in the preseason, failing to impress the Bills enough to earn a 53-man roster spot. As a result Damar Hamlin signed to the 53 as the primary backup safety with Geno Stone signing to the practice squad. A 5 year veteran of the league, Stone still offers value to the Bills who need insurance behind the already banged up Cole Bishop and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. On a true depth char Stone likely sits ahead of rookie Jalon Kilgore as SAF4, as it’s clear the 5th round pick needs some time to acclimate to the NFL.

Kani Walker (CB)

Much to the chagrin of some in Bills Mafia, Kani Walker failed to make the 53-man roster after a metioric rise this offseason. The UDFA out of Arkansas at points looked like the best defensive back on the field making it a foregone conclusion to some that he would be on the gameday roster. His relegation, if you can even call it that, to the Practice Squad is an indication that there are some aspects of his game that need work. And work they will have as Buffalo likely views Walker as a high potential boundary CB that could come in handy with a lack of depth in that role on the roster.

Anthony Kendall (CB)

Since appearing in 17 games for the Titans in 2023, primarily as a Special Teams player, Anthony Kendall has bounced around practice squads. He did enough this preseason, accounting for 3 passes defended, to earn a spot on Buffalo’s 17 man practice squad. It will be a continuous battle for Kendall to stick but at least for now he is one of four defensive backs on Buffalo’s Practice Squad.

Te’Cory Couch (DB)

Te’Cory Couch splashed in the preseason as a versatile defensive back for the Bills. He has a little of that Jordan Hancock in him as a player who can play multiple positions in the secondary. That versatility makes him a valuable asset when running scout teams as well as an emergency option at multiple positions. Nearly 27 years old, Couch’s upside is likely set in stone at this point but his career will continue because he offers value to this iteration of the Buffalo Bills.

Shaq Thompson (LB)*

A significant addition to Buffalo’s 2026 Practice Squad is arguably their best linebacker from 2025. The Bills are in some flux at the position with Terrel Bernard the only bona fide starter on the 53-man roster. Thompson offers them a solid floor if Dorian Williams struggles early and/or Kaleb Elarms-Orr isn’t quite ready for the bright lights of the NFL.

Keonta Jenkins (LB)

A very unique player, Keonta Jenkins hasn’t yet found his place in the NFL. He’s a bit of a tweener who isn’t really a lineback or a safety but something in between. His likely NFL role is a Thiccel (AKA big Nickel), a position the Bills don’t currently have a spot for. Jenkins being added to the Practice Squad affords him the opportunity to continue to refine his skills as a Linebacker with the opportunity to contribute this season if he continues to evolve.

Andre Jones Jr. (DE)

Drafted in 2023, Andre Jones is entering his fourth season in the NFL and has seemingly improved each season. Though he is nearly 28 years old, there is upside here that the Bills have identified making him a player that is valuable on the Practice Squad. Short of injury he likely won’t see the field for the Bills but if called upon he has proven he is capable of competing with NFL level talent.

Travis Clayton (DT)

The Bills used the 221st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Travis Clayton in hopes they had found the next Jordan Mailata. Clayton’s freakish athleticism made him an enticing offensive line prospect, the that athleticism never translated to the football field. This offseason he mad a move to defensive line and continues to stick on Buffalo’s practice squad. Though it’s unlikely he will ever see real action for the Bills the IPP exemption, along with his size, provide Buffalo with a solid body on the scout team.

* Denotes a veteran player. Practice Squads can consist of up to 6 veteran players.

At this point who are the 53 players on the Bills roster? What are their respective roles? And what is the outlook for each in the context of their contribution to the Buffalo Bills success in 2026?

OFFENSE (24)

Quarterbacks (2)

JOSH ALLEN*, KYLE ALLEN

The Buffalo Bills have no reason to roster three quarterbacks, and it could be argued they don’t even need to roster a second. QB1 Josh Allen has cemented himself as the most available quarterback in the NFL entering the season having started 137 consecutive games, the eighth longest streak among quarterbacks in NFL history. More importantly the Buffalo Bills know that no backup has the ability to carry this team in Allen’s stead, leading to them embracing a strategy most notably stated by then Colts offensive coordinator, Tom Moore. Kyle Allen comes in as QB2 to be Allen’s buddy on the practice field and another set of eyes on the sidelines on game day.

Running Backs (3)

JAMES COOK*, RAY DAVIS, TY JOHNSON

The most recent winner of the NFL’s Rushing Title leads Buffalo’s running back room into the season. James Cook will look to improve upon his 2025 with a likely increase in targets through the air facilitated by the mind that unleashed Alvin Kamara, Pete Carmichael. He will be backed up by Ray Davis who has proven to be an adequate running back and All-Pro Kick Returner, as well as Ty Johnson who excels as a blocker. What once was a weakness of the Allen-era Bills has quickly become a strength with Buffalo’s trio of backs ranking amongst the best in the NFL.

Wide Receivers (5)

D.J. MOORE*, KHALIL SHAKIR*, KEON COLEMAN, JOSH PALMER, SKYLER BELL

The Buffalo Bills have been looking for a way to recreate the success they had through the air in 2020. A key to recreating that was finding a duo with a skillset that could match Stefon Diggs and Cole Bishop. Enter D.J. Moore who joins Khalil Shakir after an offseason trade to be the Diggs to Shakir’s Beasley. Those two alone should unlock what at times has been a stagnant air attack while there is some juice in the depth. Keon Coleman still has a lot to prove but has something, Josh Palmer looked good when healthy in 2025 and appears healthy heading into the season, and Skyler Bell has high upside which he flashed in a great performance for the Bills in their third preseason game.

Tight Ends (4)

DALTON KINCAID*, DAWSON KNOX*, JACKSON HAWES, KELEKI LATU

Arguably the biggest shock of the Bills initial 53-man roster was Keleki Latu who was rostered after a strong preseason. But four tight ends seems excessive and suggests there may be a greater plan (or another move) on the horizon. Dalton Kincaid is the clear TE1 in terms of receiver as a player who at times been dominant now heading into his fourth season. Dawson Knox is Buffalo’s most well-rounded TE with solid pass catching ability and blocking prowess to boot. Jackson Hawes proved to be a violent blocker in his rookie season and may even see time as a pseudo-fullback at times this season. Where Latu fits into all of this remains to be seen, but the presence of four tight ends indicates there is something up Joe Brady’s sleeve.

Offensive Line (10)

DION DAWKINS (LT)*, ALEC ANDERSON (LG)*, CONNOR MCGOVERN (C)*, O’CYRUS TORRENCE (RG)*, SPENCER BROWN (RT)*, TYLAN GRABLE (OT), JUDE BOWRY (OT), AUSTIN CORBETT (OG), AR’MAJ REED-ADAMS (OG), LLOYD CUSHENBERRY (C)

Outside of Josh Allen it could be argued that Buffalo’s offensive line is the strength of the team. There will be a bit of turnover heading into 2026 as Alec Anderson is set to replace David Edwards as the Bills Left Guard. Outside of that it’s the same group that has been protecting Allen and Co for the past three seasons; Dawkins at LT, McGovern at Center, Torrence at RG, and Brown at RT. Grable (OT), Corbett (OG), and Cushenberry (C) will be the primary backups with 2026 draft picks Jude Bowry (OT) and Ar’Maj Reed-Adams (OG) rostered for developmental purposes.

DEFENSE (25)

Safeties (4)

COLE BISHOP*, C.J. GARDNER JOHNSON*, JALON KILGORE, DAMAR HAMLIN

There may be some bumps in the road for the Bills safeties this season but the upside provided by Cole Bishop and C.J. Gardner Johnson should be exciting at worst. Their skillsets coupled with the mind of new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard should make for a fun watch with potential game changing moments. Behind them is the high floor, low ceiling, Damar Hamlin and homerun or bust prospect Jalon Kilgore. Look out for Kilgore to get more run as the season goes along as his athleticism alone could make him an asset in specific personnel packages.

Cornerbacks (5)

CHRISTIAN BENFORD*, MAXWELL HAIRSTON*, DEE ALFORD*, DAVISON IGBINOSUN, JORDAN HANCOCK

At the culmination of the Bills final preseason game Joe Brady announced Maxwell Hairston as a starter. That means that heading into the season Benford and Hairston will be Buffalo’s starting boundary corners with Alford their primary nickel. The play of both Igbinosun and Hancock this off-season has been undeniable though, as each flashed the skills necessary to compete on an NFL playing field. Don’t be surprised if each gets some snaps early in the season with the potential to push for more playing time as the year goes on. One concern of note; Benford, Hairston, and Igbinosun are the Bills only true boundary corners with Alford possessing some ability to bounce outside when needed.

Linebackers (4)

TERREL BERNARD*, DORIAN WILLIAMS*, KALEB ELARMS-ORR, JOE ANDREESSEN

The most concerning position group on the Bills roster entering the season is their Linebackers. Terrel Bernard is the only clear starter but is coming off a season where he struggled on the field, possibly due to injuries, possibly due to a regression. After him the question is who will be the primary starter? It could be Dorian Williams on early downs who is an adequate run defender, but struggles against the pass. Maybe the rookie Kaleb Elarms-Orr who impressed this offseason but made a few rookie mistakes during live contest. Or could it be “Buffalo” Joe Andreessen the special teamer who at times in preseason games looked like the best Linebacker on the field. This is the unit to watch, and the unit that could ultimately determine the fate of this defense.

Edge (6)

BRADLEY CHUBB*, GREG ROUSSEAU*, MICHAEL HOECHT, T.J. PARKER, MIKE DANNA, JAVON SOLOMON

The Bills head into the season with what may be their best edge unit since the days of Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes. The duo of Bradley Chubb and Greg Rousseau provide a high upside pass rush via Chubb and elite run stopping ability via Rousseau. Behind them a healthy Michael Hoecht has the potential to be a game wrecker while T.J. Parker will be afforded time to round into an impactful player. Even deeper on the chart Mike Danna is a proven veteran while Javon Solomon has the potential to fit into certain packages or simply be the primary backup for Michael Hoecht.

Defensive Tackles (6)

ED OLIVER*, DEONE WALKER*, GREG GAINES, LANDON JACKSON, T.J. SANDERS, DEWAYNE CARTER

While Buffalo doesn’t possess the true nose tackle that 3-4 defenses traditionally rely on, the upside of this unit may make that not matter. When Ed Oliver is playing at the top of his game he can be a dominating force, something they need him to be this season. Next to him though is the player on the Bills who has the highest potential and by season’s end could be considered the best player on this defense, Deone Walker. Walker still has plenty of work to do to achieve elite status but his flashes from his rookie season suggest those flashes are only going to become more consistent. Behind them depth gets a little tricky with Greg Gaines the veteran option and T.J. Sanders/DeWayne Carter two of the three younger options. The third is Landon Jackson, who underwent a body transformation in a move from edge to interior. He could factor into Buffalo’s rotation as the Bills look for a player who can set the line and help them slow down the run in 2026.

SPECIAL TEAMS (4)

TYLER BASS (K)*, TOMMY DOMAN (P)*, REID FERGUSON (LS)*, SAM FRANKLIN (ST)

Most people/outlets will list this unit as a three person group, but it is clearly manned by four players. Sam Franklin is not a Safety or Linebacker, he is a special teams player, and elite one at that. He enters his second season in Buffalo and will be on the field often with the longest tenured player on the team, Long Snapper Reid Ferguson. Tommy Doman takes over at Punter for the Bills after being selected with the 239th pick in the 2026 draft. He played last season in Florida but the prior three seasons in Michigan meaning he has the experience to contend with the cold weather of Buffalo. Lastly is Tyler Bass who needs to avoid a shaky start to maintain his role as Buffalo’s place kicker. He missed all of last season with an injury and will need to prove early on that he still has the leg to be a key contributor to this team in 2026 and beyond.

RESERVES

TYRELL SHAVERS (WR - PUP), ZANE DURANT (DT - IR), PHIDARIAN MATHIS (DT - SUSP), DORIAN STRONG (CB - NFI)

The Bills have listed four primary players as reserves entering the 2026 season, meaning they do not factor into the 53-man roster. Tyrell Shavers is still rehabbing from his torn ACL and will enter the season on the PUP (Physically unable to perform) list. Rookie Zane Durant was put on short term IR after a late preseason injury meaning he will miss at leas four games while fellow defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis will miss three games due to a substance abuse suspension. Lastly, Dorian Strong’s future remains in flux as he is not set to play in 2026 due to a neck injury. If he physically can return in 2027 remains to be seen.

Kansas City and Cleveland get the Party Started

After moving Trent McDuffie (CB) this offseason Kansas City needed to find a stud in the secondary early in the draft. They assured that by making a move with the Cleveland Browns to go up and get the drafts top corner, Mansoor Delane (CB). In turn they send a 3rd and a 5th to Cleveland who is looking to stack their roster with young talent in an effort to try and successfully rebuild for the first time in a long time.

Dallas and Miami Swap Back-to-Back Spots

Possibly the best player in the NFL Draft was sitting there at Pick #11 and Dallas made the decision to lock him onto their roster. In a position swap with Miami the Cowboys moved up one spot to select Caleb Downs (SAF). In return they send two 5th round picks to Miami who is in the midst on a total rip down and massive rebuild.

A Foreshadowing Divisional Trade

The Philadelphia Eagles make a trade with the Dallas Cowboys that holds a lot of foreshadowing. In exchange for two 4th rounders this season Philly was able to jump up 3 spots and select Makai Lemon (WR), their future WR1. That’s meaningful considering A.J. Brown is currently on their roster, suggesting that the suspected trade to New England is all but a done deal.

Buffalo Looks to Build Later Round Assets

The Buffalo Bills needed more assets in the latter stages of the NFL Draft and found a partner that was willing to help them with that. Houston jumps two spots to select Keylan Rutledge (OG) in exchange for a 22 spot swap in Round 3 as well as another 5th round pick.

Miami Finds Another Trade Partner in San Fran

The Dolphins 2nd trade of the day is a move up to get Chris Johnson (DB). Clearly a player the rebuilding Dolphins covet as they give up 48 spots in Day 2 - Day 3 to make it happen. The 49ers walk away with an additional top 100 pick which should allow them to add yet another impact player to an always competitive roster.

Buffalo with Another Late Round Trade

The Bills continue to stockpile assets, likely to set themselves up for a trade to essentially recoup a Day 2 pick they moved in their trade for D.J. Moore (WR). This time they trade with a Patriots team that should have paid a divisional round tax, but a tax Buffalo was fine with not imposing. In turn the Patriots select Caleb Lomu (OL) with plans to try and protect Drake Maye who was under fire all throughout last season’s playoffs.

Jets Find Value in a Late 1st Round Trade

The Jets end up coming out as the winning team in a late round trade with the 49ers. In another 3 spot move up the Jets assure a 5th year option on Omar Cooper Jr (WR). San Francisco recoups a 5th in a trade that indicates they didn’t view any player as worth drafting late in the 1st round of the draft.

Buffalo Makes a 3rd Trade on Day 1

The Bills clearly didn’t see a difference maker on the board on Day 1 when they were originally set to pick at #26. Three trades later and they will pick at #35 but with a ton of assets to make moves on the final two days of the NFL Draft. In exchange Tennessee goes up and they snag Keldric Faulk (DE) who they hope can be an impact player for years to come.

Expect another article tomorrow after the conclusion of the 2nd Round of the Draft! Also, follow live on twitter @UberHansen as I post live trade evaluations throughout the entire draft!

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DAY 1 TRADE UP: The AFC Rival Jump

If you want the Bills to move up on Day 1 of the NFL Draft don’t expect a ho-hum move, expect fireworks. In a world where a player like Arvell Reese, Carnell Tate, Rueben Bain, or Caleb Downs begins to fall Brandon Beane may be tempted to go on attack mode. That attack would obviously result in the addition of a potential elite talent with the added benefit of keeping said talent off of two contenders. With the Kansas City Chiefs selecting at Pick #9 and the Cincinnati Bengals selecting at Pick #10 a jump ahead of both would be needed to execute his strategy. New Orleans is a long way from competing so acquiring an extra first in 2027 may be enticing enough to make this move happen.

DAY 1 TRADE DOWN: It Takes TWO to Tango

The more likely scenario for a Day 1 Bills trade is a move down. After trading a 2nd Round Pick for D.J. Moore you know Brandon Beane is trying to find a way to get back to three top-100 picks. An unlikely trade partner may emerge in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if the draft falls their way. The loss of Mike Evans looms large for them while there is some intrigue in Baker Mayfield entering the final year of his deal. Could Tampa be looking for a successor to Evans? Could they be looking for an heir apparent to Mayfield? If either are true they may offer Buffalo a package they can’t refuse as they fall back into Day 2 and pick up a 3rd in 2027.

DAY 2 TRADE UP: Seattle is “Draft Poor”

The Seattle Seahawks enter the 2026 NFL Draft with just 4 picks. In the modern NFL where cost control is paramount that is a problem even the defending Super Bowl champions will look to remedy. Buffalo can remedy that situation for Seattle. Assuming Buffalo makes a selection at Pick #26 it would be a long wait before their next pick (#91) comes around. If one of their guys begins to fall late into round two look for them to get on the phones and see if they can’t find a way up. One way up is by sending Seattle multiple picks, remedying their problem in 2026 while possibly netting the Bills a Day 1 starter in the process.

DAY 2 TRADE DOWN: A Surprising Move Back

As the draft rolls on it becomes less and less likely a player Buffalo selects will be an immediate impact player, or even make their 53-man roster. That means that quantity has the potential to trump quality (in the value sense of picks). If we get all the way to Pick #91 and there are no players the Bills view as immediate locks to contribute, a move back could be the play. Swapping spots with a Jaguars team that comes into the draft with 11 picks makes sense here as Jacksonville moves up to acquire a player they view as a starter while the Bills get more lottery tickets to try and cash in on in Day 3.

DAY 3 TRADE UP: Attack Early, Not Often

When Khalil Shakir fell into the 5th round of the 2022 NFL Draft the Bills had to make a move up to go get him. So Buffalo, who had at least a 4th round grade on him, packaged Pick #168 and #203 to move up to Pick #148 and snag him. Buffalo has a history of getting aggressive on Day 3 to move up and get a guy they covet, so why not do it again? Heading into Saturday, after a night of thinking over prospects, don’t be surprised if Buffalo gets aggressive to go after an impact player. In one scenario that means going all the way to the 1st pick of Day 3 in a big pick swap that nets Tennessee a stable of early Day 3 picks and Buffalo a chance at a potential difference maker.

DAY 3 TRADE DOWN: The FOUR Timers Club

The Minnesota Vikings begin Day 3 of the NFL Draft without a 4th round pick. That means on Saturday they will need to wait out 62 selections before they can add another player to their talent devoid roster. If a player starts to fall who the Vikings believe can be a starter for them, Buffalo can leverage it to their benefit. In exchange for a 37 spot fall back the Buffalo’s would net a 2027 fourth rounder. That would leave the Bills with three picks from #163 to #168 as well as an additional 4th rounder in 2027 that could come in handy during next year’s draft…or this year’s trade deadline.

The 2026 league year begins on March 11th at 4:00PM. Before and through then the Bills will add, retain, and lose a large number of players. This article will track all of those moves up until the 2026 NFL Draft on April 23rd.

Bookmark and/or come back to this article regularly for an up to date look at all the moves the Bills make this offseason!

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Buffalo Bills Players Added

Austin Corbett (G/C) - 1yr

[Confirmed by Buffalo Bills - 03/26/26 4:18PM]

Austin Corbett is not a nothing signing. Hypothetically you could slot Corbett in as Buffalo’s starting Left Guard, with Alec Anderson and Tylan Grable still in play there. This signing by Buffalo is a floor raise for the starting OL and an imporvement for Buffalo’s depth. It’s a sneaky good move by Brandon Beane and Co who are looking for their next David Edwards to keep one of the Bills roster strengths intact.

Lloyd Cushenberry (C) - 1yr

[Confirmed by Buffalo Bills - 03/26/26 4:18PM]

Lloyd Cushenberry is by far the most interesting of the players signed by the Bills On March 26th. He isn’t suplanting Connor McGovern as a starter, obviously, but could the veteran Center push Sedrick Van-Pran Granger for the backup position OR could a shuffle to Guard be in play? Whatever it is, Cushenberry signed with the Bills for a reason, meaning the veteran who has started 80 games throughout his career was promised a legitimate path to the Bills gameday roster.

Trent Sherfield (WR) - 1yr

[Confirmed by Buffalo Bills - 03/26/26 4:18PM]

Trent Sherfield returns to Buffalo with a clear path to the 53-man roster. He’s by no means a player the Bills would want to see the field as a receiver but as a breakglass player in that role and one that excels on special teams Sherfield makes for a solid bottom of the roster guy. By no means is he a lock to make the roster, but don’t be surprised if after cutdown day in September you see Sherfield still with the Bills.

Geno Stone (S) - 1yr $1.4m ($0.19 guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Jordan Schultz - 03/13/26 5:15PM]

The Bills overhaul of their secondary continues with the latest addition being Geno Stone. Stone spent his first four seasons in Baltimore working his way from 7th round draft pick to full time starter. In the past two seasons he has started for Cincinnati and in 2025 was one of four Bengals with 100+ tackles. Where Stone fits in the Bills secondary remains to be seen but with him joining Chauncy Gardner-Johnson and Dee Alford there appears to be a role for Stone somewhere in the spectrum of Base to Dime.

C.J. Gardner-Johnson (DB) - 1yr $6m ($3.02m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Tom Pelissero - 03/12/26 6:35PM]

The Buffalo Bills needed a veteran safety to drop alongside Cole Bishop in the starting 11 on defense, at least for now that will be C.J. Gardner-Johnson. A bit of a wildcard, CJGJ can perform anywhere from elite to being a complete liability. The Bills are betting on the former with hopes that the edge that he brings can result in Buffalo’s defense playing with a bit more swagger in 2026. Maybe, just maybe, a player with his mindset and effect on opposing offenses is what they need to get over the hump when it matters most.

Bradley Chubb (DE) - 3yr $43.5m ($29m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Adam Schefter - 03/11/26 4:25PM]

The Bills didn’t get Trey Hendrickson or Maxx Crosby but they did get a player with massive upside. Bradley Chubb has struggled with injuries throughout his career but when healthy he has been a menace that opposing defenses have to deal with. Buffalo is baking on him staying healthy and contributing double digit sacks in at least two of the next three seasons. Accomplish that and this is an impressive signing by Brandon Beane. Don’t, and it is another conversation entirely.

Kyle Allen (QB) - 2yr $4.1m ($1.8m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Adam Schefter - 03/09/26 7:37PM]

With Mitch Trubisky signing with the Titans the Bills either needed to lean on Shane Buechele to be Josh Allen’s rostered backup or go with Plan B. Buffalo went with Plan B by signing close friend of Josh Allen, Kyle Allen. Like Trubisky, this will be Allen’s (Kyle) second stint with Buffalo as he was the primary backup in 2023. It’s a move about vibes, because if you are wondering what will happen if Allen (Kyle) has to play, just ask Tom Moore.

Dee Alford (CB) - 3yr $15.75m ($10.12m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Jeremy Fowler - 03/09/26 5:08PM]

Like most NFL defenses, Jim Leonhard’s spends a vast majority of its time in Nickel+. That means that the Nickel position is far more important than LB3. After jettisoning Taron Johnson it became a position the Bills had to fill. Enter Leonhard’s answer, Dee Alford. Alford comes to Buffalo by way of Atlanta where he consistently improved after beginning his professional career in the CFL. Now Alford will be a focal point of a defense that will pride itself on versatility, something Alford has oodles of.

D.J. Moore (WR) - Trade by Bears

[Confirmed by Adam Schefter - 03/05/26 11:43AM]

BUF gives ‘26 2nd + ‘26 5th | CHI gives D.J. Moore

The biggest hole on the Bills roster was their lack of a legitimate option on the boundary at wide receiver. There were multiple ways the Bills could go about addressing that but where they ultimately landed was a trade with the Chicago Bears for D.J. Moore. Moore is coming off the worst season of his career (50 receptions, 682 yards) but the Bills are betting that that was caused by an abundance of weapons in Chicago as opposed to a downward trend in talent. All that aside there is no mistaking that Moore presents a big upgrade to the Bills WR room and will be a focal point of Buffalo’s offense in 2026 and beyond.

Buffalo Bills Players Retained

Dalton Kincaid (TE) - 5th Year Option ($8.1m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Sal Capaccio - 03/30/26 12:11PM]

Not that Dalton Kincaid was set to go anywhere this season, but the Bills have picked up his 5th year option all but guaranteeing he will be in Buffalo in 2027 as well. Kincaid has been arguably Josh Allen’s best weapon through the air the past two years when he is on the field, the issue being exactly that. Kincaid needs to find a way to stay healthy in 2026, if he can do that he has all the makings of a potential breakout star at the Tight End position.

Damar Hamlin (SAF) - 1yr

[Confirmed by Buffalo Bills - 03/27/26 11:31AM]

While some fans will meet the return of Damar Hamlin with angst, you can do a lot worse than Hamlin as a Safety competing for a roster spot in 2026. Hamlin is just 1 year removed from being Buffalo’s starting safety, and while he isn’t a star at the position his starting experience and skill set make him an acceptable depth player. What will be interesting about the Hamlin addition is whether or not he makes the 53 or the Practice Squad under Jim Leonhard’s regime.

Dawson Knox (TE) - 3yr $20m ($13.5m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Jeremy Fowler - 03/10/26 11:28AM]

Dawson Knox’s contract was untenable heading into the 2026 offseason and something needed to be done to remedy that. The Bills answer is a three year contract extension that will reduce his cap hit in 2026 and spread it out into the future. Though Knox’s play has not reached the level expected of his massive extension from 2022, he has become an integral part of the Bills offense. His abilities as a blocker and receiver should maintain his snap share at or near the 60% mark. Of note, Knox is just 228 receiving yards from passing Pete Metzelaars as the Bills all time leader in receiving yards for a Tight End.

Tyler Bass (K) - 2yr $6.75m ($1m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Tom Pelissero - 03/10/26 7:42AM]

Heading into the offseason Tyler Bass was a cut candidate following an up and down 2024 and a missed 2025. To avoid outright cutting him Bass and the Bills have agreed to a revised contract which essentially will allow him to compete in an offseason kicking competition. If he does struggle Buffalo will pivot (possibly the return of Matt Prater?) If he doesn’t struggle and can return to the form of earlier in his career Bass has the upside to be a Top-10 kicker in 2026.

Mitch Wishnowsky (P) - 1yr

[Confirmed by Dianna Russini - 03/09/26 7:45PM]

The Bills went through a lot of kicking specialists in 2025, but the final Punter to stick on their roster happened to be the Boomin’ Onion, Mitch Wishnowsky. He played pretty well during his time in Buffalo too, producing a 41.8 Net Yards per Punt to go along with an I20 rate of 47.3%. Wishnowsky rejoins the Bills at least for now with expectations that he will compete with a rookie in camp for a spot on the 53-man roster.

Connor McGovern (C) - 4yr $52m ($32m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Ian Rapoport - 03/07/26 11:49PM]

Over the past couple seasons the Bills offensive line has been a major strength, but this offseason they were on the precipice of losing 40% of it. They avoided that prior to free agency by locking up three year starter Connor McGovern to a four year deal. McGovern was one of seven Bills players to receive an All-Pro vote this past season and his new contract will provide Josh Allen and Co. a high-end anchor in the middle of their line through 2029.

Buffalo Bills Players Lost

Ryan Van Demark (OT) - Vikings - 1yr $4.2m ($4.2m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Alaina Getzenberg - 03/20/26 3:06PM]

Ryan Van Demark, who was a Restricted Free Agent, signed a tendered contract with the Minnesota Vikings for $4.2m. The Buffalo Bills had the ability to match but elected not to. This likely had to do with retaining Connor McGovern as well as trust in Chase Lundt and Tylan Grable to fill Van Demark’s swing role. It surely is a hit to Buffalo’s OL depth but one Brandon Beane and Co clearly believe they have an answer for in house, or can solve for less than $4.2m.

Darnell Savage (DB) - Steelers - 1yr $1.5m ($0.19m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Tom Pelissero - 03/10/26 11:15PM]

The Bills contingency plan when their signing of Darius Slay fell through was Darnell Savage. Savage didn’t see much playing time (until the AFC Championship game) but with his age and talent he still has some legs in the league, which the Steelers are hoping to cash in on.

Cam Lewis (DB) - Bears - 2yr $6m ($2.75m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Jeremy Fowler - 03/10/26 4:48PM]

Cam Lewis has been a jack of all trades for the Bills since joining as a UDFA in 2019. During his tenure with the Bills he played meaningful snaps as a boundary corner, nickel corner, dime backer, and safety. He also was a fixture on special teams which has allowed him to now extend his NFL career into its 7th season. Not the best DB you will find, but a player who offers a ton of depth and can help out a contender when called upon.

David Edwards (LG) - Saints - 4yr $61m ($40m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Ian Rapoport - 03/09/26 2:10PM]

The Bills have officially lost 20% of their Offensive Line that has been together for the past two seasons. One of the more underappreciated players on the Bills roster, Edwards brings his consistent play to New Orleans who is looking to rebuild their offense. This likely means Alec Anderson and/or Tylan Grable are in play at LG with a Day 3 developmental draft pick at Guard being a foregone conclusion at this point.

Reggie Gilliam (FB) - Patriots - 3yr $12m ($6m guaranteed)

[Confirmed by Mike Garafolo - 03/09/26 1:15PM]

The Bills lose a key piece to a division rival with Reggie Gilliam signing with the Patriots. Gilliam was a key pare of leading James Cook towards the rushing title in 2026 while being a fixture on Special Teams. Buffalo will either need a schematic pivot or lean on a player like Jackson Hawes to fill the void left by fan-favorite Reggie Gilliam’s departure.

Mitchell Trubsiky (QB) - Titans - 2yr $10.5m

[Confirmed by Mike Garafolo - 03/09/26 1:04PM]

The Bills will be looking for a new QB2 with Mitchell Trubisky departing Buffalo yet again. Trubisky heads to Tennessee to backup Cam Ward with a path to playing time if Ward continues to struggle like he did in his rookie season. For Buffalo it provides an opportunity to bring a new perspective into the QB room but is a new role the team must fill.

Taron Johnson (CB) - Trade to Raiders

[Confirmed by Ian Rapoport - 03/08/26 9:38PM]

BUF gives Taron Johnson + ‘26 7th | LVR gives ‘26 6th

After eight years with the Buffalo Bills Taron Johnson is on the move. Originally the Bills announced Johnson had been cut but prior to the deadline the Las Vegas Raiders made the decision to swap some picks in order to lock down the Nickel CB. Johnson still has plenty left in the tank and should find some success in Las Vegas. He does however leave behind a massive void in the Bills defense that Jim Leonhard and his staff must now fill.

Remaining Unsigned Buffalo Bills

• A.J. Epenesa

• Brandin Cooks

• Curtis Samuel

• Dane Jackson

• DaQuan Jones

• Gabriel Davis

• Joey Bosa

• Jordan Phillips

• Jordan Poyer

• Larry Ogunjobi

• Matt Milano

• Matt Prater

• Shaq Thompson

• Taylor Rapp

• Tre’Davious White

In 2024 Taylor Rapp was phenomenal, which may be an understatement. In multiple games Rapp was key to a positive outcome while him missing the AFC Championship game was a significant reason the Bills fell to the Chiefs. In 2025, prior to his injury (or “soft-benching”), Rapp was simply bad. Whatever is going on with him there is little confidence he will regain his 2024 form under a new regime which is precisely why Buffalo should move on from him and recoup ~$3m in much needed cap space.

Cut Curtis Samuel

When the Bills signed Curtis Samuel prior to the 2024 season it was met with plenty of excitement. To that point, Samuel hadn’t played with a legitimate NFL quarterback, but he clearly had the talent and versatility to be an impactful player. His impact peaked in 2020 when he contributed 1,051 scrimmage yards to the Carolina Panthers under offensive coordinator…Joe Brady. The stars aligned for him to take another step in Buffalo but injuries and an inability to gel with the Bills offense ultimately derailed his career in with the franchise. At this point Samuel isn’t an answer to the Bills receiver problems, which means cutting him and saving ~$6m in cap space is more valuable than seeing him take up a roster spot heading into 2026.

Cut (and re-sign) Dawson Knox

Despite an egregious contract, Dawson Knox has been a productive member of the Bills for the past seven seasons. To that end he sits just 227 yards behind Pete Metzelaars for the franchise record in receiving yards by a Tight End. But that contract means a ~$17m cap hit in 2026, and for a player who averaged ~400 yards per season, that isn’t palatable. Cutting Knox saves the Bills ~$9.7m in cap space, but attempting to re-sign a player that can contribute in the run and pass game for say… $3m? is worth attempting.

Re-sign Reggie Gilliam

Reggie Gilliam was the NFL’s best Fullback in 2025. Not only was he that, but he has played over 75% of special teams snaps each season for the Bills since 2021. Maintaining continuity in the league’s best rushing attack and a special teams unit which was great in 2025 is important. Find a way to keep Reggie in the house, because at the end of the day “Fullbacks Matter”.

Re-sign Sam Franklin

In 2024 the Bills ranked 16th in Y/PR against and 28th in Y/KR against. In 2025 the Bills ranked 7th in Y/PR against and 17th in Y/KR against. A big reason for that was, now departed, Special Teams coordinator Chris Tabor. Tabor’s impact on the Bills roster was felt in many ways but his push to sign Sam Franklin was a major factor in stabilizing the Bills coverage units. Now in Miami, expect Tabor to try and lure Franklin to South Beach to effect the same change on the Dolphins coverage units. Buffalo must prevent that by offering Franklin a solid contract and a C on his jersey to assure their coverage units remain above average in 2026.

Sign Jack Sanborn

Who is Jack Sanborn? I’m glad you asked, Sanborn is a player I first tweeted about in March of 2023 as a UDFA who had an impressive rookies season for the Bears. He has some chops against the pass, can play downhill, and has the size needed of a linebacker in a 3-4 scheme like Jim Leonhard’s. After injuries knocked him out of the 2025 season, and with little name recognition, Sanborn will cost Buffalo virtually nothing providing the Bills with an inexpensive potential starter with a rotational LB and special teams contributing floor.

Sign Dalton Kincaid to the 5th Year Option

The oft injured Dalton Kincaid is entering the 4th year of his rookie contract, meaning the former first round pick is eligible for his 5th year option. In the past two seasons Kincaid has missed 9 games and has played through injuries that have hampered his ability to be a major contributor. Despite that, Kincaid has averaged an adequate 41 yards per game with evidence that he was a top two option for Josh Allen in 2025. Kincaid is an injury free season away from being a 1,000 yard tight end and possible All-pro consideration. Betting on that upside via a 5th year option is a bet worth taking.

Extend O’Cyrus Torrence

Since 2023 do you know who has led the Bills in offensive snaps? Not Dion Dawkins, not Spencer Brown, not even Josh Allen…but O’Cyrus Torrence. Torrence has played 3,801 snaps as a stalwart option at Right Guard for the Bills. While there are criticisms of Torrence, some warranted, others not, you can do a lot worse than a player like him on your offensive line. Considering the going rates for even subpar offensive guards, keeping Torrence in Buffalo needs to be a priority for the Bills.

Let David Edwards Walk

Since 2024 the Bills have had one of the NFL’s most consistent offensive lines. That is set to change this off-season with their Left Guard and Center set to hit free agency. It’s imperative the Bills let that Left Guard hit the open market. Edwards was a solid get for Brandon Beane after he brought him to Buffalo following a concussion riddled start to his career in Los Angeles. After spending 2023 as a swing guard, Edwards has been a solid starter at Left Guard and at just 29 likely will demand a sizeable contract in Free Agency. It’ll be very difficult for the Bills to invest significant money in Edwards as they look to fix the talent issues on their roster. Let David Edwards test Free Agency.

Let Connor McGovern Walk

If the Bills are forced to pick between David Edwards and Connor McGovern the answer is simple, re-sign McGovern. McGovern has been an impressive replacement for the now retired Mitch Morse and even received an All-pro vote this off-season! The question is, can the Bills afford to bring McGovern back? There are currently six Centers wit an AAV >$10m with Creed Humphrey’s $18m leading the way. You can fully expect McGovern to be the seventh player to receive north of $10m AAV with his price likely exceeding $15m. This may be controversial, but the Bills should let another team play McGovern. See what you have in Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, draft a Center on day 3 of the draft, and/or sign a veteran on the cheap to replace a player who has been very very good for the Bills.

Acquire a Veteran Running Mate for Cole Bishop

Cole Bishop ascended in 2025 and looks like he could be a stud under the tutelage of Jim Leonhard. As of today Taylor Rapp, who the Bills need to cut, is Bishop’s partner with the only other safeties under contract being Jordan Hancock, Wande Owens, and Daryl Porter. Buffalo should, and will, draft a Safety to groom for a future role with Bishop but they need a veteran presence in the fold. Keep an eye out for a P.J. Locke, Jabrill Peppers, Nick Cross, or Kyle Dugger to be brought in and run with Bishop.

Acquire a Boundary WR1

The most important thing the Bills can do this off-season is acquire a wide receiver that can consistently win on the outside. We aren’t talking another Curtis Samuel or Josh Palmer, we are talking a player that single-handedly strikes fear in opponents. Brandon Beane seems to be in agreement with this often speaking about how he intends to be aggressive in remedying this glaring roster issue. Maybe they try again to bait the Dolphins into sending Jaylen Waddle their way under a new regime? Maybe they make a player swap, with some picks involved, and see Keon Coleman trade places with Marvin Harrison? Maybe they offer free agency Alec Pierce big money to come to Buffalo? Maybe they move up the draft board and snag a top tier rookie? Or maybe they swing for the fences and offer the world for Justin Jefferson? Whatever the case the Bills need to turn “maybe” into “happened” and go out and acquire a WR1 to pair with QB1.

The analysis of that position often devolves into long winded arguments about who has the most/least help, which teams won more games, and what statistics back the arguments that fit the narrative that your favorite player is the best quarterback. Over the years, the latter of this conversation has become one of the most convoluted parts of the debate with a slew of statistics entering the fold.

Some may use Passer Rating, a stat developed in the early 1970s where an average quarterback was said to have a rating of 66.7. Others use QBR, a proprietary formula developed by ESPN whose confidentiality is often called into question by quiet updates that tend to fit narratives of the entertainment network. Some even use PFF ratings, ratings that time and time again have proven to be questionable at best and illogical more often than not.

So why not add another statistic to the fold? Below I present to you the modern brother of Passer Rating and the public sibling of QBR…QuBeR.

What is QuBeR?

QuBeR, a portmanteau for Uber Quarterback Rating, is a contemporary metric for evaluating NFL Quarterbacks. It uses 11 accessible statistics to calculate 4 Fundamental Frequencies named Positive Touch Frequency (PTF), Yards Frequency (YDF), Touchdown Frequency (TDF), and Turnover Frequency (TOF), each ranging from 0 to 25 where a value of 12.5 is considered average. Sum each of those Frequencies and the result is QuBeR, which ranges from 0 to 100 where a value of 50 constitutes average Quarterback play.

• Pass Inputs: Completions, Attempts, Yards, Touchdowns, Interceptions

• Rush/Receiving Inputs: Attempts/Receptions, Yards, Touchdowns, Fumbles Lost

• Sack Inputs: Sacks Taken, Sack Yards

It’s a metric that slightly adjusts its formula each season to the average of the past 5 seasons to allow for historical comparison of quarterback play. To date, the 1,692 quarterbacks have been analyzed dating back to 1961.

For a further breakdown of QuBeR, and the formulas that go into calculating it, head here.

QuBeR Data 2025

Summary

QuBeR can help to tell a part of the story of quarterback play in any given season, but it should never be the only tool used to analyze quarterbacks. Drake Maye led the league in QuBeR, but was it against lesser competition? Matthew Stafford was second, but did throwing to the likes of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams in an indoor stadium help him? Josh Allen was third, but did having the league’s rushing leader help him produce at a high level?

Statistically, QuBeR does a good job of telling you how efficient individuals are but it should be used with caution. Still, it is a metric that attempts to do a lot of things right that other metrics do wrong, mainly being accessible, contemporary, and transparent.

If you want even more QuBeR statistics you can head to QuBeR.BILLSish.com where you can see details for every quarterback from 2025 and peruse quarterbacks from Josh Allen to Fran Tarketon.

With that out of the way let’s get to the eighteenth and final edition of 2025’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important).

Week #17 Review

At the end of the day all that really matters is the Bills lost to the Eagles. That coupled with New England’s victory over the Jete locked the Bills into a wildcard position setting them up for an away game in the first round of the playoffs. Sneakily though it did help the Bills that the Texans beat the Chargers as it still provides the Bills a path to the 5 seed. That coupled with a Ravens win and Steelers loss could possibly setup the Bills with a visit to Baltimore while preventing a bye for the AFC North winner in what would be a really weird wildcard match up. This week though, it’s all about who YOU want the Bills to play with the traditional version of this article leaning into acquiring the Bills the #5 seed.

Rooting Interests Record: 112-102 (LW 6-8)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -33 (LW -4 👏)

Clinching Scenarios

• #5 SEED:

  • BUF win + HOU loss + LAC loss

• #6 SEED:

  • BUF win + (HOU loss OR LAC loss)

  • BUF win + JAX loss + HOU win + LAC win & SOV/SOV over BUF

• #7 SEED:

  • BUF loss

  • BUF win + LAC win + HOU win + JAX win

How will this week’s “Rooting Interest” work?

It’s the last week of the regular season and the Bills are guaranteed a playoff spot. This year that spot is a wildcard position, meaning the Bills will be the 5, 6, or 7 seed in the upcoming postseason. Below we cover the 6 teams the Bills could face in round one of the playoffs. Each section will provide season averages (based on yardage), a summary of the potential matchup, and my Uber Rating for how advantageous I believe the matchup would be. Also included are the scenarios needed for each matchup as well as a streamlined version of the traditional rooting interests post following said analysis.

So, you want to play the Broncos?

Statistics: Pass Offense - #9, Rush Offense - #19, Pass Defense - #8, Rush Defense - #2

Clinching Scenarios:

• AS #6 SEED: BUF win + HOU loss + DEN loss + NE win + JAX win

Team Overview: The Broncos defense is A+ and set to cause any team they play issues. Off the edge they have Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper while up the middle they have Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers culminating in one of the league’s best front-fours. Deep they have arguably the NFL’s best CB in Pat Surtain while their linebackers are nothing to joke about. This defense will give the Bills offense fits but as long as Buffalo can establish the run and feed their tight ends, there are points to be had here.

On offense the Broncos are an odd duckling full of big plays, bad plays, and weirdo moments. Their rushing attack at this point consists of an OK RJ Harvey and a random scramble by Bo Nix. Running isn’t their bread and butter though as Nix dealing to the likes of Cortland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Evan Engram has proven to be a contentious issue for opponents. Yes, the Broncos defense is the bigger threat in this potential matchup, but their offense has the pieces to make this matchup a challenge for the Bills.

Uber Rating: 👏👏👏

So, you want to play the Patriots?

Statistics: Pass Offense - #3, Rush Offense - #13, Pass Defense - #10, Rush Defense - #8

Clinching Scenarios:

• AS #6 SEED: BUF win + (HOU loss OR LAC loss) + NE loss + JAX win

• AS #7 SEED: BUF loss + ((DEN win + NE win OR JAX loss) OR DEN loss + NE loss + JAX loss)

Team Overview: The Bills have beaten the Patriots in Foxborough, and the Patriots have beaten the Bills in Orchard Park. We know both of these teams can beat the other, but what would a matchup look like in the postseason? On offense, Drake Maye may very well win the MVP as despite the competition he has been incredibly decisive and sliced up defenses week in and week out behind Josh McDaniels’ expert game plan. The run game isn’t as spicy though which should excite Bills fans if a rubber match is to be had at some point in the postseason.

On the other side of the ball things get a bit more interesting for the Bills. Christian Gonzalez is a legit CB1 while the rest of New England’s defense is a well-oiled machine. Running can be difficult and passing can be a problem, yet there are areas to attack. The ground game can be established, and the deep ball is there to be had with an inexperienced pair of safeties. If this matchup were to occur don’t be surprised if you see a Brandin Cooks game, a player who is beginning to heat up with Josh Allen late in the season.

Uber Rating: 👏👏👏

So, you want to play the Jaguars?

Statistics: Pass Offense - #14, Rush Offense - #20, Pass Defense - #22, Rush Defense - #1

Clinching Scenarios:

• AS #6 SEED: BUF win + (HOU loss OR LAC loss) + ((JAX win + DEN win + NE win) OR (JAX loss + HOU loss))

• AS #7 SEED: BUF loss OR (HOU win + LAC win) + JAX win + DEN loss OR NE loss

Team Overview: Has Trevor Lawrence finally arrived? Is Brian Thomas legit? Is the Travis Etienne run game good? There are a ton of questions about this Jaguars offense, an offense that produces a spectrum ranging from legit to bad. In a matchup with the Bills, they would likely lean into the run game, which includes Lawrence’s legs, but as long as Buffalo can contain that, this is a game they should have some success in on the defensive side of the ball.

On the other side, the Jaguars defense is a bit of an enigma. Josh Hines-Allen is a legit difference maker but after him there exists just a lot of good, not great, players. Foyesade Oluokun is a tackle monster, Devin Lloyd is having a great season, and Arik Armstead can still be an issue up the middle. Outside of that the Bills would have mismatches in this matchup. Shakir could win out of the slot, Cook could find some lanes (despite Jacksonville’s prowess against the run), and Allen would likely find some dudes open deep. This would be a fun one and one the Bills should have.

Uber Rating: 👏👏👏👏

So, you want to play the Texans?

Statistics: Pass Offense - #16, Rush Offense - #24, Pass Defense - #4, Rush Defense - #4

Clinching Scenarios:

• AS #6 SEED: BUF win + HOU win + JAX loss + LAC loss

Team Overview: This may be the nightmare matchup for the Bills as the Texans seem to feed the Bills issues. Their pass rush is insane while Stingley, Lassiter, and Pitre are problems in the 2^nd level. Add to that Al-Shaair head hunting in the middle of the field and this is simply not a team the Bills want to play. Josh Allen struggles here, Brown & Dawkins have issues, and Cook may not find footing. This would be a low scoring affair that the Bills should hope to avoid.

On the other side CJ Stroud is starting to heat up but the offense is far from great. They can’t run the ball well, with their leading rusher, Woody Marks, averaging just 3.5 Y/A. Due to that Buffalo could bail out to stop the pass and lean on their secondary, which appears to be getting better by the week to prevent the Texans from driving. This screams 21-20 game. As long as Buffalo is the 21-point team, that is OK.

Uber Rating: 👏

So, you want to play the Steelers?

Statistics: Pass Offense - #22, Rush Offense - #26, Pass Defense - #30, Rush Defense - #12

Clinching Scenarios:

• AS #5 SEED: BUF win + HOU loss + LAC loss + PIT win

Team Overview: What is the Steelers offense? It is a run first offense where the running is generated by a passing attack built on quick throws that simulate the run game. This is something the Bills struggle with in isolation but in a game where they know that is the style, they are built to tee off. That they did in week thirteen when they held the Steelers to 7 points and 166 yards in Pittsburgh. This is by far the offense the Bills would have the easiest time contending with.

The other side of the ball gets a bit more tenuous as elite talent exists. T.J. Watt is set to make his return as late as the playoffs and is one of the league’s best pass rushers. Jalen Ramsey still flashes elite play at the age of 31 and can make a game changing plays at any moment. And Kyle Dugger, Patrick Queen, Cam Heyward, among others, all have skillsets that can pose issues for any team. All that being said, if the Bills don’t put up 28+ in a matchup with Pittsburgh, it would be a letdown.

Uber Rating: 👏👏👏👏👏

So, you want to play the Ravens?

Statistics: Pass Offense - #28, Rush Offense - #1, Pass Defense - #29, Rush Defense - #11

Clinching Scenarios:

• AS #5 SEED: BUF win + HOU loss + LAC loss + BAL win

Team Overview: At this point I don’t know if the Ravens are good or bad. They just scored 41 points without their 2-time MVP against a legit defense in Green Bay. Feeding Derrick Henry is a path to success for Baltimore, and possibly their best, but is also a path that should terrify Bills fans. Buffalo cannot stop the run and if it comes down to a game where the Bills must bail out to stop the run, relying on a skeleton crew to stop Lamar Jackson, or Tyler Huntley, is concerning.

On offense Buffalo should find some success against Baltimore as their defensive line has struggled and their corners haven’t been the best. Still, Kyle Hamilton exists and is in the conversation for best defensive player in the NFL. He could single handedly change the game while Travis Jones is a disaster waiting to happen up front. This is a cape game waiting to happen. Either Josh Allen is Superman, or the Bills are one and done.

Uber Rating: 👏👏

Abbreviated Traditional “Rooting Interests” Post

Panthers (8-8) @ Buccaneers (7-9) – Sat 4:30PM

Optimal Outcome: Panthers victory

Seahawks (13-3) @ 49ers (12-4) – Sat 8:00PM

Optimal Outcome: N/A

Saints (6-10) @ Falcons (7-9) – Sun 1:00PM

Optimal Outcome: Falcons victory

Browns (4-12) @ Bengals (6-10) – Sun 1:00PM

Optimal Outcome: Browns victory

Packers (9-6-1) @ Vikings (8-8) – Sun 1:00PM 👏

Optimal Outcome: Packers victory

Cowboys (7-8-1) @ Giants (3-13) – Sun 1:00PM 👏

Optimal Outcome: Cowboys victory

Titans (3-13) @ Jaguars (12-4) – Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

Optimal Outcome: Titans victory

Colts (8-8) @ Texans (11-5) – Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏

Optimal Outcome: Colts victory

Jets (3-13) @ Bills (11-5) – Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏👏👏

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Lions (8-8) @ Bears (11-5) – Sun 4:25PM

Optimal Outcome: Bears victory

Chargers (11-5) @ Broncos (13-3) – Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏👏

Optimal Outcome: Broncos victory

Chiefs (6-10) @ Raiders (2-14) – Sun 4:25PM

Optimal Outcome: Chiefs victory

Cardinals (3-13) @ Rams (11-5) – Sun 4:25PM

Optimal Outcome: Rams victory

Dolphins (7-9) @ Patriots (13-3) – Sun 4:25PM

Optimal Outcome: Dolphins victory

Commanders (4-12) @ Eagles (11-5) – Sun 4:25PM 👏

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

Ravens (8-8) @ Steelers (9-7) – Sun 8:20PM

Optimal Outcome: Steelers victory

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Broncos (14-3)**

2. Patriots (13-4)**

3. Jaguars (12-5)**

4. Steelers (10-7)**

5. Bills (12-5)*

6. Texans (11-6, H2H win over LAC)*

7. Chargers (11-6, H2H loss to HOU)*

8. Colts (9-8)

9. Ravens (8-9, H2H win over MIA)

10. Dolphins (8-9, H2H loss to BAL)

11. Chiefs (7-10)

12. Bengals (6-11)

13. Browns (5-12)

14. Titans (4-13)

15. Jets (3-14)

16. Raiders (2-15)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Welcome to the seventeenth iteration of 2025’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). Future editions of this series will be posted each week on Wednesday by 9:00AM ET.

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #16 Review

The primary goal of week sixteen was for the Buffalo Bills to lock in a playoff spot. Goal accomplished. Buffalo handled their business against the Browns (barely) while the 49ers downed the Colts and guaranteed the Bills a 7^th consecutive playoff appearance, the longest active streak in the NFL. Those were the primary outcomes that mattered while the Patriots victors as well as the Chargers, were net negatives that will have continuing impacts on the playoff picture. At this point, Buffalo doesn’t need to keep winning, but if they do and a few things go their way this week, they can sail into week eighteen with full control over the #1 seed in the AFC.

Rooting Interests Record: 106-94 (LW 7-6)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -29 (LW -2 👏)

Cowboys (6-8-1) @ Commanders (4-11) - Thu 1:00PM

At this point SOV is such an unlikely tiebreaker that it isn’t worth considering. That means a more streamlined Rooting Interests that focuses on seeding for the Bills and worse draft position for all AFC non-contenders. To accomplish that in games like this we root for the NFC to bottom out. A Commanders loss helps accomplish this by pushing them up the draft board and some AFC teams down it.

Optimal Outcome: Cowboys victory

Lions (8-7) @ Vikings (7-8) – Thu 4:30PM

Same logic as Thursday’s first game, root to reduce the draft stock of AFC teams outside the playoffs. Detroit still has an outside chance at getting into the dance, but the Vikings are eliminated. Root for the eliminated NFC team to drop another game and force AFC teams down the draft ladder.

Optimal Outcome: Lions victory

Broncos (12-3) @ Chiefs (6-9) - Thu 8:15PM 👏👏👏

The Bills still have a path at the #1 seed in the AFC but among the many things they need in order to accomplish that, the Broncos losing is included. That means on Christmas night Bills Mafia gets to bundle up by their stockings hung with care, and root for Shane Buechele to backup Chris Oladokun on root to a Christmas miracle.

Optimal Outcome: Chiefs victory

Texans (10-5) @ Chargers (11-4) - Sat 4:30PM 👏👏👏

Part of Buffalo’s path to the #1 seed, and also a higher seed in the wildcard picture requires the Chargers dropping a game or two. Now that the Bills have clinched a playoff seed that means the Bills can safely root for the Texans to down the Chargers. While it does get Houston one step closer to surpassing the Bills, in totality it is the optimal outcome of this matchup.

Optimal Outcome: Texans victory

Ravens (7-8) @ Packers (9-5-1) - Sat 8:00PM 👏

There seems to be a rooting interest in this article every week that pisses fans off. Look, I get it, the Ravens are a threat because of their QB, RB, and blue-chip talent on defense. In the playoffs they will be a tough out even though the Bills are 2-0 against them in the Josh Allen era. All that being said, avoiding the winner of the AFC North getting a pseudo-bye week in week eighteen is optimal for the Bills. If the Ravens lose this week or the Steelers win (spoiler alert) the Steelers clinch the North and can begin game planning the subsequent day for their game against the five seed. That is not optimal, so for now we root to avoid that and will dive deeper into the better matchup in next week’s “So, you want to play the…”

Optimal Outcome: Ravens victory

Cardinals (3-12) @ Bengals (5-10) - Sun 1:00PM

Cardinals @ Bengals is a pure draft position game. The Cardinals stink and need a new quarterback while the Bengals stink and their quarterback may want a new team. Draft position, draft position, draft position. Root for the Bengals to win and plummet their draft stock while improving Arizona’s.

Optimal Outcome: Bengals victory

Steelers (9-6) @ Browns (3-12) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

We already teased this in Ravens @ Packers. A Steelers victory clinches the AFC North for Pittsburgh and provides them with a pseudo-bye in week eighteen. If the Bills end up with the five seed that will make their path through the first round of the playoffs all hat much more difficult. You can root for Pittsburgh to win the North while simultaneously rooting for them to do it in week eighteen. That’s optimal.

Optimal Outcome: Browns victory

Saints (5-10) @ Titans (3-12) - Sun 1:00PM

Another draft pick game for Rooting Interests will have a massive impact on the draft board. A bottom tier NFC team versus a bottom tier AFC team makes for a game of high importance for all non-playoff teams. For Bills Mafia, rooting for the NFC team to drop this game and the AFC team to stack another win means less valuable picks for the Titans and others.

Optimal Outcome: Titans victory

Jaguars (11-4) @ Colts (8-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

Jaguars @ Colts is one of the few truly important games this week for Bills fans to monitor. While the Jaguars are currently not in direct competition for the Bills for a seed, there is a possibility that they could come into play in the wildcard or even for the #1 overall pick. That means rooting against them is paramount especially with the Colts essentially tiebreaker agnostic to the Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Colts victory

Buccaneers (7-8) @ Dolphins (6-9) - Sun 1:00PM

The Dolphins have officially made it 25 consecutive seasons without winning a playoff game. Their future doesn’t look bright either post the benching of their supposed-franchise QB in Tua Tagovailoa. What would help them would be a high draft pick that allows them to find their QB of the future. What won’t help that is the Dolphins beating the Buccaneers. Here’s to hoping they beat the Buccaneers.

Optimal Outcome: Dolphins victory

Patriots (12-3) @ Jets (3-12) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏

The Bills need a mini miracle to win the AFC East. Buffalo essentially needs to win out while hoping the Patriots lose to Brady Cook’s Jets or Quinn Ewer’s Dolphins. If that mini miracle does happen this week though AND the Bills handle their business, they will enter week eighteen with a lead in the AFC East and on the fast track towards a home playoff game. Santa please deliver.

Optimal Outcome: Jets victory

Seahawks (12-3) @ Panthers (8-7) - Sun 1:00PM

There isn’t really anything to root for here that has a legitimate chance of happening. Both the Seahawks and Panthers are still in line to make the playoffs, which means neither are currently applicable to the draft and since they represent the NFC, they don’t affect the Bills. So, for the sake of a rooting interest, let’s snag a little SOV via a Panther’s victory…just in case.

Optimal Outcome: Panthers victory

Giants (2-13) @ Raiders (2-13) - Sun 4:05PM

This is the game of the week for many of the teams eliminated from the playoffs. The loser of this game all but assures they will be picking first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. From a rooting interests perspective that means rooting for the #1 pick to get kicked out of the AFC giving an NFC team the most powerful asset in the draft. Simple as it does, go Raiders.

Optimal Outcome: Raiders victory

Eagles (10-5) @ Bills (11-4) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏👏👏

The Bills have clinched a playoff spot, but not a playoff spot (if you catch my drift). At this point there are only two things that matter, health and seeding. So, in this game we root for everyone to leave healthy with a victory by the Bills being a nice addition that sets them up for sneaky seeding come playoff time.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Bears (11-4) @ 49ers (11-4) - Sun 8:20PM

This game doesn’t matter for the Bills. The Bears and 49ers are competing for seeding in the NFC. Neither has a real effect on the AFC. Watch this game for fun, ignore it from a rooting perspective.

Optimal Outcome: N/A

Rams (11-4) @ Falcons (6-9) - Mon 8:15PM

The final game of the week is a weird and goofy one. From rooting perspectives it’s simple, lower NFC teams records to increase their draft capital and reduce the draft stock of AFC teams. Funny enough, if that happens this week the Rams will increase their draft stock as the owners of the Falcons pick. That means that the most talented team in the NFC may very well have a top ten pick in the 2026 draft. That is OK.

Optimal Outcome: Rams victory

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Bills (12-4, 8-3 WLC)**

2. Broncos (12-4, 7-4 WLC)**

3. Texans (11-5, 4-1 DIV)**

4. Steelers (9-7)**

5. Patriots (12-4, 7-4 WLC)*

6. Jaguars (11-5, 3-2 DIV, H2H win over LAC)*

7. Chargers (11-5, H2H loss to JAX)*

8. Colts (9-7)

9. Ravens (8-8)

10. Chiefs (7-9, 4-7 WLC)

11. Dolphins (7-9, 3-8 WLC)

12. Bengals (6-10)

13. Jets (4-12, 3-8 WLC, H2H win over CLE)

14. Titans (4-12, 2-9 WLC, H2H win over TEN)

15. Browns (4-12, 3-8 WLC, H2H loss to NYJ, H2H loss to TEN)

16. Raiders (3-13)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Playoff Odds

Using the New York Time’s NFL Predictor if all games go the optimal route, then the Bills chances at the following are:

• Make Playoffs: 100% (+0%)

• Win Division: 91% (+74%)

• #1 Seed: 89% (+87%)

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #15 Review

The Bills win over the Patriots was a massive step towards locking down a playoff spot while simultaneously keeping the division odds alive. The other big outcome this week was the Chiefs loss to the Chargers, eliminating Kansas City from the playoffs. It’s possible that this is the mental bump Buffalo needs to get over the hump but before getting there, Buffalo needs to get into the playoffs. The rest of week fifteen didn’t really help that regard as the Chargers, Jaguars, Texans, and Broncos all won. In fact, the only other significantly helpful outcome was the Colts loss to the Seahawks, which set up clinching scenarios for Buffalo in week sixteen.

Rooting Interests Record: 99-88 (LW 8-7)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -27 (LW -8 👏)

Clinching Scenarios

• PLAYOFFS: BUF Win + (HOU Loss OR IND Loss)

Rams (11-3) @ Seahawks (11-3) - Thu 8:15PM

Outside of a wild three-way tie it is now incredibly unlikely that SOV will play into the Bills end of season positioning. As a result, in games where tis article would traditionally only consider SOV the pivot this week and moving forward will be aimed at reducing the draft stock of AFC teams. Unfortunately, this game on Thursday night has no impact on SOV, neither the Rams nor Seahawks have lost to an AFC team, and has no impact on AFC draft stock, as both teams seem destined for the playoffs. What does this all mean? Watch this game purely as a football plan and enjoy a game featuring what may just be the two best teams in the NFL.

Optimal Outcome: N/A

Eagles (9-5) @ Commanders (4-10) - Sat 5:00PM 👏

This Saturday game is an important one for Bills fans to keep an eye on. Not for any massive reason related to the playoffs but because the Bills take on the Eagles next weekend. It happens to be an Eagles team that has struggled at points this season but remains arguably one of the most talented teams in the NFL. If you want an added rooting interest in this game, an Eagles victory could increase the Bills SOV while a Commanders loss pushes an NFC team further up the 2026 draft board.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

Packers (9-4-1) @ Bears (10-4) - Sat 8:20PM

The Packers and Bears are currently jockeying for playoff positioning with only one of them likely to continue their season past the regular portion. It will be an awesome Saturday night appetizer for a less stellar slate of Sunday games. From the Bills perspective however, there is nothing to latch onto here as the 2026 draft impact is minimal at best while the only feasible SOV impacts would apply to the Ravens or Broncos, neither of whom have a realistic tiebreaker involving SOV.

Optimal Outcome: N/A

Bills (10-4) @ Browns (3-11) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏👏

The Bills can clinch a playoff spot this week with a victory over the Browns and the Texans losing to the Raiders or the Colts losing to the 49ers. The sooner Buffalo clinches, the better, as it could provide Buffalo with a bye week even in the event they don’t get the #1 seed.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Chargers (10-4) @ Cowboys (6-7-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

Assuming the Bills clinch a playoff spot AND it’s a wildcard spot; there will be legitimate discussions about which seed is best. The week eighteen version of this article will go into depth about all the possibilities, including breakdowns of potential playoff opponents, but for now we look for optimal paths. The optimal path in question involves acquiring the highest seed and with the Chargers sitting ahead of the Bills due to the WLC tiebreaker, losses by Los Angeles are somewhat important. Root for just that in a game which could decide where, when, and who the Bills play in the 2025 post-season.

Optimal Outcome: Cowboys victory

Chiefs (6-8) @ Titans (2-12) - Sun 1:00PM

The Chiefs have been eliminated from playoff contention. That’s right, the Bill biggest bugaboo will not be in their way for the remainder of the 2025 campaign. Which makes this game a fun one to generate a rooting interest for. We aren’t going SOV here, instead we eye draft stock. Yes, a Titans win moves them further from the #1 pick, all but assuring that ends up in the NFC, but we are going a different direction. The Chiefs may not be as good moving forward as they once were but giving them a top ten pick could be a big issue if they hit a homerun while resetting their roster. Let’s avoid that.

Optimal Outcome: Chiefs victory

Bengals (4-10) @ Dolphins (6-8) - Sun 1:00PM

Both the Bengals and Dolphins have been eliminated from the playoffs. Moving forward the Bengals will need a full season from Joe Burrow if they have any hope of competing while the Dolphins will need a full season of any other quarterback not-named Tua Tagovailoa. Heading into this game the Bengals have the #9 pick in the NFL draft while the Dolphins have pick #11. Though not particularly appetizing, rooting to middle these two teams is the most optimal outcome for this game.

Optimal Outcome: Bengals victory

Jets (3-11) @ Saints (4-10) - Sunday 1:00PM

The Jets season has reached a point where they are starting the generic make your own quarterback in Brady Cook while firing their defensive coordinator. That’s a bad sign for a franchise who hasn’t made the playoffs since 2010 and is currently in line to draft in the top ten for the seventh time since 2017 (eighth if you count their two top ten picks in 2022). This game will decide just how high that pick is as a loss to the saints will propel them higher into the top five while a win could see them fall closer to pick ten. The latter is optimal, especially when it comes at a benefit to an NFC team.

Optimal Outcome: Jets victory

Vikings (6-8) @ Giants (2-12) - Sun 1:00PM

The New York Giants will be a key figure in the final three weeks of the season. With games against the Vikings, Raiders, and Cowboys, how the Giants play will likely determine who picks first overall in the 2026 draft. They are the AFC’s best protector of that pick with losses benefiting the entirety of the AFC for years to come. Thus, we root for Nine to down the Giants who have already guaranteed their ninth consecutive season with single digit wins.

Optimal Outcome: Vikings victory

Buccaneers (7-7) @ Panthers (7-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

In the final three weeks of the season the Buccaneers and Panthers are set to play each other two times. The outcome of those games will determine who wins the NFC South and gets to host a playoff game. From a rooting perspective there isn’t a ton to write home about here as both the Bucs and Panthers are teams the Bills have beaten this season making this game an SOV wipe. So, we dig a tad deeper and catch the Jaguars win over the Panthers week one and acknowledge that there exists a wild chance that SOV fits a tiebreaker with Jacksonville in unique three-way tie scenarios.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers victory

Jaguars (10-4) @ Broncos (12-2) - Sun 4:05PM 👏👏👏

The Buffalo Bills are not dead for the #1 seed, but they would need plenty of help to get there. That makes this game a bit odd to root for as a Broncos loss increases the unlikely odds that the Bills can take the top seed in the AFC while a Jaguars win makes it less likely the Bills can optimize their non-one seed seeding. But these posts look for optimal outcomes and with the #1 seed still on the table we should root for the outcome of this contest to improve the Bills odds of snagging that position.

Optimal Outcome: Jaguars victory

Falcons (5-9) @ Cardinals (3-11) - Sun 4:05PM

Two bad NFC teams will play in Arizona on Sunday afternoon in a game what will have major effects on the 2026 NFL Draft. A loss by the Cardinals could inject another NFC team into the top five picks while a loss by the Falcons gives the Rams (who own their pick) an all but guaranteed top ten pick. This one is simple though, assuring as many NFC teams pack the top of the board as possible benefits the Bills in the long term. Go birds (or something like that)!

Optimal Outcome: Falcons victory

Steelers (8-6) @ Lions (8-6) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

This is an odd one. The Steelers still have a path where they can win the AFC North at 11-6 which is more wins than the Bills currently have. Simultaneously, the Bills can’t win the AFC East with eleven wins, meaning in that scenario there is no possibility that Buffalo is competing with the Steelers for seeding. All this to say this comes down to one thing, do you want the Steelers or the Ravens to win the AFC North? I know the opinion of 98% of people reading this but the optimal path we are looking for here is that both teams go into week eighteen with a shot at winning the division (To prevent the pseudo-bye). That means a win here by Pittsburgh is OK because we will be rooting for the same from the Ravens this week.

Optimal Outcome: Steelers victory

Raiders (2-12) @ Texans (9-5) – Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏

The Bills must win their game and see the Texans or Colts lose their game if they want to lock down a playoff spot in week sixteen. That means if Buffalo handles business in the 1:00PM window and the Texans trip up (in a really bad way) in the 4:00PM window, the Bills could end Sunday in the playoffs. The sooner the better for the Bills which means rooting for a miracle in this game to get a little celebration in before the night is over.

Optimal Outcome: Raiders victory

Patriots (11-3) @ Ravens (7-7) - Sun 8:20PM 👏👏👏

This game only matters for the Bills in the sense that it buys them some wiggle room in their race for the AFC East title. If the Patriots lose to the Ravens on Sunday night, the Bills game in week seventeen against the Eagles means nothing in the divisional race. That may be some needed wiggle room for the Bills who have a difficult opponent to contend with while the Patriots head to New Jersey to take on the Jete. Wiggle room is optimal, at least in the context of a playoff race.

Optimal Outcome: Ravens victory

49ers (10-4) @ Colts (8-6) - Mon 8:15PM 👏👏👏

The Monday night game featuring the Colts and 49ers is Buffalo’s final opportunity to snag a playoff spot prior to week’s end, assuming the Bills beat the Browns. The Colts still have a prayer at the playoffs if Philip Rivers can drink from the fountain of youth and snag them a few wins down the stretch. For the Bills sake, at least for what we know heading into week sixteen, let’s hope Rivers doesn’t find that fountain and the Colts guarantee the Bills a path to the playoffs.

Optimal Outcome: 49ers victory

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Broncos (12-3)**

2. Jaguars (11-4, 8-2 WLC)**

3. Patriots (11-4, 3-1 DIV, 6-4 WLC)**

4. Steelers (9-6)**

5. Bills (11-4, 3-2 DIV)*

6. Chargers (10-5)*

7. Texans (9-6)*

8. Colts (8-7, 6-4 WLC)

9. Ravens (8-7, 6-5 WLC)

10. Chiefs (7-8)

11. Dolphins (6-9)

12. Bengals (5-10)

13. Jets (4-11)

14. Browns (3-12, H2H win over LVR)

15. Raiders (3-12, H2H loss to CLE)

16. Titans (2-13)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Playoff Odds

Using the New York Time’s NFL Predictor if all games go the optimal route, then the Bills chances at the following are:

• Make Playoffs: 100% (+1%)

• Win Division: 38% (+11%)

• #1 Seed: 6% (+3%)

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #14 Review

Week fourteen was a good one for the Bills primarily because they found a way to beat a Bengals team that is now significantly better than their 4-9 record implies. But that was just one of the positives as the Colts, Ravens, and Chiefs also dropped their respective contest, slightly un-crowding the AFC playoff picture. Unfortunately, the Jaguars, Steelers, Broncos, Texans, and Chargers all one their games resulting in the ninth consecutive non-positive rooting interest, a record since this series inception in 2019.

Rooting Interests Record: 91-81 (LW 7-6)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -19 (LW 0 👏)

Clinching Scenarios

· MAX #5 SEED: BUF LOSS

Falcons (4-9) @ Buccaneers (7-6) - Thu 8:15PM 👏

SOV is always an unlikely tiebreaker but is one worth considering until it is officially eliminated as a possibility. We are getting closer to the elimination of SOV, but not there quite yet. As a result, there are a bunch of games this week where the primary focus is SOV, with this being the first. Luckily, this is a simple one. The Bills beat the Buccaneers and lost to the Falcons thus there is only one outcome of this game that would have a positive effect on Buffalo’s SOV.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers victory

Browns (3-10) @ Bears (9-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

Browns @ Bears represents another opportunity to dive into the SOV tiebreaker for the Bills, but with a twist. The only applicable losses either team has had to an AFC team involve the Ravens and Steelers, two teams the Bills have beaten in 2025. The Browns have lost to the Ravens twice and the Steelers once while the Bears have lost to the Ravens once. Despite the H2H tiebreaker, SOV could be applicable in a unique three-way tie with either of those teams and another wildcard contender. That means we can root to optimize SOV in this game via an NFC over AFC outcome.

Optimal Outcome: Bears victory

Ravens (6-7) @ Bengals (4-9) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

Neither of the Ravens nor Bengals are eliminated from playoff contention, but both teams are on life support. From a Bills perspective, both teams would be annoying matchups in the playoffs despite Buffalo already downing each of them in the regular season. For now, we ignore the possible matchups and focus on locking down a playoff spot for the Bills. The Bengals are no longer applicable in that regard, but the Ravens would be an issue if they win out and Buffalo loses out. End that possibility and in turn essentially eliminate two of the best quarterbacks, and their teams, from the 2025 playoffs.

Optimal Outcome: Bengals victory

Chargers (9-4) @ Chiefs (6-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

The Chiefs are not yet eliminated from the playoffs but with a loss to the Chargers on Sunday they would take another massive step towards that fate. That will result in a good chunk of Bills fans rooting for the Chargers on Sunday, but I’m here to tell you that is silly. Even if Kansas City wins on Sunday their playoff odds would be just 18% (Per The Athletic). Simultaneously, the Bills would be provided with another path into the playoffs especially if they falter in the final weeks of the season. If the inverse were to occur and the Chargers were to win, the Bills would remain in a tight playoff race while the Chiefs still aren’t eliminated from the playoffs. Getting in is more important than keeping another team out.

Optimal Outcome: Chiefs victory

Bills (9-4) @ Patriots (11-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏👏

At this point it remains unlikely that the Bills will be able to win their sixth consecutive AFC East title. That being said, a win this week would be a powerful reminder that that the Bills remain the AFC East’s most dangerous team, and one that no one will want to play in January.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Commanders (3-10) @ Giants (2-11) - Sun 1:00PM

Two of the worst teams in the NFL are set to square off in New Jersey on Sunday in a game with nearly no meaning to the Buffalo Bills. If considering SOV, both the Commanders and Giants have lost to the Chiefs and Broncos while the Commanders have also lost to the Dolphins and the Giants to the Patriots. SOV is not applicable against either of those AFC East teams at this point meaning h outcome of this game has no impact on the 2025 Bills. That means we pivot our rooting interest towards the 2026 draft with the goal to put the #1 pick in the NFC. Allow the Giants to plummet and steal that asset from teams like the Titans and Raiders.

Optimal Outcome: Commanders victory

Raiders (2-11) @ Eagles (8-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

The Eagles are as close to a disaster as an 8-5 team that just won a Super Bowl can be. They have had embarrassing losses, in different ways, each of the past two weeks and now will host the Raiders in a game that could be the ultimate embarrassment for Philly. For Rooting Interest’s sake, let’s hope that doesn’t happen as it would result in a drop in SOS and potential drop in SOV. Root for Philly to win 3 of their final 4, this was included and their week seventeen contest not.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

Jets (3-10) @ Jaguars (9-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

The Jaguars are on a trajectory to win their first division title since 2022. If they don’t accomplish that it’s likely they will be in direct competition with the Buffalo Bills for one of three wildcard spots. That makes them an important figure over the final four weeks of the season, and possibly beyond. In this game we root against them with the added benefit of a Jets win meaning a lower draft stock for the 2026 New York Jets.

Optimal Outcome: Jets victory

Cardinals (3-10) @ Texans (8-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

The Texans are nipping at the Bills heels for playoff positioning just 0.5 games behind Buffalo due to their H2H victory over them. Similar to the Jaguars, that makes them a team that Buffalo needs to keep an eye on down the stretch in order to optimize how the regular season ends. A victory against the lowly Cardinals this week seems all but assured, but rooting for the impossible to become possible is always worth doing.

Optimal Outcome: Cardinals victory

Packers (9-3-1) @ Broncos (11-2) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏

The Broncos are a couple of games away from locking down the AFC West and possibly even the #1 seed. The latter of those possibilities has the potential to come into play for the Bills if these Rooting Interests start to go the Bills way. That means a loss this week by Denver to Green Bay could provide the Bills with a path to the #1 seed and force the rest of the AFC to run through Buffalo.

Optimal Outcome: Packers victory

Lions (8-5) @ Rams (10-3) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

When we have a game with two NFC teams the Bills don’t play, we focus on the SOV of other AFC contenders. Unfortunately, in this game there is only one outcome that fits into that conversation, the Lions loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. At this point it is incredibly unlikely that SOV will come into play for deciding a tiebreaker between Buffalo and Kansas City however, there is a unique 3-way tie scenario that could bring it forward. For that reason, we root against our Lake Erie bro and for improving the Bills playoff standing.

Optimal Outcome: Rams victory

Panthers (7-6) @ Saints (3-10) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

Panthers @ Saints represents an SOV wash for the Bills. Buffalo took care of business against the Panthers in week eight and the Saints in week four. In fact, the only applicable difference between these two teams is that the Panthers lost to the Jaguars, a team where SOV could become important. Surprisingly that means rooting for Tyler Shough (Pronounced Shuck) and Co to handle business against one of the league’s biggest enigmas.

Optimal Outcome: Saints victory

Titans (2-11) @ 49ers (9-4) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

With the Titans eliminated from AFC playoff contention and the 49ers still in the NFC playoff this game is focused fully on SOV. In that context, this is a doozy of an SOV game. The Titans have lost to the Broncos, Colts x2, Texans x2, Patriots, Charger, and Jaguars. The 49ers have lost to the Jaguars and Texans. That means that if the Titans lose this game there is a net benefit of negative SOV connected to the Broncos, Colts x2, Patriots, and Chargers.

Optimal Outcome: 49ers victory

Colts (8-5) @ Seahawks (10-3) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏

The Colts look like they will rely on a 44-year-old quarterback to keep their playoff hopes alive. This same Colts team is likely the biggest threat when it comes to the Bills making or missing the playoffs. With the Texans and Chargers very likely locking up wildcard spots, the Bills will need to stay ahead of the Colts to make the playoffs. For that reason, we root for Seattle to handle business this week and broaden Buffalo’s margin for error in their race to the playoffs.

Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory

Vikings (5-8) @ Cowboys (6-6-1) - Sun 8:20PM 👏

The final game this week where we only care about SOV features the Vikings and Cowboys. In considering that we look the Minnesota’s losses to the Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens as well as the Cowboys loss to the Broncos. The focus here is Chargers versus Broncos as the primary teams where SOV could come into play. There’s a kicker though, the Cowboys play the Chargers in week sixteen, making it feasible there could be a double up here with a Dallas loss. We will root for that.

Optimal Outcome: Vikings victory

Dolphins (6-7) @ Steelers (7-6) - Mon 8:15PM 👏👏

The final game of the week is set up to have major intangible impacts on the Bills. Assuming Buffalo beats New England, they would very much still be in the race for the AFC East title, with one caveat. They would need the Patriots to lose to either the Jets or Dolphins in the final three weeks of the season. They are beating the Jets who are dealing with another miserable season but their game against the Dolphins could be interesting. Keeping Miami in the playoff race would help make a Dolphins victory even more feasible which is precisely why you should root for the Dolphins to down the Steelers in the final game of week fifteen.

Optimal Outcome: Dolphins victory

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Broncos (11-3, 7-2 WLC)**

2. Patriots (11-3, 6-3 WLC)**

3. Jaguars (9-5)**

4. Steelers (7-7)**

5. Bills (10-4)*

6. Chargers (9-5)*

7. Texans (8-6, H2H Win over IND)*

8. Colts (8-6, H2H Loss to HOU)

9. Chiefs (7-7, 4-5 WLC)

10. Dolphins (7-7, 4-6 WLC)

11. Ravens (6-8)

12. Bengals (5-9)

13. Jets (4-10)

14. Browns (3-11)

15. Raiders (2-12, H2H Win over TEN)

16. Titans (2-12, H2H Loss to LVR)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Playoff Odds

Using the New York Time’s NFL Predictor if all games go the optimal route, then the Bills chances at the following are:

• Make Playoffs: >99% (+2%)

• Win Division: 23% (+12%)

• #1 Seed: 13% (+10%)

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #13 Review

The Bills got a much needed win in week thirteen and in the process got some, but not a lot, of help. Buffalo’s win paired with the Chiefs and Ravens losing benefited the Bills. Unfortunately wins by Jacksonville, Houston, Los Angeles (Chargers), Denver, and New England made for another net negative week. Incidentally this is the eight consecutive net negative week for the Bills, matching the longest such streak since I started writing these articles in 2019. In week fourteen, Buffalo must continue winning, and hope that the net negative rooting interest streak does not extend to nine weeks.

Rooting Interests Record: 84-75 (LW 9-6)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -3 (LW -19 👏)

Cowboys (6-5-1) @ Lions (7-5) - Thu 8:15PM 👏

There are four games this week that feature two NFC teams the Bills do not play in the regular season. In those games we root to diminish the SOV of other AFC competitors in an effort to improve Buffalo’s tiebreaking positioning. This is the first of those games which brings into focus Dallas’ loss to the Broncos and Detroit’s loss to the Chiefs. With Buffalo holding an H2H tiebreaker over Kansas City it is far more likely that SOV will be an applicable tiebreaker in a tie with the Broncos.

Optimal Outcome: Lions victory

Seahawks (9-3) @ Falcons (4-8) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

An abnormal game from a rooting interest perspective features an NFC team the Bills will not play in the regular season and an NFC team the Bills lost to in the regular season. That means we still look at SOV, with an eye on SOS, in order to determine optimal outcomes. In that regard the Seahawks have yet to lose to an AFC team while the Falcons have lost to every team that has been a member of the AFC East this millennium (Trivia, who’s the 5^th?) except the Bills. Simple as simple gets here, root for those pesky Falcons to fall to 4-9.

Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory

Bengals (4-8) @ Bills (8-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏👏

The Buffalo Bills likely need at least 11 wins to lock down a playoff spot. A win this week against Cincinnati gets them one step closer to that while all but eliminating Joe Burrow’s Bengals from the playoffs for the fourth time in the past six seasons.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Titans (1-11) @ Browns (3-9) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

It’s rare that an AFC contest has little impact on the Bills in week fourteen, but here we are. The only real route we have for rooting interests here is to drop the SOV of as many AFC competitors as possible. In that context the Titans losses to the Broncos, Colts x2, Texans x2, Patriots, and Jaguars matter while the Browns losses to the Bengals, Ravens x2, Steelers, and Patriots matter as well. With SOV being more likely to apply against the Broncos, Colts, and Jaguars than any of the teams the Browns have lost to, the optimal outcome of this game is decided.

Optimal Outcome: Browns victory

Commanders (3-9) @ Vikings (4-8) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

The second NFC only non-Bills opponents game will include a quarterback battle of Marcus Mariota versus Nine/Max Brosmer. About as gross a battle of quarterbacks as there is in 2025 you should avoid watching this game at all costs. If you do decide to indulge via a second screen do so while knowing you are watching this game with an eye on SOV. That means the Commanders losses to the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Broncos are worth noting as well as the Vikings losses to the Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens. A tough one to judge here but as things stand today, an SOV tiebreaker is more likely to occur with the Chargers than the Broncos which ultimately sets our rooting interest.

Optimal Outcome: Commanders victory

Dolphins (5-7) @ Jets (3-9) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

This is an odd rooting interest that leans into the intangible as opposed to the typical process of looking for tangible optimal outcomes. A Jets win further erodes their draft capital in 2026 which is optimal to future Bills teams but a win by the Dolphins may help the 2025 Bills team. Miami is still “in the hunt” but would need to win out and get a little help along the way to get into the playoffs. One of those wins would have to occur in Week 18 when the Dolphins head to New England to take on the Patriots. IF, and it’s a big IF, the Bills run the table and Miami were to beat the Patriots in Week 18, the Buffalo Bills would take their sixth consecutive AFC East title. Keep Miami’s hope alive, in order to keep the Bills divisional hopes alive.

Optimal Outcome: Dolphins victory

Saints (2-10) @ Buccaneers (7-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

An NFC game which features two teams the Bills have beaten means it’s a wash as far as Buffalo’s SOV goes. Further, the SOV impact a specific outcome could have on other AFC teams would have no real impact with how the Buccaneers and Saints schedule is structured. That means we deviate from 2025 and look to 2026 for the optimal outcome of this game. Heading into week fourteen, the Saints hold the 3^rd pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, ahead of teams like the Jets, Browns, Bengals, and Dolphins. That’s good and keeping them towards the bottom of the draft board is optimal for the future of the Buffalo Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers victory

Colts (8-4) @ Jaguars (8-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

Colts @ Jaguars is a game which requires fairly in-depth analysis to determine the optimal outcome for Bills rooting interests. The winner of this contest moves to 9-4 atop the AFC South while the loser falls to 8-5 and firmly in the AFC wildcard race. For Bills fans, the goal of this game is to get the team that the Bills can most likely surpass or beat in a tiebreaker to be the one that falls into the wildcard race. A Colts loss would see Indy’s WLC fall to 6-4 with the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL (.672 SOS). A Jaguars loss would see Jacksonville’s WLC fall to 5-3, which incidentally matches the Bills 5-3 WLC, with the sixteenth hardest remaining schedule (.500 SOS). For those reasons it is more likely the Bills can pass the Colts in a wildcard race than they can the Jaguars. There is one caveat here, in a three-way tie that includes the Bills, Colts, and Chiefs Buffalo’s H2H win over the Chiefs and the Chiefs H2H win over the Colts is nullified. Things will get really weird if that happens.

Optimal Outcome: Jaguars victory

Steelers (6-6) @ Ravens (6-6) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

Similar to Colts @ Jaguars this game requires deep analysis to determine the optimal outcome, but for different reasons. The winner of this contest moves into first place in the AFC North at 7-6 while the loser falls outside the playoff picture at 6-7. Since the Bills have beaten each of these teams it becomes highly unlikely that either can pass the Bills in the standings whether in a division winner tiebreaker or wildcard one. So how do we determine the optimal outcome here? We look to nullify the possibility that Buffalo’s H2H tiebreaker could be removed via a three-way tie with one of these teams and a 3^rd AFC wildcard contender. That happens to be the Steelers whose win over the Colts presents a scenario where a tie that includes Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Indianapolis drops all the H2H tiebreakers. Keep Pittsburgh atop the AFC North and let Baltimore fall all but out of the playoff race.

Optimal Outcome: Steelers victory

Broncos (10-2) @ Raiders (2-10) - Sun 4:05PM 👏👏

The Denver Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the AFC West title, and in turn have an open path towards the #1 seed in the AFC. The Bills path to that seed isn’t fully closed, yet, but is muddled with requirements from other teams. One of those requirements is a handful of losses from the Broncos which could also have the potential of opening a path to a wildcard if the Broncos do truly collapse. A loss to the Raiders this week would trigger the collapse, so, though unlikely, it’s worth rooting for Las Vegas to take this one.

Optimal Outcome: Raiders victory

Bears (9-3) @ Packers (8-3-1) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

The 4:25 slate of games features two NFC divisional matchups of teams that the Bills don’t play in the 2025 regular season. That means in this juicy game we take a look at the SOV impacts of the Bears or Packers taking the lead in the NFC North. To date the Bears loss against the Ravens represents a part of this analysis while the Packers loss to the Browns comes into play. The Browns aren’t competing for a playoff spot and while the Bills do hold the H2H tiebreaker there is still an outside chance SOV could matter in a tiebreaker with them. Root accordingly.

Optimal Outcome: Packers victory

Rams (9-3) @ Cardinals (3-9) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

The final SOV only contest of the week is matchup between the top and bottom of the NFC West. Unsurprisingly the Rams have not lost to an AFC team while the Cardinals have lost to the Colts and Jaguars. Both of those AFC South teams are prime candidates for an SOV tiebreaker with the Bills meaning as far as SOV rooting interest games go, this is up there in importance.

Optimal Outcome: Rams victory.

Texans (7-5) @ Chiefs (6-6) - Sun 8:20PM 👏👏👏

There is a subset of Buffalo Bills fans that remain so scared of the Kansas City Chiefs that they would rather them miss the playoffs than the Bills make the playoffs. Those fans look at this game and root for the Houston Texans. The proper rooting interest here is for the Texans to lose this game, which coupled with a Bills win in week fourteen would result in Buffalo holding a 1.5 game lead on the wildcard with just four weeks left in the season. The primary goal for Bills fans should be getting into the playoffs, not the Chiefs missing the playoffs.

Optimal Outcome: Chiefs victory

Eagles (8-4) @ Chargers (8-4) - Mon 8:15PM 👏👏👏

The Colts, Chargers, and Bills all head into week fourteen with a record of 8-4 and in position to nab a wildcard spot. That means the Chargers are in direct competition with the Bills not only for a playoff spot, but also for seeding. With Buffalo and Los Angeles not set to meet in the regular season the Bills have no way to obtain the H2H tiebreaker over the Chargers. Couple that with the Chargers 7-2 conference record versus Buffalo’s 5-3 and the Bills need to root for Chargers losses in order to hop them in the standings.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

Bye Week

New England Patriots, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Patriots (11-2)**

2. Broncos (10-3)**

3. Jaguars (9-4)**

4. Steelers (7-6)**

5. Bills (9-4)*

6. Colts (8-5, H2H Win over LAC)*

7. Chargers (8-5, H2H Loss to IND)*

8. Chiefs (7-6, H2H Win over HOU)

9. Texans (7-6, H2H Loss to KC)

10. Ravens (6-7, H2H Win over MIA)

11. Dolphins (6-7, H2H Loss to BAL)

12. Bengals (4-9, H2H Win over CLE)

13. Browns (4-9, H2H Loss to CIN)

14. Raiders (3-10, 3-7 WLC)

15. Jets (3-10, 2-7 WLC)

16. Titans (1-12)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Playoff Odds

Using the New York Time’s NFL Predictor if all games go the optimal route, then the Bills chances at the following are:

• Make Playoffs: 97% (+6%)

• Win Division: 10% (+2%)

• #1 Seed: 6% (+3%)

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #12 Review

The Bills troubling loss will have lasting impacts this season. Not only was it another loss on their record but it was also to an AFC team and one that is competing for a playoff spot alongside the Bills. Add to that a Patriots win, Chiefs win, Ravens win, and Jaguars win and it was all in all a very bad week to root for positives for the Bills. Now heading into Week 13 the Bills are near a must win game with a desperate want for some other games to fall their way.

Rooting Interests Record: 75-69 (LW 6-7)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -16 (LW -3 👏)

Packers (7-3-1) @ Lions (7-4) - Thu 1:00PM 👏

The first game on Thanksgiving represents the first of two NFC only non-Bills opponent games this week. In those games we specifically look at the SOV impact of the two feasible outcomes on other AFC contenders. With that in mind the Packers loss to the Browns (doesn’t really matter) and the Lions loss to the Chiefs are worth noting. The Chiefs loss is by far the more critical of the two meaning we root for the Cheeseheads to snag the appetizer to Sunday’s festivities.

Optimal Outcome: Packers victory

Chiefs (6-5) @ Cowboys (5-5-1) - Thu 4:30PM 👏👏👏

The Chiefs essentially saved their season with an overtime win in Week 12 against the Colts. Now, in Week 11, they will need to beat a resurgent Cowboys team to keep their playoff hopes alive. Sitting just 1.5 games behind the Bills now this game has a ramped-up importance as more Kansas City losses means more paths to the playoffs for the Bills. Enjoy your Turkey Day dinner while rooting for the Chiefs playoff hopes to continue to dwindle.

Optimal Outcome: Cowboys victory

Bengals (3-8) @ Ravens (6-5) - Thu 8:20PM 👏👏👏

The Ravens have a very clear path to an NFC North title and thus hosting a playoff game. That looked nearly impossible after they began the season 1-5. On Thanksgiving night, they look to maintain their trek towards that title by downing a Bengals team whose season is all but over. From a Bills perspective, root for Baltimore to drop this game and re-enter the AFC wildcard picture to content with a team from Buffalo who holds an H2H tiebreaker over them.

Optimal Outcome: Bengals victory

Bears (8-3) @ Eagles (8-3) - Fri 3:00PM 👏

Strength of Victory (SOV) is quickly coming into play as a potential tiebreaker for the Bills in a wildcard race. That means that where applicable we must root for optimal outcomes related to SOV. Incidentally on Black Friday a contest between the 8-3 Bears and 8-3 Eagles represents an opportunity to improve the Bills SOS, and potentially SOV, positioning. Root for an Eagles win here so that the team on the Bills schedule can increase the Bills tiebreaking predicament.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

49ers (8-4) @ Browns (3-8) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

It is highly unlikely a 3-8 team will come into the playoff picture by season’s end. That being said, a lot of highly unlikely things have happened so far in the 2025 season. For that reason, root for the 49ers to beat the Cleveland Browns with the added benefit that it negatively impacts the SOV of Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England, and New Jersey York.

Optimal Outcome: 49ers victory

Jaguars (7-4) @ Titans (1-10) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

The Jaguars now sit in direct competition with the Buffalo Bills for a wildcard spot. Though both the Bills and Jaguars enter this week with a 7-4 record, the Jaguars 4-2 WLC is superior to the Bills 4-3. That means rooting for the worst team in the NFL (Tennessee) to produce what would be the biggest upset of the 2025 season in knocking off the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday.

Optimal Outcome: Titans victory

Texans (6-5) @ Colts (8-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏

The second most important game of the week features the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts. There is an argument to be made that rooting for the Colts to lose increases the Bills odds of acquiring the #1 seed, but that is highly improbably considering how far back Buffalo now is in the AFC East. What is more probable is that Buffalo will be in direct competition for a playoff spot with Houston, a bad position to be in with the Texans possessing the H2H tiebreaker. That means rooting for Indy to win this week to give the Bills some wiggle room in the wildcard picture.

Optimal Outcome: Colts victory

Saints (2-9) @ Dolphins (4-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

This is an abstract rooting interest. If the Dolphins win out, they will finish the season 10-7 with a 4-2 record in the AFC East and a 6-6 record in the AFC and likely worse or same WLG to the Bills. That means that it is highly unlikely the Dolphins can pass the Bills in a playoff race even if each team were to finish 10-7. Instead, what is beneficial, is for Miami to stay in the race through Week 18 with hopes that they can shock the Patriots in Week 18 and the Bills can steal the AFC East title because of it.

Optimal Outcome: Dolphins victory

Falcons (4-7) @ Jets (2-9) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

At 2-9 the New York Jets are not officially eliminated from the playoff picture by unofficially they have been eliminated for quite some time. This week they take on a Falcons team in a contest that has very little impact on the 2025 playoff picture. What this game will have an impact on is how high a divisional foe picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. The better the Jets finish this season, the worse their draft stock will be in a draft that is critical to their future success.

Optimal Outcome: Jets victory

Cardinals (3-8) @ Buccaneers (6-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

An NFC only contest that features one team the Bills have played this season and one team that they unfortunately will not face. The Kyler, wait, Jacoby Brissett led Cardinals head to Tampa to take on the Baker, wait, who will be QB led Buccaneers in a pivotal game for Tampa Bay. From a rooting interest’s perspective this is an opportunity for an SOV gain which can be had if whoever is playing for the Buccaneers can lock down a win in Week 13.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers victory

Rams (9-2) @ Panthers (6-6) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

The Los Angeles Rams feel like the only legitimately good team in the NFL this season. They have the MVP favorite in Matthew Stafford throwing to an elite receiving group with a solid running game to pair. On defense they have a pass rush that won’t quit and a second/third level consisting of multiple playmakers. This week they take on the oddest 6-6 team of all-time in the Panthers in a game which does have an impact on the Bills. With SOV on the line Buffalo fans should root for a Carolina victory to drive up a possibly needed tiebreaker.

Optimal Outcome: Panthers victory

Vikings (4-7) @ Seahawks (8-3) - Sun 4:05PM 👏

This is the second and final NFC only non-Bills opponent’s matchup. That means all of our focus here is on the Vikings losses to the Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens as well as the Seahawks loss to…well…no AFC opponents. That determines the rooting interest for this game, which happens to mean rooting for the team that saw a certain DB tackle a certain Bills kicker at the end of the half resulting in a flag on the Bills some years back.

Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory

Bills (7-4) @ Steelers (6-5) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏👏👏

The Bills need to close out 2025 the way they have closed out many of their past few seasons. Since 2020 from their final game in November through the end of each season the Bills are 27-5. Win this one, go on a run, and make some noise in January/February.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Raiders (2-9) @ Chargers (7-4) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏

The Chargers or the Broncos look like the likely winner of the AFC West, with the Broncos holding a 1.5 game lead with 6 games left to play. That means that one of those two teams will be in direct contention with the Buffalo Bills for a likely wildcard spot. This week the Chargers take on a subpar Raiders team in a contest which Bills fans should keep half an eye on with their primary focus on BUF @ PIT. Root for the Raiders to shock the Chargers and build some cushion in the playoff race.

Optimal Outcome: Raiders victory

Broncos (9-2) @ Commanders (3-8) - Sun 8:20PM 👏👏

Mentioned previously, the Broncos represent one of two teams that could factor into the Bills making the playoffs this season. As of now it looks more likely than not that the Broncos are going to capture their first AFC West title since 2015. But if they do not, or if they do, and Buffalo steals the AFC East, the Bills and the Broncos will affect each other’s playoff seeding. That means while a loss this week by Denver doesn’t have a massive impact on the Bill, it is far and away the optimal outcome of this contest.

Optimal Outcome: Commanders victory

Giants (2-10) @ Patriots (10-2) - Mon 8:15PM 👏👏👏👏

The New York Giants were the first team eliminated from playoff contention while the New England Patriots were the first team to 10 wins. Of course, this is still a game Bills Mafia needs to monitor as their bleak division outlook is dependent on New England dropping some games against lesser opponents. On the Monday following Thanksgiving root for a post Turkey Day miracle and for the Bills path to a sixth consecutive division title to open.

Optimal Outcome: Giants victory

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Patriots (10-3)**

2. Colts (9-3, H2H win over DEN)**

3. Broncos (9-3, H2H loss to IND)**

4. Ravens (6-6)**

5. Bills (8-4)*

6. Jaguars (7-5, H2H Win over LAC)*

7. Chargers (7-5, H2H Loss to JAX)*

8. Texans (6-6, 5-3 WLC, .466. SOV)

9. Steelers (6-6, 5-3 WLC, .452 SOV)

10. Chiefs (6-6, 3-4 WLC)

11. Dolphins (5-7)

12. Bengals (4-8)

13. Raiders (3-9, 3-6 WLC)

14. Jets (3-9, 2-6 WLC, H2H win over CLE)

15. Browns (3-9, 2-6 WLC, H2H loss to NYJ)

16. Titans (2-10)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Playoff Odds

Using the New York Time’s NFL Predictor if all games go the optimal route, then the Bills chances at the following are:

• Make Playoffs: 95% (+15%)

• Win Division: 15% (+7%)

• #1 Seed: 6% (+3%)

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #11 Review

The Bills needed a win on Sunday, and boy did they get a win. It wasn’t pretty at times but ultimately Super Man showed up to propel the Bills to 7-3. Outside of that though there were virtually no completely positive outcomes. Yes, the Chiefs lost, but the Broncos won. Yes, the Chargers lost, but the Jaguars won. On top of that, victories by the Patriots, Texans, Steelers, and Ravens made for another rough week of Rooting Interests. After beginning the season with 5 consecutive net positive weeks, this is the sixth consecutive net negative week. Let’s change that in week twelve, starting with a win by the Bills on Thursday night and a weekend of upsets that fall Buffalo’s way.

Rooting Interests Record: 69-62 (LW 7-7)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -13 (LW -8 👏)

Bills (7-3) @ Texans (5-5) - Thu 8:15PM 👏👏👏👏👏

With a win over the Texans on Thursday night, the Buffalo Bills can take a 2.5 game lead in the wildcard race and keep pace with the New England Patriots. Create a playoff cushion and chase down those pesky Patriots.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Steelers (6-4) @ Bears (7-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

It remains to be seen if Aaron Rodgers will suit up for this game, and with the way the season is trending the Pittsburgh Steelers may just need him. At 6-4 they sit just 1 game ahead of the resurgent Baltimore Ravens who appear healthy and ready to compete for their third consecutive AFC North title. There is an argument to be made here that a Steelers victory makes it less likely the Bills will need to travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens in the playoffs. But with seven games left in the season, tracking that is not the optimal outcome, tracking seeding in a stacked AFC is. Root for DA Bears to take downs Pittsburgh.

Optimal Outcome: Bears victory

Patriots (9-2) @ Bengals (3-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏

For the Bills to have any shot at their sixth consecutive AFC East title they are going to need the Patriots to drop at least one game they shouldn’t. Playing the 3-7 Bengals is a prime opportunity for exactly that to happen, unfortunately Cincinnati will likely be without their best player. Ja’Marr Chase spitting on Jalen Ramsey will likely sideline him this week due to suspension which is a spit in the face of the Bills divisional aspirations. Regardless, this isn’t an impossible task for the Bengals and a win by them this week would likely spark a fire underneath the Bills and this fan base.

Optimal Outcome: Bengals victory

Giants (2-9) @ Lions (6-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

There are only two games this week featuring NFC teams the Bills do not play. As is tradition, in those games we look to the SOV impact on other AFC teams that the two feasible outcomes could have. Focusing on the AFC losses of the Giants and Lions, each has lost to the Chiefs but the Giants have also lost to the Broncos. Though not massively impactful, the Lake Erie Bros beating our buddies from New Jersey is the optimal route for this context.

Optimal Outcome: Lions victory

Vikings (4-6) @ Packers (6-3-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

By the end of the 1:00PM slate on Sunday we will be through the NFC only non-Bills opponents contests. While this doesn’t mean SOV won’t be discussed below (it will) it does mean it will be done so in a much more obvious manner. To close these types of games out though we focus on the Packers loss to the Browns and the Vikings losses to the Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens. Since the Browns will not factor into the AFC playoff picture and the other three AFC teams mentioned might, the optimal outcome becomes quite obvious.

Optimal Outcome: Packers victory

Seahawks (7-3) @ Titans (1-9) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

This game is a bit dicey when dissecting the optimal outcome. One focus could be removing the ability for an AFC team to acquire the #1 pick in the NFL draft, something the Titans are in line for. Another focus could be dropping the SOV of AFC contenders thus providing an outside chance of benefiting the Bills this season. With this game we leverage the latter, which has the added benefit of further preventing the New York Jets from acquiring that all powerful first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory

Colts (8-2) @ Chiefs (5-5) - Sun1:00PM 👏👏👏

The Chiefs aren’t just on the outside looking in at the playoffs, they are on the outside of the outside looking in. At this point Kansas City has losses to the Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars, the three teams who currently hold wildcard spots. As stunning as it would be, there is a legitimate chance the team that has made the conference final in seven consecutive seasons won’t even make it to the dance this season. Despite all that the optimal outcome this week isn’t the Chiefs falling below .500 (Though that would be sweet) instead it’s the 8-2 Colts getting their third loss of the season generating a path for the Bills to steal the #1 seed.

Optimal Outcome: Chiefs victory

Jets (2-8) @ Ravens (5-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

The Ravens are in prime position to make an improbable run to the playoffs after starting the season 1-5. As long as Lamar Jackson remains healthy it should surprise no one if the Ravens run the table and finish around 12-5 and host some playoff games in January. In their way of that 12-5 record this week is the New York Jets who have a new starting quarterback in Tyrod Taylor. It would be a stunner if the Jets pull off this upset, but if they do it would represent the best outcome of this game for the Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Jets victory

Browns (2-8) @ Raiders (2-8) - Sun 4:05PM 👏

This is the most confusing of the games on the week twelve docket to pick an optimal outcome for. Both the Browns and the Raiders represent the AFC and both of them have an abysmal 2-8 record. So where we go here is a bit more abstract than these posts tend to wander into but the explanation leads to an optimal understanding of the optimal outcome. The Browns play in the AFC North, a division the Bills play against this season. That means against each of the four teams in that division the Bills will, or will not, hold an H2H tiebreaker. The Raiders play in the AFC West where the only team where an H2H tiebreaker will come into play for the Bills is against the Chiefs. That means it is more likely that SOV will come into play against the AFC West (DEN & LAC) than the AFC North (PIT & BAL).

Optimal Outcome: Browns victory

Jaguars (6-4) @ Cardinals (3-7) - Sun 4:05PM 👏👏

There are 16 teams with a record above .500 heading into week twelve of the 2025 season. Among those teams the Jaguars are tied for 10^th in point differential at +14. There are weeks where they look dominant (WK11: 35-6 vs LAC) and weeks where they look horrendous (WK7: 35-7 vs LAR). What this team is remains to be seen however, they have solid wildcard positioning with an outside shot to win the AFC South. Neither of those things are particularly exciting from a Bills perspective at this point in the year, so root for Arizona to shock the world and down the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.

Optimal Outcome: Cardinals victory

Eagles (8-2) @ Cowboys (4-5-1) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

The Eagles may be 8-2 but they have very real football and locker room issues. The same could have been said in 2024 though, and how did that end for Philly? This week they head to Dallas to try and end the Cowboys season which has featured equal parts desperation and future roster building. From a Bills perspective each of these teams could factor into future aspirations but right now and Eagles victory bumps Buffalo’s SOS while a Cowboys win has 0 positives for the Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

Falcons (3-7) @ Saints (2-8) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

The final three games of this week’s rooting interests include AFC South teams that the Bills have already played against this season. In the first of those three games is the Falcons and Saints, two teams far inferior to the Bills. Unfortunately for Buffalo, that inferiority only applied on the field against the Saints as they found a way to lose to the Falcons. That sets up the rooting interest for this game as a win by the Saints increases the Bills SOV while a win by the Falcons does just the opposite.

Optimal Outcome: Saints victory

Buccaneers (6-4) @ Rams (8-2) - Sun 8:20PM 👏

On Sunday night the team the Bills just beat heads to Los Angeles to take on what very well may be the best team in the NFL. Still, this has all the makings of a fun football game to watch as the Sunday slate wraps up. For Bills fans they obviously want the Buccaneers to win for the SOV benefit while simultaneously keeping an eye on a Rams team they very well may need to beat if they want to hoist the Lombardi trophy.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers victory

Panthers (6-5) @ 49ers (7-4) - Mon 8:15PM 👏

The final game of week twelve takes place on Monday night when the surprising Panthers head to San Francisco to take on a 49ers team who may have a QB2 at QB1. While the records of these two teams appear to be close the point differential tells a different story. At -42 on the season the Panthers have a worse point differential than the Arizona Cardinals while the 49ers who are at +9 have a better point differential than the Los Angeles Chargers. An odd game from a betting standpoint but a clear one from a rooting interest’s standpoint as a Panthers victory triggers an SOV bump for the Buffalo Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Panthers victory

Bye Week

Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Broncos (9-2)**

2. Patriots (9-3)**

3. Colts (8-3)**

4. Steelers (6-5)**

5. Bills (8-3)*

6. Chargers (7-4)*

7. Jaguars (6-5, H2H win over KC)*

8. Chiefs (6-5, H2H loss to JAX)

9. Texans (5-6, H2H win over BAL)

10. Ravens (5-6, H2H loss to HOU)

11. Bengals (4-7, 4-3 WLC)

12. Dolphins (4-7, 2-6 WLC)

13. Jets (3-8, H2H Win over CLE)

14. Browns (3-8, H2H Loss to NYJ)

15. Raiders (2-9)

16. Titans (1-10)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Playoff Odds

Using the New York Time’s NFL Predictor if all games go the optimal route, then the Bills chances at the following are:

• Make Playoffs: 98% (+20%)

• Win Division: 31% (+24%)

• #1 Seed: 21% (+14%)

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #10 Review

What can you say for the Bills showing in week ten against the Dolphins other than ew. There are lots of things this Buffalo team needs to fix, and they need to start fixing it now. That means beating the Buccaneers this week and continuing to stack more wins in weeks after. Making matters worse for Buffalo though is they aren’t getting much help around the NFL as AFC contenders keep winning. In week ten that included the Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Texans, and Chargers. This is all making the Bills grasp on the playoffs tenuous at best meaning there will be plenty of contests to monitor outside of Buffalo’s in week eleven.

Rooting Interests Record: 62-55 (LW 8-5)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -5 (LW -4 👏)

Jets (2-7) @ Patriots (8-2) - Thu 8:15PM 👏👏👏👏

With the Bills surprise loss to the Dolphins and the Patriots refusal to drop another game, the Bills consecutive division title streak is in jeopardy. The loss to the Dolphins is especially damning because it provides the Patriots with two tiebreakers (H2H & DIV) over the Bills. That means in order for the Bills to hop the Patriots in division they are either going to need an outright better record or to see the Pats drop a game to the Jets or Dolphins. Incidentally, the Patriots host the Jets on Thursday night, providing for an opportunity to make the division race much closer.

Optimal Outcome: Jets victory

Commanders (3-7) @ Dolphins (3-7) - Sun 9:30AM 👏👏

Despite their victory over the Bills, it remains highly unlikely that the Miami Dolphins will be able to hop the Bills in the standings. It would likely require them to win out and the Bills finishing 3-5 (or worse) in their final 8 games. If that happens the playoffs are off the table for the Bills but when we look at rooting interests, we look for optimal outcomes. This week that remains Miami losing with a loss all but ending any chance they have of entering the playoff conversation.

Optimal Outcome: Commanders victory

Panthers (5-5) @ Falcons (3-6) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

Both the Panthers and Falcons remain enigmas as far as this season is concerned. The Panthers recently beat the Green Bay Packers and then lost to the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons beat the Buffalo Bills but got blown out by the Miami Dolphins. What either of these teams are is an answer not many have, but an answer we do have is what makes for an optimal outcome here, and it has to do with bumping SOV.

Optimal Outcome: Panthers victory

Buccaneers (6-3) @ Bills (6-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏👏

The Buffalo Bills need to start stacking wins. This is required not only to remain in the division race, but at this point to make the playoffs as well. Start that this week when hosting the 6-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game each of these teams will be pulling out all the stops to win.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Texans (4-5) @ Titans (1-8) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

The Houston Texans kept their season alive in week ten via an improbable win over the Jacksonville Jaguars led by backup QB, Davis Mills. This makes them a danger for the rest of the AFC as starter CJ Stroud is do bac k in short order, and with a competent offense and one of the league’s best defenses Houston can be a problem. Root for them to drop this one to the lowly Titans thus providing the Buffalo Bills with more wiggle room in the wildcard picture.

Optimal Outcome: Titans victory

Bears (6-3) @ Vikings (4-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

This week there are four games featuring two NFC teams that the Bills do not face in the regular season. In those games we root to lower the SOV of key AFC competition by targeting optimal outcomes. In that context the Bears loss to the Ravens and the Vikings losses to the Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens loom large. This is obvious, the net difference in losses is +2 towards the Vikings meaning we root for them to drop this one and negatively impact the Steelers and Chargers.

Optimal Outcome: Bears victory

Packers (5-3-1) @ Giants (2-8) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

Another game where the primary focus is the SOV of AFC opponents. That means the Packers loss to the Browns (weird) and the Giants losses to the Chiefs and Broncos are of concern. The Browns don’t appear to be a factor in the AFC playoff picture this season while the Bills H2H victory over the Chiefs makes an SOV tiebreaker there very unlikely. But the SOV of the Broncos is something that very much could come into play, especially with no clear path for the Bills to gain any other major tiebreakers over them.

Optimal Outcome: Packers victory

Bengals (3-6) @ Steelers (5-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

Bengals @ Steelers, much like Chargers @ Jaguars, is a difficult game to optimize. On the one hand, a Bengals loss essentially eliminates another team from wildcard contention at the expense of making seeding a more difficult to gain via a Steelers victory. On the other hand, a Bengals victory brings another AFC team to .500 opening up new paths to the playoffs at the expense of keeping Cincinnati in playoff contention. That’s the direction we are going to go here as a 4-6 Bengals and 5-5 Steelers is more palatable than a 3-7 Bengals and 6-4 Steelers.

Optimal Outcome: Bengals victory

Chargers (7-3) @ Jaguars (5-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

The same analysis we did in Bengals @ Steelers applies to Chargers @ Jaguars. Each of these teams are in direct competition for playoff spots the Bills are trying to get their hands on. Avoiding another team getting to 8 wins this early in the season is a requirement as far as rooting interests are concerned. That means we root to middle records here by applying another loss to the Chargers at the expense of the Jaguars moving to a .600 record.

Optimal Outcome: Jaguars victory

Seahawks (7-2) @ Rams (7-2) - Sun 4:05PM 👏

The third of four NFC only look at SOV contests also appears to be the game of the week. The winner of this contest controls the NFC West while the loser falls clearly into the wildcard bucket. For Bills fans note that neither the Seahawks nor the Rams have lost to an AFC team meaning our focus shifts from SOV to potential SOV. In that context the Rams have already played and beaten every AFC team on their schedule while the Seahawks still have a big contest against the Indianapolis Colts on December 14. That is an opportunity for Indy to gain a nice bump in SOV meaning that losses by the Seahawks now potentially reduce the SOV the Colts could gain from a win later in the season.

Optimal Outcome: Rams victory

49ers (6-4) @ Cardinals (3-6) - Sun 4:05PM 👏

The fourth and final SOV only content features the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals. Applicable games to consider in this analysis are the 49ers losses to the Jaguars and Texans as well as the Cardinals loss to the Colts. As surprising as it may be this is a 2 versus 1 conversation meaning we root for the Jacoby Brissett led birds to take down the Mac Jones led miners.

Optimal Outcome: Cardinals victory

Ravens (4-5) @ Browns (2-7) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏

The Baltimore Ravens are looking more and more like they are going to be the team that takes the AFC North. They may be just 4-5 at this point in the season but they appear to be ascending while the Steelers and the rest of the AFC North appear to be on the downswing. A win by Baltimore this week makes that trend even more apparent thus making Buffalo’s path out of the AFC all the more difficult. BUT, if the Ravens were to drop this game to the Cleveland Browns and fall to 4-6, not only does the AFC North become a significantly less likely path into the playoffs for Baltimore but also makes the wildcard even more unlikely.

Optimal Outcome: Browns victory

Chiefs (5-4) @ Broncos (8-2) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏

The Broncos season is playing out in a very similar way to the Patriots which has resulted in parallel story lines for the Bills and Chiefs. This game is a massive one on the week eleven docket as a loss by Kansas City this week all but locks them out of competing for the AFC West. Even more damning, a loss by the Chiefs would see them fall to 5-5 and keep them outside the playoff picture 10 games into the 2025 season. But these posts look for optimal outcomes and none of that is optimal at this point. Instead, a victory by the Chiefs knocks another contender down a peg improving seeding possibilities while simultaneously guaranteeing the Chiefs won’t pass the Bills in playoff standings this week.

Optimal Outcome: Chiefs victory

Lions (6-3) @ Eagles (7-2) - Sun 8:20PM 👏

SOV is a tiebreaker that very well may come into play for the Bills this season. Heading into this week, among the 7 current AFC playoff teams, the Buffalo Bills SOV ranks #6, ahead of only rh Denver Broncos. That means that any opportunity to improve the Bills SOV, or even the potential to improve it should be considered and targeted. In Lions @ Eagles that means rooting against a Lake Erie Bro for the possibility that a week seventeen victory over the Eagles could provide a much-needed tiebreaker bump.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

Cowboys (3-5-1) @ Raiders (2-7) - Mon 8:15PM 👏

The final game of week eleven also appears to be one of the more boring games on the schedule. The 3-5-1 Cowboys versus the 2-7 Las Vegas Raiders? You shouldn’t watch this. But if you do root against Las Vegas for no other reason than an AFC loss is nice with the added benefit of SOV reductions to a handful of other AFC contenders.

Optimal Outcome: Cowboys victory

Bye Week

Indianapolis Colts. New Orleans Saints

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Colts (8-2)**

2. Patriots (8-3, 5-2 WLC)**

3. Broncos (8-3, 5-3 WLC)**

4. Steelers (5-5)**

5. Bills (7-3)*

6. Chargers (7-4)*

7. Jaguars (6-4, H2H win over KC)*

8. Chiefs (6-4, H2H loss to JAX)

9. Bengals (4-6, 3-0 DIV, 4-2 WLC)

10. Texans (4-6, 3-3 WLC, H2H win over BAL)

11. Ravens (4-6, 1-1 DIV, H2H loss to HOU)

12. Jets (3-7, H2H win over CLE)

13. Browns (3-7, H2H loss to NYJ)

14. Dolphins (3-8)

15. Raiders (2-8, H2H win over TEN)

16. Titans (2-8, H2H loss to LVR)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #9 Review

As with most weeks, the most important outcome for the Bills was the outcome of their own game. It may have gotten a bit tight at the end, but the Bills downed the Chiefs in what was their first complete game of this NFL season. That kept the Bills inline to compete for another AFC East title and dropped the Chiefs into third in their own division and currently outside the AFC playoff picture. That unfortunately was the only true positive outcome of this week for the Bills with the Bengals and Colts losing representing nice outcomes, but not major ones. Meanwhile the Patriots, Ravens, Chargers, Broncos, Jaguars, and Steelers all won their game keeping a crowded AFC playoff picture still heavily populated. Let’s hope Buffalo maintains their winning ways this week while this rash of AFC contenders continuing to win takes a sabbatical over the next couple of NFL sessions.

Rooting Interests Record: 54-50 (LW 5-8)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -1 (LW -8 👏)

Raiders (2-6) @ Broncos (7-2) - Thu 8:15PM 👏👏👏

Seven of the Broncos nine games have been one-score games. In those games Denver is 5-2 with victories over Cam Ward, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Jaxon Dart, and Davis Mills. Are the Broncos good, or fine? This week probably won’t answer that question as they are set to take on a Raiders team that we know isn’t any good. For the Bills though, it’s important that the Broncos start dropping games so that the path to the #1 seed becomes more direct.

Optimal Outcome: Raiders victory

Falcons (3-5) @ Colts (7-2) - Sun 9:30AM 👏👏👏

The Colts think they are in a legitimate Super Bowl window with Daniel Jones at quarterback and as a result are going all in. This led them to make a blockbuster move at the trade deadline as they acquired All-Pro corner, Sauce Gardner. Like the Broncos there are plenty of questions surrounding this team and just how good they are. That doesn’t particularly matter in week ten though as the Colts are currently in the Bills way of acquiring the #1 seed meaning a Sunday morning loss by the Colts in Berlin is a boon for the Buffalo Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Falcons victory

Giants (2-7) @ Bears (5-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

The Giants have the future in Jaxon Dart who possesses much of the same swagger that Josh Allen had as a rookie. That should be exciting for Big Blue fans and make for a solid contest on Sunday afternoon against the Bears. When searching for a rooting interest in this game we do the ‘ol SOV of opposing AFC teams since this is an NFC only non-Bills opponent contest. In that context the Giants have lost to the Chiefs and Broncos while the Bears have lost to the Ravens. With Buffalo holding H2H wins over the Chiefs and Ravens the most likely use of SOV would occur against the Broncos which solidifies the optimal outcome for this contest.

Optimal Outcome: Bears victory

Bills (6-2) @ Dolphins (2-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏👏

The Bills played exceptional football against the Chiefs in all three phases on their way to a week nine win. Avoid a letdown game this week and trounce a rudderless Dolphins team to improve to 7-2.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Ravens (3-5) @ Vikings (4-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

The Ravens are coming for the AFC North title, and if they can find their way into the playoffs, they will be a problem for the rest of the AFC. To accomplish that they must finish the season 7-2 (or better), which seems feasible with their remaining schedule. A loss to a team like the Vikings makes that much more difficult though, and from a rooting interest’s perspective avoiding allowing a team of the Ravens caliber into the playoffs is every bit of optimal.

Optimal Outcome: Vikings victory

Browns (2-6) @ Jets (1-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

The Jets began the complete rebuild of their roster by shipping away Sauce Gardner AND Quinnen Williams in exchange for three 1^st round picks and a 2^nd round pick. Add this to the high pick they are expected to get by year’s end and the New York Jets appear as though they will control the next couple of NFL Drafts. At this point, that’s how the Jets win and what is best for the Bills is the Jets losing. So, in a roundabout way, the Jets winning and Browns losing this week is Buffalo’s best strategy resulting in the Jets losing.

Optimal Outcome: Jets victory

Patriots (7-2) @ Buccaneers (6-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏

The Patriots keep finding ways to win, and with a historically easy schedule that makes them more of a problem than they should be. This week they take on the first of two remaining teams with a >.500 record, the Bills being the other. This is about as close to a must lose as you will find this early in the season as there don’t appear to be many more losses on the Patriots schedule. So, if you want the Bills to win their sixth consecutive AFC East title and in turn have a shot at the #1 seed, root for Baker and Co to ball out this weekend.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers victory

Saints (1-8) @ Panthers (5-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

An odd game as far as rooting interest go. This is an NFC only contest featuring two teams that the Buffalo Bills have played and beaten. That means the outcome of this game has no impact on Buffalo’s SOV or SOS. This means we look towards the SOV impact this game could have on opposing AFC teams as the determining factor in who to root for. Each of these teams has lost to the Patriots BUT the Panthers have also lost to the Jaguars. That means that as of today a loss by Carolina has the optimal impact on the Bills playoff chances by improving their tiebreaking chances.

Optimal Outcome: Saints victory

Jaguars (5-3) @ Texans (3-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

The Jaguars held on to beat the Las Vegas Raiders in a game which would have been a devastating loss to their playoff aspirations. This week they take on a Texans team that may be forced to start Davis Mills while C.J. Stroud deals with concussion symptoms. That could be a break for the Jaguars who have looked high and low all season and need to snag a division win this week. A loss on the other hand increases the odds of the Bills making the playoffs via a wildcard, if necessary, which is optimal in the current state of the AFC.

Optimal Outcome: Texans victory

Cardinals (3-5) @ Seahawks (6-2) - Sun 4:05PM 👏

The four o’clock window in week ten consists of three NFC only matchups featuring teams the Bills will not face in the regular season. Of course, that means for each of these games we look at the effect each could have on the SOV of other AFC teams. Considering that, the Cardinals have lost to the Titans and Colts while the Seahawks have yet to drop a game against an AFC opponent. This one’s as clear as a sunny day with and could have surprisingly major ramifications given the Colts current AFC standing.

Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory

Rams (6-2) @ 49ers (6-3) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

Game two of the four o’clock window provides yet another opportunity to improve the Bills tiebreaking disadvantages into advantages. Looking at SOV, the Rams have not lost to an AFC team while the 49ers have lost to the Jaguars and Texans. SOV is highly unlikely to come into play against Houston, with Buffalo set to play them in week twelve, but the Jaguars, well it could matter there.

Optimal Outcome: Rams victory

Lions (5-3) @ Commanders (3-6) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

This is the final game this week where we look towards tiebreakers of AFC opponents as the determining factor of optimal outcome. Thus far both the Lions and Commanders have losses to the Chiefs, and no other AFC teams. That means the SOV impact of this contest is a wash which shifts us to tiebreaker #5 SOS. Important teams to note in that contest are the Lions games against Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh as well as the Commanders games against Los Angeles (Chargers) and Denver. Of the five cities named, the most compelling to have a drop in SOS is the Broncos, which is where we will attack the rooting interest.

Optimal Outcome: Lions victory

Steelers (5-3) @ Chargers (6-3) - Sun 8:20PM 👏👏

The Steelers may have exposed a paper tiger in the Indianapolis Colts, and in the process have maintained their lead in the AFC North. This week they take on another team that may be better on paper than they are on the field in the Los Angeles Chargers. To be fair, the Chargers have suffered heavily from the injury bug with things only getting worse as of late with stud OL, Joe Alt, out for the season. This one is a bit of a toss up as both the Steelers and Chargers have nearly the same record, but with Buffalo set to play the Steelers later this season, them winning this week give the Bills more control over their own destiny than a Chargers victory does.

Optimal Outcome: Steelers victory

Eagles (6-2) @ Packers (5-2-1) - Mon 8:15PM 👏

This is arguably the best game of the week and very well may determine the #1 seed in the NFC. Eagles @ Packers is a heavyweight contest featuring two teams with oodles of talent that tend to get in their own ways more than they should. Rooting Interests looks at this game through the lens of SOS however, with the Eagles on the Bills regular season schedule and the Packers not a potential opponent until February.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

Bye Week

Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Bills (7-2)**

2. Colts (7-3, H2H win over DEN)**

3. Broncos (7-3, H2H loss to IND)**

4. Steelers (6-3)**

5. Patriots (7-3)*

6. Chargers (6-4)*

7. Jaguars (5-4, H2H win over KC)*

8. Chiefs (5-4, H2H loss to JAX)

9. Texans (4-5)

10. Bengals (3-6, 3-2 WLC)

11. Raiders (3-6, 3-4 WLC)

12. Ravens (3-6, 2-3 WLC)

13. Jets (2-7, H2H win over CLE)

14. Browns (2-7, H2H loss to NYJ)

15. Dolphins (2-8)

16. Titans (1-8)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #8 Review

The most important part of week eight was that the Buffalo Bills win their game. They did that, but that’s about the extent of positives this week. The -17 👏 is the worst week since week nine in 2022 (-18). The Chargers won. The Dolphins won. The Patriots won. The Ravens won. The Texans won. The Broncos won. The Colts won. The Chiefs won. In fact, the only true positive outcomes from a Buffalo Bills rooting interests were the Bengals and Steelers losing. Regardless, all the Bills can keep doing is winning and if they do that at some point the tide will turn in their direction…hopefully beginning this week.

Rooting Interests Record: 49-42 (LW 3-9)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: +7 (LW -17 👏)

Ravens (2-5) @ Dolphins (2-6) - Thu 8:15PM 👏👏

The first game of the week is an odd one to discuss from a rooting interest’s perspective. Typically speaking we root against division foes until they are all but eliminated from competing for the AFC East title, but this week we are going a different direction. The Dolphins enter this week at 2-6 with an H2H loss to the Bills and a WLC of 1-5. If Miami is somehow able to pass the Buffalo Bills in the standings, then it is highly unlikely the Bills will make the playoffs. That means you can safely root for the Dolphins to win their contest on Thursday night against Vegas’ favorite to win the AFC North.

Optimal Outcome: Dolphins victory

Bears (4-3) @ Bengals (3-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

The Bengals suffered a devastating loss to the New York Jets in week eight and are now on life support heading into week nine. They need to find a way to make it until approximately week sixteen, to get Joe Burrow back, without dropping more than two games. With contests against the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens x2, and Bills on the horizon that seems like a tall task. Lose to the Bears this week and that tall task becomes nearly impossible making Burrow’s potential return near worthless. Make it worthless and make the wildcard picture less crowded after the midway point of the season.

Optimal Outcome: Bears victory

Vikings (3-4) @ Lions (5-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

There are four NFC only matchups this week that feature teams the Bills do not play in the regular season. That is a rough go for rooting interests and something we simply need to get through this week. The first of those games features the Vikings and Lions meaning we need to target to the SOV impact of each of these teams winning this week in the context of other AFC teams. The Vikings have lost to the Steelers and Chargers while the Lions have lost to the Chiefs. SOV is more likely to be applied to the Chargers than any of the three AFC teams listed meaning we root for the team that lost to them to lose this game.

Optimal Outcome: Lions victory

Panthers (4-4) @ Packers (5-1-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

SOV is a rarely used tiebreaker but it is the 4^th most important one meaning it is one we can consider. Heading into week nine the Bills have the 29^th ranked SOV meaning any help they can get in that tiebreaker will be beneficial heading into the homestretch of the season. In a matchup featuring the Panthers, who the Bills just beat, and the Packers, who the Bills won’t play in the regular season, there is but one outcome that benefits the Bills SOV, and that is optimal.

Optimal Outcome: Panthers victory

Chargers (5-3) @ Titans (1-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

The first three games of the Chargers season had them looking like potential Super Bowl favorites. Since then, they have dropped 3 of 5 including losses to the Giants, Commanders, and Colts. It’s not clear what they quite are but we know they are better than bad. A team we know is bad is the Titans who look like one of the league’s worst franchises and are a few days away from a complete fire sale. That makes this optimal outcome clear, root for the team who already knows their season is over to down the team who thinks their season till has potential.

Optimal Outcome: Titans victory

Falcons (3-4) @ Patriots (6-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏

The Patriots keep finding ways to win games and sit at a surprising 6-2 just eight weeks into the season. With nine weeks left in the season the Patriots have just two games remaining against teams with more than three wins (Buccaneers & Bills). That means Bills Mafia needs to start rooting for some upsets and what better time to do that than now. Root for the Falcons to upset the Patriots in Foxborough on Sunday by leaning into Bijan Robinson and trusting that rushing attack to down a Patriots defense which can be got if you do things the right way.

Optimal Outcome: Falcons victory

49ers (5-3) @ Giants (2-6) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

Another NFC only matchup featuring teams the Bills don’t play in the regular season means we eye the SOV of contending AFC teams. In that context the 49ers have lost to the Jaguars and Texans while the Giants have lost to the Chiefs and Broncos. The Jaguars and Broncos are the most likely SOV opponents of the Bills with the Broncos holding a significantly higher record than the Jaguars. Because of that we root against the team that lost to the Broncos in an effort to drop their SOV and raise the Bills tiebreaking potential.

Optimal Outcome: 49ers Victory

Colts (7-1) @ Steelers (4-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

Some people had the Indianapolis Colts winning the AFC South (I did) but very few had them being the AFC’s #1 seed. Right now, and regardless of outcomes this week, the Indianapolis Colts are the AFC’s #1 seed. That means if the Buffalo Bills have any hope of taking the #1 seed in the AFC they need the Colts to start losing ASAP. To that point, this week a loss would be optimal, with the simultaneous benefit of generating a more difficult path for the always dangerous Ravens making the playoffs.

Optimal Outcome: Steelers victory

Broncos (6-2) @ Texans (3-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

Broncos at Texans is a feature game this week and will go a long way in determining how each of these team’s seasons end. A Broncos win here will set them up on a path to steal the AFC West while a Texans win will go a long way in assuring they make the playoffs. For the Bills optimal right now is seeding, meaning that dropping a possible division winner down a peg is more important then removing a sub .500 team from the playoff picture.

Optimal Outcome: Texans victory

Jaguars (4-3) @ Raiders (2-5) - Sun 4:05PM 👏👏

The Jacksonville Jaguars leave their bye week with the AFC South slowly slipping from their grasp. They currently site 2 games behind the Indianapolis Colts who they luckily play two times in the homestretch of this season. In order to make those games matter the Jaguars are going to need win all the games left on their schedule that they should win, including this contest against the Raiders. If they drop this game though, it further opens a backdoor to the playoffs that the Bills may need if they stumble and can’t catch the New England Patriots.

Optimal Outcome: Raiders victory

Saints (1-7) @ Rams (5-2) - Sun 4:05PM 👏

The Saints have made the move from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough in an effort to save their season (or quietly tank it). Oddly enough Rattler is likely the better of the two but despite that Shough will lead the Saints into Los Angeles to take on a solid Rams team. From a Bills perspective that isn’t great as a victory by the Saints increases their SOS and SOV while a loss by them does exactly the opposite.

Optimal Outcome: Saints victory

Chiefs (5-3) @ Bills (5-2) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏👏👏

The Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season and lose to the Chiefs in the playoffs. The Chiefs beat the Bills in the playoffs and lose to the Bills in the regular season. There’s an argument to be made that maybe there is some juju to be gained by flipping the script this season. But rooting interests can’t go there, get the win and start stacking.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Seahawks (5-2) @ Commanders (3-5) - Sun 8:20PM 👏

The final two games of week nine feature four NFC teams the Bills do not play in the regular season. The first of those two pits the Seahawks versus the Commanders in a game consisting of two teams going two different directions. Those paths don’t matter to Bills fans though as we eye the SOV tiebreaker and the impact of this game on other AFC contenders. In that context the Seahawks have yet to lose to an AFC team while the Commander have lost to the Chiefs. Cut and dry here.

Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory

Cardinals (2-5) @ Cowboys (3-4-1) - Mon 8:15PM 👏

The final game of the week is the final opportunity we have to discuss SOV. Thus far the Cardinals have lost to the Titans and the Colts while the Cowboys have lost to the Broncos. The Cardinals loss to the Titans is inconsequential but as of today their loss to the Colts is more important than the Cowboys loss to the Broncos. Root accordingly.

Optimal Outcome: Cowboys victory

Bye Week

Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Colts (7-2)**

2. Bills (6-2)**

3. Broncos (6-3)**

4. Steelers (5-3)**

5. Patriots (6-3)*

6. Chargers (5-4, H2H win over KC)*

7. Chiefs (5-4, H2H loss to LAC)*

8. Jaguars (4-4, H2H win over HOU)

9. Texans (4-4, H2H loss to JAX)

10. Raiders (3-5)

11. Bengals (3-6, 3-2 WLC)

12. Dolphins (3-6, 2-5 WLC)

13. Ravens (2-6, H2H win over CLE)

14. Browns (2-6, H2H loss to BAL)

15. Titans (2-7)

16. Jets (1-7)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #7 Review

The Bills did not lose this week! That’s the good news. The bad news is the bye week for the Bills didn’t go that great. Sure, teams like the Steelers, Jaguars, and Texans lost but there were much more impactful wins throughout the week that went against the Bills. The Patriots win kept them atop the AFC East while victories from the Chiefs, Broncos, and Colts kept the top of the AFC super competitive with the final half of the season expected to be a dogfight for seeding. Buffalo needs to get back on track this week with a win to maintain pace with their competition while a week full of important games provides opportunities for Buffalo to skyrocket up the standings.

Rooting Interests Record: 46-33 (LW 7-8)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: +24 (LW -4 👏)

Vikings (3-3) @ Chargers (4-3) - Thu 8:20PM 👏👏👏

Week eight starts with a battle of teams desperately trying to stay relevant this season. In the first three weeks of the season the Vikings and Chargers were a combined 5-1, since then they are a combined 2-5. Injuries are a key factor for each of these teams struggles over the past few weeks, but in a 2025 where injuries seem to be riddling the best teams league wide the response to such an occurrence is “figure it out”. Well, let’s hope the Chargers don’t do that and continue their tumble out of the AFC playoff picture.

Optimal Outcome: Vikings victory

Dolphins (1-6) @ Falcons (3-3) - Sun 8:15PM 👏👏

At 1-6 not only is the Miami Dolphins season likely over, so too is this iteration of the franchise. Mike McDaniel will imminently be sent to frigid Siberia, a wish come true, while Tua Tagovailoa’s regression to one of the league’s worst passers has raised questions about his NFL future. But hey, there’s still a chance they can turn it around and rattle off 10 consecutive wins and finish the season 11-6! HAHAHA, put them out of their misery this week via a statement loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

Optimal Outcome: Falcons victory

Jets (0-7) @ Bengals (3-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

This season a good line of demarcation for playoff teams appears to be 7 losses. Any more than that and you aren’t making the playoffs in the AFC and even with 7 losses are likely on the outside looking in pending tiebreakers. The New York Jets happen to be the first team this season to reach 7 losses and are just one of three teams with fewer than two wins (Ravens = 1, Saints = 1). We could root against the Jets this week and guarantee that their season is over BUT we are going to go in a different direction. Root for the Jets to pick up their first win and begin to tank their draft stock while knocking off the Bengals and getting another AFC team closer to that 7 loss Mendoza line.

Optimal Outcome: Jets victory

Browns (2-5) @ Patriots (5-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏

Outside of the Bills return to action this is the biggest game for Bills Mafia to monitor this week. Heading into week eight the New England Patriots sit atop the AFC East with 1 more win than the Bills plus the all-important H2H tiebreaker. This week they take on a Cleveland Browns team that just trounced the Miami Dolphins 31-6. Hear me out, this game has upset alert written all over it. The Browns offense is terrible, but their defense can give opposing quarterbacks fits, something we have not seen Drake Maye fall victim to this season.

Optimal Outcome: Browns victory

Giants (2-5) @ Eagles (5-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

Much like the Buffalo Bills the Philadelphia Eagles had questions swirling around them after a week six loss. The Bills entered their bye week while the Eagles began to answer some questions by beating the Vikings in Minnesota. This week Philly heads back home to take on the up-start Giants who were the very team that beat them in week six. It’s safe to expect a different outcome this time around, an outcome which benefits the Bills SOS moving forward.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

Bills (4-2) @ Panthers (4-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏👏

In Sean McDermott’s career as the Buffalo Bills Head Coach the franchise is 8-0 following the bye week. This week the Bills head to Carolina following their bye in something that feels like (but isn’t) a must-win game. Win this one, get back on track, and get ready for the league’s biggest talent showcase next week in Buffalo.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Bears (4-2) @ Ravens (1-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

The Bills game may not necessarily be a must-win, but this game surely is for the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore’s schedule does get much easier in the homestretch of the season but 1-6 seems like an insurmountable record to come back from. They may need to avoid that record without star quarterback, Lamar Jackson, who is still dealing with a hamstring issue. He will return at some point this season and for the rest of the AFC’s sake, let’s hope that the Ravens season is over before Jackson can pull them back from the brink of the abyss.

Optimal Outcome: Bears victory

49ers (5-2) @ Texans (2-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

It wasn’t that long ago that the Houston Texans were the NFL’s darling and an in vogue pick to win the Super Bowl. Now they are struggling to find a footing in the AFC South with an offense that can’t get out of their own way and a defense that can only do so much to keep them in games. Hosting the 5-2 49ers this week presents another difficult challenge for a reeling Texans team who can ill-afford to get their 5^th loss this early in the season. For the Bills sake hope that exactly that happens and begins to eliminate possible playoff teams from the AFC.

Optimal Outcome: 49ers victory

Buccaneers (5-2) @ Saints (1-6) - Sun 4:05PM 👏

The Buccaneers and Saints are two teams that were on the Buffalo Bills regular season schedule entering 2025. Buffalo already took care of business against the Saints while a date with the Bucs is set for November 16^th. This is an important distinction as Buffalo’s win over the Saints means a win by the Saints this week will boost Buffalo’s SOV, even if temporarily. Right now, though, that’s optimal.

Optimal Outcome: Saints victory

Cowboys (3-3-1) @ Broncos (5-2) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏

If, and this is a big if, Dak Prescott can will the Dallas Cowboys to the NFC East title the MVP will be his to lose. Prescott has been phenomenal this season after returning from an injury that ended his 2024 campaign. His next opponent is the 5-2 Broncos who just completed one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history by scoring 33 of their 33 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Giants who scored 32 points. That’s annoying from a rooting interest’s perspective but what wouldn’t be annoying is if Prescott and Co can find a way to knock the Broncos down a peg this week.

Optimal Outcome: Cowboys victory

Titans (1-6) @ Colts (6-1) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏

The hierarchy of game importance this week goes; 1 – Bill @ Panthers, 2 – Browns @ Patriots, and 3 – Titans @ Colts. Indianapolis is the league’s only team with a winning percentage north of .750 with the only elite team remaining on their schedule being the Kansas City Chiefs. If the Bills have any hope of getting that elusive #1 seed, they are going to need the Colts to get stunned in a game they should easily win at some point this season. Know what would be stunning? The Titans beating the Colts this week.

Optimal Outcome: Titans victory

Packers (4-1-1) @ Steelers (4-2) - Sun 8:20PM 👏👏👏

Both the Packers and the Steelers have had weird seasons to say the least. The Packers sit atop the NFC North but seem like a flawed team that has all the talent necessary to compete for a Super Bowl. The Steelers sit atop the AFC North but are a flawed team that lacks the juice necessary to make a deep playoff run. A loss by the latter this week sets up some seeding paths in the AFC for the Buffalo Bills while starting to build a back door into the playoffs if one of the Bengals, Browns, or Ravens can find a way to go on a run the remainder of the season.

Optimal Outcome: Packers victory

Commanders (3-4) @ Chiefs (4-3) - Mon 8:15PM 👏👏👏

Cris Collinsworth likely penned a strongly written letter to NFL headquarters due to this game being played outside of his performance window. A sneaky benefit to the Buffalo Bills is to be had here, however. With Buffalo set to host the Chiefs next Sunday they will be doing so with one more day rest than Kansas City. The game could have massive implications but what would diminish it slightly and give the Bills some wiggle room is if the renamed Commanders can go to Kansas City and upset the apparently aptly named Chiefs in primetime.

Optimal Outcome: Commanders victory

Bye Week

Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Colts (6-2)**

2. Bills (5-2)**

3. Broncos (5-3)**

4. Steelers (4-3)**

5. Patriots (5-3)*

6. Jaguars (4-3)*

7. Chargers (4-4, H2H Win over KC)*

8. Chiefs (4-4, H2H Loss to LAC)

9. Bengals (3-5, H2H Win over CLE)

10. Browns (3-5, H2H Loss to CIN)

11. Texans (2-5, 2-1 WLC)

12. Raiders (2-5, 2-3 WLC)

13. Titans (2-6)

14. Ravens (1-6)

15. Dolphins (1-7, H2H win over NYJ)

16. Jets (1-7, H2H loss to MIA)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #6 Review

The Buffalo Bills have a ton of soul searching to do after a second consecutive loss in which both the offense and defense struggled. Luckily for Buffalo they head into their bye week in Week #7 with plans to get healthier, less suspended, and regroup. Unluckily for Buffalo teams like the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Broncos, and Chiefs all won this weekend. With that, Buffalo currently sits as the #5 seed in the AFC, making rooting interests more important now than they have been at any point this season.

Rooting Interests Record: 39-25 (LW 7-5)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: +28 (LW -1 👏)

Steelers (4-1) @ Bengals (2-4) - Thu 8:15PM 👏👏👏

Joe Burrow was projected to come back in the final weeks of the season IF the Bengals could find a way to survive until that point. Survival is beginning to wane in Cincinnati after dropping four consecutive games by double digits. This week they take on the “class” of the AFC North when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers who look poised to compete for high seeding in the AFC. For now, seeding remains a priority for the Buffalo Bills, especially with the Bengals demise being imminent regardless of the outcome of this game.

Optimal Outcome: Bengals victory

Rams (4-2) @ Jaguars (4-2) - Sun 9:30AM 👏👏👏

The AFC South may be the most fun division in the AFC this season with the Colts and Jaguars squarely in the playoff picture while the Texans are lurking. This is bad news for the rest of the AFC as it’s likely one, if not two, wildcard teams will come from the AFC South. For the sake of the Bills let’s hope that number is closer to one (or zero) in case Buffalo needs a backdoor into the playoffs late in the season.

Optimal Outcome: Rams victory

Saints (1-5) @ Bears (3-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

Heading into week seven, among the fourteen teams currently in the playoffs, the Buffalo Bills have the lowest SOV at .125. While it’s rare that SOV is used as a tiebreaker it is not out of the question. With that in mind in games featuring two NFC teams, SOV, and SOS for that matter, are worth considering. The Bills have beaten the Saints; an SOV boost is to be had here.

Optimal Outcome: Saints victory

Dolphins (1-5) @ Browns (1-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

A game featuring two 1-5 teams is generally not a game worth paying attention to. When that game features an AFC East team the importance ramps up a bit. From the Bills perspective, if they fall behind the Dolphins in the standings, regardless of circumstance, things have gotten really really bad. Let’s avoid that at all costs by rooting for their season to officially end with three or four more losses.

Optimal Outcome: Browns victory

Patriots (4-2) @ Titans (1-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏

From here forward Patriots games will be considered uber important until they are no longer important. As of writing this, the Patriots technically sit first in the AFC East with what appears to be one of the easiest schedules in recent memories. While Buffalo still controls their own destiny as far as their sixth consecutive division title goes, a surprise loss by the Patriots would go a long way in boosting confidence that that may happen. This one would be a MASSIVE surprise but hey, crazier things have happened.

Optimal Outcome: Titans victory

Raiders (2-4) @ Chiefs (3-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

The Chiefs appear all the way back after a dominating victory over the Detroit Lions. Add the return of Rashee Rice this week and the Chiefs should be considered one of the NFL’s top contenders. This week they take on a Raiders team which has been spicy against Kansas City in the past despite a massive talent gap across the board. It would be a shocker if Las Vegas pulls this off but keeping the Chiefs at or under .500 is paramount at this point.

Optimal Outcome: Raiders victory

Eagles (4-2) @ Vikings (3-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

Eagles @ Vikings does not provide much by way of rooting interests but it does provide for a solid comp for the current state of affairs in Buffalo. Much like the Bills the Eagles have dropped their last two and a ton of questions are surrounding what appeared to be one of the league’s best teams. Keep an eye on this one to see how Philly adjusts and look for them to pick up a victory to bump the Bills SOS.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

Panthers (3-3) @ Jets (0-6) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

Some will look at this game and think rooting for the Jets is the way to go. At this point the only winless team in the NFL is right on the verge of playoff elimination so assuring they don’t get the #1 overall pick is beginning to be the priority. But beginning doesn’t equate to right now being the time, instead two more losses will likely result in the pivot. Until then we can root against New Jersey and in this case hope Bills South takes this game.

Optimal Outcome: Panthers victory

Giants (2-4) @ Broncos (4-2) – Sun 4:05PM 👏👏👏

The Denver Broncos seem like a team who will hang around the wildcard picture all season long. Not very good, not bad, but problematic for other AFC playoff hopefuls. This week they will take on the New York Giants who just produced one of the bigger shocks of the season by downing the defending Super Bowl champions. Let’s hope Jaxon Dart and Cam Skattebo can reproduce that magic this week and put yet another AFC team in the 3+ loss grouping.

Optimal Outcome: Giants victory

Colts (5-1) @ Chargers (4-2) - Sun 4:05PM 👏👏👏

There are only two 5-1 teams in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Indianapolis Colts. This week the latter of those two takes on another division leader in the Los Angeles Chargers in a contest that will have massive seeing implications. Some may argue that the Bills should root for the Colts to down the Chargers to assure Buffalo an easier path to the playoffs. Others may argue that the Bills should root for the Chargers to down the Colts to provide Buffalo with a better path to the #1 seed in the AFC. Optimal is defined as “best or most favorable” and the #1 seed is the best and most favorable seed in the AFC.

Optimal Outcome: Chargers victory

Commanders (3-3) @ Cowboys (2-3-1) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

In NFC games featuring teams that the Buffalo Bills do not play in the 2025 regular season the SOV of AFC contenders come into focus. That means we look for games which each of the teams has lost to non-Bills AFC teams. In the case of Commanders @ Cowboys that makes for an interesting conversation since the Commanders are 2-0 versus the AFC while the Cowboys are 1-0. Of those games the most important, by far, is Washington’s victory over the Los Angeles Chargers which gives a Commanders victory this week the moniker of optimal.

Optimal Outcome: Commanders victory

Packers (3-1-1) @ Cardinals (2-4) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

The same strategy employed in Commanders @ Cowboys is used in Packers @ Cardinals. In games against the AFC this season the Packers are 1-1 while the Cardinals are 0-2. The most important loss amongst the three combined losses to the AFC by the Packers and Cardinals is the Cardinals loss to the Colts. That sets up our optimal outcome as we root for the Colts SOV to drop via a Cardinals loss.

Optimal Outcome: Packers victory

Falcons (3-2) @ 49ers (4-2) - Sun 8:20PM 👏

The Falcons beat the Bills in one of the uglier games we have seen from a Buffalo team in quite some time. That means that Buffalo has a lot to clean up but does not mean that the Falcons are a team the Bills should necessarily root against moving forward. In fact, in games like this one that feature the Falcons and an NFC opponent Buffalo will not face in the regular season, rooting for Atlanta to win is rooting for a bump in SOS for the Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Falcons victory

Buccaneers (5-1) @ Lions (4-2) - Mon 7:00PM 👏

ESPN insisting on making the Monday night double header a thing is one of the most obnoxious broadcast decisions in recent memory. Luckily this game features two very good NFC teams and should be a fun one to watch starting at 7:00PM for those of you on the east coast. If you do decide to watch this game and are looking for what to root for, this one is all about SOS/SOV. The Bills play the Buccaneers on November 16, and not the Lions during the regular season, meaning a win by Baker’s Bucs bumps Buffalo’s SOV and potentially boosts their SOS.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers victory

Texans (2-3) @ Seahawks (4-2) - Mon 10:00PM 👏👏

After beginning the season 0-3 the Houston Texans have beaten their last two opponents by a combined score of 70-10. Of course, those victories came against teams quarterbacked by Cam Ward and Cooper Rush but as a loss is a loss so too a win is a win. This week they head to the west coast to take on a Seahawks team who remains in striking distance of the AFC West division lead. This should be a good one, and one Buffalo’s playoff odds could benefit heavily one if the game goes the optimal direction.

Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory

Bye Week

Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Chargers (5-2, H2H win over IND)**

2. Colts (5-2, H2H Loss to LAC)**

3. Steelers (4-2, .333 SOV)**

4. Bills (4-2, .148 SOV)**

5. Jaguars (4-3, 2-1 WLC)*

6. Broncos (4-3, 3-2 WLC)*

7. Patriots (4-3, 2-3 WLC)*

8. Bengals (3-4, 3-1 WLC)

9. Raiders (3-4, H2H win over KC, 3-2 WLC)

10. Chiefs (3-4, H2H loss to LVR)

11. Texans (2-4)

12. Browns (2-5, 1-3 WLC)

13. Titans (2-5, 1-4 WLC)

14. Ravens (1-5)

15. Dolphins (1-6)

16. Jets (0-7)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head

2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference

3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)

4. SOV: Strength of Victory

5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #5 Review

The Bills loss to the Patriots was their first real hiccup of the 2025 season. New England has now closed the gap with the Bills sitting just 0.5 games behind them for the lead in the AFC East. That makes winning moving forward paramount and simultaneously gives our exterior rooting interests more power. In week five Buffalo did get some help in that regard with losses by the Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, and Chargers but saw the Colts, Jaguars, and Broncos get wins at the same time. Now in week six the Bills must win heading into their bye and hope that some of these other teams start to slip up.

Rooting Interests Record: 32-20 (LW 7-5)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: +29 (LW +3👏)

Eagles (4-1) @ Giants (1-4) - Thu 8:15PM 👏

Much like the Bills, the Eagles dropped a game in week five that they should have won. They have a chance to right the wrongs of that loss this week in a game against a feisty division rival in the Giants. In all honesty this game doesn’t hold much value with two NFC teams represented but there is an opportunity for a bit of a SOS bump if this game goes the way Bills fans should want it to.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory

Broncos (3-2) @ Jets (0-5) - Sun 9:30AM 👏👏

Four of the Broncos five contests this season have been one score games. In those they sit at 2-2. On the other side the Jets are the NFL’s only winless team. This is a weird game because we know the Jets are bad but we don’t know how good the Broncos are. Despite that, until the Bills find a way to lock down the AFC East the priority must be to eliminate the three other teams from contention.

Optimal Outcome: Broncos victory

Cardinals (2-3) @ Colts (4-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

The Indianapolis Colts, led by Indiana Jones, continue to find a way to win football games as their Cinderella season continues. They have thus become an extremely important opponent for the Bills to keep an eye on as the season progresses. This week they are taking on the funky (In a not so good way) Arizona Cardinals in a contest that could be closer than a lot thing. Know what would be nice here? An NFC win.

Optimal Outcome: Cardinals victory

Chargers (3-2) @ Dolphins (1-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

The Chargers may sit atop the NFC West but with all the injuries they have experienced on the offensive line, their offense has completely stalled out. In back-to-back losses LA has scored a total of 28 points which is simply not good enough for a team with their talent. This week they take on a Miami Dolphins team that is quickly becoming the laughing stock of the NFL with their latest banger of a joke being their loss to the Panthers. All that said, much like Broncos @ Jets the priority here is an AFC East loss, so root for Justin Herbert and the offense to figure it out.

Optimal Outcome: Chargers victory

Patriots (3-2) @ Saints (1-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏

The New England Patriots are officially a problem. There victory over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night gave them the H2H tiebreaker over Buffalo and puts them just 0.5 games behind the Bills in the standings. It gets worse. The Patriots have what many are describing as the easiest schedule in NFL history and included in that schedule is a home game against the Bills later in the season directly following a bye week. That’s bad, but wouldn’t be bad is if the Saints can shock the Patriots in New Orleans on Sunday.

Optimal Outcome: Saints victory

Browns (1-4) @ Steelers (3-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

The Browns may be 1-4 but their defense is spicy and their offense has some juice with rookies Dillon Gabriel and Quinshon Judkins running point. The Steelers may be 3-1 but their defense is mediocre and there offense is among the most boring in the NFL with a senior citizen at quarterback. It shouldn’t shock anyone if the Browns find a way to pull this one off, and doing so would be a boon for the Buffalo Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Browns victory

Cowboys (2-2-1) @ Panthers (2-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏

The Panthers are the apple of the Bills eye right now following an embarrassingly humorous win over the Miami Dolphins. This week they will try to embarrass the Dallas Cowboys, who deal with many embarrassing moments with Jerry Jones meandering around. Root for this game to produce another one in an effort to bump up the Bills SOS.

Optimal Outcome: Panthers victory

Seahawks (3-2) @ Jaguars (4-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏

The Jaguars had a shocking win over the Kansas City Chiefs to round out week five and now are tied with the Buffalo Bills (and Indianapolis Colts) for the best record in the AFC. This week they clash with the 3-2 Seahawks in game that could have major impacts for two teams in the thick of a divisional race. From the Bills perspective the Seahawks closing in on their division title while the Jaguars fall out of their race is one of the more obvious optimal outcomes of the week.

Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory

Rams (3-2) @ Ravens (1-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏

The Ravens are in complete free fall and are heading into a near must win game following a 44-10 thumping by the Houston Texans. It’s not going to get any easier this week with the LA Rams coming to town so the forecast doesn’t look great for Baltimore. Fall to 1-5 and chalk this season up as a loss, unless Lamar can find some magic and lead his team to a 9-2 record following the bye. But let’s worry about that possibility when we have to and right now root for Baltimore to continue falling down the AFC standings.

Optimal Outcome: Rams victory

Titans (1-4) @ Raiders (1-4) - Sun 4:05PM 👏

The Tennessee Titans felt like a team that had a legitimate chance to go 0-17 but last week snuck one out against the Arizona Cardinals. Now they head to Las Vegas to take on a Raiders teams that they very well may be better than. Geno Smith has been a major factor in the Raiders struggled with his league worst 9 interceptions being a great indicator of his struggles. So with all of this, who do we want to win this game? Honestly, it doesn’t much matter at this point so root for whomever you’d like in a game you should not watch.

Optimal Outcome: N/A

Bengals (2-3) @ Packers (2-1-1) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏

The Bengals think they have an answer at quarterback, that answer…Joe Flacco. Yes, that Joe Flacco who the Bengals traded for on Tuesday afternoon. It remains to be seen if or when he will take the reigns from Jake Browning but it’s clear Cincinnati is trying to save their season. Regardless, they will have a test this week in Green Bay against a talented Packers team. The goal though is to sustain until Burrow can return, so the quicker Burrow’s return is meaningless the better things will be for the Buffalo Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Packers victory

49ers (4-1) @ Buccaneers (4-1) - Sun 4:25PM 👏

The 49ers take on a Buccaneers in a game that appears to be a fun one in the 4PM slate. It appears that McCorkle Jones will get another go providing him another opportunity to ramp up the QB controversy in San Francisco. From a Bills perspective, that is a no-no, with a win by the Buccaneers providing Buffalo with a small SOS boost.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers victory

Lions (4-1) @ Chiefs (2-3) - Sun 8:20PM 👏👏👏

The Kansas City Chiefs loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars as the NFL’s latest dynasty sits at 2-3 and is clearly struggling this season. It doesn’t get much easier as their season rolls on either, and this week exemplifies this. With 2-4 looming the Chiefs are going to need to find a way to down a Detroit Lions team who has an argument as best team in the NFL. You know that isn’t optimal though, so root for the right outcome here.

Optimal Outcome: Lions victory

Bills (4-1) @ Falcons (2-2) - Mon 7:15PM 👏👏👏👏👏

Buffalo’s loss to the Patriots was rough, but it isn’t the end of the world. Find a way to take care of business in Atlanta on Monday and improve to 5-1 heading into the bye with reinforcements on the way.

Optimal Outcome: Bills victory

Bears (2-2) @ Commanders (3-2) - Mon 8:15PM

The NFL’s obsession with playing simultaneous games on Monday night is a weird and lame approach to football fandom. One hour after the Bills kickoff the Bears and Commanders will. It’s a game that could have serious implications on the NFC wildcard race but also little implications on the Bills. With Buffalo not set to see either of these teams in 2025 choosing a rooting interest here is just something that isn’t worth doing at this point in time.

Optimal Outcome: N/A

Bye Week

Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings

Optimal Standings

If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.

1. Bills (5-1)**

2. Colts (4-2, 4-0 WLC, .429 SOS)**

3. Chargers (4-2, 4-0 WLC, .343 SOS)**

4. Steelers (3-2)**

5. Jaguars (4-2, 2-1 WLC)*

6. Broncos (4-2, 3-2 WLC)*

7. Patriots (3-3)*

8. Texans (2-3)

9. Bengals (2-4, H2H win over CLE, 2-1 WLC)

10. Browns (2-4, H2H loss to CIN, 1-2 WLC, .650 SOV)

11. Chiefs (2-4, 1-2 WLC, .182 SOV)

12. Titans (2-4, 1-3 WLC)

13. Raiders (1-4)

14. Ravens (1-5, .333 SOV)

15. Dolphins (1-5, .000 SOV)

16. Jets (0-6)

** Division Leader * Wildcard