ISM SERVICES PMI - 10:00AM EST

Yesterday’s lower pivot held the low of the day after being tested several times in the first hour of trading. From there we rallied up to the previous day’s value area high where we stalled out at our middle pivot for the rest of the session. Not much has changed since yesterday’s plan as we now open up with an inside day. Just as written yesterday, if you’re bullish here you wan to see buyers bid above 29369, and if you’re bearish you want to see sellers keep us below that. With the added context of the inside day, and ES barely hanging onto the daily balance here I could see this going either way this morning, but as long as ES is keeping it together I think NQ will have trouble liquidating. Monitor yesterday RTH highs and lows when we get there and keep a side eye on if ES is also breaking out or breaking down as the confluence between the two will add some confidence on playing a directional move, or whether we see a look below/above and fail. Overnight inventory is mostly balanced.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 29115

Here are my critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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ISM SERVICES PMI - 10:00AM EST

Yesterday’s plan was to look for early resistance at 7658-60 and if we got above to go with it higher. Shortly after the plan was posted we popped up to 58-60 and saw a quick 20 pt drop, however buyers stepped in giving us a higher low into the open. After the open we got some A-period chop which eventually pushed through the pivot and ran. There was hardly a retest and the initiative buyers pushed straight through the weekly zone and above Tuesday’s RTH high which filled the gap. From there we found support at the top of the weekly zone for the rest of the session and closed with a P-shaped profile. ES recaptured the daily balance and left us with a line of single prints in the weekly zone. We just saw another nice retest a the top of the weekly zone here in the premarket and the bid is stepping in again. The way I see it is buyers must step in and find continuation. Any strong break back below the weekly zone would be seen as bearish imo. Over on NQ we have an inside day which never got anywhere near the previous session highs. We want to see them breaking the downtrend together to have confidence in holding positions, and today is no different. ES bulls need to find continuation above the overnight high and attack the gap above, NQ needs to take out the inside day high and hold it. It’s a fairly straightforward setup and our pivots have been guiding along the way, value moved higher yesterday and we want to see that continue. Thus far ES has held the monthly breakout by the skin of its teeth. If we take out the last swing low we could see selling intensify and I suspect volatility picks up a lot.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 7673:

My critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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FACTORY ORDERS - 10:00AM EST

Yesterday’s plan was to look for shorts at 29312. High of the day was 29317. We held some nice rotations off of our deep pivots but sellers successfully defended the RTH gap. The current overnight low is also the 100 day SMA, NQ tends to react well to the 100 day so keep an eye on the overnight low area if we trade there. The most important spot today if buyers do show up is 29369. Breaking back above that level buyers can regain some control, but for now they are struggling. Overnight inventory is mostly balanced.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 29080

Here are my critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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FACTORY ORDERS - 10:00AM EST

Yesterday’s plan was to wait for acceptance back above 7672.50 to attempt longs, this turned out to be the high of the day as buyers were unwilling to press much. After partially filling the unfilled gap from the breakout of the monthly balance it was looking like buyers might have joined the party. But, after failing to recapture the weekly zone we traded right back down, ultimately filling the gap and taking out the morning low. Overnight we have seen another lower low but it was short-lived and we are currently holding onto yesterday’s range. We’ve had two RTH gaps down in a row and there’s a real threat of acceleration to the downside bulls throw in the towel. Below the current prices we have some areas of importance within the monthly balance. Major POC at 7591, the 50% retrace from the July low at 7581.25, and the small unfilled weekly gap at 7541. The current overnight low is at the single prints from the last trend day before the breakout. Having now filled the breakout gap and found acceptance below the balance, we will monitor for short entries while also monitor for the look below and fail. For now, sellers maintain control on the daily and weekly.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 7651:

My critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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JOLTS - 10:00AM EST

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING - 10:00AM EST

Yesterday’s plan was to look for support at our 29358-29369** pivot. It held multiple retests and held the low of the session. Only problem was our Middle pivot held the high of the session also and we failed from there in the overnight. We now find ourselves looking at a gap down open, but all is not lost. Today make sure you’re keeping a side eye on ES as it is at a far more critical high timeframe area. If it recovers I could see this marking the end of this weekly pullback. If it fails we likely see continuation to the downside, possibly a bit stronger. On a recapture of yesterday’s low in NQ it means ES likely survived. There is a large move brewing here so whichever way it goes don’t fight it, go with it.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 29218

Here are my critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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JOLTS - 10:00AM EST

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING - 10:00AM EST

Yesterday’s plan was to hold off on longs and consider shorts if we popped up to the Middle Pivot and failed. I was hoping for a move a little above the middle pivot first but it marked the high of the day and we chopped around in a tight range for most of the session. After attempting to move higher overnight some headlines out of Iran sent us lower, and we are now looking at a gap down open. Now, before we get all bear’d up here. Let’s zoom out. We are still holding the monthly breakout. We are gapping down towards the bottom of the recent daily balance. And we are still holding the RTH gap that led to the breakout. While we are still holding them as of this writing, those elements are also in danger. If they hold and we can catch a bid, this is an optimal area to recover from, if it fails lower we could see higher timeframe sellers step in and drive us much lower from here. This is the first trading day in September so I would patiently wait to see where we find acceptance and which areas we are rejecting before hopping in. See the monthly chart below. I think today could set the tone for the next few weeks. Buyers must defend this area, sellers must drive us back into the monthly balance below which would trap all august longs above.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 7655:

My critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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Friday’s plan played out nicely, we caught the early long off of 29540 and rode it up towards the gap and then logged off for the session. After NQ failed to find continuation above we saw a nasty liquidation right back down but we did hold the prior day’s low. NQ now has an unfilled gap below and a large unfilled gap above. I’m going to keep the plan short and sweet here.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 29418

Here are my critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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Friday’s plan played out nicely as ES gave some nice ranges to the upside and then all the way back down. Our final target to the upside on Friday was 7783-7785 which was two ticks from the high of day, however after stalling out there at the old double distribution singles ES liquidated all the way back. We took out the open, and morning low but then balanced above Thursday’s low and held the top of the previous balance (red box). Overnight we dropped back into the balance, tapped the balance mid and as I type this we are trying to recapture the top of the previous balance and Friday’s low. All of these comments are focused on the daily timeframe, but when we zoom out a little we are still hold the monthly breakout, and thus far sellers have been unable to come anywhere near failing that breakout. As ES is sitting right now, we are at the weekly LVN and the top of the smaller balance. It’s a perfect pivot here and I’ll either lean long above or sit on hands below. Our pivots this morning are set a bit wide as the break back into balance could carry us to the bottom of the red box and a recapture could find continuation to the upside. I don’t have a strong opinion this morning, it’s the last day of the month, for the last several weeks neither side has looked all that interested in pressing the issue and we continue to find acceptance above the monthly balance. In this price action it pays to wait for clean setups and trim profits and trail stops along the way and quit while ahead. Overnight inventory is short

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 7702:

My critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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PRELIMINARY BENCHMARK PAYROLLS REVISION - 10:00AM EST

CONSUMER SENTIMENT AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS - 10:00AM EST

Yesterday’s upper pivot marked the high of the session for most of the day until the spike above at the close. I sat on hands most of the session until the pullback long to the middle pivot at little before lunch. A one and done day. That pivot was tested again later in the session and held again before ripping higher into the close. NQ held the gap out of the inside day unfilled as it slowly works its way to the massive unfilled gap above. Yesterday’s plan was, as long as ES holds the break from balance, longs only in NQ as long as we are above 29533-540, worked pretty well. Some life is coming back to NQ here as it tries to play catchup with ES. I would expect a little violence today at 10am EST. And given the recent breaks higher I would expect continuation to the upside, or a very large failure. I’m not really looking for small range chop today so we’ll see. Overnight inventory is mostly balance.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 29633

Here are my critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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PRELIMINARY BENCHMARK PAYROLLS REVISION - 10:00AM EST

CONSUMER SENTIMENT AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS - 10:00AM EST

Yesterday gave us the break from balance we were looking for. We poked below the pullback long zone as expected, once back above, it was a straight shot higher to the upper pivot 35+ pts away. A-period was pretty choppy, they never make it easy but when you zoom out it was a pretty straightforward break. The full extension from the lower balance is at 7772, which is also the major point of control from the upper distribution. Go back and read yesterday’s plan and review the day, it was a picture perfect balance break even with the slow grind at times. All of that brings us to today. ES broke from balance, it closed above balance and filled the first little untilled gap above. We have an LVN on yesterday’s profile that is exactly our upper pivot from yesterday, it also happens to be the 50% retrace from recent lows to the all time high. We have another tiny unfilled gap above and a spike down right at the major POC up at 7772. The question now is what does Warsh have in store for us at 10AM? Can we get some upside follow through. Or, does the breakout fail? We have VERY clean market generated information this morning so use that to manage risk and go with the flow. Overnight inventory is slightly long.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 7742:

My critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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JACKSON HOLE STUFF

Yesterday’s lower pivot marked the low of day, and the middle pivot marked the high of the day. It was a choppy initial balance that bounced between the previous day’s excess high’s and low’s, we were left with an inside day. After the close we got NVDA earnings which launched NQ to the upside but we have mostly balanced overnight. NQ still has a very large unfilled gap above. In addition we have ES breaking from a much cleaner balance. I think they breakout or fail together and I’ll watch ES to monitor for continuation to consider NQ to the long side. I also makes sense to keep an eye on NVDA because if that sells off all day this time around it’s going to kill the breakouts. The current overnight high is also the 50% retrace to the last swing high which will always keep me cautious of this being just a retrace before the next leg down. So we have filled the gap below, we still have a large gap above, and we are currently trading on a large gap breakout of an inside day, I’m thinking I want to be a little cautious here chasing. We are currently trading at the high timeframe point of control at 29597. Under normal circumstances I would say we get a trend day up or down, but with the low volume and lack of follow through in August, I will want to see some stronger price action first to get excited.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 29530

Here are my critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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JACKSON HOLE STUFF

Yesterday gave us another tight range balance day inside the 5 day balance. Our pullback long zone was 7670-7672.50*** which marked the low of the day, and the middle pivot capped the high of the day until after the close when NVDA sent the market higher. This morning we are breaking out of balance. As always we will monitor for continuation or failure. We are currently trading on a 20 pt gap above the RTH high from yesterday which has us gapping above the previous gap down which remained unfilled. When you zoom out this was just a large pullback retest of the monthly breakout. The main question this morning is do we get some follow through to the upside? Or does the breakout fail. NVDA tends to pop on earnings and then sell off so we will see. Half of twitter was calling for NVDA to sell off after earnings all week so we may actually have a shot at holding the breakout. Regardless of sentiment, options positioning and speculation, we have about the most straightforward setup we’ve had in weeks, now the question is follow through or slow motion chop. I’m guessing for a little range expansion today no matter which way it goes. Jackson Hole headlines will be around today but tomorrow is the much bigger JH day with Warsh speaking. Overnight inventory is long

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 7719:

My critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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GDP - 8:30AM EST

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS - 8:30AM EST

NVDA EARNINGS AFTER THE CLOSE

Yesterday saw a gap up open that pushed a little higher but failed to take out the overnight high. After that the gap filled and we traded into the previous day’s value but sellers found now interest there. Value moved higher, but sellers defended the morning excess high and we balance for the rest of the session just above the swing lows of 8/4 and 8/6. Overnight we have continued to balance and find acceptance above Monday’s value, but no real interest from buyers yet to step in and find continuation to the upside. I would keep a side eye on the ES balance from that plan as it is much cleaner and likely guides the next move in NQ depending on which way it breaks. We have a lot of data this morning and NVDA earnings after the bell today. Thus far NQ looks like it may have put in a lower low on Monday and a lower high yesterday in the premarket. It will be up to the bulls to buck that trend and break this above the 29500 area. I have left the previous overlapping gap on the chart as that is still a pretty important area, the gap is now filled, but failure below leaves quite a bit of inventory trapped above.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 29200

Here are my critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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GDP - 8:30AM EST

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS - 8:30AM EST

NVDA EARNINGS AFTER THE CLOSE

Yesterday gave us a tight range balance day. After gapping up ES slowly sold off until giving a nice excess low that tested Monday’s value area low. Overall we are in a tight 4 day balance sandwiched between the gap out of balance, and the 50% extension from that balance. See Simple Daily Profile Chart below and look at the red box. As we have planned for the last several sessions, I don’t trust either side to trend it until break firmly above 7724 or below 7630s and we have found ourselves chopping around in there. We have some important data this morning with PCE and GDP so perhaps today is the day, we also have NVDA earnings after the bell today. Will today be the day for the breakout/breakdown? Who knows, just monitor the guardrails and fade the edges until we break away from this area, then go with the break. Overnight inventory is balanced.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 7691:

My critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - 10:00AM EST

NEW HOME SALES - 10:00AM EST

RICHMOND MANUFACTURING INDEX - 10:00AM EST

Interesting session yesterday. While we technically started weekly one time framing to the downside I can’t get bearish until sellers manage to fail the monthly breakout in ES and NQ can break below yesterday’s low. NQ managed to come all the way down and perfectly fill the overlapping gap below and has also recovered quite a bit and looking at a gap up. If buyers can step in and recapture the upper pivot today I could see a decent rotation higher coming. Overnight inventory is long and we’ve come a long way off yesterday’s low in the overnight session. It’s looking a little exhausted currently so some early chop/pullback is possible before the market makes a move.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 29391

Here are my critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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ADP EMPLOYMENT - 8:15AM EST

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - 10:00AM EST

NEW HOME SALES - 10:00AM EST

RICHMOND MANUFACTURING INDEX - 10:00AM EST

Interesting session yesterday, as stated in the weekly outlook, if we got anywhere near last weeks low it was very likely to get taken out as the low was not great. We did manage to take it out, however buyers stepped in at the top of the gap that started the monthly breakout. We balanced for the rest of the session giving several opportunities from yesterday’s lower pivot. Overnight we have seen buyers step in again and we are currently looking at a decent sized gap up. The current overnight high, is the value area low of the major distribution we are in, see Simple Profile Chart below. While we technically started weekly one time framing to the downside I can’t get bearish until sellers manage to fail the monthly breakout. NQ managed to come all the way down and perfectly fill the overlapping gap below and has also recovered quite a bit and looking at a gap up. The weekly zone held like a champ, but you don’t want to see us breaking cleanly below that area again. If buyers can step in and recapture the upper pivot today I could see a decent rotation higher coming but we are currently sitting in a 50ish point chop zone waiting for the next directional move. Overnight inventory is long.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 7701:

My critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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Friday mostly chopped around in Thursday’s range trying to hold the swing 8/4 low and the 8/6 lows. I will be keeping a close eye on the ES inside day and the overlapping gap below in NQ today. Any failure to move to the upside today could be met with stronger selling but let’s wait until one side or another asserts themselves. IF this area breaks down we could find some support in the overlapping gap below, but it’s not a spot I would be looking for longs until I see us recover. Down at the 50% retrace from the major swing low we also have the 100 day SMA which is an intersting area, but it’s down at 29772. If this area holds we may be looking at a massive upper balance that could rotate back up to the current swing highs up at 30000-30350 but it’s way too early to say that until we recapture a few key resistance zones above, today’s upper pivot being the most critical imo.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 29200

Here are my critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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Friday gave us an inside day that spent most of the day filling in volume within the liquidation candles in Thursday’s profile. ES managed to hold the weekly zone last week but as stated in the weekly outlook the low of the week wasn’t great and any retest was likely to make a new weekly low. As we sit here in the premarket we are testing that thesis and currently trading below the inside day low. While ES is still maintaining the gap out of balance. The bulls have work to do if they hope to take this higher. Most notably they would need to reject this gap down and break us back above Thursday/friday’s highs. The longer we sit down here the more likely it is we dig into that unfilled gap below. I will (again) be a bit defensive and lean on patience and sit on hands for at least the first hour. Sellers are currently a bit exhausted to the downside, and the bounces have been weak. On the summary profile there is a nice little LVN at 7678, right at friday’s RTH low. It will be an important reference here and the premarket and after the open. We have the normal attempt to pump the market here as I type this but we will need to monitor whether the early pump sticks or if it gets rejected. I will focus on the inside day and let that inform my decisions. Overnight inventory is still slightly short but testing Friday’s lows here early.

So, here’s how I will play it, as this is written we are currently trading at 7681:

My critical zones and how I plan to use them:

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You’ll get full access to:

• Unbound Trading Indicators for Motivew…

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