STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Oklahoma Runoff Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve only got a few states left with primaries (all on the east coast), but we’re going to be taking a slight detour tonight. That’s because Oklahoma is holding their runoffs! While a lot of the focus has been on the high-profile Republican runoff for Governor, several primaries with major state legislative implications are also going down tonight. So, without further ado, let’s get to it!

SD-17 (Pottawatomie/eastern Oklahoma Counties, Trump+48.5) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

Two Republicans advanced to the runoff to succeed term-limited Republican incumbent Shane Jett in this deeply Republican district: former Sac & Fox Nation Principal Chief Justin Wood and Pottawatomie County Commissioner Abby Thompson.

Wood is a conservative, promising to defend constitutional freedoms, support law enforcement, and defend “religious freedom.” He’s backed by the Oklahoma Farm Bureau and the Fraternal Order of Police. He received 45.3% of the vote in the primary. Thompson is also a conservative (with a bit of a twist). She opposes abortion, supports the 2nd Amendment, and wants to expand funding for public education. She’s backed by the Chamber of Commerce. She barely made the runoff, getting 18.9% of the vote in the primary and outpacing the third place finisher by just 10 votes! Wood has a solid financial advantage over Thompson. With how close he got to 50% in the primary, I think Wood wins this one.

SD-18 (Yukon/western Oklahoma City, Trump+30) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

Republican incumbent Jack Stewart is in the runoff for this deeply Republican district alongside project manager Tyler Herring.

Stewart is running on his conservative voting record, touting his votes to cut income taxes, end “DEI” in higher education, and ban drag shows for minors. He’s backed by several local elected officials, the NRA, and several conservative grassroots groups. He received 45.7% of the vote in the primary. Herring is also a conservative, promising to cut taxes, crack down on illegal immigration, and defend “election integrity.” He’s backed by the Oklahoma Chamber of Commerce. He received 35.2% of the vote in the primary. Herring has a wide financial advantage over Stewart. With Herring’s financial advantage and Stewart underperforming in the primary, I honestly think Herring wins tonight.

SD-24 (Moore area, Trump+26) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

With Republican incumbent Darrell Weaver running for Lieutenant Governor (and losing in the primary), two Republicans advanced to the runoff to succeed him in this deeply Republican district: doctor Jon Painter and businessman Robert Keyes.

Painter is a conservative, wanting to cut “government waste,” crack down on illegal immigration, and oppose abortion. He got 34.5% of the vote in the primary. Keyes calls himself a “Christian Conservative” who will cut taxes, expand economic development, and protect “Oklahoma Values.” He also says he’s a part of the “Tough as a $2 Steak Club,” which may or may not actually exist. He’s backed by fourth-place primary finisher Heather Boss (who got 14.1% of the vote in the primary). He received 23.2% of the vote in the primary. Painter has outpaced Keyes in fundraising, but Keyes has whooped him in spending thanks to spending almost half of a million dollars of his own money. That self-funding (and accusations of carpetbagging towards Keyes for running in a neighboring district in 2024) has kind of dogged Keyes during the runoff. As such, I think Painter wins here. I could definitely be wrong though, because spending $500k of your own money to win a State Senate seat is insane behavior that could pay off and give Keyes the win.

SD-26 (Custer/Caddo/Kingfisher/Blaine/northern Canadian Counties, Trump+57) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

With Republican incumbent Darcy Jech term-limited, two Republicans are in the runoff to succeed him in this deeply Republican district: businessman Rick Koch and businesswoman Jessica Winegeart.

Koch calls himself a “conservative fighter” who will “never cave to the left,” promising to cut taxes, crack down on illegal immigration, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials, third-place primary finisher Brady Butler (who received 28.9% of the vote) and a few conservative grassroots groups. He received 37.6% of the vote in the primary. Winegeart is also a conservative (though less bombastic than Koch is), promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and cut taxes. She’s backed by the Oklahoma Farm Bureau. She got 33.5% of the vote in the primary. Koch has a solid financial advantage over her as well. I think Koch should be the favorite here.

SD-32 (Northern Comanche County, Trump+23) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

In a major upset, far-right Republican incumbent Dusty Deevers (a Christian nationalist who wanted to ban pornography and no-fault divorces) came in third in the primary for this deeply Republican district. Neither of his two (less right-wing) opponents cracked 50% though, so doctor Jean Hausheer and pastor Curtis Erwin are facing off in the runoff tonight.

Hausheer calls herself a “Christian Conservative” who will stand with President Trump, oppose abortion, and eliminate the state income tax. She’s backed by Lawton Mayor Stan Booker, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Oklahoma Farm Bureau, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. She received 37% of the vote in the primary. Erwin is also a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and support law enforcement. He received 33.1% of the vote in the primary. Hausheer has a solid financial advantage over Erwin. With the establishment lining up behind Hausheer and her having a financial advantage, I think she wins over Erwin.

SD-34 (Eastern Tulsa area, Trump+26) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

Republican incumbent Dana Prieto is facing off against businessman Aaron Forst in the runoff for this deeply Republican district.

I don’t want to say Prieto is running scared, but let’s be honest here he’s running scared. He’s got this blurb on his website even questioning why someone would dare run against him:

I feel like asking why anybody would try to primary you is one of the most arrogant questions a politician can ask. Like, you’re offended that someone is challenging you? It’s politics, welcome to the big leagues kid. Anyway, he’s a conservative (aligning himself with the Freedom Caucus), touting his efforts to cut taxes, defend the 2nd Amendment, and protect “parental rights.” He’s backed by OK-01 Congressman/US Senate nominee Kevin Hern, OK-02 Congressman Josh Brecheen, several Freedom Caucus-aligned legislators, the NRA, and several conservative grassroots groups. In case you’re wondering why I know he’s running scared, he only received 29.4% of the vote in the primary. That was against three opponents, but that’s one of the weakest showings I’ve seen from an incumbent in a primary this year in any state! Forst is a conservative (though less right-wing than Prieto is), touting his Christian faith, promising to increase regulations on data centers, and wanting to expand economic development. He’s backed by several State Senators and several firefighter unions. He got 27.3% of the vote in the primary. Forst has a slight financial advantage over Prieto. With Prieto whining and only getting 29% of the vote in the primary, I think Forst actually wins this one relatively easily. The only other candidate this year who got this small of a percentage of the vote in a primary (and advanced to a runoff) was Georgia Democratic State Representative Mary Ann Santos. She got 26.5% of the vote in her primary and was then demolished in the runoff, losing 88-12. I don’t think this will be as lopsided as that, but Prieto winning would be surprising to me.

HD-01 (McCurtain/southern LeFlore Counties, Trump+70) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

Two Republicans advanced to the runoff to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Eddy Dempsey in this deeply Republican district: former McCurtain County Commissioner Chris White and businessman George Phipps.

White is a standard Republican, wanting to protect local water rights, improve local infrastructure, and protect rural education. He’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. He received 40.7% of the vote in the primary. Phipps is running on a similar platform, wanting to cut taxes, expand local control of education, and support farmers/ranchers. He received 33% of the vote in the primary. White has slightly outpaced Phipps in fundraising, but Phipps has outpaced him in spending. Pure toss-up here, but I think White wins this one.

HD-09 (Claremore area, Trump+47) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

With Republican incumbent Mark Lepak term-limited, two Republicans are in tonight’s runoff to succeed him in this deeply Republican district: Rogers County Emergency Management Director Scotty Stokes and political aide Crystal Campbell.

Stokes is a standard Republican, promising to defend “parental rights,” improve public education (lambasting the fact that Oklahoma is 50th place in public education rankings in America), and crack down on crime. He’s backed by several firefighter unions. He got 42.6% of the vote in the primary. Campbell is also a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, protect law enforcement, and expand school choice. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Lepak, State Representative/OK-01 nominee Mark Tedford, the Oklahoma Farm Bureau, and the Oklahoma Chamber of Commerce. She received 33.5% of the vote in the primary. Campbell has a huge financial advantage over Stokes. With the establishment lining up behind Campbell, I think she wins this one, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stokes emerge as the victor.

HD-18 (Hughes/Okfuskee/western Pittsburg Counties, Trump+62) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

Republican incumbent David Smith is trying to fend off a challenge from school superintendent Pamela Gordon in the runoff for this deeply Republican district.

Smith is a standard Republican, touting his efforts to protect farmers, expand economic development, and improve government transparency. He’s backed by the Oklahoma Farm Bureau. He received 47.4% of the vote in the primary. Gordon is also a standard Republican, wanting to protect rural education (while also supporting school choice), expand economic development, and protect property rights for farmers/ranchers. She received 30.5% of the vote in the primary. Smith has a solid financial advantage over Gordon. With Smith’s incumbency, financial advantage, and closeness to 50% in the primary, I think he wins here.

HD-19 (Choctaw/Pushmataha/eastern Bryan Counties, Trump+70) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

With Republican incumbent Justin Humphrey running for Lieutenant Governor (and losing in the primary), two Republicans advanced to the runoff to succeed him in this deeply Republican district: Pushamataha County Commissioner Michael Brittingham and gamefowl lobbyist Anthony DeVore.

Brittingham is mostly running on his record in local government, touting his efforts to improve local infrastructure, bring more state funding to the area, and support “parental rights.” He’s backed by several local elected officials, third-place primary finisher Derek Porter (who got 25.2% of the vote), the Oklahoma Farm Bureau and several conservative grassroots groups. He received 49.1% of the vote in the primary. DeVore is a conservative, promising to fight “leftist government overreach,” crack down on crime, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He also may have been taking his job as President of the Oklahoma Gamefowl Association a bit too seriously, because this happened to him earlier this year:

(Oklahoma Voice)

You know, back in 2002, Oklahoma had a referendum to ban cockfighting. This part of the state opposed the ban by over 50 points, so DeVore almost definitely isn’t the only person in the district to have viewed a cockfight for sure. He has also been heavily involved in decreasing penalties for the event, so that should probably tell you a lot about his moral character. He received 25.7% of the vote in the primary. Brittingham has a wide financial advantage over DeVore. Brittingham should win this one relatively easily. I hope so at least, because we just saw a neoconfederate elected in Florida, so I don’t want to add “convicted cockfighting viewer” to the list of new state legislators for 2026.

HD-38 (Grant County to northern Logan County, Trump+66) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

With Republican incumbent John Pfeiffer running for State Labor Commissioner, two Republicans advanced from a field of six to tonight’s runoff to succeed him in this deeply Republican district: farmer Madison Bolay and conservative activist Danielle Deterding.

Bolay (who looks like JD Vance if someone tried to draw JD Vance from memory) is a standard Republican, promising to improve local infrastructure, expand rural broadband, and defend rural schools. He’s backed by the Oklahoma Farm Bureau and the Oklahoma Chamber of Commerce. He received 31.6% of the vote in the primary. Deterding is a right-winger, promising to stand with President Trump, oppose the “woke agenda,” and stop foreign ownership of Oklahoma lands. She got 26.5% of the vote in the primary. Deterding has a solid financial advantage over Bolay. Despite that, I think Bolay’s institutional support ultimately gets him the win here.

HD-47 (Mustang area, Trump+43) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

Two Republicans advanced to the runoff to succeed Republican incumbent Brian Hill (who lost his primary for Lieutenant Governor) in this deeply Republican district: businessman Kevan Gentry and school board member Toby Thompson.

Gentry is a standard Republican, wanting to improve local education, cut costs, and cut taxes. He’s backed by Canadian County Sheriff Chris West and the Fraternal Order of Police. He got 31.9% of the vote in the primary. Thompson is a right-winger, promising to fight “liberal judicial activism,” support “biblical principles,” and oppose the “radical LGBTQ agenda.” He’s backed by third-place primary finisher Kevin Warnemuende (who received 21.6% of the vote in the primary). He received 30.6% of the vote in the primary. Gentry has a slight financial advantage over Thompson. This one will be very close, with Gentry being the establishment pick and Thompson getting the grassroots (and a primary loser) behind him. I’ll go with Thompson to win thanks to consolidating the right-wing base behind him.

HD-81 (Central Edmond, Trump+15) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

Two Republicans advanced to the runoff to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Mike Osburn in this solidly Republican district: real estate agent Troy Talley and businessman Rusty Rains.

Talley is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend “religious liberty,” and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police. He got 47.5% of the vote in the primary. Rains is a standard Republican, wanting to cut red tape for businesses, eliminate “wasteful spending,” and support public education. He’s backed by the Oklahoma Chamber of Commerce and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. He received 35.8% of the vote in the primary. Rains has a slight financial advantage over Talley. With how close he got to 50% in June, I think Talley wins this one.

HD-91 (Southern Oklahoma City, Trump+26) (R-Held) (GOP RUNOFF):

With Republican incumbent Chris Kannaday term-limited, two Republicans advanced to the runoff to replace him in this deeply Republican district: police detective Teresa Sterling and attorney Roberto Seda.

Sterling is a conservative, promising to crack down on crime, ban “woke indoctrination” in schools, and defend the 2nd Amendment. She’s backed by the Oklahoma Farm Bureau, the Fraternal Order of Police, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. She received 32.1% of the vote in the primary. Seda is a standard Republican, wanting to eliminate “wasteful spending,” cut costs, and freeze property taxes for seniors. He’s backed by third-place primary finisher Michael Fleming (who received 23.8% of the vote in the primary) He got 28.1% of the vote in the primary. Sterling has a slight financial advantage over Seda. This one’s a bit weird, as Sterling has spent the last few weeks complaining about her primary opponents (that didn’t make the runoff) endorsing Seda because of a vendetta against outgoing Representative Kannaday. She’s also trying to attack Seda for not being conservative enough while also deflecting criticism of being a carpetbagger (claiming that she’s proud to have escaped the “Communist State of Norman”) and for declaring bankruptcy. It’s been a messy, messy runoff that I think the Oklahoma GOP is just glad is over after tonight. Pure toss-up here, but I think Sterling wins this one.

HD-99 (East-central Oklahoma City, Harris+56) (D-Held) (DEM RUNOFF):

In the only Democratic runoff on the legislative level tonight, we have two Democrats vying for this vacant deeply Democratic seat: doctor Herschel Brown and businessman Carlos Robinson.

Brown is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting healthcare costs, expanding funding for public education, and protecting senior services. He’s backed by State Representative Aletia Timmons and several local pastors. He received 37.2% of the vote in the primary. Robinson wants to improve local education, expand workforce development programs, and support small businesses. He got 24.1% of the vote in the primary. Brown has a wide financial advantage over Robinson. I think Brown wins here.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back next Tuesday to cover all of the state legislative primaries going down in Massachusetts. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Florida Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Tonight is our final multi-state primary night, with primaries in three Republican-favoring states: Alaska, Florida, & Wyoming. We’ve already covered the two small states that have primaries tonight (Alaska & Wyoming), so now let’s cover the complete opposite with Florida! Let’s get to it!

SD-10 (Seminole County/northern Orlando, Trump+1) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running for the party nod to challenge Republican incumbent Jason Brodeur in this ultra-competitive district: Maitland Mayor John Lowndes and former Seminole County Soil & Water Conservation District Board member H.A. Duncan. Lowndes is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, lower insurance costs, and protect the local environment. He’s backed by FL-10 Congressman Maxwell Alejandro Frost, several state legislators/local elected officials, and the AFL-CIO. Duncan is a moderate, wanting to cut costs, crack down on crime, and expand workforce development programs. Lowndes has a huge financial advantage over Duncan and should be able to use that/institutional support to easily win this one.

SD-16 (Eastern Tampa to southern St. Petersburg, Harris+26) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Darryl Rouson term-limited, two Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: State Representative/House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell and State Representative Michele Rayner.

Driskell is a liberal, promising to protect workers’ rights, expand funding for public education, and expand Medicaid. She’s backed by the Sierra Club and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Rayner is running to her left, touting her efforts to support the Black community, stand up to big tech, and stand up to Republican Governor Ron DeSantis (calling herself DeSantis’s worst nightmare). She’s backed by several state legislators (though some she claimed are sole endorsements either never endorsed her or endorsed both or just straight up endorsed Driskell). Driskell has a wide financial advantage over Rayner and she’s being helped by outside groups like Meta! They’ve pumped a few thousand dollars into this race after Rayner sponsored a bill to ban children under the age of 14 from accessing social media. Rayner’s also been the victim of some truly stupid attacks from her opponents, like this:

Yeah, I don’t know, I think you’ll have a hard time convincing voters that an ardent anti-DeSantis/Trump Democrat is actually a Republican in disguise. We do have a poll of this race from late July that showed Driskell leading Rayner 33-19, with almost half of the electorate still undecided. I’ll give the edge to Driskell thanks to her financial support, but I can definitely see Rayner winning thanks to stronger-than-expected progressive turnout.

SD-18 (Southern Pinellas County, Trump+10) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this solidly Republican district: insurance agent Karla Kemp and property manager Linda Kellis Harris. Kemp is a progressive, supporting medicare-for-all, wanting to raise taxes on the rich, and promising to cut insurance costs. Harris is a standard Democrat, wanting to lower housing costs (while adding that she’ll probably be homeless by the end of 2027. Why? Apparently her home is to be demolished for apartments), stop culture wars in schools, and improve government transparency. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising. I’ll give the edge to Kemp solely because she’s running the more active campaign.

SD-20 (Northern Manatee/southern Hillsborough Counties, Trump+19) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this solidly Republican district: real estate broker John Houman and businessman Gerald Baldi. Houman wants to make it easier for residents to get recovery efforts after hurricanes, safeguard the environment, and defend reproductive freedom. He also calls himself “Mr. Manners” and has numerous photos of himself with his pet bird:

Baldi doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online. Neither of these guys have raised that much/spent that much money. So, screw it, I’m going with Mr. Manners to win because of the bird.

SD-22 (Sarasota/southern Manatee Counties, Trump+18) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent/RNC Chairman Joe Gruters term-limited, two Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: State Representative James Buchanan and Sarasota County Public Health Board member Vic Rohe.

Buchanan (the son of FL-16 Congressman Vern Buchanan) is a conservative. I say that because he calls himself one, not because he has much of a campaign platform available. Because he absolutely does not have a campaign platform available. Rohe is mostly running in opposition to a Constitutional Convention. Buchanan is the heavy favorite to win here and complete a weird sort of swap between the Buchanan and Gruters families. So, Vern Buchanan is retiring from Congress and the top contender to replace him is Senator Gruters’s wife Sydney. Now Joe is term-limited in the Senate and the number one candidate to replace him is Congressman Buchanan’s son James. Medieval Europe had more family variety than Sarasota/Manatee Counties did in the year 2026.

SD-30 (Northern Broward County, Harris+8.5) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running in this Democratic-leaning district: insurance professional Jerusa Zitta and businessman Hector Rivera. Zitta is a conservative, promising to defend “religious freedom,” oppose abortion, and cut taxes. Rivera (whose website plays “Hail to the Chief” as soon as you enter it) is a standard Republican, wanting to cut insurance costs, stop “overdevelopment,” and implement an “AI-integrated weapon detection system” for schools. Zitta has a solid financial advantage over Rivera and seems much more active in the grassroots scene in south Florida, so I think she wins this one.

SD-34 (Northern Miami area, Harris+39) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Shevrin Jones running for FL-24, three Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: State Representative Ashley Gantt, businesswoman Shannan Ighodaro, and businesswoman Christine Sanon-Jules.

Gantt is a liberal, promising to expand funding for public education, expand access to affordable housing, and protect the environment. She’s backed by outgoing Senator Jones, Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, Miami Mayor Eileen Higgins, a bunch of State Senators/local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Ighodaro (who also goes by Lady) is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand workforce development programs, expand economic development, and improve public safety. Her husband actually ran for this seat against Jones in 2020 and ran a very anti-LGBTQ+ campaign (Jones is gay), saying that he believed in “traditional marriage and family values.” Now, we have no proof if Shannan believes in that, but I can imagine why some Democrats would be pretty concerned seeing that last name pop up here again. Sanon-Jules is a liberal, focusing on cutting housing costs, expanding access to childcare, and expanding access to healthcare (namely telehealth). She’s backed by several local elected officials. Gantt has a wide financial advantage over Sanon-Jules, with Ighodaro lagging behind both of them. Gantt should be the favorite to win here.

HD-02 (Southern Escambia County, Trump+19) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running to succeed term-limited Republican incumbent Alex Andrade in this solidly Republican district: US Navy veteran Jon Fay and US Army veteran Trei McMullen.

Fay calls himself an “America First Fighter” who will cut insurance costs, cut taxes, and stand with President Trump and Governor DeSantis to crack down on crime. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Andrade, FL-01 Congressman Jimmy Patronis, the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group, the Florida Chamber of Commerce, the Fraternal Order of Police, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. McMullen is a standard Republican, wanting to improve school safety, expand economic development, and improve local infrastructure. He’s backed by former State House Speaker/gubernatorial candidate Paul Renner. Fay has a huge financial advantage over McMullen. Fay’s institutional support should be enough to get him the win here.

HD-06 (Bay County, Trump+47) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: nurse Stephanie “Lyn” Leonard and businessman/2024 nominee Jerry Wyche. Leonard is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand economic development, cut costs, and protect the local environment. Wyche hasn’t updated any of his social media pages in over a year. Leonard has slightly outpaced Wyche in fundraising. So, what will win out? A more active campaign from Leonard or name recognition from 2024 for Wyche. I’ll go with Leonard, but it can really go either way.

HD-09 (Eastern Tallahassee to Madison County, Harris+4) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running for the party nod to challenge Democratic incumbent Allison Tant in this Democratic-leaning district: insurance agent Jibri Knight and a self-professed “AI engineer” named Tracy Robinson. Knight is a standard Republican, wanting to eliminate property taxes, protect the local environment, and support small businesses. Robinson doesn’t really have much of a campaign platform outside of promising to “put the community first.” Neither candidate has raised much money, but Knight does have the advantage in that category so I guess I’ll give him the win here. It’s funny, this is theoretically one of the only competitive State House districts in north Florida and the Republicans just aren’t trying here. That’s probably because Tant is a proven overperformer (she won by 14 points in 2024) and they’ve got better races to spend on this year (almost entirely on defense).

HD-10 (Columbia/Bradford/Baker/Union/northern Alachua Counties, Trump+46.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Chuck Brannan term-limited, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businessman Chase Brannan (Chuck’s son) and farmer Marshall Rawson.

Brannan is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and stop “indoctrination in the classroom.” He’s backed by FL-01 Congressman Patronis, State Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, a bunch of local elected officials, the Florida state Police/Fire unions, the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and the Florida Farm Bureau. Rawson is also a conservative (though there is a lot of evidence to prove that he’s more conservative than Brannan, more on that in a second), promising to crack down on illegal immigration, protect farmers, and oppose abortion. He’s backed by former Congressmen Ted Yoho, Steve Strickland, & Paul Broun, several local elected officials, and several conservative grassroots groups. While Rawson is trying to attack Brannan for the whole nepotism angle of the race, Rawson has faced a lot of scrutiny over his association with the League of the South. That’s a far-right white nationalist group that advocates for the reestablishment of the Confederacy. Rawson said he was involved with the group to protest “Sharia Law” and to defend “traditional marriage” and “southern heritage.” He’s not apologising either, claiming that it’s an attempt at a distraction from the Brannans. So yeah, we have a nepo baby facing off against a neo-Confederate. With Brannan’s institutional support/financial advantage, I think he wins here, sending another Confederate back into the dustbin of history (WHERE IT BELONGS).

HD-13 (Western Jacksonville, Harris+24) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Angie Nixon running for US Senate, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: former State Senator Audrey Gibson and attorney Leslie Jean-Bart.

Gibson is mostly running on her legislative experience, but also wants to increase funding for maternal healthcare and expand economic/school development. She has been a bit of an outsider in the Jacksonville Democratic scene ever since she ran for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023. She lost in the primary, but refused to endorse fellow Democrat Donna Deegan (who ended up winning and becoming Mayor). Deegan, being a better person than most probably would be in this situation, still gave Gibson a job in her administration, a job that only lasted 10 months before Gibson quit after she was put on a performance improvement plan (amidst allegations she wasn’t really doing her job). Despite that, she’s still backed by some of the old guard in Jacksonville politics, namely former Congresswoman Corrine Brown and State Representative Kimberly Daniels. Jean-Bart is a liberal, focusing on cutting costs, expanding access to healthcare, and defending the LGBTQ+ community. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Nixon, Jacksonville State Senator Tracie Davis, and civil rights attorney Ben Crump. Jean-Bart has a slight fundraising advantage over Gibson and a wide spending advantage over her. I’ll give the edge to Jean-Bart here thanks to her stronger institutional support, but Gibson’s name recognition might carry her to a win.

HD-14 (Central Jacksonville, Harris+25) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Kimberly Daniels is probably one of the most conservative Democrats in the legislature today. During her first term in office, she sponsored multiple bills to put Christianity into public schools and even mandated that the Bible be taught in public schools. She said that hurricanes that hit Florida were “God’s will” and that she’s a “prophet.” She’s supported multiple bills to restrict the LGBTQ+ community and is just an all around weird person. Don’t get her started on “witchcraft” or she becomes an 80’s evangelist who thinks if you play Ozzy Osbourne backwards you’ll start praising Satan. Anyway, she got back into office in 2022 with a plurality of the vote and won her 2024 primary by 30 points. That’s despite her still voting with Republicans to ban fluoride in the water and ban “geo-engineering.” She’s facing a challenge from businesswoman Rhian Tutson in tonight’s primary for this deeply Democratic district.

Daniels (who is calling herself “Apostle Daniels”) is mostly running on her efforts to secure funding for the district and support veterans. Tutson is a liberal, promising to fight for criminal justice reform, establish a paid parental leave program, and raise salaries for teachers. She’s backed by State Representative Nixon and State Senator Davis. Daniels has a wide financial advantage over Tutson. Now, Tutson is a better candidate than Daniels’s 2024 opponent (solely because she has way better institutional support), but Daniels’s 30-point win from 2024 will be a lot to overcome. I sadly think Daniels wins here, but I’m definitely not counting out Tutson. You can’t be this conservative in this Democratic of a district and not sweat a primary.

HD-18 (Northern St. Johns County, Trump+34) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republican primary, where Republican incumbent Kim Kendall is facing a primary challenge from US Army veteran Diana Jordan-Baldwin. Kendall calls herself an “America First Conservative” who supports “responsible growth,” wants to raise teacher salaries, and defends “God and religious liberties.” Jordan-Baldwin is a moderate, promising to support veterans, expand access to healthcare, and improve public safety. Kendall is attacking Jordan-Baldwin for being a registered Democrat until 2024. Kendall has a huge financial advantage over Jordan-Baldwin and has incumbency on her side, so she should win this one easily.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: attorney Art Stresing and ghost candidate Heather Anne Smith. Stresing doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s backed by a few progressive groups. Smith has no campaign presence online and hasn’t really raised any money. Stresing should win this one.

HD-21 (Eastern Gainesville to northern Ocala, Harris+21) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Yvonne Hayes Hinson retiring, five Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: doctor Sylvain Dore, progressive activist Antoine Fields, National Science Foundation official Xavier Monroe, political aide Malik Moore, and Hawthorne Mayor Jacquelyn Randall.

Dore is a liberal, wanting to expand access to healthcare, expand funding for public education, and expand funding for the arts/culture. Fields is a progressive, promising to crack down on price gouging, fight for universal healthcare, and establish a paid family/medical leave program. He’s backed by Gainesville City Commissioner Bryan Eastman, the Democratic Socialists of America, Our Revolution, and the University of Florida Democrats. Monroe is a liberal, promising to expand access to healthcare, raise the minimum wage, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Moore is also a liberal, wanting to raise teacher salaries, legalize marijuana, and hold insurance companies accountable for rising costs. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Hinson and several local elected officials. Randall is a standard Democrat, promising to expand economic development, expand funding for public education, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by several local elected officials. Monroe leads the five in fundraising, with Randall & Moore neck-and-neck right behind him, Fields not far behind the top three, and Dore lagging behind the previous four. This one’s a pure toss-up. In the end though, I think Fields wins out here thanks to the establishment splitting itself among three other candidates. If one of those three establishment-backed candidates (Monroe, Moore, Randall) is able to break out, I think it would be Moore thanks to his support from Hinson and somewhat favorable support from Ocala.

HD-23 (Citrus/western Marion Counties, Trump+46) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent JJ Grow is facing a primary challenge from retired state trooper Tod Cloud in this deeply Republican district. Grow is a conservative, focusing on cutting insurance costs, cracking down on illegal immigration, and stopping “government overreach.” Cloud (who tried running here in 2024 but got kicked off of the ballot thanks to a paperwork issue) doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised much money. As such, Grow should win here relatively easily.

HD-24 (Southern Ocala area, Trump+28) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Ryan Chamberlin is being challenged in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district by community activist Scott Wilkins. Chamberlin doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, instead mostly showing off his media appearances, but he’s very much aligned with the conservative voices in the legislature. Wilkins wants to stop “overdevelopment,” support teachers, and stop data centers. He hasn’t raised really any money for his campaign though, so Chamberlin should win this one easily.

HD-25 (Southern Lake County, Trump+17) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Taylor Yarkosky is trying to fend off a primary challenge from businessman Tom Vail in this solidly Republican district. Yarkosky calls himself a “constitutional conservative” promising to crack down on crime, cut costs, and practice “responsible growth.” He’s backed by State Attorney General James Uthmeier and several state legislators/local sheriffs. Vail calls himself a “Christian conservative patriot” who wants to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose birthright citizenship, and defend “election integrity.” He also has a whole section of his website dedicated to restoring “Biblical principles” and opposing “gender confusion,” so yeah he’s a Christian nationalist. Yarkosky has a huge financial advantage over Vail, who will probably only get votes from the most hardcore of right-wingers here. As such, Yarkosky should win this one.

HD-31 (North-central Brevard County, Trump+26) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Four Republicans are running to replace term-limited Republican incumbent Tyler Sirois in this deeply Republican district: former Satellite Beach City Councilwoman Mindy Gibson, attorney Robyn Hattaway, businessman Marcus Herman, and teacher Matt Woodside.

Gibson is a standard Republican, promising to support first responders, defend the Constitution, and support small businesses. She’s backed by several local elected officials. Hattaway is a conservative, wanting to cut insurance costs, “eliminate leftist ideology” from schools, and stand with President Trump to crack down on illegal immigration. She’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police. Herman is also a conservative, promising to cut insurance costs, crack down on illegal immigration, and defend “conservative values.” Woodside is a conservative, promising to defend the Constitution, stop “harmful gender policies,” and expand school choice. Hattaway leads the four in the financial race, with Herman behind her and Woodside/Gibson lagging far behind the top two. I think Hattaway’s financial advantage gets her the win here.

HD-32 (South-central Brevard County, Trump+20) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Brian Hodgers is facing a primary challenge from businessman Mark Lightner in this deeply Republican district. Hodgers is a standard Republican, promising to cut insurance costs, cut taxes, and protect the local environment. He’s backed by FL-08 Congressman Mike Haridopolos, Brevard County Sheriff Wayne Ivey, the NRA, the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group, the Fraternal Order of Police, several local elected officials, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Lightner is a conservative, touting his opposition to abortion, support for the 2nd Amendment, and promise to crack down on illegal immigration. Hodgers has a wide financial advantage over Lightner and should be able to win thanks to that and institutional support.

HD-34 (Indian River County, Trump+28) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Robert Brackett is trying to fend off a primary challenge from doctor Paul Sohi in this deeply Republican district. Brackett hasn’t updated his campaign website since 2024, but he’s been a reliably Republican vote in the legislature. Sohi is a conservative, promising to defend “election integrity,” cut taxes, and defend property rights. He hasn’t updated any of his social media pages since Memorial Day, so I question how seriously he’s taking this campaign. Brackett also has a wide financial advantage over Sohi, so the incumbent should win this one relatively easily.

HD-36 (Northern Seminole County, Trump+3) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Rachel Plakon is being challenged by accountant Joshua Sorto in the primary for this ultra-competitive district. Plakon is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, expand economic development, and raise teacher salaries. Sorto doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised much money. Plakon should win here easily.

HD-38 (Southern Seminole County, Harris+2) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent David Smith term-limited, two Republicans are running to replace him in this ultra-competitive district: nonprofit official Emily Duda Buckley and attorney Marcus Hyatt.

Buckley is a standard Republican, promising to cut costs, lower property taxes, and protect local natural resources. She’s backed by US Senator Rick Scott, Congressmen Patronis & Haridopolos, Agriculture Commissioner Simpson, State CFO Blaise Ingoglia, several state legislators, the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group, and the Florida Chamber of Commerce. Hyatt is a moderate, promising to cut costs, cut taxes, and improve local education. Buckley has a solid financial advantage over Hyatt and should be able to use that/institutional support to get the win.

HD-39 (Northwestern Orange/western Seminole Counties, Trump+3) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Doug Bankson is facing a primary challenge from doctor Carlos Johary in this ultra-competitive district. Bankson is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting taxes, improving local education, and expanding economic development. He’s backed by the Florida Chamber of Commerce. I don’t think Johary really has a campaign platform. Sure, he has a section on his website called “Campaign Platform,” but it reads like he asked ChatGPT to make a list of the biggest issues facing America and summarize them. There’s no policies in there, it’s just a list of issues. He also hasn’t raised any money for his campaign, so Bankson is the heavy favorite to win this one.

HD-43 (Eastern Orlando, Harris+10) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Johanna Lopez running for Orange County Commissioner, two Democrats are running to replace her in this solidly Democratic district: former State Representative Daisy Morales and Orange County Democratic Party Chairman Samuel Vilchez Santiago.

Morales is mostly running on what she accomplished in her one term in the House (not much tbh) and bragging about beating Santiago in the 2020 primary that got her elected to the House. She doesn’t want to talk about everything from her one term in the House though, as she did also vote with Republicans to ban COVID-19 mandates, weaken environmental protections, and restrict “woke” policies. Santiago is a liberal, promising to expand Medicaid, protect immigrant families from the Trump Administration, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Lopez, FL-09 Congressman Darren Soto, FL-10 Congressman Frost, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, the Orlando Sentinel, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Yeah this is really Morales vs the world. Her problem is that she really hasn’t raised much money, which has given Santiago an opening to raise six figures. With institutional support and a huge financial advantage, I think Santiago wins here.

HD-46 (Western Kissimmee area, Harris+12) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Jose Alvarez is trying to fend off a primary challenge from nonprofit executive Robert LeWayne Johnson in this solidly Democratic district. Alvarez is a moderate, wanting to cut taxes for businesses, build more affordable housing, and work with the Fraternal Order of Police to improve public safety. He’s backed by FL-09 Congressman Soto, Orlando Mayor Dyer, Orange County Mayor Demings, and the Fraternal Order of Police. Johnson is promising to “eradicate” homelessness, raise teacher salaries, and improve public safety. Alvarez has a wide financial advantage over Johnson. Alvarez should be fine here, but if he keeps voting with Republicans, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him getting a stronger opponent than Johnson in 2028.

HD-47 (St. Cloud/eastern Kissimmee area, Trump+3) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Funny story, the Republicans are already going into November with a net loss of one seat in the State House. Why? Because Republican incumbent Paula Stark failed to file her paperwork in time and wasn’t allowed on the ballot. Republicans didn’t get a write-in candidate/Independent candidate on the ballot either, so whoever wins tonight’s Democratic primary between community activist Anthony Nieves and businessman Jorge Figueroa will become the next Representative for this ultra-competitive district.

Nieves is a progressive, promising to expand renters’ rights, expand Medicaid, and stop data centers. He’s backed by State Representative/US Senate candidate Nixon, St. Cloud Mayor Chris Robertson, several other local elected officials, and several progressive grassroots groups. Figueroa is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, expand funding for public education, and support small businesses. Figueroa has a solid financial advantage over Nieves, but doesn’t really seem to be running an active campaign (especially compared to Nieves). Nieves has also been on the ballot here in 2022 (as the nominee) and 2024 (losing in the primary), so he’s got solid name recognition. As such, I think he wins this one.

HD-48 (Eastern Polk County, Trump+16) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Jon Albert is facing a primary challenge from businessman Jerry Carter in this solidly Republican district. Albert doesn’t really have much of a campaign platform, but he’s been a reliably Republican vote in the legislature. He’s also backed by President Trump, so that might just seal the deal for him. Carter is a standard Republican, wanting to cut costs, support law enforcement, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Albert has a solid financial advantage over Carter and has Trump on his side, so he should be fine.

HD-53 (Western Hernando/northern Pasco Counties, Trump+36) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Jeff Holcomb running for Hernando County Commissioner, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Hernando County Commissioner Brian Hawkins and Hernando County Housing Authority Chairman John Carroll.

Hawkins is a standard Republican, touting his efforts on the Hernando County Commission to cut taxes, promising to support law enforcement, and wanting to expand economic development. He’s backed by FL-12 Congressman Gus Bilirakis, Agriculture Commissioner Simpson, Hernando County Sheriff Al Nienhuis, Pasco County Sheriff Chris Nocco, and the Florida State Police/Firefighters unions. Carroll is a conservative, promising to crack down on crime, cut costs, and “defend freedom.” He’s backed by FL-13 Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna and the anti-abortion Florida Right to Life group. Hawkins has a wide financial advantage over Carroll. On top of that, he has name recognition from local government and institutional support, so he has to be considered the favorite here.

HD-54 (Eastern Pasco County, Trump+18) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Randy Maggard is facing a primary challenge from realtor Michael Pultorak in this deeply Republican district. Maggard is running on his conservative voting record, touting his efforts to cut costs, crack down on illegal immigration, and ban “DEI/woke ideologies” in schools. He’s backed by FL-12 Congressman Bilirakis, Agriculture Commissioner Simpson, Pasco County Sheriff Nocco, the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and the Florida State Police/Fire unions. Pultorak is running a local-focused campaign, promising to stand up to developers, stop data centers, and build more housing. Maggard has a huge financial advantage here (and has incumbency on his side) so he should be fine.

HD-55 (Central Pasco County, Trump+27) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Kevin Steele vacating this seat in order to run for FL-14 (which very notably does NOT overlap with any of this district), two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: firefighter Walter Price and Pasco County Mosquito Control District Commissioner Matthew “Skeeter” Abbott.

Price is a conservative, promising to support law enforcement, protect “parental rights,” and crack down on illegal immigration. He’s backed by FL-15 Congresswoman Laurel Lee, State CFO Ingoglia, Pasco County Sheriff Nocco, and the Fraternal Order of Police. Abbott is a standard Republican, wanting to cut property taxes, expand economic development, and crack down on “Medicaid fraud.” He’s not endorsed by any major figures, but I just want to add that a guy who works for a Mosquito Control District being nicknamed “Skeeter” is pretty funny. Price has a huge financial advantage over Abbott, so he should be the favorite to win this one.

HD-62 (Southern St. Petersburg to eastern Tampa outskirts, Harris+34) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Michele Rayner running for State Senate, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: former State Representative Wengay Newton and political aide Kyandra Darling.

Newton is almost entirely running on being the most experienced candidate in this race, saying that the district needs someone with “zero learning curve” needed. He’s backed by the Florida State Police/Firefighter unions. Darling is a liberal, wanting to raise wages, expand access to healthcare, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Rayner, US Senator Bernie Sanders, FL-14 Congresswoman Kathy Castor, a bunch of local elected officials, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Darling also has a solid financial advantage over Newton. You might think that Newton’s name recognition could keep him in this one, but he’s been pretty unsuccessful in recent runs. He ran for Pinellas County Commissioner in 2020, but lost. He then ran for St. Petersburg City Council in 2021 and lost. Finally, he ran for this seat in 2022 and lost to Rayner by 15 points. Because of all of that, I think Darling wins here.

HD-63 (Eastern Tampa area, Harris+41) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Dianne Hart term-limited, three Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: community activist Jacqueline Coffie-Leeks, nonprofit official Robin Lockett, and US Army veteran Conrad Schupay.

Coffie-Leeks is a standard Democrat, promising to expand economic opportunity, protect senior services, and expand access to affordable housing. Lockett is also a standard Democrat, promising to improve local education, stop gerrymandering, and expand community engagement efforts. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Hart and several Tampa City Councillors. Schupay is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, protect voting rights, and raise teacher salaries. Coffie-Leeks leads the three in fundraising, with Lockett & Schupay neck-and-neck behind her. Coffie-Leeks has also won several straw polls from the local NAACP and Chamber of Commerce branches. Despite that, I think Lockett wins here thanks to her strong institutional support.

HD-64 (Western Tampa area, Trump+3) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Republican incumbent Susan Valdes is term-limited, but that’s not the whole story. Valdes was originally elected as a Democrat back in 2018 and won re-election in 2024 as a Democrat by five points even as Trump won this heavily-Hispanic district. About a month later, Valdes was out of the Democratic Party and joined the Republicans. Whether this was because she lost a shot at becoming the Hillsborough Democratic Party Chairwoman is up for debate, but the outcome was the same regardless. Now, both parties have primaries to replace her in this ultra-competitive district. Starting with the Republicans, who have two candidates running: IT professional Angel Ramos and attorney Dan Weldon.

Ramos is a conservative, promising to defend “election integrity,” cut insurance costs, and expand “parental rights” in education. He’s backed by 2024 nominee Mara Cruz Lanz and several conservative grassroots leaders/groups. Weldon is running on a vague platform of being “independent,” avoiding “political theater,” and promising to “serve the people.” He’s backed by FL-12 Congressman Bilirakis and several state legislators. He also has a wide financial advantage over Ramos. Weldon’s institutional support should be enough to get him the win.

On the Democratic side, three candidates are running: political aide John Rodriguez, US Navy veteran Luis Salazar, and former Tampa City Councilman Mike Suarez. Rodriguez is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, cut costs, and raise wages. He’s backed by former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman. Salazar is a liberal, focusing on cutting insurance costs, improving market transparency, and stopping insurance fraud. He’s backed by State Senator Brian Nathan (who represents this area in the State Senate), Equality Florida, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Suarez is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, expand economic development, and improve local infrastructure. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials and the Tampa Police/Fire unions. Suarez leads the three in fundraising, with Salazar lagging behind, and Rodriguez lagging even harder behind. I think Suarez wins here thanks to his fundraising/name recognition from his time on the Tampa City Council, but Salazar has run a very good/active campaign, so he should not be counted out.

HD-71 (Western Manatee County, Trump+16) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Three Republicans are hoping to succeed term-limited Republican incumbent Will Robinson in this deeply Republican district: attorney Melton Little, conservative activist Dylan Modarelli, and businessman Jordan Varnadore.

Little is a conservative, promising to defend water rights, crack down on illegal immigration, and cut regulations for small businesses. He’s backed by FL-17 Congressman Greg Steube. Modarelli is mostly focused on stopping “overdevelopment” and opposing data centers. Varnadore is a conservative, wanting to stop “extremist ideologies” in schools, defend the 2nd Amendment, and support small businesses. He’s backed by several local elected officials, the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and the Fraternal Order of Police. Little has a wide financial advantage over Varnadore, with Modarelli not raising much money. I’ll give the advantage to Little here thanks to his financial advantage, but Varnadore’s institutional support might give him the win.

HD-72 (Eastern Manatee County, Trump+26) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Bill Conerly is being challenged in the primary for this deeply Republican seat by US Coast Guard veteran John “Captain” Phillips. Conerly is a conservative, touting his efforts in the House to cut taxes, cut insurance costs, and crack down on illegal immigration. He’s backed by US Senator Ashley Moody, FL-17 Congressman Steube, Agriculture Commissioner Simpson, Attorney General Uthmeier, Manatee County Sheriff Rick Wells, the NRA, and the Fraternal Order of Police. Phillips is also a conservative, promising to stop “overdevelopment,” defend the 2nd Amendment, and support law enforcement. He’s backed by The Bradenton Times and several conservative grassroots groups. Conerly has a huge financial advantage over Phillips, so he’ll probably tell him that he is the captain now and win big tonight.

HD-74 (Eastern Sarasota County, Trump+25) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent James Buchanan term-limited/running for State Senate, four Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Venice Mayor Nick Pachota, US Marine Corps veteran Les Nichols, businesswoman Jennifer Winkler, and political aide Kelly Ann Walker.

Pachota is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, defend the 2nd Amendment, and shrink the size of the government. He’s backed by the Florida State Police/Firefighter unions. Nichols is also a conservative, wanting to cut taxes, oppose abortion, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Winkler is a conservative, wanting to stop “overdevelopment,” cut costs, and crack down on illegal immigration. She’s backed by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and several conservative grassroots groups. Walker is a conservative, promising to defend “election integrity,” cut taxes, and expand school choice. She’s backed by FL-17 Congressman Steube, Agriculture Commissioner Simpson, and Trump lackey Roger Stone. Pachota leads the pack in fundraising, but Walker’s been able to self-fund her way to keeping up with him. Meanwhile, Winkler has lagged a bit behind the top two and Nichols hasn’t raised much money. With MAGA-world lining up behind Walker, I think she wins here. I’m not counting out Pachota though and Walker has started to throw some fire at Winkler as of late, so maybe she’s beginning to surge too.

HD-76 (DeSoto/eastern Charlotte/northern Lee Counties, Trump+37) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Vanessa Oliver is trying to fend off a primary challenge from businesswoman Julie McCormack in this deeply Republican district. Oliver is a conservative, promising to crack down on illegal immigration, cut taxes, and protect farmers. She’s backed by FL-17 Congressman Steube, the County Sheriffs of all three counties in this district, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. McCormack is a local-focused Republican, wanting to protect local natural resources, expand infrastructure funding, and oppose data centers/Flock cameras. Oliver has a huge financial advantage over McCormack, so she should be fine.

HD-78 (Fort Myers area, Trump+15) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

This solidly Republican seat has sat vacant since May thanks to Republican incumbent Jenna Persons-Mulicka becoming Lee County Supervisor of Elections. Now, two Republicans are hoping to fill that vacancy: businesswoman Audrey Brooks and businesswoman Susan Frantz.

Brooks is a conservative, promising to defend “religious freedom,” defend the 2nd Amendment, and improve government transparency. Frantz is also a conservative, wanting to cut insurance costs, crack down on illegal immigration, and stop “overdevelopment.” She’s backed by Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno and several state legislators/local elected officials. Frantz has a huge financial advantage over Brooks, which she should be able to use (along with her institutional support) to get the win here.

HD-82 (Hendry/eastern Collier Counties, Trump+36) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Lauren Melo running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: realtor Bill Poteet and rancher Liesa Priddy.

Poteet is a conservative, promising to support President Trump and Governor DeSantis’s immigration crackdowns, cut “government waste,” and cut taxes. Priddy is also a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, cut taxes, and defend property rights. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Melo, Agriculture Commissioner Simpson, Collier County Sheriff Kevin Rambosk, Hendry County Sheriff Steve Whidden, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Florida Farm Bureau, & the Florida Chamber of Commerce. Priddy has a wide financial advantage over Poteet. I think Priddy wins here thanks to her strong institutional support.

HD-87 (Coastal Palm Beach County, Trump+11) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

The Democrats shockingly flipped President Trump’s State House district back in April, with Democrat Emily Gregory winning here by about 800 votes over Republican businessman Jon Maples. Now Maples is gunning for round two, but he’s joined in the primary tonight by nonprofit director Jonathan Rubin.

Maples is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes and “wasteful spending,” cut red tape for businesses, and protect “parental involvement” in schools. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and the Florida Chamber of Commerce. Rubin is running on a similar platform, touting his efforts to expand school choice, support first responders, and strengthen local natural resources. I think it’s very notable that this is Trump’s State House district and neither man has mentioned him at all, especially when Maples wouldn’t shut up about how the President endorsed him during the special election. Speaking of Maples, he has a solid financial advantage over Rubin. He should be able to ride that and name recognition from earlier this year to the nomination. I do question the Palm Beach County GOP if this does happen though, because do you really want to ride with this again:

(Credit to MCI Maps/Matt Isbell for the map!)

HD-89 (Central Palm Beach County, Harris+1) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are aiming for the party nod to challenge Democratic incumbent Debra Tendrich in this ultra-competitive district: businessman Jeff Buongiorno and former Atlantis Mayor Cathy Higgins. Buongiorno is running as an outsider, with his campaign platform almost entirely consisting of conspiracy theories about stolen elections and claiming that he’s being “censored.” He did run for Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections in 2024 on that platform too, losing by 14 points even as Trump only lost it by 1%. Higgins is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting costs, improving public safety, and protecting school choice. Higgins is the only candidate to even be raising money here, so she should be the favorite to win.

HD-98 (Pompano Beach/Deerfield Beach area, Harris+30) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Mitch Rosenwald is facing a primary challenge from US Army veteran Keith Abel in this deeply Democratic district. Rosenwald is mostly running on his legislative record, touting his efforts to cut insurance costs, improve public education, and secure investments for the community. He’s backed by several local elected officials, the Sierra Club, Equality Florida, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Abel is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to healthcare, protect senior services, and expand economic development. Rosenwald has a wide financial advantage over Abel, so he should be fine here.

HD-100 (Coastal Broward County, Trump+8) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Four Republicans are running to succeed term-limited Republican incumbent Chip LaMarca in this Republican-leaning district: attorney Yoni Anijar, businessman Raul Gallon, doctor Eric Stelnicki, and former Lauderdale-by-the-Sea Mayor Chris Vincent.

Anijar is a right-winger, promising to support President Trump, crack down on illegal immigration, and stop “overdevelopment.” He’s backed by Trump-aligned State Representative Meg Weinberger & State Senator/RNC Chairman Joe Gruters. Gallon is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting insurance costs, stopping “overdevelopment,” and fighting the opioid epidemic. Stelnicki is a standard Republican, promising to cut costs, stop “overdevelopment,” and work towards lawsuit reform. He’s backed by the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group, the Florida Chamber of Commerce, the Florida State Firefighters union, the Broward County Police union, and several other Republican-aligned special interest groups. Vincent is a standard Republican, promising to protect local control, stop “overdevelopment,” and protect the local environment. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Stelnicki leads the four in fundraising, with Anijar right behind him, Vincent lagging behind them, and Gallon far behind the top three. I’ll go with Anijar to win here thanks to Stelnicki and Vincent splitting the establishment vote.

HD-102 (Davie/Plantation area, Harris+4) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Democratic incumbent Michael Gottlieb term-limited (leaving right after calling Elijah Manley, a Democratic candidate for FL-20, not Jewish enough because he doesn’t like AIPAC), both parties have contested primaries to replace him in this Democratic-leaning district. On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: community organizer Jayden D’Onofrio and doctor Mike Friend.

D’Onofrio is a liberal, wanting to cut costs, raise teacher pay, and expand Medicaid. He’s backed by State Senators Shevrin Jones & Lori Berman, the Latino Victory Fund, and the Teamsters. Friend is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut insurance costs, expand funding for public education, and defend reproductive freedom. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Gottlieb, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, and several special interest groups. Friend has a slight financial advantage over D’Onofrio, but D’Onofrio has outpaced him in spending. Friend’s institutional support should get him the win in this very establishment-friendly district.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: attorney Mery Lopez-Palma and firefighter Jason Paul Smith. Lopez-Palma is a standard Republican, wanting to cut insurance costs, support law enforcement, and protect senior services. Smith is running on a similar platform, promising to cut costs, improve local infrastructure, and support law enforcement. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, but Lopez-Palma has a wide spending advantage thanks to self-funding. Because of that, I think Lopez-Palma should win this one.

HD-106 (Coastal Miami-Dade County, Trump+9) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running for the party nod to challenge Republican incumbent Fabian Basabe (who is a whole can of worms that I don’t really have time for right now, more on him when I cover the general election in a few months. In three words, Male Paris Hilton) in this Republican-leaning district: former school board member Lucia Baez-Geller and attorney Ashley Litwin Diego.

Baez-Geller is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, pushing back against the culture war, and fighting back against climate change. She’s backed by several local elected officials, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the Florida Education Association). Diego is running on a similar platform, wanting to cut housing costs, fight back against climate change, and defend reproductive freedom. She’s backed by Miami-Dade County Mayor Danielle Levine Cava, several local elected officials, and the Miami Herald. Diego has the fundraising advantage, but Baez-Geller has kept pace with her thanks to self-funding. This one’s a pure toss-up in all senses of the phrase. With the establishment split, the financial race tight, and even the only poll we have here showing a 39-39 tie, it’s a pure guess as to who wins. I’ll go with Diego, only for the fact that her institutional support seems a hair better than Baez-Geller’s support.

HD-108 (Northern Miami area, Harris+47) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Three Democrats are hoping to succeed term-limited Democratic incumbent Dotie Joseph (who is also running for Governor) in this deeply Democratic district: former State Senator Daphne Campbell, businesswoman Dinah Escarment, and attorney Peter Walsh.

Campbell is another candidate in the (way too) long line of “how the hell did you get elected as a Democrat” politicians. During her time in the House, she spoke out against abortion (using the Bible as her argument) and said that God put her in the House. She had investigations from the IRS over unpaid taxes, allegations of bribery, the whole nine yards. Now she’s trying for another comeback (after failing in 2020 for a State Senate run). She wants to expand access to affordable housing, cut insurance costs, and protect the Haitian community from the Trump Administration (she’s still really popular among the Haitian community here). She’s backed by several local elected officials and the group Stand For Health Freedom, which has almost exclusively endorsed anti-vaxxer Republicans this year. Escarment is a liberal, wanting to strengthen tenants’ rights, expand funding for public education, and fight for criminal justice reform. She’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials, the Miami Herald, and the AFL-CIO. Walsh is also a liberal, promising to protect workers’ rights, raise teacher salaries, and expand Medicaid. Escarment leads the three in fundraising, but Campbell has been able to race out to a big spending advantage thanks to self-funding. There’s a very real chance Campbell wins here thanks to Walsh potentially splitting the anti-Campbell vote with Escarment. But, also, keep in mind that Campbell’s popularity may be waning a bit. She lost her job in 2018 to another future Democratic turncoat (Jason Pizzo), failed to get it back in 2020, and then came in third place when she ran for Mayor of North Miami in 2024. With all of that in mind, I’ll go with Escarment to get a small win over Campbell.

HD-109 (Opa-Locka to central Miami, Harris+30) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Ashley Gantt running for State Senate, four Democrats are running to succeed her in the State House: former State Representative James Bush, union official Satin Fye, businessman Broadway Harewood, and Opa-Locka Mayor John Taylor.

Bush is the final member of the “Comeback Democrats who are way too conservative to be Democrats” Caucus. Why? I’ll let Matt Isbell of MCI Maps give a brief rundown from his 2022 primary preview:

(Matt Isbell/MCI Maps)

That came from his 2022 primary preview, where Gantt unseated Bush by four points. Bush would try and get his seat back in 2024, but lost to Bush by 25 points (with another Democrat taking nearly 20% of the vote). He’s mostly running on his “proven leadership,” wanting to expand economic development, improve public safety, and protect senior services. Unlike Daphne Campbell’s comeback bid in the neighboring HD-108, Bush really hasn’t gotten that much local support. Fye is a standard Democrat, mostly focusing on cutting costs and expanding funding for public education. She’s backed by a few unions. Broadway is mostly running on a single catchphrase: “Broadway Shows Up.” What does he mean by that? I don’t know, he just shows up. Taylor is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, lower taxes, and build more affordable housing. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Gantt, several local elected officials, the Miami Herald, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Taylor also has a wide financial advantage over his three opponents, with Harewood & Bush duking it out for second place, and Fye lagging behind them. With his institutional support and name recognition from local government, I think Taylor wins this one.

HD-113 (Southern Miami, Trump+5) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

This ultra-competitive seat has sat vacant since November 2025 when Republican incumbent Vicki Lopez resigned in order to become a Miami-Dade County Commissioner. That’s probably because Governor DeSantis knows this heavily-Hispanic district would flip blue in a special election, but that’s neither here nor there. Anyway, both parties have contested primaries tonight to replace Lopez. Starting with the Republicans, who have three candidates running: former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, businessman Tony Diaz, and businessman Frank Lago.

Barreiro was a major figure in Miami politics for decades. He either represented Miami in the State House or on the County Board from 1992 until 2018, helping build a new stadium for the MLB’s Miami Marlins and several other shady business dealings. He ran for Congress in 2018, but lost to now-Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar. He then ran for this seat in 2020 and lost by six points (as Trump lost here by 10). Six years later, he’s back (not in pog form). He’s touting his support for President Trump (a bold strategy in a district where he’s almost certainly underwater by double digits), support for tax cuts, and a promise to stop “overdevelopment.” Diaz wants to cut housing costs, take on “big insurance,” and take on “shady politicians,” which is almost certainly a shot at Barreiro. He’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Lago is a standard Republican, promising to improve public safety, improve government transparency, and support small businesses. He’s backed by County Commissioner/former State Representative Lopez and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Lago leads the three in the finance race, but Barreiro has kept himself competitive with self-funding. Diaz has some respectable fundraising, but not enough to keep up with Barreiro & Lago. I think Barreiro’s name recognition gets him the win here, but I’m definitely not counting out Lago.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: businessman Justin Mendoza-Routt and businesswoman Gloria Romero Roses. Mendoza-Routt is a liberal, wanting to build more affordable housing (not luxury condos), expand funding for public education, and protect the environment. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Roses is a standard Democrat, promising to build more affordable housing, expand access to childcare, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by Miami-Dade County Mayor Danielle Levine Cava, former FL-27 Congresswoman/pragmatic socialist Donna Shalala (you cannot take this endorsement away from her), several local elected officials, the Sierra Club, the Miami Herald, and the AFL-CIO. Roses has a solid financial advantage over Mendoza-Routt. I think Roses wins here.

HD-118 (Kendale Lakes/Tamiami area, Trump+35) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mike Redondo is facing a primary challenge from teacher Marco Insua in this deeply Republican district. Redondo is a conservative, promising to cut property taxes, end “radical teachings” in classrooms, and stand with President Trump. Insua is a standard Republican, promising to protect senior services, crack down on crime, and defend “parental rights” in education. Redondo has a huge financial advantage over Insua and has incumbency on his side, so he should win this one easily.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back next week to cover all of the state legislative runoffs in Oklahoma. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Wyoming Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Tonight is our final multi-state primary night, with primaries in three Republican-favoring states: Alaska, Florida, & Wyoming. We already covered Alaska, so now we’re onto Wyoming. Funnily enough, there are no Democratic primaries here tonight, so this is pretty much a brief revival of Grand Old Primary (which if you don’t know, got put on hiatus thanks to me being very busy with this). Anyway, let’s get to it!

SD-01 (Northeastern Wyoming, Trump+80) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

The biggest state legislative primary in Wyoming is the first one we’ll talk about, what a coincidence! Anyway, Republican incumbent/former Senate President Ogden Driskill is trying to fend off a challenge from State House Speaker Chip Neiman in this deeply Republican district.

Driskill is mostly running on his legislative record, touting his efforts to protect the energy industry, fight for ranchers/farmers, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Neiman (who leads the Wyoming Freedom Caucus) is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, cut taxes, and stop the “undermining of parental rights.” Driskill leads Neiman by a wide margin in fundraising, but Neiman has outpaced him in spending. This race is arguably the most important race in the whole state (at least on the legislative level). A win from Neiman shows that the Freedom Caucus (which has been ascendant here for the last few cycles) is here to stay, while a Driskill win shows that the establishment still has some juice in it. With Neiman facing some backlash from being State House Speaker (and passing several controversial Freedom Caucus bills) and Driskill enjoying an incumbency advantage, I think that latter scenario will play out here and Driskill holds on.

SD-05 (Western Laramie County, Trump+42) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Lynn Hutchings retiring, four Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: former State Representative Ben Hornok, businesswoman Lauren Schoenfeld, businesswoman Meagan Herrington, and ghost candidate Ronald McCleary.

Hornok (who was a rare Freedom Caucus candidate to be unseated by the establishment in 2024) is a conservative. He wants to cut taxes/spending, crack down on illegal immigration, and oppose Medicaid expansion. He’s backed by outgoing Senator Hutchings. Schoenfeld is a “commonsense conservative,” promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose abortion, and put “people over politics.” She’s backed by the AFL-CIO and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Herrington is a standard Republican, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, strengthen access to healthcare, and expand “parental involvement” in education. McCleary has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Schoenfeld has a solid financial advantage over Hornok, with Herrington lagging behind. I think Hornok wins here thanks to the moderate/establishment vote splitting between Schoenfeld and Herrington, but if Herrington performs weaker-than-expected, I can definitely see Schoenfeld winning.

SD-06 (Platte/eastern Laramie Counties, Trump+65) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Appointed Republican incumbent Taft Love is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Roy Birt in this deeply Republican district.

Love is a standard Republican, promising to cut regulations, expand economic development, and improve local education. He’s backed by the NRA and the Wyoming Mining Association. Birt is a conservative, promising to protect Wyoming’s natural resources, defend “election integrity,” and expand school choice. He’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, but Birt has actually been able to slightly outpace the incumbent. I’ll go bold here and give the win to Birt, who has harnessed the grassroots to his advantage in this very Republican-heavy district.

SD-15 (Uinta County, Trump+62) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Wendy Davis Schuler has three opponents in tonight’s primary for this deeply Republican district: teacher Chris Katzl, Evanston City Councilwoman Jen Hegeman, and businesswoman Tina Johnson. Schuler is a standard Republican, wanting to expand “parental involvement” in education, expand economic development, and protect senior services. She’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Katzl is a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose abortion, and cut property taxes for seniors. Hegeman doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Johnson is a right-winger, not having much of a platform, but sharing a bunch of right-wing conspiracy theories on her Facebook page. She’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Schuler has a huge financial advantage over Johnson (with Katzl and Hegeman not raising any money). I think Schuler wins here by a pretty healthy margin (mostly because her opposition is split/not really organized to begin with).

SD-19 (Powell/northern Big Horn County, Trump+65.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Dan Laursen retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: State Representative Paul Hoeft and former State Senator RJ Kost.

Hoeft might have a case for best facial hair among all state legislators in America:

He’s a conservative, touting his efforts to cut property taxes, cut government spending, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Kost (who represented this district from 2018-2022) calls himself a “proven conservative leader,” promising to protect farmers/ranchers, expand economic development, and improve local education. He’s explicitly running on anti-Freedom Caucus sentiments, asking voters to vote for him if they were tired of the legislature during the last session. He’s backed by the Wyoming Mining Association. Kost has a wide financial advantage over Hoeft. In the end, I think Kost actually wins here. He’s got name recognition from his previous term (which Hoeft also has thanks to his time as State Representative), but also should be able to use his financial advantage to get him over the finish line. If this year is more Freedom Caucus-friendly though, I definitely expect Hoeft to pull this one off.

SD-21 (Western Sheridan County, Trump+48) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent/State Senate President Bo Biteman running for WY-At Large, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: State Representative Ken Pendergraft and businesswoman Melissa Butcher.

Pendergraft is a conservative, promising to protect “liberty,” cut government spending, and cut property taxes. He’s backed by Turning Point USA. Butcher is a moderate, wanting to expand economic development, improve local education, and protect access to healthcare. She’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Butcher has a solid financial advantage over Pendergraft. This one’s pretty hard to handicap. On one hand, Pendergraft already represents part of this district in the State House. On the other hand, Butcher has a wide financial advantage. I guess I’ll go with Pendergraft to win based on better name recognition, but a Butcher win would not shock me.

SD-23 (Southern Campbell County, Trump+78) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Eric Barlow running for Governor, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: State Representative Abby Angelos and Campbell County Parks & Recreation Director Dwayne Dillinger.

Angelos is mostly running on her conservative voting record, touting her efforts to ban “males from competing in girls’ sports,” oppose abortion, and cut taxes. She’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Dillinger is a standard Republican, promising to cut regulations, defend the energy industry, and cut red tape for small businesses. He’s backed by the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Dillinger has a slight financial advantage over Angelos. I’ll give the edge to Angelos here based on name recognition from the State House, but Dillinger’s establishment/financial support could definitely get him the win.

SD-25 (Western Fremont County, Trump+15) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Cale Case is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Lisa Wilson in this solidly Republican district.

Case touts himself as an “independent thinker” who wants to expand renewable energy production, support “civility,” and defend the 2nd Amendment. Wilson calls herself a “true conservative” who supports “Christian values” and promises to defend “faith and freedom.” She’s backed by the Fremont County Republican Party. Case has a solid financial advantage over Wilson. This one will be very interesting, mostly for the fact that Case could be the most moderate member of the State Senate. He backed Liz Cheney for re-election in 2022 and opposed President Trump’s 2024 bid, but Wilson really hasn’t been able to harness the grassroots that much. In the end, I think Case’s incumbency wins him this one, but I’m not counting out a Wilson win thanks to the grassroots being pissed at Case.

SD-27 (Eastern Casper, Trump+44) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Three Republicans are running to replace retiring Republican incumbent Bill Landen in this deeply Republican district: businessman Jim Corkery, doctor Kevin Helling, and paralegal Marcia Neumiller.

Corkery is a conservative, promising to cut property taxes, improve “government accountability,” and expand school choice. Helling is also a conservative, promising to defend “faith & conservative principles,” and defend “freedom.” Neumiller is a standard Republican, promising to strengthen the local economy, protect “parental rights,” and defend property rights. She’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Helling has a slight financial advantage over Neumiller, with Corkery lagging behind. In the end, I think Neumiller actually wins this one. Casper really hasn’t been friendly to conservative-aligned candidates (more on that later) and Neumiller is the beneficiary of Corkery and Helling potentially splitting the conservative vote.

SD-29 (Western Casper area, Trump+46) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Bob Ide is facing a primary challenge from real estate broker Lisa Engebretsen in this deeply Republican district. Ide doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been aligned with the Freedom Caucus. Engebretsen is running as a standard Republican, promising to protect “Wyoming Values,” support small businesses, and oppose abortion. Ide has a solid financial advantage over Engebretsen and should be favored thanks to that and incumbency.

SD-31 (Eastern Cheyenne area, Trump+34) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Evie Brennan is trying to fend off a primary challenge from State Representative Daniel Singh in this deeply Republican district.

Brennan calls herself a “thoughtful conservative” who wants to expand economic development, improve local education, and protect access to healthcare. Singh is a right-winger, pulling a flashback from the 2000s by opposing same-sex marriage, opposing abortion, and promising to protect “religious freedom.” He’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. He’s also really trying to tie himself to President Trump, with his campaign signs looking very similar to Trump’s signs and posting several photos of himself with the President. Brennan does have a financial advantage over Singh. I’ll give the edge to Brennan here thanks to her incumbency.

HD-01 (Crook/northern Weston Counties, Trump+79) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent/State House Speaker Chip Neiman running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businessman Troy Claycomb and conservative activist Zeta Nuckolls Anderson.

Claycomb is a standard Republican, promising to expand local control, protect the energy industry, and improve local education. He’s backed by the Wyoming Mining Association. Anderson is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 1st/2nd Amendments, and cut regulations. She’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Anderson has a slight fundraising advantage over Claycomb, but Claycomb has a slight spending advantage over her. With the district already being represented by a Freedom Caucus-er in Neiman, I think they’ll continue the streak and elect Anderson tonight.

HD-03 (Southern Campbell County, Trump+83) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Abby Angelos running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: teacher Anne Ziegenhorn and land surveyor Earl Collier.

Ziegenhorn is a standard Republican, wanting to cut costs, protect the energy industry, and expand local control. She’s backed by a few realtor groups. Collier is a conservative, promising to defend “parental rights,” cut property taxes, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by the NRA and a few conservative grassroots groups. Collier also has a solid financial advantage over Ziegenhorn. I think Collier wins here.

HD-05 (Western Goshen County, Trump+59) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running to replace retiring Republican incumbent Scott Smith in this deeply Republican district: farmer Joe Speckner and rancher Karen Weber.

Speckner is a conservative, promising to safeguard “family values,” defend property rights, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by the NRA. Weber is also a conservative, wanting to oppose abortion, cut government spending, and defend “election integrity.” She’s backed by outgoing Representative Smith and the Wyoming Freedom Caucus. Speckner has a wide financial advantage over Weber. I think Speckner wins here thanks to his financial support/better-run campaign, but Weber’s grassroots support should keep her in this one.

HD-06 (Eastern Converse County, Trump+73) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Tomi Strock is trying to fend off a primary challenge from Converse County Commissioner Jim Willox in this deeply Republican district.

Strock is a conservative, touting her efforts in the House to stop children from “sexual exploitation,” expand rights for homeschooling parents, and expand school choice. Willox is a standard Republican, promising to support ranchers, support the energy industry, and improve local infrastructure. He’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Willox has a wide financial advantage over the incumbent. An interesting thing to note is that Strock doesn’t even have any grassroots endorsements behind her. She’s also very clearly trying to go on the offensive against Willox, attacking him for supporting vaccine mandates, not opposing data centers, and supporting wind energy projects. It does seem a bit desperate. Because of all of that, I actually think Willox unseats Strock here.

HD-07 (Northwestern Cheyenne, Trump+18) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Bob Nicholas is facing a primary challenge from Wyoming Air National Guard veteran Deb Mutter Shamley in this solidly Republican district. Nicholas hasn’t updated any of his campaign social media pages since 2024, so he’s obviously not worried about this race. He’s more aligned with the establishment than the Freedom Caucus. Shamley is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, expand “parental rights” in education, and shrink the size of the government. Shamley has actually slightly outapced Nicholas in fundraising, but the incumbent has a wide spending lead. I think Nicholas wins here.

HD-08 (Northern Cheyenne area, Trump+38) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Steve Johnson is trying to fend off a primary challenge from former Wyoming Department of Transportation Director Luke Reiner in this deeply Republican district.

Johnson (a Freedom Caucus member) is a conservative, wanting to cut government spending, eliminate property taxes, and stop “DEI programs” at the University of Wyoming. He’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Reiner is also a conservative (but promises not to align with the Freedom Caucus), promising to protect property rights, defend the 2nd Amendment, and support “family values.” He’s backed by the AFL-CIO and a bunch of Republican-aligned special interest groups. Reiner has a wide financial advantage over Johnson. Let’s get one thing out of the way, Johnson barely won his primary challenge in 2024. He unseated an establishment Republican yes, but only by 39 votes. Now he’s facing a well-funded opponent who has the entire establishment behind him. Because of that, I think Reiner wins here.

HD-09 (Northeastern Cheyenne, Trump+24) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Landon Brown retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: attorney Boyd Wiggam and US Air Force veteran/2024 candidate Exie Brown.

Wiggam is a standard Republican, wanting to expand economic development, oppose abortion, and cut taxes. Brown is a conservative, promising to cut regulations on the energy industry, expand school choice, and defend “election integrity.” He’s backed by the NRA and several conservative grassroots groups. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in the financial race. Brown came within 17 votes of unseating his similarly-named incumbent opponent in 2024. Now that it’s an open seat and Wiggam really hasn’t been embraced by the establishment (while Brown has coalesced the grassroots behind him), I think Brown wins this one.

HD-11 (Central Cheyenne, Trump+9) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are hoping to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Jacob Wasserburger in this Republican-leaning district: businessman Dan McIntosh and US Air Force veteran Paul Wing.

McIntosh is a standard Republican, wanting to increase regulations on data centers, expand economic development, and expand school choice. Wing calls himself a “constitutional conservative” who wants to cut property taxes, defend “election integrity,” and crack down on illegal immigration. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Wasserburger and several conservative grassroots groups. McIntosh has a solid financial advantage over Wing. Wasserburger won this then-open seat’s primary by nearly 10 points in 2024 over an establishment-backed opponent. I think we see something similar here and Wing beats McIntosh, keeping this district competitive in November.

HD-18 (Southwestern Wyoming, Trump+70) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Scott Heiner is trying to fend off a primary challenge from Wyoming Game & Fish Commissioner Kenneth Roberts in this deeply Republican district. Heiner is a conservative, touting his efforts to ban abortion medication, eliminate “gun-free zones,” and cut regulations. He’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Roberts is running on a vague platform of “limiting government” and protecting constitutional rights. He’s backed by a few Republican-aligned special interest groups. Roberts has a slight financial advantage over Heiner. Despite that, I think Heiner wins here. He was able to turn back an establishment-backed opponent in 2024 by over 20 points and I don’t think Roberts will be able to do all that much better.

HD-19 (Eastern/southern Uinta County, Trump+71) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Joe Webb is facing a primary challenge from US Army veteran Chad Stephens in this deeply Republican district. Webb (a Freedom Caucus member) doesn’t really have much of a platform outside of touting himself as a “reliable Republican vote,” which is my shtick damn it. Stephens is a standard Republican, promising to protect local control, defend the 2nd Amendment, and expand economic development. While Stephens has raised more money than Webb, he hasn’t really spent it. In fact, according to the campaign finance records, Stephens has spent a WHOPPING $75 for his campaign. Yeah, unless we’re talking about Ed Durr, that’s not enough to unseat an incumbent. Webb should win here.

HD-20 (Sublette County, Trump+63) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

We could be seeing a major political comeback in Wyoming thanks to the retirement of Republican incumbent Michael Schmid in this deeply Republican district. That’s because former State House Speaker Albert Sommers is running to take his old job back after leaving it to Schmid in order to unsuccessfully run for State Senate in 2024. Sommers isn’t the only candidate running though as US Navy veteran Bill Winney and conservative activist Matt McGinnis are also running.

Sommers led the State House as a somewhat moderate/establishment-backed Speaker. He stopped several culture war bills from receiving votes on the floor, which infuriated the Freedom Caucus. As such, when Sommers decided to run for State Senate, the Freedom Caucus backed his opponent (Laura Taliaferro Pearson). In the end, Sommers lost by three points and was succeeded by Schmid (a Freedom Caucus-endorsee). Now, Sommers is hoping that the pendulum that swung hard enough to the right to take him out has swung back in the opposite direction to get his old job back. He’s running as a standard Republican, promising to support the mining industry, support farmers, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Winney (who has ran for numerous offices in Wyoming over the last decade) is a conservative, promising to oppose “CRT” in schools, expand economic development, and establish a Wyoming version of the Department of Government Efficiency (Elon Musk’s failure of a crusade to promote “government efficiency” in DC). McGinnis is also a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, protect local resources, and support/meatride President Trump (seriously, anyone who has a whole section of their website dedicated to supporting a politician should be accurately called a meatrider). Sommers has a slight financial advantage over Winney, with McGinnis lagging behind them. Sommers should be the favorite here thanks to name recognition and the conservative vote splitting between Winney & McGinnis.

HD-24 (Western Park County, Trump+50) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Nina Webber is facing a primary challenge from businessman Quin Blair in this deeply Republican district.

Webber doesn’t really have much of a campaign platform available, but she is very much aligned with the Freedom Caucus. She also doesn’t really appear to be campaigning that hard, which probably isn’t a good sign when these are some of the headlines that you’ve drawn in the last two years:

(Wyoming News)

(Cowboy State Daily)

Blair is a standard Republican, promising to protect public lands, expand economic development, and defend constitutional freedoms. He’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Blair also has a wide financial advantage over Webber. With Webber’s controversies, I think Blair actually unseats her here.

HD-25 (Powell area, Trump+59) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Paul Hoeft running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Powell Mayor John Wetzel and US Navy veteran Matthew Legler.

Wetzel is a standard Republican, promising to practice “fiscal responsibility,” expand economic development, and defend public lands. He’s backed by the Wyoming Education Association. Legler is a right-winger, promising to oppose abortion, stop “DEI programs,” and “protect girls’ sports.” Wetzel has a solid financial advantage over Legler. Wetzel’s pretty well known here (serving as Mayor of Powell for the last decade) and Legler isn’t running a terribly active campaign, so I think Wetzel wins.

HD-26 (Northern Big Horn County, Trump+71) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Dalton Banks is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Addison Aagard in this deeply Republican district. I’ll keep this simple, both Banks & Aagard are conservative and Aagard had this to say about Banks:

(Powell Tribune)

Listen, I don’t care what you stand for or anything like that, if you say your opponent has done a great job and you have nothing against him, you’re not going to win. Banks is the heavy favorite here, especially considering that Aagard hasn’t raised any money.

HD-28 (Hot Springs County area, Trump+68) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Four Republicans are running to replace retiring Republican incumbent John Winter in this deeply Republican district: rancher Allen Hogg, rancher Carlin Jones, attorney Marshall Keller, and water park owner Roland Luehne.

Hogg is a standard Republican, promising to fight for “fiscal responsibility,” oppose spending cuts for K-12 schools and the University of Wyoming, and prioritize “results over political theater.” He’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Jones is a conservative, attacking “career politicians and unelected bureaucrats” for “stripping away our liberties,” promising to protect farmers/ranchers, and wanting to expand “parental involvement” in education. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Winter. Keller is running somewhere in-between Hogg & Jones, promising to protect local control, defend “religious freedom,” and defend the 2nd Amendment. Luehne doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, instead being embroiled in a legal battle with the state of Wyoming over the closing of his water park. Luehne won that battle (winning $1.8 million and the reopening of his park in the process), but he doesn’t seem like he’ll win this battle for State House as he’s raised no money (good news, he has $1.8 million for his campaign now). Speaking of money, Hogg leads the pack in fundraising, with Jones narrowly edging out Keller for second place. This one will probably come down to who Keller takes more votes from, Hogg or Jones. I think Jones is the answer to that question and Hogg ends up winning.

HD-29 (Central Sheridan, Trump+41) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Ken Pendergraft running for State Senate, three Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Sheridan County Republican Party Chairman James Temple, businesswoman Myca Sturtevant, and ghost candidate Noll Roberts.

Temple is a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose abortion, and support the mining industry. Sturtevant calls herself an “Independent Republican” who wants to expand access to healthcare, support small businesses, and protect public lands. Roberts has no campaign presence online and has spent a whopping $10 for his campaign. Sturtevant has solidly outpaced Temple in fundraising. This one’s a bit weird, as Temple hasn’t really run the best campaign, but Sturtevant is probably too liberal for the district. I can’t really see a district as deeply Republican as this one electing such a moderate like Sturtevant, so I’ll give the edge to Temple (who is pretty well-in with the grassroots base).

HD-30 (Central Sheridan County, Trump+54) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running to replace retiring Republican incumbent Tom Kelly in this deeply Republican district: former State Representative Mark Jennings and businessman Ryan Koltiska.

Jennings (who represented this seat from 2014-2024) is a conservative, saying that he is “Pro-God, Pro-Life/Family, and Pro-2nd Amendment.” He’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Koltiska is a standard Republican, promising to support local education, expand economic development, and protect local control. He’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Koltiska has the fundraising advantage over Jennings, but Jennings has actually slightly outpaced him in spending. Combine that with Jennings’s name recognition from his decade representing this area in the House, I think that Jennings wins this one.

HD-31 (Eastern Gillette, Trump+72) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent John Bear is facing a primary challenge from businessman Douglas Moore in this deeply Republican district.

Bear is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend “liberty,” and stop “RINOs.” He’s backed by Turning Point USA and several other conservative grassroots groups. Moore is running on a vague platform of supporting “hard work and personal responsibility.” He’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Moore has outpaced Bear in fundraising, but Bear has outpaced him in spending. I think Bear’s incumbency gets him the win here.

HD-35 (Southeastern Casper, Trump+46) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Tony Locke is trying to fend off a primary challenge from community activist Christopher Dresang in this deeply Republican district.

Locke is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and defend “election integrity.” He’s backed by Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray and several conservative grassroots groups. Dresang is a standard Republican, promising to protect local control, crack down on crime, and crack down on illegal immigration. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Locke has a slight financial advantage over Dresang. Locke beat Dresang by six points in 2024, so he should be fine again this year. However, 2024 was a very Freedom Caucus-friendly year, so if this year is the year that the pendulum swings back in the opposite direction, then Dresang can definitely pull this one off. For now though, advantage to Locke.

HD-37 (Southern Casper area, Trump+47) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Long time Republican incumbent Steve Harshman is retiring, leaving three Republicans to duke it out to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businessman Brian Costello, businesswoman Donna Rice, and businessman Ross Schriftman.

Costello is a standard Republican, promising to protect local control, expand access to affordable housing, and protect public lands. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Harshman, the Wyoming Education Association, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Rice is running on a vague platform of supporting “freedom and American exceptionalism.” Schriftman is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, cut government spending, and cut taxes. He’s backed by the NRA and several conservative grassroots groups. Rice leads the three in fundraising, with Costello narrowly outpacing Schriftman for second place. With the conservative vote looking like it’ll split between Rice & Schriftman, I think Costello’s consolidated establishment support will get him the win.

HD-38 (Western Natrona County, Trump+60) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Jayme Lien is trying to fend off a primary challenge from Natrona County Republican Party Chairman Rob Hendry in this deeply Republican district.

Lien is a conservative, touting her efforts in the House to cut property taxes, define gender as being based on sex, and enact regulations on AI deep fakes and exploitative images (but also protect AI-generated political speech, because if she didn’t the entire Republican Party’s ad campaigns would be banned from Wyoming). She’s backed by the NRA and several conservative grassroots groups. Hendry is a moderate, wanting to expand economic development, expand access to healthcare, and lower property taxes (while maintaining current spending levels). He’s backed by the Wyoming Education Association and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Lien has slightly outpaced Hendry in the financial race. Lien’s incumbency should get her the win here.

HD-40 (Johnson/eastern Sheridan Counties, Trump+63) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Marilyn Connolly is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Mark Jones in this deeply Republican district.

Connolly calls herself a “True Wyoming Conservative” who wants to shrink the size of the government, support “parents’ rights” in education, and lower property taxes. She’s backed by the NRA and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Jones is a conservative, wanting to cut property taxes, crack down on illegal immigration, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s attacking Connolly for not being conservative enough. He’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Connolly has a slight financial advantage over Jones. Flash back with me to 2024 for a moment:

(Ballotpedia)

These two first met in the 2024 primary for this district, with Connolly beating out Jones by 400 votes and another right-wing candidate (who was backed by US Senator Cynthia Lummis) taking 22%. Now that Jones has the right-wing lane to himself, can he win? I’d be inclined to say yes, but this is a more establishment-friendly area than other surrounding areas. This one’s hard to predict, but I think that Jones ultimately wins thanks to consolidating the grassroots/Freedom Caucus vote from 2024.

HD-41 (North-central Cheyenne, Trump+11) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Gary Brown is trying to fend off a primary challenge from firefighter Erin Edwards in this solidly Republican district.

Brown is a conservative, promising to crack down on illegal immigration, “support God,” and defend “election integrity.” He has come under fire as of late because of some events in his past:

(WyoFile)

That’s not the only charge either, as it was later revealed that Brown served a two-week prison sentence in 2013 in Colorado for harassing another ex-girlfriend, saying evil crap like this:

(WyoFile)

There’s something deeply ironic about someone who’s been to prison twice for harassing women claiming to be an arbiter of who’s a true Christian or not. Edwards calls herself a “commonsense conservative” who will “protect freedoms,” protect the agriculture & mining industries, and keep local education strong. She’s backed by the Cheyenne Firefighters union, the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Edwards also has a slight financial advantage over Brown. With Brown’s recent untangling of his past, I think Edwards will beat him here.

HD-43 (Eastern Cheyenne area, Trump+36) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Ann Lucas is facing a primary challenge from rancher Jessica Crowder in this deeply Republican district.

Lucas is running on her conservative voting record, touting her efforts to cut property taxes, defend “election integrity,” and crack down on illegal immigration. She’s backed by Turning Point USA and several other conservative grassroots groups. Crowder is a standard Republican, wanting to expand economic development, strengthen local education, and expand local control. She’s backed by the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Crowder has a solid financial advantage over Lucas. I think Lucas should win this one (considering she took out an establishment-backed Republican incumbent in 2024 by 18 points), but Crowder has run a great campaign and I wouldn’t count her out.

HD-46 (Western Laramie area, Trump+33) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Ocean Andrew (yes, that’s his real name) is trying to fend off a primary challenge from US Air Force veteran Cam Wright in this deeply Republican district.

Andrew (who also serves as Majority Whip) is a conservative, promising to “reclaim our liberties,” support small businesses, and expand school choice. Wright is a standard Republican, wanting to strengthen local education, expand economic development, and protect public lands. He’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Wright has a wide financial advantage over the incumbent. I honestly don’t know what’s going on with Andrew. He’s running a very inactive campaign and hasn’t really raised any money. Wright’s also a somewhat popular figure in the community already (thanks to a dispute with the University of Wyoming after he was fired from his teaching job for clashing with leadership over fundraising), so I think he actually unseats Andrew here.

HD-48 (Northern Rock Springs, Trump+53) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Darin McCann is facing a primary challenge from Rock Springs Fire Chief James Wamsley in this deeply Republican district.

McCann is a conservative, promising a “strict adherence” to the US Constitution, protecting private property rights, and defending the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by Turning Point USA and several conservative grassroots groups. Wamsley is a local-focused Republican, promising to protect water rights, defend public lands, and protect local wildlife. He’s backed by the Wyoming Education Association and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Wamsley has a slight financial advantage over McCann. With McCann’s incumbency, I think he wins here, but Wamsley is pretty well known in the district so I wouldn’t count him out.

HD-49 (Evanston, Trump+53) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Robert Wharff is trying to fend off a primary challenge from miner David Walton in this deeply Republican district. Wharff is a conservative, promising to “defend freedom,” shrink the size of the government, and stop “government overreach.” Walton is also a conservative, wanting to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and protect public lands. Walton has outpaced Wharff in fundraising, but Wharff has outpaced him in spending. With not a ton of daylight between these two (in terms of policies), I think the incumbent Wharff wins here.

HD-50 (Eastern Park County, Trump+62) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Rachel Rodriguez-Williams running for Secretary of State, two Republicans are running to succeed her in this deeply Republican district: attorney David Hill and doctor Levi Asay.

Hill (who ran against Rodriguez-Williams in 2024 and lost by over 20 points) is a bit of a mixture between the establishment and the Freedom Caucus, promising to expand local control, oppose abortion, and cut taxes. His endorsements match that mix too, getting a combo of grassroots and special interest support. Asay is a standard Republican, promising to practice “fiscal responsibility,” defend constitutional rights, and support farmers/ranchers. Hill has a huge financial advantage over Asay. Combine that with name recognition from 2024 and his combo of grassroots/establishment support, I think Hill wins here relatively easily.

HD-51 (Western Sheridan County, Trump+50.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Laurie Bratten is facing a primary challenge from businesswoman Susan Bigelow in this deeply Republican district.

Bratten is a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, defend property rights, and cut taxes. She’s backed by the NRA. Bigelow is a standard Republican, wanting to expand economic development, practice “fiscal responsibility,” and defend “Wyoming Values.” She’s backed by the Wyoming Education Association and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Bigelow has a wide financial advantage over Bratten. Bratten waltzed into this seat uncontested in 2024, so we have no idea how strong of a candidate she is. She’s facing a big test here though, so it’s either sink or swim for her. In the end, I think she will swim and win thanks to incumbency.

HD-52 (Northern Campbell County, Trump+83) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running to replace retiring Republican incumbent Reuben Tarver in this deeply Republican district: former State Representative Bill Fortner and nurse Ronda Boller.

Fortner doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he was aligned with the Freedom Caucus during his last time in office (2020-2022). Boller calls herself a “pragmatic conservative” who will cut regulations, strengthen rural healthcare, and expand economic development. Boller has a huge fundraising advantage over Fortner, but Fortner has actually slightly outpaced her in spending. Despite that, I think I’ll go with Boller to win as she’s running a much more active campaign compared to Fortner (who’s mostly relying on name recognition).

HD-53 (Central Gillette, Trump+68) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Chris Knapp is trying to fend off a primary challenge from former Gillette City Councilman Greg Schreurs in this deeply Republican district. Knapp doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s aligned with the Freedom Caucus. Schreurs is a standard Republican, promising to serve with “integrity and honesty,” cut costs, and protect access to healthcare. Knapp has a slight financial advantage over Schreurs. I think Knapp wins this one.

HD-54 (Lander, Trump+16) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Lloyd Larsen is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Jeff Martin in this solidly Republican district. Larsen is a standard Republican, promising to protect “family values,” cut taxes, and support law enforcement. He’s backed by the NRA and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Martin (who ran against Larsen in 2022 as an Independent and lost by 26 points) doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence online outside of pulling out of a voter forum because it was organized by the League of Women Voters (whom Martin says aligns with the Democratic Party). Larsen has a huge financial advantage and incumbency on his side, so he should win here.

HD-56 (Central Casper, Trump+27) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Elissa Campbell is trying to fend off a primary challenge from engineer Pete Fox in this deeply Republican district. Campbell is mostly touting her voting record, touting her efforts to expand local control, support small businesses, and practice “fiscal responsibility.” She’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Fox really doesn’t have much of a platform and hasn’t updated any of his social media pages since early June. Campbell has a wide financial advantage over Fox and already beat him 55-37 in 2024, so she should be the favorite to win this one.

HD-57 (East-central Casper, Trump+41) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

This is a weird one. Not because of Republican incumbent Julie Jarvis. No, it’s because of her opponent: former State Representative Jeanette Ward. You see, I actually am very familiar with Ward because she was a school board member in Illinois! She ran for State Senate in 2020 in the race to succeed Republican incumbent/dairy man Jim Oberweis, a race she ended up losing to Democrat Karina Villa:

(This is the second SLEW this month to mention Villa, I’m excited to see what cameo she makes in Florida)

After losing this Biden+10 district by just two points, Ward decided to throw her hands up in the air and move to Casper, Wyoming. She ran for this seat in 2022 and won, succeeding now-Secretary of State Chuck Gray. She aligned herself with the Freedom Caucus, but was defeated by Jarvis in 2024 by 12 points, a rare Freedom Caucus incumbent loser that night. Now, she’s back for round two against Jarvis.

Jarvis is a standard Republican, wanting to expand economic development, defend the 2nd Amendment, and protect small businesses. She’s backed by the NRA and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Ward is a right-winger, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and oppose “degeneracy.” She’s backed by Secretary of State Gray and a few conservative grassroots groups. Jarvis has a wide financial advantage over Ward and (as mentioned previously) already beat her by 12 when Ward had incumbency on her side. Jarvis should win this one.

HD-58 (Northern Casper area, Trump+66) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Bill Allemand is facing a primary challenge from Bar Nunn Mayor Peter Boyer in this deeply Republican district.

Allemand is a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose abortion, and defend “parental rights.” His re-election bid was rocked last year when he was arrested for driving under the influence and it was even further rocked last month when bodycam footage of the arrest came out. In the footage, we saw Allemand doing this:

(Oil City News)

Allemand is attacking the prosecutors for the bodycam footage, saying that he “can’t be beat in court, so they’re trying me in the media.” Which, I mean it’s very blatant that he was drinking and driving, I saw the bodycam footage! His trial’s not until September, so that’s probably why he’s so mad about this. That has left an opening for Boyer. Boyer was a former ally to Allemand until the two clashed over a proposed nuclear energy development in the area. He’s a standard Republican, wanting to expand local control, defend the 2nd Amendment, and expand economic development. He’s backed by the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group. Allemand has outpaced Boyer in the financial race. This one will be close, with Allemand under fire for his DUI and Boyer under fire from Allemand for the nuclear project. In the end, I think the DUI will matter more and Boyer gets the win to unseat the incumbent Allemand.

HD-59 (Mills/western Casper, Trump+45) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent J.R. Riggins is facing a primary challenge from truck driver Neil Jeske in this deeply Republican district. Riggins is a conservative, promising to “protect children,” cut property taxes, and fight back against “abuse from the bureaucratic state.” He’s backed by the Wyoming Firefighters union. Jeske is running to Riggins’s right, promising to oppose abortion, cut taxes, and stop “illegal alien truckers.” He’s attacking Riggins for supposedly wanting to expand Medicaid and being weak on the 2nd Amendment. He also quotes himself on his website, so his head is planted firmly up his own ass. Anyway, he’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. He also has a slight financial advantage over Riggins. Despite that, I think Riggins wins here thanks to his incumbency and the fact that Jeske has faced residency questions (he just ran for Sioux Falls, South Dakota City Council back in 2024).

HD-60 (Southern Green River, Trump+50) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

It’s another rematch from 2024 as Republican incumbent Marlene Brady is being challenged by former State Representative Tony Niemiec in the primary for this deeply Republican district.

Brady doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s been aligned with the Freedom Caucus in the House and has the backing of a few grassroots conservative groups. Niemiec is a standard Republican, promising to support law enforcement, balance the budget, and expand economic development. He’s backed by the Wyoming Firefighters union and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Niemiec has a slight financial advantage over Brady. With how close this race was in 2024 (Brady unseated Niemiec by 46 votes) and how it looks like 2026 will be a bit of a swing back to the establishment, I think Niemiec gets his old job back here.

HD-61 (East-central Cheyenne, Trump+28) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Daniel Singh running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: teacher Andrew Server and Wyoming Air National Guard veteran Seth Bard.

Server is a conservative, promising to expand school choice, oppose abortion, and defend “election integrity.” He’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Bard is a standard Republican, wanting to protect access to healthcare, expand economic development, and support “parental rights” in education. Server is the only candidate to raise money here, with Bard explicitly swearing off “outsider money.” Noble, but it’ll probably be his downfall. I’ll give the edge to Server for this one.

HD-62 (Western Converse/eastern Natrona Counties, Trump+68) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Our final primary and what do ya know, it’s another 2024 rematch! This time it’s between Republican incumbent Kevin Campbell and businessman Edis Allen in this deeply Republican district.

Campbell is a standard Republican, touting his efforts in the House to grow the energy industry, cut property taxes, and protect local resources. Allen is mostly running by attacking Campbell for aligning with the “insiders” instead of the people. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in the financial race. Back in 2024, Campbell beat Allen for this open seat by just six votes! Now that Campbell has incumbency on his side, I think that’ll grow and ultimately get him the win.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back in a bit to cover all of tonight’s state legislative primaries in Florida. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Alaska Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Tonight is our final multi-state primary night, with primaries in three Republican-favoring states: Alaska, Florida, & Wyoming. We’re starting off with Alaska right now, so let’s get to it!

BACKGROUND:

Because Alaska has top-four primaries (where the top four vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to November), there’s not a lot of primaries going down tonight. As such, only primaries with more than four candidates will be covered in this edition.

SD-S (Southwestern Alaska, Harris+2) (D-Held):

With Democratic incumbent Lyman Hoffman retiring, five candidates are running to replace him in this heavily Native Alaskan seat: Independent State House Speaker Bryce Edgmon, former Independent school board president Wayne Morgan, former Independent Mayor of Bethel Rick Robb, Republican perennial candidate Darren Deacon, and Democratic ghost candidate Wassilie Guy.

Edgmon is mostly running on his legislative record, touting his efforts to expand funding for public education and protect the fishing industry. Morgan is mostly touting his service in local government, claiming that makes him the best candidate to carry on Senator Hoffman’s legacy. Robb is promising to support “sustainable” fishing, expand efforts to combat the missing/murdered indigenous peoples crisis, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Deacon and Guy have no campaign presence online. Edgmon should have a spot in the top four locked down thanks to his name recognition from being the State House Speaker. I think he’ll be joined by Morgan & Robb, considering they’re the only other ones running an active campaign. As for the last spot, I think Deacon gets it by virtue of being the only Republican and having name recognition from previous runs for office.

HD-23 (Southern Eagle River, Trump+19) (R-Held):

Republican incumbent Jamie Allard has four primary opponents in this solidly Republican seat: Republican political aide Nick Capozzi, Republican businesswoman Ruby Jones, Democratic businessman Jim Arlington, and Democratic real estate agent Lee Hammermeister. Allard is a right-winger, touting her efforts to stop “child sex reassignments,” stopping fluoride in the water, and “protecting women’ s sports.” She’s backed by the Alaska Republican Party and the NRA. Capozzi is a standard Republican, wanting to expand investments for data centers, expand local healthcare options, and stop new taxes. Jones is a moderate, promising to protect funding for public education, expand economic development, and protect the PFD (the Permanent Fund Dividend, a state-run permanent fund that takes profits from oil and mining revenues and gives a portion of it back to the people). Arlington is a moderate, wanting to protect Eagle River’s “unique character,” hire more police officers, and expand funding for public education. Hammermeister is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, improve local infrastructure, and practice “fiscal responsibility.” Allard’s incumbency should get her a spot in the top four and Arlington was the Democratic candidate here in 2024, so that should get him the second spot. I think Jones gets the third spot thanks to her being a pro-PFD Republican (which has divided Republicans here), and the final spot goes to Hammermeister (who just barely edges out Capozzi).

HD-29 (Valdez/eastern Mat-Su Boroughs, Trump+45) (R-Held):

Appointed Republican incumbent Garret Nelson is facing five opponents in tonight’s primary for this deeply Republican district: Republican realtor Steve Menard, Independent nurse Jessica Kusner-Kalarchik, Democratic climate activist Kimberly Slone, Libertarian tattoo artist Candice Frisby, and Independent ghost candidate Amber Hansen.

Nelson doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence online, but he did do this:

(Alaska Beacon)

Menard is a standard Republican, promising to enact term limits, cut state spending, and expand school choice. He came within 12 votes of being elected to a neighboring district in 2024, so he’s somewhat well known around here. Kusner-Kalarchik wants to improve local infrastructure, protect access to women’s healthcare, and protect the PFD. Slone is a standard Democrat, wanting to hire more healthcare workers, improve energy infrastructure, and protect the PFD. Frisby doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online outside of her tattoo portfolio. Hansen has no campaign presence online. I think Nelson and Menard get the top two spots here and are joined by Kusner-Kalarchik and Slone.

HD-30 (Denali/western Mat-Su Boroughs, Trump+45) (R-Held):

Republican incumbent Kevin McCabe is facing four opponents in the primary for this deeply Republican district: Republican businessman Doyle Holmes, Republican wildlife trooper Doug Massie, Democratic businesswoman Sandra Loomis, and Republican ghost candidate Mike Alexander. McCabe is a conservative, wanting to enact term limits, balance the budget, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Holmes (who ran here against McCabe in 2024 and lost by 10 points) doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online. Massie is running on a vague platform of “putting people first” and improving public safety. Loomis is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand renewable energy production, expand funding for public education, and improve government transparency. She’s backed by the AFL-CIO. Alexander has no campaign presence online. McCabe and Holmes should grab the top two spots, followed by Massie and Loomis by virtue of actually running campaigns ahead of Alexander.

HD-37 (Southwestern Alaska, Trump+7) (Ind-Held):

We’ve got a bit of a clustertruck to replace Independent incumbent/State House Speaker Bryce Edgmon. Why? Because there’s seven candidates running! Those seven are: former Democratic Unalaska City Councilman Dennis Robinson, Democratic community activist Evelynn Trefon, Republican Aleutians East Borough Assemblywoman Brenda Wilson, Independent fisherman Peter Angasan, Independent Cuyung Tribal Administrator Kim Johnson, Independent businessman Mark Smith, and Independent fisherman Cade Woods.

Robinson is a standard Democrat, promising to expand funding for public education, improve community engagement, and protect fisheries. He’s backed by the Alaska State Employees Association and the IBEW. Trefon is running on a similar platform, wanting to strengthen rural education, support Alaska Native languages/cultures, and expand access to affordable energy. Wilson is a moderate, promising to support local fisheries, improve local education, and expand access to healthcare. Angasan wants to improve local education, cut fuel costs, and improve public safety. Johnson wants to cut energy costs (this is me finding out that gas is $14/gallon up here, if anyone from this area of Alaska is reading this, you have my sincerest sympathies). Smith is promising to support fisheries, expand access to healthcare, and protect the PFD. Woods wants to expand economic development and “stand up” for rural Alaska. This is a pure toss-up, but I think Wilson gets a spot based on being the only Republican (and being a local elected official). Robinson will also probably get a spot thanks to his union support. Smith appears to be running a pretty active campaign, so I’ll go with him for spot number three. As for the fourth and final spot, I think Trefon gets it thanks to an active campaign and name recognition (she’s held several local offices in the past).

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back in a bit to cover all of the state legislative primaries going down in Wyoming tonight. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Wisconsin Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Continuing on this breakneck pace of primaries, we’ve reached another slate of four primary states happening tomorrow. Not as big as last week, but primaries in Connecticut, Vermont, and the crucial swing states of Minnesota & Wisconsin will have BIG November implications. We already covered both New England states and Minnesota, so now we’re onto America’s number one swing state (in my heart at least), Wisconsin! So, without further ado, let’s get to it!

SD-01 (Calumet County to Door County, Trump+21) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Andre Jacque retiring, four Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: conservative activist Katie Baney, Calumet County Republican Party Chairwoman Barbara Bittner, political aide Nic Cravillion, and farmer Jacob VandenPlas.

Baney is a conservative, promising to cut property taxes, defend “medical freedom,” and defend the 2nd Amendment. She’s backed by State Representative Ron Tusler (who represents 1/3rd of this district in the Assembly), Turning Point USA, and the NRA. Bittner is also a conservative, wanting to cut property taxes, eliminate “liberal indoctrination” in education, and defend “election integrity.” She’s backed by WI-03 Congressman Derrick Van Orden and several local elected officials (mostly from Calumet County). Cravillion is a standard Republican, focusing on protecting farmers, expanding economic development, and defending “constitutional freedoms.” He’s backed by outgoing Senator Jacque (who Cravillion served as his District Director) and several local elected officials. VandenPlas is also a standard Republican, promising to support veterans, stop data centers, and support hunters. He says he’s backed by small business owners and local officials, but lists no names on his website. Bittner has a slight fundraising advantage over Cravillion, but Cravillion has outpaced her in spending. Meanwhile, Baney has lagged behind the top two and VandenPlas has raised no money. With Cravillion’s institutional support, I think he wins here, but I could see Bittner winning thanks to a big win out of Calumet County and keeping it close elsewhere.

SD-11 (Walworth County area, Trump+28) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Stephen Nass retiring, both parties have contested primaries to replace him in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republicans, who have three candidates running: US Army veteran Nick Polce, former State Representative Ellen Schutt, and Kenosha County Republican Party Chairwoman Sandy Wiedmeyer.

Polce is a standard Republican, wanting to expand economic development, cut healthcare costs, and cut regulations. Schutt is also a standard Republican, promising to support law enforcement, cut costs, and expand “parental involvement” in education. She’s backed by State Treasurer John Lieber, State Assembly Majority Leader Tyler August (who represents 1/3rd of this district in the Assembly), a bunch of local elected officials, Turning Point USA, the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group, and the Wisconsin Farm Bureau. Wiedmeyer is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, oppose abortion, and “protect women & girls’ sports.” She’s backed by State Representative Amanda Nedweski (who represents another 1/3rd of the district in the Assembly. The remaining 1/3rd is represented by State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, who will not weigh in here), Racine County Sheriff Christopher Schmaling, and Kenosha County District Attorney Xavier Solis. Schutt has a slight financial advantage over Wiedmeyer, with Pole lagging behind. I think Schutt is the favorite here thanks to her institutional support, but Wiedmeyer could run up the score enough in Kenosha/Racine to get the win.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: teacher Steve Doelder and East Troy Village Trustee Adam Duda. Doelder is a standard Democrat, wanting to restore “civility,” improve community engagement, and defend reproductive freedom. Duda is also a standard Democrat, promising to cut property taxes, cut healthcare costs, and protect the environment. Doelder hasn’t raised any money for his campaign (with Duda raising nearly $30k), so Duda has to be considered the favorite here.

SD-17 (Crawford County to southern Dane County, Harris+1) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Three Democrats are running for the party nod to challenge Republican incumbent Howard Marklein in one of Wisconsin’s most high-profile competitive races this year (at least on the legislative level): childcare provider Corrine Hendrickson, State Representative Jenna Jacobson, and businesswoman Lisa White.

Hendrickson is a liberal, focusing on cutting costs, expanding access to childcare, and expanding funding for public education. She’s backed by several local elected officials. Jacobson is also a liberal, promising to expand funding for public education, protect the environment, and protect family farmers. She’s backed by several unions. White is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand access to childcare, and support farmers. Jacobson has a huge financial advantage over her two opponents and is the only candidate here to air ads. She also has built-in name recognition from representing a 1/3rd of the district in the Assembly, so I think she wins this one.

SD-23 (Barron County to Clark County, Trump+37) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: farmer Jeff Foster and firefighter Richard Pulcher. Foster doesn’t really have much of a platform, but he is backed by the AFL-CIO and Wisconsin’s largest teachers union (the Wisconsin Education Association Council). Pulcher is running on a bit of a unique platform, believing that nobody is above the law, wanting to improve the community, and promising to practice the “Golden Rule,” AKA treat others how you want to be treated (I went to Catholic schools my entire childhood, this is my area of expertise). Foster is the only candidate to have raised money here, so I’ll give him the win.

SD-25 (Northwestern Wisconsin, Trump+14) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Romaine Quinn vacating this seat to run for SD-23, two Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: former State Representative Angie Sapik and doctor Erik Severson.

Sapik is mostly running on her record in the State Assembly, touting her efforts to secure infrastructure funding, cut taxes, and crack down on crime. She’s backed by several of her former colleagues in the legislature. Severson (who also used to serve in the State Assembly) is a standard Republican, focusing on protecting rural healthcare, cutting taxes, and protecting hunters. He’s backed by State Representative Duke Tucker (who represents the southern 1/3rd of the district in the Assembly). Sapik has a solid financial advantage over Severson, but both candidates have raised six figures in cash. This one’s going to come down to a geographical battle more than anything else. Sapik is from the northern part of the district, while Severson is from the southern part. In the end, I think Sapik ultimately pulls this one out, but it will be very close.

AD-08 (South-central Milwaukee, Harris+47) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Want to know how to kill your political career with just a few simple actions? Ask Democratic incumbent Sylvia Ortiz-Velez, because she did that and then some last year. It all started when fellow Democratic Representative Priscilla Prado was drafting a resolution honoring Hispanic veterans. Ortiz-Velez claimed that Prado intentionally excluded her from the process (despite Ortiz-Velez’s late husband being a Hispanic veteran), sending her this email:

(Associated Press)

A little bit after that, she did this:

(Wisconsin Examiner)

She ended up quitting the Democratic Caucus shortly thereafter, but was actually later charged with a misdemeanor for disorderly conduct after she also threatened to “expose negative personal information” about Representative Prado. She pleaded no contest to that and paid a $300 fine. So, where does that leave her now? Up a metaphorical creek without a paddle, because not only did she do all of this, she also racked up a pretty conservative voting record. She voted against Governor Evers’s redistricting proposal, the 2025 Republican budget, and voted to classify gig workers as independent contractors, the only Democrat to do so on each measure. That has left an opening for a primary challenge and nonprofit official Ismael Luna has stepped up to the plate.

Ortiz-Velez doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence online, but in a few campaign interviews I’ve found, she does support protecting immigrant communities and opposes data centers. Luna is a liberal, wanting to improve local infrastructure, expand access to affordable housing, and expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right). He’s backed by Milwaukee County Executive/gubernatorial candidate David Crowley, several state legislators/local elected officials (including Representative Prado and Milwaukee Alderwoman JoCasta Zamarippa, who preceded Ortiz-Velez in this district), the Working Families Party, and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Luna also has a wide financial advantage over Ortiz-Velez. I think Luna wins this one relatively easily and unseats the most controversial Democrat in the legislature.

AD-09 (Southwestern Milwaukee, Harris+34.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Speaking of State Representative Priscilla Prado, she’s facing a primary challenge from school board member Mimi Reza in this deeply Democratic district. Prado is a liberal, promising to support local immigrants, focus on the root causes of crime, and raise wages. She’s backed by Milwaukee County Executive Haywood, several state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions. Reza, from what I can discern from her anime AI slop-filled Instagram page, wants to cut taxes, improve public safety, and expand funding for public education. Prado has a huge financial advantage and incumbency/institutional support on her side, so she should win here.

AD-12 (Northwestern Milwaukee, Harris+61) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Russell Goodwin is trying to fend off a primary challenge from community organizer Jordan Roman in this deeply Democratic district.

Goodwin is a moderate, wanting to improve public safety, cut property taxes, and expand economic development. He’s also faced criticism for voting with Republicans to restrict trans athletes in K-12 sports, being the only Democrat to do so. He’s backed by several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and the Wisconsin Education Association Council). Roman is a liberal, wanting to raise wages, expand funding for public education, and expand community policing efforts. He’s backed by the Working Families Party. Roman also has a wide financial advantage over Goodwin. This one’s going to be close. Goodwin hasn’t really campaigned that hard, but he has incumbency and union support behind him. On the other hand, Roman has progressive support behind him and a financial advantage. In the end, I’ll go bold and say Roman unseats Goodwin.

AD-13 (Wauwatosa/Elm Grove/eastern Brookfield, Harris+21) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Robyn Vining running for State Senate, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: Brookfield Parks & Recreation Commissioner Amy Zimmerman and attorney David Sanchez.

Zimmerman is a liberal, wanting to expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), protect the environment, and raise the minimum wage to $20/hour. She’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials and Run For Something. Sanchez is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand access to childcare, and cut property taxes. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials (mostly from Wauwatosa). Sanchez has a slight financial advantage over Zimmerman. This one will be close, but I think Zimmerman ultimately picks up the win thanks to slightly better institutional support.

AD-19 (Eastern Milwaukee, Harris+61) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Most people following Wisconsin politics from the outside know of Francesca Hong, the Democratic socialist State Representative running for Governor. But did you know Wisconsin has another DSA State Assembly member? That honor belongs to Ryan Clancy, who represents this deeply Democratic district covering the lakefront of Milwaukee (a city with a long socialist history, ask Alice Cooper). He was first elected in 2022 and fended off a moderate challenger in 2024 (despite plenty of establishment support for his opponent) by nearly 10 points. He’s facing another establishment-backed opponent this year in the form of businesswoman Bridget Maniaci.

Clancy is a democratic socialist, promising to “roll back” charter schools, raise the minimum wage to $20/hour, and fight for a single-payer/universal healthcare system. He’s backed by MN-05 Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, State Representative/gubernatorial candidate/fellow democratic socialist Francesca Hong, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Working Families Party, and several unions (most notably the Wisconsin Education Association Council). Maniaci (who used to serve as an Alderwoman in Madison) is a progressive, wanting to strengthen tenant protections, raise the minimum wage, and cut utility costs. She’s backed by a few local elected officials. Maniaci has outpaced Clancy in the financial department, but not by a lot. With the DSA as a whole looking like they’ll have a pretty good night in Wisconsin (and Maniaci not really getting as much establishment support as Clancy’s 2024 opponent did), I think Clancy wins this one relatively easily.

AD-21 (Oak Creek/southern Milwaukee, Harris+4) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Jessie Rodriguez retiring, the Democrats have a golden opportunity to flip this ultra-competitive district. They have to pick their nominee first though, choosing tonight between two candidates: Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz and nonprofit director David Liners.

Bukiewicz (who is also President of the local Building & Construction Trades Council) is a standard Democrat, promising to improve public safety, cut costs, and stop data centers. He’s backed by US Senator Tammy Baldwin, former Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, and several unions. Liners is running to his left, wanting to expand funding for public education, stop data centers, and fight back against climate change. He’s backed by State Representative Hong and several other progressive state legislators/local elected officials. He did attract a bit of controversy as of late though as his name was found in an Ashley Madison (a website designed from married men/women to cheat on their spouses) data breach. He was on the website while married to his wife of three decades and responded by saying that he did “something stupid.” Bukiewicz has a huge financial advantage over Liners and should be able to ride that/institutional support/name recognition to a win here. Liners should be able to get some progressive votes though.

AD-26 (Sheboygan area, Harris+3) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Three Republicans are running for the party nod to challenge Democratic incumbent Joe Sheehan in this ultra-competitive district: former Sheboygan Alderman John Belanger, businessman James Brotz, and businessman Tyler Schneekloth. Belanger is a standard Republican, wanting to cut costs, enact “fiscal responsibility,” and “secure the border.” Brotz is a right-winger, wanting to cut taxes, defend “election integrity,” and support ICE (a bold/stupid move in a district that voted for Harris). Schneekloth wants to cut housing costs, stop data centers, and cut the income tax. Emphasis on the data center issue, because he’s been hammering Belanger nonstop about it. Belanger has a huge financial advantage over his two opponents, so he should win this one.

AD-33 (Eastern Walworth/western Racine Counties, Trump+30) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Republican incumbent/State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos has been a fixture in Wisconsin politics since he was first elected to this deeply Republican district in 2004. He became State Assembly Speaker in 2010 and immediately went to work (alongside Republican Governor Scott Walker) to massively curtail public-sector unions and cut education funding, ushering in an era of Republican control of Wisconsin. He’s still been a menace lately (albeit curtailed under Democratic Governor Tony Evers), namely his actions involving holding a primary in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. He has managed to infuriate the right-wing now though too, namely because he didn’t go far enough to overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential election. He only held on to his seat by 200 votes against a Trump-backed opponent in 2022 and nearly faced a recall in 2024. Now, he’s retiring (perhaps sensing that he wouldn’t be the Assembly Speaker after November), leading to both parties having primaries to replace him. Starting with the Republicans, who have two candidates running: Walworth County Supervisor Rick Stacey and Union Grove Village President Steve Wicklund.

Stacey is a standard Republican, promising to keep taxes low, improve local infrastructure, and support farmers. He’s backed by several local elected officials (all from Walworth County). Wicklund is running on a similar platform, wanting to cut property taxes, support school choice, and support law enforcement. He’s backed by State Senator Van Wanggaard (who represents this area in the State Senate) and several state legislators/local elected officials. Wicklund has a wide financial advantage over Stacey. I think Wicklund wins this one thanks to better financial/institutional support.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: teacher Rick Bailey and businesswoman Maria Elena Bisabarros. Bailey is a liberal, wanting to cut costs, expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), and defend the immigrant community. Bisabarros is a standard Democrat, promising to end school voucher programs, support farmers, and stop data centers. Bailey has a slight financial advantage over Bisabarros. Pure toss-up here, but I’ll go with Bailey to win.

AD-37 (Northern Dodge/southern Fond du Lac Counties, Trump+29) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mark Born is trying to fend off a primary challenge from community activist Steve Rydzewski in this deeply Republican district. Born is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, defend “election integrity,” and get people off of welfare. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials, the NRA, the Wisconsin Farm Bureau, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Rydzewski’s website starts off by calling him a “serious candidate,” because people didn’t think he was? Anyway, he’s mostly running against data centers, supporting farmers, and wanting to regulate AI. Born has a wide financial advantage over Rydzewski. Born already beat Rydzewski 69-31 in 2024, so he’ll probably win by a similar margin this year (though Rydzewski might get more votes thanks to his anti-data center platform).

AD-50 (Green/southern Dane Counties, Harris+14.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Jenna Jacobson running for State Senate, three Democrats are running to replace her in this solidly Democratic district: nurse Bryna Caves, progressive activist Josh Mittness, and school board president Bill Oemichen.

Caves is a liberal, wanting to end the school voucher program, build more affordable housing, and expand Medicaid. Mittness is a progressive, wanting to raise taxes on the rich, enact a single-payer healthcare system, and protect workers’ rights. He’s backed by former US Senator Russ Feingold, State Representative Clancy, several local elected officials, and the Working Families Party. Oemichen is a standard Democrat, promising to expand funding for public education, expand access to affordable housing, and support farmers. He’s backed by Madison-area Representatives Mike Bare & Clinton Anderson. Oemichen and Mittness are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Caves lagging further behind. Pure toss-up here between Oemichen & Mittness, but I think Mittness’s progressive bonafides will pay off for him on a night where progressives are expected to do pretty well.

AD-56 (Western Outagamie/eastern Waupaca Counties, Trump+27.5) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: former Hortonville Village Board member Grace Abitz and union official Shawna Riley. Abitz is a liberal, promising to phase out school vouchers, expand access to affordable childcare, and expand Medicaid. She’s backed by the Wisconsin Education Association Council. Riley is also a liberal, wanting to protect access to rural healthcare, end private school vouchers, and protect the environment. Abitz has a solid financial advantage over Riley, which should be enough to get the win over Riley tonight.

AD-57 (Waushara County area, Trump+35) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Kevin David Petersen retiring, four Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Waushara County Supervisor Ed Delgado, former Wisconsin Farm Bureau President Kevin Krentz, businessman William Lorge, and businessman Dylan Testin.

Delgado is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, improve government transparency, and support “individual freedom.” Krentz is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, support law enforcement, and stop the “woke agenda.” He’s backed by the Wisconsin Farm Bureau. Lorge is mostly running on his record of “experienced leadership.” Testin is mostly running as an outsider, promising to stand up to lobbyists and corporate PACs. Krentz has a huge financial advantage over his opponents, who are all scrounging it out for second place (with none raising five figures). Krentz should be the favorite here.

AD-58 (Central Washington County, Trump+37) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running to replace retiring Republican incumbent Rick Gundrum in this deeply Republican district: Washington County Supervisor Christopher Bossert and landscaper Bernie Newman.

Bossert is a conservative, focusing on cutting government spending, opposing abortion, and defending “election integrity.” He also wants to oppose any additional funding for railroad expansion (including Amtrak) so he can go *REDACTED FOR STANDARDS AND PRACTICES*. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Gundrum, Washington County Sheriff Marty Schulteis, several local elected officials, and the anti-abortion Wisconsin Right to Life group. Newman is an outsider, wanting to improve government transparency, support “fiscal responsibility,” and support hunters. Bossert has a slight financial advantage over Newman. I think Bossert wins thanks to his institutional support, but if he loses then passenger rail wins, so you know where I stand on this.

AD-61 (Greenfield area, Harris+2) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Three Democrats are running for the party nod to challenge Republican incumbent Bob Donovan in this ultra-competitive district: pharmacist Brian Bock, US Air Force veteran Ben Brist, and businesswoman Lawanda Chambers.

Bock is a standard Democrat, promising to expand Medicaid, expand funding for public education, and defend workers’ rights. Brist is running on a similar platform, promising to cut costs, expand access to healthcare, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by VoteVets and the Wisconsin Education Association Council. Chambers is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public safety, expand access to mental healthcare, and protect renters. She’s backed by several Milwaukee-area state legislators. Brist has a slight financial advantage over Chambers, with Bock lagging far behind both candidates. I think Brist narrowly pulls this one off, but I could definitely see Chambers winning.

AD-74 (Washburn County to Iron County, Trump+22) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Chanz Green is facing a primary challenge from US Army veteran Scott Harbridge in this deeply Republican district. Green is mostly running on his conservative voting record, touting his efforts to cut taxes, revitalize the forestry industry, and defend “election integrity.” He’s backed by the Wisconsin Farm Bureau. Harbridge is running to his right, promising to “return America to God and restore our moral foundation,” oppose abortion, and support law enforcement. He’s backed by a few figures in the grassroots of the Wisconsin GOP. Green has a wide financial advantage over Harbridge. Green beat Harbridge by a 56.5-43.5 margin in 2024, so we’ll probably see something like that again tonight. Advantage to the incumbent Green.

AD-76 (East-central Madison, Harris+81) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Francesca Hong running for Governor, five Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: political aide Isaia Ben-Ami, former Madison Alderwoman Juliana Bennett, community activist Tony Castañeda, Madison Alderwoman Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford, and journalist Zoe Sullivan.

Ben-Ami is a progressive, wanting to build more affordable housing, fight for universal healthcare, and expand public transit. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials. Bennett is a democratic socialist, wanting to raise taxes on the rich, end school vouchers, and raise the minimum wage to $23/hour. She’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials, Run For Something, the Democratic Socialists of America (whose Madison branch’s logo is literally a badger with a rose in its mouth), and the American Federation of Teachers. Castañeda is a liberal, wanting to raise teacher salaries, stop gerrymandering, and fight back against ICE. Martinez-Rutherford is a progressive, wanting to raise the minimum wage to $20/hour, fight for medicare-for-all, and end the school voucher program. She’s backed by Madison Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions. Sullivan is a democratic socialist, wanting to expand Medicaid, stop data centers, and establish a public bank. Martinez-Rutherford has a solid financial advantage over her opponents, with Bennett beating out Ben-Ami for second place, and Castañeda and Sullivan lagging further behind. This one will really come down to a battle between Martinez-Rutherford (who would be Wisconsin’s first ever openly transgender state legislator) and Bennett. With this district being very DSA-friendly (electing a DSA’er in Hong in 2020), I actually think Bennett narrowly edges out Martinez-Rutherford here.

AD-92 (Menomonie to Chippewa Falls, Trump+7) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this Republican-leaning district: farmer Jeremiah Fredrickson and ghost candidate Mel Marin. Fredrickson, who runs Jeremiah’s Bullfrog Fish Farm, is a standard Democrat. He wants to expand funding for public education, protect local natural resources, and expand access to affordable healthcare. He’s backed by Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer and several other state legislators. Marin has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. As such, Fredrickson should win this one easily.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back next Tuesday to cover all of the primaries going down in Alaska, Florida, & Wyoming. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Minnesota Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Continuing on this breakneck pace of primaries, we’ve reached another slate of four primary states happening tomorrow. Not as big as last week, but primaries in Connecticut, Vermont, and the crucial swing states of Minnesota & Wisconsin will have BIG November implications. We already covered Connecticut & Vermont yesterday, so now we’re onto the midwest states of Minnesota & Wisconsin, starting right now with Minnesota. So, without further ado, let’s get to it!

SD-05 (Todd County to eastern Becker County, Trump+46) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Paul Utke is trying to fend off a primary challenge from State Representative (and don’t laugh) Mike Wiener in this deeply Republican district.

Utke is a conservative, promising to crack down on crime, defend the 2nd Amendment, and defend “election integrity.” Wiener is a right-winger (the first page on his campaign website is asking voters to sign “articles of impeachment” for Democratic Governor Tim Walz), promising to defend the 2nd Amendment (saying that the government can take his guns from his cold dead hands), eliminate “CRT & equity audits” from schools, and stop “big tech censorship.” He’s backed by the Minnesota Republican Party. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, but Wiener has outpaced Utke in spending. With the establishment lining up behind Wiener, I think Representative Wiener wins here and unseats Utke.

SD-10 (Morrison/Mille Lacs Counties area, Trump+49) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Nathan Wesenburg is facing a primary challenge from businesswoman Deb Holthaus in this deeply Republican district.

Wesenberg is a conservative, focusing on opposing abortion, defending the 2nd Amendment, and enacting term limits. He’s backed by the Minnesota Republican Party, several of his colleagues in the legislature, the NRA, the anti-abortion Minnesota Right to Life group, and, for some strange reason, Democratic State Senator John Hoffman. Yeah, Hoffman (who you may know as a survivor of the brutal political assassination attempts that killed Melissa Hortman last year) endorsed Wesenberg for the primary election, saying this:

(The world’s only Peggy Flanagan/Nate Wesenberg endorser)

Holthaus is also a conservative, wanting to expand “parental involvement” in education, oppose abortion, and defend the 2nd Amendment. The two are neck-and-neck in the financial race. Ultimately, I think Wesenberg’s incumbency/institutional support gets him the win, but Holthaus is definitely giving him a run for his money.

SD-13 (Eastern Stearns County area, Trump+34) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running to replace retiring Republican incumbent Jeff Howe in this deeply Republican district: conservative activist Aaron Brutger and Benton County Commissioner Jared Gapinski.

Brutger is a right-winger, promising to end government-funded social programs, eliminate the state income tax, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by the Minnesota Republican Party. He also has a bit of a criminal past. Back in 2009, he was arrested after his then-fiancee told the police that he had slammed a car door on her legs and strangled her until she lost consciousness. Brutger was charged with domestic assault, but reached a plea agreement that ultimately saw him plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge of disorderly conduct. He was given a suspended prison sentence of 90 days (that would be struck if he remained clean from the law for a year), a $50 fine, and an order to receive counseling. Despite that (and Democrats pouncing on the issue), the Republicans who endorsed him have remained mum since the story broke in May. But his issues have led local Republicans to start to coalesce behind another candidate, Benton County Commissioner Gapinski. Gapinski is a conservative, promising to “stand up to the Radical Left,” stop “out-of-control spending,” and support law enforcement. He’s backed by outgoing Senator Howe, several local Mayors, the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce, and the Minnesota Police/Firefighters unions. Gapinski also has a wide financial advantage over Brutger. Despite the Party endorsement, Gapinski should win this one thanks to better institutional/financial support and no criminal past (that we know of).

SD-19 (Owatonna/Faribault area, Trump+25) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republican primary, where Republican incumbent John Jasinski is facing off against conservative activist Crystal Alan. Jasinski is mostly running on his legislative record, touting his efforts to expand funding for a local highway, secure community investments, and protect senior services. Alan is a right-winger, promising to “abolish” abortion, defend “medical freedom” (but not gender-affirming care, that’s special and cannot be classified under medical freedom according to Alan), and defend the 2nd Amendment. She’s raised no money for her campaign, so Jasinski should win this one.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: Faribault City Councilman Adama Youhn Doumbouya and HR manager Sam Powell. Doumbouya (who was Faribault’s first Black City Councillor) doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Powell is a progressive, supporting universal healthcare, promising to defend civil rights, and wanting to protect reproductive freedom. Powell is the only candidate to raise money/actively campaign here, so I guess Powell wins.

SD-20 (Red Wing to eastern Olmsted County, Trump+21) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Steve Drazkowski retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: State Representative Steven Jacob and farmer Teddy Kimble.

Jacob is mostly running on his legislative record, touting his efforts to protect farmers, create a new wastewater management system for the district, and keep the size of the government small. He’s backed the Minnesota Republican Party. Kimble is running a very “agrarian” campaign, focusing on cutting costs for farmers, crack down on fraud, and stop data centers. That last one is important, because that’s been the biggest issue Kimble’s been hammering Jacob about. Despite that, Jacob has a huge financial advantage and should be considered the favorite here thanks to his status as State Representative (already representing half of the district in the House).

SD-23 (Mower/Freeborn Counties area, Trump+20) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this solidly Republican district: teacher Angie Hanson and perennial candidate Jennifer Ney. Hanson is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting healthcare costs, expanding funding for public education, and expanding economic development. She’s backed by the Minnesota DFL and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Ney (who ran for President in 2024) has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. As such, Hanson should win this one easily.

SD-29 (Western Wright County, Trump+32) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: attorney Dan Fiskum and mechanic/2025 special election nominee Louis McNutt. Fiskum (who calls himself “The Data Center Slayer”) is a standard Democrat, promising to stop data centers, enact “responsible budgeting,” and expand access to healthcare. He’s really leaning into the whole anti-data center campaign, look at his campaign logo!

Anyway, McNutt is also a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting taxes for working families, standing up to insurance/pharmaceutical companies, and stopping data centers. He’s backed by the Minnesota DFL, Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy, and several unions. Fiskum has outpaced McNutt in fundraising, but McNutt has the slight advantage in spending. Combine that with McNutt’s institutional support and name recognition from the 2025 special election, I think McNutt wins tonight.

SD-37 (Maple Grove/northwestern Hennepin County, Harris+8) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Warren Limmer retiring, this suburban district is the perfect pickup opportunity for the Democrats. They’ll have to pick their nominee first tonight though, choosing between security officer Austin Channen and Maple Grove City Councilwoman Kristy Janigo. Chanen is a liberal, promising to defend workers’ rights, cut healthcare costs, and expand funding for public education. Janigo is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, expand funding for public education, and crack down on fraud. She’s backed by US Senator Tina Smith, the Minnesota DFL, several state legislators/local elected officials, VoteVets, and several unions. Channen has raised no money for his campaign and Janigo already seems to be in the general election mindset, so Janigo is the heavy favorite to win.

SD-38 (Brooklyn Center/western Brooklyn Park, Harris+39) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Susan Pha is facing a primary challenge from nonprofit director Nehemiah Garley in this deeply Democratic district. Pha is a liberal, promising to improve community safety, expand access to affordable healthcare, and build more affordable housing. She’s backed by a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Garley is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public safety, expand youth development programs, and cut costs. He’s raised no money for his campaign, so Pha should win this one.

SD-44 (Maplewood/Oakdale area, Harris+20) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Tou Xiong retiring, two Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: former Little Canada City Councilwoman Teresa Miller and school board member Sam Rosemark.

Miller is running on a vague platform of fostering “listening and collaboration” and promising to “turn down the temperature.” Rosemark is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand access to affordable healthcare, and improve sustainability. He’s backed by US Senator Smith, the Minnesota DFL, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Sierra Club, and several unions. Miller hasn’t raised any money for her campaign, so Rosemark should win this one relatively easily.

SD-46 (St. Louis Park/Hopkins/northern Edina, Harris+49) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Ron Latz is trying to fend off a primary challenge from former St. Louis Park City Councilwoman Lynette Dumalag in this deeply Democratic district.

Latz is a liberal, promising to stand up to ICE, crack down on gun violence, and protect civil rights. He’s backed by State Attorney General Keith Ellison, Hennepin County Sheriff Dawanna Witt, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Dumalag is a progressive, wanting to enact a single-payer healthcare system, fight for “environmental justice,” and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by both HD-46A & B Representatives (Larry Kraft & Cheryl Youakim), several local elected officials, and the Sierra Club. Latz has a solid fundraising advantage over Dumalag and a huge spending advantage (spending over $121k!). Yeah, Latz is clearly scared of Dumalag and he has good reason to be. I think he holds on and wins thanks to his institutional/union support, but Dumalag has run a very good campaign and given the nearly 20-year incumbent a run for his money. Is it enough to win? I don’t think so, but I definitely wouldn’t count out Dumalag.

SD-50 (Southern Edina/western Bloomington, Harris+35.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Four Democrats are running to replace retiring Democratic incumbent Alice Mann in this deeply Democratic district: journalist Karla Hult, community organizer Amal Ibrahim, school board member Nelly Korman, and Bloomington Human Rights Commissioner John McClellan.

Hult is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, protect women’s and LGBTQ+ rights, and expand access to affordable healthcare. She’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials and a few unions. Ibrahim is running on a similar platform, promising to expand economic development, expand access to affordable healthcare, and expand funding for public education. Korman is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, defend civil rights, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by State Attorney General Ellison and several state legislators/local elected officials. McClellan wants to expand access to mental healthcare, improve public safety, and fight for social justice. Hult has a wide financial advantage over her two opponents, with Korman being the only other Democrat to raise five figures. Hult is the favorite to win here, but Korman has an outside chance.

SD-56 (Apple Valley/Rosemount, Harris+18) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running in this solidly Democratic district: teacher Julida Alter and truck driver Raymond Petersen. Alter is a standard Republican, promising to protect “constitutional freedoms,” cut “bureaucracy” in schools, and cut property taxes. Petersen is a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose socialism, and crack down on crime. He hasn’t raised any money for his campaign though, so Alter is the favorite just based on that.

SD-62 (Central Minneapolis, Harris+76) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Less than a year after nearly unseating Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, Democratic incumbent Omar Fateh is running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district. He faces two opponents in the primary first though: nonprofit director Jeanelle Austin and businesswoman Brenda Short.

Fateh is a progressive, wanting to enact universal childcare, fight for universal healthcare, and raise taxes on the rich. He’s backed by MN-05 Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, State Attorney General Ellison, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Minnesota DFL, the Democratic Socialists of America, the Sierra Club, Our Revolution, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Austin is a standard Democrat, wanting to crack down on gun violence, improve public health, and expand economic development. Short is also a standard Democrat, promising to improve public safety, support small businesses, and build more affordable housing. Her campaign social media pages are full of AI slop, so that should tell you how seriously she’s taking this campaign. Fateh has a solid financial advantage, but Austin has actually outpaced him in spending. Despite that, Fateh should win this one relatively easily. Despite losing the Mayor’s race by six points, Fateh still won his home area, so he’s still popular and has the advantage of the moderate vote being split between Austin & Short.

SD-65 (Central St. Paul, Harris+54) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With longtime Democratic incumbent Sandy Pappas retiring, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: community activist Natasha Bennett and West St. Paul City Councilwoman Robyn Gulley.

Bennett is really stressing that she’s a “grassroots” candidate, wanting to build more affordable housing, fight for single-payer healthcare, and enact universal childcare. Gulley is a liberal, promising to defend reproductive rights, defend workers’ rights, and stand up to ICE. She’s backed by outgoing Senator Pappas, US Senator Smith, State Attorney General Ellison, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, VoteVets, and several unions. Bennett hasn’t raised any money for her campaign, so Gulley should win this one easily.

HD-4A (Moorhead, Harris+15) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Jennifer Keeler in this solidly Democratic district: Moorhead Mayor Shelly Carlson and nurse practitioner Erika Yoney.

Carlson is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand affordable housing, improve public safety, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by MN-02 Congresswoman/US Senate candidate Angie Craig, former MN-07 Congressman Collin Peterson, and several local elected officials. Yoney is running slightly to the left of Carlson, wanting to expand access to affordable healthcare, expand funding for public education, and cut costs. She’s backed by the Minnesota DFL, outgoing Representative Keeler, several local elected officials, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising. This one’s a pure toss-up, with Carlson’s name recognition battling it out with Yoney’s institutional support. In the end, I think Yoney narrowly pulls off the win.

HD-6B (Western Crow Wing County, Trump+28) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Josh Heintzeman is facing a rematch from the 2024 primary in this deeply Republican district as he’s facing Matthew Zinda again. Heintzeman doesn’t really have much of a campaign platform, but he’s been a reliably conservative vote in the legislature. Zinda’s campaign Facebook page is mostly just him getting involved in legal drama over a supposed “free speech violation.” Heintzeman beat Zinda 91-9 in 2024 and will probably win by a similar margin tonight.

HD-9B (Eastern Otter Tail County, Trump+40) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Tom Murphy is facing a challenge from ghost candidate Craig Horlocker in the primary for this deeply Republican district. Murphy doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s been a reliably conservative vote in the legislature. Horlocker has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Murphy will win this one in a landslide.

HD-10A (Northern Morrison County to southern Aitkin County, Trump+41) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Ron Kresha retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: US Army veteran Brian Lindquist and businessman Mark Striemer.

Lindquist is a conservative, promising to support law enforcement, oppose abortion, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s running on a slate with SD-10 candidate Deb Holthaus and enjoys the backing of the Minnesota State Police union. Striemer is a right-winger, promising to crack down on fraud, end “forced health education standards that are immoral and an affront to Christianity,” and block the “Globalist agenda.” He’s backed by the Minnesota Republican Party and the Minnesota Right to Life group. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, but Lindquist has a solid spending advantage. Despite that, I think Striemer wins thanks to his establishment support. He’s already on his campaign page complaining about “Agenda 21,” so he’s probably going to be one of the most far-right State Representatives come next year.

HD-14A (Southern St. Cloud area, Trump+6.5) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Bernie Perryman running for State Senate, both parties have contested primaries to replace her in this Republican-leaning district. Starting with the Republicans, who have two candidates running: St. Cloud City Council President Mike Conway and pastor John Jose.

Conway is a standard Republican, promising to support law enforcement, crack down on fraud, and support small businesses. Jose is a conservative, wanting to crack down on fraud, defend the 2nd Amendment, and defend “election integrity.” He’s backed by the Minnesota Republican Party and the NRA. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in the financial race. Much like HD-4A, this one’s going to come down to name recognition vs institutional support. I think the institutional support wins out once again and Jose narrowly edges out Conway.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: businessman/2024 nominee Abdi Daisane and college professor Paul Schumacher. Daisane is a progressive, supporting a single-payer healthcare system, promising to fight for “climate justice,” and wanting to expand access to affordable housing. He’s backed by the Minnesota DFL. Schumacher is a liberal, wanting to raise wages, raise teacher salaries, and expand “accountability” for police officers. He’s raised no money for his campaign and Daisane has name recognition from 2024, so Daisane is the favorite here.

HD-15B (Brown/Redwood Counties, Trump+38) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: teacher Keith Klawitter and Lamberton Mayor Lydell Sik. Klawitter is a standard Democrat, promising to protect farmers, cut costs, and protect access to rural healthcare. He’s backed by the Minnesota DFL. Sik is mostly running on his service to the community as Mayor, but he’s also backed by Minnesota’s biggest teacher’s union, Education Minnesota. Klawitter has a solid financial advantage over Sik. With the party behind him, I think Klawitter wins here.

HD-17A (McLeod County area, Trump+39) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

In another 2024 rematch, Republican incumbent Dawn Gillman is facing a challenge from Wayne Olson. Gillman’s mostly running on her record of service as State Representative and some vaguely conservative talking points. Olson has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Gillman beat Olson 84-16 in 2024, so I wouldn’t expect anything different tonight.

HD-20B (Eastern Olmsted County area, Trump+30.5) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Steve Jacob running for State Senate, both parties have contested primaries to replace him in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republicans, who have two candidates: nurse Sara Bertschinger and businessman Brady Rouhoff.

Bertschinger is a conservative, touting her support for the 2nd Amendment, opposition to abortion, and her efforts to protest for conservative values. She’s backed by the Minnesota Republican Party and outgoing Representative Jacob. Rouhoff is a conservative, wanting to cut property taxes, defend “election integrity,” and support law enforcement. Bertschinger has a huge financial advantage over Rouhoff. Combine that with institutional support, I think Bertschinger wins here.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: Winona County Planning & Zoning Board Member Steve Holm and farmer Mark Thoreson. Holm is a standard Democrat, wanting to protect natural resources, support small businesses, and support farmers. He’s backed by the Minnesota DFL. Thoreson has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. As such, I’ll give the advantage to Holm here.

HD-23A (Freeborn County area, Trump+27) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: businessman Colin “Coke” Minehart and community activist Joe Staloch. Minehart is a liberal, wanting to protect the rural economy, expand access to affordable healthcare, and protect the environment. Staloch is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to healthcare, cut costs, and defend workers’ rights. He’s backed by the Minnesota DFL and a few unions. With the establishment lined up behind him, I think Staloch wins this one.

HD-29B (Central Wright County, Trump+28) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: actor Marcus Claxton and US Marine Corps veteran/2024 nominee Colton Kratky. Claxton is a standard Democrat, wanting to raise nurse/teacher salaries, expand access to mental healthcare, and expand funding for public education. Kratky is also a standard Democrat, promising to improve gun safety, defend reproductive rights, and expand mass transit. Kratky has a solid financial advantage over Claxton and has name recognition from 2024, so he should win here.

HD-38A (Western Brooklyn Park, Harris+34) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries in this deeply Democratic district. Starting with the Democratic primary, where incumbent Huldah Hiltsley is facing two opponents: businessman Wynfred Russell and ghost candidate Richard Klatte. Hiltsley is a progressive, promising to fight for single-payer healthcare, improve public safety, and expand access to early childhood education. She’s backed by Attorney General Ellison, several state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Russell is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, expand funding for public education, and improve public safety. Klatte has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Russell also hasn’t raised any money, so Hiltsley should be fine.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: HVAC professional Charlie Kistler and businesswoman Yelena Kurdyumova. Kistler is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, crack down on fraud, and support law enforcement. He’s backed by the Minnesota Republican Party. Kurdyumova is a moderate, wanting to build more housing, expand access to childcare, and improve public safety. She hasn’t raised any money for her campaign, so Kistler’s party-backing should get him the win.

HD-39B (Columbia Heights area, Harris+42) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running to replace retiring Democratic incumbent Sandra Feist in this deeply Democratic district: Columbia Heights Mayor Amada Marquez Simula and Columbia Heights City Councilman Justice Spriggs.

Simula is a progressive, promising to fight for universal/single-payer healthcare, expand affordable housing, and fight for “environmental justice.” She’s backed by the Minnesota DFL, outgoing Representative Feist, MN-05 Congresswoman Omar, Lieutenant Governor/US Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan, several state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions. Spriggs is also a progressive, supporting a single-payer healthcare system, wanting to raise wages to “livable wages,” and promising to have Minnesota at 100% clean energy by 2040. He’s backed by the SEIU and Run For Something. Both candidates are pretty close in fundraising, but Simula has the slight edge. I’ll give the edge to Simula here based on her better institutional support, because there’s not a ton of daylight between these two policy-wise.

HD-40A (Northern Ramsey County, Harris+27) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Kelly Moller retiring, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: attorney Aisha Elmquist and ghost candidate Murwo Mohamed. Elmquist is a liberal, promising to expand consumer protections, defend workers’ rights, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by the Minnesota DFL, outgoing Representative Moller, MN-04 Congresswoman Betty McCollum, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Mohamed has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. As such, Elmquist should win this one easily.

HD-54B (Central Scott County, Trump+12) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Ben Bakeberg running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: nurse Natalie Barnes and police officer Chris Steward.

Barnes is a conservative, focusing on defending “election integrity,” cracking down on fraud, and supporting law enforcement. She’s backed by the Minnesota Republican Party, outgoing Representative Bakeberg, SD-54 State Senator/MN-02 candidate Eric Pratt, and the Minnesota State Firefighters union. Steward is also a conservative, promising to crack down on crime, stop “DEI & CRT-based curriculums,” and defend “election integrity.” Barnes has a wide financial advantage over Steward, but Steward has a solid spending advantage over her. Despite that, I think Barnes’s strong institutional support carries her over the finish line to a win.

HD-55B (Central Burnsville, Harris+21) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Kaela Berg running for MN-02, four Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: former State Representative Hunter Cantrell, Minnesota Department of Labor official Kriystauhl Fitchett, businessman Yusuf Haji, and engineer Adam Silkey.

Cantrell is a progressive, promising to fight for universal healthcare, strengthen Minnesota’s antitrust laws, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by Attorney General Ellison, MN-05 Congresswoman Omar, several state legislators, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Fitchett is also a progressive, wanting to raise the minimum wage to $25/hour, fight for “environmental justice,” and fight for single-payer healthcare. Haji is a standard Democrat, promising to crack down on gun violence, cut costs, and expand funding for public education. Silkey calls himself a progressive, promising to stand up to ICE, expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), and expand funding for public education. Cantrell has a wide financial lead over all three of his opponents and has such great institutional support that I think he wins this one relatively easily.

HD-60B (Eastern Minneapolis, Harris+66) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Mohamud Noor is facing a primary challenge from businessman Abdurrahman Mahmud in this deeply Democratic district. Noor is a liberal, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, expand funding for public education, and defend immigrant/civil rights. He’s backed by the Minnesota DFL, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Mahmud has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Noor should win this one easily.

HD-65B (Downtown St. Paul, Harris+54) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Maria Isa Perez-Vega running for Ramsey County Commissioner, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: attorney Sebastian Ellefson and ghost candidate Elena Mena. Ellefson is a liberal, wanting to build more affordable housing, strengthen workers’ rights, and ban assault weapons. He’s backed by the Minnesota DFL, outgoing Representative Perez-Vega, several local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Mena has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. As such, Ellefson is the heavy favorite here.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back in a bit to cover all of tonight’s state legislative primaries in Wisconsin. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Connecticut Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Continuing on this breakneck pace of primaries, we’ve reached another slate of four primary states happening tomorrow. Not as big as last week, but primaries in Connecticut, Vermont, and the crucial swing states of Minnesota & Wisconsin will have BIG November implications. We’re starting our look at those four state primaries today with Connecticut & Vermont. We already covered Vermont, so now we’re onto Connecticut! Let’s get to it!

SD-02 (Windsor/Bloomfield/northern Hartford, Harris+65.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Douglas McCrory is facing two opponents in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: State Representative Maryam Khan and Windsor Board of Education Vice President Ayana Taylor.

McCrory is a standard Democrat, touting his efforts in the Senate to expand funding for public education, protect senior services, and expand access to childcare. You might be wondering why he’s facing such a high-profile primary. Well…

(CT Mirror)

That probably explains why the Connecticut Democratic Party endorsement went to Khan. Khan is a progressive, promising to stand up to utility companies, cut healthcare costs, and expand youth programs. Not only is she backed by the Connecticut Democrats, she’s also backed by the Working Families Party, the Democratic Socialists of America, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). That leaves Taylor as the odd woman out here. She’s a liberal, wanting to build more housing, improve government transparency, and defend reproductive freedom. With McCrory’s legal issues and Khan’s amazing combo of union support, progressive support, and establishment support, I think Khan wins this one.

SD-13 (Meriden area, Harris+15) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Jan Hochadel retiring, two Democrats are running to replace her in this solidly Democratic district: State Representative Jack Fazzino and Cheshire Town Councilman Jim Jinks.

Fazzino is a liberal, mostly running on his record in the State House of securing funding for his district, expanding funding for public education, and holding utility companies accountable. He’s backed by State Attorney General William Tong, State Treasurer Erick Russell, State Comptroller Sean Scanlon, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Connecticut Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Jinks is also a liberal, promising to cut costs, advance “progressive ideas” on education and sustainability, and defend civil rights. He’s backed by several local elected officials (all from Jinks’ home of Cheshire). Fazzino should win this one thanks to his name recognition from representing part of the district in the House and strong institutional support. Jinks should win Cheshire though (he better given the amount of institutional support he has there).

SD-19 (Marlborough to Ledyard, Harris+6) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running for the party nod to challenge Democratic incumbent Cathy Osten in this Democratic-leaning district: former State Representative Mike France and businessman Jason Guidone. France (who was the Republican nominee for CT-02 in 2022 & 2024) is a standard Republican, wanting to cut costs, restore “fiscal responsibility,” and crack down on crime. Guidone is running on a similar platform, wanting to cut taxes, crack down on crime, and expand “parental involvement” in education. With France’s name recognition from his previous two runs for Congress (and his eight years in the State House), I think he wins here.

HD-04 (South-central Hartford, Harris+61) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Julio Concepcion is facing a primary challenge from chef Venice Sotomayor in this deeply Democratic district. Concepcion has no campaign presence online, but he’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. Sotomayor has no campaign platform, but she’s backed by CT-01 Congressman John Larson for entirely petty reasons. It’s because Concepcion endorsed Larson’s primary opponent (Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin). Despite the pettiest endorsement of the year against him, Concepcion is the heavy favorite to win.

HD-10 (Southern East Hartford, Harris+38) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Henry Genga retiring, two Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: East Hartford Director of Human Resources Tyron Harris and East Hartford Town Councilwoman Angie Parkinson.

Harris is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut taxes for the middle class, expand funding for public education, and cut costs. He’s backed by East Hartford Mayor Connor Martin. Parkinson is a progressive, wanting to strengthen tenant protections, fight for a public option (while calling healthcare a human right), and defend workers’ rights. She’s backed by the Connecticut Democratic Party and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). With Parkinson’s status as a local elected official and union support behind her, I think Parkinson wins here. I’m not counting out Harris though, as he could ride Mayor Martin’s endorsement to victory.

HD-31 (Western Glastonbury, Harris+25) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Jill Barry was one of the more conservative Democrats in the caucus, which left her vulnerable to a primary challenge from the left in this deeply Democratic district. Did you notice I was using the past tense there? That’s because Barry lost at the nominating convention back in late May to teacher Moise Carleus! Instead of gathering signatures to run in the primary, Barry took her ball and went home, now threatening to run as an Independent in November and endorsing Republican State Senator Ryan Fazio for Governor. Carleus isn’t getting a free ride to November though, as he’s facing Glastonbury Town Councilman Anthony DiLizia in tomorrow’s primary.

Carelus is a liberal, promising to expand funding for public education, hold utility companies accountable, and cut property taxes. He’s backed by the Connecticut Democratic Party, the Working Families Party and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). DiLizia is a standard Democrat, promising to stand up to the Trump Administration, cut costs, and protect senior services. He’s backed by several local elected officials and VoteVets. I’ll give the edge to Carelus here, mostly thanks to his strong progressive/union support, but DiLizia probably does have higher name recognition than he does and has local support, so I’m not counting him out.

HD-50 (Woodstock to Hampton, Harris+2) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

This is probably the messiest Republican primary in the state by a country mile. It’s all because of one man, conservative activist Jadon MacCormack. MacCormack waltzed into the party endorsement by default, but then party leaders realized how insane he actually is. Don’t believe me? Take a look:

(CT Mirror)

Yeah, Republicans realized they nominated a Groyper for a (in-theory) competitive district and immediately scrambled to find someone else. They found someone else in businessman Anthony Emilio. Outside of homophobia, MacCormack wants to cut taxes, expand “parental rights” in education, and improve local infrastructure. It’s actually wild how different his Twitter account and website are. Like, his website is a bog-standard Republican candidate website and his Twitter account is rivaling Anita Bryant in homophobia levels. Emilio doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence online. Let’s be honest here, he’s only here to give Republicans another option outside of the guy who probably has the most racist burner account on Election Twitter. Will it pay off? I think so. I think Republican voters here are quite frankly embarrassed with the whole situation and will vote for Emilio over MacCormack. Of course, I could be underestimating Republican levels of shame or knowledge of the situation and MacCormack wins thanks to being the first candidate on the ballot. Very real scenario, but I think Emilio wins.

HD-71 (Middlebury/southern Waterbury, Trump+9) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent William Pizzuto is trying to fend off a primary challenge from Waterbury Alderman Mike Grosso in this solidly Republican district.

Pizzuto is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, cut costs, and support law enforcement. He’s backed by the NRA. Grosso is a conservative, promising to defend “election integrity,” cut taxes, and stop “fraud, waste, and abuse.” He’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Pizzuto’s incumbency should get him the win here, but I’m interested to see how Grosso does given that he’s both an elected official and backed by the grassroots.

HD-92 (Western New Haven, Harris+71) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Patricia Dillon has two opponents in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district: former Hamden Legislative Councilman Justin Farmer and former New Haven Alderman Eli Sabin.

Dillon (who has represented this district since 1984) is mostly running on her legislative record and years of experience representing western New Haven. She’s backed by the New Haven Democratic Party, several of her fellow State Representatives, the Sierra Club, Planned Parenthood, and a few unions. Farmer is a democratic socialist, wanting to massively expand renewable energy production, fight for universal healthcare, and expand tenant protections. Sabin is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, defend workers’ rights, and build more affordable housing. He’s backed by New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker. This one’s going to be close, but I think Dillon ultimately wins thanks to the left-wing/anti-Dillon vote splitting between Sabin & Farmer. I can definitely see Sabin winning (getting the Mayor of New Haven behind him is big), but for now I think Dillon holds on.

HD-97 (Eastern New Haven, Harris+37) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Alphonse Paolillo retiring, two Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: nonprofit director Wildaliz Bermudez and New Haven Alderman Leland Moore.

Bermudez is a liberal, wanting to cut property taxes, cut costs, and stand up to utility companies. Moore is a progressive, promising to expand affordable housing, make sure Yale University (and other wealthy institutions) pay their fair share in taxes, and defend workers’ rights. He’s backed by the New Haven Democratic Party, outgoing Representative Paolillo, Attorney General Tong, a bunch of New Haven Alders, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Moore should win this one thanks to his strong institutional support.

HD-118 (Southern Milford, Harris+9.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running to replace retiring Democratic incumbent Frank Smith in this Democratic-leaning district: Milford Alderwoman Toni Lombardi and Milford Public Works Director Chris Saley.

Lombardi is a liberal, focusing on expanding funding for public education, cutting coasts, and improving coastal climate resiliency. She’s backed by the Milford Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Saley is a standard Democrat, promising to fight for universal pre-K, cut red tape for small businesses, and expand economic development. Lombardi’s institutional support should get her the win here.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back tomorrow to cover all of the state legislative primaries in Minnesota & Wisconsin. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Vermont Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Continuing on this breakneck pace of primaries, we’ve reached another slate of four primary states happening tomorrow. Not as big as last week, but primaries in Connecticut, Vermont, and the crucial swing states of Minnesota & Wisconsin will have BIG November implications. We’re starting our look at those four state primaries today with Connecticut & Vermont. Let’s go with the smaller of those two states first, Vermont! So, without further ado, let’s get to it!

SD-Addison (Addison County, Harris+36) (2 Elected) (1-1 D/R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Steven Heffernan was one of many surprise Vermont Republican winners in 2024. This was almost entirely because of Republican Governor Phil Scott, who used his immense popularity to break the Democratic supermajorities in Montpelier. Heffernan’s trying to keep his job (easier said than done with Scott’s approval ratings falling), but he’s also trying to get a second Republican elected here. Two Republicans are joining him in tomorrow’s primary to accomplish that goal: firefighter Andrew Klein and Orwall Town Selectboard Chairwoman Andrea Treadway. Heffernan is a moderate, touting his efforts in the legislature to cut property taxes, protect rural Vermonters, and build more affordable housing. He’s mostly been under fire lately for asking (during a debate on an animal abuse bill) if people who “identify their gender as animals” could abuse animals legally. He apologised, but damn that was not good. Klein is also a moderate, wanting to expand economic development, build more housing, and cut property taxes. Treadway is a moderate, wanting to cut costs, protect rural Vermonters, and cut healthcare costs. Heffernan has a spot locked down (thanks to his incumbency) and should be joined by Treadway thanks to her status as a local elected official.

SD-Bennington (Bennington County, Harris+23) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbents Seth Bongartz and Robert Plunkett are running for re-election, but they’re being challenged by college professor Amy Moore in the primary. Bongartz & Plunkett are liberals, both wanting to expand economic development, protect the environment, and improve local education. Moore is mostly focused on giving rural and working class Vermonters a voice. The incumbents are the favorites to win.

SD-Chittenden Central (Northern Burlington area, Harris+60) (3 Elected) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbents Martine Gulick and Tanya Vyhovsky are running for re-election, but fellow Democratic incumbent/State Senate President pro tempore Philip Baruth is not. That has led to two Democrats joining the incumbents in the primary: sociologist Nikhil Goyal and Essex Junction City Councilwoman Elaine Haney.

Gulick is a progressive, touting her efforts to fight climate change, fight for criminal justice reform, and cut prescription drug costs. She’s backed by the Sierra Club and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and Vermont’s biggest teachers union, the Vermont National Education Association). Vyhovsky (who is also running under the Progressive Party banner) is a progressive, promising to defend civil rights, enact a progressive tax system, and raise the minimum wage to a “living wage.” She’s backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and the Vermont National Education Association). Goyal is a progressive, wanting to enact a single-payer healthcare system, build more affordable housing, and abolish & prosecute ICE. He’s backed by former Lieutenant Governor Doug Racine, several State Representatives, and both Ben Cohen & Jerry Greenfield (Ben & Jerry, the guys behind the ice cream). Haney is a standard Democrat, wanting to build more housing, improve local education, and cut healthcare costs. She’s backed by State Attorney General Charity Clark, former Governor Madeleine Kunin and a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials. Gulick & Vyhovsky should have the top two spots locked down, with Haney narrowly edging out Goyal for the third spot. I think her institutional support is just too much for Goyal to overcome, but she is probably too moderate for the district. If the voters agree, then I could definitely see Goyal winning, but for now I think Haney gets the third spot.

SD-Chittenden Southeast (Southern Chittenden County, Harris+58) (3 Elected) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbents Thomas Chittenden, Virginia Lyons, and Kesha Ram Hinsdale are all running for re-election, but they’re being challenged in the Democratic primary by community organizer Joanna Grossman and doctor Elizabeth Hunt. Chittenden doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s running on a slate with his fellow incumbents and enjoys the backing of several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Lyons is a similar boat as Chittenden, but somehow has even less of a campaign presence online. Hinsdale (who is also the Majority Leader) is a progressive, wanting to expand tenant rights, fight for civil rights, and fight for a Green New Deal. She’s backed by several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Grossman is a liberal, promising to reverse education funding cuts, build more affordable housing, and cut healthcare costs. She’s backed by Attorney General Clark and Burlington City Council President Ben Traverse. She has faced criticism from the left because Grossman organized a pressure campaign against VT-At Large Congresswoman Becca Balint for voting against a bill to provide aid to Israel. In response, Grossman has accused her critics of antisemitism. Hunt is also a liberal, wanting to expand access to healthcare, cut costs, and expand access to childcare. Despite Grossman’s backing from a few notable figures, I think the three incumbents win re-election here.

SD-Orange (Orange County, Harris+17.5) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are hoping to challenge appointed Republican incumbent John Benson: State Representative Monique Priestly and former Vermont Director of Workforce Development Rose Lucenti. Priestly is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding access to affordable housing, improving climate resiliency, and supporting rural Vermonters. Lucenti is also a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding access to workforce development programs, protecting senior services, and cutting costs. She’s backed by the AFL-CIO. I think Priestly wins here thanks to her name recognition from the State House.

SD-Washington (Washington County, Harris+42) (3 Elected) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbents Ann Cummings, Andrew Perchlik, and Anne Watson are all running for re-election, but they’re being challenged in the Democratic primary by businessman Gabriel Lajeunesse. Cummings has no campaign presence online. Perchlik is a progressive, wanting to expand clean energy production, increase affordable housing, and expand public transit. He’s backed by US Senator Bernie Sanders and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Watson is a progressive, touting her support for a single-payer healthcare system, stopping ICE from wearing masks, and fighting climate change. Lajeunesse is a standard Democrat, wanting to build more housing, cut childcare costs, and cut healthcare costs. The three incumbents should win this one.

SD-Windsor (Windsor County, Harris+36) (3 Elected) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbents Joe Major and Rebecca White are running for re-election, but fellow Democratic incumbent Alison Clarkson is not, leading to four Democrats joining Major & White in the primary: Pomfret Town Selectboard Chairman Benjamin Brickner, State Representative Elizabeth Burrows, former State Representative Heather Chase, and union president Christopher Dube.

Major is a liberal, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, support farmers, and protect the local environment. White doesn’t really have much of a platform, but she’s running on a slate with fellow Senator Major. Brickner is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding funding for public education, and making sure rural Vermonters have proper emergency services. Burrows is a liberal, promising to expand workforce development programs, expand access to healthcare (especially rural healthcare), and defend civil liberties from the federal government. She’s backed by several of her colleagues in the legislature. Chase is also a liberal, focusing on standing up to the Trump Administration, building more housing, and cutting healthcare costs. She’s backed by a few state legislators. Dube is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, expand access to healthcare, and fight for “fiscal integrity.” He’s backed by State Treasurer Beth Pearce and several unions (including the AFL-CIO and the Vermont National Education Association). I think Major & White win thanks to incumbency, but the race for third will be very close. I think it’ll come down to Burrows and Dube, with Dube ultimately getting the win thanks to his union support.

HD-Addison 3 (Northern Addison County, Harris+29) (2 Elected) (1-1 D/R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Matt Birong is not running for re-election (and the Republicans hold the other seat here), leading to three Democrats running in the primary: community organizer Ariel Bolles, former USCIS official Michael Kane, and school board member John Stroup.

Bolles is a progressive, focusing on expanding tenants’ rights, cutting healthcare costs, and fighting for a progressive tax system. She’s backed by the Vermont Progressive Party and the Vermont National Education Association. Kane is a liberal, wanting to build more housing, fight for a progressive tax system, and cut insurance costs. He’s backed by the Vermont State Employees Association. Stroup is also a liberal, wanting to cut education costs, build more housing, and expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right). I think Stroup (by virtue of his local name recognition from the school board) and Bolles (thanks to her progressive support) get the win here.

HD-Bennington 2 (Northern Bennington, Harris+26) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbents Timothy Corcoran and Will Greer are running for re-election, but they’re being challenged in the primary by school board member Leon Johnson. Corcoran doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. Greer is a liberal, wanting to expand regulations on AI, defend workers’ rights, and expand access to healthcare. Johnson (who lost to Greer by 4 votes in last year’s primary) is mostly focused on cutting costs and expanding access to affordable housing. With Corcoran & Greer running as a team, I think they win out over Johnson.

HD-Chittenden 18 (Northern Burlington, Harris+58) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Carol Ode is running for re-election, but fellow State Representative Kevin Scully (who was appointed to this seat earlier this year under a bit of controversy) is not. That has led to two Democrats joining Ode in tomorrow’s primary: mental health counselor Amy Bielawski-Branch and former Burlington City Councilman Ali Dieng.

Ode doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. Bielawski-Branch is a liberal, wanting to build more housing, cut costs, and protect the environment. Dieng is a liberal, wanting to expand access to early childhood education, support universal healthcare, and build more affordable housing. I think Ode’s incumbency gets her one of the top two spots and she’ll be joined by Dieng thanks to his name recognition from his time on the Burlington City Council.

HD-Chittenden 21 (Winooski, Harris+62) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Daisy Berbeco is running for re-election, but fellow Democratic incumbent Chloe Tomlinson (who is also a member of the Progressive Party) is not. That has led to two Democrats joining Berbeco in the primary here: librarian Matt Gile and Winooski City Councillor Al Turkos.

Berbeco is a progressive, supporting universal healthcare, wanting to protect tenants’ rights, and promising to fight for “climate, social, & economic justice.” She’s backed by the VSEA and several progressive groups. Gile is also a progressive, promising to tax the rich, fight back against ICE, and build more public housing. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Tomlinson and State Senator Vyhovsky. Turkos (who would be Vermont’s first ever openly nonbinary state legislator) is a liberal, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, cut healthcare costs, and stand up to ICE. Berbeco should have a spot locked down and I think she’ll be joined by Gile thanks to his strong institutional support. I’m not counting out Turkos though, as their status as a local elected official could lead them to victory over Gile.

HD-Chittenden 22 (Southern Essex, Harris+47) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbents Karen Dolan and Lori Houghton are facing a primary challenge from community activist Matthew Towle. Dolan is mostly running on her legislative record, touting her efforts to expand access to affordable housing, cut healthcare costs, and stand up to the Trump Administration. Her & Houghton are running on a slate together. Houghton is a liberal, wanting to cut costs, expand paid family & sick leave, and fight back against climate change. Towle is a moderate, focusing on expanding economic development, building more housing, and practicing “fiscal responsibility.” The incumbents should win this one.

HD-Orange-Caledonia (Newbury/Topsham/Groton, Trump+1) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running for the party nod in this open, Republican-held district: pastor/2024 nominee James Merriam and Vermont State Youth Council Chairman Aiden Otterman. Merriam doesn’t have a campaign presence online. Otterman is a progressive, promising to support medicare-for-all, defend workers’ rights, and expand renewable energy production. In a case of “Damn, Vermont’s small,” The Republican nominee here is none other than Aiden’s uncle, Tom Otterman! Because Aiden appears to be the only one running a serious campaign, I’ll give him this one and set up an uncle vs nephew showdown here for November.

HD-Orange-Washington-Addison (Randolph/Brookfield/Braintree/Roxbury/Granville, Harris+29) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Larry Satcowitz is running for re-election, but fellow Democratic incumbent Jay Hooper is not, so three Democrats are running alongside Satcowicz in the primary: teacher Kevin Doering, community activist Thomas Harty, and Randolph Town Selectman Emery Mattheis.

Satcowitz is a liberal, promising to protect the environment, stop data centers, and expand access to affordable housing. Doering doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he does have several glowing letters written about him to local newspapers. Harty is running as an outsider, wanting to improve government transparency, rise above partisan politics, and support rural Vermonters. Mattheis is a progressive, promising to raise taxes on the rich, raise taxes on second/vacant homes, and fight back against climate change. He’s backed by the Vermont Progressive Party and the Democratic Socialists of America. With Satcowitz’s incumbency and Mattheis’s progressive support/name recognition from local government, I think those two take the top two spots here.

HD-Washington 4 (Montpelier, Harris+76) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Kate McCann is running for re-election in Vermont’s capital city, but fellow Democratic incumbent Conor Casey is not. That has led to two other Democrats joining McCann in the primary: nonprofit director Jared Duval and Montpelier City Councilwoman Pelin Kohn.

McCann is a liberal, focusing on reversing education funding cuts, expanding access to affordable housing, and fighting for paid family leave. She’s backed by the Sierra Club and the VSEA. She’s also running on a slate with Duval. Speaking of Duval, he’s also a liberal. He wants to fight for a more progressive tax system, improve flood resiliency, and defend civil rights. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and the Vermont National Education Association). Kohn is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, expand access to housing, and support small businesses. She’s backed by a few of her colleagues on the Montpelier City Council. I think the team of McCann & Duval wins here, but Kohn’s name recognition from the Montpelier City Council might allow her to sneak by Duval for second place.

HD-Windham 3 (Rockingham/Westminster/Brookline, Harris+38) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries here. Starting with the Democrats, who have three candidates running: incumbent State Representative Michelle Bos-Lun, engineer Chris Lundberg, and Westminster Town Selectman Stephen Major.

Bos-Lun is mostly running on her record of community engagement, but she’s also backed by the Sierra Club and the VSEA. Lundberg is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut healthcare costs, protect the environment, and expand economic development. Major is mostly running on his years of community services, but also promises to promote bipartisanship. Bos-Lun should get a spot in the top two based on incumbency, with Major getting the second spot thanks to his name recognition from local government.

On the Republican side, three candidates are running: Windham County Moms for Liberty President Nicole Cota, perennial candidate Ryan Coyne, and ghost candidate Patrick Dezafra. Cota is a culture warrior, attacking transgender athletes, wanting to expand “parental involvement” in education, and decrying “social justice activism.” Coyne wants to cut taxes, cut homelessness, and crack down on crime. He’s even decrying that Brattleboro is the most dangerous city in the state. Which is actually somewhat true, it has a higher crime rate than my home town of Chicago. The more you know! Dezafra has no campaign presence online. I guess Cota and Coyne win here.

HD-Windham 8 (Southern Brattleboro, Harris+63.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Mollie Burke retiring, two Democrats are running to replace her: accountant Ken Fay and Brattleboro Town Selectman Daniel Quipp.

Fay (who ran for this seat and a State Senate seat as an Independent in 2024) doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence online. Quipp is a liberal, promising to cut costs, protect tenants’ rights, and improve public safety. Quipp is the heavy favorite here thanks to his status as a local elected official/Fay not really running much of a campaign.

HD-Windsor 1 (Windsor/Hartland/West Windsor, Harris+37) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent John Bartholomew is running for re-election, but fellow Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Burrows is not, leading to two other Democrats joining Bartholomew in the primary: college student Dylan Morse and former Windsor Town Selectman John Tansey.

Bartholomew doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. Morse is a liberal, wanting to build more housing, lower the cost of living, and protect the environment. He’s backed by the AFL-CIO. Tansey is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, expand access to quality education, and protect the environment. Bartholomew should get a spot in the top two thanks to incumbency and I think he’ll be joined by Tansey thanks to his time in local government. However, I’m not counting out Morse, who could beat out Tansey thanks to union support.

HD-Windsor 3 (Springfield, Harris+13.5) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbents Alice Emmons and Kristi Morris are running for re-election, but they’re being challenged in the primary by businessman Mike Schmitt. Emmons has no campaign presence online, but she’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. Morris is the same, no campaign presence online but with a liberal voting record. Schmitt doesn’t really have much of a platform, instead relying on community engagement to get him the win. Yeah, I don’t think that’ll work, advantage to Emmons and Morris.

HD-Windsor-Orange 1 (Royalton/Tunbridge, Harris+27) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Democratic incumbent John O’Brien is facing a primary challenge from attorney Devin Brennan here. O’Brien calls himself a moderate, touting his efforts to support rural Vermonters, lower property taxes, and support small businesses. He was also the director behind the legendary Vermont film Man With a Plan, which inadvertently led to Fred Tuttle becoming a political legend in Vermont (but that’s a story for a different time). Brennan is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, support small businesses, and protect the environment. O’Brien should be the favorite here.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: track and field coach Robert Dunkle and Royalton Justice of the Peace/2024 nominee Bruce Post. Dunkle wants to cut taxes, improve government transparency, and cut regulations. Post has no campaign presence online, but he’ll probably win this one thanks to his name recognition from 2024 (where he came within 60 votes of unseating O’Brien).

HD-Windsor-Orange 2 (Norwich/Thetford/Sharon/Strafford, Harris+62) (2 Elected) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent James Masland is running for re-election, but fellow Democratic incumbent Rebecca Holcombe isn’t. That has led to two Democrats joining Marshland in the primary: accountant Dee Gish and nonprofit director Lauren Morando Rhim.

Masland doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s represented this district since 1998, so he’s almost universally well-known. Gish is a liberal, wanting to build more housing, cut costs, and improve climate resiliency. She’s backed by the Vermont Progressive Party. Rhim doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online. I’ll give the advantage to Masland and Gish here.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back in a bit to cover all the state legislative primaries going down in Connecticut tomorrow. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Hawaii Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’re continuing the string of primaries with weird dates (after Tennessee’s Thursday primary) with Hawaii! This one’s for the most hardcore of state legislature enjoyers, because not only is Hawaii holding their primary on a Saturday, we won’t actually get results here until after Midnight on the east coast! That doesn’t mean Hawaii is boring though, far from it. How? Well, let’s jump in and find out!

SD-02 (Eastern Hawai’i Island, Harris+27) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Joy San Buenaventura is trying to fend off a primary challenge from nonprofit official Tanya Yamanaka Aynessazian in this deeply Democratic district. Buenaventura is mostly running on her legislative records, touting her efforts to secure community investments, improve local infrastructure, and secure funding for housing repairs after volcano eruptions (yep, we’re in Hawaii alright). She’s backed by the Sierra Club and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Aynessazian is a liberal, wanting to improve community engagement, expand access to healthcare, and protect the local environment. She’s backed by the Green Party of Hawaii. Buenaventura has a huge financial advantage over Aynessazian. Buenaventura is the favorite here given her incumbency/institutional support.

SD-10 (Eastern Honolulu, Harris+42) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Les Ihara is facing a primary challenge from State Representative Jackson Sayama in this deeply Democratic district.

Ihara is almost entirely running on his service in the legislature, almost exclusively running on the fact that he’s spent over 40 years in the legislature. In a year where politicians are more tired of long-serving politicians than ever, I don’t know how good of a strategy that is. Sayama is almost the complete opposite of Ihara, being first elected to the State House in 2020 at the age of 23. He’s running as a liberal, wanting to enact a paid family leave program, build more affordable housing, and expand workforce development programs. He’s backed by Hawaii’s biggest teachers union, the Hawaii State Teachers Association, and former State House Speaker Calvin Say. Sayama has a solid financial advantage over Senator Ihara. This is truly an election about generational change. Ihara has been in office longer than Sayama has been alive and seems to be coasting on name recognition for this campaign. With Sayama running a very active campaign (and having name recognition of his own from his time in the State House) and running in a year where younger candidates are being favored by the electorate, I think Sayama unseats the longtime incumbent here.

SD-13 (West-central Honolulu, Harris+35) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Five Democrats are running to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Karl Rhoads in this deeply Democratic district: former Office of Hawaiian Affairs Trustee Lei Ahu Isa, former military police officer James Logue, Deputy Hawaii Attorney General Tricia Nakamatsu, teacher Jordan Nakamura, and neighborhood board member Lynn Vasquez.

Isa is a moderate, wanting to renovate public housing, crack down on crime, and repair local schools. She also has beef with the younger generations, asking “what have these young politicians done to help?” Yeah, beef with the younger generation because your generation hasn’t done anything either (Isa is partially to blame as she did serve in the State House from 1996-2002). Logue is also a moderate, promising to oppose any new taxes, crack down on crime, and build more affordable housing. Nakamatsu is a moderate, promising to crack down on crime, expand access to treatment for homeless residents, and build more housing. She’s backed by a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and the Hawaii State Teachers Association). Nakamura is a progressive, wanting to strengthen tenant protections, tackle the root causes of crime, and protect the local environment. He’s backed by the Sierra Club and Our Revolution. Vasquez is also a progressive, focusing on cutting costs, enacting universal pre-K, and protecting the environment. Nakamatsu has a solid financial advantage over her four opponents, with Logue, Nakamura, & Isa dueling it out for second place, and Vasquez not raising much money. I think Nakamatsu’s institutional support gets her the win here, but there’s an outside chance of the moderate vote splitting and getting Nakamura the win.

SD-14 (Northern Honolulu, Harris+18) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Donna Mercado Kim is trying to fend off a primary challenge from social worker Christy MacPherson in this solidly Democratic district.

Kim is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts in the legislature to cut taxes for working families, improve public education, and improve local infrastructure. She did kind of shoot her campaign in the foot earlier this year when she did this:

(Hawaii News Now)

That led to the Hawaii Government Employees Association (the biggest public sector union in Hawaii) endorsing Kim’s opponent, Christy MacPherson. MacPherson is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand the housing supply for working class residents, expand access to affordable healthcare, and improve government transparency. Outside of the HGEA, she’s also backed by the Sierra Club. Kim does have a financial advantage over MacPherson, but that’s not taking outside spending into account. With the unions against her, Kim’s really relying on her financial advantage and name recognition. I don’t think it’ll work and MacPherson unseats the incumbent.

SD-17 (Central O’ahu, Harris+16) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Donovan Dela Cruz is facing a primary challenge from electrician Nani Brown in this solidly Democratic district. Cruz is a standard Democrat, promising to protect the environment, strengthen local education, and cut housing costs. Brown is running as a liberal, promising to curb pesticide use, raise property taxes on non-residents and foreign owners, and get money out of politics. Dela Cruz has a huge financial advantage over Brown, so he should win this one easily, but Brown should get a few votes from local NIMBYs/community-focused voters.

SD-19 (Waipahu area, Harris+6) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Rachele Lamosao was appointed to this Democratic-leaning seat in December 2025. Now, she’s running for the remainder of the original term, but she’s facing a primary challenge from doctor Inam Rahman. Lamosao is a standard Democrat, focusing on raising teacher salaries, improving food security, and cutting costs. She’s backed by a bunch of unions (most notably the Hawaii State Teachers Association). Rahman is running on a similar platform, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, strengthen public schools, and expand access to healthcare. He was almost appointed to the State House in December 2025, but that nomination was pulled after he was named in a domestic abuse allegation by his wife. That was later pulled, but it gave Hawaii Democrats cold feet and they pulled the nomination. Lamosao has a huge financial advantage over Rahman and has strong institutional support, so she should win this one.

SD-20 (Ewa Gentry/Ewa Beach area, Trump+5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

I would like to welcome the Hawaii Republican Party into the vaunted club of political parties who are actually serious political parties. Why? Well, they have two different races this year (one for State Senate and one for State House) where their incumbents are facing primary challengers! It’s a big step for a party that only had five state legislators after the 2020 elections. Now they’ve nearly tripled that number and have their incumbents facing primaries. Anyway, Republican incumbent Kurt Fevella has two primary opponents in tonight’s primary for this Republican-leaning district: former State Representative Bob McDermott and former Democratic State Representative Rida Cabanilla Arakawa.

Fevella is a moderate, promising to cut costs, improve public safety, and strengthen public schools. He’s backed by the Honolulu Star Advertiser. McDermott (who was the Republican nominee for US Senate in 2022) is a conservative, promising to fight “corruption” in the state government and stop the “transing” of children. He’s also a bit of whiner, saying this is in an interview with the Honolulu Star Advertiser:

(Yeah, I wonder why they didn’t endorse you Bob)

Arakawa is a moderate, wanting to improve public transit, expand access to healthcare, and repair unused public housing. Fevella has a solid financial advantage over his two opponents, with McDermott barely outpacing Arakawa for second place. I think Fevella wins here, but there’s definitely a chance McDermott gets enough conservative support to unseat him. If that happens, then the Democrats have a very good chance of flipping this seat in November. If not, then Fevella should be able to keep this district in Republican hands.

SD-25 (Kailua/eastern East Honolulu area, Harris+30) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Chris Lee is facing a primary challenge from casting producer Bobby Silva in this deeply Democratic district. Lee is a liberal, touting his efforts to stand up to chemical companies, stop utility rate hikes, and fight back against climate change. Silva is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, cut traffic congestion, and improve local infrastructure. Lee has a huge financial advantage over Silva, so he should be able to use that (and his incumbency) to get himself a win here.

HD-02 (Western Hilo, Harris+39) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Sue Lee Loy is facing a primary challenge from businesswoman Cristina Holt in this deeply Democratic district. Loy doesn’t have much of a platform, but she’s backed by a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Holt is a progressive, wanting to build more affordable housing, raise wages, and raise taxes on the rich. Loy has a wide financial advantage over Holt and should be able to use that/her incumbency to get the win here.

HD-03 (Eastern Hilo area, Harris+25) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Chris Todd is facing off against cultural advisor Kiana Keawekane in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district. Todd doesn’t have much of a platform, instead bragging about his efforts in the local community (where he’s a high school football coach). Keawekane is mostly focused on protecting the environment and protecting native groups/cultures. She hasn’t raised much money, so Todd should be the favorite here.

HD-04 (Eastern Hawai’i Island, Harris+29) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Greggor Ilagan is facing a primary challenge from businessman Tam Hunt in this deeply Democratic district. Ilagan is a standard Democrat, focusing on improving local infrastructure and improving social services. Hunt is a liberal, promising to raise teacher salaries, build more affordable housing, and grow more local food. Ilagan has a huge financial advantage over Hunt, who hasn’t really attracted much outside support, so Ilagan should be fine here.

HD-05 (Southern Hawai’i Island, Harris+27) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Jeanne Kapela is trying to fend off a primary challenge from Hawai’i County Councilman Matt Kaneali’i-Kleinfelder in this deeply Democratic district. Kapela is a liberal, focusing on making the tax system “fairer,” defending reproductive freedom, and supporting Native groups. Kaneali’i-Kleinfelder is a moderate, mostly focusing on improving local infrastructure and cutting taxes. He hasn’t raised much (if any) money for his campaign and doesn’t really have any social media presence. Either he’s running a very offline campaign or he’s relying on his name recognition from the County Council to get the win here. I’ll go with the latter option, but either option probably isn’t enough to unseat Kapela. As such, Kapela is the favorite to win.

HD-08 (Northwestern Hawai’i Island, Harris+30) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running in this deeply Democratic district: realtor Hope Cermelj and massage therapist Monique Perreira. Cermelj is a bit of an insane person, being arrested in 2017 for defacing property at the Mauna Kea mountain, a mountain that’s very important to local natives. She also considers herself a subject of the “Kingdom of Hawaii” instead of the state, so there’s a bit of sovereign citizen nuttyness here. As for this campaign, I’ll let her interview with the Honolulu Star Advertiser speak for itself:

Perreira, on the other hand, is a more standard Republican. She wants to cut taxes, build more affordable housing, and crack down on crime. She’s outpaced Cermelj in fundraising and with Cermelj’s “troubled” past, I think Perreira wins this one.

HD-10 (Wailuku/Waikapu, Harris+26) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Tyson Miyake is facing a primary challenge from nonprofit official Ki’i Kaho’ohanohano in this deeply Democratic district. Miyake is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, cut costs, and expand economic development. He’s backed by a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Kaho’ohanohano wants to improve community engagement, protect local water rights, and expand access to affordable housing. She has lagged far behind Miyake in fundraising/outside support though, so Miyake should win this one easily.

HD-12 (Central Mau’i, Harris+31) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Kyle Yamashita is facing off against nonprofit director Keoni Kuoha in this deeply Democratic district.

Yamashita doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, with the last biggest thing about him coming from May of last year when he was ousted as Chairman of the powerful House Finance Committee. He’s kept a very low-profile since then. Kuoha is a liberal, focusing on cutting costs, protecting water rights, and raising taxes on non-resident housing. He’s backed by the Sierra Club, the Hawaii Green Party and the Hawaii State Teachers Association. Yamashita has a solid financial advantage over Kuoha. Despite that, I actually think Kuoha wins here. Why? Because I think Yamashita is asleep at the wheel. He’s not doing any public campaigning (which, to be fair, has worked in Hawaii before), with Kuoha outworking him by a large margin. Getting union support was just the icing on the cake Kuoha needed to get the win here (in my opinion).

HD-14 (Western Mau’i, Harris+16) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Three Democrats are hoping for the party nod to challenge Democrat-turned-Republican incumbent Elle Cochran in this solidly Democratic district: union official Ashley Olson, businessman Sne Patel, and chef Kanamu Balinbin.

Olson is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, raise taxes on investment properties (from out-of-state owners), and improve local infrastructure. Patel is a standard Democrat, focusing on helping the district recover from the brutal wildfires that engulfed Lahaina in 2023, expanding access to affordable housing, and improving local infrastructure. He’s backed by several unions. Balinbin doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, instead almost entirely using his campaign to showcase his efforts to feed the local community (for free in some instances), which is a very noble thing to do. Patel has a wide financial advantage over Olson, with Balinbin not raising much money. Because of that (and union support), I think Patel wins. Honestly, I think the primary is the most boring part of this year’s election here. Why? Because not only is Cochran running for re-election as a Republican, a Green Party candidate named Pā‘ele Kiakona is running. He’s a pretty well-known local community activist (especially in the aftermath of the Lahaina fires) and secured endorsements from several unions (most notably, Hawaii’s biggest public sector union, the HGEA). More on that in November, but the fun’s just getting started here.

HD-17 (Western Kaua’i, Harris+21) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Dee Morikawa is trying to fend off a primary challenge from teacher Chad Schimmelfennig in this deeply Democratic district. Morikawa is mostly focused on cutting costs, admitting in an interview that most of her other priorities are better served in working with the County-level government. A politician being a realist, a rare sight. Schimmelfennig (whose first name is short for Chadley) wants to “protect Hawaiian culture,” expand funding for public education, and protect the local environment. Morikawa has a solid financial advantage over Schimmelfennig, who hasn’t really been able to attract much outside support. I’ll give the advantage to Morikawa here.

HD-19 (Western East Honolulu, Harris+36) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Mark Hashem is facing a primary challenge from community activist Kahi Pacarro in this deeply Democratic district. Hashem doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence online. Pacarro is a liberal, promising to protect the local environment, expand access to emergency services, and hold utility companies accountable for rate increases. He’s backed by the Sierra Club. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, but Hashem has slightly outpaced Pacarro in spending. I’ll give the slight advantage to Hashem here, but he doesn’t really seem like he’s trying that hard. In fact, the only reason why I’m not giving Pacarro the win here is because he hasn’t gotten great union support. Despite that, he could very well win. For now though, advantage to Hashem.

HD-21 (Saint Louis Heights/Maunalani Heights area (Honolulu), Harris+43) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Jackson Sayama running for State Senate, five Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: neighborhood board member Ranell Asuega-Fualaau, neighborhood board member Angie Knight, attorney Jake Takaya Morrow, neighborhood board member Andrew Phomsouvanh, and former Hawaii Democratic Party Chairman Derek Turbin.

Asuega-Fualaau is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public safety, cut costs, and expand opportunities for the youth of the district. Knight is running on a similar platform, promising to improve pedestrian safety, cut housing costs, and support local businesses. Morrow is a progressive, promising to crack down on lobbyists, build more housing, and heavily expand renewable energy production to get off of fossil fuels. He’s backed by the Sierra Club. Phomsouvanh is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, building housing that “respects neighborhood character,” and expanding access to childcare. He’s backed by former State House Speaker Say and a few unions. Turbin is a liberal, promising to expand paid family leave, expand access to mental healthcare, and defend voting rights. He’s backed by several unions (most notably the Hawaii State Teachers Association). Turbin has a wide financial lead over his four opponents, with Phomsouvanh and Morrow dueling it out for second, and Knight/Asuega-Fualaau lagging far behind. With the union support and financial advantage, I think Turbin wins this one.

HD-24 (Waikiki area (Honolulu), Harris+33) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Adrian Tam is trying to fend off a primary challenge from businessman Bulla Eastman in this deeply Democratic district.

Tam is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, protect the local environment, and improve public safety. He’s backed by the Sierra Club and several unions (most notably the Hawaii State Teachers Association). Eastman is a moderate, promising to crack down on crime, cut red tape for small businesses, and shrink the public homeless population by expanding treatment options. He’s backed by the Teamsters and the Hawaii State Police union. Tam has a solid financial advantage over Eastman, but Eastman has been able to hold serve with the incumbent. Tam should win this one, but Eastman will probably get a fair amount of public safety-focused voters on his side.

HD-26 (Makiki area (Honolulu), Harris+41) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Democratic incumbent Della Au Belatti running for Lieutenant Governor, both parties have contested primaries to replace her in this deeply Democratic district. Starting with the Democrats, who have four candidates running: neighborhood board member Nathan Char, Civil Air Patrol member Janel Fujinaka, nonprofit official Arjuna Heim, and former neighborhood board chairman Ian Ross.

Char is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to childcare, expand workforce development programs, and improve public safety. He’s backed by the HGEA. Fujinaka is a liberal, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, protect workers’ rights, and improve climate resiliency. She’s backed by the LGBTQ Victory Fund and Hawaii’s first ever transgender State Representative Kim Coco Iwamoto. Heim is mostly touting her efforts to cut housing costs and improve public safety. Ross is a moderate, promising to reduce homelessness, build more housing, and crack down on crime. He’s backed by several unions (most notably the Hawaii State Teachers Association). Char leads the four in fundraising, followed shortly behind by Ross, with Heim and Fujinaka lagging further behind. This one should be close between Char & Ross, but I think Ross ultimately wins thanks to better institutional support.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: businesswoman Robyn McCreary and community activist Tony Silva. McCreary is a standard Republican, promising to crack down on crime, cut taxes, and improve climate resiliency. Silva is mostly focused on cutting costs and improving public education. Silva has a solid financial advantage over McCreary. Because of that, I think Silva wins this one.

HD-28 (Chinatown area (Honolulu), Harris+23) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Cov Ratcliffe was appointed to this deeply Democratic seat in April 2026, a move which obviously did not dissuade any opponents from running as he’s facing four opponents in tonight’s primary: community activist Reno Abihai, progressive activist Nadia Alves, neighborhood board chairman Ernest Caravalho, and video editor Anthony Nagatani.

Ratcliffe is a liberal, wanting to build more apartments, stand up to ICE, and improve local infrastructure. He’s backed by the Hawaii State Teachers Association. Abihai is a moderate, promising to expand treatment for homeless residents, build more affordable housing, and crack down on crime. He’s backed by several unions (most notably the Hawaii State Police union). Alves is a progressive, wanting to improve public safety, raise taxes on the rich, and improve government transparency. She’s backed by the Sierra Club, Our Revolution, and the Hawaii Star Advertiser. Caravalho doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online except for a news article stating that he was arrested in August of last year for disorderly conduct and harassment at 2:00 AM in the morning. Definitely something you want out there in your race for State House. Nagatani is a liberal, promising to improve local infrastructure, improve public safety, and fight for rent stabilization. He’s backed by LiUNA. Nagatani and Abihai are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Alves close behind, Ratcliffe lagging behind the top three, and Caravalho not raising much money. This is a pure toss-up, but I’ll be bold here and say that Alves wins. I think the unions/moderates are going to split the vote enough to lead to a progressive win here.

HD-29 (Kalihi Valley/Kapalama area (Honolulu), Harris+11.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Ikaika Hussey is trying to fend off a challenge from former State Representative John Mizuno in this solidly Democratic district.

Hussey is mostly focusing on his efforts to expand community investments, but he’s also backed by the Honolulu Star Advertiser. Mizuno is a moderate, promising to reduce homelessness, crack down on crime, and cut costs. Mizuno has a huge financial lead over the incumbent. This isn’t your ordinary incumbent getting a primary battle, because Hussey’s only been in the House for one term and Mizuno represented this district for almost 20 years. He was replaced by his wife after he resigned to become Governor Josh Green’s “Homelessness Czar” and his wife was, in turn, defeated by Hussey in the 2024 primary. Despite that, I think Mizuno gets his old job back and unseat the freshman Hussey.

HD-30 (Hickam Housing/western Honolulu, Harris+2) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries in this ultra-competitive district. On the Democratic side, incumbent Shirley Templo is facing off against nonprofit director Kekoa Kealoha and community activist Faatea Faatea.

Templo isn’t running on much outside of “putting people first.” Kealoha is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand funding for local health centers, and support small businesses. He’s backed by the Hawaii State Teachers Association and the Hawaii Green Party. Faatea doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but is backed by the HGEA and the Hawaii State Police union. Kealoha has the financial advantage over Templo, with Faatea lagging behind both of them by a pretty solid margin. I think Kealoha actually unseats Templo here. I think a fair amount of her base of moderates would be drawn to Faatea instead thanks to his union support, allowing Kealoha to win.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: community activist Angela Young and community activist Amanda Ybanez. Young is a moderate, wanting to improve local education, attract more film/music productions to Hawaii, and expand economic development. Ybanez has more info about her podcast that she hosts than actual campaign planks. Young is the only candidate to raise money here and I’m naturally biased against podcast hosts so I guess I’ll go with Young to win.

HD-36 (Waipahu area, Harris+2) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Daisy Hartsfield was appointed to this ultra-competitive seat in January 2026 and she’s running for a full term. She’s going to have to first get through two opponents in tonight’s primary before she can get a full term though: businessman Eric Barsatan and neighborhood board member Maurice Morita.

Hartsfield is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding access to healthcare, improving public safety, and supporting local small businesses. She’s backed by several unions (most notably the Hawaii State Teachers Association). Barsatan is a moderate, focusing on cutting costs, cracking down on crime, and cutting red tape for small businesses. Morita is also a moderate, wanting to cut taxes, improve public education, and support law enforcement. Hartsfield has a solid financial advantage over her two opponents. That (and strong union support) will ultimately lead her to a win, in my opinion.

HD-37 (Southern Mililani Town area, Harris+22) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Trish La Chica is facing a primary challenge from community activist Trevor Nagamine in this deeply Democratic district. La Chica is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public safety, expand access to healthcare, and cut housing costs. Nagamine wants to build more housing and improve public transit. La Chica has a huge financial advantage over him, so she should win.

HD-39 (Royal Kunia area, Harris+3) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Elijah Pierick running for State Senate, both parties have contested primaries to replace him in this ultra-competitive district. Starting with the Republicans, who have two candidates running: neighborhood board member Danny DeGracia and neighborhood board member Wayne Kaiwi.

DeGracia is a moderate, focusing on cutting costs, expanding economic development, and building more housing. He’s backed by the Honolulu Star Advertiser. Kaiwi is running on a similar platform, wanting to cut costs, cut traffic congestion, and improve local education. He’s backed by several unions. DeGracia has a solid financial advantage over Kaiwi, which I ultimately think will lead him to victory, but Kaiwi’s union support could get him over the line.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: former union president/2022 & 2024 nominee Corey Rosenlee and community organizer Loren Doctolero. Rosenlee is a liberal, wanting to hire more teachers, establish a paid family/sick leave program, and improve public transit. He’s backed by the Sierra Club and several unions (most notably the Hawaii State Teachers Association, the union that Rosenlee used to lead!). Doctolero is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, expand funding for public education, and support local farmers. He’s backed by several unions (most notably the Hawaii State Police union). Doctolero has a slight financial advantage over Rosenlee, but I think Rosenlee’s name recognition from his previous runs (including 2024, where he only lost by 11 votes to Pierick) gets him the win.

HD-43 (Makakilo/western Kapolei, Trump+2.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

As part of the Hawaii Republican Party’s quest to become a big boy political party, here’s another one of their incumbents facing a primary challenge! That’s because Republican incumbent Kanani Souza is trying to fend off a challenge from US Army veteran Sheila Medeiros in the Republican primary for this ultra-competitive district.

Souza doesn’t really have much of a platform, but she’s backed by several unions (including the AFL-CIO and Hawaii State Teachers Association). Medeiros is a conservative, promising to defend “election integrity,” oppose abortion, and restrict gender-affirming care for minors, attacking Souza for being weak on all three issues. She’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Souza has a slight financial advantage over Medeiros. I think Souza’s incumbency/union support gets her the win here, but this is going to be a very fascinating case study (alongside the SD-20 primary) on how conservative the Hawaii Republican electorate actually is. If they throw out two moderates in favor of two conservative culture warriors, then we’ll definitely know our answer.

HD-44 (Nanakuli/Maili, Trump+13) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Darius Kila holds down a Trump+13 district in western O’ahu, but that hasn’t stopped him from facing a primary challenger in the form of former State Representative Mike Kahikina. Kila is a standard Democrat, focusing on improving public safety, cutting costs, and advancing opportunities for native Hawaiians. He’s backed by the Hawaii State Police union. Kahikina (who tried running for this seat in 2020 and got destroyed) has no campaign presence online and raised no money for his campaign. Kila should win this one easily.

HD-46 (Wahiawa area, Harris+4.5) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running in this ultra-competitive district: businessman Daniel Gabriel and community activist Rocklin Youngstrom. Gabriel is a standard Republican, wanting to improve local infrastructure, crack down on crime, and improve youth programs. Youngstrom is running on a similar platform, promising to increase public safety, support public schools, and lower the public homeless population. She’s trying to downplay some of her past conservative-ness here, as her Instagram has a ton of photos/videos of her supporting President Trump and Charlie Kirk and even comparing “transgenderism” to Sodom and Gomorrah. Gabriel has a wide financial advantage and should be the favorite to win because of it.

HD-51 (Eastern Kailua area, Harris+26) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Lisa Marten is facing two opponents in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: businessman Steve Haumschild and waterman Micah Kalama.

Marten is running on her legislative record, touting her efforts to expand access to treatment for homeless residents, protect senior services, and expand food assistance. She’s backed by the Sierra Club and several unions (most notably the Hawaii State Teachers Association). Haumschild is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding economic development, and protecting native Hawaiians. Kalama is a moderate, wanting to cut housing costs, crack down on crime, and protect local culture. Marten has outpaced Kalama in fundraising, with Haumschild lagging behind them. I think Marten will be fine here.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back Monday/Tuesday to cover all of the state legislative primaries going down in Connecticut, Vermont, Minnesota, & Wisconsin. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Tennessee Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. After Tuesday’s chaotic primaries, did you think we were slowing down? Nope! That’s because we have another primary tonight in Tennessee! Yeah, I don’t why Tennessee holds their primaries on a Thursday, but here we are. Let’s not beat around the bush any longer and get into The Volunteer State’s primaries!

SD-01 (Bradley/McMinn/Rhea/Meigs Counties, Trump+62) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Adam Lowe is facing two opponents in the primary for this deeply Republican district: former Tennessee USDA Farm Service Agency Director Dennis Beavers and realtor Teresa Congioloso. Lowe is a conservative, touting his efforts to stand with President Trump, ban “transgender surgery” for minors, and cut taxes. He’s backed by US Senator/gubernatorial candidate Marsha Blackburn. Beavers is a standard Republican, wanting to raise teacher salaries, improve local infrastructure, and protect farmers. Congioloso is a conservative, promising to oppose “DEI mandates,” expand access to mental healthcare, and oppose school vouchers. Lowe has a huge financial advantage over both of his opponents, so he should win this one.

SD-03 (Washington/Carter/Johnson Counties, Trump+48) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Rusty Crowe is trying to fend off a primary challenge from businessman Dan Pohlgeers in this deeply Republican district.

Crowe is a conservative, touting his efforts to pass President Trump and HHS Secretary RFK Jr. (we live in hell)’s agendas, keep the income tax out of Tennessee, and raise Tennessee’s bond rating. Pohlgeers is running as a conservative outsider, promising to oppose abortion, fight for “responsible use” of school vouchers, and fight for healthcare reform (attacking Crowe for being too close to big healthcare groups). Crowe has a slight financial advantage over Pohlgeers, who has been able to nearly hold pace with the incumbent. I think Crowe holds on and wins here, but Pohlgeers has been able to drum up some strong support with his populist policies, so I’m not counting him out.

SD-07 (Central Knox County, Trump+19) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Richard Briggs is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Kent Morrell in this solidly Republican district.

Briggs is a standard Republican, touting his efforts to cut taxes, raise teacher salaries, and fight the opioid epidemic. He’s backed by the Tennessee Firefighters union. Morrell is a conservative, promising to stop “unconstitutional mandates” for healthcare, fight for “parental rights” in medical matters, and cut taxes. Calling himself the “True Republican” in the race, he has attacked Briggs for taking money from special interest groups, supporting the CDC during the COVID-19 pandemic, and supporting vaccine mandates. He’s backed by the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group and several conservative grassroots groups. Briggs has a wide financial advantage over Morrell. Briggs already beat Morrell 66-34 in 2022, so I think he wins again this year by a similar margin.

SD-17 (Wilson County/eastern Nashville, Trump+26) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republican primary, where Republican incumbent Mark Pody is trying to fend off a challenge from businessman Butch Baker.

Pody is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting taxes, cutting red tape for small businesses, and expanding “parental rights” in education. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and the Tennessee Firefighters union. Baker is a conservative, promising to “protect the Constitution and Never Alter The Bible,” whatever the hell that means. He also wants to eliminate “pointless spending,” and improve local education. He’s backed by country music singer Lee Greenwood. Pody has a solid financial advantage over Baker. Pody should be fine here, but Baker could get votes from people who think Pody isn’t conservative enough.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: businesswoman Joni Cochran and librarian Lindsey Patrick-Wright. Cochran is a liberal, wanting to stop “big business tax breaks,” improve maternal healthcare, and cut taxes for working families. Patrick-Wright is also a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, cut prescription drug costs, and defend workers’ rights. She’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials (most notably State Representative/2025 TN-07 candidate Aftyn Behn). Patrick-Wright has the slight financial advantage over Cochran. Because of that (and institutional support), I think Patrick-Wright wins here.

SD-33 (Southern Memphis, Harris+65) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

While Democratic incumbent London Lamar is running for Congress in the newly-gerrymandered TN-09, she’s also running for re-election here. Tennessee law allows that, which we’ll see again later. Anyway, Lamar is facing a primary challenge from community activist Tamika Abrum in this deeply Democratic district. Lamar is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, cut healthcare costs, and improve community-police relationships. Abrum wants to improve local education, improve public safety, and expand economic development. She’s backed by the AFSCME. She hasn’t raised any money for her campaign though, so Lamar should win easily.

HD-01 (Bristol area, Trump+55) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent John Crawford is facing a primary challenge from Sullivan County Commissioner Jessica Means in this deeply Republican district.

Crawford calls himself a “Tennessee First Republican” who will stand with President Trump, defend “conservative values,” and fight for “fiscal responsibility.” He’s backed by the NRA and several local elected officials. Means is a conservative, promising to strengthen “parental rights” in education, eliminate “wasteful” spending, and defend the 2nd Amendment. She’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Crawford’s clearly scared of Means, attacking her for accepting money from groups who have given money to Democrats in the past. That has morphed into this campaign ad:

You can also tell that he’s scared because he’s unloaded nearly $200k in spending to defeat Means, who hasn’t really been able to keep up the pace in fundraising. I’ll be bold here and say that Means actually wins. I think Crawford’s attack ads have kind of backfired against him (according to locals), which could ultimately lead to his defeat.

HD-08 (Eastern Blount County, Trump+51) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Jerome Moon retiring, both parties have contested primaries to replace him in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republicans, who have two candidates running: Maryville Police Chief Tony Crisp and teacher Jordan Henderson.

Crisp is a conservative, promising to fight “overdevelopment,” crack down on illegal immigration, and end “woke agendas” in schools. He’s backed by Blount County Sheriff Lee Berong and the Fraternal Order of Police. Henderson is also a conservative, wanting to stop “indoctrination” in schools, crack down on crime, and oppose abortion. Crisp has a wide financial advantage over Henderson. Combine that with institutional support, I think Crisp wins here.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: teacher Mac Pickle and businesswoman Hilary Trudell. Pickle, who ran for this seat in 2024 and lost in the primary, doesn’t have much of a campaign platform available online. Trudell has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. She is running for Blount County Commissioner at the same time as this race though, so maybe voters seeing her on the ballot twice will lead her to winning here? It’s a stretch, but neither of these folks have raised any money, so I got to go with something. So, yeah, I’ll go with Trudell to win.

HD-11 (Cocke/eastern Jefferson/Hamblen Counties, Trump+68) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Jeremy Faison retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Cocke County Republican Party Chairman Kenny Cody and teacher Jeff Fancher.

Cody is a conservative, promising to cut regulations, stop “indoctrination from the progressive left,” and oppose abortion. He’s backed by President Trump (in his first state legislative endorsement since Indiana back in May), outgoing Representative Faison, and TN-01 Congresswoman Diana Harshbarger. Fancher doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s been very active in his campaigning. Cody has a wide financial advantage. Listen, this is an open seat in a Trump+68 district. An endorsement from President Trump here is the equivalent to an automatic win. As such, Cody has to be the favorite.

HD-14 (Southern Knoxville suburbs, Trump+24.5) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: businesswoman Lindsay Young Honaker and businessman Shivam Zaveri. Honaker is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding funding for public education, and improving local infrastructure. Zaveri has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Honaker should be the favorite to win considering she’s the only candidate running an active campaign.

HD-18 (Southern Knoxville area, Trump+9) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Elaine Davis is trying to fend off challenges from two primary opponents in this Republican-leaning district: attorney Brent Jones and attorney Elliott Schuchardt.

Davis is mostly running on her legislative record, touting her efforts to cut red tape for businesses, improve government transparency, and expand funding for school safety. She’s backed by the NRA, the Tennessee Firefighters union, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Jones is a standard Republican, promising to crack down on crime, improve local education, and enact “responsible” government spending. Schuchardt wants to establish an elected Attorney General’s office in Tennessee and improve judicial ethics. Jones has actually easily outpaced Davis in the financial race, with Schuchardt not raising much money. I still think Davis wins thanks to her incumbency, but Jones has been giving her a very tough run for re-election. Either way, whoever wins will be in for a very competitive November election against Democratic nominee Bryan Goldberg.

HD-23 (McMinn/southern Monroe Counties, Trump+67) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mark Cochran is facing a primary challenge from former US Secret Service agent Will Bolton in this deeply Republican district. Cochran is running on his conservative voting record, touting his efforts to “keep men out of women’s sports,” ban “transgender surgeries” for minors, and oppose abortion. He’s backed by the anti-abortion Tennessee Right to Life group, the NRA and Knox County Mayor/professional wrestler Glenn Jacobs (aka KANE!). Bolton is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, cut taxes, and crack down on illegal immigration. He’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Cochran has a huge financial advantage over Bolton. I think Cochran wins this one, but Bolton has been able to get some grassroots support, so he’ll probably perform amicably.

HD-26 (Northern Hamilton County, Trump+23) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican seat: businessman Nathan Denton and service worker Lucian LaFae. Denton wants to cut property taxes, stop “reckless development,” and stop “out-of-state developers.” LaFae wants to eliminate the grocery tax and expand access to healthcare. Pure toss-up here as neither candidate has raised money. I guess I’ll go with Denton, but I’m not even sure he’s campaigning (he hasn’t updated any of his social media pages since March).

HD-27 (Western Hamilton County, Trump+19) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Michele Reneau is trying to fend off a primary challenge from attorney Tony Hullender in this solidly Republican district.

Reneau is a right-winger, promising to crack down on illegal immigration, stop “Critical Race Theory” in schools, and fight for Tennessee’s “state sovereignty.” She’s backed by the Chattanooga Firefighters union, the Tennessee Right to Life group, and several conservative grassroots groups. Hullender is a standard Republican, promising to focus on “pocketbook issues,” improve public safety, and shrink the size of the government. Reneau has a wide financial advantage over Hullender. Reneau should be the favorite here, but Hullender’s focus on affordability is probably going to be more in-tune with the actual needs of the voters than Reneau’s culture war issues, so he could get a good amount of the vote.

HD-31 (Rhea/Sequatchie/Bledsoe/Van Buren Counties, Trump+67.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Ron Travis retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: school board member Harold “Bo” McCawley and Bledsoe County Commissioner Andy Swafford.

McCawley is a moderate, focusing on improving local education, supporting veterans, and protecting farmers. He doesn’t have any endorsements, but do you know what he does have? Merchandise!

(I don’t know what’s the most confusing part here, the fact that his nickname is now “Bimbo” or the fact that he misspelled Van Buren County as “Van Buran County”)

Swafford is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, support law enforcement, and expand workforce development programs. He also has a picture of himself with deceased conservative activist Charlie Kirk on his website and it might be the most unflattering image of Kirk (not made using AI after he was assassinated) I’ve ever seen:

(Swafford on the left, Kirk on the right)

He’s backed by the Tennessee Right to Life Group and Knox County Mayor Jacobs. Swafford has a wide financial advantage over McCawley. Swafford should win this one, mostly thanks to better institutional support and the conservative grassroots hating McCawley.

HD-32 (Roane/northern Loudon Counties, Trump+53) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Monty Fritts retiring (and running for Governor), three Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: school board member Melissa Caldwell Browder, Roane County Sheriff Jack Stockton, and electrician Paul Suarez.

Browder is a standard Republican, focusing on enacting “responsible” growth/development, cutting taxes, and improving public safety. Stockton is a conservative, promising to defend the Constitution, defend the 2nd Amendment, and safeguard “religious liberty.” He’s backed by the Tennessee Chamber of Commerce. Suarez is a standard Republican, wanting to improve local infrastructure, expand funding for law enforcement, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Browder has a solid financial advantage over Stockton, with Suarez not raising my money. Despite that, I think Stockton wins this one. He’s been Roane County Sheriff for over 20 years, which should lead him to a huge win out of the county. That should be enough to get him the win, but Browder is also pretty well known in Loudon County, so I’m not counting her out.

HD-33 (Oak Ridge area, Trump+32) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: project manager/2024 nominee Anne Backus and engineer Kelly McCampbell. Backus is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, eliminate the sales tax on food, and support “equality and equity for all.” McCampbell is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, expand access to healthcare, and expand economic development. She has attacked Backus for running for this seat two years ago and not mentioning “working families” once, only claiming that Backus started mentioning them this year after McCampbell entered the race. We’ve got beef over a phrase in a Trump+32 district Democratic primary, alert CNN! Anyway, Backus has a solid financial advantage over McCampbell and should be able to win thanks to name recognition from 2024.

HD-35 (Trousdale/southern Sumner Counties, Trump+42) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: healthcare professional Lance Loftis and theater designer Phil Barnes. Loftis is a moderate, focusing on improving infrastructure, strengthening workforce development programs, and using tax dollars “efficiently.” Barnes (who is also running for Sumner County Commissioner) is a liberal, wanting to end school vouchers, stop the “weaponization of religion,” and fight for gun control. He also has this whole section on his website:

(Erika Kirk will respond after making her multi-million dollar firework entrance)

First candidate I’ve seen this year to call out stuff like this, so that’s interesting. Anyway, neither candidate has raised much (if any) money. So, I’ll go with Barnes to win just based on vibes.

HD-36 (Campbell/Union/western Claiborne Counties, Trump+70) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Dennis Powers is facing a primary challenge from pilot Noah Smith in this deeply Republican district.

Powers is running on a vaguely conservative platform with no actual planks, but several promises to stand with President Trump. He’s backed by US Senator Blackburn and Governor Bill Lee. Smith is a conservative, wanting to shrink the size of the government, defend the 2nd Amendment, and crack down on illegal immigration. He has attacked Powers for being a “leadership stooge” who hasn’t fought hard enough to defend gun rights. Powers has responded by calling Smith a Trump opponent, because tying himself to the President is a really desperate move. Powers has outpaced Smith in fundraising, but not by a huge amount. I’ll go bold here and say that Smith wins. Powers is running a campaign like someone who’s clearly rattled and the fact that he had to get Blackburn & Lee’s support while also still trying to tie himself to Trump is a bit of a tell that he’s in trouble. He could still definitely win thanks to incumbency and institutional support, but for now I’ll go with Smith.

HD-37 (Northern Rutherford County, Trump+23) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: progressive activist Marlayna Trego and businesswoman Mary Ann Young. Trego is running on a vague platform of supporting working families, but she’s backed by State Representative Behn and Run For Something. Young is a local-focused Democrat, wanting to fix the roads, stop the proposed expansion of a local landfill, and stop data centers. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising. I’ll give the edge to Trego here thanks to her institutional support, but this one’s a pure toss-up.

HD-43 (Warren/White Counties, Trump+61) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Paul Sherrell is facing a primary challenge from school board member DeWayne Howard in this deeply Republican district. Sherrell calls himself an “America and Tennessee First Fighter” who will oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and stop the “Liberal Woke Agenda.” He’s backed by the Tennessee Chamber of Commerce and the Tennessee Right to Life group. Howard is a conservative, promising to support law enforcement, oppose abortion, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Sherrell has a wide financial advantage and should be able to use that/incumbency to get him a win tonight.

HD-44 (Northern Sumner County, Trump+50) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent/Majority Leader William Lamberth is facing off against conservative activist Jennifer Barton in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Lamberth is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, defend the 2nd Amendment, and oppose abortion. He’s backed by Governor Lee and the Fraternal Order of Police. Barton is also a conservative, promising to “abolish” abortion, expand school choice, and crack down on crime. She’s raised no money for her campaign, so Lamberth should be fine here.

HD-45 (Western Sumner County, Trump+34) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Johnny Garrett retiring (and running for TN-06), three Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businessman John Gentry, former Sumner County Commissioner Chris Hughes, and businessman Brian Stewart.

Gentry is running as a bit of a populist, promising to restore “strict compliance” with the Constitution, eliminate the grocery tax, and stop data centers. His campaign page has mostly been focused on supporting right-wing State Representative Monty Fritts for Governor. Like, it’s almost meatriding levels of support at this point. Hughes is a conservative, promising to protect farmers, crack down on illegal immigration, and crack down on healthcare fraud. Stewart is a standard Republican, focusing on improving public safety, strengthening infrastructure, and improving local education. He also touts his US Marine Corps background, but that might be a bit of a fib on his behalf. According to the Washington Examiner, Stewart enlisted in the Marine Corps in 1998 and was discharged in 2000, leaving before his service obligation was fulfilled. Why? It was because of what the Marines called “failure to participate,” with the Marines even saying that “the character of his service was incongruent with Marine Corps standards.” Stewart has defended himself, saying that he left due to a medical issue, but Gentry & Hughes (both military veterans themselves) have pounced on the issue. That’s probably because Stewart has a wide financial advantage over both of them going into election day. In the end, I think Hughes wins this one. He’s got name recognition from his time as Sumner County Commissioner and I think Stewart will be dogged by those military allegations.

HD-57 (Western Wilson County, Trump+33) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: video producer Matt Burchfield and businessman Heath Scott. Burchfield is a liberal, wanting to massively expand public transit in order to alleviate traffic congestion, stop “corporate welfare,” and expand funding for public education by cutting funds for school vouchers. Scott is running on a vague platform of standing up for working families, but has shared several pro-marijuana legalization posts on Facebook, so he supports that too. He really hasn’t been active on his social media pages, while Burchfield has been criss-crossing the district, which I think will ultimately lead to a Burchfield win here.

HD-59 (Southern Nashville outskirts, Harris+2.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Caleb Hemmer retiring, four Democrats are hoping to replace him in this ultra-competitive district: businessman Rick Ewing, businesswoman Angie Lawless, Tennessee State Trooper Mark Proctor, and nonprofit director Beth West.

Ewing is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding Medicaid, and expanding funding for public education. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Lawless is a liberal, wanting to expand access to childcare, expand Medicaid, and stop tax breaks for out-of-state corporations. She’s faced criticism for writing a character recommendation for a man named Cade Cothren, a former GOP operative who was convicted of campaign finance fraud and was pardoned by President Trump. Proctor is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, expand funding for public education, and crack down on gun violence. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Hemmer, former Governor Phil Bredesen, former TN-05 Congressman Bob Clement, former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, several state legislators/local elected officials, and the SEIU. West is also a standard Democrat, focusing on cracking down on gun violence, expanding funding for public education, and defending reproductive rights. She’s backed by State Representative Behn, State Representative/2024 US Senate nominee Gloria Johnson, and the Nashville Young Democrats. West and Proctor are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Ewing right behind them, and Lawless lagging behind all three of them. This one’s a pure toss-up between Proctor and West, with Ewing having an outside chance of winning. In the end, I think Proctor wins thanks to stronger institutional support than what West has.

HD-65 (Western Williamson County, Trump+34) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Lee Reeves is trying to fend off a primary challenge from attorney Michelle Foreman in this deeply Republican district. Reeves is a standard Republican, wanting to expand school choice, improve public health, and cut taxes. He’s backed by Governor Lee, Williamson County Mayor Rogers Anderson, several local elected officials, the NRA, and the Tennessee Right to Life group. Foreman is a conservative, wanting to “Make Tennessee Healthy Again,” defend “election integrity,” and crack down on illegal immigration. She also opposes school vouchers, an issue she’s attacked Reeves over. Reeves has a huge financial advantage over Foreman and has strong institutional support, so he should win this one.

HD-69 (Hickman/Lewis/western Dickson Counties, Trump+59) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican seat: teacher Van Harris and Lewis County Democratic Party Chairwoman Rachael Murray. Harris has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Murray is promising to “invest in people and invest in freedom,” which means nothing but is ultimately more of a campaign than whatever Harris is doing, so I’ll give the edge to Murray here.

HD-78 (Cheatham/eastern Dickson Counties, Trump+47) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Mary Littleton retiring, both parties have contested primaries to replace her in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republicans, who have two candidates running: former Pleasant View Mayor Perry Keenan and former Pegram Mayor John Louallen.

Keenan is mostly running on his record of community service, touting his efforts to lead community recovery efforts after disastrous flooding in 2010 and tornadoes in 2021, and helping elect TN-07 Congressman Matt Van Epps in the 2025 TN-07 special election. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Louallen is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and crack down on crime/illegal immigration. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials. Keenan has outpaced Louallen in the financial race. This one should be close, but I think Keenan wins thanks to better name recognition.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: teacher Hillary Capes-Gwinn and teacher Aniya Farmer. Capes-Gwinn wants to improve school quality, improve public safety, and support small businesses. Farmer is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, protect access to rural healthcare, and expand economic development. Neither candidate has raised money, so this one’s a pure toss-up. I guess I’ll go with Capes-Gwinn.

HD-80 (Hardeman County to Brownsville to Jackson, Harris+8) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Three Democrats are running to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Johnny Shaw in this Democratic-leaning district: Madison County Commissioner Shelia Godwin, businesswoman Andrea Bond Johnson, and Hardeman County Commissioner Bethany Miller.

Godwin (who ran for this seat in 2024 and lost to Shaw by over 50 points) is mostly running on her record in local government. Johnson is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, cut costs, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by several state legislators. Miller is running on a similar platform, promising to expand funding for public education, expand economic development, and expand access to affordable healthcare. Johnson has a solid financial advantage over Miller, with Godwin not raising any money. I think Johnson wins here thanks to her financial/institutional support, but Miller’s home of Hardeman County does cast the most votes in the primary, so it could push her to a win tonight.

HD-81 (Tipton/northern Haywood Counties, Trump+50.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Debra Moody retiring, two Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: Tennessee National Guard veteran Jason Fleming and Tipton County Commissioner Brett Giannini.

Fleming is a conservative, promising to fight for “faith and family,” defend “constitutional freedoms,” and strengthen public safety. Giannini is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, shrink the size of the government, and crack down on crime. He’s backed by a bunch of local elected officials and the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group. Fleming has outpaced Giannini in fundraising by a solid margin. I don’t think that’ll matter though and name recognition/institutional support gets Giannini the win here.

HD-84 (Southern Memphis, Harris+76) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Joe Towns is facing a primary challenge from political aide Kyler Gilkey in this deeply Democratic district.

Towns doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s probably not going to stay in the House whether wins or loses. Why? Well, he won the Democratic nomination for Shelby County Criminal Court Clerk earlier this year and is facing a Republican opponent tonight. He’s the huge favorite to win, so he’s not around for long here.

Could that give an opening to Gilkey? Maybe. He’s running as a standard Democrat, wanting to expand workforce development programs, raise teacher salaries, and expand community policing efforts. He’s backed by Memphis Mayor Paul Young, several state legislators/local elected officials, and the SEIU. Gilkey has outpaced the incumbent here (who really hasn’t campaigned for this race). I’ll go bold here and say Gilkey wins. I think voters know that Towns isn’t going to be representing the district anyway if he wins or loses and they get a jump on his replacement by giving Gilkey the win. I could be wrong and Towns wins thanks to incumbency/name recognition by already being on the ballot, but it’s a Thursday primary, LET’S GO BOLD!!!

HD-86 (Western Memphis, Harris+46) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Justin Pearson has become a bit of a hero to Tennessee Democrats for his outspoken activism, on and off the House floor. He’s running for Congress in the newly gerrymandered TN-09 (and was running before it was gerrymandered), but he’s also running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district. He’s facing a challenge from community activist/perennial candidate David Page. Just going off of his Congressional campaign, Pearson is a progressive, wanting to raise the minimum wage, tax the rich, and fight for medicare-for-all. Page is a moderate, promising to crack down on crime, foster “collaboration,” and improve community engagement. Pearson beat Page 93-7 in 2024, I’m expecting a similar number this year as Pearson wins this one in a landslide.

HD-91 (West-central Memphis, Harris+72) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Torrey Harris is facing a primary challenge from program manager Arriell Gipson-Martin in this deeply Democratic district. Harris is a progressive, wanting to raise the minimum wage, expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), and protect the environment. He’s backed by a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, several unions, and several progressive grassroots groups. Gipson-Martin is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand community investment, improve local infrastructure, and expand workforce development programs. Harris should win here thanks to incumbency/institutional support as neither candidate has raised much, if any, money.

HD-92 (Marshall/southern Williamson Counties, Trump+47) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Todd Warner is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Vincent Cuevas in this deeply Republican district. Warner (who is also running for TN-09) is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and crack down on illegal immigration. Cuevas is also a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose abortion, and support “parental choice” in education. He’s raised no money for his campaign and Warner seems way more focused on his race for Congress, so he’s obviously not worried here. As such, I think Warner wins this one.

HD-96 (North-central Memphis, Harris+47) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Gabby Salinas is facing a challenge from businesswoman Telisa Franklin in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district.

Salinas is a liberal, wanting to expand Medicaid, expand funding for public education, and raise the minimum wage. She’s backed by the Tennessee Education Association (Tennessee’s biggest teachers union) and several state legislators (including Illinois State Senator Karina Villa in the weirdest Illinois cameo I’ve seen so far in any state this year). Franklin is a moderate, wanting to crack down on crime, expand workforce development programs, and cut costs. She’s backed by Memphis Mayor Young, Shelby County Sheriff Floyd Bonner, several local elected officials, the Memphis Police union, and the Memphis Firefighters union. Salinas has a wide financial advantage over Franklin. With the general lean of how Democratic primary voters have been going this year (and having a strong financial advantage), I think Salinas beats back her moderate opponent and secures re-election.

HD-99 (Northeastern Shelby County, Trump+30) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Tom Leatherwood is trying to fend off a primary challenge from Shelby County Commissioner Amber Mills in this deeply Republican district.

Leatherwood is a conservative, touting his efforts to bring ICE to Memphis, cut taxes, and restrict abortion. He’s backed by Governor Lee, several local elected officials, the Memphis Police/Firefighters unions, and the Tennessee Right to Life group. Mills is mostly running on her record on the County Board of supporting veterans, standing with law enforcement, and stopping tax increases. Leatherwood has a slight financial advantage over Mills, but Mills has surprisingly kept pace in fundraising. I think Leatherwood wins here, but Mills has name recognition from the County Board and has held serve with the incumbent in fundraising, so I’m not counting her out.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back Saturday for an island vacation, because we’re covering all of the state legislative primaries going down in Hawaii! Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Michigan Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’re in the final stretch of state legislative primaries folks. Today, August 4th, marks the beginning of a seven week sprint of the final primaries of 2026. We’re kicking things off with a bang too, as four states are holding their primaries: Kansas, Missouri, Michigan, & Washington. We’ve already covered Kansas, Missouri, & Washington, so now we’re on to the biggest state of them all, Michigan! So, without further ado, let’s get to it!

SD-01 (Wyandotte to central Detroit, Harris+52) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Erika Geiss term-limited, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: former State Representative Abraham Aiyash and Detroit city Director of Entrepreneurship & Economic Opportunity Justin Onwenu.

Aiyash, who was the House Majority Leader until he retired in 2024, is a progressive. He’s promising to freeze utility hikes, cut auto insurance costs, and build more affordable housing. He’s backed by MI-12 Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Working Families Party, and several unions/progressive grassroots groups. Onwenu is a liberal, focusing on cutting costs, raising the minimum wage, and expanding funding for public transit. He’s backed by Detroit Mayor Mary Sheffield, Wayne County Executive Warren Evans, former MI-14 Congresswoman Brenda Lawrence, several local elected officials, and several unions. Aiyash has a slight financial advantage over Onwenu.

In some ways, you can compare this race to the Abdul El-Sayed/Haley Stevens race for US Senate. Aiyash (much like El-Sayed) is a progressive from the Detroit area who has been very outspoken on his support for the Palestinian people during the ongoing genocide in Garza. Also much like El-Sayed, he’s faced money from outside pro-Israel groups for that support for Palestine. According to Michigan Advance, over $100k of Onwenu’s money has come from AIPAC donors and Republicans. Onwenu has denied accepting money from AIPAC (knowing how toxic the group is in a Democratic primary), but Aiyash has pounced hard on the issue. With a progressive like El-Sayed on track to win by a solid margin tonight over Stevens, I think we’ll see a similar result here and Aiyash beats out Onwenu.

SD-02 (Dearborn/Dearborn Heights area, Trump+2.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running to succeed term-limited Democratic incumbent Sylvia Santana: State Representative Erin Byrnes and community organizer Abbas Alawieh. Before I start, I do want to mention the elephant in the room here, the Presidential topline. If you know anything about Michigan political/ethnic geography, this district is home to a LOT of Arabic voters. This is a demographic that heavily broke for the “Uncommitted” vote in the 2024 Democratic Presidential primary and either broke for Jill Stein or Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential election thanks to the Biden Administration’s handling of the Israeli invasion of Gaza. Now, I’m not going to get into any of the discourse surrounding that (I said my peace on it in the last entry, it’s a genocide), but it caused this district to swing from Biden+25 in 2020 to Trump+2.5 in 2024, with the district being a lot more Democratic friendly downballot.

Anyway, Byrnes is a progressive, wanting to raise wages to “living wages,” strengthen renter protections, and defend workers’ rights. She’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials (most from the non-Dearborn/Dearborn Heights portion of the district), the Sierra Club, and a few unions. Alawieh (who was a co-founder of the Uncommitted Movement in the 2024 primary) is also a progressive. He supports universal healthcare, protecting workers’ rights, and supporting senior services. He’s backed by US Senator Bernie Sanders, Governor Gretchen Whitmer, outgoing Senator Santana, Wayne County Executive Evans, Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, Dearborn Heights Mayor Mo Baydoun, several unions, the Working Families Party, and several progressive grassroots groups. Alawieh has a huge financial advantage over Byrnes. Alawieh should be the favorite to win here, which (as far as I’m aware) would make him the first ever Muslim State Senator in Michigan history (if he wins in November). Just a very impressive campaign (getting Bernie and Whitmer on the same side is crazy) to hand what looks like a sound defeat to a sitting state legislator (who represents Dearborn Heights in the House).

SD-03 (Hamtramck/Highland Park/eastern Detroit, Harris+77) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Stephanie Chang term-limited, it’s a mess of a primary to replace her in this deeply Democratic district. In total, 11(!) candidates are running here: US Army veteran Mohammad Alam, businessman John Conyers III, nonprofit director LeJuan Council, former State Representative LaTanya Garrett, political aide Korey Hall, businesswoman Kimberly Hill Knott, former State Senator Adam Hollier, photojournalist Gary Hunter, economist Toinu Reeves, businessman Abraham Shaw, and nonprofit director Eboni Taylor.

Alam has no campaign presence online (outside of a few Facebook posts from the “Bangladeshi American Political Caucus” showing AI people supporting him) and hasn’t raised any money. You would think Conyers III would be a more high-profile candidate (being the son of the legendary Congressman of the same name), but he really hasn’t broken out of the field. He’s running on a standard Democratic platform, wanting to cut costs, expand economic development, and expand educational opportunities. He also hasn’t updated any of his campaign social media pages since April, so how seriously is he even taking this race? Council is a liberal, focusing on expanding funding for public education, protecting housing stability, and fighting for “environmental justice.” Garrett has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money for her campaign. Hall (who worked for Governor Whitmer) is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public safety, expand educational opportunity, and expand economic development. He’s backed by Governor Whitmer, US Senator Gary Peters, former US Senator Debbie Stabenow, Wayne County Executive Evans, several state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions. Knott is a standard Democrat, promising to support senior services, cut insurance costs, and expand access to childcare. Hollier is a progressive, supporting universal childcare, establishing public-owned housing, and establishing free universal transit. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials and a few unions. Hunter calls himself “The People’s Fighter,” promising to fight “slum landlords,” improve fraud protection for seniors, and improve local education. Reeves is a liberal, wanting to improve local infrastructure, strengthen tenant protections, and expand access to affordable housing. Shaw is a progressive, wanting to raise wages to “living wages,” expand community policing efforts, and raise taxes on corporations. Finally, Taylor is a progressive, supporting universal school lunches/breakfast, raising taxes on the rich, and expanding access to childcare. She’s backed by outgoing Senator Chang, US Senator Sanders, MI-12 Congresswoman Tlaib, Hamtramck Mayor Adam Alharbi, and several local elected officials. Off topic, but it’s pretty interesting that the Mayors of both Dearborn Heights & Hamtramck (two heavily Arabic cities) both replaced Trump-supporting Mayors with progressive-endorsing Mayors.

Reeves takes first place in the financial race, with Hollier barely edging out Taylor for second place, Hall lagging behind them, and Knott not raising a ton. Everyone else here has raised ZERO dollars for their campaigns. As to who will win this clown car of a primary, it’s a pure toss-up. Every Michigan person I’ve asked has pretty much given me the same answer: It’s a crapshoot with the winner almost certainly getting 20-30% of the vote. I have to pick a winner though, so I’ll go with Hollier thanks to his name recognition from his previous term in the Senate. Any of the Hollier/Reeves/Taylor/Hall group can win this though.

SD-06 (Redford/western Detroit, Harris+78) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Mary Cavanagh has a primary challenger in the form of consultant Stephen Jensen in this deeply Democratic district. Cavanagh is a progressive, supporting universal pre-K, expanding paid sick leave, and expanding access to healthcare. She’s backed by MI-12 Congresswoman Tlaib, Detroit Mayor Sheffield, several local elected officials, and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and the United Auto Workers). Jensen has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Cavanagh should win this one easily.

SD-07 (Pontiac to Southfield, Harris+36) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Jeremy Moss term-limited/running for MI-11, a spirited three-way Democratic primary has emerged to replace him in this deeply Democratic district. The three Democrats running are: State Representative Jason Hoskins, businesswoman Shadia Martini, and doctor Rakesh Ramakrishnan.

Hoskins is a liberal, wanting to expand access to public education, defend voting rights, and cut prescription drug costs. He’s backed by Governor Whitmer, outgoing Senator Moss, a bunch of local elected officials, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the United Auto Workers). Martini is a progressive, heavily opposing data centers, promising to keep ICE out of the area, and promising to protect the environment. She’s backed by several local elected officials. Ramakrishnan is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut healthcare costs, expand funding for public education, and cut red tape for small businesses. Ramakrishnan leads the three in fundraising, with Martini behind him, and Hoskins behind both of them. Despite that, I think Hoskins’s strong institutional support/name recognition from his time in the State House gets him the win here.

SD-09 (Rochester Hills to western Sterling Heights, Trump+5) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Three Democrats are running for the party nod to challenge Republican incumbent Michael Webber in this ultra-competitive district: Oakland County Commissioner Brendan Johnson, Troy City Councilwoman Theresa Brooks, and attorney Ren Nushaj.

Johnson is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, expand funding for public education, and expand economic development. He’s backed by Oakland County Executive Dave Coulter, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the United Auto Workers). Brooks is also a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding funding for public education, and protecting access to healthcare. She’s backed by Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist, several state legislators/local elected officials, EMILY’s List, and the Detroit Free Press. Nushaj is a progressive, promising to fight for universal healthcare, raise the minimum wage, and oppose data centers. He’s backed by Michigan’s largest teacher’s union, the Michigan Education Association, and a few local elected officials. He also touts the fact that he’s an “anti-AIPAC” candidate. Nushaj has a wide advantage in fundraising, with Brooks lagging behind him, and Johnson lagging further behind them both. I think the establishment vote split here allows Nushaj to win, but I’m not counting out either Johnson or Brooks given their strong institutional support.

SD-10 (Royal Oak/western Warren area, Harris+30.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Paul Wojno term-limited, three Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: State Representative Natalie Price, nonprofit official Amanda Treppa, and businessman Mark Anthony Murphy.

Price is a progressive, promising to fight for single-payer healthcare, defend workers’ rights, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by Oakland County Executive Coulter, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, the Sierra Club, the Detroit Free Press, and several unions (most notably the United Auto Workers). Treppa is also a progressive, supporting single-payer healthcare, promising to defend workers’ rights, and wanting to protect the local environment. She’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials, the Working Families Party, and several unions. Murphy is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, expand access to workforce development programs, and improve public safety. Price leads Treppa in fundraising, but Treppa has outpaced her in spending, with Murphy raising no money. This one’s going to be close, but I think Price’s name recognition from her time in the State House ultimately gets her the win.

SD-11 (Eastern Sterling Heights/Warren area, Harris+3) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic opponent Veronica Klinefelt has two opponents in tonight’s Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district: musician Joseph Hunt and businesswoman Alysha Johnson. Klinefelt is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, expand access to early childhood education, and defend voting rights. She’s backed by several local elected officials and a bunch of unions (most notably the United Auto Workers). Hunt is a weird dude. He sued singer Alanis Morisette a few years ago, claiming that he helped write Morisette’s 1995 smash hit album Jagged Little Pill. The case was thrown out in court, but this is how he describes it on his website:

That’s all he’s running on too, it’s crazy! Anyway, Johnson is a standard Democrat. She wants to expand funding for youth empowerment programs, expand access to childcare, and cut costs. Neither of Klinefelt’s opponents have raised money, so she’ll almost certainly be forcing her opponents to be swallowing a bitter (and or jagged) little pill of defeat tonight.

SD-12 (Eastern Macomb County to eastern Detroit outskirts, Trump+7) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

On paper, this is the most Trump-favored district to be held by a Democrat in the Michigan Senate, with Democratic incumbent Kevin Hertel winning it by just 0.4% in 2022:

(Credit to yours truly)

Now, five Republicans are running to challenge him in November: teacher Joseph Backus, US Army veteran Patrick Shawn Biange, businessman John Goldwater, former Algonac Mayor Eillen Tesch, and businesswoman Shelley Wright.

Backus is a standard Republican, wanting to create community colleges for first responders, cut vacation taxes, and expand access to energy production. Biange (who ran for the legislature as a Democrat five previous times) has no campaign presence online and has raised no money for his campaign. Goldwater is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting taxes, cracking down on crime, and protecting Lake Saint Clair. He’s backed by several Republican Senators and The Detroit News. Tesch is a conservative, promising to protect the local environment, establish a Michigan version of the Department of Government Efficiency (without calling it DOGE, because it’s toxic), and cut taxes. Wright is a standard Republican, promising to protect senior services, expand school choice, and bring back manufacturing jobs. She’s backed by MI-09 Congresswoman Lisa McClain and Macomb County Chairman Joe Sabatini. Wright leads the five in fundraising, with Goldwater edging out Tesch for second place, and Backus/Biange not raising any money. I’ll give the advantage to Wright here given her strong institutional support.

SD-13 (Central/western Oakland County, Trump+2) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Rosemary Bayer retired rather than seek re-election in this ultra-competitive district. That might have been thanks to court-ordered redistricting (which redrew almost the entire metro Detroit map) turning her district from a Harris+10 one to a Trump+2 one. Three Democrats are running to replace her: Deputy Oakland County Executive Sean Carlson, businessman Cecil George, and businessman DC Anderson.

Carlson is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, expand funding for public education, and support small businesses. He’s backed by outgoing Senator Bayer, Oakland County Executive/his boss Coulter, several state legislators/local elected officials, VoteVets, the Detroit Free Press and The Detroit News, and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and the United Auto Workers). George is a liberal, focusing on protecting access to water, stopping data centers, and expanding economic development. Anderson is a liberal, wanting to expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), stop data centers, and improve local education. Neither of Carlson’s opponents have raised much (if any) money, so Carlson (with his over $300k war chest) should be the heavy favorite here.

SD-15 (Southern Washtenaw County, Harris+43) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Jeff Irwin term-limited, two Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: former State Representative Felicia Brabec and nonprofit director Michael White.

Brabec is a liberal, wanting to expand access to mental healthcare, fight for racial equity in healthcare, and crack down on gun violence. She’s backed by a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, the Sierra Club, and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and the United Auto Workers). White is a progressive, promising to defend workers’ rights, fight for universal healthcare, and establish a universal childcare program. Brabec has a huge financial advantage over White and that (combined with institutional support/name recognition) should push her to a win. White should be able to get some progressive votes from people who don’t think Brabec is left-wing enough though.

SD-17 (Southern Berrien County to eastern Calhoun County, Trump+30) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Three Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: community organizer Ashleigh Baker, warehouse associate Mike Jones, and farmer Brett Muchow. Baker is a progressive, wanting to raise the minimum wage to $17/hour, expand funding for public education, and pass universal healthcare. Jones has no campaign presence online (outside of a website that has nothing about his campaign on it) and has raised no money for his campaign. Muchow is a progressive, wanting to establish a single-payer healthcare system, oppose data centers, and get money out of politics. Speaking of money, Muchow is the only candidate here to raise any of it. Because of that, I think he wins this one.

SD-20 (Northern Berrien County to southern Kent County, Trump+16.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent/Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt term-limited/briefly running for Governor, three Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: US Army veteran Curtis Clark, former Allegan County Republican Party Chairman Kenny Clevenger, and attorney Chris Moraitis.

Clark is a right-winger, promising to crack down on illegal immigration, defund the US Department of Education, and blow off any notions that climate change may be caused by man. Clevenger is a conservative, promising to repeal the state income tax, introduce a Michigan version of the Department of Government Efficiency, and crack down on “fraud and waste.” He’s backed by a bunch of local elected officials. Moraitis is also a conservative, wanting to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and fix the roads. He’s backed by a bunch of local elected officials, the Fraternal Order of Police, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Moraitis has a solid financial advantage over Clevenger, with Clark not raising any money. I think Moraitis should be the favorite here, with an outside chance of Clevenger winning thanks to a big win from Allegan County.

SD-23 (Northern Oakland County, Trump+23) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Jim Runestad term-limited, both parties have contested primaries to replace him in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republicans, who have two candidates running: State Representative Donni Steele and businessman Daniel Lawless.

Steele is a standard Republican, promising to stand with law enforcement, improve local education, and support small businesses. She’s backed by MI-10 Congressman/gubernatorial candidate John James, Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, a bunch of local elected officials, the Fraternal Order of Police, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, and the Michigan Farm Bureau. Lawless is running as a conservative outsider, promising to eliminate the state income tax, remove “woke ideology” from classrooms, and stop data centers. Steele has a wide financial advantage here and should be the favorite. It’s a very shrewd political move from Steele too, as she abandoned her re-election bid for State House in her Trump+1 district to move up to the State Senate in a Trump+23 district. That, my friends, is big brain political instincts.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: businesswoman Margarette Gupta and businessman Greg Hill. Gupta has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money for her campaign. Hill is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, lower insurance rates, and build more housing. I’ll give the edge to Hill here by virtue of being the only candidate to raise money.

SD-24 (Northern Macomb County, Trump+27.5) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent/former Secretary of State Ruth Johnson term-limited, both parties have contested primaries to replace her in this deeply Republican district. On the Republican side, two candidates are running: State Representative Doug Wozniak and former State Representative Terence Mekoski.

Wozniak is a standard Republican, promising to protect senior services, balance the budget, and eliminate state property taxes. He’s backed by several state legislators and a bunch of local elected officials. Mekoski is running on a similar platform, promising to crack down on corruption, improve public safety, and oppose “reckless spending.” Wozniak has a solid financial advantage over Mekoski. Combine that with institutional support/name recognition, I think Wozniak should win this one.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: psychologist Edlira Sako and businessman Frank Borsellino. Sako is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs and expanding funding for public education. Borsellino is a progressive, wanting to raise the minimum wage to $20/hour, stop data centers, and oppose foreign wars. Neither candidate has raised much money here, so this is a pure toss-up. I’ll go with Borsellino to win solely because he’s the only candidate with a website.

SD-25 (Eastern Michigan, Trump+37) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Three Republicans are running to replace term-limited Republican incumbent Dan Lauwers in this deeply Republican district: former State Representative Andrew Beeler, former State Representative Gary Eisen, and farmer Randy Schultz. A fourth candidate, ghost candidate John Mahaney, is technically on the ballot, but he withdrew from the race a little bit ago.

Beeler is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and expand school choice. He also touts the fact that he’s the only candidate in the race to vote against data centers. He’s backed by the Michigan Farm Bureau. Eisen has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Schultz is a conservative, promising to repeal the state income tax, defend the 2nd Amendment, and defend “election integrity.” He’s backed by the anti-abortion Michigan Right to Life group and the United Auto Workers. Beeler has a wide financial advantage over Schultz and should be able to use that (alongside name recognition from his time in the State House) to get the win tonight.

SD-26 (Lapeer County to southern Saginaw County, Trump+27) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries to replace term-limited Republican incumbent Kevin Daley in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republicans, who have five candidates running: businessman Daltson Atwell, State Representative Matt Bierlein, former Saginaw County Commissioner James Graham, US Army veteran Gabriel Lossing, and Burton City Councilwoman Candice Miller.

Atwell is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, crack down on crime, and keep “political ideologies” out of classrooms. Bierlein is also a standard Republican, wanting to improve government transparency, cut taxes, and support small businesses. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials, the Fraternal Order of Police, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Graham (who ran for State House as a Democrat in 2020) has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Lossing is a conservative, promising to defend farmers, stop data centers, and stop foreign land ownership in Michigan. He’s backed by outgoing Senator Daley, the Michigan Right to Life group, and several local elected officials. Miller has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Speaking of money, Atwell leads the field in that category, with Bierlein behind him, and Lossing further behind them. I’ll give the advantage to Bierlein here given that he has the best institutional support and name recognition among the field.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: Genesee County Commissioner Martin Cousineau and community activist Brendan Johnson. Cousineau is a moderate, mostly running on his experience in local government and promising to fight for “fiscal responsibility.” He’s backed by several unions (most notably the United Auto Workers). Johnson wants to cut insurance costs, expand funding for public education, and improve local infrastructure. Cousineau has a huge financial advantage here and has a name recognition advantage by virtue of being a local elected official. As such, he’s the heavy favorite to win.

SD-28 (Clinton/Shiawassee/northern Ingham Counties, Harris+9.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Sam Singh retiring, four Democrats are running to replace him in this solidly Democratic district: college professor Rashida Harrison, Michigan State Administrative Office official Ted Kilvington, Ingham County Commissioner Robert Pena, and Ingham County Commissioner Mark Polsdofer.

Harrison is a progressive, promising to oppose “corporate welfare,” raise the minimum wage to a “living wage,” and protect undocumented families from the Trump Administration. Kilvington is a liberal, promising to protect civil rights, defend workers’ rights, and expand renewable energy production. Pena has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Polsdofer is mostly running on his record on the Ingham County Board, touting his efforts to secure paid parental leave, crack down on gun violence, and improve local infrastructure. He’s backed by Senator Singh, Lansing Mayor Andy Schor, several state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions. He’s also the only candidate to have raised money, so he should win this one.

SD-29 (Southern Grand Rapids area, Harris+26) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent/Majority Leader Winnie Brinks term-limited, three Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: State Representative Phil Skaggs, former Kent County Commissioner Ivan Diaz, and East Grand Rapids City Commissioner Abbie Groff-Blaszak.

Skaggs is a progressive, wanting to raise the minimum wage, fight for universal healthcare, and establish a paid family medical/sick leave program. He’s backed by Governor Whitmer, Secretary of State/gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson, State Attorney General Dana Nessel, Grand Rapids Mayor David LaGrand, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, and a bunch of unions (most notably the United Auto Workers and the Michigan Education Association). Diaz is a democratic socialist, promising to defend workers’ rights, establish a single-payer healthcare system, and remove the statewide ban on rent control. Groff-Blaszak is a progressive, focusing on raising the minimum wage, repealing Michigan’s ban on rent control, and establishing a single-payer healthcare system. She’s backed by several local elected officials. Skaggs and Groff-Blaszak are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Diaz lagging far behind them. I’ll give the advantage to Skaggs here thanks to his strong institutional support, though Groff-Blaszak has run a pretty good campaign, keeping herself in this race.

SD-30 (Northern Grand Rapids area, Harris+4.5) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are aiming for the party nod to challenge Republican incumbent Mark Huizenga in this ultra-competitive district: State Representative Carol Glanville and nonprofit director Rickie Kreuzer. Glanville is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding funding for public education, cutting costs, and strengthening access to healthcare. She’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials, EMILY’s List, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the United Auto Workers and the Michigan Education Association). Kreuzer is a liberal, wanting to expand access to childcare, raise taxes on the rich, and expand funding for public education. Huizenga has a ginormous financial advantage over Kreuzer and has the establishment behind her, so she’s the huge favorite here.

SD-31 (Ottawa County, Trump+18.5) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries to replace term-limited Republican incumbent Roger Victory in this solidly Republican district. Starting with the Republicans, who have three candidates running: businessman Kevin Maas, businessman Michael Markey, and businessman John Wetzel.

Maas is a christian nationalist, promising to base every policy on “biblical truth and Christian values,” crack down on crime, and ban abortion. He says every baby has a “right to a pulse,” but what does that even mean? Like, if a baby is aborted before a heartbeat is detected, is that now murder? Why am I asking that, it almost definitely is under Maas’s far-right worldview. Markey (who ran for MI-03 in 2024) is a conservative, wanting to create a Michigan version of the Department of Government Efficiency, defend “parental rights” in education, and cut taxes. He’s backed by former Governor John Engler and several state legislators/local elected officials. Wetzel is also a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose abortion, and defend “election integrity.” He’s backed by the Michigan Right to Life group and several state legislators/local elected officials. Markey has a wide lead in fundraising, with Wetzel lagging behind him, and Maas lagging even further behind them. I think Markey wins here thanks to his financial advantage and better institutional support than Wetzel.

On the Democratic side, college student Keagan Host and former Ottawa County Commissioner Chris Kleinjans are competing for the party nod. Host wants to crack down on price gouging, introduce more sales tax holidays, and fight against data centers. Kleinjans is a standard Democrat, promising to build more housing, cut costs, and improve public safety. He’s backed by the Michigan Firefighters union. He has a huge financial advantage over Host and should be able to use that (alongside name recognition from his time in local government) to get the win.

SD-32 (Western Michigan, Trump+7) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running to replace term-limited Republican incumbent Jon Bumstead in this Republican-leaning district: Mason County Sheriff Kim Cole and US Army veteran Max Riekse.

Cole is a standard Republican, promising to improve public safety, cut taxes, and protect local natural resources. He’s backed by the NRA, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Riekse doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. As such, Cole should win this one easily.

SD-33 (Lake County to Ionia County, Trump+35) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Rick Outman term-limited, four Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Kent County Commissioner Katie DeBoer, State Representative Joseph Fox, State Representative Gina Johnsen, and US Army veteran Tom Norton.

DeBoer is a right-winger, promising to defend “religious liberty,” stop “critical race theory” in schools, and defend “medical freedom.” Yeah, she’s got a lot of sections on her website dedicated to complaining about COVID-19 restrictions, because 2026 is the new 2020 to people still stuck in 2020. She’s backed by Kent County Sheriff Michelle LaJoye-Young and several other local elected officials. Fox is a Christian nationalist, promising to support a “Biblical view” regarding marriage and sexuality, defend “freedom,” and oppose secularism and atheism. Johnsen is a conservative, promising to stop “racist curriculum like CRT and DEI,” protect farmers, and expand economic development. She’s backed by outgoing Senator Outman, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, several Republican-aligned special interest groups, and musician/conservative activist/pedophile Ted Nugent. Norton (who has run for Congress multiple times in this area) is a conservative, focusing on opposing abortion, defending the 2nd Amendment, and defending “election integrity.” He’s backed by Attorney General nominee Doug Lloyd and Trump lackey Roger Stone. Johnsen leads the four in fundraising, with DeBoer lagging behind her, Fox right behind DeBoer, and Norton lagging behind in last place. This one’s a pure toss-up, as I could see either DeBoer, Fox, or Johnsen winning. I’ll ultimately give the edge to Johnsen though, solely based on her financial advantage and strong institutional support.

SD-34 (Central Michigan, Trump+31) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Roger Hauck is facing a primary challenge from Michigan Independent Redistricting Commissioner Rhonda Lange in this deeply Republican district. Hauck is a standard Republican, promising to cut healthcare costs, cut taxes, and defend “election integrity.” Lange is a conservative, focusing on prioritizing the Constitution, advancing “Constitutional Carry,” and eliminating property taxes. She’s backed by a few local elected officials. She hasn’t raised much money for her campaign though, so Hauck’s incumbency should get him the win. As for Lange, well, she’s not the only member of the Michigan Independent Redistricting Commission to run for the state legislature this year. More on that in a bit…

SD-35 (Saginaw/Midland/Bay City area, Harris+0.5) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

I know May 2026 feels like forever ago, but please flash back to it. Specifically May 5th, 2026. That was when a special election for this ultra-competitive took place. The result? Well…

(Me, my map)

A landslide loss for the Republicans to Democratic firefighter Chedrick Greene. Now, the Democrats did benefit from turnout differential, but even if turnout was even, it still would have been a bad loss for the GOP. Now, the Republicans have a chance to win the seat in November, but they’ll have to pick between two candidates tonight: businessman/special election nominee Jason Tunney and conservative activist Chadwick Twillman. Tunney is a conservative, wanting to expand school choice, bring back Michigan’s “Right-to-Work” status, and cut taxes. That second plank is probably partially why Tunney performed so badly against a heavily union-backed candidate in Greene in May. Twillman is a right-winger, promising to ban Sharia law, put the Bible in schools, and ban “AI mind control.” Tunney has a huge financial advantage over Twillman and easily defeated him in the special election primary, so he should win this one.

SD-37 (Northern Michigan, Trump+11) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this solidly Republican district: Traverse City Commissioner Mitchell Treadwell and teacher Kate Gallup. Treadwell is a standard Democrat, mostly focusing on improving local infrastructure, investing in public transit, and wanting to expand tourism. He hasn’t raised any money for his campaign, but he’s been a very interesting guy to follow on Twitter (he’s a friend of Election Twitter). Namely about his observations regarding the US Senate primary. Gallup is a liberal, wanting to cut costs, build more affordable housing, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by Planned Parenthood and Run For Something. Gallup should be the favorite here given that Treadwell hasn’t really run an active campaign (if Mitchell is reading this, I am personally rooting for you because we need more friends of Election Twitter in office).

SD-38 (Upper Peninsula, Trump+18) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Ed McBroom term-limited, two Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: State Representative David Prestin and former State Representative Beau LaFave.

Prestin is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and get “politics and CRT” out of the classroom. He’s backed by outgoing Senator McBroom, the other two State Representatives on the Upper Peninsula (Karl Bohnak and Gregory Markkanen), the Fraternal Order of Police, and musician/conservative activist/pedophile Ted Nugent. LaFave is also a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, defend property rights, and stand up to Democratic leaders (namely touting his time beefing with Governor Whitmer over COVID restrictions). He’s backed by MI-01 Congressman Jack Bergman. Prestin has a solid financial advantage over LaFave. I think Prestin wins this one thanks to stronger institutional support, but LaFave is a conservative grassroots favorite, so he should not be counted out.

HD-01 (Ecorse/River Rouge/southwestern Detroit, Harris+58.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Tyrone Carter has two opponents in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: filmmaker Teddy Dorsette and community activist Jermaine Tobey. Carter is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve local education, expand access to affordable healthcare, and improve local infrastructure. Dorsette, who is deaf, is mostly running on a campaign of improving accessibility, strengthening disability rights, and supporting neighborhood development. Despite the vague platform, He’s backed by the Michigan Democratic Party’s Disability Caucus. Tobey is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public education, increase “accountability” for corporate welfare, and improve government transparency. Carter has a huge financial advantage over his two opponents and has incumbency on his side, so he should win this one.

HD-02 (Lincoln Park/Allen Park/Melvindale, Harris+1) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Democratic incumbent Tullio Liberati retiring, both parties have contested primaries to replace him in this ultra-competitive district. Starting with the Democrats, who have three candidates running to replace him: former State Representative/Tullio’s brother Frank Liberati, Allen Park City Councilman Gary Schlack, and hospital chaplain Joanna Whaley.

Liberati is a moderate, promising to expand access to healthcare, improve government transparency, and “rise above” partisan politics and focus on “results, not talking.” Schlack is also a moderate, wanting to expand funding for law enforcement, cut costs, and improve local infrastructure. He’s backed by several local elected officials and The Detroit News. I’ve said it before, but Whaley might be the most interesting candidate on any level (federal or state) this year. She was an evangelical megachurch pastor before realizing that she was a transgender woman. As she began to consider transitioning, she was fired from her job and became a transgender rights-activist. An inspiring story, but it’s also led to some weaponization against her on behalf of Liberati, who tried doing this to her:

(Michigan Advance)

Liberati was smacked down both in court and by prominent Democrats for doing this, earning Whaley a lot of attention in the process. As for her campaign, she’s running as a liberal. She wants to cut utility costs, expand access to healthcare, and expand community policing efforts. She’s backed by DE-At Large Congresswoman Sarah McBride, several state legislators/local elected officials, Our Revolution, the Detroit Free Press, and a few unions. Whaley leads the three in fundraising, but Schlack has slightly outpaced her in spending. This one’s going to be close, but I’ll be bold and say Whaley wins thanks to the moderate vote splitting between Liberati and Schlack.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: businessman/2024 nominee Ronald Kokinda and businessman Zacharia Ortiz. Kokinda calls himself an “America First Trump Republican” who proudly touts his support for the LaRouche Movement. If you don’t know about Lyndon LaRouche and his movement, it’s a long and complicated story, but essentially he’s an insane right-wing conspiracy theorist who somehow managed to influence a surprisingly large number of people. You might be saying “Chris, that sounds like a cult.” Yes, it kind of does! Anyway, Kokinda wants to end “green energy mandates,” end “Critical Race Theory,” and crack down on illegal immigration to free up the housing market (*EXTREMELY WRONG INCORRECT BUTTON*). He also supports data centers, which is probably the first candidate I’ve seen in Michigan to actively say that. Ortiz is a conservative, promising to defend “faith and family values,” cut taxes, and crack down on crime. That last one’s funny, because Ortiz was arrested in 2016 for recruiting clients to a mortgage fraud ring. Truly a dealer’s choice of insane candidates for the GOP here. Kokinda’s the only candidate to raise money and has name recognition from 2024, so he should win.

HD-03 (Eastern Dearborn, Trump+5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Alabas Farhat has two opponents in the primary tonight: businessman Othman Alaansi and businessman Hussein Berry. Again, this district’s Presidential topline is a bit scuttled thanks to the Arab vote here (with the district backing Biden by 53 points in 2020), but Farhat easily outran the topline here in 2024:

(Map by me)

Farhat is mostly running on his legislative record, touting his efforts to secure investments in the community, pass gun control, and support workers’ rights. He’s backed by Dearborn Mayor Hammoud. Alaansi is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut insurance costs, improve public health, and get money out of politics. Berry is also a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting utility costs, cutting prescription drug costs, and building more housing. Farhat has a huge financial advantage over his two opponents, which should lead him to victory.

HD-04 (Western Detroit, Harris+86) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Karen Whitsett (finally) retiring after years of giving every Detroit Democrat headaches (different story for a different time), four Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: nonprofit director Krystal Larsosa, political aide Anthony Stafford McDonald, police officer Tyus Monroe, and teacher Regina Ross.

Larsosa is running as a standard Democrat, focusing on supporting senior services, expanding community safety, and expanding funding for public education. McDonald has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Monroe is a standard Democrat, promising to strengthen public safety, expand economic development, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by the United Auto Workers. Ross is also a standard Democrat, wanting to expand workforce development programs, expand economic development, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by former State House Speaker Joe Tate, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, and several unions. Larsosa leads the pack in fundraising, with no other candidate raising money. Despite that, I think Ross wins here thanks to strong institutional support.

HD-05 (Oak Park/northwestern Detroit, Harris+76) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Regina Weiss retiring, three Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: former school board member Crystal Bailey, nonprofit director Candace Calloway, and community activist Soummer Moore-Crawford.

Bailey is a standard Democrat, promising to expand access to mental healthcare, hold gun companies “accountable” for gun violence, and cut insurance costs. She’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials, the Detroit Free Press, and the United Auto Workers. Calloway is also a standard Democrat, promising to cut insurance costs, improve education standards, and improve local infrastructure. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Weiss, Detroit Mayor Sheffield, Oak Park Mayor Marian McClellan, several local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the Michigan Education Association). Moore-Crawford is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve accessibility, expand access to affordable housing, and support small businesses. Calloway and Bailey are neck-and-neck in the financial department. Pure toss-up here, but I think Calloway’s institutional support ultimately pushes her over the finish line.

HD-06 (Royal Oak area, Harris+32) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Natalie Price retiring in order to run for State Senate, three Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: businesswoman Charlie Gandy-Thompson, nonprofit official David Lauer, and former Royal Oak City Commissioner Melanie Macey.

Gandy-Thompson is running on a vague platform of creating “efficient, responsible, and forward-thinking plans” for the district. Lauer is a liberal, focusing on expanding funding for public education, expanding access to healthcare (calling it a human right), and fighting for “environmental justice.” He’s backed by several local elected officials and the Michigan Education Association. Macey is a liberal, focusing on cutting costs, defending voting rights, and protecting the environment. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Price, Oakland County Executive Coulter, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Detroit Free Press and The Detroit News, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the United Auto Workers). Macey has a slight fundraising advantage over Lauer, but Lauer has easily outpaced her in spending. Despite that, I actually think Macey wins here thanks to her stronger institutional support.

HD-07 (Hamtramck/Highland Park/north-central Detroit, Harris+57) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY:

Democratic incumbent Tonya Phillips has two opponents in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: nonprofit official Seena Ahmad and community activist Oliver Gantt.

Phillips is a progressive, promising to expand paid sick leave, fight for “housing justice,” and fight for “environmental justice.” She’s backed by MI-12 Congresswoman Tlaib, Detroit Mayor Sheffield, doctor/US Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Detroit Free Press & The Detroit News, and a bunch of unions (most notably the United Auto Workers and the Michigan Education Association). Ahmad is also a progressive, wanting to repeal the state ban on rent control, raise the minimum wage to $21/hour, and expand access to healthcare. Gantt wants to fight for criminal justice reform and expand access to mental healthcare. Phillips and Ahmad are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Gantt raising no money. This one’s pretty much going to come down to if Ahmad gets a big enough win out of Hamtramck in order to offset Phillips’s wins in Detroit/Highland Park. She’s backed by a few big wigs in Hamtramck, so it’s possible (and would be a big win for the Bangladeshi community there), but I don’t think it’ll happen and Phillips will get the win.

HD-08 (West-central Detroit, Harris+77) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Democratic incumbent Helena Scott has three opponents in tonight’s Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district: community organizer Deanne Austin, progressive activist Chris Gilmer-Hill, and progressive activist Fedor Kinaya.

Scott is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, improve public safety, and expand economic development. She’s backed by Governor Whitmer, Lieutenant Governor Gilchrist, Secretary of State Benson, Warren County Executive Evans, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the United Auto Workers). Austin is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, improve public transit, and protect reproductive rights. Gilmer-Hill is a democratic socialist, wanting to establish a public-owned utility service, fight for single-payer healthcare, and get corporate money out of Michigan politics. He’s backed by MI-12 Congresswoman Tlaib, Doctor/US Senate candidate El-Sayed, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Working Families Party, the Sierra Club, the Democratic Socialists of America, and the SEIU. Kinaya is a progressive, promising to cut utility costs, defend workers’ rights, and build more affordable housing. Gilmer-Hill leads the pack in fundraising, but Scott and Austin are hot on his tail. With the left-wing vote being split three ways (and Scott having strong institutional support), I think Scott holds on and wins here. However, I could definitely see Gilmer-Hill winning, that should definitely not be discounted as a possibility.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: social worker Tonya Wells and ghost candidate Bruce Langran. Neither have any campaign presence online and haven’t raised any money, so this is a pure toss-up. I’ll give the edge to Wells.

HD-09 (Central Detroit, Harris+84) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent/former State House Speaker Joe Tate retiring, nine Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: Detroit Police Commissioner Willie Burton, Michigan Independent Redistricting Commission Chairman Anthony Eid, nonprofit director Darryl Ervin, community activist Arthur Harrington, social worker Bryant Hepp, businessman Kariem Holman, nonprofit director Toni Mua, community organizer Rick Silva, and ghost candidate Patricia Hurt.

Burton is a standard Democrat, promising to make property taxes “fairer,” cut energy costs, and expand access to mental healthcare. He’s backed by the Teamsters. Eid is a liberal, wanting to build more affordable housing, expand funding for public education, and improve public transit. Ervin is a progressive, focusing on cutting utility costs, fighting for universal pre-K, and defending workers’ rights. In the strangest endorsement in the state, he’s backed by former US Congressman Dick Gephardt. Yeah, the former House Minority Leader who hasn’t had any connection to Democratic politics in over two decades just randomly endorsed a candidate for State House in Michigan. Weird, but cool. Harrington is a liberal, wanting to expand investments in the community (to tackle the root causes of crime), raise wages, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by Wayne County Executive Evans, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus, and the Detroit Firefighters union. Hepp is a progressive, wanting to establish a land value tax, pass Medicare-for-All, and end auto insurance-redlining. Holman is mostly running on fighting for “environmental justice,” but his only campaign blurb on his website is clearly written by AI. Mua is a liberal, promising to expand funding for public education, ensure “living wages,” and defend the LGBTQ+ community. She’s backed by the Michigan Democratic Party Progressive Caucus. Silva is a progressive, focusing on raising wages, establishing universal pre-K, and fighting for universal healthcare. He’s backed by the Detroit Free Press and the Michigan Education Association. Hurt has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money.

On the financial side, Silva leads the nine in fundraising, with Harrington behind him, Ervin lagging behind both of them, Hepp & Eid not raising much money, and everyone else not raising any money. Much like SD-03, this one’s a clown-car primary with no clear favorite. I have to pick a winner though, so I’ll go with Harrington thanks to his strong institutional support.

HD-10 (Eastern Detroit area, Harris+38) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Veronica Paiz has two opponents in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: Harper Woods Library Board member Andrew Cyburt and businessman Ryan Nelson. Paiz is mostly running on her legislative record, touting her efforts to cut taxes for retirees & families, expand access to healthcare, and protect workers’ rights. She’s backed by Lieutenant Governor Gilchrist, several state legislators/local elected officials, the Sierra Club, and several unions (most notably the Michigan Education Association and the United Auto Workers). Cyburt is a populist, wanting to use “collaborative decision making,” enact mixed-member proportional elections, and stop data centers & Flock cameras. He even has a demo on his website to show off MMD elections, which is pretty cool. Nelson is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, stop utility hikes, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by The Detroit News. Paiz has a huge financial advantage over her opponents, so she’s the heavy favorite to win.

HD-11 (Northern Detroit/southern Warren, Harris+62) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Democratic incumbent Donavan McKinney running for MI-13, both parties have contested primaries to replace him in this deeply Democratic district. Starting with the Democrats, who have three candidates running: Macomb County Commissioner Michael Howard, community activist Kimberly Fisher, and community activist Cranstana Anderson.

Howard is a liberal, wanting to build more affordable housing, expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), and expand community policing efforts. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials and several unions (most notably the United Auto Workers and the Michigan Education Association). Fisher is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand community policing efforts, expand economic development, and strengthen oversight of utility companies. She’s backed by outgoing Representative McKinney, several state legislators/local elected officials, and the Detroit Firefighters union. Anderson is also a standard Democrat, wanting to cut property taxes, cut insurance costs, and expand community policing efforts. Fisher has a wide financial advantage, with Howard lagging behind, and Anderson not raising much money. Fisher is probably the favorite here, but I could see Howard winning thanks to a big win out of Warren and a turnout drop in Detroit.

On the Republican side, three candidates are running: former Warren City Councilman Eddie Kabacinski, businessman Matt Stafford, and Warren City Public Works Superintendent/2024 nominee Dale Walker. Kabacinski has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, but was arrested in 2024 for illegally carrying a concealed weapon. Stafford is a conservative, promising to support law enforcement, improve public safety, and improve “accountability.” He’s backed by the Michigan Farm Bureau. Walker has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. By virtue of being the only candidate seemingly running here, I think Stafford wins, but Walker could win thanks to name recognition from 2024.

HD-12 (Eastpointe/northeastern Detroit/southern St. Clair Shores, Harris+36) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running in this deeply Democratic district: 2024 nominee Randell Shafer and businessman Brian Hakola. Shafer has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Hakola is a standard Republican, wanting to expand economic development, improve government efficiency, and cut “government waste.” Neither candidate has raised money, so I guess Shafer wins based on name recognition from 2024.

HD-13 (Roseville/eastern Warren/central St. Clair Shores, Trump+2) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Three Republicans are running for the party nod to challenge Democratic incumbent Mai Xiong in this ultra-competitive district: conservative activist Casey Armitage, realtor Mark Thomas Foster, and school bus driver Julie Leonardi. Armitage is a standard Republican, wanting to expand economic development, cut the gas tax, and improve public safety. She’s backed by the Michigan Farm Bureau. Foster, who came in second place in the primary here in 2024, has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Leonardi is a standard Republican, wanting to improve public safety, improve local schools, and fix the roads. She’s backed by Macomb County Prosecutor Peter Lucido. Leonardi leads the three in fundraising, with Armitage lagging behind her. I’ll give the edge to Leonardi given her fundraising and institutional support.

HD-14 (Madison Heights/Hazel Park/western Warren, Harris+11) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Mike McFall is facing a primary challenge from labor activist Minhaj Chowdhury in this solidly Democratic district. McFall is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut prescription drug costs, protect local natural resources, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by a bunch of local elected officials and several unions (most notably the United Auto Workers and the Michigan Education Association). Chowdhury is a standard Democrat, wanting to protect workers’ rights, raise wages, and support small businesses. He’s raised no money for his campaign though, so McFall should win this one easily.

HD-15 (Dearborn Heights/western Dearborn, Trump+2) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Erin Byrnes retiring, three Democrats are running to replace her: attorney Jalal Abdallah, former Dearborn City Councilwoman Leslie Herrick, and former Wayne County Commissioner Gary Woronchak. This is another district that swung hard to the right over Gaza in 2024, but it was a less pronounced swing than the other districts (going from Biden+16 in 2020 to Trump+2 in 2024). Byrnes won by a similar margin as Biden’s 2020 margin:

(It’s me, hi, I made the map, it’s me)

Abdallah is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public safety, expand funding for public education, and expand funding for community health clinics. He’s backed by Dearborn Heights Mayor Baydoun, several local elected officials, and the Michigan Education Association. Herrick is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, expand funding for public education, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by MI-12 Congresswoman Tlaib, several local elected officials, and the Detroit Free Press. Woronchak is almost entirely running on his record in local government and in the State House (where he served as a Republican from 1998-2004). He’s backed by the United Auto Workers. Abdallah has a solid financial advantage, with Woronchak edging out Herrick for second place. I think Abdallah wins here thanks to strong institutional/financial support.

HD-18 (Farmington to southern Southfield, Harris+54) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running in this deeply Republican district: teacher Ryan Foster and ghost candidate Ronald Ulmer-Paul. Foster (who ran for SD-07 as a Democrat in 2022) has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Ulmer-Paul also has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. I guess I’ll go with Foster to win by his status as a local perennial candidate.

HD-19 (Northern Farmington Hills to southern Bloomfield Township, Harris+32) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries in this deeply Democratic district. Starting with the Democrats, who have a primary between Democratic incumbent Samantha Steckloff and businessman Brandon Young. Steckloff is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to healthcare, fight back against climate change, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by Lieutenant Governor Gilchrist and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and the Michigan Education Association). Young is running on a similar platform, wanting to improve public safety, support small businesses, and expand access to affordable healthcare. He’s raised no money for his campaign though, so Steckloff should win this easily.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: attorney Kevin Hammer and conservative activist Mitch Swoboda. Hammer has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Swoboda also has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Pure toss-up here, but I’ll give the edge to Swoboda.

HD-20 (West Bloomfield Township area, Harris+5) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running for the party nod to challenge Democratic incumbent Noah Arbit in this Democratic-leaning district: businessman Hermon Barbe and former Orchard Lake City Councilman David Sullivan. Barbe is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting taxes, fixing the roads, and improving local education. Sullivan has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. As such, I think Barbe wins here.

HD-29 (Taylor to western Frenchtown, Trump+12) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this solidly Republican district: businessman Darian Counts and community activist Rich Li. Counts, who also works as a musician, is a standard Democrat. He wants to cut costs, raise wages, and invest in local neighborhoods. He also says he’s anti-data center and wants to “free” America from Israeli control. Li is a liberal, wanting to raise the minimum wage, stop data centers, and defend workers’ rights. Counts hasn’t raised any money for his campaign (compared to almost $6k for Li), so I think Li wins here.

HD-32 (Ypsilanti, Harris+51) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries in this deeply Democratic district. Starting with the Democrats, who have two candidates running: State Representative Jimmie Wilson and environmental activist William Riney. Wilson is a liberal, wanting to expand access to healthcare, expand funding for public education, and pass gun control. He’s backed by the Michigan Democratic Party Progressive Caucus. Riney has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. As such, Wilson should win this one easily.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: IT specialist/2024/2022 nominee Martin Church and businessman Mike Eller. Church is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, root out “fraud,” and expand “parental rights” in education. Eller has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. By virtue of being the nominee here the last few cycles, I’ll give the edge to Church.

HD-36 (St. Joseph/eastern Cass Counties, Trump+34) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Steve Carra is trying to fend off two primary opponents in this deeply Republican district: Constantine Township Trustee Max Coon and corrections officer Luke Lori.

Carra calls himself a “conservative fighter,” who will oppose abortion and defend the 2nd Amendment. Coon is a conservative, promising to defend “rural values,” cut red tape for small businesses, and defend “religious liberty.” Lori is a standard Republican, promising to improve public safety, cut taxes, and cut costs. He has also called Carra a “wannabe influencer” and Coon a “career politician.” Carra has a solid financial advantage over his two opponents and I think that’ll ultimately guide him to a win here.

HD-37 (Eastern Berrien/western Cass Counties, Trump+23) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Brad Paquette is facing a primary challenge from ghost candidate Steve Bury in this deeply Republican district. Paquette is a conservative, promising to fix the roads, defend the 2nd Amendment, and oppose abortion. Bury does have a website, but it’s just the default template that hasn’t been edited and he hasn’t raised any money. Paquette should win this one easily.