New developments since the last briefing:

• FOMC Minutes (July 28-29 meeting) were released Aug 19. The headline wasn't dovish as the 9-3 vote's three dissents were members who wanted the FED to raise rates rather than hold, not members pushing for a cut.

• Since then, odds have partly cooled again. CME FedWatch has pegged the probability of hikes at 40%, with 0% priced for a cut. Hence "hold" is still the plurality outcome.

• Today is data-heavy as July PCE and q2 GDP second estimate both landed this morning. Core CPE held at 3.30% y/y well over target.

• NVDA reports tonight, after the close. Consensus is roughly $2.13 EPQ on $93.5bn revenue against prior guidance of $91bn +-2%

• Oil has eased, not extended its climb. Brent fell about 3% on Tuesday to around $89.5/bbl as Pakistan's army chief made a one-day visit to Tehran carrying a sanctions-relief proposal, and Washington's latest economic pressure on Iran came in lighter than markets expected. The blockade itself is still unresolved.

• The 30 year Treasury yield is the new stress point: it closed at 5.31% on Aug 17, the highest since 2007. This led to the Treasury Department to intervene in the bond market on Aug 19.

• Jackson Hole starts tomorrow. The symposium runs Aug 27–29 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, with Chair Kevin Warsh's first keynote as Fed Chair Friday morning, expected around 10am ET. A BofA survey found 69% of fund managers expect a neutral tone

What mattered the most:

The minutes reframed the debate. As two weeks ago, the story was that cooler CPI gives the Fed room to hold while the minutes reminded markets that three FOMC members actively wanted to hike in July, especially with the 30-year yield at a two decade high and oil still being a risk, that hawkish minority has more leverage than the September hold consensus suggests.

My read: Today is unusually loaded for a single trading session, with PCE and GDP this morning, NVDA tonight, and all of it lands before Warsh has said a word. That sequencing matters: whatever tone he strikes Friday will be read against today's data and tonight's NVDA reaction, not against the softer environment from two weeks ago. A "neutral" speech, which most fund managers now expect, may not defuse tension so much as leave the hawkish dissent unaddressed until the Sept 15–16 decision.

How this affects your day to day life

• Gas price relief is real for now (Brent near $90 vs. its recent highs) but sits on diplomatic signals, not a resolved blockade.

• Borrowing costs tied to long-term rates (mortgages, in particular) are more exposed than short-term Fed expectations suggest, given the 30-year yield's move to 2007-era levels.

• The next real signal comes in rapid succession: NVDA tonight, Warsh Friday morning, then the September jobs and CPI reports before the Sept 15–16 decision.

Minute team here. Thanks for reading.

New developments since the last briefing:

• FOMC Minutes drop today. The minutes from the July 28-29 meeting are due at 2.00 pm ET. The vote was confirmed 9-3.

• July CPI came in cooler (Aug 12 release): Headline CPI +0.1% m/m with 3.4% y/y. Core CPI +0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y. The second straight benign monthly reading.

• Oil has pulled back off its highs but stayed elevated. Brent is now trading around $92/bbl as of yesterday, up for a fourth straight session. Trump said there are no active negotiations with Tehran and the blockade remains in effect.

• Jackson Hole is now the marquee event on deck: Aug 27-29 in Wyoming, theme "Financial innovation: implications for payments and policy". New chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote as chair Friday morning.

What mattered the most:

The softer July CPI print has genuinely shifted the odds. Where CME Fedwatch had a September hike near a coin flip right after the meeting, more recent commentary has pointed odds closer to a 1 in 3 following cool inflation data. But the minutes today are backward looking. Markets may partially look through them for that reason.

My read: The tension hasn't resolved so much as it's now waiting on Warsh. He's deliberately stripped forward guidance from Fed communication, so his Jackson Hole speech carries more signal than it normally would from a new chair, even though he's called it "a blank piece of paper" and framed it as structural rather than near-term guidance. The stakes: NVDA earnings land the evening of Aug 26, and July PCE also lands the morning of Aug 28, all cramming into the same 36-hour window as his keynote.

How this affects your day to day life

• The "higher for longer" bias from three weeks ago has eased slightly as cooler CPI gives the Fed real room to hold in September, rather than being pushed toward a hike.

• Gas relief could still reverse fast as  Brent's crept back up on Hormuz risk, not resolving it.

• The next real signal comes in stages: today's minutes (2pm ET), then Warsh's Aug 28 Jackson Hole speech, then the August jobs and CPI reports before the Sept 16 decision.

Macroscope team here. Thank you so much for reading.

New developments since the last briefing:

• The FED already decided. FOMC met July 28-29 and held rates steady at 3.50-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting.

• Not unanimous as Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented in favour of a hike.

• Thursday PCE report is in: Headline PCE eased to 3.7% y/y, core PCE at 3.3% y/y. Confirms the softer CPI trend but still well above target.

• Oil actually crossed $100 on July 23 after tanker strikes off Saudi Arabia.

• Fresh US strikes on July 29 pushed Brent to $90.74.

What mattered the most:

The hold was expected but the hawkish dissent wasn't. This highlights that the committee is more divided on inflation risk than markets priced in. Additionally, Warsh said the cooler June CPI data did not factor into the hold decision suggesting he is not ready to declare victory on inflation.

My read: The tension from the last update didn't resolve it, it sharpened. The Fed held, but three dissents for a hike means the committee is closer to tightening than easing if oil stays elevated. This raises the stakes on the September meeting far more than a clean hold would have.

How this affects your day to day life

• The path of least resistance for the Fed right now is higher for longer, not cuts. The hawkish dissent makes that even more likely.

• Gas price relief could reverse quickly again given how fast oil round-tripped past $100 and back.

• Nothing changes day-to-day yet, but watch late August (Jackson Hole) for the next real signal on rates.

Macroscope team here. Thank you so much for reading.

Today we are focusing on a mirror image of where things sat back in April. The labour market has cooled significantly since April and inflation eased on paper in June. A fresh flare up in the Iran conflict although oil has become very volatile recently into today's FED decision. June payrolls rose by 57,000 ( with 115,000 expected ) and unemployment ticked down to 4.2%. This is because a large number of people left the labour force rather than hiring rising. Weekly job loss claims also hit 187,000, the lowest level since 1969.

At the same time, June CPI cooled to 3.5% year over year, as gasoline prices reversed much lower after May's energy spike. That relief may be short lived though. Fighting between US and Iran reignited in mid-July after the June cease fire causing Brent Crude to spike above $100 a barrel before easing to $89.

What mattered the most: 

• Jobs are cooling, not cracking. 57K in June with downward revisions to April and May is soft.

• Inflation improved on paper but the drop was entirely gas prices unwinding. Core cpi staying flat month over month is genuinely a good sign if it holds.

• Oil is back in the driver's seat as ceasefires sent it to pre war levels near $70, where renewed fighting this month caused it to rush it past $100 again.

• The Fed is mid meeting right now. The FOMC meets today and tomorrow under new Chair Kevin Warsh with a decision Wednesday Afternoon.

My read: This is a "soft jobs, still hot inflation risk" environment, which is a tougher spot for the Fed compared to April. Slower hiring normally argues for easier policy but as Middle East conflicts reignite, the Fed committee argues against it. That tension is why markets are laser focused on tomorrow's Fed statement and Thursday's PCE report.

How this affects your day to day life

•  Gas prices just gave you a break in June, could climb back if the Iran conflict flares again.

• Don't expect rate cuts anytime soon.

• The job market is a low hire low fire environment right now.

Macroscope team here. Thank you so much for reading.

• Energy-driven inflation is back

• Consumer confidence is deteriorating fast

• Labor markets are stable but losing momentum

• The Federal Reserve is stuck in a holding pattern

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1. Oil Shock → Inflation 2.0

• Oil prices have surged sharply amid geopolitical disruptions

• Gasoline prices are rising again across the U.S.

• Energy is re-emerging as the primary inflation driver

2. Labor Market → Cooling

Latest Data

• Unemployment Rate: ~4.3%

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +178,000 (March)

• Labor Force Participation: ~61.9%

• Jobless Claims: ~220K–230K weekly range

Interpretation

• Labor market remains resilient

• Hiring is slowing gradually

• No immediate recession signal

2. Federal Reserve : Higher-for-Longer

Current Expectations

• Policy rate: ~3.5%–3.75%

• First rate cut: pushed to late 2026

• Market pricing: fewer cuts than expected earlier this year

One-Line Summary

Inflation is rising again just as consumers begin to weaken—putting the Fed in a difficult position.

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