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The livestock industry continues to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease, and we see the tail-end effects of African swine fever in the pork production industry.

We have generally maintained an optimistic view of field crops, fruits, and vegetables because of the favourable summer rains, which have boosted production.

But the reality is that not all is well with the field crops. The wheat industry is under immense strain.

The higher input costs at the start of the season, fuel and fertiliser, combined with lower wheat prices at the time (on the back of ample global supplies), and the unfavourable weather conditions in the Western Cape are the major challenges.

We discuss this more in this week’s episode here:

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Ordinarily, South Africa would be better placed to supply maize to Kenya, as it has a record maize harvest of 17.4 million tonnes (against its annual consumption of 12.0 million tonnes).

But South Africa won’t be able to export to Kenya, as the country still has a ban on genetically modified maize imports. Kenya will suddenly struggle to secure maize imports, leading to a “self-created” shortage.

This policy incoherence presents immense food security issues for the people of Kenya; they can’t access affordable maize from South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, the U.SS., and others because of these restrictions. At times like this, policymakers must prioritise the food security needs of the people.

Kenya won’t be an anomaly on this path. Consider Zimbabwe; they don’t plant genetically modified maize. But Zimbabwe appreciates that food security is key and has opened its borders to the import of genetically modified maize so that the people of Zimbabwe don’t run into shortages. This is a policy approach that Kenya should consider.

Ultimately, countries in the region must embrace science so that we don’t run into issues like this.

-wandile

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In that spirit, I also want to say that the advancements in the seed industry and South Africa’s willingness to adopt new genetics and embrace innovation over the years have delivered the thriving agricultural sector we pride ourselves on. We can’t slow down or hesitate to adopt innovations that will continue to boost our yields.

South Africa will continue to lead the way in agriculture, with the seed industry and all its innovations at the heart of our efforts.

With climate change and other risks, we need to breed seed varieties that help us adapt to challenging environments, deliver higher yields, and boost food security. From the government side, the speedy registration of such innovations is key.

-wandile

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“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is currently in an El Niño state, has strengthened, and current predictions indicate that it will continue strengthening towards a very strong El Niño state within the next couple of months and last at least until the end of the 2026/27 summer season. The typical signs that El Niño will affect South Africa are starting to materialise over the Pacific Ocean, and it is expected that South Africa will experience the typical impacts of drier and warmer conditions during this coming summer.”

SAWS added that:

“Predictions indicate that during spring, favourable rainfall conditions over the eastern coastal areas as well as the eastern interior could still be expected. However, as we move towards early summer, significant areas are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, especially in the central interior and the far northeast. Even though there are indications that the eastern parts of South Africa can expect above-normal rainfall during early summer, caution is advised for the potential change in the forecast due to the developing El Niño.”

Clearly, we are leaving behind a season of abundance, supported by the La Niña rains, for a challenging path ahead. The 2026-27 summer crop season will likely start from mid-October 2026 in the eastern regions of South Africa.

Indeed, I am one of the people who have stated that better soil moisture following the long summer rain season will help support plantings a bit.

But that will only be at the start of the season; much will depend on the weather conditions. I must also note that, regarding irrigation, very little is irrigated in field crops; roughly 20% of summer grains and oilseeds are irrigated, with the majority of products under rainfed conditions.

So, when weather conditions are challenging, they present complications for agriculture.

Earlier this morning, I received some emails from folks asking about the farmers' planting plans.

Well, we really don’t know. It is too early to tell. There are obvious risks they are watching: the weather outlook and higher input costs due to the U.S.-Iran war.

So, we are heading into a challenging season ahead, and the good folks at the SAWS are warning us.

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We continue to see it selling and part of discussions. In fact, last Friday, August 28, 2026, the Chief Economist of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), Dr Konstantin Makrelov, invited me to the SARB’s Library Book Club to discuss this book.

What I thought I would do to mark the day is to repost an extract from the book here, which has appeared on Our Long Walk, a blog by Professor Johan Fourie of Stellenbosch University.

To those who haven’t read the book, I encourage you to visit your nearest store to get a copy or use an ebook platform.

…

An extract from A Country of Two Agricultures by Wandile Sihlobo

On the sunny morning of 5 April 2021, when the Covid-19 pandemic had provided a breather following a sharp wave of infection, I drove from my office at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa in Pretoria to a farm in Bronkhorstspruit.

Bronkhorstspruit is a small town of roughly 3 720 people, located 50 kilometres east of Pretoria in the Gauteng province of South Africa. I was on a visit to Gift Mafuleka’s farm. Gift is a young, black commercial farmer who hails from the Esikhawini region of Richards Bay in KwaZulu-Natal. He started farming commercially in Bronkhorstspruit after a successful stint at McCain Foods South Africa (McCain), where he had progressed to crop manager on one of their farms.

After he left McCain to start his own enterprise, he leased a farm from the South African government, which it had obtained from private owners for the purpose of land reform – known as Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy (PLAS) farms, one of the land redistribution strategies introduced in 2006. The farms acquired in this manner are not transferred to black land reform beneficiaries; instead, they are given non-tradable short-term leases, while the ownership of the land remains with the government.

These leases typically vary from five to 30 years, followed by the option to transfer ownership, which seldom happens. This time frame in itself is frightening, as it suggests that if one receives a lease at age 30, one might have an option to buy the land at the age of 60 – this in a country where World Bank data suggest that life expectancy was 64 in 2019. This means a person can farm their whole life without ever feeling ownership and making a tangible investment in a farm under legislative arrangements such as the Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy.

There might be other arguments against this point, but this book is not about land reform, so I won’t dive into this further. Suffice to mention that this method of land reform has many downsides that constrain black farmers, some of which I discussed in my previous book, Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity & Agriculture. The commonly cited challenge is the lack of collateral, which leaves the land reform beneficiaries cash-starved and often causes their farming ventures to fail.

Gift’s story on the day of my visit was a positive one. The Cable News Network (CNN) was shooting a segment for its show, ‘Connecting Africa’, with journalist Eleni Giokos showcasing the success of African farmers and the untapped potential in this sector. They chose Gift, in part, to show the success of young black farmers.

This is not mentioned in the show, but was shared with me by the producers in our conversations after the shoot. Gift was in the middle of cabbage harvesting, one of various vegetables produced on his roughly 350-hectare farm.

My role there was to speak broadly about the untapped agricultural potential and avenues of investment in South Africa’s agriculture and in other parts of the African continent. The expansion in area of plantings that focus on labour-intensive and high-value agricultural commodities and investment in various value chains were some of the issues we discussed, along with opportunities for agricultural input providers.

After everyone had left, I sat down with Gift to chat about agricultural conditions, which in his case were positive as South Africa received a lot of rain in the 2020/2021 summer season. Gift was curious to know about the agricultural policy discussions in Pretoria and what we thought was the way forward to improving the participation of black farmers in commercial agriculture.

After all, as of 2022, black farmers have produced between 5% and 10% of total agricultural output in South Africa. What Gift was essentially asking about were the practical means of confronting the dualism that exists in South Africa’s agricultural sector, while simultaneously ensuring the growth and sustainability of the sector.

The poor and slow implementation of land reform, inefficient government decisions and support systems, poorly structured financial support, bureaucratic delays, drought and diseases have all entrenched the divide between commercial agriculture (mainly white) and subsistence farming (mainly black).

Indeed, at the dawn of democracy, few people probably thought that South Africa would still be battling with the phenomenon of ‘two agricultures’ – or dualism – nearly three decades on.

Although some progress has been made, as black farmers have joined commercial production and supply chains, the numbers are still disappointing, at less than 10%. Admittedly, there are commodities in which the inclusion of black farmers is much better than others.

A case in point is the wool industry, tomato production and cattle, where black farmers’ contribution is more than 9%. There has been a deliberate effort by both the private sector and government to jointly support black farmers in these commodities; hence their inclusion at the commercial level is notable. I should also emphasise, however, that this is at best a guestimate and unfortunately hides the amazing progress in maize production, wool production, commercial beef output (where black farmers are responsible for a substantial share, of 34%), and some horticultural products.

In addition, the numbers also do not consider transactions in informal value chains and sales in small local markets. This is because the reported shares are largely extracted from records provided by the commodity organisations as part of their commitment to transformation.

The incomplete picture is also a result of how the agricultural census conducted by Statistics South Africa was done by only including Value-Added Tax (VAT)-registered farmers. The 2017 agricultural census excluded 92 634 households that practised commercial farming as their main source of income, and a further 122 200 households that practised commercial farming as a secondary source of income (these are estimates from Statistics South Africa’s Community Survey of 20166).

Therefore, one can assume that around 214 800 farming households (black and white) who practise some forms of commercial farming were excluded from the agricultural census. Most of these are micro-enterprises with gross farm incomes below R500 000 per annum, but still are commercial since they sell produce.

Reasons for slow progress of black farmers

There are several reasons behind the slow progress in black farmers’ total share of farm output. First, a lack of direction, critical and fast decision making in the national and provincial governments, as well as poorly designed programmes to support black farmers to become part of the commercial sectors. These have been a challenge for years.

Second, there has been poor adoption of the latest technology to increase productivity. The commercial farming sector, whose output has more than doubled in real terms since 1994, was able to leverage technological innovation and expansion in export markets when South Africa integrated into the world economy after years of isolation, but new entrants have not always succeeded in doing so.

Third, there is a lack of collaboration between the government and the private sector as manifested in commodity organisations, agribusinesses, commercial farmer organisations, etc. This results in the slow implementation of farmer development plans. The farmer organisations are frustrated with the lack of delivery and extreme bureaucracy.

Fourth is the inefficiency of many of the provincial departments of agriculture. This results in poor and non-delivery of critical programmes to support farmers with effective broad based support programmes, especially in the former homeland regions in KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, North West and Limpopo.

This list is not exhaustive, but it is to provide a reader a feel of the challenges that confront new entrant black farmers in South Africa.

These many factors contributing to the continuation of dualism in South African agriculture, and frustrations for young black commercial farmers like Gift Mafuleka, only require effective policy making and the right incentives

Overall message

This book will focus less on history and more on the present and the future. My motivation in writing this book was to understand why the agricultural sector is still marked by inequalities nearly three decades after the onset of democracy.

The contribution of this book is to explain why these disparities have persisted in the democratic era, and what it would take to overcome them. I dissect these issues against the backdrop of major shifts in the agricultural landscape occasioned by the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, technological shifts, and changing external market conditions.

In the book, you will find the story of the evolution of South Africa’s agriculture since 1994, and the particular challenges facing the sector. Amongst other subjects, the often ignored importance of agricultural finance, the importance of trade for South Africa’s agriculture, as well as agriculture and technology. The book is intended to give the reader a full picture of the sector, painted less in arcane numbers and more in a narrative form.

A Country of Two Agricultures, by Wandile Sihlobo, is published by Tracey McDonald Publishers and is available in all major bookstores in South Africa with a recommended retail price of R280-00. You can buy it online here.

The Kindle version of the book is here.

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I have received a few text messages about this public notice of a new GMO event (see the end of the post). Some people seemed concerned about what this is about. As the note indicates, some of these events won’t be for general commercial release in South Africa.

But I do want to make a brief, broader comment.

Such notices are a normal step for transparency about what the country produces in agriculture. Since the 2000-01 season, South Africa has been growing GMO maize and soybeans and has improved the cultivars over the years. Amongst other things, these seed improvements have yielded great benefits for agriculture, improving yields and boosting our food security and exports.

This technological embrace primarily explains the higher crop yields in South Africa compared to some neighbouring African countries with even better climatic conditions.

Before its introduction, average maize yields IN South Africa were around 2.4 tonnes per hectare. This has now increased to over 6.0 tonnes per hectare.

Meanwhile, maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa remain low, averaging below 2.0 tonnes per hectare.

While yields are also influenced by improved germplasm (enabled by non-genetically modified biotechnology) and enhanced low- and no-till production methods (facilitated by herbicide-tolerant GM technology), other benefits of GE technology include labour savings, reduced insecticide use, and enhanced weed and pest control.

So, I think we shouldn’t fear discussions about improvements in genetics. If anything, we should embrace it, as it remains key to improving agricultural output, helping us adapt to climate risks, and remaining food secure. South Africa has, for some time, maintained that approach, and we need to continue with it.

-wandile

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Last week, on August 21, about 14.0 million tonnes were delivered to commercial silos, compared with the expected 17.4 million tonnes.

In a brief catch-up with our members at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) on Thursday night, I asked them what they were seeing in their silos regarding maize, especially the folks in the western regions of South Africa.

A couple of them told us that the quality of the crop they are receiving in the silos is good. This eased our fears, as late deliveries typically mean some minor quality issues.

We are ending a season of abundance in South Africa’s grain industry. The ample maize harvest covers South Africa’s annual maize needs of 12.0 million tonnes, as well as those of the neighbours. There will also be decent stocks going into the new year. The new season will likely be challenging as we approach an El Niño year, which could bring drought.

But the ample harvest of this year will mean that South Africa will start the new season in a better position than other countries that didn’t enjoy a season of abundance like what South Africa currently has: a record maize harvest of 17.4 million tonnes.

-wandile

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Amongst other things, we discussed why better seed is central to South Africa’s food security and unpacked how investment in new cultivars is improving yields, particularly in wheat and soybeans.

You can view the conversation here:

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While the focus of South Africa’s agricultural community is already on the upcoming 2026-27 season and the expected El Niño drought, the data remind us that we are closing one of the periods of production abundance.

The Crop Estimates Committee released its 7th production estimate for the 2025-26 season this afternoon, slightly nudging up the expected harvest by 0.02% from the previous month to 21.6 million tonnes. This is up 5% from the 2024-25 production season, setting a record.

The figure comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. We generally see ample harvests across most of these crops.

From a consumer perspective, the large harvest has, over the past few months, added downward pressure on prices, supporting our view of a moderating path of consumer food price inflation in 2026.

South Africa’s consumer food price inflation has slowed to 0.6% in July 2026, the lowest level since 2010.

There was a broad deceleration across various food products, and grains were in deflation, among the key products underpinning the deceleration in consumer food price inflation.

Looking ahead, the medium-term risk is the forecast El Niño drought, but it will affect the 2026-27 summer grain crop, which will only be planted from October 2026. This harvest will only enter the market in mid-2027.

If the heatwaves we see in the Northern Hemisphere are any indication, then the upcoming summer crop season may be profoundly challenging for South Africa’s agriculture.

Notably, the expected El Niño drought also poses an upside risk to consumer food price inflation. Another major risk is the ongoing war in the Middle East and its impact on fertiliser and fuel prices.

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In recent weeks, Russia’s aggressive efforts to bomb key infrastructure in Ukraine have also added to the risks of higher food price inflation in various parts of the world. How all these events will affect the global food system remains to be seen in the coming year.

For now, the various regions of the world continue to benefit from the ample agricultural harvests of the previous years. Here in South Africa, for example, we are seeing the benefits of ample agricultural output from the 2025-26 season reflected in inflation data, which continues to decelerate.

The figures released by Statistics South Africa on August 19, 2026, showed that the country’s consumer food price inflation slowed to 0.6% in July 2026, from 1.4% in June. This is the lowest level since 2010.

Grain-related products, fruits and nuts, and vegetables remained in deflation, all due to large supplies on the back of an excellent harvest necessitated, amongst other things, by the La Niña rains in the season we are closing.

Also positively, meat price inflation has slowed from recent levels, as slaughtering continues and supplies recover. The meat supply had been a concern due to foot-and-mouth disease in cattle and African swine fever cases in the pork industry. While these challenges remain, vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease in the cattle industry is gaining momentum across the country.

A detailed view

Now, if we zoom in on the key products, cereal (grains) products are in deflation, as we are in yet another year of better grain production. South Africa’s summer grains and oilseeds production is forecast at a record 21.6 million tonnes, up 5% from the 2024-25 season, according to the latest data from the Crop Estimates Committee. This figure comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybean, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. This ample harvest adds to already large stocks from the past season, keeping grain prices under pressure.

Similarly, fruits and vegetables are in a deflationary trend. Clearly, while the recent floods are destructive in parts of the Eastern and Western Cape, the country’s fruit harvest remains ample, thereby exerting continued downward pressure. The production conditions for vegetables remain broadly favourable.

Regarding meat, the pace of cattle slaughter has declined somewhat, though not notably. Another fact worth keeping in mind is that during foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, the country is typically temporarily closed to some export markets, leading to increased domestic supplies, even if slaughter has declined somewhat. Base effects on meat prices, along with continued cattle slaughter, have helped ease price inflation. Poultry production conditions are also favourable.

A low food price inflation path for now

In essence, South Africa’s ample agricultural harvest will help keep consumer food price inflation under pressure throughout 2026.

Still, the U.S.-Iran war and risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain the major near-term risks, likely leading to higher fuel costs. Fuel accounts for a substantial share of the distribution costs of food products. Notably, over 80% of staple food products are transported by road.

Looking ahead, the medium-term risk is the forecast El Niño drought, but this may only affect the direction of 2027 food price inflation, as it affects the next season’s crop, which will be planted from mid-October and come to market in mid-2027.

Based on this view, South Africa remains better placed than some regions of the world for now and will experience lower food price inflation in the coming months.

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The legality of their activity is still questionable. People are currently allowed to grow for private consumption, not to deal in these shops.

Indeed, the government has expressed a desire to grow the cannabis industry, and there are lots of people who want to be involved in the industry.

But the legislative work to permit such trade is missing. Mainly, farmers and growers have permits to cultivate for medicinal and other uses. But the regulations for these shops remain very hazy. This issue needs closer attention.

Again, I am in support of us exploring the cannabis industry like any other commodity in agriculture. And these hazy legal issues must be cleared.

A few months ago, I underscored my view on the path forward briefly, stating that there is still room for advancing the cannabis and hemp industries in South Africa. But we can’t position these as major game-changers in our agricultural sector’s growth trajectory; they are mainly an addition, like other commodities.

Still, some work remains to finalise the legislative and regulatory framework in this area.

I know many people and organisations are working hard with the government to complete the regulatory matters.

Others, like the good folks at the Agricultural Research Council (ARC), are working to advance cannabis and hemp research and, importantly, seed breeding for this plant.

I must admit, though, that we have been slow in this cannabis and hemp path. A few years ago, this was a hot issue. And now, globally, the mood is somewhat downbeat on cannabis. Still, that is no reason to change our focus in South Africa. There are cycles in these things, as with other soft commodities.

We need to move and ease the environment for commercial production, and reduce the talk and announcements about the plant. The announcements often seek to position the plant as if it will solve all our problems, but that is not the case.

We have been slow to provide a new, clear regulatory path for this plant, and the licensing fee has been somewhat prohibitive for some people.

But my caution about the overexcitement about the plant isn't that I’m pessimistic.

Indeed, it is likely that when we finally progress with cannabis and hemp research, regulations and a clear policy framework, the plant could create opportunities for cannatourism, particularly in rural areas of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Limpopo. Of course, life won’t change drastically because of this plant, but it will add some value.

Importantly, we need to consider practical ways to ensure that production and value chains don’t primarily develop in areas that have always been leading agricultural zones and in urban areas with better access to investment.

The communities of the Mpondoland region of the Eastern Cape have been growing this plant in the shadows of the law for many years. They should benefit from its liberalisation, along with KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo. Incentives to drive the industry towards these regions will be necessary.

Above all this, which I have previously highlighted, what Scott raises requires closer attention.

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But the tail end of the bad seasonal flu has prevented that. I provided input virtually. But I do want to make a few additional points about the sector and the citrus industry.

The South African farming sector is having another year of mixed fortunes in 2026, much like 2025. Horticulture (fruits and vegetables) and field crops are broadly on a positive footing compared to last year in terms of volumes produced. We see this through the ample harvests of various crops.

But the year is not without challenges. Commodity prices have been broadly under pressure, posing a challenge for farmers who started the season with higher input costs.

The sector also endured severe weather events, starting with floods in the north-eastern regions of South Africa at the start of this year, followed by destructive floods in the Eastern and Western Cape provinces. All these events presented immense costs to the affected farming businesses.

In field crops, the wheat and sugarcane growers face similarly challenging conditions. The low international sugar and wheat prices meant that the domestic market would see more imports, thus putting pressure on local industries that had started the season with higher input costs. It is for these reasons, amongst other things, that wheat and sugarcane farming have called for an increase in the import tariffs.

With all this taken into account, the field crops and horticulture subsectors still performed well. The lower food price inflation, which was at 0.6% in July, the lowest level since 2010, is a result of these ample harvests and lower prices. South African households are enjoying this benefit.

The one subsector that has continued to face challenges like the past year is the cattle industry. Foot-and-mouth disease remains a challenge, although the country is making progress on vaccination. The pork producers also struggled with African swine fever for a period.

But within this livestock subsector, we see positive developments in the poultry industry, which benefited from lower yellow maize and soybean prices, driven by an ample harvest. Soybeans and yellow maize make up roughly 70% of poultry producers’ input costs, and both declined notably for much of this year, supporting these poultry businesses.

Returning to the citrus industry, several issues persist, including geopolitical tensions, shipping cost disruptions, trade disputes in the EU, and domestic logistics challenges. They were also among the industries affected by the floods I mentioned in various parts of our country.

But the one aspect I keep emphasising is that we have an industry here that employs over 100,000 people, and its growth is dependent on the expansion of export markets, improvements in port efficiency, and road infrastructure.

We also increasingly need to pay attention to the labour-related issues given the ongoing immigration discourse in the country.

Therefore, focusing on these issues is what would help ensure that, in the long term, we have a growing and sustainable citrus industry. In the past few years, we have made some progress in exports. As a result, citrus remains South Africa’s leading agricultural export, accounting for 17% of South Africa’s US$15.1 billion in agricultural exports in 2025. South Africa’s citrus export markets are diverse and span the African continent, Asia, the UK, the Middle East, the Black Sea, Europe, and the Americas, among others.

But we can’t take this for granted; we need to deepen exports to a range of countries across these regions, and ensure that collaboration among Transnet, organised agriculture, and the private sector leads to meaningful and sustainable improvements in port efficiency. This is key to the success of this important sector.

The scientists who gathered at the Citrus Research International (CRI) Symposium in the Drakensberg today are doing their best to ensure that we produce high-yielding, excellent citrus cultivars.

Therefore, the government and other stakeholders must continue to do their part to ensure that this high-quality fruit reaches export markets efficiently, so that the South African farming economy remains robust, with citrus as one of the key exportable products.

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Looking to the future, given technological advancements, we remain convinced that as this sector expands, more jobs will be created.

But there are also new issues in the farming sector labour market that we must focus on more. The immigration discourse in South Africa has created the impression that the farming sector is left reeling from unharvested fruit and other produce as foreign workers leave the country. But this issue needs to be treated delicately, without exaggerations that create undue reputational risks.

Indeed, there are foreign workers in the South African farming sector, especially in the provinces bordering our neighbouring countries and in certain value chains such as sugarcane and fruit. However, data on their share of overall farming employment is always challenging to assess. A number of these workers typically engage in the sector during the busy harvesting periods that require more labour.

Also, because the farming sector deals with perishable products, timeliness at every stage of production is key. Therefore, there is a need to ensure that harvesting is not delayed, as this would impact the quality of the produce and the farming sector’s income and long-term sustainability.

I mention this not to validate the view that products are rotting in various fields across the country, but to say that we have to manage immigration issues in farm labour carefully and ensure that legal processes are followed efficiently, as has been the case in the past and remains the case now. The Department of Home Affairs has a major role to play here, along with organised agriculture, amongst other stakeholders.

We also need to be careful about creating narratives that the farming sector prioritises only foreign workers, and that when the immigration discourse started, things fell apart because this, too, is not a correct assessment of the sector’s conditions.

There are many South Africans who work on farms and will continue to participate in the sector, in the jobs that will be created as it expands. But in places where foreign workers are needed, we must continue the legal processes used in the past to enable such efforts and efficiencies on farms.

Now, conditions are broadly stable in the South African agricultural labour market. Consider the second quarter of 2026: South Africa’s agricultural jobs were at 944k, up 4% from a year ago. This partly captures the period when the immigration discourse had already begun and shows that the agricultural labour market remained robust.

Thus, I believe that suggesting that crops are rotting all over may not accurately capture the challenge and may risk causing alarm about the state of agricultural labour. There are isolated cases of labour challenges (and by this, I am not attempting to minimise the challenges faced by those affected), but the broader sector doesn’t face them.

In the surveys conducted by the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and Agri SA, we found the challenge was isolated to a few provinces and industries, not widespread. Thus, the jobs data for the second quarter of the year was also still robust. But this doesn’t mean there are no risks ahead.

As I said earlier, during peak harvesting periods, when farmers require labour, there are cases where foreign workers, through legal processes, join the sector for seasonal jobs. In such cases, we must have a clear path for handling this going forward to avoid risks in the sector.

There is also a responsibility on the sector to continuously recruit as many South Africans as possible, as the government has prioritised agriculture due to its potential to help reduce the country’s high unemployment.

Ultimately, the immigration matter is not an easy issue and will need to be handled carefully, without causing alarm or undue reputational risk to the export-oriented farming sector, as all key export markets place considerable value on farm labour practices.

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Interventions to release state land with title deeds, address logistics issues (ports, rail, and roads), and open new markets are crucial in this effort.

On the issue of land, which is key for inclusive growth, I would add that:

Under the Pro-Active Land Acquisition Strategy, the South African government has roughly 2.5 million hectares of land.

This is the land acquired on the open market over the years under the willing buyer-willing seller approach.

And we must continue on the path of a market-based approach to land reform and protect property rights. This is key to ensuring that the country's land reform programme delivers economic benefits for beneficiaries in the future.

Now that the South African government has this land, the process of releasing it to deserving beneficiaries with title deeds has started and will gain momentum.

There would ordinarily be a need for support for the new beneficiaries through training and finance, amongst other key supportive interventions. Thus, the land reform programme should not be the sole responsibility of the government.

There must be collaboration with organised agricultural groups and commodity associations to provide the necessary support to the new beneficiaries. This is where this government-business partnership is key.

In selecting the new beneficiaries, as we continue with land release, we must also be comfortable with the possibility that we may not support a large group of farmers.

The concept we must seriously consider is "Better Few, but Better".

We must support a new cohort of a few black commercial farmers, which could in turn encourage more over the years. Attempting to create numerous smallholdings from previously commercial farmland is not an ideal policy path.

This new cohort will also drive job creation. This won't be the end of land reform. It is just one lever under land redistribution. All other land reform processes will continue ordinarily, but with new energy and focus.

-wandile

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There are isolated cases of labour challenges (and by this, I am not attempting to minimise the challenges faced by those affected), but the broader sector doesn’t face them.

In fact, in the second quarter of 2026, South Africa’s agricultural jobs were at 944k, up 4% from a year ago. This partly captures the period when the immigration discourse had already begun and shows that the agricultural labour market remained robust.

We discuss this in detail in this episode of AgriView:

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Today I met with the key stakeholders in the National Fresh Produce Markets environment. The dialogue was triggered by the prevailing deterioration of the conditions of certain fresh produce markets and a lack of maintenance. Such issues not only drive farmers and other stakeholders away but also pose food safety risks.

In some instances, the deterioration has led to litigation among stakeholders, underscoring the value placed on these markets.

In our reflections, above all, stakeholders agreed that the National Fresh Produce Markets remain the “national treasure” in their role in price discovery and in ensuring affordable food supplies for South Africans.

Revamping the Fresh Produce Markets will only improve their contribution to society and serve farmers, agents, government, informal traders, and consumers well and efficiently.

We deliberated on a range of interventions that are essential to this revitalisation, and all stakeholders will play a collaborative role. In the coming months, we will be working on this process.

In essence, this work is part of the government’s Agriculture and Agroprocessing Master Plan, which centres on inclusive growth, job creation and food security. I thank all the stakeholders who participated in the discussion. Their inputs enriched our reflection and planning. We look forward to continuing this essential work.

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The figures released by Statistics South Africa this morning show that the country’s consumer food price inflation slowed to 0.6% in July 2026, from 1.4% in June. This is the lowest level since 2010.

Grain-related products, fruits and nuts, and vegetables remain in deflation, all due to large supplies on the back of an excellent harvest necessitated, amongst other things, by the La Niña rains in the season we are closing.

Also positively, meat price inflation has slowed from recent levels, as slaughtering continues and supplies recover. The meat supply had been a concern due to foot-and-mouth disease in cattle and African swine fever cases in the pork industry. While these challenges remain, vaccination is gaining momentum across the country.

Looking ahead, the medium-term risk is the forecast El Niño drought, but this may only affect the direction of 2027 food price inflation, as it affects the next season’s crop, which will be planted from mid-October and come to market in mid-2027.

Another issue we are watching is fuel. The U.S.-Iran war and risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain the major near-term risks, likely leading to higher fuel costs. Fuel accounts for a substantial share of the distribution costs of food products. Notably, over 80% of staple food products are transported by road.

Still, the ample agricultural harvest will help keep consumer food price inflation under pressure throughout 2026.

-wandile

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• South Africa’s citrus industry gaining wider access to the Indian market for exports

• Agricultural trade in BRICS

• South Africa’s grain harvest for 2025-26

• Zambia’s agricultural conditions for 2025-26

• The prospects of El Niño for the upcoming 2026-27 season and its likely impact on agriculture.

You can watch our conversation here.

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