This week finally saw the wet season faucet turn on for a large part of Florida (check out my video if you want to watch the rain fall in Lake Buena Vista last Sunday), and the I-4 corridor of central Florida was one of the wetter areas with widespread 4-9” rainfall totals for the week. The official Orlando observation site at MCO reported just over 5” of rain for the week, which was more than the location had seen for all of August coming into the week. That rainfall also put the site above normal for the month.

This wetter weather pattern looks pretty locked in for the upcoming week as a strong area of middle and upper level high pressure builds north and northwest of Florida, causing a deep flow of moist air from the tropics across Florida. This surge of tropical moisture will mean that showers and storms will be possible at any time of day, but the highest chances (60-80%) will be during the afternoon and evening.

Temperatures look as if they will be pretty close to normal — but with the tropical humidity, heat index values will peak in the upper 90s and lower 100s each day. Be sure you are staying hydrated if you are out in the parks this week — and of course keep an eye out for approaching storms and be ready to move indoors if thunder is heard.

Along with the surge of tropical moisture into the region, this weather pattern is also one that we need to watch for potential tropical storm activity. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance centered near San Juan that is the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly. As this system moves west-northwest over the next several days, conditions may become a bit more favorable for redevelopment, and some of the computer models show a system trying to redevelop somewhere in the vicinity of the Bahamas or Florida toward the end of the week.

Right now the signal in the models is not strong, and NHC only has 20% chances of even a tropical depression developing. However, we are nearing the peak of hurricane season which means we need to monitor it closely. Plus these are the kind of systems that can potentially get going in an El Nino year — El Nino produces wind shear in the tropics that tears apart storms like we saw with Dolly, but the farther north the system gets, the less impactful that shear is. I will keep an eye on it and update as needed.

The weather pattern currently over Florida looks as if it will start to break down by the end of the week, as an upper level trough of low pressure develops off the East Coast, resulting in more of a northerly flow of somewhat drier air in middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This should support somewhat hotter temperatures and lower rain chances next week — assuming we do not get a tropical system to develop out of the remnants of Dolly.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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This week looks fairly typical for central Florida — maybe just a bit hotter than normal. Plenty of humidity and scatter afternoon and evening storms NHC is monitoring a couple of areas way out in the Atlantic but overall the tropics still look relatively quiet for late August.

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While this past week was not particularly wet by Florida wet season standards, it did end up having a bit more in the way of thunderstorm activity than was expected. Some spots ended up picking up 2” or more for the week, which is actually a bit above normal for a week at this time of year. Temperatures were plenty hot though with highs in the mid 90s each day, which is a bit above normal.

The upper level area of high pressure that has been dominating the weather across the southern United States the last several days will gradually be breaking down across the Southeast as an upper level trough of low pressure forms along the East Coast. This should result in an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances for the mid and late part of the week along with daytime maximum temperatures coming down a few degrees from the beginning of the week until the weekend.

While there will be a very gradual cooling in the afternoons, humidity will remain very high and combined with still mostly above normal temperatures, heat risk will remain major to extreme this week. If you are planning to be out in the parks or in other outdoor activities, plan for frequent breaks and to stay hydrated.

We are approaching the peak of Atlantic hurricane season in mid-September. However, a strong and continually strengthening El Nino helped to keep the first couple of disturbances in the deep tropical Atlantic from developing this past week — and overall development looks quite unlikely again this week.

As the upper level trough I mentioned develops along the East Coast, it will push a cold front toward Florida which could serve as the focus for development in the Gulf or southwest Atlantic next week. There are some hints of this in the longer range models — but of course at this time range that is just something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, the week 2 outlook seems to favor near to slightly above normal temperatures and precipitation chances.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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As we talked about in last week’s newsletter, much of central Florida finally had a pretty wet period this past week. Areas from around Walt Disney World northeast into downtown Orlando saw 2 to as much as 6 inches of rain for the week. Orlando Int’l (MCO) received 2.45” of rainfall on Thursday, which was the wettest day so far in 2026.

Also as expected, clouds and precipitation held high temperatures down to around 90F each day through Saturday — but extreme humidity kept overnight lows warm with most mornings seeing lows in the mid to upper 70s.

I also mentioned in last week’s newsletter that the wet weather pattern did not look as if it would be long-lived — and indeed Sunday with a high at MCO of 94F was a transition day toward a hotter and drier weather pattern as an upper level area of high pressure rebuilds across the region. Daily rainfall chances this week will be much below typical wet season probabilities, with only 10-20% chances of a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.

Heat and humidity will be building through the week, and by next weekend major to extreme heat risk is expected across much of inland central Florida. Limited cloud cover will make the heat feel even more intense and will result in high levels of ultraviolet exposure. If you will be vacationing or participating in outdoor activities across central Florida, you will need to be extra diligent about sun protection, hydration and breaks from the heat this week.

While the strengthening El Nino we are monitoring in the Pacific is still expected to result in a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, there will still likely be several tropical storms and hurricanes over the next few months. As we approach the September peak of the season, the Atlantic is starting to show some signs of life, with the National Hurricane Center currently monitoring three areas for potential development. However, none of these look as if they will be a threat to Florida.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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July has come to a close, and it was one of the hottest on record for central Florida. The mean temperature (adding up all the daily highs and lows and taking an average) for the month was 85.2F, tying with 2016 for the second hottest July on record — trailing only 2024.

It was also a relatively dry month by Florida wet season standards. With 3.58” of rainfall at Orlando Int’l, July 2026 was tied with 1932 for the 7th driest July on record. Rainfall was only about half of the normal approximately 7” of rain that central Florida receives in a typical July.

Looking at rainfall on a broader scale, areas east of I-4 closer to the coast did receive more rainfall than areas farther west, with some spots actually totalling a bit above normal. But for much of central Florida, rainfall was sparser than typical with some areas as low as 25% of normal.

Luckily, as we talked about last week the hotter and drier than normal weather pattern we have seen much of the summer has finally broken down a bit. An upper level trough of low pressure has developed over the eastern United States, resulting in a trend toward wetter conditions across Florida. Shower and thunderstorm probabilities will be in the 70 to 80% range each day this week — while the highest rain chances will be in the afternoon and evening, this weather pattern will support some chance of rainfall at all times of day.

Conditions will be abnormally humid — even by Florida standards — which will result in steamy mornings with low temperatures only dropping to the mid to upper 70s. Increased clouds will yield afternoon high temperatures a bit “cooler” than the near record values that have dominated the last few weeks — but the mugginess will mean it will still be very important to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks. The high levels of atmospheric moisture will also mean that the more intense storms will produce torrential downpours of rain that could result in localized flooding.

This wetter weather pattern does not look as if it is a persistent long term pattern shift, however. Upper level high pressure is expected to build again next week, resulting in a trend toward hotter temperatures and more typical rainfall chances for the week 2 period. The Atlantic tropics continue to look very quiet heading into mid-August.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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This past week generally saw wetter conditions across Florida the farther west one went — with the heavy rainfall signal from the development and westward movement of Bertha clearly evident along the Big Bend region and over the Gulf. Orlando Int’l (MCO) picked up 0.40” of rainfall on Tuesday, but otherwise conditions were dry there from Monday onward. With just over 3” of rain so far for July, the site is running at about half of its normal monthly rainfall.

Temperatures have been unusually hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s and overnight lows in the upper 70s. The high temperature of 99F at MCO on Saturday tied the record high for the date, and was only two degrees shy of the all-time monthly record for July. The daytime low of 79F on Thursday tied a record warm minimum for that day. With an average temperature so far of 85.3F, July 2026 is running as the second warmest July on record for Orlando, just behind 2024.

As I mentioned in my post a few days ago, a bit of a change in the weather pattern is evolving currently across the eastern United States, as a persistent upper level trough of low pressure is developing along the East Coast. This can be seen in the 5-day mean forecast for 500 millibars (~18K ft AGL in the atmosphere) above, which shows the below normal heights of the upper level trough centered along the Mid-Atlantic.

This pattern will open the door for weak cold fronts to push south toward Florida along with upper level disturbances moving southeast across the region. Combined with above normal levels of moisture, this should mean increasing risks for showers and thunderstorms across central Florida, with the highest chances looking to come in the next couple of days and then again late in the week as another front drops toward the region. While the best chances for rainfall will be in the afternoon and evening, lower chances of rain will still exist even during the morning and overnight hours. Strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall will be possible in the afternoons — so be prepared to move indoors if you hear thunder or threatening weather approaches.

While increased clouds and precipitation should eventually knock a few degrees off the very hot daytime temperatures, it looks now as if it will be a gradual process with temperatures still remaining above normal through at least midweek. Major to extreme heat risk is expected — if out in the parks or doing other outdoor activities, be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks and wear sunscreen.

The weather pattern for later this week looks to continue into week 2 as shown by the NWS Climate Prediction Center outlook, with a lean toward somewhat above normal temperatures and precipitation chances. The Atlantic tropics look very quiet as we head into the first part of August.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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The potential Gulf tropical system I discussed in my last post back about 10 days ago did in fact pan out. Tropical Storm Bertha developed over this past weekend, and took the western path toward the central Gulf Coast. As a result, hot and relatively (for central Florida) dry weather has been dominant during this period. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms have brought some rainfall — but precipitation has remained below normal, and as of today Orlando Int’l has only received about 60% of normal rainfall for the summer (since June 1).

That general weather pattern will continue into this weekend, but by early next week an evolving upper level trough of low pressure along the East Coast will enable a summer cold front to drop close enough to Florida to bring an increase in thunderstorm chances. While the highest chances for rainfall will be in the afternoon and evening, this pattern will support at least low probabilities for rainfall even overnight and into the morning hours. More clouds should result in slightly cooler daytime high temperatures — but plenty of humidity will keep overnight lows above normal with muggy conditions.

With Bertha moving inland into Texas, the remainder of the tropical Atlantic looks quiet for at least the next 7-10 days.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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It was another hot and relatively dry (for Florida in July) in central Florida this week. Highs at Orlando Int’l ranged from 95 to 97F every day except today — which was actually the “coolest” with only a high of 93F and 0.35” of rainfall as mid-afternoon thunderstorms moved across the area.

This week will be relatively similar for the region, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and below normal chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Midweek looks to be the driest and hottest period, with storms chances in the 10-20% range. The combination of heat and humidity will continue to result in major heat risk — anyone planning to be in the parks this week should take frequent breaks and stay hydrated.

For the first time this year, we do have something to talk about in the tropics that is of interest for Florida. A number of the models — particularly the AI-based models which tended to perform well last year in the Atlantic — are showing the potential for a weak area of low pressure in lower and middle levels of the atmosphere to develop by this weekend over the central Gulf of Mexico. While conditions do not look hyper favorable for development, wind shear does appear to temporarily weaken and with waters over the Gulf quite warm, a tropical system could develop. Any system that develops would be in a weak steering flow pattern — so it is difficult to say whether it would drift more east toward Florida or northwest toward the Gulf Coast.

Obviously, any tropical system would complicate the week 2 outlook — but as of now given the uncertainty if any system will even develop, the outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center leans toward above normal temperatures and near normal chances for rainfall.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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June 2026 was a warm and generally drier than normal month in central Florida. The average monthly temperature of 83.6F was the fifth warmest on record at the official Orlando observing site at Orlando International Airport (records go back to 1892). Interestingly, five of the top 10 warmest months of June on record in Orlando have occurred since 2010.

The monthly total of 4.12” of rainfall was about 50% of the normal June rainfall — and it would have been a lot drier except for 2.13” of rain that fell at MCO on the last day of the month. Going into that last day of the month, June 2026 had been the 6th driest on record, it ended up 20th. To be fair, Orlando Int’l was in one of the drier parts of the Orlando metro area — areas right along the I-4 corridor were closer to the monthly normal of around 8”.

A strong area of high pressure in upper levels of the atmosphere is expected to take up residence right across Florida this week which should result in more above normal temperatures for the region.

As the high pressure area intensifies, chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will decrease, lowering to well below normal values of 10 to 20% for Thursday and Friday. As the high starts to weaken next weekend, chances should begin to increase again. Major levels of heat risk will be expected all week — keep hydrated and take frequent breaks if you are in the parks this week.

The week 2 outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center continues to favor above normal temperatures and near normal rainfall chances. The Atlantic tropics are quiet and look to remain that way into mid-July.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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After a full morning and early afternoon DCA, we took the short stroll across to the entrance of Disneyland Resort.

We unintentionally timed our arrival at Disneyland when the Celebrate Happy Cavalcade was coming down Main Street, which was a lot of fun to stop and watch. I had read in Birnbaum’s that one of the joys of the west coast parks is the number of parades and nighttime shows they have, and seeing this parade along with the Mulan themed Lunar New Year parade at DCA was a real treat.

We also peeked in a number of Main Street shops and spent some time in the Main Street Cinema to watch the short documentary on the Sherman Brothers, The Last Verse. I have become very interested in the Sherman Brothers in recent years and am a devoted “It’s a Small World” fanboy so this was a highlight for me. The documentary is very well done and worth the short visit to the cinema.

Once we were done on Main Street, we headed with the post-cavalcade throng toward Sleeping Beauty Castle and enjoyed the walkthrough scenes there. Then it was off to one of my must-dos for the day.

We didn’t get to do this when we were here the first time, so I really wanted to try out of the true Walt-inspired classics.

I know it’s old, and I know it’s rough, but I loved it. It is kitschy and nostalgic and right in my wheelhouse. I will say that I am glad that we rode it on this trip, because I will admit that my back was sore for quite a while afterwards and I might not be able to do it too much longer.

We were going to do Space Mountain afterwards because we remembered how much we enjoyed it on our first trip — but the line was too long, so we decided instead to head over to Haunted Mansion, which was another priority. It is one of our favorites anywhere we have done it — WDW, Disneyland or Disneyland Paris — and it was great. I really love exterior New Orleans antebellum style of the attraction in California.

Pirates of the Caribbean was next, and while I love it at WDW, it truly is a tour de force at Disneyland. Starting off in front of Blue Bayou Restaurant, the drops into the depths, the awesome Imagineered scenes and the length of the ride — it truly is incredible in every way.

When were done with Pirates, we were ready for dinner. We had been discussing different options through the afternoon, and had talked about Blue Bayou as an option but it never showed any walkup availability in the Disneyland app. Since we were right there, my son decided to just walk over and ask the cast member — and we were so glad he did, because she said they could seat 3 almost immediately and to come on in. We sat down in the gorgeous waiting area, and had our one celebrity sighting of the California trip as we were sitting across from (99% sure) professional golfer Jon Rahm and his family. It was quick encounter, though, as we were not waiting 5 minutes before we were called back.

I love the vibe of dining at San Angel Inn and Garden Grill at Epcot where you feel like you are enmeshed in the ride — but Blue Bayou seems to take it to another level. The restaurant is so incredibly integrated into the ride that you truly feel like you are a part of it as you wave to passersby and sip a cocktail. Speaking of cocktails, I had a hurricane — and then decided for dinner to just have a cup of gumbo. Our excellent cast member server told me that even though it was not on the menu, I could order a bowl — but I figured we would be snacking more through the evening and did not see the point in paying that much for a bowl of gumbo. In retrospect, I really regretted the decision. Both the hurricane and the gumbo were absolutely fantastic, perhaps the best I have ever had. As I told the server, given that we lived in Mississippi for 20 years and spent lots of time in New Orleans, I take my Louisiana cuisine pretty seriously and do not make that statement lightly.

After dinner, we wandered back over to Fantasyland to hit Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride. Mr. Toad was still in residence at WDW the very first time we went there with my daughter, so I had vague memories of it and was excited to do it again. It was so fun! I rode it with my (adult) son, and when we got off, he looked at me and said, “What in the Hell was that?!” I said, “Mr. Toad went on a destructive wild ride, got run over by a train, died and descended into Hell.” He was like — that’s what I thought, but I couldn’t believe Disney would go there! They do — and it’s a ton of fun.

We were starting to wear out and ready for some dessert and snacks, so we decided to finish off the rides with It’s a Small World. I already admitted to being a fanboy of this ride, and I love the whole outdoor waiting area and general vibe of the Disneyland version — it is also special to know you are on the original one that was at the New York World’s Fair.

Our server at Blue Bayou had (strongly, lol) suggested that we go to Harbour Galley near Ship Columbia and try their fresh baked chocolate chip cookies for dessert — emphasizing that we had to try them with the optional dip. Imagine our horror when the cast member that waited on us there told us that they have discontinued the dip! We decided to get the cookies anyway, and they were fantastic even without the dip — warm, gooey and great.

On our way out of the park, we stopped at the Snow White Grotto and wishing well (not easy for us to find, had to get directions from a CM). Our family has a long tradition of saving pennies to throw in fountains, and knew that this was an area we could not pass up. I am so glad we stopped, it is such a classic simple but joyous Disney enclave. We were able to hear Snow White sing “I’m Wishing,” and my wife gave a mom and her teenage daughter who wanted to make a wish but didn’t have any coins a few of her pennies. They were so thankful and happy for her to share with them so they could cast their pennies!

It had already been a day chock full of Disney fun and magic — but we were not quite done yet. Since it was just a short walk, we decided to head back to DCA for a quick peek at Cars Land at night.

Making that stop was 100% the right call. Route 66 is to me really about the neon at night, and the Imagineers have done an incredible job replicating that feel. We also stopped at Trolley Treats on our way out for some Churro Toffee based on a friend’s recommendation - 10/10!!

Our day was everything I hoped for in returning to the original Disney park and its “new” counterpart. I think the dominant feeling I had was amazement at how many incredible attractions, restaurants and shops the Imagineers have managed to fit into such a small area (compared to WDW) — and how wonderful it all works together and seamlessly flows from one area to the next. I could personally spend hours and hours just walking through these parks, snacking and occasionally exploring an attraction — I am particularly enthralled with the idea of wandering through Disneyland Park and trying some of the OG attractions I have not yet explored. Next time!

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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After a hot start to the week with less coverage of afternoon and evening storms, the latter half of the past week saw storm coverage increase — though temperatures and humidity did not change much, i.e., it was still hot. Areas around Walt Disney World and Kissimmee picked up more than 3” of rain for the week — while the official observing site at Orlando Int’l was again in a bit of a rainfall minimum, only picking up a bit over an inch. MCO’s hottest temperatures of 98F came on Tuesday, and each day of the week saw a high of at least 95F.

The strong upper level area of high pressure that will develop across the East — and produce a major, prolonged heatwave there — will change the weather pattern for Florida by inducing deep easterly wind flow off the southwest Atlantic.

The result of this will be to increase the coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms — and with increased moisture and cloud coverage, daily high temperatures will come down a few degrees. Humidity will of course still be oppressive, so major heat risk will be an issue each afternoon. If you are going to be in the parks, you will want to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and be ready to move to shelter if thunder roars.

Within that easterly flow off the Atlantic and along a dissipating cool front, the National Hurricane Center is now highlighting a low possibility of a weak tropical system developing and slowly moving west. Again, that development chance is low (20%) and even if something were to develop it would likely only enhance rainfall chances. The remainder of the Atlantic tropics look quiet for the next 7 to 10 days.

For week 2, it seems like the upper level area of high pressure to the north of Florida will break down a bit, resulting in a weakening of the easterly flow off the Atlantic. That should allow a trend back toward a somewhat hotter and slightly drier pattern.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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As we approach the peak of the wet season in central Florida, nearly daily shower and thunderstorm activity means the normal rainfall in a typical week is over an inch — about 1.5” in late June. So even though most areas picked up decent rainfall over the last week, most areas south and west of Orlando actually averaged below normal for rainfall — while areas closer to the east coast were somewhat above normal. Orlando Int’l (MCO) has still not gotten to an inch of rain for June, at 0.82” it is running more than 4.5” below normal for the month.

Meanwhile, the heat and humidity have continued to be plentiful over the last week, with MCO reaching 98F on both Tuesday and Thursday. Lows each morning were in the mid to upper 70s.

Drier air aloft is expected to move over central Florida early this week, resulting in somewhat lower than normal afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances with only 20 to 30% chances. As that drier air moves off, afternoon and evening storm chances will increase to more normal (50-70%) levels for Wednesday through Friday.

Heat and humidity will continue to be at major risk levels through the upcoming week. Heat risk will gradually build across Florida with increasing areas of extreme heat risk by next weekend. If you’re planning to be out in the parks this week, you definitely need to be hydrating and taking frequent breaks.

In the longer range it looks as if an even stronger area of high pressure aloft will develop across the eastern United States next week, resulting in above normal temperatures and near normal rainfall risks across Florida. The tropics appear to remain quiet for the next couple of weeks.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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The wet season continued to gradually kick into gear across Florida this week. As is typical, there were winners and losers with rainfall, as many areas received at least an inch and up to 3”, but a few spots got very little rainfall. One of these areas was around Orlando Int’l which has only had .19” of rain for the first half of June, more than 3” below normal.

While drought has improved across the Sunshine State in the last month, most areas are still in moderate to severe drought.

With limited rainfall around MCO, the official observing site at the airport was a particularly hot spot this week, with highs the last two days reaching 97F, just a couple of degrees below the record highs.

Status quo weather is expected this week as an upper level area of high pressure will strengthen across the southwest Atlantic and Florida. This will mean plenty of heat and humidity with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms each day.

Abnormally warm ocean temperatures surrounding Florida and a surge of tropical moisture moving north and east across the Gulf will mean particularly high humidity even by Florida standards, and unusually warm, humid mornings. Heat risk will be in the major category each afternoon with heat indices in 100 to 107F range — plan for plenty of hydration and frequent breaks if out in the parks this week. The high moisture levels will also mean that some of the afternoon storms will be strong with gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance in the vicinity of the Mexico/Texas border that has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it moves slowly northeast into the middle of this week. This systems is expected to remain well to the west of Florida — and no other tropical activity is expected this week.

That upper level high pressure system is expected to remain in control of the weather across Florida into at least the first part of next week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center week 2 outlook shows high probabilities of above normal temperatures with near normal precipitation chances.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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A very summery weather pattern looks to be in store for central Florida this week with high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and further increasing humidity. This will result in moderate to major heat stress each afternoon — if you’re planning to be out in the parks or otherwise out of doors, stay hydrated and plan frequent breaks.

Rainfall will be rather scarce early in the week — but increasing moisture will provide an increase in afternoon and evening thunderstorms for the latter half of the week with chances increasing into the 60-70% range each day. Be ready to move indoors if threatening weather approaches or thunder is heard.

Easterly winds early in the week will provide some rough surf and rip currents at Space Coast beaches, so be aware if planning a beach outing. As winds become more southerly and southwesterly toward the latter part of the week, conditions should improve.

This general weather pattern looks to persist into week 2. We will be keeping an eye on the tropics as well. Longer range models were showing a decent chance of a tropical system developing in the Gulf in about 10 days, but have since backed off a bit. Still, conditions look as if they will be at least a bit more supportive than normal for development in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean by next weekend into the following week — as of now the threat is low, but we will keep an eye on it.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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It was a warm and humid week across central Florida, with most locations receiving at least an inch of rain from mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. As expected, low temperatures were particularly above normal, with new daily record high minimum temperatures set at Orlando Int’l on four mornings. The warmest morning was Saturday morning with a low of only 77F. The high on Saturday only reached 89F, the coolest of the week as all other days saw highs in the lower to middle 90s.

The weather pattern of the last week will continue for another few days, with high temperatures mainly in the lower 90s, plenty of humidity and scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

During the middle of the week, a weak “backdoor” cold front — a cold front coming in from the north-northeast — will push through most of Florida. Increased clouds and precipitation associated with the front will keep high temperatures down a bit on Wednesday, and once the front moves through, drier and somewhat cooler air will be brought into central Florida on increasing northeast breezes.

By next weekend and into early next week, an upper level area of high pressure will build across Florida, bringing an increase in temperatures and moisture.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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Easterly winds this week caused daily thunderstorm activity and the heaviest rainfall to be focused over the western half of the Florida Peninsula. Even with the most widespread activity to the west, most areas of central Florida picked up at least 0.5-1” of rainfall for the week. Temperatures were somewhat above normal with highs in the lower 90s each day, and morning lows were even a bit more above normal with lows in the 70 to 75 degree range each day. The low temperature on Thursday morning at Orlando Int’l of 73F tied the daily record warmest low temperature for the date.

As I discussed last week, the significantly above normal sea surface temperatures surrounding Florida are helping to elevate humidity levels which is also keeping morning low temperatures warmer than normal.

Morning lows will be near daily record warm levels at many sites around the Florida Peninsula this week (NWS forecast minimum temperatures near or above daily records for Tuesday shown above).

The southern subtropical branch of the jet stream has been becoming increasingly active across the southern United States the last several days, and this trend will expand toward Florida this week with increasing risks of showers and thunderstorms each day. Daily high temperatures should gradually come down a couple of degrees with the increase in clouds and precipitation — but humidity and morning low temperatures will remain well above normal. The bottom line for those planning to be in the parks this week will be to stay hydrated and be ready to move indoors if thunder is heard or threatening weather approaches.

Strong easterly wind flow will continue to produce high surf and dangerous rip currents along the Florida East Coast the next few days. The persistent easterly winds should finally begin to relax later this week.

The seasonal hurricane forecast is always of interest, and NOAA released their outlook last week. It is calling for a below normal season to be the most likely outcome. This is due to the anticipated development of a potentially strong El Nino event — El Nino tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic, particularly in the Caribbean and deep tropical Atlantic. However, its impact on areas farther north is less consistent — and of course, it only takes one tropical system to potentially cause significant impacts to any particular region. I will be providing regular tropical updates in my Fairy Dust Forecast updates as we head into the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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The slow moving cold front I talked about last week finally brought some fairly widespread rainfall of .5 to 2” to central Florida over the past week.

The most numerous thunderstorms occurred on Tuesday, when an upper level disturbance moving across the peninsula brought some organized strong to severe storms, including a weak tornado north of Tampa Bay and couple of large hail reports on the east side of the Orlando metro area.

The cold front finally pushed south of the area late in the week — the air behind the front was drier, but temperatures quickly warmed back to above normal for the weekend and will remain that way into the upcoming week as an upper level area of high pressure builds across Florida and the southwest Atlantic.

Sea surface temperatures are quite a bit above normal all around the Florida peninsula, and this will help keep nighttime and morning low temperatures particularly warmer than normal along with plenty of humidity.

Humidity will gradually increase through the week, resulting in building heat stress each day, with the NWS HeatRisk forecast to start to approach the major category by next weekend. People planning to be in the parks this week should be practicing heat safety by taking frequent breaks and staying hydrated, as well as wearing plenty of sunscreen. The humidity will also help fuel scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, with chances increasing through the week along with the atmospheric moisture — be ready to move indoors when thunder roars.

If you’re headed to the beach to get a break from the heat, be aware that there will be rough surf and high risk for rip currents due to strong east-southeast winds coming off the Atlantic. Follow posted signs and flags regarding water conditions and staying out of the water.

The general pattern of above normal temperatures and moisture looks to continue into the week 2 period as the upper level high pressure system looks to remain centered over the southwest Atlantic, and the calendar edges closer to summer and Florida’s wet season.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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A quick update for anyone that is going to be out in the parks today, that things might get a bit spicy as far as thunderstorms this afternoon across central Florida. An upper level weather disturbance of the eastern Gulf will be moving east this afternoon and interacting with the weak front I talked about in Sunday’s update. The combination of these two features looks to result in scattered to numerous storms as shown in the forecast radar loop from the latest high resolution refresh model.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has placed a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe storms across much of peninsular Florida for this afternoon. Enhanced winds aloft with the upper level disturbance will provide enough wind shear for a few storms to become supercells across the outlooked area, meaning the most intense storms could produce hail, strong winds and potentially even a tornado. Obviously, if you are planning outdoor activities this afternoon, be keeping an eye on the weather and be ready to move indoors if thunder is heard or threatening weather approaches.

Chances (50-60%) for showers and storms will persist on Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and evening, before the front finally pushes through, yielding drier weather for the end of the week.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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It has been a hot and mostly dry week across central Florida. Some scattered showers and storms popped along the sea breeze Saturday afternoon from Orlando east, bringing some rainfall. Much of the rest of the past week has been mainly dry though, with high temperatures reaching the 90s each day and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s, which is well above normal for early May. While Orlando Int’l didn’t quite reach any record high temperatures this week, the high of 96F on Saturday was just a degree short. Melbourne hit a couple of record highs during the week, including 97F on Saturday.

The hot and unseasonably humid weather will continue through Monday as a weak cold front slowly sags south toward the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around each afternoon and evening, with the highest concentration expected from Orlando east to the coast. If you are going to be in the parks are doing other outdoor activities the next couple of days, be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks and be ready to move indoors if you hear thunder or see storms approaching.

That front will continue to slowly slide south through midweek, with continued risks for showers and storms along with slightly cooler temperatures. The front will finally push through the region, yielding mostly dry conditions for the latter half of the week along with high temperatures slowly warming back above normal.

A change to the weather pattern looks to be in the offing for week 2, as the persistent upper level trough of low pressure that has been resulting in occasional weak cold fronts pushing south into Florida looks to break down and be replaced by an upper level area of high pressure. This should result in generally summerlike weather across Florida, with somewhat above normal temperatures and near normal rainfall chances.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

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A cold front brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to central Florida Saturday afternoon and night. With regard to the ongoing drought, rainfall amounts were rather disappointing, with most areas receiving less than 0.5” though a few spots did pick up 0.5-1.” After a hot week with temperatures mainly reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s for highs, Sunday was a more pleasant day with Orlando Int’l only hitting 79F for a high.

While an upper level trough of low pressure is going to bring overall cooler than normal weather for much of the eastern US this week, an unusually strong area of high pressure aloft will develop across the Gulf and Florida, and this will bring unseasonably hot temperatures to the Sunshine State most of the week. The hottest temperatures look to come Wednesday into Thursday, when highs in the middle 90s could approach record high temperatures.

The Gulf of Mexico is running anomalously warm, and as a result as southwesterly winds develop this week, unseasonable levels of humidity will push into the region as the week goes on.

The combination of heat and humidity will result in widespread moderate heat stress across the region by Thursday and Friday. If you are planning on being out in the parks or doing other outdoor activities, you will definitely need to be staying hydrated and taking cooling breaks, along with using plenty of sunscreen.

The heat and humidity could allow a few isolated afternoon/evening showers or thunderstorms to develop. By next weekend, the upper level trough over the East will push a weak cool front south into Florida. While as of now it does not look like the front will actually push through the region — meaning the hot weather will continue — the front should provide a focus for increased afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development.

As of now, it is looking like the general weather pattern expected this weekend will continue into week 2, with above normal temperatures and rainfall chances favored across Florida.

Fairy Dust Forecast is a newsletter focused on providing weather information for those planning visits to central Florida theme parks or other outdoor activities in the region, as well as periodically sharing thoughts on Walt Disney World and other central Florida attractions from my GenX perspective. Regular weather updates are typically published on Sunday, with other occasional posts during the week. For $6/month, you can support Fairy Dust Forecast and get tailored weather information to support your specific vacation plans or other needs. Click below to become a paid or free subscriber. (Note that a paid Balanced Weather subscription includes paid access to Fairy Dust Forecast as well.)

Subscribe now