Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report - Tropical Update

The tropics did show that there is a heartbeat this season, but it is a weak one for the Atlantic Basin, while it is strong over the Pacific. This will be a brief tropical update today as I am also posting this video on the Weather2020 Youtube channel. Here is the link: Today's Video Update

We are working on the in-depth El Niño update for Tuesday’s report. Have a great weekend,

Gary

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

I just got back from Kansas City, where I had conversations with farmers and also had the chance to visit with thousands of people at the Head for the Cure 5K. It was great seeing everyone, and we have some big things to share today and in the weeks ahead.

Let’s get started with a look at what has happened since this weather pattern began. What do I mean by “since this weather pattern began”?

The Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC®) sets up every fall, and we usually identify the beginning of each year’s unique weather pattern around October 5th–7th. This year was no exception. Once established, the pattern continues to cycle and evolve through the end of September of the following year.

So, what has happened since this pattern set up? Let’s take a 30,000-foot view. Here is a look at rainfall from October 5th through today. During the past 11 months, there has been a rather distinct swath of near- to above-average rainfall extending from southwest of Kansas City northeastward into much of New York. And there is another fascinating piece of this year’s pattern: Illinois has had more tornadoes than any other state during this LRC® year.

Let’s take a closer look at what has happened, where we are now, and most importantly, what the LRC® is telling us about the weather from now through harvest.

Temperatures have been above to much above average from Idaho and Montana southeast to the Gulf coast of Texas:

The Anchor Ridge — A Key Feature of This Year’s LRC®

When the LRC® set up last fall, a powerful anchor ridge became established over the western and southwestern United States. Weather 20/20 identified this feature early, and it became one of the keys to understanding what would happen during the months ahead.

The position of this anchor ridge allowed us to identify the regions most likely to experience below-average precipitation, persistent warmth, and reduced storm activity. It also gave us high confidence that many western ski areas would have an underperforming snow season.

Now, nearly 11 months later, look at how dramatically the temperature map (above) reflects that feature. Much of the West has averaged well above normal since October 5th, while parts of the Northeast have actually averaged below normal. Most of these predictions, made months in advance, verified remarkably well.

For those of you who have been following the LRC® for more than a year, our hope is that you are putting this information to work. Knowing what the weather pattern is capable of doing weeks to months in advance can lead to earlier insights and more confident decisions.

And now we turn our attention to the next critical question: What does the pattern tell us about the weather from now through harvest?

The Evolving Weather Pattern As The Jet Stream Strengthens

As fall approaches and the days grow shorter, the jet stream is beginning its seasonal strengthening process. This is an important time of year because the atmosphere becomes increasingly energized as we move toward September.

In the immediate term, there are still opportunities for severe thunderstorms. On Wednesday, there are three separate Level 2 out of 5 severe-weather risk areas, stretching from the central Rockies into the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.

Now, look at what happens during the next ten days

Here is today’s video:

Read more

Welcome To The Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

For those of you in northern Missouri, there has been some good news over the past week with areas of beneficial rainfall, including additional rain today. Let us know what you have received and how it has impacted your crops. We always appreciate hearing what is happening in your fields.

In today’s report, we’ll begin with the setup for severe thunderstorms today and tonight (if you’re reading this on Tuesday). We’ll then look ahead toward harvest weather before finishing with an important developing factor for fall and winter: a strengthening El Niño that is increasingly likely to become strong.

Let’s begin with a look from above—around 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere.

The map below shows the flow at the 500 mb level, where we can clearly see the features driving this week’s weather pattern.

A strong anticyclone—the large area of higher heights—is shifting south across the southern United States. At the same time, the jet stream is dipping south out of Canada and into the central United States.

This combination is setting the stage for thunderstorms to develop along the northern edge of the heat, with some of these storms capable of becoming severe.

There’s a dip in the jet stream extending south across the Great Lakes, and this is placing eastern Kansas and western Missouri near the right-rear quadrant region of the upper-level jet tonight. This is an area where rising motion can be enhanced, helping set the stage for thunderstorms and the severe-weather risk shown below.

Meanwhile, the heat-wave-producing anticyclone remains strong, but it has been pushed a little farther south. We are now approaching September, and the jet stream is gradually beginning its seasonal shift southward.

The severe-weather risk tonight is centered near Kansas City, where there is a Level 2 out of 5 risk. The tornado risk is very low, but damaging winds and hail will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms, so we will be watching this summertime setup closely.

What is particularly interesting is how closely the zone I identified on the surface map lines up with the risk area from the Storm Prediction Center. Now we have to see exactly where that boundary sets up as we approach sunset.

n setups like this, the area north and northeast of the warm front can become particularly favorable for thunderstorm development. As the low-level jet strengthens near and after sunset, thunderstorms may rapidly increase, organize into a complex, and then grow upscale as they move through the region overnight.

The most likely window for the strongest thunderstorms appears to be from around 8 PM through 2 AM.

Now let’s look at what has actually been happening this month.

The map below shows rainfall as a percentage of average from August 1–18, and I left the individual numbers on the map so you can see just how dramatic some of the differences have been.

Remember, 100% is average rainfall for this period. A value of 200% means twice the average rainfall, while 50% means only half of average.

The wettest corridor has been impressive, stretching from portions of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. There are numerous locations showing 200%, 300%, 400% and even higher percentages of average rainfall.

Northern Missouri has also benefited from this wetter pattern, while the contrast becomes dramatic as you move farther south and southwest. Parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and especially Texas have received well below average rainfall so far this month, with some locations receiving very little at all.

Notice the 516% of average rainfall, which means 5 times average for this first 18 days of the month stretch, near Des Moines increasing to 8 times average over Indiana. There has been significant flooding in these areas. Also notice how dry it has been over much of Oklahoma and Texas as the anticyclone dominates.

Before we move on and end up with the development of the strong El Nino, here is today’s in-depth video:

Read more

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report - Tropical Update

Intensifying Tropical Storm Lala is already beginning to impact the Hawaiian Islands, and it will likely be a hurricane by the time many of you read this report.

As Lala approaches Hawaii, it will encounter ocean temperatures that cool to just below 80°F, which may limit how much additional strengthening can occur. Regardless of its exact intensity, this is a potentially dangerous storm for Hawaii.

The greatest concerns will be life-threatening flooding, very high surf, and damaging winds, with gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph. All of the Hawaiian Islands could experience impacts from this system, although the severity will vary depending on Lala’s eventual track.

We’ll begin this Tropical Update with Lala and Hawaii, and then turn our attention to the Atlantic and what the LRC is telling us about what may come next.

We are forecasting Lala to track very close to the southern tip of the Big Island before likely passing south of the other main Hawaiian Islands. Based on the current projected track, the Big Island of Hawaii will experience the greatest impacts, including the potential for flooding rain, high surf, and strong winds.

On a personal note, Hawaii is one of my favorite places. I’ve been to Kauai six times, Oahu three times, and Maui once—but I’ve never made it to the Big Island! How about you? Do you have a favorite Hawaiian island?

For everyone in Hawaii, please stay weather-aware as Lala approaches.

Here is today’s video:

Cristobal formed over the northern Atlantic earlier this week and then quickly fell apart. Dolly will be the next named storm, and for a while it looked like we were going to have Dolly developing in the tropical Atlantic—but instead, it went poof!

The strengthening El Niño may already be having an influence on the Atlantic hurricane season, helping create an environment that is less favorable for tropical systems to organize and strengthen. This quieter season is something we anticipated. Weather 20/20 forecast only 8–12 named storms this year, well below the long-term average.

But we aren’t letting our guard down. We still have important tropical windows ahead of us, and it only takes one significant hurricane to have a major impact.

We had been tracking two potential tropical systems across the Atlantic, but neither one has been able to organize as expected. As you can see below, both disturbances are now on life support.

The atmosphere simply has not been very supportive of tropical development so far this season. That fits well with our forecast for a quieter-than-average Atlantic hurricane season, although we still have some important forecast windows ahead of us.

Fall is now only five weeks away, and the atmosphere is beginning an important transition. The jet stream will gradually strengthen, El Niño continues to develop, and before long, the new LRC will begin evolving for the 2026–27 season.

For agriculture, the timing becomes increasingly important. Harvest is approaching across the Grain Belt, and the placement of rainfall, periods of heat, and eventually the first stronger fall systems can have significant impacts.

We’ll take a much deeper look at the developing pattern and what it may mean for harvest in Tuesday’s Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report.

For now, here is the rainfall forecast for the next ten days:

Conclusion

If you have interests in Hawaii, please stay weather-aware and prepared through the weekend. The greatest impacts from Hurricane Lala are expected on Sunday, with the potential for strong winds, high surf, and very heavy rainfall. By Monday, Lala should be well past the Hawaiian Islands and conditions will begin improving.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains unusually quiet, El Niño continues to strengthen, and we are getting closer to the time when the new LRC begins to evolve.

Our next full Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report comes out Tuesday, when we’ll turn our attention toward the developing pattern and what it may mean as harvest approaches.

Stay safe, and have a great weekend!

Gary

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

Some areas really need some rain within the next two weeks for their crops. We will look at the various models in just a second.

A warm welcome to all of our new subscribers around the world! Thank you for joining us on this exciting journey as we continue advancing long-range weather forecasting through the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). Our goal is simple: to help you make more confident decisions by understanding the recurring patterns of the atmosphere weeks and months in advance.

There is now a growing threat of a tropical system developing and tracking toward Hawaii. At the same time, another system may organize in the Atlantic within the next week as we move into one of our forecast windows for tropical development.

As the tropics become more active, the jet stream has just reached its weakest average strength and farthest north average position of the year. This marks the beginning of its gradual strengthening as fall is now just six weeks away.

In this report, we’ll examine the subtle changes now developing in the atmosphere and how they may begin shifting precipitation patterns. We’ll also discuss what these changes could mean for agriculture as harvest season approaches.

So, let’s get started!

One of the reasons severe thunderstorms tend to become less intense during the summer is that the jet stream weakens and retreats farther north. With less upper-level energy available, the atmosphere often still produces severe thunderstorms, but the number of tornadoes typically decreases, as you can see here with August only have 24 tornadoes in the first 11 days of the month.

As the chart above shows, after the April and June peaks, tornado reports have steadily declined. In fact, just last week we experienced the first five-day stretch without a tornado since the spring severe weather season began. While severe thunderstorms have continued across parts of the country, tornado production has dropped off significantly.

There is often a second severe weather season in the fall as the jet stream begins strengthening and shifting southward. During this transition, it once again interacts with warm, humid air before autumn cooling stabilizes the atmosphere, creating another opportunity for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Before we get to the analysis of the weather pattern and the outlooks, here is today’s video:

Read more

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report

A special welcome to all of our new subscribers from around the world! We’re excited to have you with us as we continue exploring long-range weather forecasting through the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) and the cycling pattern that set up last fall and continues today.

We believe we are now 7 to 14 days away from the development of what will likely become Tropical Storm Cristobal, as we get closer to the three forecast windows we have been sharing with you since we put the hurricane season forecast out in April.

We’ll also take a look at the expanding heat wave across North America, the evolving upper-level weather pattern, and how these larger-scale atmospheric features fit into this year’s LRC.

Let’s get started with a look at the seasonal forecast issued in April:

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been remarkably quiet so far, and the developing El Niño is likely one of the primary reasons why. We’ll take a much deeper look at the warming tropical Pacific Ocean in an upcoming report, as its greatest impacts are more likely to be felt later this fall and into next winter.

Our preseason forecast continues to call for only 8–12 named storms this hurricane season, well below the long-term average. However, a quieter season does not necessarily mean a weak season. It only takes one storm to make it memorable, and we still expect two or three hurricanes to strengthen into major hurricanes. So while the overall number of storms may remain below average, we must not let our guard down.

Tropical Storm Bertha was produced by one segment of this year's LRC. As that segment cycles back into place in late September into early October, we expect conditions to once again become favorable for tropical development. This is one of the three primary forecast windows in our seasonal outlook and remains a period we will be watching very closely.

The other two primary forecast windows are now approaching. The first extends from mid-to-late August into early September, with the greatest potential for tropical development across the eastern Caribbean and surrounding Atlantic waters. The favored track could then take a system toward the Gulf of Mexico or near Florida.

Before we get to the rest of the hurricane risk windows & the set up across the United States and North America, let’s take a look at today’s video:

Read more

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

A major western heat wave is underway as we move through this first week of August. Over the next several days, the heat will expand eastward, becoming significant across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and beyond.

The remarkable part isn't that there's a heat wave. It's that Weather 20/20 forecast this atmospheric pattern more than 7½ months ago. The blueprint first emerged last October as the 2025–2026 weather pattern began cycling. Then, in our December 21, 2025, Intelligence Report, we made a bold prediction for a major late-July and early-August heat wave. I presented that forecast again to more than 1,000 farmers at FarmCon on January 8. Today, that forecast is unfolding almost exactly as expected.

The bad news? The next 7–10 days are going to be very hot across a large part of the country. Now comes the question I’ve been hearing from grain traders and farmers:

“I need your forecast on how many inches will fall, and when—for the Grain Belt.”

That’s exactly what we’ll focus on in this report. Where will the meaningful rainfall occur? Which areas remain at risk of staying too dry? And what does the recurring atmospheric pattern tell us about August and September?

Let’s begin by revisiting that prediction from 7½ months ago and comparing it with what’s unfolding today.

This forecast is important because it gives us confidence in what comes next. Predicting a heat wave months in advance is interesting. Predicting what follows is where Weather 20/20 can make a difference. Our mission is to provide actionable weather intelligence that helps you make better decisions with greater confidence.

The questions we need to answer:

• Where does meaningful rain develop?

• Which areas stay drier?

• When do the best rainfall windows occur?

• Does the heat break?

• What does September look like?

To answer those questions, we first need to understand the large-scale atmospheric pattern that is controlling the weather across North America. The atmosphere always leaves clues. The position of the jet stream, upper-level troughs, and the heat-producing anticyclone tells us where storm systems are likely to track—and just as importantly, where they are not.

This first map shows the 500 mb upper-level flow for today, August 4, 2026.

Notice the strong anticyclone over the southwestern United States—the heat-wave creating machine. Air beneath this high-height system sinks and warms, suppressing widespread thunderstorm development while allowing temperatures to soar. At the same time, the jet stream has shifted well north into Canada, but there is a big dip in the flow over the plains states today which is leading to the cold front that is moving slowly south.

The result is exactly what we expected: expanding heat across the Plains and Midwest, with meaningful rainfall becoming more dependent on the position of the ridge and disturbances riding around its northern and eastern edges. Understanding how this pattern evolves is the key to answering the questions that matter most for August and September.

By Saturday, August 8, the 500 mb anticyclone strengthens and expands across the southern Rockies and southern Plains. As the high-height area builds, the core of the heat spreads eastward into the central Plains and begins influencing much of the Midwest.

Notice that the jet stream remains displaced well north into Canada. With the primary storm track staying north of the Grain Belt, widespread, soaking rainfall becomes more difficult to achieve. Instead, thunderstorms will tend to develop along the northern and eastern periphery of the anticyclone, where disturbances riding the jet stream interact with the hot, unstable air.

This is one of the keys to answering our rainfall questions. The position of the anticyclone determines not only where the hottest temperatures occur, but also where the best opportunities for meaningful rainfall develop. This set up places Kansas City and areas fanning out north and east in a zone that will see more rain chances.

Before we move on to the precipitation and temperature forecasts, here is today’s video:

Read more

Welcome to our Tropical Update edition of the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

As we move into August, we are entering what is typically considered the weakest phase of the current LRC cycling pattern. This is often a transition period before the atmosphere begins organizing into next year’s pattern. We’ll take a much deeper look at the jet stream and what it is telling us in Tuesday’s Weather Intelligence Report.

For now, let’s turn our attention to the tropics and the evolving weather pattern influencing North America today. We’ll also revisit the three tropical forecast windows that remain in our seasonal outlook and discuss what we’re watching as we move deeper into hurricane season.

And, a very warm welcome to all of our new subscribers from around the world! We are grateful you’ve joined us as we explore long-range weather forecasting through the science of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). We hope you enjoy today’s report.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has started just as the LRC suggested it would—a quiet beginning. Through the start of August, only Arthur and Bertha have formed, and both were weak tropical storms. This slower-than-average start is consistent with our preseason forecast, and we continue to expect the season's most significant opportunities to develop later in the pattern. And, by later, we do expect a strong hurricane later this month.

Our preseason forecast, issued months before the season began, called for a quieter-than-average Atlantic hurricane season. We projected 8–12 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 2–3 major hurricanes, all below the 30-year average. Through the beginning of August, the season continues to track well with that outlook.

Here is today’s video description:

The quiet start does not mean the season is over. Historically, the most active portion of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs from mid-August through September, and our forecast still highlights three periods with elevated potential for tropical development. Let’s take a closer look at those remaining windows.

The track of Tropical Storm Bertha is an important clue to one of our three remaining forecast windows. Using this year's 10–11 week LRC cycle, the atmospheric pattern responsible for Bertha should return in late September into early October. If the cycle repeats as expected, conditions would again become favorable for tropical development, with the potential for a stronger system somewhere within this highlighted area.

Before we reach the late September into early October window, two earlier periods deserve close attention. These are the next two elevated-risk windows identified in our preseason hurricane outlook.

The first window extends from mid-to-late August into early September, with the greatest potential for tropical development in the eastern Caribbean and nearby Atlantic waters. From there, the favored tracks could take a system into the Gulf of Mexico or northward near Florida.

The second window follows shortly afterward, from late August into mid-September. During this period, the favored development region shifts eastward, while the highest probabilities favor a track toward Florida and the southeastern United States.

These remain forecast windows—not guarantees. However, they represent the atmospheric periods where the LRC indicates the greatest potential for tropical development as the climatological peak of hurricane season approaches

This Week’s Evolving Pattern

While the tropics remain quiet for now, the atmosphere across North America is anything but stagnant. The upper-level pattern is becoming increasingly amplified, with a strengthening anticyclone over the Southwest acting as the summer heat wave creating machine, while energetic troughs continue rotating across Canada and the northern United States.

This evolving pattern will drive the weather across much of North America during the coming two weeks, influencing where the hottest temperatures develop, where the storm tracks set up, and where the heaviest rainfall is most likely to occur.

Notice how the upper level high shifts east in the next 10 days with the main jet stream way up north.

The heat wave is now expanding across the western and central United States. Temperatures above 100° will become common across the High Plains and Desert Southwest, with some locations in the lower deserts approaching 115°. Meanwhile, the northern jet stream continues to deliver cooler air into the Great Lakes and Northeast, creating a sharp contrast across North America.

Looking ahead about ten days, the overall pattern changes very little. The Southwest anticyclone remains the dominant feature, continuing to generate widespread heat across the western half of the country. While there will be periodic cold fronts across the northern states, summer remains firmly in control over much of the United States.

The rainfall pattern reflects this upper-level setup. The strongest monsoon moisture remains focused across parts of the Southwest and Rockies mostly concentrating over Arizona, while repeated storm systems track across the northern tier of the United States. Other areas will experience scattered thunderstorms, but rainfall will continue to be highly variable from one location to the next. The pattern does support some timely rainfall for northern Missouri, one of the areas that could use a good drink of rainfall. Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and much of Kansas also has confidence that it may reach 2” of rain in the next two weeks.

As we begin August, the Atlantic remains quiet, but our three tropical forecast windows remain ahead of us. At the same time, the evolving upper-level pattern is producing significant heat across the western United States while guiding the jet stream across the northern states.

Thank you for joining us for today’s Tropical Update. We’ll return on Tuesday with a deeper look at the jet stream, the evolving August version of the pattern, and what it tells us about the weeks ahead.

Have a great weekend!

Gary Lezak

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report

First, I want to extend a warm welcome to our newest Weather 20/20 subscribers, and thank all of you for being part of our growing community.

Our mission is simple: help you make better decisions before the weather happens. Throughout the year, you’ll receive regular Weather Intelligence Reports that go beyond the daily forecast. We’ll analyze developing weather patterns, highlight potential risks and opportunities, and explain the atmospheric trends shaping the weeks and months ahead. Whether your decisions involve agriculture, transportation, energy, business, or simply planning ahead, our goal is to provide weather intelligence you won’t find anywhere else.

Another major heat wave is poised to develop during the next two weeks. The current heat wave is shifting west right on schedule, bringing dangerous heat to parts of California and the Desert Southwest. As that ridge weakens and moves, the atmosphere will begin reorganizing, setting the stage for another significant surge of heat to develop in roughly a week.

Summer is far from over. While the calendar will soon turn to August and we’ll eventually begin watching for the first hints of fall, the atmosphere still has another chapter of intense summer weather to write before that seasonal transition begins.

The Atmospheric Jigsaw

Before we compare May 13th and July 26th, I’d like to step back and look at the bigger picture.

The atmosphere is like a giant jigsaw puzzle. Every piece matters—La Niña, El Niño, the MJO, AO, NAO, PNA, PDO, AAO—each influences the weather in its own way. But none of these pieces operates independently. They interact continuously to shape the evolving weather pattern.

The Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) is the centerpiece of that puzzle. It provides the framework that helps us understand how all of these atmospheric influences evolve together over time.

The weather pattern that became established last fall is still guiding today’s weather. That’s why we’ve been able to anticipate many of this summer’s major weather events months in advance. At the same time, we’re already watching the next atmospheric pattern begin taking shape. By early October, a new pattern will emerge and guide the weather into next spring.

And there is another important piece of the puzzle. A strengthening El Niño is developing across the equatorial Pacific. As we move toward autumn, it will become an increasingly important influence on the next recurring weather pattern. We will begin the El Niño discussion in a few weeks.

Looking Back to Winter

Before we compare the atmospheric patterns from 74 days ago and today, let’s go back even farther.

On the first day of winter, December 21st, we released our seasonal outlook showing a major mid-summer heat wavedeveloping during late July into early August. At that time, we weren’t relying on long-range computer models. The forecast was based on our analysis of this year’s evolving atmospheric pattern.

A couple of weeks later, I had the opportunity to speak at the FarmCon Conference, where I shared that same forecast with growers from across the country. I remember telling the audience:

“Take a picture of this. Save it. When it happens you'll say, Holy moly...he got it right!"

Today, we’re approaching that period, and the atmosphere is evolving remarkably close to what we anticipated months ago.

Now let’s compare the large-scale atmospheric pattern from 74 days ago with today’s pattern and see why this year’s weather continues to stay on schedule.

The Pattern Stays on Schedule

Now let’s compare the upper-level weather pattern from May 13th and July 26th, separated by 74 days.

Remember, we are not expecting these maps to be identical. The atmosphere is constantly evolving. What we’re looking for is whether the overall atmospheric state has returned in a recognizable way.

Notice the three dominant features.

#1 – The broad anticyclone remains anchored across the southern Rockies and southern Plains. While its exact position and strength have changed, the upper-level ridge continues to be the dominant feature and is now producing another significant heat wave.

#2 – A closed upper-level low is positioned along the Pacific Northwest coast in both patterns. The details differ, but the placement and role of this feature are remarkably similar.

#3 – Another strong upper-level low is located over central and eastern Canada. Again, the exact structure has evolved, but the larger-scale configuration has returned in a familiar way.

When you step back and look at the atmosphere as a whole, the similarities are striking. It is this recurring evolution of the large-scale pattern—not identical storms or identical weather—that gives us confidence in anticipating major shifts weeks and even months in advance, this one 7-months in advance.

And that’s exactly what led us to highlight this late July and early August heat wave long before conventional long-range guidance began showing it. If you look back at December, you will find Kansas City had three waves of warmth which are leading to two to three major heat waves as we move in to August, the strongest of which is likely coming later next week.

How Has the Pattern Performed?

Now let’s look at how the atmosphere has translated into real weather since the beginning of meteorological summer.

The top map shows percent of average rainfall from June 1 through July 28. Rainfall has been highly uneven, just as we often see during the heart of summer. Some regions have received well over 150% to 200% of normal rainfall, while others—particularly parts of California and portions of the Southwest—have remained much drier than average.

One of the biggest stories has been the heavy rainfall across portions of the central United States, including parts of the Corn Belt, where some locations have recently measured six inches of rain in a single event. These timely rains have been beneficial for many crops, although they have also produced localized flooding.

This map below shows temperature departures from average over the same period.

Most of the United States has experienced above-average temperatures, with the greatest warmth centered across the Rockies, High Plains, and portions of the northern Plains. Interestingly, despite several impressive heat waves, much of the eastern United States has been only modestly warmer than average because of repeated thunderstorm complexes, cloud cover, and periodic intrusions of cooler air.

As we move into early August, another significant heat wave is developing. We’ll be watching to see how these maps evolve over the next couple of weeks as this next phase of the recurring atmospheric pattern unfolds.

This Week’s Outlook

Looking ahead to later this week, the atmosphere will become much more active across the central United States.

A summer storm system is forecast to organize Thursday night as a summer cyclone develops over the central Plains. As warm, humid air is available and collides with slightly cooler air dropping south, a strong complex of thunderstorms is expected to form and track toward the Kansas City area Thursday night into Friday.

By Saturday morning, the summer storm system will be lifting northeast into the Upper Midwest. The strongest thunderstorms will have shifted east of the Plains, while a trailing cold front extends southwest into the southern Rockies. Behind the storms, rain-cooled air will provide a brief break from the heat across parts of the central Plains, but that relief will be temporary. As the storm system departs, the upper-level anticyclone will begin strengthening once again, setting the stage for another significant surge of summer heat during the week ahead.

Here is today’s video:

Read more

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report – Tropical Update!

The tropics are fairly active over the Pacific Ocean and rather quiet across the Atlantic Basin. In today’s Tropical Update, we’ll share updated predictions for the remainder of the hurricane season, and we’ll also take a look at the evolving heat wave that is developing right now.

I would like to thank all of our new Premium subscribers for joining us, and thank you to everyone reading today’s report.

On one other note, the Global Predictor has been updated, so be sure to download it from the app stores. It is free for the first 14 days, and you’ll have access to forecasts anywhere in the world for the next six months.

Yes, you can even get your holiday forecast today!

Today’s report will primarily be a video update, as we look back at the track of Tropical Storm Bertha from where this weak storm first formed to why it matters for late September when the current weather pattern cycles back around.

Here is today’s video:

Read more

Welcome to today’s Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report—and a special welcome to all of our new subscribers. We are excited to have you with us as we work to help businesses, farmers, producers, and families make better decisions before the weather happens.

The picture above was taken during my visit to the Ohlde Dairy Farm in northern Kansas a couple of years ago. It is a reminder that weather is never just about maps, models, or temperatures. It affects livestock, crops, operations, transportation, energy demand, and the people making important decisions every day.

Over the next two to three weeks, cattle and other livestock across the central United States, and a few other regions, may experience some significant temperature extremes. A powerful heat wave is increasingly likely, but before the hottest air arrives, a sharp temperature contrast and a notable midsummer cool spell will develop across parts of the nation.

In today’s report, we will examine Tropical Storm Bertha, the severe weather threats, the developing summer cool spell, and the progression toward what could become one of the strongest heat waves of the summer. Most importantly, we will explain why these developments were visible within the larger pattern well before they appeared in the conventional forecast models.

Tropical Storm Bertha will likely have its greatest impact on shipping lanes. The various forecast models continue to show the system remaining weak and likely falling apart by Thursday or Friday.

As you can see on the satellite image above, Bertha’s center is exposed, with no thunderstorms directly over it. Most of the convection—the thunderstorm activity—is displaced south of the center. When thunderstorms are separated from the circulation center, a tropical system usually struggles to intensify.

Thunderstorms could redevelop over the center at any time, but wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere is making the environment unfavorable for significant strengthening.

Here are the official storm names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Our preseason forecast continues to call for 8 to 12 named storms, which is significantly below the long-term average.

Bertha is the second named storm of the season, and based on our outlook, we believe the season will likely progress through Hanna, with a reasonable chance of reaching Kyle later in the year. At this time, we do not anticipate an exceptionally active season extending much beyond that.

Of course, it only takes one storm to have a major impact. That is why we monitor the Atlantic Basin every day, focusing not only on the number of storms but also on where and when the atmosphere becomes favorable for tropical development.

he Barcelona Supercomputing Center has been tracking preseason Atlantic hurricane forecasts from government agencies, universities, and private weather companies—including Weather 20/20—for the past several years.

As you can see, Weather 20/20 issued one of the lowest forecasts for the 2026 season in its April 30 outlook. While there is still a long way to go before the season is over, this independent comparison provides an excellent opportunity to evaluate how the various forecasts perform.

We’ll continue tracking the season together over the coming months to see how our forecast compares with the others as the Atlantic hurricane season unfolds.

Let’s look at the evolving weather pattern right now. But first, an interesting observation.

One of the fascinating aspects of this year’s atmosphere is how consistently the larger-scale weather pattern has been repeating. Throughout the season, we have been tracking what the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) has identified as a recurring interval of approximately 76 days.

Consider what is happening this week.

• Today, Tropical Storm Bertha is moving across the northern Gulf Coast.

• Seventy-six days ago (May 6), there were 26 tornadoes reported near the Louisiana-Mississippi border.

• Seventy-six days before that (February 19), another severe weather outbreak produced 17 tornadoes across Illinois and Iowa.

These are not identical weather events. However, they are examples of the atmosphere returning to similar large-scale states that favor significant weather. The pattern is closely related in each cycle, but the results are often still a bit different, even though related.

This next slide is especially meaningful to me:

While speaking at FarmCon in early January, I had the opportunity and was honored to present our Weather 20/20 outlook for the seasons ahead. During that presentation I paused on this map and said:

“On the first day of winter we made this forecast for a major heat wave. Take a picture of this. Save it. When it happens, you’re going to say, ‘Holy moly...he got it right.’”

That statement wasn’t made after computer models began showing a heat wave. It was made months earlier based on our analysis of this year’s recurring atmospheric pattern.

NOTE: The portion of this year’s recurring weather pattern now cycling through the atmosphere is the same portion that has been signaling the potential for significant heat during the next two weeks.

At the same time, parts of the heart of the Corn Belt just received as much as six inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours, providing beneficial moisture before the hottest weather arrives. There will be more chances of rain before the heat arrives. This will lead to very high humidity

The heat impacts are expected to be widespread across much of the central United States, with the most intense and persistent heat likely centered farther west. The recent rainfall should help reduce immediate crop stress in some areas, but if the heat persists into early August, we’ll be watching closely to see how quickly soil moisture begins to diminish.

I will get to the forecast details, but first here is today’s video:

Read more

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report – Tropical Update.

While the summer anticyclone—our “Heat Wave Creating Machine”—continues to dominate the weather pattern across much of the United States, today’s report will focus primarily on the tropics. We’ll also discuss the evolving weather pattern and what it may mean over the next couple of weeks.

There is a tropical disturbance forming west of Florida and some of the models show intensification into a named storm by early to mid-next week!

As we’ve been forecasting for months, we continue to expect below-average tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin this season.

Eighteen of the 25 government agencies, universities, and private companies had issued their seasonal forecasts by April 30. Since then, seven others have added their predictions, bringing the total we are tracking to 25 forecasts.

I like to compare our prediction to those issued early in the season because forecasters are free to update their outlooks through the end of August. We made our forecast before the season began, and there is no reason to change it. Our forecast emphasizes our patent-pending Weather Predictor Using Weather Cycles, known as the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC), combined with other forecasting techniques.

The Weather 20/20 forecast calls for 8 to 12 named storms this season (the long-term average is 14). We remain among the lowest forecasts issued, with only one private company predicting significantly fewer named storms. The chart below, compiled by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, shows the range of named storm forecasts from all 25 organizations we are tracking.

There has been one named storm so far this season, Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur formed just off the Texas coast on June 17 and dissipated the following day on June 18. It was a weak, short-lived tropical storm that had minimal impact.

The next name on this season’s list is Bertha.

We are monitoring a disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico (America) that is drifting west today:

The HRRR model drifts the Gulf disturbance westward with some organization by Monday, as shown above. The NHC has a 30% probability of development and we will monitor this closely as it drifts west.

We will continue with today’s report, but first here is my explanation of these developments:

The anticyclone is the opposite of a cyclone. During the summer, these anticyclones are best identified at the 500 mb level, about 18,000 feet above the ground.

Today, as shown below, we can see a weaker anticyclone centered over northwestern Colorado and a stronger one over the Atlantic Ocean. The main jet stream is positioned well to the north across Canada.

I have drawn the 570 line on this map. Keep an eye on it. As we move through August and into September, you’ll begin to see this 570 line gradually shift southward as fall approaches. For now, however, it is near its farthest north position of the year.

In a few days, the anticyclone is forecast to get stronger and be centered over southwestern Oklahoma Wednesday and this will allow for some building heat.

The forecast of a major heat wave has been on our “radar” since Christmas, when our winter forecast first identified the potential for an expanding summer anticyclone during the end of July and into August. Since then, each update to our Weather 20/20 Vision Dashboard and our analysis of the evolving weather pattern has continued to support that outlook.

The latest data shows the anticyclone strengthening significantly by July 30. As this “Heat Wave Creating Machine” expands, temperatures are expected to trend well above average across portions of the central and western United States. The exact placement of the strongest heat will continue to evolve, but confidence remains high that a significant heat wave will develop as we move from late July into August.

The overnight GFS (American Model) continues to show this strong heat wave intensifying near the end of the month. We’ll take a closer look at these trends in our Tuesday Weather Intelligence Report, including how they compare to our long-range forecast.

Rainfall patterns have also begun shifting in response to the heart of summer developing and the strengthening anticyclone. The rainfall forecast below shows the American Model’s projected precipitation over the next 15 days. What catches my eye is the developing dry area centered near Kansas and Oklahoma. If this trend continues, it would be consistent with the expanding ridge and increasing heat expected as we head toward the end of July and into August.

Conclusion:

These anticyclones are dominating the weather pattern across much of the Agriculture Belt right now. We’ll be monitoring them closely as we approach what is shaping up to be the strongest heat wave of the summer by the end of the month.

In the meantime, the Atlantic Basin remains quiet, with no significant tropical development expected in the near term. As always, we’ll let you know as soon as something noteworthy begins to develop.

Have a great weekend!

Gary Lezak

Welcome To The Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

First of all, a big welcome to all of our new subscribers, and thank you to those of you who have been following and reading this report for the past few years and for some of you the past 25 years. We truly appreciate your support and look forward to providing weather excellence for many years to come.

Summer has entered one of its most mature phases across North America. As the jet stream reaches its farthest north position of the year, prolonged heat waves dominate many regions while monsoon moisture fuels thunderstorms across the Southwest and Rockies.

Although these weather extremes seem very different, they are both products of the same large-scale atmospheric pattern. From the perspective of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC), the atmosphere remains right on schedule as we move deeper into the summer version of this year’s cycling weather pattern.

The weather pattern is currently being dominated by a rather strong anticyclone, or what we like to call “the heat wave creating machine.” As we move deeper into summer, land masses heat much more efficiently than the surrounding oceans. This natural warming leads to the development of higher atmospheric heights over the southwestern United States. These upper-level high height systems then expand, contract, and migrate around the Northern Hemisphere, guided by the LRC.

Over the past week, the dominant high has shifted and parked itself over the Northern Plains and northern Rockies. The sinking air beneath this upper-level high suppresses cloud development, resulting in hot, dry conditions. Around the periphery of the anticyclone, however, a much different story unfolds. Monsoon moisture is drawn northward from the Gulf of California and eastern Pacific, fueling thunderstorms over the mountains of Mexico and the southwestern United States. This moisture is then carried clockwise around the upper-level high, producing thunderstorms that often spread into the Rockies, High Plains, and occasionally farther east.

The darker regions show the warmer air and the sinking air is best seen on this next map:

That isn’t smoke, although it certainly looks like it. It is actually a color-enhanced water vapor satellite image that highlights areas of very dry air and areas with abundant atmospheric moisture. The darker shades indicate regions where the air is sinking and drying out, suppressing cloud development and preventing thunderstorms from forming.

At the same time, you can clearly see the moisture circulating clockwise around the upper-level high, tracking from east to west across the southern United States. This ribbon of monsoon moisture helped fuel the thunderstorms that produced flash flooding across parts of Arizona last night.

The map of wildfires across North America is rather fascinating, although many of these fires have been devastating and, in some cases, deadly. As we move deeper into summer, fall can’t come soon enough for many of the hardest-hit regions.

Unfortunately, conditions remain favorable for additional wildfire development. Persistent drought, dry vegetation, low humidity, and periodic gusty winds continue to create an environment where fires can ignite and spread rapidly.

Here is today’s Video:

Read more

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

Welcome to July, and a special welcome to all of our new subscribers! We’re excited to have you join the growing Weather 20/20 community. Whether you’re a farmer, agribusiness professional, weather enthusiast, or simply someone who depends on weather to make better decisions, our goal is to provide data and information help you make those profitable decisions and to be informed on what the truth is about the weather patterns and forecasts for the year ahead.

Can you believe we’re already zipping through July? Before long, conversations will shift to harvest, the first hints of autumn, football, and yes...fall weather. Summer is now trying to make itself known with some big time heat forecast to develop in the next week, but where? And, there is a strong cold front showing up for next week that has been in the LRC model output for months already.

In this week’s report, we’ll take a closer look at one of the most important features of the summer atmosphere: the upper-level anticyclone, or what I like to call the “Heat Wave Creating Machine.” Climatologically, this feature favors developing near the Four Corners region, just east of the desert Southwest, where intense summer heating produces the hottest air across North America. If the atmosphere simply settled into its preferred summer state, this ridge would remain nearly stationary for much of the season. Instead, something much more interesting happens. The LRC provides the data and information to predict when these anticyclones are likely to develop/intensify, and just as importantly where they will move.

There has been a lot of hype surrounding this summertime anticyclone. How strong will it become? How hot will it get? How long will the heat last? These are the questions farmers, businesses, and weather enthusiasts are asking across the country. Rather than relying on headlines, let's examine what the latest guidance is actually showing. We'll begin with the latest trends from the GFS (American) Model, but first look at the monsoon moisture that is forecast to rotate around this developing anticyclone:

Moisture from the Gulf and thunderstorm complexes over Mexico will be guided clockwise around the anticyclone, spreading into parts of the United States and southern Canada. At times, this moisture will interact with the jet stream, creating setups for strong to severe thunderstorms.

The latest forecast guidance shows the Heat Wave Creating Machine expanding and strengthening over the next four days. Let’s take an in-depth look.

Let’s track the anticyclone over the next 7 to 10 days. Remember, an anticyclone is the exact opposite of a cyclone, or storm system. Hurricanes, tornadoes, strong low-pressure centers, and even dust devils are all examples of cyclones. Air rises around cyclones, producing clouds, thunderstorms, and stormy weather. Around an anticyclone, the air sinks, compresses, and warms, leading to hotter temperatures and a lower chance of precipitation.

As you glance through the next three slides, watch where the Heat Wave Creating Machine moves. It begins this Saturday centered near its favored climatological position over the Four Corners region. By Monday, it shifts northeast to near Iowa, raising the potential for a developing heat wave across the Corn Belt. But just as that heat begins to build, the anticyclone is forecast to shift back west over Nevada, where California, Nevada, and parts of the Great Basin may begin to sizzle.

The slide above shows a major shift in the weather pattern. The Heat Wave Creating Machine is forecast to strengthen over the Southwest while a deep upper-level cyclone develops and drops southeast from north of the Great Lakes. This developing storm is arriving right on schedule according to the LRC, as we have been forecasting a mid-July pattern change and cold front for months, and then we have our advertised stronger heat wave forecast for the first half of August, so hang on for this summer ride!

The biggest question now is: How strong will this summer cold front become? The next chart shifts from the upper atmosphere to the surface, where you’ll see not only the advancing cold front, but also multiple opportunities for thunderstorms along and ahead of it.

Before we get to the rainfall forecast and an analysis of the forecast through the end of August, here is today’s video:

Read more

Welcome To The Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

Thank you to all of our customers for your continued support through your memberships. Your confidence in Weather 20/20 and the patent-pending Weather Prediction using Weather Cycles allows us to continue developing long-range forecasting tools and actionable weather intelligence for businesses, agriculture, and weather enthusiasts around the world.

As we move into July, heat waves are being hyped up as if they have never happened before. Meanwhile, severe weather season has certainly been active, but is it truly wilder than other years, or has it simply been affecting areas such as Illinois that are not typically considered the severe weather capital of the world?

Illinois has experienced more than 200 tornadoes since this weather pattern became established in October. However, when looking at the nation as a whole, the United States has actually recorded fewer tornadoes during this year’s cycling pattern than last year’s. Through late June, there have been approximately 1,050 tornadoes across the United States this LRC Year (October 5-Current), compared to 1,441 tornadoes during last year’s pattern.

Moisture has perhaps been the biggest weather story of 2026 so far. Kansas City, Missouri, currently leads our sample of agricultural cities in year-to-date rainfall compared to average. At the same time, portions of the Northern Plains and Central Rockies continue to run significantly drier than normal.

The following graphic highlights year-to-date rainfall compared to average for a dozen cities across the Agriculture Belt, providing an important snapshot of the moisture conditions that are setting the stage for pollination and crop development during the heart of summer.

JUNE RAINFALL REVIEW

June turned out to be an interesting month across the United States. The map below shows a stark contrast between the very dry conditions in the West and the much wetter pattern across portions of the nation’s agricultural heartland.

Rainfall was well above average across Kansas and Missouri and extended eastward through the storm corridor across Illinois and into Indiana. Frequent thunderstorm complexes and severe weather events brought repeated rounds of beneficial rainfall to many areas.

Farther north, conditions have also improved somewhat. North Dakota has become wetter, and portions of South Dakota and Nebraska finally received some timely rainfall during the past month. While moisture deficits remain in some areas, these rains have improved conditions heading into pollination and the heart of the growing season.

The June rainfall pattern has generally favored much of the Corn Belt and Central Plains, helping establish a stronger moisture foundation as crops move into their most critical stages of development.

Temperature-wise, June featured a broad corridor of cooler-than-average conditions extending from Montana southeastward into Chicago and portions of the Great Lakes region. Frequent cloud cover, recurring thunderstorm complexes, and repeated rounds of rainfall helped keep temperatures in check across many of the nation’s key agricultural areas.

The combination of timely rainfall and relatively moderate temperatures has created some of the best growing conditions in the country. As shown in the next chart, the most favorable region for crop development currently fans out from eastern Kansas northeastward through Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, and into the Great Lakes.

These areas are entering pollination and reproductive stages with adequate soil moisture, less heat stress, and generally favorable growing conditions. While weather over the next several weeks will ultimately determine final yields, this corridor presently holds some of the strongest potential for crop development as we move into the heart of summer.

Before we get to the forecast details, here is today’s video:

Read more

Welcome To The Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

The next 30-60 days will determine a large portion of 2026 crop yields across the United States. As summer begins, weather during pollination, flowering, and early grain fill becomes the most important factor for corn, soybeans, and specialty crops.

Let’s begin today’s discussion with a look at the rainfall statistics:

A sharp contrast has developed across the nation's agricultural regions. Parts of the central Corn Belt have received abundant moisture, while portions of the Northern Plains and Central Rockies remain significantly drier than normal. These rainfall trends entering pollination season will play a critical role in corn, soybean, and grape development through the heart of summer.

THE NEXT 60 DAYS WILL DETERMINE CROP YIELDS

The rainfall patterns we’ve seen so far this year have set the stage heading into one of the most important periods of the growing season. Now, attention turns to pollination, flowering, and early grain fill.

For corn, pollination is often the most critical stage of development. Across much of the nation, pollination will begin or intensify over the next several weeks. While adequate moisture has improved conditions in parts of the Corn Belt and Mid-South, weather during pollination can still make a major difference in final yields.

Research has consistently shown that weather during pollination has one of the greatest impacts on crop production. Just a few days of excessive heat, moisture stress, or severe weather can reduce kernel counts, affect pollination success, and ultimately lower yield potential.

Using the LRC and current weather trends, Weather 20/20 favors specific regions for beneficial moisture, elevated heat stress, and recurring weather risks through mid-August.

Pollination Outlook:

🟢 Favorable Conditions
Timely rainfall and fewer periods of extreme heat should support pollination and crop development.

🟡 Elevated Stress Risk
Periods of heat and uneven rainfall may create challenges during pollination and flowering.

🔴 High Stress Risk
Persistent heat, below-normal rainfall, and ongoing moisture deficits could place significant stress on crops during their most critical growth stage.

We will now move into the forecast analysis, but first here is today’s video:

Read more

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

What a week! We just experienced one of the signature segments of this year’s cycling pattern, and it delivered exactly the type of weather impacts we anticipated.

The picture above is AI-generated, but the pictures below are real and were taken by Justin Ohlde on the Ohlde Farm in northern Kansas. A severe thunderstorm produced significant hail that shredded the corn crop, damaged corn stalks, and flooded fields with heavy rainfall. Look closely and you can see some of the larger hailstones scattered across the ground.

These are the types of weather impacts that were anticipated well in advance through our pattern recognition and forecasting process. While we certainly wish we could prevent destructive weather from occurring, our goal is to identify these risks before they happen so that farmers, businesses, communities, and families can make better-informed decisions and be better prepared for what lies ahead.

That is the value of knowing in advance.

The Pattern Is Right on Schedule

In the next sequence of maps, we will showcase how the pattern that developed last fall and established an approximately 11-week recurring cycle continues to perform on schedule. The same atmospheric configuration that produced significant weather impacts earlier in the cycling pattern year is still cycling through the atmosphere today.

Before we look ahead, let’s first examine the past three weeks. The following maps demonstrate that we are still operating within the same recurring pattern that formed last autumn. While the seasons are changing and summer officially begins Sunday, the atmosphere continues to follow the rhythm established months ago.

The slide above shows the same atmospheric pattern that developed in late May lined up with a remarkably similar configuration from more than seven months earlier. While the seasons have changed, the atmosphere continues to exhibit many of the same large-scale features that were established during the formation of this year’s cycle.

The map below takes the story a step further. Approximately 12 days later, the pattern continued to evolve on schedule, producing another atmospheric setup that closely resembles what occurred during the original cycle last fall. This is one of the key characteristics we monitor throughout the year: not necessarily identical weather, but the recurrence of similar atmospheric structures and energy patterns.

Now, let’s fast forward to this week.

The next slide highlights the atmospheric setup forecast for tomorrow and our next severe weather risk. The map on the left shows the projected 500 mb flow pattern tonight into early Wednesday morning, compared to what occurred during Cycle 1 nearly 229 days earlier. Once again, the atmosphere is operating within the same approximate 11-week rhythm that has characterized this year’s pattern.

Notice the energy diving southeast across Montana and into the northern Plains. Then compare that feature to what occurred three cycles ago during the formation of the pattern in October. The similarities are difficult to ignore. While no two weather events are exactly alike, the large-scale atmospheric structure continues to evolve in a manner that is remarkably consistent with previous cycles.

As this energy progresses eastward, it will interact with warm, unstable air across the central United States, helping to create another severe weather threat. The exact details will continue to evolve, but the overall pattern once again points toward an increased risk in a region that is consistent with the recurring cycle.

The atmosphere continues to follow the script that was written last fall.

What we just experienced during the past week was the return of a segment of the pattern that I forecast would come back during my presentation at the National Storm Chaser Summit in early February.

At that time, the forecast called for this particular portion of the pattern to return during the past two weeks bringing another elevated risk of severe weather. Since the pattern first formed last fall, this segment has now produced tornadoes in all four cycles, culminating with the significant outbreaks that occurred last week.

This is an important distinction. The forecast was not based on a specific model run or a short-range outlook. Rather, it was based on identifying a recurring atmospheric pattern months in advance and projecting when that pattern would return. As the cycle repeated, the atmosphere once again produced many of the same severe weather characteristics that were present during earlier occurrences.

Now, this statistic may surprise you. Despite the significant severe weather outbreaks we have experienced this spring, tornado activity is actually running well below last year’s pace.

• Since the beginning of this year’s pattern on October 5, 2025, there have been 934 reported tornadoes. During the same portion of last year’s pattern, there were 1,316 reported tornadoes, nearly 400 more than this year.

• Even if we focus only on the annual totals since January 1, the difference remains significant. Since January 1, there have been 874 tornadoes reported this year, compared to 1,085 during the same period one year ago.

Here Is Today’s Video:

Looking Ahead: The Final Week of Spring

Let’s now focus on the developing pattern over the next couple of days.

A significant severe weather risk is taking shape, along with a dramatic weather change that will occur during the final week of spring. As we’ve seen throughout this report, the atmosphere continues to evolve within the same recurring pattern that formed last fall, and the setup now unfolding is another example.

The map below shows the 500 mb flow pattern, highlighting the energy moving through the western and northern United States. As this disturbance tracks eastward, it will interact with warm, humid air already in place across the Plains and Midwest, creating an environment favorable for severe thunderstorm development on Wednesday.

Pay particular attention to the configuration of the jet stream and the pocket of energy moving southeastward across Montana. This overall atmospheric setup supports an increased risk of severe thunderstorms, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

That energy crossing Montana tonight and moving into the northern Plains on Wednesday is helping to produce a classic late-spring storm system.

Take a look at the surface forecast for early Wednesday morning. The area of low pressure is forecast to be centered over southwestern Minnesota, with a strong cold front surging southeastward across the Plains. Ahead of the front, warm and humid air will continue to stream northward, creating a favorable environment for severe thunderstorm development later in the day.

The combination of increasing wind energy aloft, strengthening lift along the front, and abundant moisture will set the stage for thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

There is another feature worth watching as well. Look closely near the southeast Texas coast and you will notice a tropical disturbance attempting to organize over the Gulf of Mexico. While this system is separate from the Plains severe weather threat, it serves as another example of how active and dynamic the atmosphere remains as we approach the official start of summer.

By late Wednesday afternoon, severe thunderstorms will likely be in progress from portions of the Great Lakes region southwestward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, with another area of concern potentially extending into eastern Kansas.

The greatest threat will be located near and ahead of the advancing cold front, where warm, humid air and increasing wind energy will combine to support organized thunderstorm development. Some of these storms may become severe, producing large hail, damaging straight-line winds, and a few tornadoes.

As always, the exact placement of the highest risk area will depend on how the atmosphere evolves during the day. However, the overall setup is consistent with a pattern that has repeatedly produced severe weather episodes throughout this year’s cycle.

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Level 4 out of 5 Moderate Risk for severe weather on Wednesday, centered over portions of Illinois and Indiana. This is one of the higher severe weather outlook categories issued by the SPC and indicates the potential for numerous severe thunderstorms and significant weather impacts.

Within the Moderate Risk area, storms will be capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could become strong. The greatest threat is expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours as the cold front interacts with warm, unstable air across the Midwest.

Notice how the highest-risk area is positioned near the track of the storm system discussed on the previous maps. The upper-level energy diving southeast through the northern Plains is helping to organize the atmosphere for another significant severe weather episode.

While the exact storm tracks will not be known until storms begin to develop, the large-scale pattern is once again signaling an elevated severe weather threat several days in advance.

Inside the Moderate Risk area is an even more concerning signal. The tornado probability forecast highlights a hatched area indicating an elevated risk of strong tornadoes, meaning there is a heightened potential for a strong tornado (EF2 or greater) occurring within 25 miles of any location inside the shaded region.

This corridor extends across portions of Illinois and Indiana, where the combination of atmospheric instability, wind shear, and lift will be most favorable for rotating thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes.

It is important to remember that this outlook does not mean every location within the hatched area will experience a tornado. Rather, it represents a zone where the atmospheric ingredients are favorable enough to support stronger tornado development should discrete supercell thunderstorms form.

The presence of a hatched tornado risk area is one of the indicators forecasters watch closely when assessing the potential for significant severe weather outbreaks. It highlights an environment capable of producing storms that can have substantial impacts on lives, property, agriculture, and transportation.

The highest tornado risk on Wednesday is expected to be focused across parts of Illinois and Indiana, where conditions appear favorable for a few strong tornadoes.

A rather dramatic cold front will be sweeping across the region, with severe thunderstorms developing ahead of the advancing storm system.

The temperature forecast is fascinating. Take a look at the next two forecast maps. Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to soar into the 105° to 110°F range from northwestern Oklahoma southwestward into eastern New Mexico. This intense heat is one of the ingredients helping to fuel the unstable atmosphere that will support severe thunderstorm development farther north and east. But, this time there is a capping layer of warm air aloft that may prevent or reduce the southwestern part of the severe weather risk.

Now, look at the dramatic change forecast for Thursday.

There is a good chance that some locations experiencing 105° to 110°F heat on Wednesday will be 30 to 40 degrees colder just 24 hours later. That is an extraordinary temperature swing, even for the High Plains.

This dramatic temperature contrast is one of the reasons the atmosphere becomes so energized. The clash between hot summer-like air and much cooler air moving southward helps strengthen storm systems and often leads to periods of active weather.

Some farmers are hoping for additional rainfall to support their crops, while many others would welcome a stretch of drier weather to allow field work to continue and saturated soils to dry out.

We will get to the Weather 20/20 LRC day-by-day forecasts for a couple of states in just a moment, but first let’s take a look at the broader picture.

The next two maps show the 10-day rainfall forecasts from both the American and European models. While there are some differences in the details, both models suggest that portions of the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region will continue to see opportunities for meaningful rainfall over the next week and a half.

As always, the exact placement of the heaviest precipitation will depend on where thunderstorm complexes develop and track. However, these forecasts provide a useful snapshot of where the atmosphere appears most favorable for above-average rainfall and where drier conditions may begin to emerge.

The challenge this time of year is that one farmer may be hoping for rain while another just a few counties away is hoping it misses them entirely.

One of the unique advantages of the Weather 20/20 LRC Model is that it extends one full year into the future, allowing us to identify not only broad seasonal trends but also periods that are more likely to be wetter or drier months in advance.

The next screenshots provide examples of the information available through the model. The first outlook highlights the forecast percent of average rainfall, while the day-by-day forecast identifies periods when precipitation is most likely and when drier stretches are expected to develop.

Take a close look at Kansas. One feature that stands out is a longer dry period forecast during the second half of July.While occasional thunderstorms may still occur, the overall signal favors below-average rainfall and fewer opportunities for widespread precipitation during that stretch.

This type of information can be valuable for agriculture, water management, outdoor planning, and a variety of weather-sensitive industries. Rather than simply knowing whether a season may be wet or dry, the goal is to identify when the wetter periods are most likely and when drier intervals may emerge.

Knowing when rain is likely is important. Knowing when it is unlikely may be just as valuable.

Iowa’s forecast is somewhat different from Kansas, with more frequent opportunities for rainfall during portions of the summer. However, one similarity stands out.

Just as we saw in Kansas, the second half of July shows signs of a more prolonged dry period developing across much of Iowa as well. While the exact timing and intensity of individual rainfall events will certainly evolve, the broader signal points toward a stretch where precipitation becomes less frequent and drier conditions become more likely.

This is an excellent example of how the LRC forecast is designed to be used. Rather than focusing on a single rain event weeks in advance, the model helps identify broader wet and dry periods that may influence crop development, irrigation needs, field work, and overall agricultural planning.

As we move through the summer months, one of the key periods we will be monitoring is that mid-to-late July timeframe, where both Kansas and Iowa are showing a tendency toward drier-than-normal conditions.

The next set of maps expands the view across a larger portion of the Corn Belt and Upper Midwest.

The first chart highlights the forecast rainfall totals between now and the end of July for Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. While there will certainly be periods of rain and thunderstorms, notice how the rainfall distribution is not expected to be uniform. Some areas are projected to receive near or above-average precipitation, while others may experience extended dry intervals between rainfall events.

The following chart shifts northward, showing the rainfall forecast across the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.These states remain important to monitor as summer progresses, especially given the recent swings between wet and dry conditions that have affected crop development and field operations.

As always, these forecasts should not be interpreted as exact rainfall amounts for any individual farm or community. Instead, they provide a longer-range outlook of where the atmosphere appears most favorable for wetter or drier conditions as we move deeper into the growing season.

What stands out is that while rainfall opportunities continue across much of the region, there are also signals suggesting that portions of the central United States may experience more prolonged dry stretches during the second half of July, a trend that has already appeared in several of the state-by-state forecasts shown earlier.

Summer rainfall is rarely distributed evenly, and identifying the wet and dry windows can be just as important as forecasting the storms themselves.

Conclusion:

Summer officially begins Sunday. However, as we shared throughout today’s report, the weather pattern continues to cycle and remains right on schedule according to the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC).

Next week, we will take a deeper dive into the Summer 2026 forecast, highlighting the key weather risks and opportunities that may develop during the months ahead.

If you have not yet explored the Weather 20/20 LRC Forecasting Platform, we highly encourage you to take a closer look. This forecasting tool allows you to narrow forecasts down to your county, select specific dates, and gain insights months in advance. Whether your decisions involve agriculture, energy, transportation, construction, commodities, or outdoor operations, having access to long-range weather intelligence can provide a meaningful advantage.

We are also excited to share that an upgraded version of the platform is currently in development and is expected to be released within the next month.

Thank you for being part of the Weather 20/20 community.

Have a great rest of your week, and keep your eye to the sky—it may not stay so dry!

As always, we welcome your comments, questions, and feedback. I will check in later and do my best to respond to any thoughts or questions you may have.

Gary Lezak
Founder & CEO
Weather 20/20

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

As severe weather risks increase across portions of the Corn Belt this week, the atmospheric pattern driving these threats is not a surprise. Weather 20/20 first identified this segment of the pattern last fall and tracked its return through four recurring cycles, allowing risk areas to be highlighted months before the growing season began.

We begin today's report with a map-to-map analysis showcasing one of the most compelling examples of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) this year. The comparison demonstrates how large-scale atmospheric features identified last October have returned again as summer approaches. It is this recurring behavior that allowed us to highlight an elevated severe weather risk window months in advance.

Take a look at what has been happening, what is happening, and how it compares to the first cycle of this year’s LRC. Stare at the maps for a few minutes and the LRC will come into focus.

The first slide above shows the weather pattern from May 27, 2026, when a storm intensified near San Francisco, California. This feature is highlighted on the left side of the chart. Now compare it to October 14, 2025, during the first cycle of this year’s LRC, approximately 225 days earlier.

When that storm first developed over California last October, Weather 20/20 identified it as a significant segment of the pattern and projected that it would return in future cycles. It did exactly that during the Christmas to New Year’s period, and then returned once again in late May.

That represents an atmospheric pattern that was identified and tracked nearly eight months before its latest return.

Now let’s move to what has happened this week. The comparison below may require a few moments of careful examination. We are comparing October 26, 2025, in Cycle 1 with June 7, 2026, in Cycle 4 of this year’s LRC.

Look beyond any single storm system. Focus on the larger-scale arrangement of ridges, troughs, and upper-level lows across North America. Notice the recurring trough over the West, the ridge centered over the Plains and Upper Midwest, and the trough positioned over the East.

This is not an after-the-fact analog. This pattern was tracked through Cycles 1, 2, 3, and now Cycle 4 as it evolved throughout the year. The forecast evolved as the cycle length breathed between roughly 71 and 83 days.

Now that I have established that this is not just a day here or there, but rather the entire weather pattern cycling and returning, and that the pattern we are experiencing right now is remarkably similar to what we saw back in October in what has turned out to be roughly an 11-week cycle, I want to focus on a point we have been making for decades.

The pattern is still similar despite an ongoing shift in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Back in the fall, a weak La Niña influence was in place. Since then, the Pacific Ocean has continued to evolve, and we are now seeing the early stages of a developing El Niño that is expected to have a greater influence in the months ahead.

Yet despite that transition, the recurring atmospheric pattern has continued to show itself. The ridges, troughs, storm tracks, and risk areas have continued to return, even as the background state of the Pacific Ocean has been changing.

We can see this phase shift taking place on this week’s update of the developing El Niño:

There is a lot of hype surrounding the developing El Niño, and that “hype” is likely to increase as fall and winter approach. Yes, there will be impacts from the warmer tropical Pacific Ocean, and I will continue to argue and showcase that there is something even bigger going on.

The way the LRC sets up next fall will help us identify the most likely impacts from El Niño, and we will meticulously analyze those relationships at the appropriate time in October and November.

One of our tropical storm and hurricane predictions is shown below. We are in this part of the pattern right now, and it is due to cycle back through in roughly 11 weeks, give or take a few days, or sometime between August 20 and September 10, which coincides with the peak of hurricane season.

Major Hurricane Melissa formed in this segment of the LRC, so this period has our attention as we continue to monitor the evolution of the tropical season.

While Hurricane Melissa was forming, we were also tracking a severe weather segment of the pattern that produced tornadoes last October. That same segment returned in each of the previous three cycles and produced tornadoes again. Now it is producing tornadoes once more this week.

By January, the evidence suggested a cycle length closer to 10 weeks, or about 73 days. As additional cycles unfolded, it became clear that the atmosphere was breathing within a wider range, at times stretching beyond 80 days before settling back toward the mid-70s. The exact timing shifted slightly, but the underlying pattern remained remarkably consistent.

This is one of the most important lessons from this year’s LRC. The forecast evolved as we refined the timing, but the pattern itself did not change. The same severe weather setups identified last fall continued to return through the winter, spring, and now early summer, helping us identify periods of elevated tornado risk months in advance. Everything has been right on schedule!

We refined the timing as more observations became available, while the pattern itself remained the same.

At the National Storm Chaser Summit in Denver in early February, I clearly showcased the segment of the pattern we are in right now, comparing the January cycle to the October cycle at the time. As additional cycles unfolded, we refined the forecast dates as the atmosphere continued to “breathe,” but the outlook itself did not change.

The severe weather risk area highlighted at the conference was based on the expected return of this pattern segment. As the cycle length evolved from an initial estimate near 73 days toward the mid-70s, the dates were adjusted accordingly. The pattern, the forecast logic, and the anticipated risk area remained the same.

Here is a clip from the conference showing this part of the pattern’s forecast return:

4-Month Forecast Verifying Now

Here are the severe weather risk areas that line up quite closely with the forecast zone I drew in back in January.

Remember, the Weather 20/20 forecast was made four months ago at the National Storm Chaser Summit, and in reality, the forecast traces back nearly eight months to the identification of this pattern segment during the first cycle last October.

The severe weather outlooks for today, Wednesday, and Thursday are short-range forecasts issued just 1, 2, and 3 days in advance. Yet they are aligning remarkably well with the risk zone highlighted months ago based on the expected return of this segment of the LRC.

This is not a forecast based on June climatology. The risk area was identified because the atmospheric pattern responsible for severe weather was expected to return, and now that pattern is cycling through once again.

The chart above shows how tornadoes have occurred during this segment of the pattern in every cycle of this year’s LRC. This particular pattern segment is now four-for-four, or 100%, in producing tornadoes as it has cycled through the atmosphere.

Of course, each cycle is unique, and the exact locations, intensity, and number of tornadoes will vary. However, the consistency of severe weather occurring during this recurring segment of the pattern is difficult to ignore.

Four cycles. Four returns. Four tornado-producing events.

Before we move on to the current setup and our long-range rainfall outlooks through the remainder of June and July, here is today’s video where I walk through the map-to-map comparisons, the cycling pattern, the severe weather forecast, and what it all means moving forward.

Read more

Welcome To The Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report, and thank you to all of our new followers.

Over the coming year, we will bring you weather intelligence, research, and forecast insights designed to help individuals, businesses, and organizations make better decisions. We will also continue sharing the scientific evolution of meteorology and the ongoing research behind the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC).

The analysis in Weather 20/20’s Hurricane Season Guide begins long before the first tropical storm forms. It begins when the year’s weather pattern is born.

For the 2025-2026 season, that process began during the first week of October, when the foundation of this year’s LRC was established. Just a few weeks later, Hurricane Melissa formed in the Caribbean and struck Jamaica as a major hurricane. That same portion of the weather pattern also produced significant severe weather across North America, providing another important piece of this year’s atmospheric puzzle.

In this report, we will examine how the pattern was established, showcase the recurring features that continue to cycle through the atmosphere, and then take a deeper look into the Weather 20/20 Hurricane Season Outlook for 2026.

We begin by examining the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the significant transition underway from La Niña conditions toward El Niño conditions. The chart above shows where we are today and the projections pointing toward a potentially strong El Niño by the coming winter.

ENSO is an important piece of the weather puzzle. However, as Weather 20/20 has demonstrated for more than two decades, there is something larger occurring behind the scenes. While many weather patterns appear chaotic, there is often an underlying order governing the atmosphere. The Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) helps reveal that structure, providing insight into how weather patterns are established, evolve, and repeat throughout the year.

The puzzle graphic below illustrates how ENSO is one of many pieces we analyze. The LRC serves as the foundation of our forecast process, while ENSO and other atmospheric and oceanic factors help refine and enhance the final forecast.

In the next few slides, you will see how the weather pattern that developed last fall continues to repeat today. Despite the changing seasons and a major transition from La Niña toward El Niño, the atmosphere remains remarkably faithful to the pattern established during the autumn of 2025. The weather pattern is cycling on a rhythm of approximately 11 weeks, right in line with what the this year’s cycling pattern anticipated.

Take a look at the chart below showing the 500 mb flow, approximately 18,000 feet above the surface. The map on the left is from October 14, 2025. The map on the right is from May 27, 2026, more than seven months later.

At first glance the maps may appear different, but spend a few moments studying the placement of the ridges and troughs. Notice how the overall structure of the atmosphere is remarkably similar. As you stare at the maps, the LRC begins to come into focus. What appears to be weather chaos is actually an organized pattern repeating itself over and over again.

Let’s now move forward in the cycle. The map on the left shows the pattern on October 25, 2025, while the map on the right shows the forecast pattern for June 7, 2026. These dates occur at nearly the same point within the first and fourth cycles of this year’s LRC.

Take a few seconds and study the maps. Notice the placement of the major ridges and troughs across North America. While there are differences in the details, the overall atmospheric structure is remarkably similar. The weather pattern is once again repeating on schedule, following the rhythm established when this year’s pattern was born last fall.

On these charts I have highlighted the 570 and 540 contour lines in blue to make the larger-scale pattern easier to see. As we move from winter toward summer, the atmosphere naturally changes. The jet stream weakens, shifts northward, and eventually the 540 line disappears altogether. Yet the pattern itself continues to cycle.

This is one of the most important concepts of the LRC. The atmosphere is not a rigid machine; it is a fluid. The pattern oscillates, shifts, and breathes while maintaining its overall structure. The exact placement of individual features may vary slightly from cycle to cycle, but the underlying pattern continues to repeat.

On this next chart, I have advanced just one day forward in the first cycle. The comparison now aligns June 7, 2026 with October 26, 2025, approximately 32 to 33 weeks earlier. Once again, the large-scale pattern lines up remarkably well, demonstrating how the atmosphere continues to follow the rhythm established when this year’s pattern was born last fall.

One of the severe weather segments we highlighted at the National Storm Chaser Summit in Denver has continued to perform remarkably well this year.

During late October, mid-January, and again in late March and early April, this segment of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) produced organized severe weather outbreaks right on schedule. Recognizing the recurring nature of this pattern, we identified this portion of the cycle as one to closely monitor as it returned during the spring and early summer.

At the Storm Chaser Summit, I presented this risk area months in advance. While the exact timing required adjustment as we gained a better understanding of how this year’s pattern was breathing and oscillating, the underlying signal remained intact. In early February, we refined the forecast window to June 5-18.

The map below shows the risk outlook that was presented months before the event window arrived.

This chart that follows tells an important story. I drew in this map based on what we knew in the LRC in January. Let’s see how it sets up next week.

Each time this segment of the LRC has returned, tornadoes have occurred within the forecast window. The October cycle produced tornadoes, the January cycle produced tornadoes, and the late March/early April cycle produced tornadoes. As this segment returns again during the June 5-18 period, the atmosphere is once again signaling an increased risk of organized severe weather.

This does not mean every location within the risk area will experience severe weather. It does mean that the large-scale atmospheric pattern associated with tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flooding has repeatedly returned with this segment of the cycle and is three for three. It is likely to produce again in cycle 4.

Here is the link to our video, and then we go in-depth into the Weather 20/20 Hurricane Season Guide: Today's Summary & Hurricane Season Guide

Read more

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

One of the most interesting developments this year is that the same weather pattern that formed last October continues to show up today. Last fall, the Pacific Ocean was influenced by weak La Niña conditions. Since then, the tropical Pacific has warmed and El Niño conditions are beginning to emerge, albeit very early in its development and we are just moving out of ENSO neutral conditions. Conventional thinking would suggest that such a change should significantly alter the weather pattern. Yet the atmosphere continues to produce remarkably similar upper-level structures, right on schedule within this year’s recurring cycle, and as we have been sharing with you this big secret for over two decades!

The two exhibits below provide examples of this persistence. The first compares the pattern from October 14 with May 27. The second compares October 25 with June 7. While no two days are identical, the similarities are striking and continue to support the idea that this year’s weather pattern is cycling forward in time rather than being completely restructured by changing ocean temperatures.

We begin with the phase change currently taking place over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Last October, the atmosphere was operating during a weak La Niña event. During the past eight months, the Pacific has transitioned into a developing El Niño, which many forecasts suggest could strengthen significantly by late fall and winter.

What does this mean for you? We will explore that question in much greater detail in the coming weeks. One fact is already becoming clear, however. While the ENSO phase has changed, the overall weather pattern has not changed nearly as much as many would expect. The seasons are changing, and the weather is expressing itself differently, but the underlying atmospheric pattern continues to recur.

It is, in many ways, “the same, but different,” as the late Gary England said to me in 2010 when he experienced the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) in action. The examples in this report provide another look at how the atmosphere continues to remember and repeat its pattern despite a changing tropical Pacific.

Last week, we showed this side-by-side comparison of what occurred in October and how the same pattern returned right on schedule 225 days later. As shown below, this compares Cycle 1 and Cycle 4 of this year’s weather pattern. The similarities are striking.

What makes this example particularly noteworthy is that Weather 20/20 forecast this pattern to return near the end of May months in advance. The maps are not identical, nor should they be. The seasons have changed, and the atmosphere is expressing itself differently. Yet the overall structure of the pattern remains remarkably similar.

Now let’s fast forward another eleven days and something remarkable appears. A strong jet stream is forecast to move across the West Coast later this weekend, producing a pattern that looks strikingly familiar.

Take a look at the comparison below. The pattern developing over North America during the next few days closely resembles what occurred on October 25, 2025. Once again, the atmosphere appears to be following the same blueprint, despite the changing seasons and the ongoing transition from La Niña toward El Niño conditions.

There are many features worth tracking in this comparison. One is subtle and may surprise you. Another is much easier to see.

Read more