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Images from TropicalTidbits.com

Temps are actually below normal thanks to the main ridging pulling up north, leaving us in the South with more clouds, rain and cooler temps.

Temps in the 70s in some areas of the MidSouth and Gulf to Texas Tuesday again with all the moisture around…this beats upper 90s for sure.

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Its broad enough that above normal temps are scorching the Plains through Texas up to the Northeast and of course, we in the South. The worst of the worst is where there’s severe drought combined with sinking air ri…

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Images from TropicalTidbits.com and NOAA

This type of flow means fast moving upper impulses approaching, not true Gulf flow or “Popcorn” storms, but there’s still enough moisture in the Deep South so any little thing can help with showers and storms. This midweek into Friday, a weak closed or possibly tropical wave type of low, will try to roll north coming into coastal Texas then get forced east by Thursday going through Mississippi, Alabama toward Georgia and SC region, ahead of a cold front broadly approaching from the Plains on Northwest flow. So the Gulf Coast states could get soaked nicely, depending on the exact track and how well developed it gets. Looks like minimal chance for true Tropical development but still some high res models spit out big rain totals over a narrow region especially once it begins turning east in central Mississippi. The verdict is out on how far north to lift the rain shield Thursday and Friday but below is the RGEM, which looks ok. Notice a tight cut off in northern Alabama to across central and west NC, compared to bigger totals immediately south of there. And some very impressive rain totals (Maybe flooding rains) possible in part of LA and MS to AL region.

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The front will have a wave develop and buck north a little Sunday into Monday, so expect showers and storms south and along the boundary, pushing north into Carolinas again the next couple of days, but then by Tuesday, a stronger backdoor front will sweep much further south.

There’s a chance a spin up low near the NC Outer Banks could form Wednesday or Thursday, since the main high pressure hangs so far back in the Lakes and Ohio Valley for a while, so if you have vacation plans along the NC coast especially be aware of that. Otherwise, this front will drive far south, to northern Floriday by later Wednesday and Thursday, providing a big relief in both temps and humidity most areas of the Southeast, including northern Florida.

PWATS Saturday evening

Then later next week

A strong high pressure for early June settles in behind this front. Bonus for Summer!

Wednesday and Thursday pressure anomalies shown

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There’s some upper blocking in Canada that will force the westerlies to buckle and send impulses ejecting across the South several times…all of those impulses working with lower height fields (which is the synoptic sign rain is coming) and south flow at all levels and rich moisture-laden air (high Precipitable Waters). In other words, Summer time heat and humidity will lead to an abundance of easily-developing daily showers and storms across the board. Gone are the inhibitory factors like downslope drying, or dry west-northwest flow patterns. This is the real deal. You’re gardens and crispy lawns get a drink of water—and then some. At some point, some areas in the Southeast may get so many repeated rounds of recurring rain-trains, that some flooding issues could arise.

Images from TropicalTidbits.com and PivotalWeather.com

Short term RGEM totals through midday Sunday. Enhanced totals along the Spine and foothills of the Apps, and again repeating big complexes in Texas to Louisiana to Mississippi.

Upper pattern shows an upper low in the Deep South, which is a recipe for wetness in the South.

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Before we get to the wetter, more humid and nearly Summer-like weather though, we have two more cold fronts that will drop well south soon. So enjoy the nice weather and low humidity and comfy airmass while you can, because you know what real Summer feels like, when it truly arrives, and we’ll be wishing for this type of cool, crisp weather again.

Images from TropicalTidbits.com

Tuesday Morning Dewpoints

And another distinct cold front pierces through by Thursday morning.

That Thursday-Friday cold front will drop temps to the upper 30s in the Apps and lower 40s all the way to north Mississippi to northern Georgia, which is nice for this time in May. Look at the anomalies in blue, indicative of below normal temps.

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Here’s the upper air setup showing the squeeze play coming. This always ends up a nail biter (and we’re only talking rain here—well mostly (could be a flake high mountains). But it’s a nail-biter because we all want to get soaked. The guaranteed soaking is the Deep South, from Texas to most of central and southern parts of MS-AL-GA….the north edges of those states though are where the tight shutoff to rain will be, and that tight shut off likely translates to somewhere in NC. Usually, there’s good redevelopment in eastern third of NC and Southeast VA as the final vort lifts north or jogs north, east of the Apps (thats the usual anyway). We’ll see.

Model Images from TropicalTidbits.com

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Here’s a look at overall rains next two weeks, roughly (the new AI ECMWF model ensemble) from Tropicaltidbits.com. It shows much improved rain chances, especially the Deep South across the Gulf States, and even more chances east of the Apps—but still the lion’s share likely west of the Apps, in keeping with the pattern. This is the result of some ridging building now and holding for a while in eastern Canada to southern Greenland, just like we see in Winter sometimes. The net effect, is cooler temperatures, because of a lack of Bermuda ridging or strong Gulf inflow, and a depressed jetstream. This is good news for both temps and rain as the temps will be held in check (below normal often) and the rain chances are going up because of disturbances running across the Southern US every few days, tapping the Gulf.

Look at the upper air animation and 24 hour rain increments as well, which show the pattern nicely. It is much more active than the last long while for sure.

Before we get to that much cooler pattern, here’s the next short term look from SPC on severe storms as another upper wave moves across the Plains and then into Tenn Valley by Monday. Sunday also has a slight severe chance for areas further South into Mississippi, so be on guard for hail, high winds and severe weather with any storms.

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Lows Tuesday morning. This is a comfortable airmass in all the Southeast thanks to northwest winds coming in but it’s just a continuation of the very dry air….and temps will get near freezing by Tuesday predawn in western Virginia, the northern NC mountains northward for a few hours.

Maps from TropicalTidbits.com

Look at the dry air via the dewpoints. The blob of dryness downwind of the Apps is shown nicely….and lasts all week long.

Even Friday….the blob of dry air is entrenched in the far Southeast, versus a good return flow of humidity for western parts of the Southeast up through Chicago region. Dry ground feeds dry ground and we have just that in the bulk of Alabama, Georgia, Carolinas, Florida up through the MidAtlantic.

I wish I had better news on some rain chances but the drought will just get worse. The pattern is stuck on repeat. And I’m afraid the writing is on the wall—repeating pattern will just keep repeating. We’ll warm up, get more humid (mostly west of the Apps), then have more northwest flow fronts come through, and drop our humidity and temps back again, going into May the way it appears now. There was some hope a better flow pattern could happen in late April, with some Negative NAO blocking up north, that could enhance rain chances in the South, and that is still a slight chance, but I’ll be honest and say I don’t expect much east of the Apps even if it does get slightly wetter west of the Apps again. This is basically the same repeating pattern coming up. Some rain (mainly western Tenn Valley to Texas and Arkansas), then cooler, drier….then warmer and slightly more humid, before we get back to a northwest flow again. Each front that comes through simply doesn’t have much Gulf tap going with it, thus, just not a lot of rain. This Spring is certainly dry, compared to just last year for example when May was loaded down with storms (some of the biggest rains and longest thunderstorm complexes I’ve ever seen at my location in NC).

The totals through 360 hours (about 15 days) via ECMWF ensembles. Useful for trends, and nothing new is shown really. Decent totals may occur in the lower Mississippi Valley thanks to the storm track still coming through the Miss. River region to the Lakes and Northeast, bypassing the far Southeast. But probably below normal across the board compared to where we all should be this time of year.

The 2 to 3” totals shown in the lower Plains to western Tenn Valley is better than nothing for sure, and much better than what Florida to Georgia and Carolinas can expect as those areas will see their drought worsen exponentially, day by day, week by week, with no let up in sight, unfortunately.

As mentioned, we are in repeat mode. After brief rain chances very late April, here comes the next broadscale northwest flow (and below normal temps, although this doesn’t look as cold as the current cool snap). This pattern will just be yet another wind maker, fire hazard, stirring up dust and with its low dewpoints just exacerbate the fire risks.

A look at 10 and 15 day upper air maps. Not good and not what you want to see really to get rain chances going. Too much eastern troughing and more northwest flow fronts (which usually don’t tap the Gulf much, especially east of the Apps range)

And the temp anomaly maps show the incoming cooler temp anomalies late April and early May in atleast 2 distinct rounds.

The above maps are great if you want to avoid the Summer heat and humidity though. The April and May sun can atleast heat up daytime highs nicely, even with northwest winds and the dry air and darkness at night allows for great temperature drops. Perfect weather for getting outdoor projects done, like painting, staining and mulching and relaxing while overnight camping. But terrible for backyard gardens and farmers, and landscapers who depend on regular rains to keep the grass cutting jobs going. My yard is cracked and bone dry now.

Here is the drought outlook from NOAA through end of July. This takes into account the upcoming developing El Nino, but that phenomenon won’t have much effect yet, except later in the Summer when most likely, the temps do get very hot. But this is an interesting dilemma if you dive deep into June and July for example, because I’ve seen both La Nina and El Nino have either cool or warmer than normal temps, regardless of rain totals. So I’m not sure how our temps will shake out this Summer. Last Summer was brutally hot and when we got dry (even though it was humid) the consistency of the high temps in upper 90s was amazing for a few weeks for both June and July (which coincided with little rain). If I had to guess, we will bounce between cooler temps, with northwest flow, giving us cooler reprieves, especially at night, thanks to dry air invasions but still somehow manage some pretty hot days too, again thanks to dry air heating up very efficiently. Usually though, El Nino will yield a VERY hot Summer. I’m not sure if this one will, or if it does it more in the Summer, or the Fall. Already, I’m eyeing a very warm Winter next Winter though, thanks to the chances of a strong El Nino.

Here’s a look at the current Sea Surface temp anomalies (SST). You may have heard of a possible upcoming “Super El Nino”. While that is possible, remember that a few years ago models also predicted one, and we got a La Nina—so it was totally a bust. But overall, all things considered, right now I think we are heading for a strong El Nino, maybe like 82-83, 97-98, 02-03, or the one in the mid teens. As you know, our patterns go from one extreme to another, so getting a strong El Nino is probably to be expected, just using that anecdote, which seems to work more often than not. But since its early on in Spring, the models can be way off here, so we’ll evaluate this again by mid Summer or so to see where we are. But I’ll say, that since we’ve had 2 very dry La Ninas now, we are coming due for the flip pattern. Seems to always go like this. Rivers are running low now, but by next Winter, we may be experiencing the exact opposite, and it just won’t stop raining, with raging rivers. Seen that many, many times now.

And the “potential” anomaly maps coming up. Notice some models go to an extreme look in the equatorial Pacific. The anomalies could reach over 2 degrees above average esp. around Nino 3.4 region which would mean wet-wet-wet would be likely coming atleast for the Southwest and probably the entire southern USA (but keep in mind sometimes El Nino does NOT get us that wet and rarely, we may actually have a cold Winter too, but more often than not, they are warm). So, assuming we do get a moderate or strong El Nino by next Fall and Winter, I’d anticipate a very warm Winter. Again, using just some past experience, and seeing how we just came off a robust cold Winter (even back to back pretty cold Winters in the MidSouth), if its an El Nino Winter, it certainly wouldn’t shock me to see it be a very warm one. Most are, but again, not all are. (02-03 and 09-10 are some stand out El Nino Winters that were some of the best cold and snowy Winters I’ve ever seen here in NC). But usually, the latest trends are, when I see an El Nino coming, I expect a very warm Winter. It won’t work all the time—just most of the time, especially looking at the recent El Nino episodes.

So, right now…..dry. But at some point later this year, probably MUCH later—we’ll likely be dealing with increased hurricane activity and then a spectacularly wet pattern. Its really impossible right now to say even remotely when that flip will happen. But odds are, it will indeed happen. But things will get a lot drier and much worse for the drought, before we flip the switch.

How the drought officially looks as of late:

But the lion’s share of the rain will be in the midsection to the western part of Kentucky/Tenn region back to lower plains thanks to the storm track coming up from the Southwest, hitting the Southeast ridge and shoving systems off into the Lakes region (bypassing the Southeast).

Model images are from TropicalTidbits.com

Latest 10 days cumulative rains on GFS. Not a drop most of Virginia, Carolinas, Georgia to much of Florida and Alabama.

NOAA maps concur (but they look too bullish to me on their percentage maps considering how dry its been and continues to look)

The “near” normal east of the Apps is sort of misleading…on the one hand April averages are a little lower, but even considering that, there’s nothing really on the horizon, so I doubt most of GA, or Carolinas or VA even get to “near normal” in this period.

10 day cumulative on operational GFS showing storm track out west, and then cutting up from lower Plains to the Lakes region.

The one brief chance for the Gulf to open quickly (before getting totally closed immediately after 8 to 10 hours during this passsage) is around next weekend ahead of a strong cold front. But again, its fast moving and the upper height field synoptically just doesn’t turn southwest aloft enough, nor long enough to really get a good soaker started. And again, most of the rain will fall west of the Apps, with little to none east of the Apps.

That front will usher in much cooler air too, and of course, coming from the northwest, will be very dry again. The fire danger will grow exponentially, thanks to increased winds, lack of rain, and still opening vegetation and preceding dusty grounds. Be very careful outdoors. I expect wildfires to really increase in activity in the Apps and outside the Apps, especially eastern side, very soon.

Temps again will be lower during that period Sunday through Monday with new cool high pressure in the Eastern states, and much lower dewpoints. So expect chilly mornings again, just like what we had recently.

That pattern above is a spectactular weather pattern—if not for the fact we desperately need rain now. My lawn was cut short a few days ago and is about dead now and the dry yard is starting to crack. Rivers and streams are running low faster and faster too, following the dry Fall and Winter and Spring thus far.

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Model Images from Tropicaltidbits.com

Sunday at 8 AM EDT

The PWATS map (moisture) shows the incoming difference, with much drier air again and northwest winds coming back, with colder temps surface and aloft, being driven by a pretty large surface high. That will definitely flip our temps from the recent 70s and 80s back down to the 60s for highs for many and lows in the 40s through midweek with some 30s for the Apps and the Kentucky to NC/VA regions even outside the mountains.

PWATS later Monday show the front pushing through the Gulf Coast, but stalling in Florida.

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But for now, the pattern is pretty tame. I can summarize it easily by showing the predominant flow pattern aloft: Flat Ridging, with still some tendency for a trough (fronts) over the Lakes and Northeast. Some of these try to backdoor down into the Southeast, but not many look to make it through with any real strong cooling wedges behind them for a while now.

Monday Snapshot. The heart of the heat ridge is out West, but overall above normal is dominating the majority of the country now, except far Northeast. Still though, that trough up there is just enough to slide a brief backdoor front down the Eastern Seaboard and that’s where it will stall and wash out early next week.

Model Images from TropicalTidbits.com

Snapshot: Tuesday. Moisture tries to focus in the far Southeast, especially coastal Georgia, but there won’t be a huge focus, so no big totals. Just cooler temps and a wind shift north of that front, driven in by a High over the Ohio Valley. Much cooler temps briefly in the MidAtlantic on Tuesday. Clouds hang tough in the Gulf States.

PWATS same time frame

Late week the flat southern ridging still covers the Southeast, with no real rain makers around, but once again another weak backdoor front will try to slide in from the Great Lakes and push toward the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas region by Friday into the Weekend.

But all models are very weak on any real rain from it too. But do keep in mind that even though there probably won’t be widespread severe weather (since this is coming from the north), any cold air aloft can be enough for hail and supercells locally, as the atmosphere is unstable. Just don’t expect widespread rain from this type of front. Behind it, another windshift and slighly cooler next weekend, mainly again the Tenn Valley to Carolinas, northward.

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First, we must watch out for the severe chances as they ramp up fast late Sunday along the Mississippi River first. Ahead of that, in eastern Georgia up through Carolinas, return flow Sunday will bring in just rain showers and south winds.

Images from NOAA and TropicalTidbits.com

Severe Outlook Sunday into early Monday

Monday into Monday Night

The strength and depth of this trough is very impressive, but not unexpected for March. It happens sometimes, even after a warm spell. Get ready for temps of 20 something coming to much of Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Carolinas early next week.

The Severe line gets going and organized crossing the river later Sunday, and will grow with time and become a wind maker right along the leading edge of the squall line as it cuts through the Southeast Sunday night and Monday. But a lot of snow is coming to the Lakes and behind this storm, wrap around will create the biggest snow storm of the Winter in Wisconsin to part of Michigan. 2 Feet of snow…with strong winds and blizzard conditions there. Below zero Wind chills. In March. Yuck.

Insane snow totals for the Midwest and western Lakes region thanks to the storm taking the perfect track (they get overrunning major snow to start, then wrap -around blizzard snow to finish) with a total QPF over 2” liquid equivalent. Central and northern Wisconsin is the epicenter of this late season behemoth.

850 mb temps Monday night show the upper freezing line well into the Gulf itself, and heading for the Southeast Coast.

The lows on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be cold in the Southeast (and subzero in the areas of Minnesota/Wisconsin where deep snow and high pressure is in place). So, yes this is a pretty impressive late season cold snap for sure.

A relatively quick rebound returns mid week, first west of the Apps and then by Thursday-Friday east of the Apps with warm temps again showing up. But as you know by now, we still won’t fully be done with Winter really….another cold snap does show up in the distance. So, temps are back and forth, and still I say don’t fall for the trap of attempting any outdoor gardens just yet.

Friday Afternoon Warmth sprawls again.

Surface maps morning and early afternoon Thursday.

The weekend looks nice though, after a cooler (much cooler compared to last week or so) in the Southeast. Afternoon temps rebound to 60s mid south, 70s deeper south, despite below normal temps to start both Friday and Saturday mornings.

As I mentioned recently, we bounce back to a colder pattern soon, but atleast it will be short lived. But this next cold front slicing through the Tennessee Valley early Monday will be a very strong push of cold air—well below normal for late March. Unfortunately, after a big push of growth and green-up lately, this strong freeze may do some damage to places like northern Alabama and northward, where the coldest temps are coming. This looks like a hard freeze a couple consecutive nights too. Some teens may occur in part of Tenn and NC and into Kentucky, VA, WV as well, so this new airmass will be quite a shock. It happens though in March sometimes and I suspected we weren’t done with the very cold temps, but atleast this airmass won’t hang around long.

Surface Map Monday shows a very strong upper and surface low in the Lakes, an actual blizzard technically, wrapping around Wisconsin into Chicagoland region, which will drive quite the strong cold front southeastward. There will be a narrow line of moisture ahead of it, but right now, severe chances look low.

PWATS map shows the cold (and dry) plunge coming in. Relief from allergies and pollen briefly, anyway.

The 850 maps show -12 Celsius dipping as far south as northern TN, NC region with the 0 line reaching northern Florida. That’s quite a cold blast this late in the season. So, hopefully nobody started their real outdoor gardens yet anywhere in the Southeast north of Tallahassee. The good news is that the winds will turn quickly southwest by midweek, first in areas west of the Apps and along the Gulf, then east of the Apps, so the warmth will come back then. But this certainly a reminder that Spring is a transition season and we can still get cold blasts. Soon, they will be no more though, and by May and June, we’ll be wishing for a taste of this kind of air again, as we soak and sweat in dewpoints in the 70s with actual temps in the 90s. Enjoy and make the best of it, while you can.

Here’s the current upper flow. As that upper low in the Southwest moves east this week, it will continue to draw up moist air and keep temps warm. By Thursday though theres a new northwest flow front dropping in to catch this southern system, and finally clear out the Southeast (all but Florida) by late week, with cooler temps coming in. Some 30s and near freezing likely in the higher mountains by Friday and Saturday mornings.

850 temps take a tumble, especially compared to where we have been lately. But this isn’t a hard freeze and probably not as cold as what the next cold front can do the following week. See below

Image: 850 temps and winds, cold advection follows the cold front. Watch out for strong showers and storms ahead of the front later Wednesday west of the Apps and crossing the Apps and into Piedmont Thursday.

The chilly air behind this front doesn’t last long, and isn’t that impressive for daytime, now with the much higher sun angle, as temps in afternoons rebound fine. It will be a great weekend most areas with lots of sunshine and nice afternoon, fresh temps—but with dry air in place, temps drop quickly after dark.

Afternoon Highs Saturday and Sunday

By next week, all guidance has a strong northwest flow system, complete with a fairly big high coming down, with colder 850 and surface air. All ensembles show this as below normal temps lasting a few days across the South, especially east of the Mississippi River next week. Right now, there doesn’t appear to be much severe threat in front of it, thanks to a more northwest flow and westerly flow (not a due south Gulf Tap). Still, anytime a front in Spring comes through, with any cold air aloft, be suspicious of hail. Especially any northwest type of front.

The timing is iffy, and each model has a different time frame to push this front through. But generally looks like Monday or Tuesday. And then gets re-inforced much of the week (dry re-inforcements). So here comes that inevitable, yet predictable, cold snap we always get after a big warm up in early Spring.

PWATS map shows the big dry slug of air out of Canada approaching the Southeast.

Low level temp anomalies (GFS ensemble)

There will be a fast moving (west to east) wave traversing Missouri through Kentucky to Virginia Monday, with enough cold air damming in eastern West Virginia to part of western VA and northern VA for a light mix, or snow near the northern edge, but overall this is a very light event. South of there, temps are warming up already. So for all intents and purposes, the Deep South starts Spring…NOW. Just a minor delay though north of I-40.

Model Images from TropicalTidbits.com

The clouds will hang on through early Tuesday in damming regions east of the Apps, but south winds and more sun will already be the rule elsewhere and temps respond all week long. Some clearing may occur late Tuesday in part of VA and NC that was dammed in Monday, and will certainly clear there by Wednesday.

Cloudy parts of GA, Carolinas and western Gulf to start Tuesday, but most of all this should burn off with increasing warm flow and higher sun angle.

Warmer and warmer through the week with a building offshore Southeast Bermuda type of ridge.

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