Subscribe or upgrade now

Share

The first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 is taking longer to develop than Grand Theft Auto VI, but the hurricane season is nevertheless finding ways to make its presence felt on the margins. The season’s climatologically most active three-week period kicked off with its third tropical storm to scrape along the western Gulf Coast, as the remnants of Edouard bring locally significant flooding to east Texas. Still, the historically fraught Labor Day weekend will pass with zero hurricanes on the board, and longer term the coast looks about as clear as it ever will in early September.

The irritant du jour is Tropical Depression Edouard, which as of Wednesday afternoon is winding down northeast of Houston. Edouard spun up Monday over the northern Gulf along a stalled frontal boundary, developing quickly due to waters in the upper 80s and light shear. While it was (and remains) a compact system due to dry air surrounding it, the well-organized low-level structure of Edouard allowed it to make a last-minute run to strong tropical storm intensity prior to reaching Port Arthur, Texas on Tuesday afternoon. The peak coastal wind gust was a near-hurricane-force 71 mph on the Texas-Louisiana border, though Edouard’s diminutive scope kept all impacts modest in Houston and Lake Charles.

The real punch of Edouard, like many “weaker” systems, has come in the form of localized excessive rainfall and flash flooding. While most of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas picked up 1-3” or less, parts of four counties in Texas have seen 8-16”+ and counting through noon on Wednesday. NWS Flash Flood Warnings and even a few rare Flash Flood Emergency alerts are in effect in this area. The flash flooding will be exacerbated by Edouard’s residual tether to Gulf moisture, which is allowing it to still look like a mini-hurricane on radar nearly a day after landfall. Rain should wrap up in eastern Texas on Thursday, following light impacts from Edouard for most and severe, life-changing flooding for a few.

What’s next in the Tropics? Nothing much. Tropical Storm Dolly lasted less than a day late last week before being fed into the wind shear woodchipper as it approached the Lesser Antilles; nothing remains of ex-Dolly, and chances of regeneration are zero.

Interestingly, how models handled Dolly scaffolds with their WeatherTiger tier rankings: only the C-tier ICON and Canadian models consistently showed reformation. A small proportion of the ensemble members of A- and B-tier models like the Euro, Euro-AI, Google Deepmind, and GFS did suggest this possibility, but dropped it once ex-Dolly tracked directly over the islands, even while the ICON and Canadian persisted in their folly. Moral of the story, C-, D-, and F-tier models are ranked there for a reason, and any weather source that showed you the scarier stuff cherrypicked less trustworthy guidance for clicks and fear. The quiet 2026 season is the winter of #content for pages like Gulf Coast Xtreme Hurricane/Monster Jam ALERT HQ (especially with Dennis Anderson also on an extended hiatus from Guh-rave Digger), so such social media antics will continue. But you know better.

Anyhow, there are no other tropical disturbances of note in the Atlantic, Gulf, or Caribbean today. Wind shear was already impossibly hostile for development across the Caribbean in August, but long-range models indicate that similarly harsh conditions are likely to spread over much of the eastern Tropical Atlantic as well within the next week. This may well be a permanent state of affairs for the rest of the season, zonking out the entirety of the Atlantic’s Main Development Region. That wind shear axis is an El Nino signature, and the still-intensifying 2026 event is among the five strongest Ninos since 1875. If this El Nino was a Jedi, its midichlorions would be off the scale, Force-shearing possible Cape Verde hurricanes right out of existence.

Elsewhere, disorganized showers are percolating east of Florida, and will drift west and bring somewhat above-average daily thunderstorm chances to the state and Gulf Coast through Labor Day weekend. A front slipping down the U.S. East Coast early next week will also boost rain chances, and should stall out from the northern Gulf to Bermuda by the middle of next week. Theoretically, that general area might be the next region to watch for slow development heading towards mid-month, but there’s nothing specific to monitor at this point.

That means nothing to worry about in the Tropics for another week or more, which is great because early September is when U.S. tropical storm and hurricane landfalls are most common. No complaints that this weekend, I’ll be sipping playful, fruity LaCroix flavors recreationally, rather than chugging workhorse varieties plus AriZona teas to fuel round-the-clock forecasting. (Key lime is a business flavor, pamplemousse is a party flavor.) Whatever your natural essences of choice, slam them in moderation this Labor Day, savoring all the while the minimal necessity to keep watching the skies.

Subscribe or upgrade now

Share

Almanac: It’s Friday, September 1st… day 93 of the 2026 hurricane season, 90 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 28.4%, 42.8%, and 27.6% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

Active Storms: Tropical Storm Edouard is continuing the 2026 tradition of what modest activity there is in the Atlantic Basin almost exclusively taking the form of tropical storms scraping along the Gulf Coast. That said, Edouard is the most impressive of the bunch, with a well-organized radar presentation this morning as it is centered about 70 miles south of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Per a 10 a.m. ET NHC update, sustained winds are now 50 mph, and Edouard is putting together half an eyewall meaning winds are likely to increase notably during its final 4-8 hours over water. The NHC has landfall intensity of 65 mph, and Hurricane Watches are up along the TX/LA border regions within a larger area of Tropical Storm Warnings from Galveston Bay to south central Louisiana (see above). Storm Surge Warnings are also in effect for much of this area for the potential of 3-5’ of surge, though fortunately Edouard’s early afternoon landfall looks well-timed to occur at low tide.

As mentioned yesterday, Edouard is a compact system: tropical-storm-force winds extend a minuscule 25 miles or so north of the center. This may allow it to strengthen quickly on approach to land, but will also keep its surge, wind, and rain impacts localized, even as it packs a surprising punch for a few spots. The latest NWS Hurricane Threats and Impacts product continues to highlight the TX/LA border region as the area most likely to see high-end tropical-storm-force wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph along the immediate coast as Edouard comes ashore this afternoon, with a broader region of gusts topping out at 40 to 55 mph from Galveston to Lake Charles, including inland areas. You can monitor the latest from NWS Lake Charles on expected impacts here.

An organized core means that even though Edouard should be moving west-northwest at a decent clip at landfall and will wind down quickly once inland tomorrow, there may well be a localized area of flood impacts. While general storm totals from Southwest Louisiana into eastern Texas will be 2-4”, some 4-8” accumulations will likely occur along or just west of the track of the center, including possibly in portions of the Houston Metro area where Flood Watches are in effect. With many vulnerable and low-lying areas in the region, all residents of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana should be carefully following Edouard’s progress through tomorrow, and be ready to react to protect life and property if and when your local NWS office potentially issues flood warnings.

Overall, Edouard won’t have widespread severe impacts, but it could well cause significant problems on a smaller scale. Don’t underestimate it if you’re in the Houston to Lake Charles swath. Outside of that area, impacts will be negligible.

Disturbances in NHC outlook, with 2-/7-day development odds: None.

Elsewhere: Nothing remains of the remnants of Dolly, and there are no other disturbances or U.S. threats of note over the next 8-10 days. Amazingly, just one of the 50 members of the Google Deepmind ensemble shows any development in the Deep Tropics over the next 10 days during the climatological peak of hurricane season.

Next report: Weekly column out early tomorrow afternoon wrapping up Edouard and looking at how models performed with Dolly and Edouard.

Almanac: It’s Monday, August 31st… day 92 of the 2026 hurricane season, 91 days to go… the halfway point! By total storm energy, the season is 26.6%, 42.0%, and 27.0% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

As we celebrate the halfway point of hurricane season (on the calendar) and the final day of meteorological summer, we are also staring down what is historically the most active 10-day period for Atlantic named storm development. On average, 1-2 storms form over the next week and a half, with development points scattered far and wide but most concentrated in the eastern Tropical Atlantic and the Gulf.

Active Storms: The Eastern Tropical Atlantic remains kaput, but the Gulf continues to eke out some modest activity in 2026. The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five as of 11 a.m., which is about 200 miles southwest of New Orleans in the northern Gulf. Sustained winds per a Air Force Hurricane Hunter circling PTC 5 this morning are relatively light at around 35 mph, and the system is sliding west-northwest at around 5 mph. On that track with a northwest bend, PTC 5 should reach the east Texas coast tomorrow, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Galveston Bay to west-central Louisiana. The next name on the list is Eduoard.

Current impacts on the Gulf Coast from PTC 5 are minimal, limited to a few showers over eastern Louisiana this morning. As seen on visible satellite imagery, that’s because while PTC 5 is well-organized at the surface, it’s also surrounded by a dry airmass aloft, which is limiting the size of the system. That dry air should check the scope of the system, tamping down the threat of widespread flooding, always a prime concern for “weaker” systems approaching the flood-prone Houston and Lake Charles regions. However, given favorable upper-level winds, a compact PTC 5 could make a run at strengthening prior to reaching land (likely near or just west of the TX/LA border). The initial NHC intensity forecast is for sustained winds to increase to 45 mph prior to landfall, though the 11 a.m. discussion notes that additional strengthening could occur between the Tuesday morning and Tuesday evening forecast points. I wouldn’t be surprised to see sustained winds in the ballpark of 60 mph at landfall, as small storms can spin up (or down) quickly.

While that means wind gusts in the 50-70 mph range are possible between Galveston and Port Arthur tomorrow afternoon, the potential for PTC 5 to have a diminutive but tight core by landfall also means localized flash flooding. Right now, given that PTC 5 will be small, moving around 10 mph, and likely to wash out in a dustbath of dry air over east Texas on Wednesday, the streak of 2-4”+ totals will probably be limited to a swath between Houston and Lake Charles. However, some spots may tally 5-10” within that band, which in the wrong location could cause serious flash flooding. The WPC assesses excessive rainfall risks in eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana tomorrow and Wednesday as slight, but pay attention if you are in the region as idiosyncratic, localized freshwater flooding is the name of the game on this part of the Gulf Coast and inland. For eastern Louisiana and east, including Florida, any and all PTC 5 impacts should be winding down by later today (or nonexistent to begin with).

Disturbances in NHC outlook, with 2-/7-day development odds: The tattered remnants of TS Dolly are located just north of Hispaniola this morning. As shown on satellite imagery, very little remains of Dolly following a weekend wind shear sandblasting and repeated land interaction with the Greater Antilles, and the NHC odds of a revival are down to just 10% over the next three to seven days. The few models and ensemble members previously showing re-development have thrown in the towel this morning, and at most, the residual shreds of Dolly may enhance rain chances a bit for Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast this weekend.

Elsewhere: No other disturbances of note in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic today. If anything, conditions across the Atlantic’s Main Development Region look to become even more hostile over the next 8-10 days. The chance of any Eastern Atlantic tropical wave developing in early September is never 0%, but with widespread dry air and persistent, elevated shear, it’s probably as close to zero this year as it will ever be. The Euro weeklies show 50% or less of average Atlantic tropical activity each week through September, as the Nino-boosted Pacific notches 150-300% or more or normal. That’s a rough guide based on aggregated environmental conditions, but seems like a reasonable expectation given how August has played out and September is beginning.

Next report/mood music: Next bulletin tomorrow morning, as the potential (tropical cyclone) rushing around the Gulf likely nears land.

Discussion: I’ll have …

Read more

Almanac: It’s Friday, August 28th… day 89 of the 2026 hurricane season, 94 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 22.3%, 36.9%, and 25.4% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

The first third of September is the second-busiest 10 day period of hurricane season from a historical U.S. landfall perspective, with some kind of landfall occurring in a little less than 40% of seasons since 1851. That includes about 20% featuring a hurricane and 10% including a major hurricane landfall in this stretch. Early and mid-September is the prime climatological danger zone, and if a notable U.S. threat is going to happen in 2026, it would most likely be in that timeframe.

Active Storms: That was fast. Per the 11 a.m. NHC advisory, Ex-Tropical Storm Dolly has opened back up to a tropical wave as it plows westward at almost 25 mph, with sustained winds still a modest 40 mph. As seen above, ex-Dolly is generating only modest convection south and east of its low-level center today as mid-level dry air overtakes the circulation, and is no longer producing the necessary west winds at the surface to be considered a tropical storm. With shear and moisture conditions only deteriorating from here, the NHC forecast is that ex-Dolly will weaken further as it crosses near the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico on Sunday and Hispaniola on Monday, bringing intermittent showers and gusty winds but no major impacts.

Nevertheless, what becomes of Dolly’s remnants remains 1) of interest for U.S. coast late next week or beyond and 2) murky at best. That Dolly will weaken as it continues west-northwest in a hostile environment through Monday is a high confidence forecast, and almost all the model guidance brings its disorganized remnants near or over Hispaniola early next week. If Dolly’s remnants track directly over or south of the mountains of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, its residual low-level rotation will probably be so disrupted that there is little to nothing left of it. If that rotation tracks just north of the Greater Antilles, things might start to get interesting again in 5-8 days. As shown above, guidance suggests that shear over the disturbance might begin to wane by midweek, with mid-level moisture increasing as ex-Dolly possibly interacts with a piece of energy breaking away from a stalled front. That means it is plausible that ex-Dolly could start to reconsolidate in the ballpark of the Bahamas (or west) late next week, where sea surface temperatures are a ripe 85-88F.

While models are not great at dealing with small-scale features like tropical waves, they are very skilled at predicting big mid-latitude weather patterns a week out, and have generally trended stronger and farther north this week with a ridge of high pressure expected to be over the south-central and southeast U.S. late next week. That pattern increases the chances that if ex-Dolly redevelops, it might well get trapped south of the ridge and continue west-northwestward in the general direction of the U.S., at least initially. That would mean something to monitor as a potential U.S. landfall risk way down the road, though the steering pattern could change again by Labor Day weekend.

Overall, ensemble support for the possibility of any eventual U.S. landfall threat remains limited, and is also highly variable from model-to-model and run-to-run. I’d continue to rate that risk as plausible but still very unlikely. Let’s see what ex-Dolly is looking like early next week after weathering high shear, bone-dry air aloft, and repeated land interactions before jumping to conclusions, and disregard any scary stuff that might pop up in Model La-La-Land in the meantime.

Disturbances in NHC outlook, with 2-/7-day development odds: None.

Elsewhere: No disturbances of note in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic today and none expected in the upcoming 5-7 days, other than the aforementioned ambiguity about a mid-latitude influence on Dolly’s remnants.

Next report/mood music: Next bulletin Monday morning, by which time we should have a much clearer perspective on which islands in the stream Dolly will encounter.

Almanac: It’s Thursday, August 27th… day 88 of the 2026 hurricane season, 95 days to go… By total storm en…

Read more

Subscribe or upgrade now

Share

As Hurricane Season 2026 limps into its alleged peak season primetime, there is precisely one tropical disturbance in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf with a chance of development over the next ten days. And while odds are minimal of any eventual threat to land from that system, close-to-zero chances are, I suppose, non-zero. It’s not much, but it’s all there is.

That disturbance is Invest 96L, a tropical wave churning westward across the eastern Tropical Atlantic between Cape Verde and the Lesser Antilles. This wave has been the proverbial pain in the liver just short of jaundice, generating decent thunderstorm activity around a broad area of rotation, but remaining too disorganized to merit tropical depression or storm status. As of Wednesday afternoon, the NHC gives 96L a generous 60% chance of development through Friday, as shown above.

The wave will continue west-northwest at a brisk pace and should be in the vicinity of the northern Lesser Antilles by late this weekend. Beyond that time, the eventual fate of 96L becomes unclear. There are three main possibilities, ranging from nothingburger to something to keep an eye on:

No development (55%)

The most straightforward scenario is the most likely: 96L flops, like every other tropical wave this year. That outcome is backed by a preponderance of real-world and model evidence. The wave may look formidable from a distance, but high-resolution satellite imagery continues to show multiple low-level swirls fighting for dominance beneath the thunderstorms, hampering inflow and causing the disturbance to fritter away the most favorable environment it’s going to encounter.

By late Friday, wind shear increases as 96L races west-northwest at an unhealthy 20-25 mph, and the drier airmass surrounding the disturbance should begin to overspread the circulation and weaken the associated convection. Formerly bullish models started backing off on this wave once it hit the water, a late summer tradition since 2024; disturbances generally don’t come back from that downtrend kiss of death, at least in the short-term. Next week, there shouldn’t be much left of 96L to rebuild, and any remaining twist may never find a low-shear, high-moisture environment.

Thus, I think the most probable outcome is that 96L never develops and merely spreads higher rain chances and blustery winds wherever it washes out, but…

Brief Eastern Atlantic development, then dissipation (20%)

…I could be wrong. Invest 96L isn’t all that far from tropical depression status as of Wednesday afternoon. If a low-level swirl on the south side of the circulation becomes dominant and triggers a diurnal convective burst, the system could still become a depression or modest tropical storm between Thursday and Saturday. However, even if that happens, 96L will be a stoppable force encountering the immovable object of high wind shear near the Lesser Antilles this weekend. Most of the minority of model ensemble members that develop 96L over the next few days weaken it back to a humble tropical disturbance as it reaches the islands for this reason.

Practically, the Eastern Atlantic short-lived storm scenario is the same as no development, but…

Western Atlantic development (25%)

…it’s worth considering the outside chance that 96L might re-organize later next week, a possibility if it can pass through the higher wind shear zone and emerge northwest of Puerto Rico. Such a scenario would, theoretically, pique our interest in Florida and Southeast U.S.

Of course, that’s many steps away from reality. Yet, should the wave would remain north of the Caribbean shear axis, hang on to some kind of low-level rotation, and not be completely annihilated by dry air, ensemble models suggest that upper-level winds could be supportive for slow, eventual organization in the subtropical western Atlantic or even the Gulf. Water temperatures there are running above average, and with 96L’s forward speed expected to slow down starting Monday or Tuesday, there could be a mid- or late-week window for the disturbance to recover from its weekend encounter with dry air. It’s a bankshot, but can’t be ruled out.

Steering currents are also tricky. The consensus of model guidance shows a weak dip in the jet stream in the west-central Atlantic, with an intermittent ridge of high pressure aloft over the Southeast through the first week of September. That means that on the off-chance 96L does get it together in the western Atlantic, its next move could be to turn out-to-sea, keep moving west-northwest, or just meander for a while. That all depends on where a circulation consolidates and the relative strengths and locations of the ridge and trough, unknowable details beyond a week out.

Overall, I would not be even a little concerned about 96L at this stage, though I would check back early next week if you’re in Florida or the Southeast. We should know more about the steering situation by then, as well as whether 96L itself has been eradicated or merely decimated by shear and land interaction. WeatherTiger’s real-time model of seasonal U.S. hurricane risks predicts well below average total landfall activity, but still suggests a greater than 50% chance of one or more continental U.S. hurricane impacts this year. I am not saying that 96L will be a threat, but… a weirdo wave that bumbles into the subtropical western Atlantic, then forms closer to home is the kind of thing we do need to watch for during El Niños. Thus, even though they have given us thankfully little to watch in 2026 and may well continue to do so, keep watching the skies.

Subscribe or upgrade now

Share

Almanac: It’s Tuesday, August 25th… day 86 of the 2026 hurricane season, 97 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 19.5%, 32.5%, and 22.7% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

Active Storms…

Read more

Almanac: It’s Monday, August 24th… day 85 of the 2026 hurricane season, 98 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 18.8%, 31.6%, and 21.4% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

Checking in on…

Read more

Almanac: It’s Friday, August 21st… day 82 of the 2026 hurricane season, 101 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 16.6%, 30.4%, and 20.6% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

As of this mo…

Read more

Almanac: It’s Thursday, August 20th… day 81 of the 2026 hurricane season, 102 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 15.8%, 30.0%, and 20.5% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

Active Stor…

Read more

Subscribe or upgrade now

Share

One of the traditions of the late Dr. Bill Gray—forefather of seasonal hurricane prediction and my great-great-grand-doctoral advisor—was ringing a bell on August 20 to mark the traditional beginning of the most active six weeks of hurricane season.

A core belief of mine is that Florida deserves a more culturally specific version of this rite of passage. Perhaps dumping some bath salts into the Gulf or releasing unwanted exotic reptiles behind a Waffle House might more effectively dispel ill winds from our fair shores. Whatever ritual one chooses to observe, that peak is here: over 60% of the Atlantic’s total hurricane activity occurs between August 20 and September 30.

In 2026, the bell tolls for no one. This August 20, there will be no disturbances of note in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic, and tropical development is unlikely through at least August 25. As discussed in last week’s U.S. landfall risk outlook, the controlling factors are robust wind shear shredding tropical waves in the western half of the Atlantic Basin, and an arid airmass putting the kibosh on convection in the east.

Entering the final week of August, that may change, though not in a way that puts the U.S. or other land areas at risk. A consensus of long-range models suggests that thunderstorm activity will be less limited by sinking air near West Africa in six to ten days, supporting possible slow organization of westward-moving tropical waves. Wednesday afternoon’s A- and B-tier model ensembles all have a healthy majority of members developing a tropical storm well east of the Lesser Antilles towards the end of next week, including around 65% of the typically skeptical Google Deepmind ensemble. That’s a long way off, but realistic given climatology and trends.

Even assuming eventual development, concerns remain minimal. That’s because the El Nino-induced wind shear from Central America to the Lesser Antilles isn’t going anywhere, and is capable of tearing a strong storm to pieces in days. If any systems dodge that shear by pivoting north of the Antilles, long-range models indicate a likely dip in the jet stream dip near the U.S. East Coast to end August and start September would probably turn anything north well offshore. Much like life itself, there are no guarantees in long-range tropical forecasting, but as of now there isn’t a realistic path for a U.S. landfall threat. There is also no indication of anything developing closer to home over the next week or two, though that can change quickly at this time of year.

The only thing we do know about the next named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is that it will be named Dolly, and that I will greet it with copious sheep, Barbara Streisand, and even “Islands in the Stream” references. While 2026’s Dolly (the storm) is not likely to be an unimpeachable national treasure, it will join a long line of pilgrim Dollies stretching back to the beginning of regularly naming tropical storms in the mid-1950s. Flashback!

While landfall locations, religious holidays, and descriptive sobriquets (e.g., 1933’s “Yankee Hurricane”) have informally designated individual storms since the 1800s, the official naming of Atlantic tropical cyclones by the U.S. Weather Bureau began in 1950 with an annual repetition of the phonetic alphabet, following the practices of World War II military forecasters. Despite the comedic appeal of Hurricanes Dog, Easy, and King, the system proved confusing to the public and was replaced in 1953 by an all-female name list drawn heavily from the wives and girlfriends of forecasters and early Hurricane Hunters. In fact, Dolly was one of these original WAG, and its next use will be its tenth such iteration since 1953. That will tie Dolly for the second most cloned name (ok, starting a little early), trailing only the 12 instances of Arlene.

The precise names used each year through the 50s, 60s, and 70s varied somewhat unpredictably, though many repeated several times in that span. However, forecasters quickly realized that reusing the monikers of destructive hurricanes would be confusing and cruel, and thus informally “retired” the most infamous names between seasons. Starting in 1979, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) assumed responsibility for managing Atlantic hurricane names, locking in a six-year rotation1 of 21-storm lists alternating men’s and women’s names that continues to be used today. Thus, if you mourn the brief candle that was last week’s Tropical Storm Cristobal, you can look forward to spending more time with a new Cristobal in 2032.

The WMO Atlantic region is beautiful tapestry of English-, Spanish-, and French-speaking nations, and there is an attempt made to balance the languages of origin on these lists. That’s probably for the best, though it is also how you get my desperate struggle to pronounce “Isaias,” which was easily the worst part of 2020. Note also that objective, scientific standards are used to assign names to disturbances, and as the most powerful and anthropomorphized weather phenomena, only tropical cyclones are officially named in the United States. (A variety of private forecast companies give impactful U.S. snow events unofficial names, including WeatherTiger, where we refer to every winter storm as Xtreme Iceblast Xenawarriorprincess for clarity.)

The WMO also manages the process by which hurricane names are removed and replaced. Following each season, each nation’s WMO representatives gather to coordinate their hurricane prediction and mitigation efforts. At this meeting, any country impacted by a storm in the previous year can formally request that name’s retirement, with a name of the same gender and letter then selected to replace it: i.e., Helene will be supplanted by Holly in 2030, and Melissa by Molly in 2031, possibly setting up a Holly-Molly-Dolly triple whammy in the early 2030s. Landfalling major hurricanes are most frequently retired, but Category 1’s or even tropical storms at strongest impact are well-represented amongst the 100 names removed since 1954. That points to the underestimated ability of freshwater flooding from “weaker” storms to nevertheless cause significant death and destruction.

Because retirement is a completely subjective process, it actually provides a unique perspective on risk distribution within hurricane season. The 100 names that have merited expulsion can in an imperfect sense be considered the “worst” storms in human impact terms since 1954, capturing information about societal vulnerability that measurements like Accumulated Cyclone Energy or landfall windspeed omit.

Those 100 worst storms across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf in the last 70 years, not surprisingly, are highly concentrated during the peak weeks of hurricane season, with a little less than 25% each occurring in August and October, and about 45% in September. So, in terms of historical big dogs, there’s still about 85% of the season left to go. As a final note, Florida is the state to most commonly bear the brunt of a retired storm’s strongest landfall, topping Louisiana and North Carolina by 50%. Turns out everything wants to retire to Del Boca Vista including hurricanes, though for some reason the cost of insurance keeps going up here.

So, this August 20, ring that bell, strike up the band for Tacobell’s Canon in D(oritos), or do whatever Santeria necessary to keep storms infrequent, offshore, and out of the retirement queue over the next couple months. No more than five additional storms would be great, because I really, really, really do not want to have to pronounce “Isaias” again this year. Keep watching the skies.

Subscribe or upgrade now

Share

Almanac: It’s Tuesday, August 18th… day 79 of the 2026 hurricane season, 104 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 14.3%, 28.2%, and 19.7% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

Active Storms

Read more

Almanac: It’s Monday, August 17th… day 78 of the 2026 hurricane season, 105 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 13.6%, 27.6%, and 19.3% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

There’s no tr…

Read more

Almanac: It’s Friday, August 14th… day 75 of the 2026 hurricane season, 108 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 11.7%, 25.4%, and 18.2% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

That 25.4% figure mea…

Read more

Almanac: It’s Thursday, August 13th… day 74 of the 2026 hurricane season, 109 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 11.3%, 24.3%, and 16.1% done for t…

Read more

Subscribe now

In 2026, the salads are trying to kill us^[1]. The hurricanes? Not so much.

Not yet, anyway. As expected, it’s been the quietest start in the Tropical Atlantic since 2009, but mid-August nonetheless brings the “Sunday scaries” of hurricane season: an anticipatory dread just ahead of the typical timing of the most impactful storms.

Today, I’m going to be assessing how U.S. landfall risks are shaping up for the late August through mid-October core of hurricane season, in which two-thirds of continental U.S. hurricane activity and 80% of U.S. major hurricane landfalls have historically occurred. But first, let’s discuss current Atlantic tropical activity, which is touching off a wave of jitters as visceral as if it was the night before school starts and you still can’t find a clear plastic binder for your summer book report on The Giver.

Things are perking up right on time, at least in a relative sense. As of Wednesday morning, Tropical Storm Cristobal became the third named storm of the season in the open waters of the Central Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores. Cristobal is a weak, short-lived storm with no impacts on any land areas; of more interest is a tropical wave halfway between West Africa and the eastern Caribbean. This wave has some chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm heading into the weekend, at which it time should be close to the Lesser Antilles.

A potential tropical storm near the islands in mid-August is a classic set-up for something to watch in the continental U.S., but my concerns for Florida and beyond are nevertheless very, very low in this case. If it develops, the most likely outcome is that it continues westward into the Caribbean, where wind shear and dry air will rip it to shreds early next week. Alternatively, if the storm was to track a little more northwestward, it could get picked up by a dip in the jet stream in the west-central Atlantic and turn out to sea. Those are the main options as well for a second tropical wave closer to Africa that also has a chance of development this week, though odds tilt more toward a northward, open ocean track with that one if it organizes. I don’t see a realistic scenario in which either wave slips towards the U.S. as a coherent system, but as always, I’ll be watching them diligently and often, the way Wilford Brimley used to check his blood sugar.

There are lessons for the season ahead in the fate of the current crop of storms and disturbances. It’s no coincidence that we find Cristobal and the gang in either the eastern half of the Tropical Atlantic or the subtropical Atlantic above 25°N. If you’ve read WeatherTiger’s previous 2026 hurricane season outlooks, you know I’ve consistently highlighted a developing El Niño and tepid temperatures in the Atlantic as key reasons why this season is likely to be much quieter than average in general. Those factors continue to hold, which is why our real-time forecast for total Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy in 2026 is hovering around 65% of normal, with a ballpark of 3 to 5 hurricanes and 1 to 2 major hurricanes still ahead of us. There is a 60%+ chance of this year landing in the calmest third of seasons since 1950.

Of course, how many storms form is not what matters. Where hurricanes preferentially develop and move during the August-to-October peak season is what sets high-activity but low-impact years like 2023 and 2025 apart from a psychotic Crash-a-Rama like 2024. Logically, systems developing closer to the U.S. coastline have a better chance of making landfall; a random storm in the Gulf or Caribbean has a 30 to 40% chance of eventual U.S. hurricane landfall, while one in the eastern Tropical Atlantic has about a 10% chance. Cyclones in the central or eastern subtropical Atlantic, like Cristobal, never hit us and can be ignored for most intents and a majority of purposes.

Among its profusion of impacts on global weather patterns, a historically strong El Niño event (read: sea surface temperatures in the Central Tropical Pacific well above normal) like the one rocking and rolling in summer 2026 shuffles not only how many, but where Atlantic tropical storms commonly form. With this El Niño going to extremes like Mr. William Joel and poised to become one of, if not the strongest Niños in the last 175 years, it has consistently produced a signature axis of violent vertical wind shear over the southern Gulf, Caribbean Sea, and central Tropical Atlantic this summer. In other recent strong El Niños, this shear has kept the southern Gulf and Caribbean mostly free of tropical activity all season long, as shown above.

Thus, the fact that this week’s waves have a shot at development in the relatively hospitable (and warming) eastern Tropical Atlantic, but will either turn north or face annihilation in the Caribbean is likely a representative glimpse into September. I have every expectation these harsh conditions will continue; not only is there a strong historical tendency for elevated summer shear to persist through the peak of hurricane season, but long-range models unanimously forecast the wind shear to soon stiffen further as this Red Hulk of an El Niño rages on. That should be particularly helpful in late September and October, when the potential for monsters like Michael, Helene, and Melissa to form in the western and central Caribbean will be limited by unfavorable upper-level winds.

El Niño reduces U.S. landfall risks both through suppressing development, and causing the storms that do form to occur in places where there is a lower chance they ever reach land. The final pieces of the puzzle are the jet stream patterns that steer hurricanes, which are chaotic and defy efforts to be reliably predicted more than about 10 days ahead of time. Occasionally, there are signs that one steering pattern may be dominant over the next few months, usually linked to El Niño or mid-latitude signals like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

A warm PDO, warmer than normal waters from Alaska to California, makes high-pressure ridges over the western Atlantic more frequent, enhancing landfall risks by preventing hurricanes from turning north into open waters. This summer, an intermittent trough of low pressure over the North Pacific has caused a warmer trend along the U.S. West Coast, though a hot subtropical Pacific means the PDO is still in a cool phase overall. That means there’s not much of a steering signal either way in 2026. If a system manages to develop close to home in the Gulf or western subtropical Atlantic, or something beats the odds and escapes eastern Atlantic purgatory, how any potential threat shakes out will come down to luck and which way the wind is blowing at the time, as usual.

So, with about a quarter of hurricane season in impact terms behind us and only a couple modest brushes with tropical mediocrity to show for it, WeatherTiger’s U.S. landfall risk model projects that at least a couple more named storm strikes are probably still ahead of us in 2026, though odds of stronger hurricanes are significantly lower than in an average year. While there is around a 70% probability of at least one U.S. hurricane impact this season, the chances of two or more hurricane landfalls is 20 to 25%, compared with a whopping 75% chance in our August 2024 outlook. Most likely, we see just one U.S. hurricane landfall over the next few months, or none at all.

With the pathway to the Gulf Coast for powerful storms impeded by shear, risks of major hurricane strikes are diminished even further relative to norms. The odds of at least one Category 3 or higher U.S. landfall in 2026 are around 20%, versus an average chance of about 40%. There is almost no possibility of the double dose of major misery visited upon the U.S. coast in 2017, 2020, or 2024; the probability of two or more Cat 3+ hurricanes this year is around 1%, compared to a typical 10%. (Supporters, you can find specific odds for Florida’s 2026 hurricane landfall risks behind the paywall below, and daily updates to our U.S. landfall risk model here through mid-October. Machine-readable daily output from our storm and U.S. landfall count modeling for quantitative risk management decision support is also available via WeatherTiger Pro.)

So, it’s mid-August. The beautyberries are turning purple. Spirit Halloween is somehow already open. Objectively, this is the worst weather month of the year, usually for reasons including hurricane anxiety. This August will remain wretched due to staggering southern heat and drought, but my outlook for a clean-ish escape from hurricane season is cautiously optimistic—though everyone from Texas to Maine should always have hurricane kits and evacuation plans in place ahead of potential homegrown curveballs, no matter the long-range forecast. Still, in 2026, the salads may be nauseating, but the U.S. landfall outlook is chicken soup for the Floridian soul (and the souls of all coastal residents). Keep calm, and keep watching the skies.

^[1] You don’t win friends with salad, just like Homer Simpson said.

Share

Florida landfall odds (paid supporter exclusive)

Read more

Almanac: It’s Tuesday, August 11th… day 72 of the 2026 hurricane season, 111 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 10.7%, 23.1%, and 14.7% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

Active Storms…

Read more

Almanac: It’s Monday, August 10th… day 71 of the 2026 hurricane season, 112 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 10.4%, 22.4%, and 14.5% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

Heading into mid-August, the profile of U.S. landfall risks shifts dramatically in two senses. First, the number of Category 3 or higher strikes on the continental U.S. coast since 1851 triples compared to the first 10 days of August (4 versus 13) as sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin now support high-end hurricanes and climatological shear conditions improve. Second, there is a notable concentration of these stronger landfalls along the western U.S. Gulf Coast, with Texas and Louisiana hard-hit in this timeframe. Overall, the middle third of August brings a U.S. hurricane hit in about 15% of season.

Active Storms: None.

Disturbances in NHC outlook, with 2-/7-day development odds: There is zero indication that mid-August of 2026 will join that impactful 15%, but the Atlantic is definitely back in session following summer break as school goes back in (for my kids, anyway). And while this morning’s NHC Tropical Weather Outlook isn’t quite as colorful as one of Lisa Franks’s signature psychedelic unicorns, it’s certainly more vibrant than it has been thus far in 2026, with three areas of interest. To wit:

1. North of Bermuda (10%/10%): First up, the disturbance that was near Florida on Friday has looped around the subtropical ridge and is racing east today, well north of Bermuda. A weak low and modest convection has developed with this feature, but it is unlikely to become structurally tropical before moving over cooler waters in a few days. In any case, it’s of no concern to any landmass.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (10%/10%): Of a little more interest is a tropical wave generating some convection this morning along 45W, about 900 miles west of the Lesser Antilles. The wave has some low-level turning associated with it, but most of its disorganized storm activity is west of the wave axis, which is not indicative of quick formation potential. There is a slim chance of development before the wave runs headlong into an axis of strong wind shear mid-week as it continues west. Look for this wave to fall apart as it reaches the islands Wednesday and Thursday, enhancing rain chances in the Windwards as it does.

   

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (20%/60%): The best prospect for development this week is a tropical wave generating a fair amount of convection this morning south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Tropical Atlantic. This strongest low-level turning associated with this wave is far enough south, at around 10N, that it is both dodging the dust and shear to its north and over warm-enough 82-83F waters. That is allowing an eastern Atlantic tropical wave to have a decent amount of thunderstorm activity for the first time this year.

   

   This morning, that convection is pretty tightly clustered along and south of the wave axis, which may allow the wave to maintain a pocket of moisture against an unfavorable environment just to its north as it moves generally west this week. As such, this morning’s GFS, Euro, and Euro-AI ensembles all show increased support for development relative to a few days ago, with 50% or more of members showing a tropical depression or tropical storm forming by Friday. The Google Deepmind remains less impressed, though about a third of its members do support development as well. Overall, given how the wave already looks and where is it located, I do think it has a decent shot at being named by Friday; however, as I mentioned last week, it looks to move into a much less favorable environment over the weekend as it nears the Lesser Antilles. If you’re in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico, this wave is not overly concerning (doubly so for the continental U.S., where the steering pattern also doesn’t generally favor any long-term threat), but it is certainly worth watching.

Elsewhere: Nothing else of note this morning in the Atlantic, Gulf, or Caribbean. At long range, models aren’t particularly optimistic on any of the waves following this week’s development prospect, but any wave has a puncher’s chance in late August.

Next report/mood music: Back home and on a daily morning bulletin schedule as the Atlantic perks up; in the meantime enjoy a Stones tune that was not written about Lisa Frank, but could have been.

Almanac: It’s Friday, August 7th… day 68 of the 2026 hurricane season, 115 days to go… By total storm energy, the season is 9.1%, 20.8%, and 13.6% done for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

Heading into th…

Read more