Wiseman Capital

Credo’s Record Quarter Meets an Unforgiving Market

Kaushik — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 16:39:29 GMT

Credo Technology just delivered the best quarter in its history, and the stock got sold anyway. Revenue crossed $479.0M, non-GAAP net income hit a record $236.3M, and every headline number beat what Wall Street was looking for. Shares still fell roughly 18% across the regular session and the following premarket, from a prior close of $226.19 down into the $185 range. If you are new to Credo, here is the short version. This is a company that makes the connectivity chips and cables that link GPUs, servers, and switches together inside AI data centers. Think of it as the wiring and traffic control system for AI clusters rather than the chips doing the computing itself. This is my full breakdown of the first quarter of fiscal 2027, ended August 1, 2026. Here is what it tells us about where the stock goes from here.

Snowflake Walks Into Earnings With the Bar Raised Again

Kaushik — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 19:53:25 GMT

Snowflake reports second quarter fiscal 2027 results on Wednesday, September 2, after the market close, with a call following at 2 PM Pacific. This is the same day Broadcom reports and one day after MongoDB, so investors have a busy week of infrastructure software earnings to digest. Snowflake's setup might be the most interesting of the three because the company just delivered its strongest quarter in years and now has to follow it up against a much tougher comparison.

I have written about Snowflake enough times now that regular readers know where I stand, but let me set the stage for anyone new. Back when the stock sat around $152 and had been cut in half from its highs, I made the case that there is no AI strategy without a data strategy, and that Snowflake sits underneath the entire AI stack as the place where enterprises keep their most valuable proprietary data. I called it the most misunderstood AI play in the market at the time. That thesis got its real test in Q1 this year, when Snowflake reported the strongest quarter in company history, growth accelerated instead of decayed, and the stock jumped over 30% in a single session on the back of a guidance raise and a new $6B AWS agreement. I called that print the inflection I had been waiting for. Since then the stock has roughly doubled from where I first wrote about it, and this quarter is the one that tells me whether that inflection was the start of a real trend or a single strong data point.

Snowflake runs a cloud data warehouse, which is essentially a place where companies store and analyze all their business data. It gets paid the same way MongoDB does, based on how much customers actually use, so the growth rate of what Snowflake calls Product revenue is the single number that decides whether this print is a win or a loss.

MongoDB Faces Its Toughest Atlas Test Yet

Kaushik — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 20:28:18 GMT

MongoDB reports second quarter fiscal 2027 results on Tuesday, September 1, after the market close, with a call following at 2 PM Pacific. I have been watching this print closely because the bar keeps climbing every quarter, and the stock has already priced in a lot of good news before the company has even said a word.

Here is the story I am walking into this print with. MongoDB is best known for Atlas, its cloud database product that companies pay for based on how much they actually use, similar to an electric bill rather than a flat monthly subscription. Atlas is the growth engine that decides whether this stock goes up or down after Tuesday, and the bar for that engine has never been higher.

What Wall Street Expects

MongoDB guided Q2 revenue to $729M to $734M, representing 23% to 24% growth from a year ago, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.58 to $1.61. Consensus sits just above the top of that range at roughly $735M in revenue and $1.61 in EPS. MongoDB beat its own Q1 guidance comfortably, so the real question heading into this print is not whether the company clears its own bar. It is whether Atlas growth speeds back up enough to justify where the stock trades now, up around $447 a share as of last Friday's close and near the high end of its 52 week range of $216 to $473.

And the full year picture, since what management says about the rest of the year will matter just as much as this single quarter.

The Atlas Number That Decides Everything

Atlas grew 29.4% from a year ago in Q1, an acceleration from 26.1% the quarter before, and the unofficial bar investors have set for this quarter sits right around that same 29% level, despite the fact that MongoDB is now being compared against a much stronger quarter from last year. MongoDB has beaten Wall Street’s Atlas revenue estimates every quarter for over a year now, by 4.8%, 2.3%, 1.4%, and 2.7% over the last four prints, averaging 2.8%. But how big that beat turns out to be this time changes the story completely, so let me walk through what each outcome would actually mean.

A beat of only 1.5%, which would be among the smallest Atlas beats in three years, would actually show growth slowing to 28.0% from 29.4% last quarter. That is the outcome that could disappoint the market even though MongoDB technically still beat estimates, because investors care more about the trend than the headline. A beat in line with the recent typical pace of 2.8% clears the 29% bar and pushes growth to 29.6%, which I would call a solid but unremarkable quarter. Only a beat closer to 3.5%, marking two consecutive quarters of unusually strong results, gets Atlas growth back above 30% and would likely be the kind of number that sends the stock higher. Analysts expect Atlas revenue of roughly $552M to $554M for the quarter, with the total number of paying Atlas customers reaching nearly 69,000, up from 58,300 a year ago.

Why the Demand Backdrop Still Looks Decent

A few signals outside the official numbers give me some confidence heading into this print. Developer downloads of MongoDB’s software, tracked through the popular NPM package registry that most programmers use to install tools, have been growing more than 100% from a year ago this quarter, up from 80% growth last quarter. That matters because rising downloads today tend to show up as rising Atlas revenue a few quarters later, as developers experiment first and then move real projects onto the platform. Separately, independent research from Datadog’s own State of Postgres report showed MongoDB continuing to take market share away from older database vendors like MySQL, growing roughly as fast as Postgres itself, which is widely seen as the current favorite among developers.

I also find it notable that short interest in MongoDB, meaning bets against the stock, has fallen 16% since the start of the year. That stands out against the broader infrastructure software group, where short interest is up 54% on average. In plain terms, professional investors have been growing more skeptical of software stocks broadly this year, but less so with MongoDB specifically, which tells me sentiment here has actually been improving even as it worsens elsewhere in the sector.

The Other Growth Engine Nobody Talks About

Atlas gets all the attention, but Enterprise Advanced, MongoDB’s older business for companies that run the database on their own servers instead of in the cloud, deserves more credit than it gets. This is the part of the business that investors spent years worrying was legacy and shrinking. It actually grew 13% from a year ago in Q1 and is tracking toward high single digit to roughly 20% growth this quarter, driven by finance and technology customers building both traditional software and new AI applications on their own infrastructure. MongoDB also just acquired Clarity Business Solutions, a firm that does federal IT work and holds security clearances, as part of a broader push into government contracts ahead of an expected security certification called FedRAMP High later this fiscal year. If Enterprise Advanced keeps accelerating alongside Atlas, that tells a story of a company winning across its whole business rather than depending on one growth engine to carry everything.

Show Me the AI Money, Not Just the Announcements

MongoDB has leaned hard into artificial intelligence messaging over the past year, and I want to see that translate into actual dollars rather than just more partnership press releases. The company has announced integrations with popular AI coding tools like Claude Code and Cognition’s Devin, along with new capabilities for retrieving code using AI, and it just launched a hosted server that lets these coding tools connect directly to Atlas. None of this moves the needle on a single quarter’s revenue by itself. What I want to hear on the call is proof that developers testing these tools are actually turning into paying customers running real workloads in production, not just more logos on a slide. Management has also pointed to growing usage among AI focused startups, including a newly disclosed customer win with a foundational AI model company, as evidence that experimentation is turning into real revenue. MongoDB also holds an investor day on September 29, so leadership may choose to save some of the bigger strategic announcements for that event rather than the earnings call itself.

What This Means for the Stock

Valuation is the part of this setup that raises the stakes. MongoDB trades at roughly 12.7 times next calendar year’s expected revenue, more than double the infrastructure software peer average of about 5.3 times. In simple terms, the market has already given MongoDB credit for durable growth and AI upside well before it has fully shown up in the actual numbers, which means a merely fine quarter probably will not be enough to move the stock. Two things add extra risk to that already generous price tag. First, since MongoDB gets paid based on usage rather than fixed subscriptions, its revenue can swing around more than a typical software company’s from quarter to quarter. Second, it competes against well funded database rivals, the big cloud providers, and older established players who are not standing still either.

Putting it all together, the bull case needs an Atlas beat in the high 20s percent growth range, an Enterprise Advanced number that keeps accelerating, and a next quarter outlook of at least 27% Atlas growth. Falling short on any of those, especially the Atlas growth rate or the forward outlook, could pressure the stock even if the headline numbers still technically beat expectations.

Broadcom Walks Into Earnings Carrying Its Own $100B Promise

Kaushik — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 15:30:48 GMT

Broadcom is about to post one of the biggest revenue jumps in its history, and the stock is still sitting roughly 25% below its 52 week high. Revenue is guided to grow 84% YoY to roughly $29.4B, with AI chip sales alone set to more than triple from a year ago. Yet the stock dropped 12.6% the last time Broadcom reported, even after beating its own guidance. That mismatch between what the business is doing and where the stock actually trades is the reason I have been circling this print for weeks. Broadcom reports fiscal third quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, September 2, after the market close, with a call following at 2 PM Pacific.

NVIDIA Just Told Us How Big Next Year Gets

Kaushik — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 01:22:25 GMT

NVIDIA reported its second quarter fiscal 2027 results on August 26, and once again the headline beat was almost beside the point. Revenue came in at $96.22B, up 106% YoY. Data Center revenue hit $89.02B, up 117% YoY. Both numbers blew past what the Street was modeling. The part of the print that actually moved the stock after hours was the guide. NVIDIA gave both a near term Q3 number and a full year look at fiscal 2028 for the first time, guiding to approximately 70% YoY revenue growth. I hold NVDA in my own portfolio, so keep that in mind as you read my framing. I want to walk through what actually happened in the quarter, what the company is now telling us about next year, and where the real debates sit heading into the back half of the year.

Rubrik Turns The Profitability Corner Ahead Of Schedule

Kaushik — Sat, 29 Aug 2026 16:41:22 GMT

Rubrik reported second quarter fiscal 2027 results after the close on August 27, and the print did something I have been waiting on since I first wrote about this company. Non GAAP profitability showed up not as a rounding error near breakeven but as a real number, $44.7M, on a quarter that Wall Street had modeled as barely above breakeven. Revenue grew 38% YoY to $427.3M against a Street estimate of roughly $396.3M, and non GAAP EPS came in at $0.20 against a consensus estimate of $0.04. Shares initially popped in the regular session to a 52 week high before giving some of that back after hours as investors digested a full year outlook that, while raised again, implied a deceleration in growth for the back half of the fiscal year.

I have covered Rubrik through its Q1 FY2027 earnings and its Analyst Day this year, and the throughline across both was a company promising that operating leverage was coming. This quarter, the promise showed up in the numbers, though a closer look at the flow metrics underneath the headline ARR balance shows a more mixed picture than the top line suggests.

NVIDIA Walks Into Its Highest Bar Yet

Kaushik — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:30:37 GMT

This is a quick preview ahead of NVIDIA's fiscal second quarter results on Wednesday, August 26, after the market close, with the call at 5:00 PM ET. I have owned this stock through four consecutive beat and raise prints, and I keep coming back to the same question heading into this one. How much more good news can a company this large actually surprise the market with.

Shopify Answers Every Doubt With a Monster Quarter

Kaushik — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 16:17:45 GMT

The Print That Changed the Conversation

I have written about Shopify enough times now that I know what the bear case sounds like before anyone even says it out loud. Growth has to decelerate eventually. The comps get harder every year. Merchant solutions margins are structurally lower than subscription margins, so the mix shift caps how profitable this business can ever be. I have heard every version of that argument, and on August 5, Shopify spent one earnings call dismantling most of it.

Revenue grew 34% YoY to $3.58B in the second quarter of 2026, GMV grew 32% to $115.6B, and free cash flow came in at $654M for an 18% margin. This is the fifth straight quarter of GMV growth above 30% at a company that is now facilitating well over $100B of commerce every three months. Growth at that scale is not supposed to accelerate. Shopify’s did anyway, and the stock rewarded it, closing up roughly 18% on the day after spiking as high as $153.88 intraday before settling near $144.

President Harley…

Amazon: AWS Just Showed Everyone What A Trillion Dollars Looks Like

Kaushik — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 22:04:20 GMT

I have owned AMZN for a while now, and I will admit that for a long stretch of this AI cycle it felt like the least exciting name in my portfolio. NVDA had the chip narrative, META had the engagement and margin story, GOOGL had Gemini and TPUs, MSFT had Azure and Copilot. AMZN just had a cloud business that grew in the high 20s while the market asked whether it was falling behind.

Q2 2026 changed that conversation. AWS accelerated for the fifth straight quarter, the backlog nearly doubled YoY, and on the call Andy Jassy put a number on the table that I do not think the market has fully priced in yet. Shares are up roughly 13% since the print and sitting near $266, not far from the all time high of $284.02 set earlier this month. I want to walk through the full quarter, what management actually said on the call, and why I think there is still more room to run.

Microsoft: The Proof Point Arrives

Kaushik — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 21:04:46 GMT

I have been waiting for this quarter since I wrote my first Microsoft piece. That article made the case that Microsoft’s capex was building something real, even while the market spent the better part of a year punishing the stock for spending too much and showing too little for it. F4Q26 is the quarter where the thesis stopped being a promise and started being a number.

Microsoft reported fiscal fourth quarter results on July 29, 2026. The stock closed that day at $390.54. Today it closed at $484.31, up roughly 24% in the weeks since. I do not think that move was an overreaction. I think it was the market finally pricing in what the underlying business had already started doing.

AppLovin And The Cost of A Perfect Streak

Kaushik — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 01:15:45 GMT

AppLovin walked into its second quarter print riding four straight quarters of clean beats and a stock that had already given back nearly 38% of its value YTD heading into the report. That combination, a business that always beats paired with a stock already discounting some disappointment, is usually a setup for relief. Instead shares fell roughly 16% in after hours trading on the print itself, then extended the decline the following session to a drawdown of more than 20% from the pre earnings close. I want to move quickly through what actually happened in the quarter, then spend most of this piece where the real argument lives now, the bull case that has carried this stock for three years against the bear case that just got a lot more specific.

META: Why I Bought the Dip

Kaushik — Sat, 08 Aug 2026 23:21:17 GMT

Meta shares fell nearly 10% in after hours trading on July 29, and if you only watched the ticker that night you would have walked away thinking the company had a bad quarter. It did not. What actually happened is that Meta reported one of its stronger advertising quarters in years, wrapped it in a set of one time legal and severance charges large enough to make the headline earnings number look ugly, and then declined to hand the market a tidy new revenue line for its AI spend. The market punished the packaging rather than the business, and that gap between what the headline says and what the underlying numbers actually show is exactly where the opportunity sits.

I want to walk through this the way I always do, starting with what actually happened in the quarter, then what management said about where the AI investment is headed, then the specific product work turning that investment into something you can actually see and use, and finally the full case for why the stock was worth buyi…

Reddit: A Record Quarter the Market Refused to Reward

Kaushik — Sun, 02 Aug 2026 20:34:56 GMT

I have covered two Reddit earnings reports since I opened this position, and this is the first one where the numbers and the stock price told two completely different stories. Reddit just posted its best quarter as a public company on almost every financial measure that matters. The stock fell roughly 21% the next trading day and closed at $140.67 on July 31, one of its steepest single day declines since the IPO. The gap between the print and the reaction is the whole story this quarter, and understanding why the market reacted the way it did matters more right now than celebrating the beat.

NOW: The Billion Dollar Proof

Kaushik — Sun, 26 Jul 2026 22:28:03 GMT

Three months ago I argued the 17% post earnings selloff after Q1 was fear, not fundamentals, and initiated a position at approximately $89. The setup coming into the print was unusually tense. IBM and Pegasystems had both just reported weak quarters and pointed to AI related disruption in their sales cycles, with IBM specifically flagging clients redirecting budget toward AI hardware. The market was primed to read ServiceNow’s Q2 as the next data point in that same story. Instead, it delivered the cleanest counterexample the sector could have asked for.

Subscription revenue grew 24.5% year over year to $3.877 billion, accelerating by 400 basis points from Q1 in constant currency terms. Total revenue of $3.987 billion beat the roughly $3.97 billion Wall Street was modeling, non GAAP EPS of $0.90 came in well ahead of the $0.86 consensus, and cRPO of $13.20 billion cleared the $13.03 billion analysts had penciled in. ServiceNow AI crossed one billion dollars in annual contract value duri…

AppLovin: The Moat Nobody Is Watching

Kaushik — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 19:56:56 GMT

An advertising platform that has been closed to most of the world for fourteen years opens to the public this month. The company behind it generates 85 cents of adjusted operating profit for every dollar it earns, has not missed a quarterly revenue estimate in over a year, and runs an AI engine that gets measurably smarter with every auction it processes. Most investors are still looking at the wrong thing when they look at this stock.

That company is AppLovin, and I have been building a position in it over the past several months. This piece lays out what I think the market is missing, what the bull case actually rests on, and where the risks live.

Rubrik: The Blueprint Arrives. The Building Starts Now.

Kaushik — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 19:52:05 GMT

Earlier this month, six days after reporting the quarter I wrote about in my last piece, Rubrik held its first Analyst Day at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, running concurrent with its annual Rubrik Forward user conference. This was the first time management formally laid out a long term financial framework for investors since the company went public, and that context matters regardless of what was or was not disclosed. An Analyst Day forces management to state a direction on the record and stand behind it. The street listens differently when a company stops describing the journey and starts committing to where it ends.

Coming away from the event with higher conviction on the platform thesis and a clearer picture of the endgame, there is also an honest acknowledgment to make. The most contested number was not disclosed. Let me walk through both, because the gap between what was said and what was expected tells you something important about how to think about this company right now.

Snowflake: What Summit 26 Confirmed

Kaushik — Sat, 06 Jun 2026 18:29:01 GMT

If Part One was the thesis and Part Two was the inflection, then Part Three is the confirmation.

Snowflake Summit 26 closed last Wednesday in San Francisco. What management presented across four days of product keynotes, partner sessions, and an attached Investor Day was not a vision document. It was a demonstration of a strategy already in motion. The revenue reacceleration reported in Q1 FY2027 was not a one quarter anomaly. Summit revealed the mechanism behind it, put new products on the calendar that extend the platform further, and gave investors the most specific financial target the company has ever offered.

I came away from this week with higher conviction than I entered it.

Rubrik Just Had the Quarter That Turns a Thesis Into a Track Record

Kaushik — Sat, 06 Jun 2026 18:28:37 GMT

When I first built my case for Rubrik, the core argument was straightforward. The world was generating more data than it could protect, ransomware was becoming a boardroom issue rather than an IT department one, and Rubrik had built the only platform capable of securing data across cloud, on premise, and SaaS environments simultaneously. I said then that this was not a backup company. It was a cyber resilience company with a recurring revenue model that enterprises would not easily rip out. Tonight, the company reported first quarter fiscal year 2027 results, and every number on that income statement pushed the thesis further forward.

Let me walk through what the quarter actually said, why it matters, and what I am watching now.

Snowflake: The Inflection I Have Been Waiting For

Kaushik — Sat, 30 May 2026 15:02:08 GMT

Back in April, I made the case that Snowflake was the most misunderstood AI play in the market. The stock was sitting around $152, down roughly 30% year to date, punished by a market that had decided the age of AI infrastructure was somehow bad for enterprise data platforms. My argument was the opposite. There is no AI strategy without a data strategy. Snowflake sits at the center of nearly every major enterprise’s most sensitive proprietary data, and it was quietly becoming the foundation on which the entire AI transformation would be built.

Seven weeks later, Snowflake just reported the quarter that validates that thesis more forcefully than I expected. The stock closed Thursday at $239.20, up 36% for its best single day in company history. Growth accelerated to levels not seen in several quarters. Margins expanded sharply. Full year guidance was raised by $170 million above where analysts were modeling. And a landmark deal with AWS was announced that resets the infrastructure cost s…

Shopify - The Quiet Acceleration

Kaushik — Tue, 26 May 2026 02:33:21 GMT

There is something unusual happening at Shopify that I think deserves serious attention from anyone who follows growth technology. The business is getting bigger and growing faster at the same time. Revenue growth went from 27% a year ago to 31%, then 32%, then 31%, and now 34.3% in Q1 2026 on a revenue base approaching thirteen billion dollars annualized. That is not how compounding businesses are supposed to behave at scale. Growth rates are supposed to moderate as the denominator gets larger. Shopify is doing the opposite. As Harley Finkelstein said on the call, Shopify has now put up four straight quarters of 30% or more revenue and GMV growth alongside mid to high teens free cash flow margins every single quarter. I want to walk through what the numbers actually said, what the broker community got right and got wrong in their models, and what I think the market is still underpricing.