In any case, the purpose of this series is to be quick and to the point. Enough woe is me! Cue the hot takes with a side of cold hard facts. It’s what you signed up for when you clicked the article. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride (because having fun is what we’re really all about here at Short-Handed).

8) Philadelphia Flyers

Notable Additions: J. Woll

Notable Exits: None?

Young Player to Watch: P. Martone

At this point, I’m used to disrespecting at least one of the two Pennsylvania teams with these predictions. Don’t take too much offense, Flyers fans. It was certainly impressive seeing this team catch a sleeping Metro Division at the wheel last year, and doubly impressing to see them do the same thing to their in-state rivals in Round One. The Flyers are built to be a team with a high-floor: their game last year was actually fairly similar to the Stars, in which they focused on defending expertly in order to eek out victories. While that would indicate that having them at 8th could be a bad-take in the making, I think they’ve got a handful of question marks that hold them back.

For starters, is Dan Vladař legit, or did we just witness a career year? And speaking of goaltending, what version of Joseph Woll are they going to get? I’m relatively high on Woll, and understand that last year was more likely than not a fluke due to a combination of injury and off-ice hardship. Nevertheless, for a team that relied heavily on goaltending to win games, the success of this tandem will tell much of the story.

Beyond that though, there is a lot of potential in this fairly young roster. Porter Martone is a legitimate Calder contender. Trevor Zegras seems to have found new life in Philly. And Matvei Michkov, regardless of what his coach thinks, could still be a legitimate superstar in this league. But that’s part of the problem, isn’t it? How much is this roster’s potential being held back by a guy whose system seems to limit offensive power in favor of defensive structure?1 Management isn’t entirely innocent here either. Taking the swing on Leo Carlsson was pretty sick, considering most GMs won’t touch the offer sheet with a ten-foot pole, but was there a Plan B after that? Or is Philadelphia simply content to running it back and hoping internal growth is enough to keep them competitive in a relatively mid-tier division?

I’m not saying it’s a bad bet by any means, and it may very well work out, but I also see a world where goaltending isn’t in their favor and they’re incapable of producing enough offense to balance things out. For now, I’ve got Philadelphia finishing 27th overall, and I’m ready to eat crow on it.

7) New York Rangers

Notable Additions: P. Dorofeyev, O. Bjorkstrand

Notable Exits: V. Trocheck

Young Player to Watch: W. Cuylle

This is another difficult one to place. You’ll notice that a lot of teams in the Metro are fairly similar: high floors, low ceilings. The Rangers are perhaps the definitive version of this: they’ll be buoyed by an elite netminder in Igor Shesterkin and an elite defenseman in Adam Fox, but will be fairly unremarkable elsewhere. For a team attempting some sort of rebuild or retool or whatever their letter decided to call it this time, they’re in danger of ending up in the Mushy Middle in which they’re neither consistently good enough to push for playoffs nor consistently bad enough to fill their coffers with elite talent.

This team is largely mid beyond the aforementioned Fox and Shesterkin. Their forward group is particularly lackluster. Their topline intrigues me, but is not without major asterisks. I think Alexis Lafrenière is probably what he is at this point in his career: good, but not elite. Meanwhile, both newly acquired Pavel Dorofeyev and the longtime Ranger Mika Zibanejad are probably due for some finishing regression. If it’s any consolation, I think the rising salary cap has made some of these contracts much more palatable to other teams should the Rangers decide that greater changes are needed in order to get this club in a position to actually compete. I’m taking them at 25th overall. Another chance at the draft lottery won’t hurt, though I think Shesterkin’s capabilities will ultimately limit their odds of landing an elite prospect. Mushy Middle, here we come!

6) New York Islanders

Notable Additions: M. Maccelli

Notable Exits: A. Lee

Young Player to Watch: M. Schaeffer

Holy Hot Take Batman! At least, it feels like it. Everything is telling me that the Islanders should be the worst team in the Metro this year: their offseason was fairly quiet in comparison to expectations, with most of their moves being dependent on the arrival of young players and internal growth. If I was skeptical that Philadelphia could do it, why be high on the Islanders?

It really comes down to two factors: Pete DeBoer and Matthew Schaefer. Let’s start with the devil I know; despite how things ended with his tenure in Dallas, DeBoer is still someone I greatly respect. His ability to unleash Dallas’s offense while maintaining solid defensive numbers, at least for his first few years with the club, was incredibly impressive. I think he’s exactly what the Islanders could use, especially as a handful of younger pieces are preparing to come into their own. While Calum Ritchie has been the historic subject of hype, I think that Simon Holmström and Matias Maccelli have the sauce to breakout this year. We can’t forget that Victor Eklund is waiting in the wings for his opportunity, too. Meanwhile, Bo Horvat and Matthew Barzal are no passengers, either.

Of course, this team’s success really comes down to what year two of Matthew Schaefer can look like. The kid is legit.2 Teams will be preparing for him this year, offering a new challenge to the potentially generational defenseman. I think that DeBoer’s structure should further elevate his game. The rest of the blue line does well enough in transition and in the offensive zone to see success under DeBoer. And we can’t forget that they too have an elite goaltender in net in Ilya Sorokin.

All in all, I could see the Islanders making some noise this year, but I’m not confident it’s what they want to do just yet. Kyle Palmieri is clearly trade bait, and the club still has time for their emerging core to arrive. While the hiring of DeBoer signals that they’re ready to take the plunge, I think the team would be alright with just about any outcome this season. They were blessed with a franchise altering draft in 2025, and shouldn’t have second thoughts about taking their time to turn this club into a legitimate contender. Let DeBoer’s systems get put into place, see which young forwards are ready to take the next step, and then set yourself up to really begin competing in 2027 or 2028. In the meantime, a 23rd place finish is nothing to be ashamed of, and the reality that they’ve got nothing to lose might just be the thing that pushes them higher.

5) Pittsburgh Penguins

Notable Additions: T. van Riemsdyk, A. Kuzmenko

Notable Exits: A. Mantha, S. Skinner, R. Shea

Young Player to Watch: B. Kindel

Should this also be considered disrespectful? I know I got burned for dissing the Penguins last year. In all honesty, I wanted to place them higher in the rankings when I started this project. The more I’ve mulled it over, the more bearish I’ve gotten on Pittsburgh. While I love the way that Kyle Dubas has been able to support the increasingly elderly core with a fine crop of young talent, I wonder how much longer some of these guys can continue to defy father time. I have no concerns about Sidney Crosby, but the rest of their core? Kris Letang has already begun his decline, and I imagine that Evgeni Malkin will follow suit.3 Adding Trevor van Riemsdyk, another declining defenseman, means that their top pairing features two players over the age of 35. Beyond age-related regression, keep in mind that getting older also increases both the risk of injury and the significance of injury. None of this guarantees a collapse by any means, but it does call for a caution sign.

Another notable piece of this calculation is that their goaltending tandem is incredibly young. I do think that Artūrs Šilovs still projects to be an everyday NHL goalie, but there will be a lot of pressure on him to prove it this year. Perhaps Dubas believes that bringing in the younger Sergei Murashov full time will create some competition that can serve as a rising tide to lift both boats.

Finally, I wonder how Dubas reacts to a tough start for the team or signs of decline amongst his veteran pieces. While I got this same call wrong last year, this season really could be the best time to sell off some of their most valuable pieces such that they can begin the transition towards the future. At the very least, I’d be shocked to see Erik Karlsson on this team come March. Crosby and Malkin’s futures are largely up to their own determination, I’d imagine, so I won’t speculate too hard in that regard. Nonetheless, Pittsburgh continues to be in a strange limbo space in terms of their roster construction; Dubas has done well threading the needle thus far, but the risk of trying to have things both ways offers the ever-present threat of getting stuck in the Mushy Middle. You can only outrun your fate for so long; I’m expecting Pittsburgh to decline back into mediocrity this season, finishing 21st overall, but I feel much more confident about their long-term future than I have in years past.

4) New Jersey Devils

Notable Additions: A. Mantha, E. Rodrigues

Notable Exits: Š. Nemec, J. Markström

Young Player to Watch: L. Hughes

This feels like quite the hot take, and is one of the predictions I feel the least confident in. New Jersey has consistently been the team most analysts expect to be the second-best team in the Metro. After all, they had largely the same core put together solid seasons in both 2022-23 and 2024-25. They’re a team primed for positive regression in terms of shooting percentage and health, so it would not shock me whatsoever to see them climb to the top of this division.

Their roster is all-around solid. One weakness for a while has been their lack of weaponry at the wings. Continued growth from Dawson Mercer and the addition of Anthony Mantha (and Evan Rodrigues, if they want to play him there) should help, but does it solve their problem? Mantha in particular feels more like a half step that could be nuked by negative regression given that he put together the best goal-scoring season of his career last year. Their defensive corps is actually pretty good for what it is, though they would really like to see some positive signs out of Luke Hughes. I don’t think he’s worth panicking about just yet given how good he rates offensively, but his defensive impacts could use some work. Their goaltending tandem is going to be a fun experiment: can two lowkey good backups forge a genuinely valuable 1A/1B duo?

The prevailing wisdom is “in Sunny Mehta we trust.” After all, we just saw an analytics believer manage his team to the Stanley Cup. I think that New Jersey is in a position to do well, and have a guy at the helm who will find fixes as needed. Still, I fear that this team’s range of outcomes is incredibly wide to project with confidence. As good as they could be, they also seem to be one injury away from disaster at all times. Alternatively, bad breaks in net could very well doom them, even if their finishing capabilities rebound. Or maybe they somehow acquire Quinn Hughes and everything works out just fine. The Devils are this year’s winners of the “I have no idea where to put them” award. I’ve got them at 17th overall, so feel free to consider them effectively tied with the next team on the list.

3) Columbus Blue Jackets

Notable Additions: V. Nichushkin

Notable Exits: M. Marchment, B. Jenner

Young Player to Watch: A. Fantilli

I’d like to say that this team is easier to talk about, at least as far as analysis goes. I think that Columbus falls into a similar category as the Rangers, in that they’re a team that should have a decently high floor. I also feel like their top-nine is probably a bit underrated all things considered, with the addition of Valeri Nichushkin, a full season of Conor Garland, and continued development of their talented young forwards being the most significant changes year-to-year. Their blue line could use some work, but the fact that reigning Norris Trophy winner Zach Werenski leads the way certainly helps. Jet Greaves in net and Rick Bowness’s defensively-minded system should help cover for any deficiencies anyways. Simply put: I like this roster, and see a lot of potential in Columbus this year.

Admittedly, there are a lot of unknowns surrounding this team to feel perfectly optimistic. For instance, trade rumors continue to surround both Zach Werenski and Kirill Marchenko. Both would bring a haul of sorts, though I’d imagine that any trade involving Werenski would be a tough one for Columbus to win. The fact that Adam Fantilli remains unsigned isn’t ideal either. I do wonder if they’re going to have to move money out in order to make his number work, as I’d imagine that a deal would have already been inked if he was willing to take the $12.6 million they have available for him. Last but certainly not least, I wonder whether a full season of Rick Bowness will actually be as beneficial as management seems to think it will be. This really feels like the team that should have hired Pete DeBoer. Regardless, I’m tired of everything going wrong for Columbus. How about a year where things break just right for them, eh?. I’ve got them finishing 16th, making the playoffs as the third-best team in the Metro.

2) Washington Capitals

Notable Additions: A. Tuch, J. Kyrou, B. Jenner

Notable Exits: C. McMichael, T. van Riemsdyk

Young Player to Watch: C. Hutson

Talk about threading the needle. Washington continues to do something most teams have tried and failed at: they’ve found a way to retool on the fly and stay competitive in the face of a declining core. I think there’s an argument to be made that Washington put together the best offseason in the league this year.

Acquiring Jordan Kyrou and Alex Tuch to further solidify a strong forward group projects to be a lowkey beast-mode pair of moves. Washington’s rush offense was relatively weak last season, and these two wingers are some of the best attackers on the rush in the league. Sometimes, you just have to call a spade a spade. While the retool has gone well, the Capitals have also succeeded at squeezing value out of their prospects. Ryan Leonard had a very good rookie season, and will be joined by other notable young guns in Cole Hutson and Ilya Protas this year. The other aspects of their lineup can hold their own as well. The only real weakness in this team’s roster construction might be found on their blue line, which did not receive a notable upgrade to help juice their transition game like the forward group did. Perhaps the Capitals believe that the aforementioned Hutson will bring that element to their roster?

Beyond that is the fact that Washington wasn’t exactly spectacular in their ability to control the game last year, which does make me want to pump the breaks a bit. A huge part of their success came down to the fact that they are backstopped by arguably the best goaltender in the league right now. Still, I think their work this offseason tells me that management is aware of, at least in part, some of their flaws. Thus, Washington is, to me, the one team in the Metro not named the Carolina Hurricanes that feels like a lock to make the playoffs. I’ve got them finishing 11th in the league this year; one last bash to send Ovechkin off to retirement?

1) Carolina Hurricanes

Notable Additions: None?

Notable Exits: F. Andersen

Young Player to Watch: A. Nikishin (as in, watch where he gets traded)

Do I even have to write this section? The Carolina Hurricanes are the defending Stanley Cup Champions after putting together one of the most dominant runs to the Finals we’ve seen in a while. This brainchild of a former hockey writer/confirmed Statsnerd and a coach who really should be in the Hockey Hall of Fame by now isn’t going anywhere. In fact, their only notable roster change by my count is the departure of Freddie Andersen, though they still need to decide what they’re doing with Alexander Nikishin. Did their Stanley Cup hangover leave them caught slacking, or are they simply taking an “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” approach to the summer?

There are very few front offices in this league that I trust to consistently get things right. Eric Tulsky’s is one of them. If the Hurricanes didn’t feel the need to add any pieces in this offseason, it’s because they felt like there was nobody worth the cost of adding them. Instead, they’ve got $9.8m of cap space to play with at the trade deadline, not factoring in any moves that get made with Nikishin, and a roster that they know can win a Stanley Cup. I think it’s more likely than not that they end up trading the Russian defenseman, and it’ll probably be a deal that is won by Carolina. That’s just how they do things, man. I could go on and on about their success with reclamation projects (of sorts) like K’Andre Miller and Nikolaj Ehlers. Or the highway robbery they performed by signing Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake’s extensions last summer. Or the fact that they have perhaps the easiest path to the Conference Final of any team in the league. Simply put: it’s easy to see a world where Carolina repeats this year. Goaltending is their only question mark, but we just saw Brandon Bussi bring home the bacon in the final, so make of that what you will. I’ve got the Canes cruising to 3rd in the league this regular season. They might end up being my Stanley Cup pick, but TBD on that front… for now.

Summary

So there you have it. I’ve got the deceptively difficult to predict Metropolitan Division shaking out as follows:

1. Carolina Hurricanes

2. Washington Capitals

3. Columbus Blue Jackets

— Playoff Line —

4. New Jersey Devils

5. Pittsburgh Penguins

6. New York Islanders

7. New York Rangers

8. Philadelphia Flyers

Spoilers for next time, but this does indeed indicate that I’ve got five teams in the Atlantic making the playoffs, though I think it could be rather close. Columbus and New Jersey were virtually a coinflip for me; I think it’s also possible that both end up worse than the 6th best team in the Atlantic, which I’m sure most fans will be totally normal about. Prepare the obligatory “this is a dumb playoff format” rants!

Let me know what you think of my rankings in the comments as always. I’d expect this one to be somewhat controversial; this really was one of the most difficult divisions to figure out. Until next week hockey fans!

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This is the time of year where it’s the most acceptable to make bold predictions. After all, it feels like anything can happen when everyone’s record is 0-0-0. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be attempting to forecast how this season will shake out. I do this for two reasons: one, because it’s fun; and two, because it gives us the chance to review how the summer treated all the teams around the NHL.

If last year taught me anything, it’s that I don’t anticipate my projections to be perfect.1 Still, I’ll take some solace in the fact that the team I declared to be “offseason champions” ended up hoisting the Stanley Cup. We’ll be crowning the winner of this year’s offseason soon enough, though it’s not as clear cut to me as it was a year ago. In the meantime, we’ve got to start somewhere; let’s dive right into the Pacific Division, which I think is slowly becoming less and less of a “pillow fight” than it has been in years past. We’ll be ranking these teams from worst to best, starting with…

8) Vancouver Canucks

Notable Additions: J.Oleskiak

Notable Exits: M. Pettersson, N. Höglander

Young Player to Watch: Z. Buium

This shouldn’t shock anyone who was even slightly in tuned with the NHL last season. The Canucks are headed for some dark times. The departure of Quinn Hughes sealed their fate as a team that would need to rapidly find a new identity. It will probably get worse before it gets better. They were easily one of the worst teams in the league last year in just about every metric, and I don’t expect that to get better just because Jamie Oleskiak crossed the Puget Sound.

I have Vancouver finishing 32nd overall, no questions asked. Some positive steps from the pieces they got in the Hughes trade, namely Zeev Buium and Marco Rossi, should be encouraging signs to Canucks fans. Even a miraculously healthy season for Thatcher Demko would have a hard time elevating this squad beyond a bottom-five finish. It feels more likely that we see the Canucks move on from what remains of the Hughes-era; a market could easily develop for the services of Filip Hronek or even the aforementioned Oleksiak. I’d imagine that they also try and move Elias Pettersson, though that will remain a more difficult ask. This really feels more like year zero of the rebuild than last season was. Landon DuPont, here we come!

7) Calgary Flames

Notable Additions: S. Nemec

Notable Exits: B. Coleman

Young Player to Watch: S. Nemec

If you want to talk about franchise-altering offseasons, just ask a Flames fan about the Summer of 2022. Calgary has found itself stuck in the mushy middle ever since, and I think this could be the year that they bottom out. Granted, a lot of it will depend on the year that Dustin Wolf has. He had a particularly difficult 25-26, but a strong performance from Devin Cooley helped balance things out. Even with a return to form from Wolf, this team struggles to move me. They have a decent collection of young players, but their forward core feels very Seattle-esque in that it’s overwhelmingly mid. Taking a gamble on Šimon Nemec worth multiple first-round picks, felt like quite a choice. Perhaps greater responsibility will embolden him.

The combination of that risky trade, their bizarre approach to Zayne Parekh’s first year in the NHL, and head coach Ryan Huska’s infatuation with ChatGPT leaves me skeptical that Calgary has a plan for how to proceed. In the meantime, I’ve got them finishing 31st overall. They feel like the perfect team to sleepwalk into a potentially generational talent in Landon DuPont (a Calgary native, I should add). Whether they deserve salvation or not remains up for debate.

6) Seattle Kraken

Notable Additions: M.Samoskevich

Notable Exits: J. Schwartz, J. Oleksiak

Young Player to Watch: B. Catton

I’d put Seattle and Calgary into fairly similar tiers. Both feel horrendously middle-of-the-road beyond the net. While I’d give Calgary the edge in that department, Seattle’s blue line looks a lot more serviceable. Their forward group, on the other hand, remains a complete meme. This club has tried so hard to recreate the magic of that 2023 playoff run that they’ve somehow downgraded their forward group in the process. Losing Schwartz and Oleskiak for nothing in the offseason is yet another kick in the gut. If there’s anything Seattle could do right this year, it’s to ensure that they sell Vince Dunn, Jared McCann, and perhaps even Shane Wright (if they feel so inclined) to the highest bidder. I’ve got the Kraken finishing 28th overall, which should net them a decent prospect next summer. This team needs a superstar, just like it did five years ago. Until they find one, the plan is simple: collect assets, draft well, and stop pretending to be a playoff team.

5) Anaheim Ducks

Notable Additions: A. Greer

Notable Exits: M. McTavish, J. Carlson, J. Trouba, O. Zellweger

Young Player to Watch: L. Carlsson

This one might be controversial. It’s not so much that Anaheim got worse, but that Anaheim got screwed by their own GM’s hardball antics (allegedly). Let’s start with the most pressing topic: yes, matching the Carlsson offer sheet was worth it. Go ahead and try out HockeyStats.Com’s offer sheet lottery simulator and then try to tell me otherwise. The rising cap will make this contract age just fine, assuming that Carlsson continues on the path he’s been forging. Number-one centers don’t grow on trees.

Regardless of Carlsson’s performance this season, the Ducks are still going to be the victims of a sudden cap crunch. As a result, they’ve had to skimp quite a bit on their blue line, which will be almost entirely reliant on the services of Jackson LaCombe and Pavel Mintuykov. To make matters worse, their summer isn’t over yet. Cutter Gauthier, who is an absolutely menace in the goal-scoring department, remains unsigned. And it’s not like his camp is afraid of making things difficult for an NHL front office. While this team has a fairly positive future (I really love Beckett Sennecke’s game), I do think that this year will be a modest step-back. I’ve got them finishing 20th overall, just behind another young California club…

4) San Jose Sharks

Notable Additions: I. Stenberg, D. Nurse, M. Marchment, J. Trouba

Notable Exits: W. Eklund

Young Player to Watch: M. Misa

Really, the entire team feels like it could be the “young player to watch.” But that’s the whole point, right? Years of pain in San Jose has resulted in great fortune at the draft lottery, and now that’s paying off dividends. Macklin Celebrini has emerged as a genuine superstar in this league, and his supporting cast of Will Smith, Michael Misa, and now Ivar Stenberg looks poised to transform San Jose from a one-man show into a powerhouse in the making. I’ve marked Misa as the guy to keep an eye on, simply because his emergence as the true number-two center he was drafted to be for this team would do the most to help elevate this club’s potential. Celebrini will guide Smith and Stenberg to the promised land, but it’s going to be up to Misa and co. to punish teams for hyperfixating on #71.

While I do think Mike Grier’s decision to acquire Darnell Nurse and sign Jacob Trouba was certainly a choice, I can kind of squint to see the vision. This team’s defensive depth was nonexistent last year, and that was their biggest flaw. Going from a 0/10 to a 1/10 is still improvement! Luckily, the Nurse and Trouba deals largely align with the development timelines for Sam Dickinson, Keaton Verhoeff, and perhaps even Ryan Lin. Again, the good fortune certainly makes life easier, but damn does San Jose draft well.

San Jose’s biggest problem will be in net. I’m still waiting for Yaroslav Askarov to live up to the player that I watched torture the Texas Stars more times than I can count. Regardless, so long as the youth movement continues to march on, San Jose feels like a team ready to burst onto the scene. I’ve got them finishing 19th overall, but making the playoffs as the 8th seed in the West. Go crazy, Sharks fans.

3) Los Angeles Kings

Notable Additions: M. Zuccarello, C. Perry

Notable Exits: A. Kopitar, A. Kuzmenko

Young Player to Watch: B. Clarke

I’m largely an L.A. Kings hater, so even I’m shocked by this prediction. Perhaps I should’ve just been brave and put San Jose third like my heart wants me to. Looking at this Kings team though, I feel… surprisingly decent about them? They’re not going anywhere past the first round, don’t get me wrong, but the combination of L.A.’s advanced numbers, roster, and new coach leads me to believe that they could put together a decently entertaining season this year.

Peter Laviolette is in a position akin to Peter DeBoer with the Dallas Stars a few years ago, in that he needs to unleash the offensive capabilities of a team that has invested heavily in its defensive identity. Assuming that Laviolette can thread the needle, L.A. is built to be a team that can do well throughout the regular season. So long as their younger pieces like Alex Laferriere, Quinton Byfield, and Brandt Clarke can offset their GM’s obsession with throwing money at aged veterans, they should do fine.2 For what it’s worth, the addition of Mats Zuccarello could be a boon to their lackluster power play. And of course, they’ll be getting a full season of Artemi Panarin, who is stil a legitimate game-breaker, assuming he doesn’t fall off an age-related cliff à la Jonathan Huberdeau. If everything goes to plan, I’ve got L.A. finishing 15th overall.

2) Edmonton Oilers

Notable Additions: F. Andersen, R. Shea,

Notable Exits: D. Nurse, J. Roslovic

Young Player to Watch: M. Savoie (But really D. Levi)

I really wanted to pick Edmonton to win the division, but I’m just not confident enough in their ability to push past the monster that still rules the Pacific. Still, I have them finishing 6th in the league, so consider me a bit high on their supply. Those who missed the annual Oilers-Kings first-round kerfuffle may now celebrate at this time.

I honestly like what the Oilers did this offseason. This season and next make up their last chance to prove to Connor McDavid that they can build a winning roster, and while management still has a long way to go after some bewildering choices last year, I think this was a step in the right direction. Addition by subtraction through the trade of Darnell Nurse opened up some room to acquire Ryan Shea, who I think brings some good value. They’d love to see a better year out of Jake Walman, though his puck-moving capabilities are still there. While the choice to shore up depth rather than finding pieces to support McDavid and Draisaitl in the top-six is a question mark, I wonder whether there were better options actually available.

Of course, many will want to see positive results in the goaltending department in order to feel truly comfortable about Edmonton’s chances. I think that bringing in Freddie Andersen is a fine stopgap, so long as he’s healthy. He had a really strong playoffs. Even an injured Freddie Andersen is better than Tristan Jarry for the next two years. The sleeper move here was acquiring Devon Levi, who was getting squeezed out of Buffalo after his development stalled. Any young goaltender with potential is better than no young goaltenders with potential, especially for a team that’s been without stable netminding for nearly a decade.

I think the secret sauce to this whole operation is that Edmonton is not right up against the salary cap, leaving them room to acquire a genuine top-six talent an Alex DeBrincat, Jared McCann, or Kyle Palmieri (with the help of salary-cap retention, as needed). All I’m saying is, keep an eye on the Oilers.

1) Vegas Golden Knights

Notable Additions: P. Wotherspoon, V. Olofsson

Notable Exits: P. Dorofeyev

Young Player to Watch: B. Bowman

Evil doesn’t rest, especially not after finishing just short of a Stanley Cup. The fact that their reprehensible decisions in net was their downfall in the Final (and managed to help get Bruce Cassidy fired) was a fitting punishment for this team. All that aside, this remains a legitimately terrifying roster. I’m curious to see what Ryan Craig can do for a club whose processes largely worked all year long.

This feels like the first summer where Vegas hasn’t been able to nab up a shiny new object. Their current roster is a whose who of past offseason and trade deadline trophies: Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hannifin. These guys should have a few more good years in them before Vegas mercilessly banishes them from the realm in favor of the new toy on the shelf. Their cutthroat approach to roster construction left no room for Pavel Dorofeyev, though I wonder if they were worried that his shooting percentage was due for a decline that his new contract would not be able to justify.

If you couldn’t tell by the young player to watch, this team is OLD.3 They’re still getting decent mileage out of guys like Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, and Leo Karlsson. While it’s certainly worth asking whether age-related regression or injury woes could plague this team, I don’t think they’ll need to worry much this season. Even if it does, I’d expect them to be in on Connor Hellebuyck or Dylan Larkin should they be made available at the deadline. They’ll make the money work somehow, and we’ll all pretend to be surprised. I’ve got Vegas finishing 5th overall, with a fairly strong path to the Conference Final yet again. Save us San Jose, you’re our only hope!

Summary

All in all, here’s what I’ve got the Pacific Division shaking out as:

1. Vegas Golden Knights

2. Edmonton Oilers

3. Los Angeles Kings

4. San Jose Sharks

— Playoff Line —

5. Anaheim Ducks

6. Seattle Kraken

7. Calgary Flames

8. Vancouver Canucks

How do you feel about my projections? Was there something I missed in my brief analyses of these teams? As always, feel free to tell me what you think down in the comments. Next time around, we’ll be looking at the Central Division, including a brief breakdown about the Dallas Stars. You can expect a more thorough preview for the Boys in Green closer to the start of the season.

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Regardless of the emotions you felt when you heard the news, we can all breathe a brief sigh of relief. Arbitration is messy, and it frequently ends with players and clubs going separate ways within a year or two of the case. The Stars avoid that potential headache, and are now largely set for the upcoming season. There’s still some light work to be done, as the club is about $1.3 million over the salary cap, but the biggest question mark has been answered. Or has it? The Robertson Rumor Mill will almost certainly carry on as speculation about the price of the next contract or a trade-deadline deal abounds over the coming months. We’ll get into all of that, and more, as I share my thoughts on this signing and what it means for the Dallas Stars.

Running It Back, Just Like We Knew They Would

The Dallas Stars are officially running it back. In case you forgot, this is exactly what I said they should do after being ousted by the Minnesota Wild in Round One of the playoffs. In case their actions weren’t evidence enough, they actually used the phrase to announce the signing over on Twitter. This year is effectively a punt as they navigate the cap crunch; in keeping Jason Robertson, they lost Mavrik Bourque and were unable to improve the depth which failed them in the playoffs.1 Will it be worth it? Only time will tell.

I don’t necessarily blame you if you’re struggling to see a world where the same, if not marginally weakened, roster that got bounced by the Wild has a genuine shot at the Stanley Cup. I do want to talk you off the cliff though. For starters, Jason Robertson is Dallas’s best forward, full stop. He offers something that none of Dallas’s other forwards do: he’s a natural goal scorer and an incredible play maker with the ability to extend the attack, control territory, and make smart reads in his own zone. It all adds up to an impact that Dallas would be hard-pressed to make up for in the aggregate.

No other forward in Dallas’s lineup gives you this level of play across all of these aspects. Maybe you think Mikko Rantanen is the better game breaker, or that Roope Hintz is the better two-way player, or that Wyatt Johnston is the better goal scorer. Those are all fine arguments, and it’s a worthy debate across all of those dimensions, but I’ll raise you this: are any of those players in the conversation for any of those other titles? The through line isn’t that Robertson is none of those things, it’s that he could be all of those things. That’s something that no other forward on this roster can claim to be, at present; to me that makes him Dallas’s best forward.

So yes, having Jason Robertson on your roster, even at the expense of depth, is a very good thing. Don’t forget that the Stars were missing Roope Hintz and Tyler Seguin in the postseason, and were deploying an injured Mikko Rantanen. How different does that series look with everyone healthy? Combining this with the potential for growth amongst guys like Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, Lian Bichsel, Justin Hryckowian, and perhaps even the emergence of a prospect like Emil Hemming, and you start to see a world where running it back isn’t so bad. At least, I do.

Risking It All? Or a Galaxy-Brain Maneuver?

Like I said in the intro, the Robertson Rumor Mill is far from over. This one-year deal allows the Stars to better navigate the cap crunch without losing Robertson, but opens them up to a fairly scary outcome: Jason Robertson will be a UFA at the end of this season.

Now, this was always the likeliest outcome at this point in the process. Had the two sides gone through with arbitration, Robertson would have been signed to a one-year deal anyways. Still, it opens up a whole can of worms. For starters, if Robertson’s reported ask of $14 million AAV was too high for the Stars this year, what will they say when that number inevitably climbs to $15, $16, or even $17 million? We’re only at the beginning of this new era in salary-cap dynamics, and it’s already as crazy as I told you it would be.

Fortunately for the Stars, they should be able to afford a crazy number like $17 million thanks to the rising salary cap and the end of Tyler Seguin’s hefty contract. All it would come down to is whether Jason Robertson wants to be a Dallas Star, assuming the team is willing to hand him the blank check. If it’s any consolation, I think that this whole saga has pointed to Robertson wanting to stay in Dallas: he rejected multiple trades, never signed an offer sheet, and took a cheaper deal than what he might have been able to get at arbitration. I’m hopeful that we’ll see an extension handed out soon after Robertson becomes eligible on January 1st. That’s the galaxy-brain maneuver right there: the Stars essentially circumnavigate the salary cap through a cheap, one-year deal, with the understanding that they’ll give Robertson his pay day next year when they can afford it. Robertson gets to be paid what he’s worth and the Stars keep their best forward. Everyone wins, right?

Maybe, but there’s still risk involved. What happens if Robertson’s number is still somehow too high for the Stars? What if Robertson has a slow start to the season or gets injured, lowering his value in the eyes of the team? Does the Green Goblin Mask of a UFA pay day change Robertson’s mind about staying in the Lone Star State, leading to Dallas losing him for nothing? If negotiations stall again, what’s stopping the Stars from prematurely jettisoning Robertson at the trade deadline? Winning a Jason Robertson trade is going to be rather difficult, and who knows what a monumental shift does to your team as they enter the most-important stretch of the year.

These are the questions that I imagine your least favorite podcasters will be asking all year long, perhaps just a few hours after misreading the situation for the umpteenth time. If there’s anything this saga has taught you, it’s to pay them no attention. Jason Robertson was getting traded last summer until he wasn’t. He was going to be dealt this summer until he wasn’t. He was going to arbitration until he wasn’t. The only thing certain in these situations is uncertainty.

Well that, and the fact that Jason Robertson is a Dallas Star for one more year. Happy Tuesday, Stars fans!

The Dallas Stars have dealt with more than their fair share of drama this summer. I don’t want to spend to much time recapping every single rumor surrounding the Jason Robertson negotiations or a potential Zach Werenski trade, but we’ll certainly touch on those topics today. My objective, per usual, is to peer through the haze and breakdown exactly what the Stars have done this summer. Simply put: what is the vision for these Dallas Stars? Do I like the moves they’ve made thus far? And last but not least, what do these moves tell us about what Dallas’s next steps might be? That final question lends itself to some speculation, but my goal is that it be speculation based on what has actually happened, rather than some anonymous sources that may or may not exist.

Ready or not, here we go!

Lost in the Chaos

We’ll start by talking about the players who were moved out of Dallas, either by walking to free agency or as a victim of the cap crunch. The following players were impending unrestricted free agents (UFAs) who are either still available at the time of writing or wound up signing elsewhere.

• Nathan Bastian (F), UFA

• Michael Bunting (F), UFA

• Adam Erne (F), UFA

• Kole Lind (F), UFA

• Alex Petrovic (D), Signed $875K x 2 years with the Florida Panthers1

Of these names, I think the biggest loss is Michael Bunting, though it’s not like the Stars were in any position to afford him. AFP Analytics projects him to sign a four-year deal worth about $6m AAV, but the fact that he is still available past the free-agent frenzy on July 1st makes me wonder if he’ll end up signing a cheaper, shorter-term contract. The fact that Bunting never found his footing with the Stars remains one of the biggest “what ifs” from last season; some of the blame comes down to shoddy injury luck, but I do think that Glen Gulutzan’s decision not to play Bunting until game six of the playoffs (in which Bunting played quite well) remains one that I am incredibly critical of. Maybe he was never going to be the missing piece to Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen’s line, or maybe he was just never given a proper opportunity.

The other UFAs are fairly replaceable players, with Bastian and Erne being signed as 13th and 14th forwards late in the summer of 2025. Alex Petrovic, who the Stars attempted to re-sign, got himself a nice deal as a depth defenseman with the team that drafted him into the NHL.

Taking a look at the restricted free agents (RFAs) now, there were quite a few whose rights the Stars chose not to retain, thus making them UFAs. Dallas could still sign any of these available players if they’d like, but I’d imagine that the organization has moved on from almost all of them at this point in time:

• Vladislav Kolyachonok (D), Signed $850K x 1 year with the New Jersey Devils

• Francesco Arcuri (F), UFA

• Benjamin Kraws (G), UFA

• Kyle McDonalds (F), UFA

• Antonio Stranges (F), UFA

• Jérémie Porier (D), UFA2

• Antonio Stranges (F), UFA

• Samu Tuomaala (F), UFA

• Chase Wheatcroft (F), UFA

Most of these players profile as career AHLers, so it’s not surprising to me that the Stars chose to let them go. The only question mark for me was Vladislav Kolyachonok, who I would’ve loved to see the Stars keep as a potential 7th defenseman this year. I saw some initial reporting that he was planning on returning to Europe next season, so seeing him sign elsewhere in the NHL feels like a missed opportunity for Dallas. I’ve got nothing against Kyle Capobianco but, given that he and Kolyachonok are on similar deals, I feel like it would’ve made more sense for the Stars to prioritize the latter due to the fact that he is younger and has higher upside.3 This is all assuming, of course, that Kolyachonok wanted to stay in Dallas, which is never a guarantee.

Goodbye, Goodbye, You Were Bigger Than the Whole Sky

The Stars didn’t just lose players to free agency this year. In fact, the most impactful change to Dallas’s roster this summer came as the result of a trade on July 1st. I’m talking about none other than Mavrik Bourque, one of Dallas’s best up-and-coming skaters. Bourque being a victim of the cap crunch was something I predicted at the beginning of last season, and it was quite heartbreaking to see the future come to pass. Bourque was one of my favorite players to watch this year, and he projects to be a solid middle-six forward with top-six upside.

There’s a handful of ways to look at this trade. For one, the Stars just lost one of their best depth pieces from last season. Bourque helped forge a fairly dominant third line alongside Justin Hyrckowian and Oskar Bäck whose only flaw was their inability to finish on their chances. His versatility was displayed in his seamless fit alongside Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz/Wyatt Johnston as a genuinely threatening top-line option. In a playoff series where Dallas’s goal scoring was sent to the shadow realm (outside of Jason Robertson), Bourque was the only depth piece to find twine.4 His loss will almost certainly be felt, especially when one considers that Bourque is likely going to improve next year.

Beyond that, this trade did make something very clear to me: as of (at least) July 1st, the Stars planned on keeping Jason Robertson. There was a universe where Dallas managed to retain both Robertson and Bourque, but as Robertson’s potential cap hit climbed higher and higher that universe became quite reliant on Bourque taking another team-friendly deal. Just as Robertson has every right to get paid what he’s owed, so too does Mavrik Bourque. His $5.5m x 6 year deal should age quite nicely for the Nashville Predators, and was well beyond what the Stars could realistically afford. Based on Jim Nill’s comments, it was this price tag and the threat of an impending offer sheet that forced Dallas’s hand. They packaged the rights to Bourque with Ilya Lyubushkin’s contract (another sin of Jim Nill’s past) in return for draft picks, a 2027 2nd and a 2028 3rd.

Losing Mavrik Bourque in order to keep Jason Robertson is something that I can live with. The main problem is that Jason Robertson remains unsigned, which made me question whether the Stars pulled the trigger too early on dealing Bourque. If Dallas is still uncertain about Robertson’s future, why not let Bourque be offer sheeted by the Predators? His new cap hit implies that he would have gotten the Stars a 1st and 3rd round draft pick as compensation. By attaching Lyubushkin to the deal, the Stars seem to have downgraded that 1st-round pick to a 2nd. Did Jim Nill’s panic cause him to act out of haste?

While that was going to be my initial take, I went ahead and crunched the numbers and got some closure about this trade. The biggest factor to me was that the Stars’ seven-day window to match a potential offer sheet would have included Sunday’s news that Robertson is pursuing arbitration. It turns out that things would have had to go absolutely perfect for the Stars for this to matter at all. I’m sure there’s a universe out there where Bourque gets offer sheeted for closer to $4.5m, it comes out that Robertson is going to arbitration, and the Stars successfully bank on that case ending with a one-year, $12m deal for Robertson. In that Doctor Strange “only one” timeline, the Stars end up keeping both Robertson and Bourque, perhaps even for the long term. Alas, that is not the universe we live in. I understand now why Dallas wound up making the trade; there was simply too much uncertainty involved in feasibly keeping both Bourque and Robertson. While I do still wonder how much Bourque’s return was reduced by attaching Lyubushkin, I also understand the decision if it was the only way to free the Stars of that contract. In any case, Bourque’s loss must not be in vain. If he was a victim of the cap crunch, then Robertson absolutely cannot be.

Familiar Faces and Their Implications

Now that we’ve talked about all of the exits, let’s get into who the Stars kept and added this summer. As it turns out, most of them should be pretty familiar names to Stars fans! The following players re-signed with the Dallas Stars this summer:

• Jamie Benn (F), $850K x 1 year (with performance bonuses)

• Arttu Hyry (F), $875K x 2 years

• Kyle Capobianco (D), $875K x 2 years

• Artem Shlaine (F), $952.5K x 1 year

• Harrison Scott (F), $875K x 2 years

• Matthew Seminoff (F), $875K x 2 years

• Luke Krys (D), $875K x 2 years

The bottom four names are guys who should spend a majority of their time down in Cedar Park with the Texas Stars, representing Jim Nill’s attempt at maintaining strong organizational depth. The top three got NHL minutes this year, and are exactly the moves I’ve been projecting the Stars to make if they want to keep Jason Robertson.

For starters, I loved the Arttu Hyry signing. The young Finn does most of Radek Faksa’s job (killing penalties and winning faceoffs) for half the price and with greater offensive upside, making Faksa replaceable. Moving Faksa is something that the Stars will need to do if they want to keep Jason Robertson at his asking price of $14 million. To me, signing Hyry implies that the Stars are prepared to do that, even if it means trading Faksa just one year into his deal (a deal that I was opposed to from the beginning, but alas).

Kyle Capobianco, signed to be the 7th defenseman for Dallas, will give you exactly what you need in that role. As much as I might have preferred Kolyachonok, I do enjoy that Capobianco brings some offensive instincts to the depth-defenseman role.

Last but certainly not least is Jamie Benn, who will be returning for what could be his last season. Whatever you think of Benn’s role as the Captain of the Stars, his on-ice impact remains solid for a player of his age. As a result, his contract is extremely team friendly, being a league-minimum deal with some performance bonuses. Keep in mind that bonuses aren’t applied to the salary cap until the end of the season, and can transfer over to next season’s cap if they cause the team to exceed the salary cap. Given that the Stars are on track to be starved of scoring depth in the bottom-six, bringing back Benn at this cap hit was among Nill’s best options.

None of these guys break the bank, and so are exactly the type of players you’d expect the Stars to keep if they’re trying to leave cap space open for a superstar winger. The same concept applies to the free agents that Jim Nill brought in this summer, one of which is a fan-favorite former Star:

• Joel Kiviranta (F), $1m x 1 year

• Brandon Halverson (G), $850K x 1 year

• Kyle Burroughs (D), $850K x 1 year

I’ll start with the bottom two names on this list; Brandon Halverson looks to be the “4th goalie” in Dallas’s system, and will likely spend the year in Cedar Park. He’s had some solid seasons in the AHL, but has not broken through at the NHL level at this point in his career. Kyle Burroughs is a right-shot, seventh defenseman who may get some time in the NHL depending on how things shake out. By all accounts, he seems to be an Alex Petrovic replacement.

The most exciting name is Joel Kiviranta, a bit of a legend in Dallas on account of his incredible hat trick against the Colorado Avalanche in game seven of the second round of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs. This was a particularly special game for me, as I’d consider it the moment I became a hockey fan for life. If you somehow haven’t heard the Finnish call of that game, do yourself a favor and take a listen.

Kiviranta profiles as a two-way, bottom-six winger that can kill penalties. Similarly to Arttu Hyry, I see him as a cheaper version of a current roster player: Sam Steel. The fact that he’s a former member of the Finnish mafia who has also played with Mikko Rantanen only adds to the fun of this signing.

The Jason Robertson Situation

I’m still on board with keeping Jason Robertson, for reasons I’ve articulated countless times at this point. Where the Stars fall on this issue has been up in the air throughout the summer. I’d argue that Plan A for Jim Nill was actually to trade Jason Robertson ahead of the draft. His asking price, as reasonable as it is for the player that he is (and will be), would cause some headaches for the Stars due to their cap situation. That all seemed to change when Robertson nixed the trade to the Seattle Kraken (and potentially also to the Blues). He wants to be paid what he’s worth, but he wants to be paid by Dallas.

Since then, Jim Nill has behaved as though keeping Jason Robertson is the new priority. He swung for the fences, trying to acquire Zach Werenski in a deal that would have actually improved Dallas’s blue line while also saving them some money. Keeping Jamie Benn and Arttu Hyry and bringing in Joel Kiviranta are exactly the type of free-agent moves I expected the Stars to make if they were hoping to keep Robertson. Hyry and Kiviranta in particular profile as cheaper replacements to Radek Faksa and Sam Steel, giving Dallas the leeway to ship out the latter two for additional cap space as needed. Yes, the Stars would be sacrificing some depth to keep their home-grown superstar on the roster, but it would only be for a single season. The salary cap is growing after all, and Seguin’s contract coming off of the books next year will only add to the sudden wealth of cap space in Dallas.

The only thing throwing a wrench in all this is Jason Robertson’s decision to take the Stars to arbitration. It somewhat reiterates the idea that Robertson wants to play in Dallas next year, as electing arbitration takes the threat of an offer sheet off of the table. It also adds some risk though: an arbitrated contract typically only carries a one-year term, which means that Robertson could very easily walk as a UFA at the end of the season.5 If that’s how this all unfolds, then the Stars could lose him for nothing.

That’s my biggest concern with all of this. History says that a player who heads to arbitration is more likely than not to leave the team within a year. If the goal is to keep Jason Robertson for the long term, arbitration isn’t exactly the safest route. Now, not all players who elect arbitration make it to a trial; Robertson could sign an extension tomorrow and make this whole section irrelevant. There is also a universe where this entire situation was a complex salary-cap circumvention strategy by Nill and Robertson, in which they feigned contentious negotiations in order to get a cheaper, arbitrated contract that allows Dallas to survive the cap crunch of this year, only for the Stars to reward Robertson with a hefty extension on January 1st.

As fun as that scenario would be, the likelier story is often the simpler one: Jason Robertson wants to be paid what he deserves (reportedly $14m AAV) in an era where the salary cap is skyrocketing. The maximum that the Stars can offer him is somewhere in the realm of $13.6m and $14m AAV, and it would require blowing up the team’s depth in order to do so. Jim Nill, and owner Tom Gaglardi, seem hesitant to do that.

Here’s my take: if Robertson’s number is $14 million, then you pay Robertson $14 million. He’s worth it, and it’ll probably be a steal within a year or two. Perennial 40-goal scorers don’t grow on trees, and they certainly don’t when that perennial 40-goal scorer is also an elite two-way winger.

The Stars have done everything you’d expect from a team willing to pay Robertson what he’s owed aside from signing him to a contract. With arbitration on the horizon, they can no longer get a haul of four first-round picks for the superstar winger. A trade wouldn’t be impossible, but electing arbitration likely drives Robertson’s value down in the eyes of the rest of the NHL. The fact that league has already seen him reject an eye-popping salary probably didn’t help either. Don’t forget that the Stars have to try and win a Robertson trade as well; a 1-for-1 with Detroit that swaps Robertson for Larkin isn’t going to cut it.

Letting this get to arbitration opens up a whole can of worms. How much more money is Robertson going to cost in a year? $14 million might be tough this year, but I can virtually guarantee you that it will be a steal in comparison to his ask one year from now. It’s not just the rising salary cap, either. The appeal of the UFA tag is that every team can now call and make an offer; increased demand will only drive Robertson’s price higher and higher. Jim Nill and Tom Gaglardi’s desires to save money now could end up costing them money later. Still worse: they could just lose Robertson for nothing. It’d also mean losing out on Mavrik Bourque, missing the chance to flip Robertson for assets this summer when his value was the highest, and wasting a year of free agency by signing cheaper version of guys you already have, all for nothing.

Plan A was to trade Jason Robertson; it didn’t work. Plan B seems to be to keep Jason Robertson, yet they’ve still not signed him. The longer this situation plays out, the worse losing Robertson could be. I’m left hoping, like many of you, that Jim Nill does have a plan for how this all plays out. After all, a visionless team that seeks inaction in the face of uncertainty is only going to get left behind, and getting left behind is the last thing that the Dallas Stars can afford.

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From Brady Tkachuk to Dylan Larkin to Jason Robertson, this offseason has had its fair share of eyebrow raising headlines. Given the relative weakness of this free-agent class, it’s not entirely surprising that we’ve seen teams turn to trades to shake up their lineup. Even then, I don’t think anyone expected it to be this dramatic. Alex Tuch, Darren Raddysh, Šimon Nemec, Bowen Byram, and the aforementioned Brady Tkachuk were just a handful of the players dealt over the last month. Still others were shipped off as teams seek to clear cap space ahead of marquis contract extensions. And, of course, rumors are already abounding around superstars due for a raise years from now. What exactly is going on this summer? And is it really all that different from years past? My hope is to provide you with some answers to these questions as best I can, such that you can be prepared for what the future has to offer the NHL.

The Typical Offseason Variables

The truth is, I think that there are three major dynamics at play this summer, all of which will continue to impact future NHL offseasons, at least in the short term. The first is nothing new, which is why I’m calling it the “Typical Offseason Variables.” These include all of the factors we’re used to talking about when the offseason arrives: team needs, player availability, cap space, and plenty others. These Typical Offseason Variables help explain, in part, why a team like the Washington Capitals would pony up for guys like Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou. In this case, Washington is seeking to address a team need in improving their rush offense. They also partially explain why the Dallas Stars are at an impasse in the Jason Robertson situation: they are hard pressed for cap space, and will likely need to make quite a few roster moves in order to retain Robertson.1

The offseason is the prime time for change in the NHL. It’s when old contracts end and new contracts begin. It’s the one time of year where changes to a team do not have to be immediately preceded or succeeded by on-ice performance. Thus, it is also the time where General Managers (GMs) and clubs can take the most risk. There is no game happening the next day by which ownership, the media, fans, and even the locker room can assess your performance (however unjust an assessment that would be). All criticism in the offseason, however valid it may be, is ultimately theoretical in nature. On top of that, the passage of time between major moves in June and July and the start of the preseason in late August and early September gives everyone time to bask in the feeling of hopefulness that accompanies the start of a new season. There is a sense of safety in offseason change, even when offseason change may be anything but safe.

I’ve already alluded to it, but the relative weakness of this year’s free-agent class is certainly playing a large role in how this offseason has gone. Teams are navigating this reality in a few different ways: they either trade for the rights to the top free agents (see the cases of Darren Raddysh, John Carlson, and Alex Tuch) or are trading for players that are already under contract. The speculation around a higher likelihood of offer sheets this summer feels well placed given this context, especially considering that available Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) would be on the younger side of the aging curve, thus giving them a higher upside that would command the necessary price tag and draft assets needed to acquire a player in this way. Teams that wait until July 1st will be left with an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) class headlined by guys like Rasmus Andersson, Anthony Mantha, Jacob Trouba, Patrick Kane, and Mats Zuccarello. As is typical with UFAs, it tends to be the older and post-prime players that are available to sign. Nobody exemplifies this more than Alexander Ovechkin, whose decision on retirement remains up in the air. Despite age concerns, these are still (mostly) impactful players, but the law of supply and demand will almost certainly drive the price of these UFAs higher than their on-ice value. Not higher than teams looking for answers will be willing to pay, mind you, but higher nonetheless.

While these variables are familiar to us, they don’t explain the entirety of what we’ve seen this summer. The reason for this is that these Typical Offseason Variables are very likely interacting with the other two dynamics at play here: the rapidly rising salary cap and a potential transformation in how players and teams negotiate.

The World of the Rising Salary Cap

Although the salary cap certainly has its negative impacts on the workers of the NHL, the players, I do thoroughly appreciate the strategic environment it creates. GMs are rewarded and punished for their decisions. Those who are able to maximize value will find the most success. Just ask Erik Tulsky in Carolina.

With regard to the salary cap, the NHL is experiencing a rapid change in its strategic environment. For years, the cap was constantly growing, and GMs began to adapt accordingly. Teams recognized the importance of locking up talent on deals that would age well in the era of the rising cap. Take Kyle Dubas in Toronto, for example, who signed (then) young superstars Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews to fairly lucrative deals. Although we can certainly criticize them for creating a rather homogenous core, the main idea behind their signing strategy was not as bad as hindsight makes it look. Dubas was operating in an era where the salary cap was growing. Those cap hits were poised to age like fine wine. Instead, a global pandemic resulted in the NHL transitioning into the Flat Cap Era, in which the salary cap did not grow from the 2019-2020 season to that of 2022-2023.

The Flat Cap Era had drastic impacts on the way NHL GMs could run their teams. A fixed salary cap meant that those beefy contracts signed in years prior were unable to appreciate value. Players might still be improving, certainly, but there was far less room for error when it came to supporting superstars with depth. Still worse were the cases of contracts that aged poorly. Albatrosses attached to aging veterans were not privy to the grace imposed by a growing salary cap. Rather than shrinking into triviality, these once-fine contracts were now major problems for teams. On top of all this, the churn of fresh players into the league continued, meaning that new superstars were arriving and needed their paydays. Teams had to rapidly change their approach to contracting if they were to remain competitive during this brief but significant period in NHL history.

The most important solution for the purposes of this analysis, in my opinion, was the use of “bridge deals” to manage the arrival of young players. In the Flat Cap Era, maximizing the value of a contract relative to cap hit became extremely important. One of the best methods in this regard was the use Entry Level Contracts (ELC), the extremely cheap contracts that draft picks and other young players are signed to for the first few years of their NHL careers. A budding superstar that is signed to an ELC and available to their NHL team represents one of the most valuable contracts in the league relative to their cap hit. It’s hard to imagine a team like the Dallas Stars being as competitive as they were without guys like Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, Logan Stankoven, and others being available on such cheap ELCs for stretches of the last four or five years.

As these ELCs came to an end, teams would obviously prefer to continue maximizing the value of these young superstars’ contracts. As a result, clubs like the Dallas Stars pushed for frequent bridge deals, or shorter term, lower cap hit contracts. Historically, these deals were less acceptable to players for obvious reasons: if a player’s on-ice value exploded, they would be stuck at a lower cap hit for the remainder of the deal. Beyond the monetary impacts, that also meant more time for something to go amiss, a down year or injury trouble for instance, which could then influence the price of the next contract.

This begs the question: why would players accept these bridge deals in the first place? I think there are a few explanations at play. For starters, bridge deals are typically used during a player’s RFA years, meaning teams have greater leverage in the negotiating room. A player that refuses to sign these team-friendly deals has very few alternatives for playing (and getting paid) beyond that offered by their rights-holding team. Another factor is the fact that players and their agents, like GMs, are also strategic players in the salary cap game. These bridge deals offered an opportunity for players to “bet on themselves” and drive their on-ice value quite high ahead of future negotiations.2 This is especially true for deals signed near the end of the Flat Cap Era, when it became increasingly obvious that a new reality was fast approaching: the salary cap was going to grow, and player’s salaries were going to follow suit.

We now find ourselves in this new era of NHL contract politics. The cap has began its rapid acceleration, and both teams and players are adapting accordingly. Superstars are demanding eyebrow raising salaries (see Kirill Kaprizov and Jason Robertson), and why shouldn’t they? In five years time, those cap hits will look like child’s play. For those shocked to see numbers well above $12 million, get ready to be blown away when this batch of top defensemen hit free agency or become eligible to sign extensions: Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar, and Zach Werenski. Teams that had gotten used to the brief yet painful world of the Flat Cap Era must now adapt to this new reality. It’s easier said than done for some clubs, but in general my approach would be this: the sticker shocks of today are going to be the bargains of tomorrow, and the bargains of today will be genuine robbery by the end of the decade.3

One possible outcome of this new era is that bridge deals could become less common as teams realize that paying a player more money now will actually be cheaper for the club in the long run. Funnily enough, players that want to maximize their banks account might end up having more incentive to sign shorter term contracts, at least as long as they are willing to bet that their play will not fall off a cliff anytime soon. While there will always be incentive for players to sign max-term contracts because of the guarantee it provides, I do expect some young players, like the Wyatt Johnstons of the world, to be willing to sign for four or five years such that they can balloon their salaries right as they hit their prime.

As an aside, an easy way to evaluate contracts going forward will be to focus on their cap-hit percentages rather than their raw dollars. The clubs that hold steady to “internal caps” or say that one player simply can’t make more than another player are going to be left behind.

Bringing us back down from the realm of the abstract, we’re already seeing the impact of the rising salary cap in contracts all around the league. Pavel Dorofeyev signing for $11 million AAV in New York isn’t an overpay, but the new normal. Bowen Byram reportedly wanting $12 million is certainly a high asking price, but if Chicago expects him to be their number-one defenseman then they will have to foot the bill for it. You’re seeing a similar inflationary impact on the contracts of lower-impact guys like Brett Kulak and Jack Drury. Combining the effect of the rising salary cap with the relatively thin and weak UFA market this year should result in some high prices on July 1st.

Power to the Players?

The last major dynamic I believe to be at play this offseason is a shift in the way that negotiations between players and their clubs are handled. More specifically, there appears to be an ongoing transfer of power from the clubs to the players, at least at the surface level. Whether players actually have more leverage or not is unclear to me, but it does seem as though they are more willing to use their leverage in negotiations than they have been in years past.

I think that the most obvious case study into this are the recent “Team USA Trade Rumors” involving Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Larkin, Connor Hellebuyck, and Zach Werenski. It’s important to sift through these on a case-by-case basis, as there are nuances to each player’s individual circumstances. Starting with Tkachuk, the story goes that he informed the Ottawa Senators that he did not intend to sign an extension with them when he hit free agency in two years. As a result, the club pivoted to trade him, but Tkachuk’s full No-Movement Clause (NMC) severely limited potential landing spots. Tkachuk was able to use this leverage to his advantage, ultimately finding his way to the Florida Panthers to play with his brother Matthew.

The Dylan Larkin situation is similar, although in this case Larkin’s camp explicitly requested a trade. He’s under contract until 2031, and possess a No-Trade Clause (NTC), once again restricting his club’s options to the handful of destinations that Larkin would want to play for. Speculation revolving around Winnipeg Jets’ goaltender Connor Hellebuyck implies similar circumstances. Meanwhile, Zach Werenski’s situation would more closely mirror that of Brady Tkachuk. Beyond the coincidental (but perhaps not spurious) fact that all of these players were on the team that won Olympic Gold, all of these situations involved star players seeking a change of scenery while using the legal avenues available to them to exert control over their futures.

As it turns out, this isn’t exactly a unique event in NHL history. In 2014, Martin St. Louis requested a trade out of Tampa Bay, and reportedly preferred his eventual landing spot, the New York Rangers as his next destination. Dany Heatley infamously nixed a potential trade to Edmonton in 2009, less than a year after requesting a trade out of Ottawa. From my brief survey of NHL history, I am confident that other situations like these have arisen before, but it would require a much more thorough case-by-case analysis to uncover the full extent and context behind each instance. My current conclusion is that, while this might not be the first time that players have requested trades and used their NTCs to help determine their own futures, this summer does seem to be seeing a spike in the number of cases happening all at once.4

While Brady Tkachuk was ultimately dealt, the other three players have not been, at the time of writing. This does present a rather curious situation, in which these superstar players will be expected to play for their current clubs, some of which have playoff aspirations, after it’s gone public that they would rather be on a different team. I don’t know that it’s worth speculating exactly how this impacts a team’s locker room, but I would guess that it is not beneficial.5 I’d argue that this actually gives some additional leverage to the player, as GMs might be further incentivized to trade away a potential locker room problem even if the return is less than ideal, so as to avoid throwing away an entire season.

My lingering uncertainty around this supposed transformation in the distribution of power between players and clubs is whether there has actually been any change at all. In some sense, it would be a natural step in the evolution between the teams and players. It feels like not that long ago that we saw serious movement towards “players’ coaches,” and the NHL has had its fair share of rookies throughout its history who have refused to sign with their drafting clubs.6 It also reads as a strategic response to previous decisions by clubs. After all, NTCs and NMCs did not appear in a vacuum; they’re a tool GMs can use within negotiations, perhaps as a concession for a lower salary or shorter term. Players are well within their rights to use these clauses as they wish, so should we really be all that surprised that they are doing so in a way that maximizes their own benefit?

This dynamic also interacts with the other two dynamics we’ve previously discussed, particular with regard to contract negotiations with RFAs. Take for instance the Jason Robertson situation, particularly the news that a trade between the Dallas Stars and Seattle Kraken broke down when Robertson’s camp informed Seattle that he did not want to sign there. A similar situation may have unfolded with St. Louis as well, assuming that the reporting on this situation is accurate. The fact that this is all stemming from the perfect fusion of Robertson’s demands that he be paid what he is worth, in line with what we’d expect in the era of the skyrocketing salary cap, and Dallas’s salary cap problems (a Typical Offseason Variable) helps showcase how all of these dynamics are interconnected with one another.

If this last dynamic is a genuine transformation unfolding before our very eyes, expect more of these trade-request hostage situations, in which big-name players seeking an exit from their current situations use their rights to negotiate exactly how that exit will go down. Additionally, I wonder whether GMs might be more reluctant to hand out NTCs and NMCs in the future, especially those GMs that have had personal experience with these scenarios.

Closing Remarks

This offseason has been quite entertaining thus far, with numerous high-profile trades and blockbuster headlines. In my attempt to explain exactly what is going on in the NHL, I have identified three key dynamics I believe to be at play. The first, our Typical Offseason Variables, is nothing new. The second, the rapid increase in the salary cap, projects to have a massive impact on future offseasons by changing the way players and teams approach player salaries. The third, which I have identified as a shift in negotiating leverage towards players, is harder to define, but recent events seem to imply that something is happening here, even if we need a few more offseasons’ worth of data and a deeper dive into NHL history to determine the full extent to which the power struggle between players and clubs have changed. Nonetheless, it is clear that all three of these dynamics are rather interconnected with one another, which is likely producing an even more chaotic offseason.

What is in store for the future of the NHL offseason? In a world where the salary cap is rapidly expanding, players are more willing than ever to leverage their power in negotiations, and where NHL teams are still constrained by the usual offseason variables, hockey fans should learn to expect the unexpected. As the dynamics revolving around the offseason begins to shift, so too will teams’ strategies. The most successful clubs will be those led by General Managers that can best and most rapidly adapt to the new landscape of the NHL.

Get ready to have your socks blown off, hockey fans. The crazy summers are just getting started.

A special thanks to the one and only David Castillo, whose lighthearted encouragement for me to write this article actually broke through some writer’s block that I’ve been having this summer.

All contract data mentioned in this article is courtesy of PuckPedia.

I’d imagine that this outcome was the preferred choice for most Stars fans. The Golden Knights and the Stars have built a strong rivalry over the last few seasons, and Logan Stankoven remains an extremely popular player back in Dallas. For me, this was an easy series to generate a rooting interest in: Carolina is my second-favorite team, while Vegas is my least favorite (sorry, not sorry, Knights fans).

With the 2025-2026 season officially complete, we now look ahead towards 2026-2027 and beyond, in the hopes that it will be the Dallas Stars who are left as the last team standing. After every Stanley Cup Final, we see a host of pieces about what teams should take away from the new Cup Champions. The vibes surrounding the Hurricanes makes them feel different from past winners like Florida and Vegas, and there are some unique takeaways here to be sure, but for the most part they embody exactly what is needed to be a Stanley Cup Champion in this present era of the NHL. Without further ado, let’s examine what the Stars can learn from the Canes, in the hopes of replicating their success sooner rather than later.

The Numbers Matter

Early into the 2025-2026 season, we took a look at how the Dallas Stars were stacking up to recent Stanley Cup Champions in terms of underlying numbers. Let’s go ahead and throw the 2026 Playoff Carolina Hurricanes into our spreadsheets, as well as the 2025-2026 Dallas Stars now that the season is done with. I’ll be periodically including some screenshots of the numbers throughout this piece, but have also linked it here so that you can comb through it for yourself. All data is courtesy of MoneyPuck.

Carolina fits right in with past Cup winners in a way that the Dallas Stars of this year did not. Among the last six champions, they were second in 5-on-5 expected-goal share (56.42%) behind only the 2022 Colorado Avalanche, and first in 5-on-5 Corsi (58.15%). The Hurricanes controlled play at the level we’ve come to expect from Stanley Cup Champions and then some. The same cannot be said for the Dallas Stars.1

If you’ve spent anytime on social media, you’ve likely come across the claims that these numbers don’t matter (expected goals? expected by whom?) and that things like grit and the “right” team culture are what teams really need to win it all. I’ll step on the soap box here: I think that the vibes of past winners (particularly the Florida Panthers) have allowed pundits to grasp at these low-hanging fruits when discussing Stanley Cup Winners, despite the fact that these past winners have just as often been elite in the ways that actually matter (the ability to control play). I’m certain that we’ll see plenty more low-effort articles and podcast episodes pushing Carolina’s grueling forecheck and the clear sense of brotherhood inside of Rod Brind'Amour’s locker room as evidence towards the grit/culture arguments, even if the real culprit couldn’t be more obvious.2

If they want to be Stanley Cup Champions, then the Dallas Stars desperately need to start controlling the game. They don’t need more grit or a better culture; they need to dictate play. Next year, I’ll be paying close attention to whether or not Glen Gulutzan can evolve his system in order to make improvements in this regard. If not, prepare for disappointment in the postseason once again, Stars fans.

Superstars and Chemistry

One immediate difference between the Dallas Stars and the Carolina Hurricanes is their roster construction. Now, these are far from scientific terms, but I think it is fair to say that Dallas’s roster is primarily built on the backs of a very elite core, while Carolina is more well-rounded throughout the lineup. There is quite a large drop off between Dallas’s superstars and their depth, thanks in part to the club having to manage a rather tight salary cap situation.

The salary cap is a problem that is partially inevitable and yet also self-imposed. Dallas’s ability to draft well has delivered them elite talent deserving of big contracts. In this regard, Jim Nill tends to consistently sign deals that age well. At the same time, he has handcuffed himself over and over again with bizarre decision making in free agency, burning money on the margins when the margins matter the most. The contracts for Ryan Suter, Matt Dumba, Ilya Lyubushkin, Radek Faksa are just a few that come to mind as missed opportunities, in which the Stars overpaid on the margins without significantly improving their depth.

Who are the superstars of the Carolina Hurricanes? I’d argue there aren’t any. Elite talent, certainly, but nobody quite at the level of Jason Robertson or Miro Heiskanen. What the Hurricanes lack in superstardom they make up for in incredible chemistry. Consider the line of Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven, and Jackson Blake. Are any of those three genuine superstars in the NHL? The answer to that rhetorical question is no, and yet they managed to dominate the league in the postseason, boasting an expected-goal share of 66.4%.3 They weren’t the only beastly grouping on this Hurricanes roster either. All three of this blue line’s defensive pairings won their minutes in terms of expected-goal share.

Jaccob Slavin - Jalen Chatfield (53.6%)

K’Andre Miller - Sean Walker (62%)

Shayne Gostisbehere - Alexander Nikishin (61.7%)

Their core pieces, namely Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Andrei Svechnikov were relatively disappointing this playoffs, all things considered. But that matters a lot less when your third line of Nikolaj Ehlers, Jordan Staal, and Jordan Martinook manage to throw together a 67.3% expected-goal share. Before this year, would anyone have called guys like Nikolaj Ehlers, K’Andre Miller, and Taylor Hall playoff performers? Carolina didn’t need superstar talent, instead acquiring cast-aside pieces to forge a roster that thrived in their system. Their chemistry was absolutely game breaking.

I don’t think the same can be said about the Dallas Stars. We talked all year about trying to find the right piece to slot in next to Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen, to little avail. The trios of Robertson-Johnston-Bourque and Steel-Duchene-Benn showed flashes of brilliance, but otherwise the Stars lacked the depth needed to support their top talent.

This isn’t a knock on Dallas’s methodology. I do think that building a core like the Stars have done is a key step to winning the Stanley Cup.4 The Stars simply need to provide this core with depth that can elevate their capabilities. They need better chemistry. The Hurricanes showcase just how deadly a well-constructed roster can be, and it’ll take time for the Stars to acquire the cap space necessary to try and mimic Carolina in this regard.

Extending the Contention Window

One thing that should terrify you about these Carolina Hurricanes is that they won the Stanley Cup with about $12 million in cap space. On top of that, their entire Cup-winning roster is effectively locked up for next year, with much of their core signed to extremely solid deals for the remainder of the decade. They are really only missing a genuine number one goaltender in my eyes, though I’m uncertain that a team even needs that to get the job done. Furthermore, they’ve got five first-round draft picks over the next four years, and still possess all of their own picks from 2027 and beyond. This combination of locking up their core to efficient contracts and possessing both the cap space and draft capital needed to add to this roster down the line means that Carolina is poised to continue contending throughout this decade and beyond.

A lot of the credit here has to be given to General Manager Eric Tulsky, who has rapidly risen to the top of my list in terms of the best GMs in the league. Tulsky’s fingerprints can also be found all over the prior two sections, given his background in hockey analytics and his successful pivot during the Mikko Rantanen saga. Carolina actually did attempt to add a genuine superstar to their roster in Rantanen, but after it became clear that the player did not want to sign long term, Tulsky managed to turn a potentially dire situation into Logan Stankoven and the draft picks and cap space used to acquire K’Andre Miller and Nikolaj Ehlers this summer. That’s what extending the window looks like.

Luckily for the Stars, they’ve done a fairly good job at checking this box over the last few years. In particular, Dallas has frequently hit on draft picks late in the first-round and throughout the second-round, allowing them to build up their core and then infuse that core with additional young talent. This has been quite helpful in allowing the Stars to manage cap space through the use of cheap entry-level contracts. While those ELCs are becoming less common as young players transform into NHL regulars, the Stars still get to boast the fruits of their labor via a core whose best years are still ahead of them. This level of home-grown talent would make most other NHL teams jealous:

Consider also the fact that the Stars used picks and prospects for the following notable pieces:

• Mikko Rantanen (In Prime): Acquired via trade for Logan Stankoven (2021, 47th OA pick, 2nd Rd) and multiple first-round draft picks.

• Nils Lundkvist (Improving): Acquired via trade for a first-round draft pick.

In recent years where Cup contention has caused the well to run a bit dry in the draft pick department, the Stars have managed to continue adding young talent by signing undrafted free agents like Justin Hryckowian and Arttu Hyry. Emil Hemming, another late first-round pick, is the biggest name remaining in their prospect pipeline at this time.

Dallas’s path to extending their cup window is a bit different than that of Carolina. The Stars are lacking in both the draft capital and cap space departments. To me, that’s the biggest reason why Dallas should look at 2026-2027 as a year to simply “run it back” and allow the coffers to recover from previous all-in years. We’ve seen what the Stars can do with 1st and 2nd round picks before, and it would be great to see them hit at the draft table this year and next with the picks they do possess. In the meantime, they can use increased cap space in the summer of 2027 to acquire the depth talent needed to properly support the locked-up core. Doing this to help extend the window, rather than blowing it all up to go all-in next year simply because fans and the organization are anxious to see this team win the Cup, is the path of champions.

Patience > Panic

That last paragraph segues neatly into the topic I wanted to discuss in this section: patience. The Carolina Hurricanes and Dallas Stars are actually rather similar, in that both have spent the past five or six years contending for the Cup but routinely coming up short in the Conference Final Round. With regard to the Hurricanes, they were frequently embarrassed upon reaching the second-to-last stage in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They found themselves on the wrong end of a gentleman’s sweep in 2025 and a genuine sweep in 2023, both at the hands of the Florida Panthers. Year after year, they were among the best teams in the NHL both in the standings and analytics. Did the Hurricanes ever blow it all up after frustrating playoff losses? No. They’ve largely been the same team throughout the process, making improvements here and there in the form of new players or system tweaks. They’ve practiced patience, rather than panic.

This philosophy has been somewhat foundational to my writing on the Stars, so forgive me if a lot of this sounds familiar. The most obvious case study is that of Jason Robertson, a player who we were told was not a playoff performer… until he was. Similarly, we’ve been told for the last year and a half that Dallas’s only hope is to trade him, despite being among the best forwards in the league. I think that Thomas Harley’s down year has generated questions about his worth and contract value that we might chuckle about in three years if he re-emerges as the player we know he is.

Guys that have never won a Stanley Cup aren’t capable of it until they suddenly do. Teams don’t have the cap space to keep Player X until he’s retained. That prospect won’t make the NHL until he’s in the opening night roster. Plenty of narratives in the NHL are destroyed as quickly as they are built; time always tells in the end.

What I’m getting at here is that 31 of 32 teams lose the Stanley Cup every single year. If that’s your measure of success, be prepared for disappointment. Carolina was rewarded for being patient. At present, I don’t see a world where panic or blowing it all up is the best way forward for the Stars. Thus, patience will have to do.

Getting Lucky

Here’s where it all comes together. Yes, there is a lot of luck involved with winning the Stanley Cup. PDO, or the sum of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage, is the stat most frequently used to measure “puck luck” in hockey. A PDO greater than 100 is generally considered lucky, while a PDO less than 100 is generally considered unlucky. Take a look at the numbers for recent Stanley Cup champions, and compare them to the Stars this year:

Carolina got the puck luck they needed, but wasn’t too egregiously fortunate this postseason. The Stars, on the other hand, were just as lucky in the regular season (they ranked 1st in PDO this year) but catastrophically unlucky in the playoffs. Their previous four playoff performances weren’t too notable in this direction either.

This is why extending your contention window is so important: you never know how a playoff run is going to go. Just ask the Carolina Hurricanes, who had remarkably similar puck luck through this same stretch.

When we talk about luck, it’s hard not to bring up goaltending. I think that the hockey world still has a lot to learn about this position, because it has only grown more confusing to me the more I watch the sport. For instance, both Carolina and Vegas were led for most of the playoffs by goalies who were genuinely bad in the regular season. In the Final, both goalies imploded once again. Carolina comes out on top by swapping their starter for an undrafted rookie they claimed off of waivers this year. It’s a fantastic story for Brandon Bussi, but it leaves me stumped in terms of figuring out how a team like the Stars can take the luck out of goaltending.

In any case, luck is another thing that changes with time. Teams are lucky or unlucky until the regression hits. If it takes luck to win a Stanley Cup, then the Stars will need to continue putting themselves into a position to get lucky. That means that they need to find a way to control play in the postseason. It means that they need to support their superstars with genuinely impactful depth pieces. It means they need to remain contenders for as long as possible. And it means that they need to be patient in the face of disappointment. The Dallas Stars need to be more like the Carolina Hurricanes in that these are the things the Carolina Hurricanes did to set themselves up to win the Stanley Cup in 2026.

And if everything goes right, maybe we’ll be talking about what the rest of the league can learn from the Dallas Stars. Time, as I say all too frequently, will tell.

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Welcome back to Short-Handed with Zach Spanhak! It’s been a bit since my last piece, due largely to the fact that I was enjoying a fantastic European vacation with my fiancée. Because I am who I am, I was still keeping an eye on all things NHL from the other side of the Atlantic, and I’ve returned home itching to write about a handful of topics. As a result, I think it’s time for the return of “On the Kill,” my grab bag series in which we discuss everything and anything that might not have enough substance to be its own article. I think the last time we did one of these was all the way back in the wake of that now forgettable trade-deadline for the Stars. In any case, let’s dive right in.

Dallas Stars Announce Interest in Moving to Plano

This one has been brewing for some time. I don’t think that I’ve written that extensively before about the drama between the Stars and Mavericks over the American Airlines Center. While the competing lawsuits and question marks around renovations to the AAC would imply that the arena itself was central to both teams’ future plans, we’ve now seen reporting that both clubs are looking to move out of downtown Dallas.1

I’ll start with my initial, emotional reaction: I saw the Stars’ press release while flying back to Austin from JFK Airport and couldn’t believe what I was reading. The AAC is a big part of my fandom; for as long as I’ve been a Stars fan (and as long as I’ve been alive), the Dallas Stars have called the American Airlines Center home. Just about every Stars game I’ve attended, with one exception, has been at the American Airlines Center. It was there that I walked halfway across the stadium with my brother to get our first NHL pucks from a friendly equipment manager. It was there that I got to introduce all sorts of friends to Dallas Stars hockey. It was there that I fostered a deep hatred for the Vegas Golden Knights after watching them humiliate us on home-ice in Game Three of the 2023 Western Conference Final.2 There was always something special about the walk out of the arena through the city, whether it be after a win or a loss, journeying alongside your fellow fans amidst a chorus of “Woos!” or grumblings about how “the referees definitely threw that game for us.”

Suffice it to say, I’m heartbroken. Perhaps I’m simply too much of a romantic in this department. It’s not that the new arena will be any inherently less special; there will be plenty of great memories to be made there too, and countless future Stars fans who will grow up to call this new spot the home of Texas Hockey. But the AAC will always be my home, and I’ll spend the next few years enjoying hockey there while simultaneously mourning the impending move the to suburbs.

The reality is that, barring some sort of catastrophically disastrous decision making from Dallas’s front office, the move to Plano is likely one that is to the financial benefit of the Stars. It’s going to bring in a ton of new fans, which means new money; and in business, money is the sole voice that matters. I’ve certainly got my concerns: mainly the lack of public transportation options (at present) compared to getting to the AAC, plus the fact that the new location will make it more difficult for fans on the West side of the metroplex and beyond to attend games. We’ve got time to see how all this shakes out. After all, we only know that the Stars are interested in this move, and have zero details about what the arena and surrounding entertainment district will look like. Stars hockey will still be Stars hockey. It’s just going to be Stars hockey without the AAC, and that will take some time to get used to.

The Latest from the Robertson Rumor Mill

I half expected Jason Robertson to sign his extension while I was out of the country, because I’m told that’s how these things typically work out for us in hockey media.3 We’ve seen a variety of reporting on the Robertson situation, from Emily Kaplan’s reporting that the two sides are rather close to more bizarre trade speculation via Mill Manager Jeff Marek. One additional eyebrow-raising report was Frank Seravalli’s claim that Robertson’s camp wants an extension worth $14 million AAV. That’s quite the price tag, so I went ahead and did some back-of-the-napkin roster construction to see if Dallas could afford such a cap hit. You might not like the implications it brings:

Is Jason Robertson worth $14 million on the open market? I think so. Does that mean Dallas can afford to pay him $14 million a year? Probably not. It would require shipping out all of Ilya Lyubushkin, Sam Steel, Radek Faksa, AND Casey DeSmith, on top of requiring the Stars to keep Mavrik Bourque’s value at or below $2.8 million AAV. On top of all that, Dallas is left with a roster featuring no additional forwards or defensemen, and a measly $14,000 in cap space. That would not be a good situation.

It’s not like the roster itself is bad or anything. This is only a smidge worse than other “run it back” rosters we’ve discussed for this year, which I’ve argued should be a “run it back” type year while we await the salary-cap freedom that will be provided when Seguin’s contract expires next summer. The problem is that being so tight against the cap like this provides a ton of other risks. What will the Stars do when people inevitably get injured, and they’ve got no room to bring in players in relief? How much will it actually cost to move out that many players? Can they sign Mavrik Bourque at that number, or is this simply asking for an offer sheet? Signing Robertson at $14 million would cause some immense short-term struggle, even if the long-term benefits still exist.

For what it’s worth, I think that Kaplan’s reporting is probably the most accurate. I still believe strongly that Robertson and the Stars will come to an agreement, and I would be shocked to see it go any higher than $13 million AAV. But until the ink is actually on paper, the rumor mill will continue to churn. Only time will tell, which I suppose is becoming an early theme of this article.

An Early Look into the Nature of this Offseason

Look, there’s a reason why offseason rumors and speculation draw so much attention: it’s interesting. In some circumstances, it’s juicy even. Who doesn’t love drama between players and teams, especially when it’s happening to a different organization. There is a difference between the rumor mills and actual reporting though, and this story falls into the latter category by the nature of coming from the best in the business.

Elliotte Friedman broke the story yesterday that Dylan Larkin, the Captain of the Detroit Red Wings, has requested a trade. That’s an earthquake for a franchise that has spent the last few seasons knocking on the door of a playoff appearance after a decade without postseason hockey. Losing their best center like this will be catastrophic, especially if they’re unable to get someone back to replace him. The endless speculation has already begun, but for my money the Minnesota Wild feel like a realistic landing spot.4

I bring this all up not because I am a hypocrite who lambastes Robertson speculators while engaging in the same behavior so long as the player is not wearing Victory Green, but because this story is a prelude to how I expect this offseason to go. The 2026 free-agent class is exceptionally weak. It’s headlined by guys like Darren Raddysh, Alex Tuch, John Carlson, and Patrick Kane. Whose to say which of these players will even be available come July 1st. As a result, teams that want to make upgrades to their roster are going to be forced to either make trades or engage in the rarely used offer sheet. Dylan Larkin is now easily the best player available this summer for any team seeking an upgrade down the middle this summer (and perhaps the best player available, straight up). I imagine that he won’t be the only big name on the move given the market this offseason.

My Experience as a European NHL Fan for Two Weeks

I’ve got to tip my hat to any fans of NHL hockey that happen to reside in Europe. To be clear, I was not planning on watching any hockey whatsoever while on vacation. I was having a fantastic time experiencing walkable cities (a bold idea, I know) and eating some of the best food I’ve ever had in my life. Even if I had wanted to, trying to follow hockey while overseas was virtually impossible due simply to the time-zone differences. Games were starting at two or three in the morning after all.

The reason I felt like writing about this is because, given this information, I was blown away by the number of European NHL fans I’ve interacted with online over the last few years. I’m not sure how y’all do it, but I respect the hell out of it.

Miscellaneous Playoff Takes

Like I said, I wasn’t able to watch must hockey while abroad. Still, you can imagine my shock upon learning of the absolute dismantling of the Colorado Avalanche. Injuries certainly played a role, and the advanced stats would indicate they deserved a better fate, but I’m still flabbergasted by that series.

Carolina taking down Montreal in the Eastern Conference Final was far more predictable. As much as I’ve enjoyed this Canadiens team, they were on fraud watch all playoffs. The Canes exposed them, as good teams tend to be able to do, and we’re left with a Stanley Cup Final that feels extremely 2020s coded.

I’ve written about this before, but I consider the Carolina Hurricanes to be my second favorite team in the NHL. Vegas, on the other hand, is my least favorite club by far. I certainly have a rooting interest in this Final. I know that a lot of people are unhappy about this matchup, but if the first two games have shown us anything it’s that this is going to be an extremely entertaining series.

I do think that this is the year for Carolina to win it all. And yet, after watching the first two contests, I’m not certain that they’ll be able to get it done. While both contests were tight on the score board, I thought that Vegas was clearly the better team in game one. Carolina stepped it up in game two, though still required a late comeback to get the win. I’m excited for the rest of this series, but will be deeply disappointed if the VGK are the ones left standing at the end of it. They’re the villains of the NHL for good reason, and I’m tired of seeing the villains win.

Looking Ahead

The 2025-2026 NHL season is nearly over with, which means the dog days of the offseason are nearly upon us. There’s still a lot to be excited about though: the NHL Draft is quickly approaching, and then it’ll be free-agency time before we know it. In the meantime, Dallas could work out extensions with Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque at any moment. They’ll more than likely need to make some trades to do so, which should mean we’ll have some news to talk about.

In the meantime, my goal is to keep writing when I feel like I’ve got something worthwhile to say. Free agency, contract projections, and contract value are some of my favorite topics in hockey, so I imagine we’ll dive into those subjects more than once this offseason even if they aren’t particularly relevant to Dallas’s offseason. If you’ve got any topics you want me to cover, feel free to let me know in the comments!

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I want to take this opportunity to thank each and every one of you who read these articles. We just hit 100 subscribers here on Substack, which is pretty awesome to say. I’m honored that so many of you care to read what I write, and I hope that I continue to provide you with the quality you’ve come to expect.

Last but certainly not least, I would not be able to publish this article without including a happy birthday message to my mom. She’s supported me in every endeavor I’ve ever pursued, and that makes me a pretty lucky son. Happy birthday, mom!

Understanding NHL contracts gives you quite the advantage in the offseason, as you become more insulated from the endless (and often egregious) trade proposals and the equally bizarre claims about who teams should and shouldn’t sign or let go over the summer. Luckily enough, we live in an age where people have the time and expertise to analyze more data than you could ever imagine, all in an attempt to better inform others about the hockey landscape. Today, one of my favorite groups in the NHL Capology Space released one of my favorite resources for understanding the offseason.1 I’m talking, of course, about AFP Analytics and their Offseason Projections. This is a free resource that gives us a glimpse into the world of the behind-the-scenes negotiations between players’ agent and General Managers, allowing us to better understand what to expect this summer with regard to free agency and the salary cap.

Today, I wanted to take a look at these projections and see how they help us understand the biggest storyline in Dallas this summer. I’ll be using the data to sort through anything and everything, from Jason Robertson to RFAs in Cedar Park, throwing in my two cents along the way. Once again, thank you to AFP Analytics for compiling this incredible resource for us hockey fans to use! Be sure to check their website and the projections for yourself (linked above), and to follow them on Twitter to stay in the loop about all of their other projects.

Jason Robertson’s Next Contract

There’s no doubt that this is the number-one topic of the offseason in Dallas this year, just as it was last year. I’ve said my piece about why the Stars should look to keep Jason Robertson (multiple times, in fact), so I won’t be relitigating it today.2 Today is all about looking at the numbers AFP Analytics has calculated, and determining whether it’s something that could work for the Dallas Stars. As it turns out, I was very pleasantly surprised with what they came up with: they’re projecting Jason Robertson to sign an 8-year, $11.9m AAV deal with the Stars this summer (we’ll get to the short-term scenario later).

That would be a hair lower than what I’ve been pricing in, which is around $12.5m AAV. Realistically, the Stars could find a way to keep him at as high as $13m AAV. Anything lower than $12m would be a steal. Considering that this $11.9m AAV projection is supposed to represent market value, it’s possible that the Stars could leverage tax advantages to push that number a bit lower. Time will tell what number Robertson’s camp and Jim Nill ultimately align on, but this is good news for those of us who want to see Robertson stay in Dallas for the long term.

I will touch briefly on the other projection you’ll see for Jason Robertson, which is a one-year deal for about $9.6m. This represents a scenario in which the Stars can’t afford the number that Robertson’s camp wants, and so the two have to settle on a qualifying offer or arbitration case. While I’d love to envision a scenario in which Robertson brings his number down this year in order to accommodate Dallas’s cap issues with a sort of back-room deal in place that Robertson will get to cash in next year, I’d probably agree with the assessment from the Algorithmically Incorrect Hockey podcast that this could be viewed as cap circumvention. On top of that, it would be rather shocking in this scenario to see Robertson NOT go to market in 2027, knowing that there will be plenty of teams willing to sign him to a Kaprizov-level deal.

Dallas’s best bet for keeping Jason Robertson is on a long-term deal in which he’s being paid his fair market value. Yes, it will cause some headaches this year, but beyond that? So long as Robertson continues to perform at the level we’ve become accustomed to, then the rising cap will make this contract age like fine wine. And as a bonus, you’ll get to feel quite smart for not succumbing to the endless churn of the Robertson Rumor Mill industrial complex.

Mavrik Bourque: The Secret Salary-Cap Nightmare I Warned You About

Mavrik Bourque’s development at the NHL level has been less explosive than many of us hoped after seeing his rapid success in the AHL. With that being said, let’s not mince words about what Bourque did this season. Twenty goals is nothing to be ashamed of, especially considering that Bourque is one of the few talents in the bottom six that routinely displayed high-level offensive instincts. His work along the boards stood out to me all year, and he managed to step-up well when tasked with top-six minutes due to injuries. This is all to say that Bourque projects to be a key X-Factor for the Stars in the immediate future, as a player who can provide value up and down the lineup and is likely to have room to grow over the next few seasons.

The problem is that Dallas is going to have a somewhat tough time affording him. We thought this would be the case last year, but Bourque ended up signing a one-year “prove it” deal of sorts worth just $950,000. Sure, it helped manage the cap then, but it also set us up for a potentially challenging Summer of 2026 right now. Mavrik Bourque showed the growth that we wanted to see, and now needs a new contract in line with his improved on-ice value at a time where Dallas is strapped for cash. This is exactly what I worried about heading into the 2025-2026 season.

AFP Analytics projects Bourque’s market-value to be around $2.9m AAV on a two-year bridge deal. Can Dallas afford that? Yes. Will it be difficult to make the room? Also yes. Should they make the room? Also also yes. The biggest concern here is that other teams leverage the oft-unused offer sheet against the Stars at a number which Dallas cannot match. The best path forward here is for Dallas to get Bourque (and Robertson) signed ASAP. The longer they wait, the greater the pressure grows.

An Aside: The Importance of Contracting Strategically

One thing that frustrates me with Dallas’s cap situation is that Jim Nill can’t seem to keep himself from making things a bit more difficult than they need to be. A lot of it comes down to what I’m calling “Contracting Strategically,” which I use to refer to the ability of a GM to align contracts on their team with their long-term salary-cap situation in mind. One of the best ways you can do this is through lining up the lengths of these deals to either a) get through tighter cap squeezes on lower AAV contracts or b) to have older, larger contracts come off the books at the same time that new, expensive contracts need to be signed.

One case study on this was the Thomas Harley bridge deal from a few years ago ($4m x 2 years). This was great value at a time when the Stars needed room to breathe, but the timing was rather bizarre in context. It aligned Harley’s next contract to be due at the same time of Jason Robertson’s contract, and was also announced on the same day as Esa Lindell’s $5.25m contract extension through the 2029-2030 season. It is true that Esa Lindell is a big piece for this team and that, at the time of signing, Jim Nill did not know he was going to acquire Mikko Rantanen for $12m AAV until 2033, but it’s still fair to ask why Nill wouldn’t have rather lengthened the bridge deal by a year or even just committed to a larger, long-term deal for Harley. Keep in mind, that this was still the offseason ahead of Harley’s breakout campaign in 2024-2025, meaning Nill may been able to get Harley at a cheaper value than the eventual $10.59m AAV contract signed this year.

It would’ve been great to see Bourque sign a two-year deal last summer that would’ve helped ride out the cap crunch Dallas is experiencing. Instead, that money was used to bring in Radek Faksa for the next three years, a player we’re now talking about Dallas potentially needing to trade in order to make everything work this summer. This is the other aspect of contracting strategically: the ability to squeeze value of out of your depth through the contracts you sign. Your term and cash should be prioritized for the core as much as possible, and signing guys like Matt Dumba, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Sam Steel to multi-year deals has caused self-imposed headaches for Nill and the organization. The cap-hit percentage isn’t all that can make or break a contract’s value; it’s also about how that contract is going to interact with the rest of your team, both at present and in the future.

Lost in all this is the reality of negotiations and the leverage players have. Yes, it would be great (for the Dallas Stars) if the Dallas Stars could sign whoever they wanted to whatever deal they wanted, but that’s not how these things work (nor how they should work). At the same time, there’s still going to be room for management to improve, especially when we see a pattern of questionable free-agent signings or poor contract timing. The theoretical will always be more perfect than reality, but that shouldn’t stop us from being critical when things don’t work out.

Other Notes: An Early “Who Stays?” and “Who Goes?”

In a year where Dallas’s cap situation will largely force them to “run it back,” it’s important to ask who Dallas will actually be able to keep and who is likely on their way out.

The most obvious member of either of these lists is Michael Bunting, a piece I’d argue was criminally underused by Glen Gulutzan. He’s projected to sign a decently high deal in free agency ($5.8m AAV x 4 years) and I don’t see a world where he stays with the Stars.

The other depth piece that may be priced out is a somewhat surprising name: Alex Petrovic. AFP Analytics projects him to sign a two-year deal worth $1.3m AAV. That is not going to be a number that the Stars can afford, especially for a 7th defenseman. Barring a hometown discount, Petro may have earned himself a job elsewhere as a bottom-pairing blue liner.

Everyone else worth mentioning (in this section) is projected to sign a league minimum deal worth $850,000 for one year. This includes Arttu Hyry, Adam Erne, Kyle Capobianco, and Nathan Bastian. Out of this list, I expect Dallas to keep Hyry (especially if they do end up jettisoning Faksa) and consider retaining Capobianco as a 7th defenseman, though the organization may have some higher upside on Vladislav Kolyachonok.

It’s worth mentioning that there are a ton of RFAs down in Cedar Park, including the aforementioned Kolyachonok, which I’ve tiered here based on importance (as judge by my own views and the views of my Texas Stars season-ticket holding father):

Must Keeps: Matthew Seminoff, Luke Krys, Vladislav Kolyachonok

Likely Keeping: Harrison Scott, Kole Lind (UFA)

Injured and Hard to Judge: Chase Wheatcroft, Samu Tuomaala, Jereme Poirier

May Be Done: Kyle McDonald, Francesco Arcuri

Time Coming to a Close?: Antonio Stranges, Ben Kraws

Now in fairness, Dallas typically keeps a lot of their AHL-level RFAs around since they can bury the contracts in the minors without penalty. Don’t be shocked if you see a ton of depth signings this summer!

The Jamie Benn Discourse

We’re at that point in Benn’s career where each offseason will come with constant discourse and murmuring around what value he adds to the team and whether his time in Dallas (and/or in the NHL) is done. Here’s where I stand on this:

• While it’s fun to discuss, the Captaincy/leadership discussion is something the organization as a whole has to figure out. At the end of the day, only the people in and around the locker room (the players, coaches, and management to an extent) will know the full extent of what Benn brings and means to the room and, perhaps more importantly, how the room would react to a changing of the guard (be it a stripping of the captaincy or forced retirement) or whether a changing of the guard even needs to happen.

• When it comes to Benn the player, I’d argue you’re not going to get much better value than what Benn has to offer in the bottom-six. He’s projected to be worth about $1.3m at market, meaning anything less would be a crucial home-town discount for the Stars. Both his production and processes were fairly serviceable for a guy who would more than likely slot in as a fourth liner. If Benn wants to play another year, and is willing to take a deal at or around league minimum then I think you have to sign him in a heartbeat. It will also make for a more natural end to the Benneguin era, as he’ll come off the books at the same time as Tyler Seguin at the end of the 2026-2027 season. It also adds some romantic storytelling to a “run it back” year, as the team can rally around the fact that this is likely the last chance for Benn to try and win the Stanley Cup.

Conclusion: Bringing It All Together

Taking everything into account, here’s my latest project for Dallas’s offseason. This gives them a 12F, 7D roster with just under $670,000 in cap space. Shout out to PuckPedia’s PuckGM feature, which you can expect to see a lot of this offseason.

This projection leaves room for Benn to sign a slightly more expensive contract if he or the Stars think league-minimum is too low. I had to ship off all of Lyubushkin, Faksa, and Steel to make this work. It is possible to keep one of Steel or Faksa if you run a 12F, 6D roster. I would prefer they keep Sam Steel, but think the organization is more likely to retain Faksa given that they signed him to a three-year deal (despite having multiple Radek Faksa’s at home) last summer.3

This roster isn’t going to alleviate much of the panic that comes with a first-round exit, but it’s more than serviceable. If you thought the Stars were a contender this year, than you’d be lying to yourself if you think that they wouldn’t also be a contender in 20262-2027 by simply running it back. I’ve already written about how this is not the year for Dallas to blow everything up. This core is extremely good, and still has room to grow. This offseason is about survival, and with the data from AFP Analytics, we now have a game plan for how the Stars can proceed. The biggest test of the Jim Nill era is here; have patience Stars fans, because it’ll take quite some time before we see the results.

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Throughout this offseason, my goal is to give my two cents on what I think the Stars need to do, can do, and will do in order to achieve their goal of winning the Stanley Cup. You’ll notice that those are three distinct categories of actions. I’ve decided to get the conversations started today with a fairly informal, yet somewhat conclusive overview of what happened this season and where I think the Stars are headed next. I covered each and every game Dallas played this year. What did I notice? What problems or patterns can we identify with this roster? Can those problems be rectified with such a tight salary cap in place? Is Jim Nill willing to do what it takes to create a Stanley-Cup winning roster? Or has he already done everything he can?

We’ll be breaking down these questions and more all summer, but it starts with this article today. The dust has settled; what comes next? Expect to be surprised and frustrated by the answer I’ve got for you.

Where It Went Wrong

A Critical Look at Glen Gulutzan’s System

The number-one story coming out of the Stars-Wild series was Dallas’s inability to score 5-on-5. I’m on the record having said that part of the problem may have been pure dumb luck (or a Minnesota netminder playing out of his mind), given that Dallas’s chance generation was on par with the Wild all series.

Loyal readers and staunch number crunchers will know that Dallas’s even-strength play was actually a question mark all year. Ironically though, their problems in the regular season were wildly different from their problems in the playoffs. In the regular season, they were a team that struggled at times to control play, being frequently outshot at even strength. Yet, they consistently produced high-danger opportunities while also giving up very little in their own end, allowing them to even things out in the shot-quality metric. They were also boosted by some elite finishing capabilities and some solid goaltending (albeit more so from Casey DeSmith, their backup, than from Jake Oettinger, their starter).

Before we proceed, keep in mind that we’re dealing with a much more limited sample of data in the playoffs (6 games vs 82 regular-season games), which can make things noisy. With that being said, what happened in game 83 and beyond? The Stars were actually a good possession team and continued to win the shot-quality battle, but cratered in terms of finishing. Their goaltending also struggled, though Jake Oettinger’s numbers were dragged down by a really rough Game One.

It’s interesting to see this visualized. Compare the regular season 5v5 offense and finishing maps (all situations) to those of the playoffs (again, remember we’re dealing with a much smaller sample size here).1

For kicks, here’s how their 5-on-5 defense looked in the regular season and playoffs:

If you’re confused by what’s happening on the right, I simply rotated the map of Minnesota’s 5-on-5 offense in order to line the two visuals up a bit better.2 The black hole in front of the net persisted into the playoffs.

To me, what all this means is that the defensive aspects of Gulutzan’s system held up their end of the bargain and give the Stars something to work with going forward. The offensive side of things needs some work still. It was good to see the Stars really get to work on their cycle throughout the series, but their inability to cash in winds up being their downfall. I still think that luck plays a part in it, but I also wonder if there aren’t adjustments Dallas could’ve made throughout the series to add a finishing touch. And I don’t just mean that in a “they should’ve played Bunting earlier” sense. How often did we see Wallstedt give up a big rebound in Game Six that nobody was there to capitalize on? While I’m inclined to wonder if Dallas could have diversified the way they produced scoring chances, the data implies that Minnesota wasn’t must better in that regard. Maybe it is all just puck luck.

I’d imagine that improving the rush would be the most immediate solution to improving the 5-on-5 offense. Given Dallas’s obvious struggles with retrieving the puck and breaking out of their own zone in both the regular season and playoffs, perhaps an improvement to their breakout strategy (or personnel?) could elevate Dallas’s game in this regard. In his media availability, Gulutzan actually indicated that their neutral-zone play (breakouts) is one area that the team is looking to improve upon next season. It’s worth noting that the the coaching staff has balanced things out a bit by turning the power play into an absolute monster, but we saw this year that special teams was not enough to carry the Stars in the playoffs.

So ultimately, yes, the Stars did end up having an even-strength problem, just like they did all year, except it was a different problem entirely from the one they dealt with all year. They went from a quality over quantity team that finished on every chance they got to a team producing both quality and quantity that couldn’t score to save their lives. This leaves us with an outlook on the Gulutzan system that is perhaps more frustrating than it has been all season: Dallas has a good foundation to work with, but couldn’t put it all together when it mattered most.

Relevant Factors: Injuries

I know, I know. Everyone is injured in the playoffs. Everyone had to deal with the compressed schedule. Everyone had players at the Olympics. How can injuries be an excuse?

There’s a lot of places my mind goes to with that rhetorical question, but let’s start with this: I think that it’s perfectly acceptable to use injuries as an explanation for a series loss without disregarding all other factors that played into that loss. With locker-cleanout day underway, we’ve learned a bit more about some of the injuries players were dealing with in the playoffs, including:

• Bastian: Broken hand from a blocked shot in Game 73 (@ Pittsburgh)

• Heiskanen: Oblique tear sustained in Game 79 (vs Minnesota)

• Hintz: Tore hamstring in two different spots beginning in Game 62 (vs Avalanche). Was on pace to return for Game 2 or Game 3 of the first round before suffering a setback.

• Lundkvist: Said that his cut sustained in Game 4 “looked worse than it is,” though admitted it was a deep cut. I wonder if there were concussion concerns that may have kept him out of action.

• Seguin: Had surgery for a torn ACL sustained in Game 27 (at Rangers) and is on pace to return for training camp next season.

There’s one notable absence from that list. That would be Mikko Rantanen, who didn’t quite look the same since his return from an Olympic injury. Despite never taking over a game in the playoffs like we expected him to, he was still above a point per game in the postseason. Both Rantanen and Gulutzan indicated that he was technically healthy for the playoffs, but qualified the statement by saying something about how he was not really able to get back up to speed. My guess is that Rantanen was never quite 100% after the Olympics, even if he was medically “healthy” for all intents and purposes.

So can we blame the Olympics on Dallas’s lack of success this postseason? Honestly, I’m not sure that you can. On one hand, it might be fair to assume that more players at the Olympics could negatively impact a club’s performance down the stretch because guys are more likely to get injured or are simply quicker to run out of juice due to the extra games being played. On the other hand, a greater number of players on the Olympics might actually predict playoff success, since that would imply that a given team is simply more talented than other teams. This may just be another instance of bad luck for the Dallas Stars.

In any case, while we aren’t able to definitively prove that the condensed schedule or Olympic participation contributed to Dallas’s loss specifically, it is fair to say that some of Dallas’s best players were either injured or unavailable in the postseason, and that that could have had an impact on how things went. I think that the losses of Hintz, Seguin, and Lundkvist hurt more than we realize. The first two revealed the issues with Dallas’s depth, specifically that much of their depth was made up of forwards who excel in roles that don’t necessarily ask them to pack a scoring punch. Think about what guys like Radek Faksa, Oskar Bäck, Adam Erne, Nathan Bastian, and even Arttu Hyry, Sam Steel, and Colin Blackwell bring to this team. You can make an argument that those latter three have offensive upside, but most of their bottom-six was built on the backs of being defensive forwards, penalty killers, and/or “physical” guys, with little other dimension to their game. It shouldn’t be surprising that the only “bottom six” player to get a goal in the playoffs was Mavrik Bourque. None registered more than one point this postseason.

As for Nils Lundkvist, his loss ended up exposing an age-old problem for these Dallas Stars: their lack of puck-moving defensemen. Lundkvist has really emerged in this role this year, and his work in the first round was extremely impactful. Given this information, is it really all that shocking that Dallas has struggled to exit their zone and produce off of the rush this season? Jim Nill has routinely failed to address this problem, though sniping an extremely cheap Lundkvist extension right before the playoffs was a brilliant move given the cap crunch the Stars are in. Even if it doesn’t totally solve Dallas’s issues on the blue line, that deal is going to age like fine wine until salary-cap relief arrive in the summer of 2027.

This is all to say that Dallas’s injuries certainly played a role in their early exit. The loss of key players and reduction in the capabilities of others can be seen in the data and results. Most importantly, the injuries exposed that the organization’s depth may be its greatest flaw. There’s nuance to this, so bear with me here.

For years, the Stars have been blessed with an abundance of resources, with a seemingly endless array of players working their way up through the organization. Be it good drafting or solid amateur scouting or a combination of the two, we’ve been fortunate enough to see the arrival of the Wyatt Johnstons, Mavrik Bourques, and Justin Hyrckowians of the world. Before that it was Jason Robertson, Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz, Jake Oettinger, and of course Miro Heiskanen. But now, in a world where Dallas is a routine contender, their resources have thinned out. Sometimes it’s draft picks, but other times its genuine marquee players à la Logan Stankoven that are spent to go all in on superstars like Mikko Rantanen and… Cody Ceci.3 Combine this with a tight salary cap and a few perplexing decisions by management, and we’re left with a depth that is akin to the Platte River: a mile wide, but an inch deep.

I’ve got more to say about this in the next section, but I think that Dallas’s salary-cap situation puts them in a bit of a pickle. Their best guys are (most likely) here to stay, and there isn’t a lot of money left to go around to the supporting cast that the Stars need in order to get this roster over the hump. While the lack of money will restrict the Stars in terms of the depth talent that they’re able to put on this roster, it’s also a matter of management maximizing the value they’re getting out of these pieces. Jim Nill is a good General Manager, no doubt, but he’s had a less than perfect record when it comes to maximizing the value of his depth free-agency signings. That’s something that needs to change if the Stars want to win a Stanley Cup next season. I don’t know that they have the budget to make that change happen.

Expectations and The Path Forward:

It’s way too early to start predicting the next few years of Dallas Stars hockey.4 After all, there is still a pretty big offseason ahead for the Stars in which they’ll be looking to retain key players and improve the team, all while trying to manage the salary cap crunch they’re experiencing.

A first-round exit after three straight Western Conference Finals feels like a step back. In some respects it is. But given the reality of the situation: having to play a very good club in the Minnesota Wild, sustaining various key injuries, and being in the first year of a new coach, this isn’t too brutal of a loss. When you consider the fact that Dallas has played the most hockey out of anyone over the last few years besides the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers, and that the Stars would’ve had to get through a seemingly unstoppable force in the Colorado Avalanche, perhaps an early exit this year isn’t the worst thing in the world. It sounds like pure unadulterated cope, but I also wonder if Dallas’s outlook should be measured in seasons rather than games.

Consider this: in 2023, the Dallas Stars pushed their way to the Western Conference Final in the first year of Pete DeBoer, marking the emergence of this new core lead by Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, and Jake Oettinger. They made their second Western Conference Final in 2024, with guys like Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley showing that they’re here to stay. In their third year of Pete DeBoer, Jim Nill did something he hasn’t done in a long time (maybe ever?): he went all in. Whether it was a combination of believing that their time was now, the availability of a franchise-altering superstar in Mikko Rantanen, or the flexibility that injuries to Heiskanen and others gave Nill, he pushed all his chips in to change the trajectory of the Dallas Stars for good. But the Stars lost in the Conference Final again, leaving us where we are today.

Dallas’s championship window is open, but they’ve got to work their way through some messy times first. I told you that the Stars shouldn’t go all in this year, and they didn’t. I’m here to tell you that they shouldn’t be going all in next year either. 2025-2026 and 2026-2027 are years that will set the stage for Dallas’s future. It’s going to require patience and trust in the plan, but I think that the year for the Dallas Stars to win it all is 2027-2028. They really have till 2030 before this core starts to get naturally blown up by the ending of contracts and free agency.

It really all comes down to the salary cap. Once Seguin’s contract comes off the books next summer, the Stars will be working with a ton of money to finally bring in the assistance their core needs. If you believe in this core, and I do, then you have to give them at least the 2027-2028 season to show what they are capable of. Anything that happens next year is simply a cherry on top.

I’ve already gone ahead and put together a very rudimentary offseason checklist, which includes the following:

• Sign Jason Robertson long term

• Sign Mavrik Bourque to a bridge deal

• Trade Lyubushkin and Faksa/Steel to make the money work

I’d consider these the “must dos” for the Stars this summer, though I suppose you could try and trade one of either Robertson or Bourque for assets. It wouldn’t fit into our “Cup in 2028” plan though. Here’s what this roster would look like; it has about $164K in cap space remaining:

I decided to deal Steel in this version rather than Faksa, as I think that Steel might be able to actually bring assets back to the Stars and because it saves an addition $100,000. On top of that, I don’t see Jim Nill ditching Faksa after signing him to a three year deal last summer, even if they have a cheaper alternative in Arttu Hyry waiting in the wings.5 I know that some fans want Myers gone, but he’s a cheap option that can be serviceable as long as he’s deployed correctly (read as: outside of the top four).

Some other moves Dallas could make in order to free up cap space include:

• Have Jamie Benn retire

• Trade Casey DeSmith to recoup assets and bring up Remi Poirier

• Trade both of Faksa and Steel

I don’t have too strong of an opinion on the Jamie Benn situation. I think that his time with the organization and the NHL is coming to an end here soon, but his value in the regular season is still serviceable especially if he’s playing on a league-minimum deal. Getting him some sort of discipline or anger-management training would be good though. Also, don’t put him out on your do or die six-on-five next time, Gully.

I got some pushback for saying that the Stars should consider trading Casey DeSmith. Outside of moving your big name players, there’s not many other pieces that could genuinely bring in assets to the organization. Think about all of the teams that were or are in need of goaltending this season.6 Now consider how DeSmith has done as a backup and his very affordable contract (just $1m AAV!). His trade value has literally never been higher, and Dallas has a cheaper guy down in the AHL who looks ready to take that next step. DeSmith will never be more than a backup in Dallas, regardless of how his numbers look, so why not use him as trade bait AND save some money doing it?

Any moves beyond that are going to be ones to really shake up the core. The only core pieces that can be easily moved are Jason Robertson, Thomas Harley, Wyatt Johnston, and Jake Oettinger (before July 1st). Thomas Harley has been the one I’ve seen the most conversation around, though I think the Stars would be jumping the gun on him pretty early in the universe where they trade him after a single down year. You have to bring in someone to replace those minutes; who do you expect to acquire that brings the same or better value while also saving Dallas money now and in the long term? I don’t think the Stars plan on doing this, especially not with Jim Nill at the helm.

Taking all of this into account, here’s my take on the state of the organization following the 2025-2026 Season. The Stars were a good team all year in spite of injuries, but were marked by a somewhat perplexing and elusive identity in which their power play, team defense, and finishing capabilities seemed to mask their struggles at even strength. In the playoffs, they lost to a very good Minnesota Wild team thanks in part to a collapse in 5-on-5 finishing amidst a genuinely positive shift in their even-strength processes. Key injuries almost certainly played a role there too, exposing the one-dimensionality of their depth. Given the cap constraints they’ll be facing this season, it’s hard to imagine that depth getting significantly better. Relief is on the horizon in 2027-2028. This means that if you believe in this core’s ability to win a Stanley Cup, which I do, the path forward for the Dallas Stars is to use the 2026-2027 year as a sort of stopgap in which they keep the band together and see what happens, setting them up for a 2027-2028 season in which they can bring in the supporting cast that this core needs to push for the Stanley Cup.

Don’t buy it? Did you forget that Jim Nill’s new contract extension runs through the end of the 2027-2028 season? The plan is already in motion, Stars fans. It’s time to see whether we, and the organization as a whole, have the patience to see it through completion.

The Game, Simplified: Not Enough

All series, it’s felt like the Stars have been playing a step behind the Wild. Playing reactively rather than proactively, if you will. There’s room to talk about this as a feature rather than a bug for the Stars over their recent stretch of postseason success. We’ll get to those conversations in due time; we’ve got plenty of offseason to talk about it after all.

Tonight’s game was no different. The Stars looked timid in the first period, and they were extremely fortunate to only be down a single goal after twenty minutes. Special teams gave them some life in that second period, and then the 5-on-5 curse was finally broken with this effort from Mavrik Bourque.

I’ll get on my first of many soapboxes here: why in the hell was Bunting left out of the lineup until tonight? He drew the call that the power play scored on. He also creates this opportunity that Bourque cashes in on. It’s inexcusable that he wasn’t inserted sooner in a series marked by Dallas’s inability to tally goals at even strength.

I will be talking about PDO and puck luck and finishing and goaltending and all the things that help explain why Dallas was unable to turn scoring chances into the numbers that matter. For now, we’re left to reflect on this. Could the Stars hang 5-on-5? Yes, but they couldn’t score. And that’s the stat that matters in the end.

Soapbox 2: Decision Making

I feel like I’ve been quite patient with Glen Gulutzan all season. I’ve been critical of aspects of Dallas’s game, namely their inability to control play at 5-on-5. Funnily enough, they were generally pretty good in that respect this series, but weren’t able to cash in. This series, I found myself questioning a handful of his decisions to the very end. We’ve already discussed not inserting Michael Bunting into the lineup until it was too late, but how about putting Jamie Benn out on the 6-on-5 after the game Mavrik Bourque had tonight?

Gulutzan did hit the line blender a few times tonight, and it seemed to be producing something serviceable. He put together the “supernova” group of Robertson-Johnston-Rantanen, and brought back in the Unction (Steel-Duchene-Benn) and the QueBäck line (Bäck-Bourque-Hyrckowian). My question here is: why did it take until the second period of an elimination game to try this out?

Adaptation is critical in the playoffs. It was disappointing to see Gulutzan struggle in that regard this series, but I also get that he’s a newish coach in the grand scheme of things. Not that it makes the loss any better.

Soapbox 3: Finishing, Goaltending, and Puck Luck

Dallas ends the playoffs with the worst 5-on-5 shooting percentage. It’s going to wind up somewhere below 3% when all the numbers are tallied up, and it’s what ultimately ended Dallas’s playoff hopes.

This is freakishly below their average shooting percentage this season, as well as being below the league average. The Stars were probably going to regress at some point, but you need time for regression to hit. You don’t have time in the playoffs. There’s a similar story when it comes to PDO (which is just shooting percentage + save percentage).1 Am I saying that Dallas’s problems 5-on-5 were entirely luck? Definitely not, but it’s part of the story. Minnesota, for the record, was first in PDO and sixth in shooting percentage. It’s fitting that this was the series clinching goal.

Now, don’t take this to mean that Minnesota won off the back of luck and nothing more. This was an extremely talented Wild team. I told you as much in the series preview. They took it to the Stars on every giveaway and failed zone exit. I’d like to go back and count up just how many of Minnesota’s goals came after Dallas coughed up the puck while trying to force it up the boards.2

Give flowers to Jesper Wallstedt as well, who had an incredible performance all series. I don’t know that the Stars tested him nearly enough, but he gave the Wild exactly what they needed and then some. Funnily enough, I thought that this was one of his weaker performances of the series, as he was giving up frequent and monstrous rebounds. Not that Dallas had anyone in position to capitalize on them.

Injuries are also a part of luck, I’d say. We’ll find out more in the coming days about what guys were battling this postseason. Roope Hintz being out certainly exposed some of Dallas’s depth issues up front. The Stars also lost Nils Lundkvist in the middle of the round and disaster followed suit; who knew he’d be a critical piece to this team in the postseason? Arttu Hyry was out tonight on injury too. Mikko Rantanen took some damage tonight, and I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that he’s still dealing with whatever happened to him at the Olympics. Lian Bichsel was also sent down the tunnel late in the game.

And of course, it’s worth noting that Dallas had a very similar problem last year against the Edmonton Oilers in terms of scoring goals. It’s hard to win when in the playoffs when scoring dries up.

So it it luck? Minnesota’s ability to capitalize on mistakes whereas Dallas did not? Goaltending giving them the edge? Untimely injuries. Something else entirely? It’s probably a bit of everything, but in the end, it meant Dallas’s season was done.

Miscellaneous Observations

• It was fitting to see Dallas’s power play keep them in this game. Who else but Wyatt Johnston on the triangle play? It’s a bit bittersweet to consider how dominant this team could’ve been if the 5-on-5 scoring had been there. This power play was something special.

  

• Regardless of what some people will say, I thought that Jake Oettinger was largely good this playoffs. He was outclasses by Jesper Wallstedt, but the main problem for Dallas was the lack of goal scoring, not their goaltending.

• If there is any positive from this postseason, it’s that the Jason Robertson playoff narrative is dead in the water. He scored in five of six games this series, and was Dallas’s best player in my opinion. That won’t stop the Robo-rumor mill from coming back like it never left. He could’ve at least had the decency to wait until the playoffs ended to get this thing going again. I’ve talked about Jason Robertson’s situation a ton before, and I’m sure we’ll do it all over again this summer, especially if this exclamation point of a playoffs drives the number even higher than his regular season did. The cap crunch is here, and it’s going to be an absolute nightmare to get through.

• Speaking of the cap crunch, Mavrik Bourque being one of Dallas’s best players tonight will further add to the discourse and headaches. I’ve talked before about how he’s one of their most at-risk pieces this summer. He had a good season, and looks like there will be a place for him somewhere in the middle six going forward, if Dallas can afford to keep him. I thought that his playoffs were good even if he didn’t get the points his play probably deserved. That’s been the story for him all year though.

• It was good to see Petrovic come in for Tyler Myers tonight after the latter had a very rough game five. I don’t know that it made much of a difference, all things considered. Harley-Heiskanen was the real story for the defense tonight. It did seem to help drive some offense at least. They put together some really good shifts with the supernova line, though Dallas could not capitalize on them.

• The penalty kill did their job again this evening, including a handful of semi-dangerous looks short handed. Oskar Bäck nearly walked Quinn Hughes for the greatest goal of his life, settling for a drawn penalty to even things up. While I liked this aspect of the PK, I did not enjoy seeing the Stars take more unnecessary penalties tonight. Mikko Rantanen’s emotional cross check to Kaprizov was particularly egregious, especially while the game was still Dallas’s for the taking.

• Credit to some of Minnesota’s best players: Quinn Hughes, Kirill Kaprivoz, and Matt Boldy looked good again tonight as they have all series. Boldy in particular is having a breakout playoffs, and could be in contention for the Conn Smythe if the Wild go deep. The Wild earned this win, as much as it pains me to say it.

Checking the Stats: Michael Bunting: Wasted Talent

I know that I already soapboxed about this, but it’s quite a shame that Jim Nill’s trade deadline is going to look worse than it probably was a result of the failure to deploy Bunting. Myers was always a slight overpay, but he’s also not supposed to see as much ice time as injury forced him too. His low cost and term will make him a serviceable Lyubushkin replacement next year (the Stars almost certainly need to trade him for salary-cap purposes). Bunting was the real sneaky-valuable add for the Stars this year, and he got one game to showcase that. It turns a third-round pick that was well spent into a total throw-away decision. I’m curious how Nill feels about this choice from Gulutzan, not that we’ll get any answers on that front.

BONUS: Series Stats Recap

Jason Robertson. Matt Duchene. Nils Lundkvist. If those were the players you said would be the best playoff performers for the Stars this year, then you’re an absolute legend. I think we were overdue an end to the narrative about Robertson, but Duchene fighting off the playoff demons was a genuine revelation. Nils Lundkvist continued to do what he’s done all year, and very likely dragged Harley up to a positive impact score as well.

In the end, what stands out to me is that Dallas’s best players were their best players. Check the list: Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen are joined by Mavrik Bourque, who asserted himself this year as a reliable piece in the top-six. Miro Heiskanen was a bit all over the place, but still one of the top defensemen. Dallas’s depth disappeared, though this may have been inevitable follow Hintz’s injury. There were fewer elite pieces to sprinkle throughout the lineup, resulting in the bottom-six being exposed for what they largely were: a lot of AHLers, fourth liners, and penalty killers. I’m not saying that to be dismissive of what they bring to the team nor to put them down, nor even to blame the playoff loss on them. It’s just the reality of what this team was, and you can bet it played a role in a series where Dallas’s scoring ran out.

Looking Ahead

It’s been quite a season. For one, I’ll always remember the 2025-2026 Stars as the year I really dipped my toes into hockey writing. I may have started this journey last playoffs, but I took it on full time this year and had a blast. It’s hard to say what the future holds for this place as I’m hitting a pretty big transition point in my life, but I’d love to keep up the writing as much as I can. It’s been a very fun way to approach my hockey fandom to say the least.

Thank you to everyone who has followed along this year until the very end. Your support means more than you know. I plan on continuing to deliver content over the summer, as we’ve now got plenty of time to do a full post mortem on the season, dispel more trade rumors, play some Armchair GM, and a whole lot more. Until then, thank you once again for reading what I had to say about these Dallas Stars.

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Things have officially gone from bad to worse for the Dallas Stars. Entering tonight with a chance to take a commanding 3-2 series lead on home ice, they were instead bested by the Minnesota Wild and now have to claw their way back in St. Paul on Thursday. The same demons that have haunted them all series were present, namely a lack of 5v5 scoring no matter how hard they tried.1 On top of that, their special-teams dominance was not present in this one. That’s a recipe for disaster in Dallas, and they’re on the brink of elimination because of it. Let’s talk about it.

The Game, Simplified: The 5v5 Scoring Curse

Dallas has had an even-strength problem all season. In round one against the Wild, they’ve adopted a new, more frustrating problem at 5-on-5 that is perhaps worse than their old one. Whereas they were previously quite good at producing quality chances amidst low shot-volume, they are now a team that is out-chancing their opponent and getting absolutely nothing to show for it. Jesper Wallstedt, the Wall of St. Paul, has denied every 5-on-5 chance since Game 3.

Chart huggers (like me) are being brutalized online for posting these game after game to show that Dallas is actually playing fairly even with the Wild at evens… they’re just not getting the goals. Tonight was no different, though we’ll talk about what the Eye Test saw to open that third period in just a second. Dallas is boasting a 5-on-5 shooting percentage below 3%. For comparison’s sake, that’s on par with teams like Ottawa and Los Angeles these playoffs, who both got swept. It’s also well below Dallas’s regular-season average of 10.82%. They’re absolutely due for regression in the 5-on-5 scoring department, but there’s not a lot of time for that to manifest.

Now, to give credit to the Wild, they played a fantastic game. While Dallas was generating a lot of shot attempts, very few were making their way on net. The Wild blocked a metric ton of looks to help make Wallstedt’s job that much easier. It also feels like Dallas has primarily focused on trying to tip pucks in off the cycle, and those deflections have not always found their way on net. In the biggest moment of the game, perhaps the series, Minnesota made Dallas look absolutely lifeless to start the third period. Minnesota’s successful quashing of Dallas from the opening faceoff to the McCarron dagger will be the main memory from Game Five. Dallas needs to find something, anything, in order to ensure it’s not the sticking point of this series.

Special Teams Cannot Save You

Regression goes both ways. Dallas’s unstoppable power play looked a tad more mortal tonight, perhaps a combination of Minnesota’s adaptations and a genuine cooling off for the Stars. It kept them in the game where it could, both in the first period and late in the third on a psuedo-power play created by pulling Oettinger during 4-on-4 time.

And of course, because this series is all about breaking narratives, Jason Robertson scored his fifth goal in as many games. I think he now has 8 in his last 8 playoff games, dating back to last year. I don’t want to start talking like it’s the offseason just yet, but this has some pretty interesting implications if Dallas can’t pull the rabbit out of their hat to win two in a row.

The Stars have been a special-teams team all year. They’re really a special-teams club right now. And they didn’t win the special-teams battle by enough to overcome their demons at even strength. The Minnesota Wild’s power play, featuring a back-in-action Mats Zuccarello, looked much better tonight. Dallas made sure to feed them chances via horrific penalties, and the Wild cashed in. It’s one thing to have bad luck on evens. It’s another to hand your opponent opportunities on special teams. You simply can’t do that if your win condition revolves around that side of the game. At some level, you make your own luck. In a world where you’ve already got none, why tempt fate?

Miscellaneous Observations

• I think that Jake Oettinger has been relatively solid for the Stars this series, especially in comparison to his performance during the regular season. I probably should not have tweeted that, as it was a Jake Oettinger misplay that winds up being the dagger in this game. He attempts the poke check and gets beat by McCarron on what would become the game-winning goal. This series is certainly not on him considering the scoring issues Dallas is having, but man was that a tough watch.

• Mikko Rantanen had a better game tonight, but still doesn’t look like himself. I think he’s still dealing with whatever injury has been bugging him since the Olympics.

• It’s not an excuse, because everyone is injured this time of year, but man has the damage started to rack up on the Stars. Lundkvist was unable to play tonight after taking a skate blade to the face in Game 4. Besides the deep cut and swelling, Glen Gulutzan says that he may be dealing with something else. Arttu Hyry went out with a lower-body injury during the second period. Roope Hintz is still missing in action following his entanglement with Nathan MacKinnon a month or two ago. Even Matt Duchene went down the tunnel briefly in the third period. All of this, plus Tyler Seguin season-ending injury, has certainly exposed a depth issue up front that is rearing it’s ugly head in the playoffs. On top of having to push middle or bottom six guys higher up the lineup, the Stars are also not getting any goals from their bottom two lines. Things are simply bleak.

• Speaking of Nils Lundkvist, we got to see more of the Lundkvist-less Stars. It was not a fun experience. I actually thought that Ilya Lyubushkin had a solid game, but Tyler Myers looked horrific. He had some brutal failed zone exits, including one that ended up in Dallas’s net, and also took an untimely penalty. If there’s any consolation from this series, it’s that the Lundkvist extension is already aging like fine wine. Who knew he would be one of the most crucial pieces to Dallas’s blue line in the playoffs?

• Hyry’s injury will probably force Gulutzan into playing Bunting. I don’t understand why he’s been left out of the lineup in a series where your number one issue is scoring. He’s also pretty good at deflecting pucks, something that Dallas seems to want to do against Wallstedt (to limited success). We’re reaching borderline inexcusable decision making from Gully on these healthy scratches, unless Bunting is not as healthy as things would appear.

  

• It’s notable to me that Gulutzan did not go to the line blender much this series. We saw Robertson-Johnston-Rantanen put together in the third period, though to no avail. I know they don’t have many options, especially if Rantanen is injured and cannot carry his own line, but surely you have to try something new at this point in the series?

Checking the Stats: Experience Tyler Myers Hockey

I’d like it stated for the record that Jason Robertson has shown up all series. Miro Heiskanen has been good for the most part as well. A lot of other Stars don’t look quite like themselves, or have wilted when the lights have shown brightest. Dallas’s best players have chugged this team along all year. Now the scoring has dried up, and they’re depth doesn’t look strong enough to weather the storm.

Looking Ahead: Time to Doom?

Minnesota has everything going for them in Game Six: they have a chance to finally get out of the first round, at home, and against their hated rival no less. Dallas looks broken and can’t beat the Wall of St. Paul. Even if they can, it’s not like that alone is a recipe for winning two in a row on Minnesota. Remember, the advanced stats don’t show Dallas dominating the Wild. They show things being roughly even. Dallas might be due for regression, but that just brings us back to a coin flip. The odds of getting heads twice is about 1 in 4. That’s the same probability of winning a series after going down 3-2 in Game 5?

All indications will say that yes, now is the time to doom. The Stars are probably going to lose this series. But I am a fan at heart. The way I look at it: we can write the post mortem when the 2025-2026 season is officially in the grave. When Thursday comes around, we believe. It’s the only thing we have left to do.

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The Game, Simplified: Processes and Outcomes

Marcus Foligno’s “They can’t hang with us 5-on-5” is the quote of the series thus far. This win will have some fans wondering if he’s speaking some truth here. The Wild take game three with three 5-on-5 goals to Dallas’s zero. The proof is in the pudding, right? I’d like to take a look at the ingredients:

As you’d expect from these two teams, even-strength play was extremely tight throughout the game, with the Stars actually outplaying the Wild at 5-on-5 up until the last ten minutes of the third period. Even overtime started with the Stars having the better of the chances. This is a series where even-strength processes are evenly matched, even when their outcomes aren’t. Hats off to Jesper Wallstedt, who has been absolutely elite in net. We knew that solving him wasn’t going to be easy, but the Stars are going to need to figure it out if they want to win this series.

I have to give a shoutout to washing machine the Stars put up in Minnesota’s zone throughout the second period (and at times in OT). Their cycle game was absolutely vicious, sending some of Minnesota’s best players swimming for long stretches. You can see their impact happen live when taking a look at the shot-attempts chart pictured above.1 It’s certainly a shame that they couldn’t capitalize on those shifts, but the luck should even out in the end. Hopefully.

You Just Got Special Teams’d

While things have stated even in term of 5-on-5 processes, Dallas’s special teams are absolutely dominating Minnesota. The Stars killed four penalties tonight, making 10-straight kills against the Wild. Whether it’s the loss of Zuccarello, Minnesota cooling off, or Dallas’s penalty kill simply figuring things out, the Stars have stifled the Wild’s power play. The biggest thing that I’ve noticed is their ability to disrupt Minnesota’s entries.

On top of that, Dallas’s power play has looked ferocious. They were responsible for both of Dallas’s goals tonight, and seemed unstoppable if not for Jesper Wallstedt doing his best Jake-Oettinger-against-Calgary impression. By the way, did you notice the goal scorer? Jason “Doesn’t Show Up” Robertson has four goals in four games in this series. He’s scored in seven-straight playoff games, dating back to last year’s Western Conference Finals. It’s one thing to dispel a narrative. Robertson is looking to shatter one. Just like I told you he would.2

An All-Time Goalie Duel?

Jesper Wallstedt has been everything he’s been hyped up to be. As I alluded to, he’s in the process of putting on a performance to rival Jake Oettinger’s 2021 Calgary series. Dallas has really only managed to solve him at 5-on-5 so far, but I think that their strategy is in the right place. They’re primarily seeking out deflections in tight, but Wallstedt has answered for just about everything.

Meanwhile, Jake Oettinger has been quite good. Elite even. Minnesota was really shelling him in that overtime, and he put on a vintage performance to rob them quite a few times. It was a shame to see the Stars let him down in this one off the back of a lions’ share of failed zone exits. The goals that did beat him in regulation were rather flukey. Faber’s goal took a weird deflection off of Heiskenan’s block attempt, and Foligno scored his goal while attempting a piggyback ride on Oettinger. The game-winner was a skilled deflection from Boldy, who broke free from Myers’ coverage after being harassed in the corner. It was at the end of the first overtime period as well; they just needed to survive another 30 seconds or so.

All this is to say that these two netminders have given fans their money’s worth, and I’d expect a starting contest down the stretch. Let’s hope Jake Oettinger is not the first one to blink.

Miscellaneous Observations

• Nils Lundkvist’s injury may end up being the most important injury in a series filled with missing big-names. He’s been one of Dallas’s best players in terms of puck retrieval and zone exits, and you could tell how much the Stars missed him. He was pulled out of the game after taking a nasty cut to the face via skate blade, and there’s no telling (at the time of writing) when he’ll be able to return. His loss meant that Dallas had to play five defensemen tonight, which seemed to rapidly wear down their d-corps.

• I think that Tyler Myers was particularly impacted by Lundkvist’s exit, as he seems to perform best in more limited minutes. He and Bichsel got eaten alive as a result of failed zone exits, especially in that overtime period. I thought that he actually looked pretty good in the first half of the game, but is going to get justified criticism for his performance in the second half.

• Miro Heiskanen had a weird game. He seemed to be struggling with the puck, and had that aforementioned unfortunate play in which he deflected Faber’s shot into his own net. I was glad to see him score on the power play, not just for his sake, but because this power play deserved a goal after everything they threw at Wallstedt. With that goal, Heiskanen joins Robertson in having registered a point in every game of this series thus far. This no-look pass from Duchene was pretty nasty as well.

• We mentioned the cycle already, but it’s worth talking about again. I thought that the entirety of Dallas’s lineup played a role in establishing and maintaining the attack. In many cases, it was Dallas’s fourth or third lines who got things going initially, allowing the Stars to out change the Wild and keep the pressure going. We haven’t seen Dallas’s depth come through much in the scoring department this series, but they’re still managing to make an impact. The goals will come.

• When able to get away from the Boldy line, which Minnesota matched up against Robertson’s line tonight, the Hyrckowian-Johnston-Rantanen trio showed some signs of life. It still wasn’t consistent enough for my liking, and I would really enjoy seeing Bunting slot in for game five. Boldy’s line did seem to be an answer for Robo-Dutchy-Bourque, bringing them back down to earth in terms of expected-goal share.

• I touched on this in a previous bullet point, but this was a really good night for our makeshift third line. They won battles in the corner fairly consistently, and were able to create/extend some of Dallas’s cycles as a result. Their biggest problem seems to be the lack of a shooting threat, as much as I love the shot of Arttu Hyry. He did nearly end it in overtime, for the record.

• All this makes me wonder how Dallas changes things for game five, if at all. I’d still be down to see something like what I’ve got below, but I also could understand the decision to keep things as they are.

  Bunting-Johnston-Rantanen

  Robertson-Duchene-Bourque

  Hyrckowian-Steel/Hyry-Benn

  Steel/Hyry/Bäck-Faksa-Blackwell

• Hintz is currently listed as doubtful for game five, but he has begun to skate as his own. I’m not sure if he’s actually going to be healthy enough to get into this series, and I also don’t know how Dallas puts him into the lineup when he does return. Does he take back his spot between Robertson and Bourque, allowing the Stars to reunite the Unction?3 That would give the Stars three truly threatening lines, assuming Hintz is healthy, while also creating a third line that looks poised to eat their opponents for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Or would it be better to let Robo-Dutchy-Bourque do their thing, allowing Hintz to deal some damage further down the lineup (while also limiting his minutes if he’s unhealthy)? These are the decisions that will decide things in this best-of-three series.

Checking the Stats: Mikko Rantanen, Secretly Elite?

For the record, I did consider writing a miscellaneous observation about Rantanen. We’ve seen flashes of the Moose in this series, but he still hasn’t been his full self. As we’ve discussed already, his line is getting bodied by the Boldy line, which is certainly impacting his play. Dallas needs their superstar to come through this time of year; luckily, he’s not the only one we’ve got (everybody say thank you Jason Robertson).

Looking Ahead: Got the Job Done, But the Toughest Stretch Lies Ahead

It’s easy to be disappointed in this loss. This was a tight game that Dallas nearly won, which would’ve allowed them to come home with a commanding 3-1 series lead. All things considered, Dallas did exactly what needed to be done on the road: they won back home-ice. That means we’ve got a best-of-three set ahead of us in which game five and, if needed, the crucial game seven will be played in Dallas. That isn’t something we should take for granted in a series where momentum can be everything.

Luck is a brutal thing in hockey. In many cases, you make some of your own luck. That’s why the processes are so important. And Dallas’s processes are good, which means that they’ve got the formula to win this series right in front of them. If they can continue to dominate on special teams and keep even-strength play tight, they should come out on top. They should get the bounces that Minnesota got tonight. They should be able to win this series. Only time will tell if everything falls into place.

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The Game, Simplified: Special Teams, Take Me Home

Playoff hockey is supposed to be the time where the referees “swallow their whistles.” Naturally, there were a total of 15 power plays handed out in this game, including two for each team across both overtime periods. The game was ultimately decided by which team performed better in this department: the Stars went 3 for 8, while the Wild went 1 for 7.

Things started off really well for Dallas, with an early power-play goal from Mikko Rantanen courtesy of a beautiful pass from Jason Robertson. Minnesota did strike back on a first-period power play of their own before tying the game at even strength early in the second. After that, the Stars faced what looked to be the meltdown of the series, failing to convert on three straight power plays (including a lengthy 5-on-3 stretch). It went from bad to worse when Michael McCarron scored the go-ahead goal right after the kill was completed for the Wild. When I say that special teams can swing momentum, this is exactly what I’m talking about:

Fortunately, Dallas’s special teams weren’t done with this game. The Stars took two early penalties to start the third, and killed them both off to keep the game within one. They followed that up with another power-play goal brought to you by Mikko Rantanen’s elite playmaking and Playoff Matt Duchene, who seems to have arrived for the first time in his career. I wouldn’t have it any other way.

The Stars would have to kill three more penalties from that point onward until the early minutes of Double Overtime. With the game on the line, they survived them all. Credit to guys like Radek Faksa, Arttu Hyry, Esa Lindell, and Miro Heiskanen, who all looked incredible on the penalty kill. Even Tyler Myers had a solid game when the Stars were down a man. Dallas eventually got some power play chances of their own, and who else but the best power-play goal scorer in franchise history to send us home from his office? Are you not entertained‽

“They Can’t Hang With Us 5-on-5”

Do you ever say something and immediately regret it? That’s what Marcus Foligno should be doing after dropping this bizarre quote following Dallas’s Game 2 victory. While special teams deservedly got the focus in Game 3, it’s worth taking a look at how this take aged:

While they may not have out chanced the Wild on the whole tonight, they did out quality them, even if they weren’t being rewarded. Jesper Wallstedt deserves his flowers for continuing to put up elite performances in his first playoff run. Dallas’s cycle game looked extremely solid tonight, and it’s only a matter of time before they start to get rewarded. Funnily enough, their lone even-strength goal came off of the rush: a snipe by Jason Robertson, who is currently a goal-per-game player in these playoffs. It’s fun watching narratives die before our very eyes.

So yes, Dallas can hang with the Wild at even strength. I’m not sure why this was in question aside from the fact that a player from Minnesota was upset after a loss and said a classic hockey cliché.

Getting Nasty

I wasn’t sure if it was worth making this its own section, but I figured it was important enough to the game that it’d be neglectful to exclude it. This series has been marked by some nastiness on all sides, whether it was Marcus Foligno trying to drive Harley’s head into the glass and ice WWE style in game 2, or Jamie Benn “accidentally on purposely” clipping Boldy’s head early in the first period. Boldy was pulled by the concussion spotter for the remainder of the first, but returned after intermission and looked every bit his usual self. I was surprised that Benn got away with this one, and it’s not a hit I’d like to see in the NHL, incidental or not.

Marcus Foligno also took some damage, though it was largely of his own accord. He blocked a shot from Matt Duchene before sliding into him, causing Duchene to fall on top of Foligno. While a major penalty was called on Duchene to give the officials a chance to review things, they rightly found that no penalty occurred. And despite what some beat writers will tell you, Duchene did not, in fact, come back to punch a bloodied Foligno in the face.1

You’re going to see complaints from fans all throughout this series as guys try to get an extra jab or check in after the whistle. Guys are going to walk the line as much as they can get away with it, and I’m not sure that the 15 power plays handed out tonight is going to do anything to stop it.

Miscellaneous Observations

• We have to talk about Nils Lundkvist. He doesn’t really get power play time nor looks at the penalty kill, so his 5-on-5 play is everything. Going from a guy who was benched all playoffs to being one of the most positively impactful defenseman for the Stars is an incredible journey. His even-strength play was second only to his partner, Harley, in terms of expected-goal share.2 The fact that Jim Nill just signed him to a $1.75 million extension for the next two years makes things even sweeter. That is going to be an absolute steal, assuming he keeps this style of play.

• Radek Faksa deserves a ton of praise for his performance tonight. He looked great in all facets of the game besides taking an untimely penalty in the third period.3 He pretty much had the quintessential Radek Faksa game: he won draws, he blocked shots, and he limited Minnesota’s chances at even strength. He even managed to put on a legacy performance on the PK without a stick! I’m still not a fan of paying him $2 million until 2028, simply because of the cap problems it creates, but damn if this wasn’t a great game from Faksa. The Stars don’t win without him on the ice tonight.

• Miro Heiskanen played over 43 minutes tonight, which is a career high. Keep in mind that this includes time on the power play and penalty kill, too. He had the crucial assist on Wyatt Johnston’s game-winning goal. It’s incredible to consider that we were unsure whether he would even be in the lineup just a few weeks ago.

• Seeing Dallas’s biggest names pop off when the lights get brightest has been very satisfying. Jason “Doesn’t Show Up” Robertson is tied for the goal-scoring and point-scoring (3-2—5) lead in the playoffs alongside Johnston (3-2—5) and Duchene (2-3—5). Mikko Rantanen is starting to look like his normal self, though that does include his share of unnecessary penalties. I’d like to see Thomas Harley unleash his scoring a bit, but his advanced metrics have been good. If Dallas’s mainstays are better than their counterparts in Minnesota, then the Stars are going to be able to win this series.

• Jake Oettinger was meh tonight. It was far from his best performance, and you’d like him to come up big on that go-ahead goal from McCarron. He made the saves when he needed to, particularly on the penalty kill. I thought that the team played much better in front of him than they have throughout the series for what it’s worth. Perhaps we can thread the needle between game two and game three to get an absolutely legendary defensive performance from Dallas in game four?

Checking the Stats: Playoff Robo and Playoff Nils are ELITE???

Looking Ahead: Keep the Pedal Down

The Stars have officially reclaimed home-ice, which puts them in control of the series a bit. I think that they’ve got the formula down to really get a stranglehold on this series. They made life difficult for Wallstedt while defending their own zone quite well. The cycle is bound to cash in here soon!

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The Game, Simplified: Never a Doubt

The Minnesota Wild have never held a 2-0 series lead. Not once. Given that statistic, and Dallas’s record after going down 0-1 recently, perhaps we shouldn’t have been worried heading into this one. Nevertheless, we needed to see a response from the Stars. Boy did we get one. I can’t think of the last time that they were this dominant in terms of even-strength shot attempts.

Sure, special teams broke things up a bit (we’ll talk about them in a minute), but what really impresses me here is the fact that Dallas took the opportunity to cement their control over the game despite entering the third period with a lead. Their cycle game was on full display tonight, and man did it look dangerous. There’s some real “if you build it, they will come” energy to that style of play.1 That third period was some of their best hockey of the night, and they were rewarded with what would become the game-winning goal. And what a goal it was. A Nils Lundkvist shot, tipped in by Jason Robertson? You bet I was screaming about this one.

It’s worth discussing how the Minnesota Wild managed to out-quality the Dallas Stars at both 5-on-5 and in all situations, making this a rare anti-Dallas Stars win of sorts.2 We’ll give Jake Oettinger his well-deserved flowers here shortly.

The way I look at this game: it wasn’t perfect, but it was a damn good win. Everybody seemed to step up for the Stars, and they made some crucial improvements from Saturday night to earn themselves a tied series. There’s still a lot of work to do though; they’ve got to win at least one in Minnesota, or else they’ll come home facing elimination. Celly hard tonight Stars fans, but gear up for a big set in St. Paul all the same. We have ourselves a series.

Playoff Jake Oettinger???

Everybody say “thank you Jake Oettinger.” I think this may have been his best performance of the season. This game could have very easily been 4-1 or even 4-0 for the Wild after the first period, but Otter made some absolutely diabolical saves to keep things level.

It’s hard to pick a favorite to include here, but I think that this 1v1 robbery on Matt Boldy, who has been as advertised thus far, was the perfect representative of the first period. Dallas looked out of sorts at time both offensively and defensively, but Oettinger made sure to give his team a chance. For all the criticism that’s been lobbed at Otter this year, both justified and unjustified, he managed to show up yet again when it matters most. This was especially important, given that Jesper Wallstedt put on another solid performance.

The Art of the Kill

One of the biggest question marks heading into tonight was whether Dallas’s penalty kill could solve Minnesota’s power play, which has brutalized the Stars all season. Thanks to an early Mikko Rantanen penalty, we got our answer fairly quickly in this one. The Stars were a perfect four for four on the penalty kill tonight, and looked the part as well. I found myself constantly noting that the Stars had won a battle in the corner in order to get possession and clear, even after losing the initial draw. They just seemed to have that extra effort tonight, and looked much more cohesive as a unit. It’s an incredible response, and one that no doubt won them the game. The kill near the end of the third period was a giant rubber stamp on a successful night for the PK.

While we’re on the topic of special teams, it’s worth noting that Dallas’s power play cashed in as well. We noted in the series preview that these two clubs would be able to trade punches away from even strength, and that winning the special-teams battle would be one of the many keys to this series. The Stars got the job done on the penalty kill, but also tallied the lone power play goals of this game.3 I actually thought their power play looked a little out of sorts, particularly on their entries, but they fought through it nonetheless. Getting Mikko Rantanen and Matt Duchene going with a goal like this is certainly something Dallas would like to have happening. What a celly!

Intensity Rising

Have I talked about how much I dislike the Folignos? Whether it’s the flying elbows or whatever the hell *this* was, they were in total clown-show form tonight.

We knew that this series would get ugly at some point, but this play on Thomas Harley was inexcusable. I’m frankly baffled that Marcus Foligno wasn’t assessed a game misconduct. The officiating wasn’t great tonight and could never seem to get a handle on the game. We’re lucky that Thomas Harley was able to skate away from this play uninjured.

To be clear, this isn’t a rant against physicality in the playoffs. Colin Blackwell laid a monstrous, but clean hit on Yakov Trenin that unfortunately sent him out of the game. I don’t love the outcome, but I also don’t know how that sort of play can be easily taken out of hockey. Flying elbows and WWE moves though?4 They may be fine in George Parros’s NHL, but I wish they could be removed from mine.

Miscellaneous Observations

• Glen Gulutzan did change up some of the lines tonight, placing Hyrckowian on the top line and constructing a new third line of Steel-Hyry-Benn. Gulutzan said that the decision to bring in Arttu Hyry over Adam Erne was to give a boost to the penalty kill and Dallas’s faceoffs. I’d say that the plan worked out as envisioned. Hyry had a really solid game tonight, especially in his own end. The third line won their minutes as well, which is a good sign.

• Sticking with the lineup decisions, I was a bit disappointed to see Michael Bunting scratched once again. With the top line having a rougher time defensively tonight, I wonder if Gulutzan will consider changing things around for game three or if he commits to this combination for the forward group. Even if you don’t give him top-six minutes, I do think that the offense Bunting can provide would be worthwhile on your third or fourth line. Oskar Bäck does bring something to the penalty kill, but I’d still consider making the swap if I were Gulutzan.

• How hype was that game-winning goal? So many storylines melded together into a single shot. New dad Nils Lundkvist, whose playoff experience under DeBoer largely consisted of healthy scratches and being benched, putting together a strong start to this year’s postseason campaign is a great sign. He had two assists tonight and has looked defensively responsible as well. The contract extension he signed is going to be an absolute steal by the way, and will be crucial to keeping guys like Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque. Speaking of which, for Robo to tip that shot in and score his second goal in as many games was a nice touch. I hope he keeps this up and puts the “playoff performance” narrative to bed for good.

• Mikko Rantanen was a mixed bag tonight. He did have some nice plays from time to time, but hasn’t quite reached his stride since returning from injury. I did notice that the Wild were willing to give him time and space to set up behind the net, which is an area where he can deal damage with his top-tier passing capabilities. He wasn’t able to create something from that spot tonight, but it’ll come if Minnesota doesn’t respect his playmaking. The Moose did get himself into some penalty trouble tonight, as he has done all season. It’s the most frustrating part of his game, and something that needs to be flushed out if the Stars want to win this series. They simply cannot afford to put the Wild on the power play.

• Matt Duchene mentioned that the Stars were due some fortunate bounces after not getting much in game one. Talk about calling your shot. Wyatt Johnston’s first goal of the night deflected off of the boards, off of Wallstedt, and into the net. His second goal of the night was a long-distance empty netter that just barely curved into the cage. The best part of it all had to be Quinn Hughes giving up on the play only for the puck to turn at the last minute, resulting in a last-ditched effort by Hughes to prevent the goal in which he sent himself flying into the boards. Suffice it to say that he was not happy!

• While the Stars managed to shut down many of Minnesota’s best players (thank you Jake Oettinger), one rose above and nearly willed the team to victory. Brock Faber made some great plays to put himself on hat-trick watch. His first goal was absolutely elite, and showed the Stars why they may want to avoid 4-on-4 hockey as much as possible.

Checking the Stats: Improvement Obtained!

Looking Ahead

The Stars will now travel to Minnesota for game three as the series transitions to a best-of-five. They’re goal is to steal back home ice, ideally with a win in either game three or game four. I do feel good about Dallas’s game as they head on the road, especially in a barn that Jake Oettinger has historically performed well in. Winning both games would really flip this series on it’s head. Losing both puts Dallas on life support. Get the job done up North!

As always, let me know your thoughts in the comments below. On to game three!

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The format for these Playoff Postgames roughly follows what we’ve done all season, just with a slightly new coat of paint. I do plan on diving a bit more in depth to these articles since each game is all that more important than their regular-season counterparts. However you’re feeling after game one, and whoever you’re rooting for, I hope you’ll find something useful to takeaway from these postgame pieces.1 Now let’s talk about game one!

The Game, Simplified: Six(ty) Minutes of Doom and Despair

There’s two ways to look at this game, I think. If we’re trying to stay as positive as possible, I think that you have to focus in on the opening six minutes of the second period, in which the Wild opened a can of worms on Dallas by tallying three even-strength goals in quick succession. Outside of those six minutes or so, the Stars were actually the better team in terms of 5-on-5 production. Now, this is partially because there was very little happening at even strength for either club, but still. We’re staying positive, remember?

The night as a whole was made worse by the fact that Minnesota once again bodied the Stars on special teams. We talked in the series preview about how Minnesota’s power play should cool down at some point. That doesn’t mean it has to in this series, as much as the Stars would like it to. Dallas’s power play actually looked fairly dangerous, I thought. It brought them some life late in the second period, and I do wonder how this game would have looked if they had managed to score on any of the grade-A opportunities they got early in the third while on the man advantage.

In any case, game one is over and done with. While it was close in the spreadsheets, which certainly offers some hopium (or copium; take your pick), it’s safe to say that the Stars got throttled by the Wild. Minnesota takes the crucial 1-0 series lead and has stolen home ice as a result. We’re quite used to Dallas losing in game one, but it’s never a comfortable situation to be in. Monday night’s game is functionally a “must win” in my book.

The Big Names

I’m feeling a bit vindicated from my preview of this series in that many of the keys I talked about are at the center of how this game was decided. For example, the score sheet reads as a “who’s who” of Minnesota’s best players. They clearly won the playoff performer battle. Kirill Kaprizov and his line dominated their chances, while Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek looked dangerous throughout the night. Quinn Hughes was very dynamic as well, and it was extremely obvious how impactful he can be on breakout when you compare Minnesota’s success in that department to whatever the hell Dallas was doing.

Dallas’s best players were largely invisible, though I did think that the line of Robertson-Duchene-Bourque was far and away the best trio that Dallas rolled out. Mikko Rantanen was most noticeable for taking some poorly timed penalties, while Wyatt Johnston was heavily shut down by the Wild. Most of Dallas’s other players were ineffective at best and damaging at worst. For what it’s worth, I did think that Miro Heiskanen looked good in his return. It’s pretty fitting that Jason Robertson was the lone Star to score tonight, given the amount of discourse around his ability to show up in the playoffs. Don’t lie: for a brief moment following this goal you thought “hey, maybe they can get back into this thing after all.” Just me?

The Goaltending Question(s)

It’s very easy to look at the score and the spreadsheets and assume that Jake Oettinger was the reason that the Stars lost tonight. I’ll be the first (and only?) person to disagree with that sentiment. To be clear, Otter did not have a good night. But if we go goal by goal, which ones would you have liked him to have back? My mind goes to Kaprizov’s snipe, but that was an absolutely disgusting shot that he’s able to get off because of a defensive breakdown. Maybe Boldy’s goal from the side of the net? But again, you’ve got a defensive misplay in that Harley gets out muscled in his attempt to disrupt the shot. I actually thought that Oettinger was playing pretty well throughout the game, especially compared to how the rest of the team looked. But I get it: it’s the playoffs, and you’re going to need your goaltender to be going above and beyond during this time of year. And yet, we rarely find ourselves debating what it means when a team would’ve need a Vezina-tier performance in order to win the hockey game.

On the other side of things, Jesper Wallstedt looked absolutely terrifying tonight. Contrary to the belief of some twitter users, I did not actually think he was going to allow seven goals tonight. I’m a Jesper Wallstedt believer after all.2 I even said as much in my series preview! Even then, I was very impressed by his performance in his Stanley Cup Playoff debut. He has certainly cast away any Stars-related lingering questions from his first NHL game, and it was silly of me to hope that there was some sort of psychological factor at play.3 If anything, tonight makes me think that we’re lucky that he hasn’t faced off against the Stars much before. He looked incredibly poised during the power play in the third period, in which he made a tough save on Matt Duchene and then denied Robertson’s mid-air rebound attempt.

For Dallas to win this series, they’re going to need to find an answer for Wallstedt. It’s as simple as that. Well, there’s actually a lot of improvement that they’ll need to make, but that’s going to be a big one. In the meantime, you’d like Jake Oettinger to try and match his performances going forward. The Stars did manage to produce a lot of chances from dangerous ice, but it was just far too late into the game to matter (and not quite dangerous enough).

Miscellaneous Observations (Playoffs Edition)

• To fit with the “referencing the preview” theme, I could’ve written a section on Glen Gulutzan as well, but I figured it would work better as a bullet point. I really didn’t like his lineup decisions tonight whatsoever. Putting Steel on the top line after we’ve had an entire season to see that it doesn’t work is borderline incompetent. I was glad to see him slot Hryckowian in there by the end of things, and am hopeful that we see either he or Bunting up top for game two. Speaking of which, playing guys like Oskar Bäck and Adam Erne over Michael Bunting or even Arttu Hyry is an interesting choice. It’s not definitively the wrong call, and hindsight is 20/20, but I didn’t love it when it was announced and I don’t love it now. The adjustment period between games is where Gulutzan can have his biggest impact as a coach. Let’s see what he’s made of.

• The Tyler Myers experience has not been fun. His early penalty was quite blatant, and it put the Stars in the hole early on. You can have size and be physical without putting your team into bad situations. The Stars cannot afford to load up this Wild power play.

• On that note, Mikko Rantanen has to figure out this penalty nonsense as well. Your star players exist in part to change momentum in your favor, not to kill it with an offensive-zone infraction.

• One thing that absolutely killed Dallas tonight was their breakouts. This wasn’t just a sloppiness thing either. Minnesota totally subjected the Stars to their will, and it resulted in many of the goals that the Wild scored tonight. In particular, I believe that all three of the even-strength tallies were closely linked to a failed zone exit. Credit to the Wild for this, and Dallas will need to find an adjustment moving forward.

• I do think that the Stars were a lucky bounce or two away from getting themselves back into this game in the second period. Bichsel rung one off of the bar shortly after Dallas went down 4-0, and Hughes and Wallstedt combined for a pretty ridiculous save not long after Dallas scored on their power play. I’m not here to lie and say that Minnesota didn’t deserve this win, because they absolutely did, but it’s always funny to consider how differently we’d be talking about this game if the Stars had gotten some puck luck.

Checking the Stats: Improvement Needed

Again, I think that anyone who watched the game would say that Otter got absolutely hung out to dry tonight, so take his game-score rating as you will.

Looking Ahead

I believe that 68% of game-one winners go on to win the series. Like we said, we’ve gotten pretty used to Dallas dropping the first game and still finding a way to battle back. This loss no doubt makes things more difficult for them. At the same time, a 32% chance of victory is not zero, and it’s not uncommon to see pretty dramatic swings from game to game in a series.

In the playoffs, each loss feels like the death knell while each victory puts you on top of the world. That’s just the nature of this time of year. The Stars have a lot of adjustments to make heading into a crucial game two. If you’d like some recency bias to calm your nerves, look no further than game one of the 2025 Stars vs Avs series.

Need to vent, gloat, or anything in between? Feel free to let me know your thoughts on this one in the comments! Until next time readers.

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Yeah, it’s entirely a tongue-in-cheek title, but we like to have fun here. What I’ve got for y’all today is a brief breakdown of the entire first round, plus my more subjective takes on how the rest of the bracket shapes out from here. I’d highly recommend checking out my “They’re In” series on each club if you’d like a deeper dive into each individual team’s strengths and weaknesses. There’s not much else to talk about, so here goes:

Colorado vs. Los Angeles

This is the most Hydrogen Bomb vs Coughing Baby matchup of the first round. The Presidents’ Trophy Winning Colorado Avalanche are by far the most complete team in the league. They have literally everything going for them, including an elite offenses, solid defense, good goaltending, and respectable special-teams numbers. Their power play has really begun to surge since bringing in Nazem Kadri at the trade deadline. While they’re led by their top dogs like MacKinnon (THE dawg), Makar, and Nečas, they’ve got players that can threaten opposing teams all throughout the lineup. This should allow them to rest some of their bigger players, in turn making them a bit more impactful.

The Los Angeles Kings aren’t a total pushover, but they shouldn’t give the Avs too much trouble. Don’t get me wrong, their even-strength numbers are actually quite good. They’re one of the few defenses that might actually be able to contain Colorado’s offense, though I’d still expect the Avalanche to break through. If the Kings can get some miracle goaltending in net, and can see a modest improvement to their shooting percentage, then we’ll have a series. That latter point could be aided by the goaltending regression Colorado is likely due for. Surely we can get some retirement-season magic from Anže Kopitar?

If we’re starting to rely on luck, it’s probably indicative that this series shouldn’t be all too close. I’ve got the Avalanche winning it in five games, though a sweep is definitely possible.

Stars vs Wild

The Dallas Stars and the Minnesota Wild are two of the best teams in the entire NHL. I’ve already broken down this series for you in my article earlier this morning! I don’t want to spoil my prediction, so seriously, go read it.

Done? Good.

This is going to be one of, if not the closest series in the entire bracket. It’ll also be one of the most emotionally charged. That makes for great hockey, whether you’ve got skin in the game or not. From my analysis, I’ve found that these two teams are rather equal in just about every way. As a result, I think that either team could come away victorious, and it’ll probably be in overtime of Game Seven.

I do have the Stars taking it home. It’s just a gut feeling, perhaps motivated by my bias for Dallas and against Minnesota. I do feel like Dallas’s biggest names will end up being more impactful than those of the Wild, which I think will end up deciding the series. Again, either team is a valid prediction in my book, so I won’t be too worked up if I get this one wrong. It’s going to be an absolute dogfight!

Vegas vs Utah

This is one is interesting. I’ve gone on the record saying that the Vegas Golden Knights should be much better than their record says. They’ve quietly been one of the most elite teams in the league in terms of processes, but have been absolutely crushed by bad goaltending. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lot of predictions value the fact that this roster is still pretty similar to the one that won the Stanley Cup just a few years ago. Adding Mitch Marner to a group that already included Jack Eichel, Mark Stone has made them a bit more top heavy than before, but is that really a bad thing? If they get the goaltending they’ve missed all year, and their defense can contain Utah’s attack, then they’ll be in a good spot.

The problem for Vegas is that the Utah Mammoth are genuinely elite, I think. Their wildcard status shouldn’t be given too much credence when it comes to understanding this team. They’re young, they’re fast, and they play a pretty complete game in both ends of the ice. I do think that the speed difference between these two clubs is going to be the difference, especially if Utah manages to come out swinging early with some rush goals.

Everyone is praising the hiring of John Tortorella, but am I the only one who thinks this is a disaster in the making? Bruce Cassidy built this team into what it is, but got screwed by bad luck. How will Torts react if Utah does make things tougher than Vegas might expect? And of all the teams with bad goaltending, I do feel like Vegas’s net is the least likely to see positive regression. Taking all of that in consideration, I’ve got Utah winning this series in five games. Bold, I know!

Edmonton vs Anaheim

These two clubs are somewhat similar to one another. They’re right next to each other in terms of even-strength offense, with the Anaheim Ducks ranked just ahead of the Edmonton Oilers. Special teams are definitely in Edmonton’s hands though, which could make the difference in this series. Both also have a goaltending problem, and it’s hard to say which is in a worse spot. Anaheim’s feels more likely to see a positive regression out of their starter, while I assume that Edmonton will simply rotate goalies and hope it all works out.

One thing that I think will end up deciding this series is the way that Edmonton’s offense and Anaheim’s defense will interact. The Oilers produce most of their chances from the area of the ice that Anaheim gives up the most chances.

This just feels like a recipe for disaster in Anaheim. They’ll need to try to outscore their problems, especially without a clear option to me as to who could contain Connor McDavid. I’m expecting a ton of goals in this series, ultimately culminating with an Edmonton Oilers victory in six games.

Buffalo vs Boston

I’ve talked before about neither of these teams read as very legitimate to me. Starting with the Buffalo Sabres, you certainly have to be proud of what they put together this year. Winning the Atlantic Division is no small feat, especially considering how rough the start to the season was for this club. Looking at their underlying numbers, I feel like the Sabres are much more mid tier than they are elite. They do have some really solid forward depth, with one of the strongest top-nines in the entire league, which has historically predicted success in the postseason. How will their young pieces like Tage Thompson and Josh Doan respond to a playoff environment? I do also like the look of their blue line. Perhaps we should be talking less about how Buffalo is overrated and more about how they’re underperforming. This team really does look like a Contender in everything but their under-the-hood numbers.

The Boston Bruins are fraudulent and are relying almost entirely on Jeremy Swayman and some sharpshooting from Morgan Geekie and Viktor Arvidsson. That isn’t to say it won’t win them this series though. I’ve got Buffalo in six, but wouldn’t be shocked to see an upset here. It’s Buffalo after all!

Tampa Bay vs Montreal

Tricky, tricky, tricky. Who do you pick in this one? After Stars-Wild, it’s probably the closest series in the playoffs. At least, that’s what everyone in hockey media is going to tell you.

If I’ll be honest with you, I think that the Tampa Bay Lightning should be heavily favored to win this first-round matchup. They’re producing offense at an elite level, have created an absolute black hole in their own zone, and are stop gapped by one of the best goaltenders in the entire league. Kucherov, Point, and Hagel are simply due for another run. I do have concerns about their blue line, but their body of work speaks for itself this season. Tampa Bay needs to just stick to their game and not get dragged into any of the extracurriculars that are likely to arise in this series. We’ve seen how that’s disrupted them in the past, resulting in two-straight first-round exits to their in-state rivals.

I will say that the Montreal Canadiens have the better storyline going for them. Who doesn’t want to see genuine superstars like Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield take that next step? While they’ve got a lot of the intangibles going for them, I don’t think that this team is deep enough to get through the Bolts. They’ve been bolstered by incredibly good shooting all year, and I don’t think I can go with the lucky team over the one that’s consistently playing at an elite level. Montreal is still emerging from their chrysalis and have a bright future ahead, so don’t feel too bad for them. In this battle of the old guard and the rising stars, I’ve got the veteran Tampa Bay Lightning winning out in six games.

Carolina vs Ottawa

Now we’re getting to the real upset-potential matchup. Let’s start with the Carolina Hurricanes, who are certainly one of the best teams in this entire tournament. They’re the model breakers of the NHL after all, leveraging an absurd shot-attempt differential to outscore their opponents, even if they’re not necessarily producing as high quality of looks. I thought it was interesting that they didn’t add to their lineup much at the trade deadline, as it still feels like they need just one more player to get over that hump. Where my concern lies most with Carolina is their goaltending, which has looked extremely shaky down the stretch.

The Ottawa Senators, meanwhile, are one of many teams that have been nuked by their netminding. Outside of that, they’re one of the most complete clubs in the entire league. Their defense is absolutely incredible, which is going to be critical to keeping things even with Carolina. Of these two teams, I do wonder if Ottawa is more likely to see positive goaltending regression than Carolina, but that’s only because Ullmark has past seasons that we can compare this one to, whereas Bussi is taking on the NHL for the first time.

My brain is telling me to go with Carolina, but my gut says that the Senators are going to get the upset in this one. It relies heavily on Ullmark finding his form, I’ll admit. This is one of my bolder picks, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go the other way. Sens in Seven!

Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia

The fact that we’re getting the Battle of Pennsylvania in these playoffs is absolutely hilarious. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, saw this coming. If they did, they’re lying to you.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are actually a pretty solid team. They’ve earned my respect and deserve an apology for doubting them all year. My only major question mark is whether Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Karlsson have the gas in the tank to get through a deep playoff run. Physicality is always highest in the first round, and I imagine that it’ll be amplified by a rivalry as storied as this one. I believe that most of them have dealt with some sort of injury this year too, which adds to the concern. Still, the talent is absolutely here for the Penguins. They’ve got some solid young guys emerging at just the right time too!

I do really like what the Philadelphia Flyers have done this season. As I said in my article on them, they’re sort of a Dallas-lite. If I think that the Stars can find success with that style, I’m somewhat required to think Philly will too, right? Well… there are some problems here. The Flyers aren’t very good at special teams, which is something Dallas relies heavily on to makeup for the nothingness they’d like to see happening at even strength. I also don’t think that Philadelphia’s best players stack up to those of Penguins, though many are young and unproven enough to surprise us still. I think that Philadelphia is going to give it everything that they’ve got, but in the end it’ll be Pittsburgh taking this one home in five games. It’ll be a close five games though!

The Rest of the Way

I won’t go too deep on any of these, since we’ve got no clue yet if they’ll actually manifest. In the battle of Colorado and Dallas, I think we’ll get another series that goes the distance. Honestly, whichever team comes out of this part of the bracket is probably winning the Stanley Cup, assuming they aren’t too beat down. As things stand now, I have Colorado moving on, but it’s really close. Where’s the fun in that though? We’re picking the Stars!

Utah and Edmonton is another really interesting one. I can’t seem to shake the feeling that Utah has something special going on. McDavid is probably the biggest X-Factor in this whole thing, especially if Draisaitl is still out. I’m taking Utah for the fun of it.

If the Lightning can handle the Canadiens, I think they’ll do just fine against the Sabres.

Ottawa-Pittsburgh would be one of the most fun matchups of these playoffs, simply because we haven’t seen either of these teams past the first round in a good while. If I have Ottawa getting through Carolina, it means that their goaltending is back up to speed. If that’s the case, I don’t know that the Penguins have the ability to stop them.

My Western-Conference Final is set as Stars-Utah, which should be a great series. Utah actually matches up pretty well against Dallas, so this won’t be a pushover by any means. But I’ve been invigorated by a sudden surge in belief, so I’ve got the Stars making the Stanley Cup Final. Sue me.

An Eastern Conference Final matchup between Tampa Bay and Ottawa could really go either way, but the Bolts are the more consistent team in my book. Give me that Bubble Cup rematch I’ve been wanting forever!

Okay I’ll admit, I’m having some fun with this portion of the predictions. It’s hard to be objective when we get into the hypothetical matchups this deep into the playoffs. By the time they actually come around, we’ll know much more about what these teams have to offer. What style is driving their playoff success? How healthy are they? Which players have shown up, and which could be an X-Factor as soon as they emerge?

So yeah, the first round was as objective as I could be. But these later rounds are about having fun. I wasn’t going to pick the Stars to win it all this year because, truth be told, I think that the Avalanche are the favorite. The rematch we’re destined for isn’t 2020, it’s 2022. But that article isn’t as fun to write and that prediction isn’t as fun to make. So if we end up getting Avs-Bolts instead of Stars-Bolts, just know you heard it here first but that I’m letting myself enjoy life.

Stars beat the Lightning in 7 games to take home their second Stanley Cup in franchise history. Book it!

Let me know who you have winning it all in the comments below! Best of luck to you and your teams, and let’s have ourselves a great playoffs.

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The Stanley Cup Playoffs. There isn’t a better tournament in sports, and I’ll argue about that with anyone until the day that I die. There’s something particularly special about the first round, in which every fanbase feels like they’re team has a chance to make something happen, even if they know that they’re David staring down Goliath.

Like in years past, the NHL’s playoff format has come under scrutiny. It’s for good reason, too. The Dallas Stars and the Minnesota Wild will be facing off in round one, despite the fact that they are the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the Western Conference.1 No matter how entertaining the matchup is going to be, it’s absolutely cruel that one of these two clubs has to go home in the first round.

Today, I’m going to do my best to preview this playoff series for you through a “Keys to the Series” sort of lens. We’ll get into the weeds of the analytics at some levels, while also touching on some basic hockey theory. If you’d like an extremely in-depth breakdown of this matchup, I’d highly recommend checking out David Castillo’s Series Preview. It’s worth the $8!

Before you read this piece, I would highly recommend checking out my articles on the two teams we’re focusing on today, as that will give you a good baseline understanding of their strengths and weaknesses heading into the postseason. You can read about the Dallas Stars here and the Minnesota Wild here. They’re quick reads, so it shouldn’t take you too long!2

There’s a lot to cover before we can try and predict just how this series is going to end. What follows is my exploration into what I think we’ll look back on when determining how the winning club got the job done. Without further ado, let’s dive into this thing.

Key 1: Playoff Performers

Every playoff autopsy, no matter the context, features an assessment of whether each player “showed up” when it counted in the postseason. While this conversation does all depend on what you consider to be “a performer,” the reality is that very few players are able to consistently reach even just a point-per-game level in the postseason. That’s what makes someone like Mikko Rantanen so special for the Dallas Stars. Of active players, he ranks 4th in terms of points per game in the playoffs. Us Stars fans got a taste of this magic last year when the Moose went wild in the first and second rounds to help push an injured Stars team past two of the best clubs in the league that year.

Mikko Rantanen is the premier playoff performer in this matchup, and by far. The other top names you’ll see thrown around in this series are as follows:

• Quinn Hughes (0.87 P/GP, 31st among active players)

• Kirill Kaprizov (0.84 P/GP, 43rd among active players)

• Jason Robertson (0.79 P/GP, 54th among active players)

• Roope Hintz* (0.73 P/GP, 66th among active players)

• Miro Heiskanen (0.70 P/GP, 70th among active players)

• Matt Boldy (0.61 P/GP, 100th among active players)

• Wyatt Johnston (0.57 P/GP, 115th among active players)

Obviously, there is way more nuance to this discussion than just their point-per-game numbers. Take for instance the fact that Roope Hintz (and perhaps Miro Heiskanen) may not be available for this series. If they are, there’s no guarantee that they’re playing at 100%. Meanwhile, players like Matt Boldy and Wyatt Johnston have emerged as elite talent and will be looked towards to perform even better than they have in previous postseasons. Expect them to start climbing these rankings soon. Kaprizov and Robertson seem to get criticized for being “power-play merchants” in the playoffs, but are special teams not a crucial part of winning a series? Consider also that, for the defensemen on this list, there is much more that goes into a solid performance than simply putting up points.

All this is to say that a good playoff performance cannot be judged solely by who produces offensively. It’s certainly a key part, but it’s far from the whole story. I think the biggest piece of being a “playoff performer,” is playing your role and playing it well. From this framework, we begin to talk about the entire team rather than just the superstars.

Mikko Rantanen is going to be asked to take over games and produce offense out of nothing. Wyatt Johnston is going to be looked towards to score a big-time power-play goal. Quinn Hughes is going to be expected to tear apart the neutral zone, while Miro Heiskanen will be tasked with shutting down one or both of Kaprizov and Boldy. Those guys, likewise, are expected to drive the Wild’s attack.

But beyond those players, begin to ask yourself who else can meaningfully contribute to this series. Are guys like Justin Hryckowian and Colin Blackwell able to win their minutes, or will they be dragged into the antics of the Foligno brothers? How do Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell step up, especially if Heiskanen is not at 100%? Is Minnesota’s extremely deep defense able to contain Dallas’s cycle game? While we’ll wind up looking to the main characters when we try to determine why this series was won or lost, don’t overlook the other pieces that can change the momentum of a game and series with a single depth goal, a crucial drawn penalty, or a timely blocked shot.

Key 2: Jake Oettinger vs … Jesper Wallstedt?

In a series where a lot of the statistics are roughly equal, goaltending is actually one place in which a slight advantage arises. At least, that’s what I was going to write until I looked at the data and realized that Jake Oettinger’s end-of-season lock in managed to reduce the disparity by quite a bit.

We all know the storyline at this point. In 2022, Jake Oettinger put together the greatest playoff goaltending performance many of us will ever witness. He’s gotten a reputation as someone who can elevate his game at the right time, particularly in the first round. At the same time, he’s gotten his share of criticism, both justified and overtly harsh, for his consistency. He’s coming off of one of his rougher seasons, and people are wondering whether that’s going to be indicative of his performance in the playoffs (though again, he’s started to climb the goaltending rankings thanks to a good end to the year). To further muddy the waters, Oettinger seems to do quite well against his home-state’s team.3 We can’t really quantify this sort of psychological boost, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist!

On the other side of things, I expected to be writing about Filip Gustavsson, who I’d consider to be one of the most underrated netminders in the league. It seems that he’s been outplayed down the stretch by rookie Jesper Wallstedt, and John Hynes has named the “Wall of St. Paul” as the starter for Game 1. I’m definitely a Wallstedt believer, but I do find it quite intriguing that he has never been tapped to play the Dallas Stars outside of his NHL debut in the 2023-2024 season, in which he allowed 7 goals on 34 shots and tallied a -4.08 goals saved above expected.

At some level, I really don’t think that this piece of information is relevant. Wallstedt has had two years since then to grow as a goaltender, and by all accounts he has. But there’s still a feeling in the back of my mind that perhaps Minnesota, or Wallstedt himself, are worried about some sort of psychological factor against the Stars. You never forget your first NHL game. He’s still just a rookie after all, though it’s not like Jake Oettinger was much more experienced in 2022. This brief section is, admittedly, entirely speculation on my part, and it’s hard to say it has any impact on Wallstedt’s success this series.

In any case, Minnesota has decided to ride the hot hand, naming Wallstedt the starter for at least the first game. Gustavsson remains a solid option to go to if Wallstedt struggles, even if his latest outing against Dallas, as well as many of his final performances this year, were less than ideal. I do expect the Wild to rotate goalies as needed, something that Dallas could be capable of doing as well given how strong of a season Casey DeSmith has had. Minnesota gets the benefit of being able to do so with much less controversy involved.

I actually think that Minnesota’s goaltending will end up mattering a bit more to their success than Dallas’s, but only because the Wild’s team defense is less solid than that of the Stars. This actually creates a sort of double-edged sword: Dallas’s structure makes Oettinger’s job easier, in turn amplifying his rough performances, while Minnesota’s structure forces their netminders to do more consistently high-level work. The fact that both Wallstedt and Gustavsson are generally up to the task should be encouraging for Wild fans.

Key 3: Special Teams

One thing that I pointed out when diving into the Minnesota Wild’s numbers is how similarly they seem to profile to the Stars. They’re a better shot-generating team than Dallas, but still do not control play in that department at even strength. Their even-strength offense is slightly better than the Stars, while their even-strength defense is slightly worse. It all ends up cancelling out to a team that is in the same tier as the Stars in terms of their success at 5-on-5.

Just like the Stars, they get a major boost from their special teams. Minnesota’s power play is about as elite as Dallas’s, which takes away a huge potential X-Factor from the Stars. We’re going to see the number 2 and number 3 power plays in the NHL go toe to toe, because what else would you expect from this series?

Except, what if we weren’t? I’m here to tell you that Dallas’s power play is actually in a higher tier than that of the Wild, at least based on their processes. Dallas’s man advantage ranks third in the league in terms of Expected Goals per 60 Minutes at 8.68, whereas the Wild are all the way down at nineteenth (7.11 xG/60), at least according to MoneyPuck.4 Their penalty kills are far more comparable to one another, both in terms of processes and outcomes.

I think that this is one area where Dallas actually will be able to eek out an advantage, though it’s relying a bit on Minnesota’s shooters cooling off on the power play. We did see it reek havoc on the Stars in their last matchup, so don’t assume anything just yet Stars fans.

There are a lot of other variables to consider in this field. How frequently do penalties get called in this series? Are the Wild able to shutdown Wyatt Johnston’s historic power play heater? If so, does that open up the rest of Dallas’s personnel to be more dangerous? How healthy is Heiskanen going to be, and does the absence of Hintz further impact the man advantage in a negative way? I think that that first point is going to be especially interesting considering the amount of animosity that is being generated out of this series. Even the organizations are aware of it and look to be adding fuel to the fire. Do both teams take their fair share of penalties, or do we end up seeing something similar to what happened in 2023, in which the Wild lost their cool and ended up getting punished severely on the power play for it? For what it’s worth, the Wild draw more penalties per sixty minutes than the Stars do this year.

Key 4: Glen Gulutzan’s Moment

Just like at the beginning of the year, I find myself a bit anxious about Glen Gulutzan. I purposefully tempered my expectations heading into this season and was genuinely blown away by Gulutzan’s ability to keep this team elite while making some big shifts in the team’s identity.5 They’re much more defensively sound, which I think is a solid foundation to build a Stanley Cup Contender out of. I would still prefer that they control play more often than they do, and we’ve seen glimpses of it before, but for now we just have to work with what we’ve got.

My biggest concern with Gulutzan, at the time being, is his insistence on putting Sam Steel on the top line with Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen rather than Michael Bunting or even Justin Hryckowian. Both do significantly better than Steel and also allow for some more efficient combinations further down the lineup. I think that I’ve written this out before, but I’d really like to see something close to:

Bunting-Johnston-Rantanen (62.5 xG%)

Robertson-Duchene-Bourque (55.6 xG%)

Benn-Hryckowian-Steel (70.0 xG%)

Bäck-Faksa-Blackwell (53.3 xG%)

Beware of small sample sizes (such as with that third line), but this feels like a pretty solid forward group all things considered? It can get even better once Hintz becomes available, elevating the bottom nine to:

Robertson-Hintz-Bourque (67.2 xG%)

Benn-Duchene-Steel (52.8 xG%)

Hryckowian-Faksa-Blackwell (??? xG%)

Okay, so we haven’t actually seen Ritzy-Faksa-Blackwell together yet, but you’d have to imagine that they could be a threatening look against other teams’ fourth lines, right? Particularly against a Minnesota team that insists upon Foligno-McCarron-Foligno (45.5 xG%) as their bottom trio? I also think that Benn-Duchene-Steel will see an improvement in their numbers when they get to matchup against other third lines, rather than being forced to play in a top-six role like they were during much of their time together. If they succeeded then, think about how much more impressive the Unction will look against lower tier opponents.

I don’t purport to be smart enough to be an NHL coach. I can only say what the data shows and hope that Glen Gulutzan either a) follows it or b) is smarter than me and has access to information I don’t know about. Stars fans will have to lay their trust in Gully to find the right combinations, make the right adaptions, and implement the best strategies in order to win out in this series. A first-round exit really shouldn’t make his hiring a failure, but it will result in a ton of anger towards both he and Jim Nill if he fails to meet this moment.

Key 5: Momentum in A Game of Inches

If there’s one thing that should be clear from this preview, it’s that this series is going to be extremely tight. One underlying theme throughout these keys which we’ve discussed is the ability to control momentum, both within a single game and in the series as a whole. I think that this is most evident in the realm of special teams, but momentum shifts can also occur via a game-breaking play, massive save, and swapping around lines. Anything that can change the nature of the game, particularly in terms of the state it’s being played in, will be crucial to the ultimate conclusion of this series. Consider how the following shifts change the state of the game: going from 5-on-5 to 5-on-4, scoring a goal to take the lead, breaking up a dangerous cycle with a freeze, and creating new line matches after an intermission.

The usual suspects when momentum is discussed in the playoffs include things like the fans, home-ice advantage, big hits, the higher-intensity feel of a Game 7, etc. I don’t know that those things matter as much as these on-ice pieces. And so, when it comes down to it, I think that the team that is able to leverage momentum shifts more consistently and more frequently is going to be the team that comes out on top. Even more importantly, the team that is able to weather the opposition’s momentum shifts, in order to maintain dominance when the inevitable pushback occurs, is going to thrive.

Is it really fair to say that the fifth key is to possess the other four keys more often? Maybe I’m cheating a little bit here. But in a game of inches between two teams just as equally elite as the Stars and Wild are, it really is going to come down to which team has the slight edge in these other categories at any given point, and whether they can maintain that edge long enough to win the necessary four games.

Head or Tails?

This is one of the toughest series to predict in the entire bracket. Of matchups involving the Stars, it’s probably one of the most difficult I’ve ever personally tried to sort out. Even last year against the Avalanche wasn’t as bad, because it really did seem impossible that they’d overcome such a good team while missing both Robertson and Heiskanen. I was feeling the same way heading into drafting this article, until we got news that Miro Heiskanen was a full participant in practice and seemed to be feeling good afterwards. Being without Roope Hintz is certainly not ideal, and it’s not clear exactly how healthy Heiskanen actually is, but the Stars are in a better spot going into today’s matchup than they looked just 24 hours ago.

I’m left to consider all of these keys: the players and their roles, the goaltenders, special teams, Glen Gulutzan’s coaching, and the ability to control momentum. I’d like to say each category cleanly belongs to one team or the other. I’d like to look at the other aspects of these two clubs and find the one secret X-Factor that fully explains how the Stars or Wild are going to win this series. The aspect I’m looking for just doesn’t exist. This series is a total coin flip. A pure 50/50 in which either outcome could happen and you wouldn’t bat an eye. A series where one fortunate bounce could make or break the entire season for these teams.

So when the time comes, and the coin is hurtling through the air, end over end, what’s your call? Heads, or tails? In my experience, there’s really no rhyme or reason to what you say. You’ve got just a few seconds to decide before the coin has landed square in your friend’s palm and the winning side is revealed to an outcry of approval or disappointment.

I’m a Stars fan through and through. That’s been true even when I’ve doubted them or believed wholeheartedly that it was their year. It’s an inseparable part of my identity that will never change, no matter how objective my analysis seeks to be. Well, I’ve done the objective analysis, and I’ve come up short. I don’t know who is going to win this series. I don’t know whether to call heads or tails.

And for that reason, I just have to go with the primordial gut feeling that’s telling me that this series was always Stars in 7. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But at least I’ll always have those 10 seconds between the coinflip and the result, where time was slow, and I could do nothing but anxiously await confirmation that my gut got it right.

Let’s enjoy the ride Stars fans. Win or lose, this is going to be one to remember.

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Bad teams make the playoffs. Good teams miss the playoffs. It’s the reality of the NHL, especially with the Divisional format they’ve used for quite some time now. On the surface, Los Angeles would be considered a bad team. Like a few clubs in the Pacific Division, they’re a ways below some of the squads that missed the playoffs in the East. When we take a look at what this team is beyond the point totals, we find a club that is a bit more complicated than meets the eye. Do they have what it takes to pull off the shocking upset against the Presidents’ Trophy Winners? No, probably not, but we’re still going to talk about them!

How it Went: The Kings are Up to Something

For all of the (justified) criticism the Kings have got this year as “overtime merchants,” their game is actually a lot more nuanced than you’d think. This really isn’t that bad of a team, at least on the processes level. They’re top-eight in both 5-on-5 expected-goal share and shot-attempts share, ranking higher than teams like Edmonton, Minnesota, and Dallas, just to name a few. They’re not generating looks from the most dangerous parts of the ice, but they are generating chances in general.

As we’ve come to expect with the L.A. Kings, they are quite good at suppressing opportunities against. They’ve been known as one of the stronger defensive teams in the league for some time now, and this year is no different. This is what helps bump up that expected-goal share; it’s easier to out produce your opponent when you lock down your own zone.

I was going to write about their goaltending in the “Lingering Worries” section, but their “backup” netminder Anton Forsberg is actually having a really solid year. He ranks top twenty in goals saved above expected, and looks stronger on the season than starter Darcy Kuemper. Louis Boulet’s steals/choke model has Forsberg ranked as the best backup goalie, with 9 stolen games! Could he find a way to steal a series for the Kings, especially if their outcomes start to catch up to their processes?

Lingering Worries: They Can’t Shoot! And Other Problems

Similarly to their in-state rivals the Anaheim Ducks, the Kings are having a serious finishing problem. They’re rocking the worst shooting percentage of any playoff team, comparable to teams like New Jersey and Vancouver and fairly below the league average. This is just rough.

Unlike some of the other unlucky teams we’ve discussed, their save percentage isn’t too bad. I think that does leave them with a good case for positive regression, especially if they continue to out chance their opponents in the shot-quality battle. L.A. might be dangerous if they can start to find the back of the net.

With how few regulation wins this club has, the second fewest in the league to be exact, you have to wonder if they’ll be able to win in the playoffs where only normal hockey is played (no minigames). While a positive regression on the shooting side of things seems plausible, one area that does not look likely to improve is special teams. Their power play is one of the worst in the league no matter how you slice it. Their penalty kill isn’t much better. When you think about what could negate this team’s success at even strength, it’s going to be the ability of other teams to break through away from 5-on-5 play.

What We Thought: A Tough Team to Predict

I predicted Los Angeles to enter the playoffs as the lowest ranking playoff team. Indeed, that is the case, as they finished the season in 20th place by point totals. I don’t think they’re the worst team in the playoffs, but they are almost certainly going to be a feast for Colorado barring some sort of miracle. Most models actually had the Kings finishing pretty high in the Western Conference standings, somewhere within the second tier of that portion of the league (near clubs like Winnipeg, Minnesota, and Utah).

I do wonder how different this season would have been with a different coach. How many more first round exits does L.A. accept, especially as they inch deeper and deeper into the real limbo of the NHL? Being stuck around 20th to 12th in perpetuity is certainly a rough existence.

The Road to Glory: Just Get Swept and Rethink Everything

Well that’s not very helpful advice. I don’t know what else there is to say though. Don’t get me wrong, I think that there could be something here, especially with their even strength numbers, but everything else is screaming that this team has no hope. Acquiring Artemi Panarin, though presented as a sort of premier deadline move, reads more as wanting to get ahead of the market for the offseason. I think that Los Angeles would most benefit from some sort of rapid retool, not that doing so through free agency alone has been too successful for any team in the past. And based on the Panarin move, I think that the team knows that too. Like I said earlier, the Kings are in the limbo of the NHL, and something has to change in order for this team to reach Contender status.

Could they pull off the upset against Colorado? I suppose theoretically, yes, but we’re talking about a Dr. Strange 1 in 14,000,605 universes scenario. They’d need their shooting percentage to rebound hard, Forsberg to steal the series in net, Colorado to have the worst puck luck in the world, and perhaps even need some of the Avalanche’s best player to miss most of the series.1 I want to believe in the Kings and their even-strength numbers, but they’ve given me little reason to do so.

If you’re going to lose to Colorado anyways, I think that it’s better to get swept and see some changes to your coaching staff than it would be to push the series to six or seven games and sell yourself on the lie that you were “close” to knocking out the best team in the NHL. With all that being said, as a Stars fan, I am pretty much obligated to be rooting for you in this series, Los Angeles. Long live the Kings!

I’m a sucker for a good rhyming title. Substitute a different word for “plucked” and it still works to aptly describe Anaheim’s situation. They’ve got a really interesting process at play, one that is extremely fun to watch even if it’s not the best possible style for postseason success. Their youth is leading the way, which is no surprise given that this team is starting to emerge from the rebuild stage. Through it all though, we find that this team has a serious PDO problem.1 Let’s explore why I think that their style could be contributing in part to this bad luck, and see what it all means for their playoff run this year.

How it Went: Decent Processes and Overtime Points

The Anaheim Ducks are… intriguing. On the surface, you’ve got to be excited about this young team taking that next step and finally emerging from their rebuild into a playoff spot. They’ve been somewhat solid in terms of processes, boasting good numbers in both the expected-goal and shot-attempt share departments. Similarly to the Utah Mammoth, they like to leverage their speed to punish opposing clubs with a dangerous rush attack.

The Ducks are min-maxing a bit here, leaving their goalies out to dry in their own end. This might be one of the worst defensive shot maps that we’ve covered thus far. There’s a reason that you can find them leading the way in the “fun” category of the NHL.2

Is this ideal? Probably not. This style of play simultaneously explains why they lost so many games in regulation and had to collect so many wins past sixty minutes. They went 9-6 in 3-on-3 overtime, a setting that they should have a slight edge in as a team that loves the rush. To top it all off, they went 8-0 in the shootout, which was absolutely critical to their ability to make the playoffs. I guess they better plan on drawing a lot of penalty shots if they want that skill to translate over.

Lingering Worries: Making Your Own Luck?

One thing that stands out almost immediately when looking at this team’s numbers is just how bad their puck luck has been. They’ve got the worst PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) out of all of the teams in the playoffs, even when you factor in the power play and penalty kill. Their goaltending in particular has struggled to save shots from just about everywhere in the defensive zone.

When you consider how the team defends, it’s not like they’re making their netminders’ lives easier. Still, not one of the goaltenders they used this season has a positive goals-saved above expected. Despite his pedigree, their starter Lukáš Dostál has had a rough season, even when accounting for the general dip in goaltending we saw across the league.

Special teams aren’t in a much better spot. Their power play should be middle-of-the-road and is instead closer to the bottom quarter of the league. Their already-meh penalty kill is being dragged down further by the goaltending problem. If it’s any consolation, they’re among the best short-handed threats in the league!

Suffice it to say, we’re talking about another team in desperate need for some positive regression. I think that the Ducks would most immediately benefit from an improvement in their goaltending, in order to help shore up their defensive woes at both even strength and on the penalty kill. That’ll be especially important in a matchup with the Edmonton Oilers, but I’m not trying to spoil my predictions article. They’ve actually got their share of sharpshooters in young guys like Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, and Beckett Sennecke. How long will they be able to outscore their problems, and can they find a way to improve their defense even just a bit in order to give Dostál a fighting chance against the best player in the world?

What We Thought: Mixed Bag

Opinions on the Ducks were all over the place, but a lot of folks had them finishing near the bottom of the Conference/NHL once again. Not me though! I had them: definitively mid tier. They’re sitting at 18th place at the time of writing, while I predicted them to finish 19th in the league at the beginning of the season. The only thing I couldn’t have guessed was that the 18th best team in the league would find a way into the playoffs. Thank you Pacific Division for helping to cause such intense discourse this season!

The Road to Glory: Get Lucky and Have Fun

As we’ve worked our way through the playoff teams, I hope that it’s been somewhat clear which teams I think could make a run for the Stanley Cup, and which are just here to have some fun. It’s not to say that cinderella runs don’t happen. It’s just showcasing to you why certain teams qualify for that term in the first place. I do think that Anaheim has some genuine strengths to leverage, but a lot of it will come down to whether their goaltending gets it together. The only downside for the Ducks is that they’re simply not as strong as some of the other teams being plagued by brutal netminding. They may be getting dragged down from their ceiling, but how high was that ceiling in the first place?

The good news is that Anaheim is another one of those teams that is freshly emerging from their rebuild, and therefore not a club that absolutely needs to win the Cup this year. They’ll give it everything they got, bringing some good experience to their players and some hope to their fans. As a Stars fan, I do yearn a bit for a playoff run with limited expectations, so I’d say to enjoy it while it lasts Ducks fans!3 This team has a really bright future ahead of them, and I’m excited to see how the youth that has driven the team’s success all year performs when the lights are the brightest and the games get most intense.

Every so often, you see a “rebuilding” team surprise everyone and make the playoffs. Sometimes it’s representative of them exiting one phase of the contention window and taking that step into the next. In other cases, it’s a brief glimpse at a brighter future that still needs a few more years to come to fruition. I think that this latter case is what we could be seeing out of the Philadelphia Flyers this year. There’s nothing wrong with that in my book. It should give their players and fans alike a fantastic experience that will only make them hunger for more. While I entered this article expecting to write off Philly entirely, I was genuinely surprised by what I found when I checked under the hood. This team’s style of play has the potential to thrive in the playoffs, but do they have everything that they need to realize it?

How it Went: A Sort of “Dallas-Lite”

I don’t mean to offend any Philadelphia fans by equating their team to one from Dallas, Texas, but it’s an apt comparison!1 Rick Tocchet has brought his model of play to the Flyers, and it seems to have resulted in some success. Like the Stars, they don’t generate a ton of opportunities and yet still win the expected-goals battle at even strength.

One thing that stands out when comparing these two teams is Dallas’s ability to convert on their chances and to stop the opportunities against. Philadelphia has slightly worse shooting and save percentages than the Stars, which helps fit the description of a “Dallas-lite.” Their defensive structure is remarkably solid though!

We’ve seen how this style of game can be successful. Does that mean that the Flyers are ready to go on the greatest cinderella run of all time? Well…

Lingering Worries: The Missing Pieces

If your goal is to have nothing happen at even strength (which is what Philadelphia does) then you’re going to need to make a difference at special teams. Unfortunately for the Flyers, they’ve not gotten the result they’d like from this department. Let’s start with the power place, since that’s where most of the goal scoring is going to happen for a team that seeks out “low event” hockey during 5-on-5 play.2

The power play ranks as the worst in the NHL. In fairness, this seems to be a luck thing more than anything, which is a good sign for the Flyers. If there was ever a time for positive regression to hit, it would be now. They’re generating looks from the right places, but just can’t seem to get them to the back of the net.

Similarly, their penalty kill seems like it should be better than it is. This is likely a case of goaltending causing them problems, which is intriguing given that Dan Vladar has had a rather strong season (top-ten in goals saved above expected). Sure enough, Philly’s netminders have a bottom-ten save percentage on the penalty kill, which explains why their outcomes aren’t matching their performance in this department.

Special-teams success has eluded Philly all season. A team with their style of play really needs this side of the game to come through for them, otherwise it’s going to be an absolute dogfight every single matchup. While they should be due for a regression at some point, the concern is that they won’t get it in time to put a run together. I wonder if, at some level, it could be a personnel problem. None of their forwards grade out as very elite shooters, at least not this season.

What We Thought: Pennsylvania, What Are You Cooking?

I do feel like the Flyers have routinely found a way to overperform expectations over the last few years. This is a team that is still in the midst of a crucial rebuild/retool. They shouldn’t be making the playoffs, and yet they’ve put on a solid performance to help beat out a lot of other competitors in the East. Everyone had them at the bottom of the standings, including me. Instead, we’re getting the Battle of Pennsylvania in the first round. Just like their in-state rivals, they’ve got all the leeway in the world to gloat about this, at least until the playoff games start.

The Road to Glory: Keep Calm and Pray for Regression

I really don’t know that Philly has what it takes to go far this year, but if I believe in Dallas’s system then I’ve got to at least give the Flyers a look. At the end of the day, they’re going to need some puck luck to come through for them. Whether that means having a forward or two go on a bit of a heater, or simply needing Dan Vladar to lock in on the PK, something has to go right for them. Their ability to control play is going to be crucial as well. If we get to a point where Philly’s structure has begun to break down and their opponents are the ones dictating play, then things could get really bad for the Flyers.

There’s some good news underlying all of this, though, which is that the Flyers don’t need to win the Cup this year. They’ve got plenty of time to continue to bring in young talent and build themselves into a genuine contender. For all the hate he’s gotten, including from his own coach, I do think that Matvei Michkov has the potential to be superstar in the league. Trevor Zegras seems to have found some new life now that he’s out of Anaheim. The older guard (Tippett and Konecny) still has some good years ahead of them. The very early returns on Porter Martone are looking incredible as well.

All this is to say that this is one of those instances in which a team and fanbase can just enjoy the ride. It’s hard to say whether the Flyers are ready for playoffs to be a consistent thing, but this is certainly a step in the right direction. Philadelphia is ahead of schedule. There’s never a penalty for turning your work in early though.