ICYMI O/N - September 1st, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:59:07 GMT

IRAN:

Two oil supertankers were struck by unknown projectiles in quick succession while transiting the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, maritime security consultant Marisks said. (BBG)

Iran's President Pezeshkian said Tehran will immediately reciprocate if the US returns to its commitments under the Islamabad MoU signed in June. (Al Jazeera)

Iran has sufficient foreign currency reserves despite U.S. sanctions, Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said on Tuesday. The central bank was ready to inject up to $2 billion into the foreign exchange market to calm recent volatility, Hemmati said. (RTRS)

The Revolutionary Guards would confront vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz without coordination, said a member of Iran parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee on Tuesday. (Iran International)

The number of vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz was little changed on Monday compared with the weekend, hovering around five, preliminary ship-tracking data showed on Tuesday, below the 10-day average of around 14. (RTRS)

US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is stepping down after repeated clashes with his boss, Pete Hegseth, leaving the service without several top leaders even as the conflict with Iran continues. (BBG)

The U.S. airstrikes against Iran overnight Monday targeted two Iranian rocket launchers that the military said could have dispensed small naval mines. But such a weapon — an artillery rocket that releases a mine into the water — would be unusual and could mean that Iran has created yet another way to potentially cause chaos in the Strait of Hormuz. (NYT)

China’s hunt to replace lost Persian Gulf oil is driving up prices of Russian crude that loads on the country’s Pacific coast, leaving independent refiners struggling with higher costs. The smaller private refiners, known as teapots, are being priced out of the market and are seeking oil from farther afield, including Argentina, Brazil, and Canada. (BBG)

The crisis created by the Iran conflict in the supply of refined fuels in Asia continued in August, with the top-consuming region's imports dropping to the lowest point since the war started. (RTRS)

India’s LNG imports jumped in August to the highest in nearly six years, defying higher spot prices as fertilizer and fuel distributors sought to replace shipments disrupted by the Iran war. (BBG)

Russia has almost doubled the fleet of tankers ferrying liquefied natural gas from its US-sanctioned Arctic project in less than a year, as the country pushes to boost lucrative exports of the super-chilled fuel in spite of Western restrictions. (BBG)

MACRO:

Global bond yields climbed back to the highest level in almost two decades as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and investors ramped up expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. (BBG)

Not since 2006 have yields on the longest-maturity Treasuries been this high for this long, with a gaping budget deficit, another wave of corporate issuance and a potentially decisive Federal Reserve meeting set to keep investors wary of US debt in coming weeks. (BBG)

JPMorgan Strategists are bullish global stocks into year-end. The strategists note strong economic activity momentum, earnings tailwinds and contained bond markets are keeping them bullish. (BBG)

Anthropic said it resumed external cybersecurity testing of AI models after deploying new safeguards, following incidents last month in which Claude models accessed the internet and hacked into other systems during security evaluations. (RTRS)

Motiva and Exxon Mobil are preparing their East Texas refineries for high winds and possible flooding as a developing tropical storm nears the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

U.S. oil company North American Blue Energy Partners will take over some oilfields previously controlled by five Chinese companies and a Russian firm in Venezuela, according to officials cited by Reuters. The takeover will be part of a sweeping oil production agreement that President Donald Trump announced with Venezuela. (RTRS)

The billions of dollars being borrowed to fund data centers in Asia are pushing banks to their limits and making them more selective about which projects to finance, according to senior bankers at Barclays Plc. (BBG)

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield touched 3% for the first time this century, an important milestone for a debt market that is returning to normality after benchmark borrowing costs languished near zero for years. (BBG)

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ramped up pressure on Japan to take its next steps on policy amid renewed weakness in the yen and rising bond yields, with speculation simmering over the likelihood of a central bank rate hike in September. (BBG)

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday she met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and agreed that orderly yen movement is critical for global market stability. (RTRS)

Japanese companies increased their pace ‌of spending on plant and equipment in April-June, a sign of business confidence that couldprompt an upgrade to the economic growth outlook and support the case for near-term rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. (RTRS)

China's manufacturing sector expanded at a faster pace in August as output, new orders and exports all accelerated, a private-sector survey showed on Tuesday. (RTRS)

Chinese regulators issued new guidelines for automakers' overseas operations, calling on companies to comply with laws governing outbound investment and overseas business activities, while strengthening anti-monopoly, anti-corruption and social responsibility compliance. (RTRS)

China’s relentless drive to keep the yuan stable is crippling activity in the offshore currency derivatives market, depriving foreign investors of trading opportunities and leaving them exposed should volatility return. (BBG)

South Korea unveiled its most aggressive fiscal spending plan on record, setting total government expenditure for 2027 at 821 trillion won ($596.92 billion) to strengthen the country's technological edge amid the global AI race. The spending plan represented a 12.8% rise from 2026, marking the largest year-on-year increase on record. (RTRS)

South Korea plans to issue a near-record 222.8 trillion won ($162.7 billion) of bonds in 2027 as President Lee Jae Myung pushes his expansionary fiscal agenda. (BBG)

South Korea’s semiconductor-led export surge extended into August at a stronger-than-expected pace, showing few signs that artificial-intelligence-driven demand for chips is cooling. (WSJ)

Kim Yong-beom, the South Korean presidential adviser who backed the introduction of leveraged single-stock ETFs and floated the idea of a “citizen dividend” funded by excess tax revenue from the AI boom, has stepped down as the government tries to shore up its sinking approval ratings. (BBG)

Bitcoin is again trading at a premium in South Korea, after a rally in token prices reignited risk appetite in one of crypto’s most closely watched retail markets. (BBG)

Australia’s Northern Territory started commercial production from the nation’s first shale gas wells, as a debate rages between the sparsely populated region and the federal government on whether fossil fuels should be used to power a wave of data centers. (BBG)

The London Stock Exchange is working with the owner of crypto venue Kraken to launch tokenised stocks on its new night-time trading venue, as it pushes further into digital markets. (FT)

Prices in British shops rose at the fastest rate in more than two years last month, as the fallout from the Middle East conflict started to filter through to supermarket shelves. (BBG)

British house prices rose in August, according to data from mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society on Tuesday that suggested demand held up despite an uncertain economic outlook and the impact of the war in Iran. (RTRS)

ECB's Rehn said the Bank must prepare for an extended “conflict of attrition” in the Middle East that could keep inflation elevated in the Eurozone. “We must show no complacency in the face of these inflationary pressures,” Rehn told the FT in an interview. (FT)

Italy's manufacturing activity contracted in August for the first time in seven months, a survey showed on Tuesday, while cost pressures continued to ease. (RTRS)

Spain's manufacturing activity slipped back into contraction in August as output and new orders declined amid stagnant demand and rising energy prices, a business survey showed on Tuesday. (RTRS)

France started imposing penalties on the extreme end of fast fashion on Tuesday to try to curb a surge in sales of cheap clothing sold by e-commerce sites including Shein and Temu. (RTRS)

India’s long-awaited private investment cycle may finally be stirring, adding another engine of growth that could help the world’s fastest-growing major economy sustain its momentum after years of heavy lifting by the government. (BBG)

India is preparing a framework that would let AI agents make small digital payments without approval for every transaction, according to Reuters sources, potentially making UPI one of the world's largest networks with agentic payments.

GEOPOLITICAL:

Russia attacked Ukraine's port infrastructure and a border crossing with Romania in the southern Black Sea region of Odesa overnight, Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday. (RTRS)

North Korea and the United States are showing signs of resuming dialogue, a South Korean lawmaker said on Tuesday after being briefed by Seoul's intelligence agency. (RTRS)

EQUITIES:

OpenAI denied Apple's allegations of trade secret theft on Monday, saying the iPhone maker failed to show any confidential information was stolen by former employees. (RTRS)

Anthropic has signed a cloud-computing deal worth $35 billion with Nvidia-backed cloud provider Lambda, with Nvidia itself holding the lease on the data center, according to WSJ sources. The data center is being developed by Hut 8, a bitcoin miner and data-center developer, in Nueces County, Texas. (WSJ)

OpenAI denied Apple's allegations of trade secret theft on Monday, saying the iPhone maker failed to show any confidential information was stolen by former employees.

UPS is changing its operating model to standardize key operational processes across geographies and leverage its global footprint. The company named Nando Cesarone, the president of its U.S. operations, to lead the new model as chief global operations officer. (WSJ)

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, is offering customers access to options tied to more than 1,000 US stocks and exchange-traded funds through a partnership. (BBG)

Fast-fashion giant Shein slid in its long-awaited trading debut, as regulatory headwinds and slowing sales challenge a company once valued at US$100 billion. Shares fell as low as 43.72 Hong Kong dollars on Tuesday before regaining some ground to trade at HK$44.50, implying a market capitalization of around US$24 billion. (WSJ)

WPP is cutting up to 1,000 more jobs by year-end as Britain's ‌biggest advertising group accelerates a restructuring programme under new chief Cindy Rose, according to FT sources. (FT)

Novartis paused eight clinical trials of an experimental therapy targeting autoimmune and neurological disorders in late August, after three patients died. (WSJ)

Ikea is cutting prices by €1.2bn in Europe this year on some of its most popular products such as Billy bookshelves and Kallax storage units, as the flat-pack furniture retailer seeks to counter the cost of living crisis by taking a hit to its profits. (FT)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

Australian Building Permits M/M Prelim. (Jul) -3.6% vs. Exp. -4.8% (Prev. 7.2%)
Australian Building Permits Y/Y Prelim. (Jul) 9.0% (Prev. 8.9%)
Australian Current Account (Q2) -27.2B vs. Exp. -30B (Prev. -27.1B)
Australian Net Exports Contribution to GDP (Q2) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.8%)
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 52.0 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 52.0)
Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.5 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 50.9)
Dutch CPI Y/Y (Aug) 3.3% (Prev. 3.2%)
Dutch Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 53.8 (Prev. 54.4)
Dutch Retail Sales Y/Y (Jul) 2.8% (Prev. 2.9%)
EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 51.9)
French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 51.1 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 49.8)
German Retail Sales M/M (Jul) -3.4% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -1.1%)
German Retail Sales Y/Y (Jul) -2.5% (Prev. -0.2%)
German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 54.3 vs. Exp. 54.1 (Prev. 52.2)
Indian HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 52.8 vs. Exp. 52.9 (Prev. 53.5)
Indonesian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.8 (Prev. 50.2)
Irish AIB Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 55.4 (Prev. 55.1)
Italian GDP Q/Q Final (Q2) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%)
Italian GDP Y/Y Final (Q2) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.8%)
Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.6 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.3)
Italian Unemployment Rate (Jul) 5.8% vs. Exp. 5.8% (Prev. 5.8%)
Japanese Consumer Confidence (Aug) 35.5 vs. Exp. 35.0 (Prev. 34.9)
Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 54.9 vs. Exp. 55.1 (Prev. 55.1)
Malaysian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 50.2 (Prev. 50.7)
Philippine S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.9 (Prev. 51.8)
Polish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 48.3 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.0)
South Korean S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 52.3 (Prev. 53.1)
Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.5 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.2)
Swedish Swedbank Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 56.1 (Prev. 55.7)
Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 57.1 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 53.2)
Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.7 (Prev. 55.1)
Thai S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 53.8 (Prev. 54.2)
Turkish Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 48.1 (Prev. 47.7)
UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (Aug) 1.5% (Prev. 0.9%)
UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 51.7 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.9)

ICYMI O/N - August 28th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 08:56:01 GMT

IRAN:

Iran is preparing a list of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz after mediators asked Tehran to set them out, said Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, adding that ending the regional war was among them. Ships could use a designated central channel in the Strait if the U.S. met Iran's conditions. (RTRS)

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said putting diplomacy back on track was not impossible but hinged on the US understanding that pressure does not work. Araqchi said he had held what he described as "creative discussions" with Qatar’s PM and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, adding that Washington should build trust, speak respectfully, acknowledge Iran’s rights and uphold its commitments. (X)

Esmail Kosari, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Commission said any agreement with Oman is contingent on the lifting of the naval blockade. Otherwise, the strait will remain blocked and aggressive measures will be taken anywhere. He said US messages have reached us through Oman, Qatar and Pakistan, but the Islamic Republic will enter the operational phase only after implementing some clauses of the understanding. (Iran International)

Goldman Sachs says oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war’s impact on global crude prices. Total exports of crude and oil products from the region have risen to 15-16mln barrels a day, helped by higher crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, citing a rise in dark crossings and ship-to-ship transfers. (BBG)

Tanker risk remains in the Persian Gulf, but Asian buyers are getting more comfortable with increased barrels being offered outside the Strait of Hormuz, Aaron Kildow, analyst at Sparta Commodities said in a note. The Persian Gulf producers are taking on Hormuz risk by offering barrels/tenders south of the strait; the new strategy seems to be attracting buyers. (BBG)

US Central Command announced it has successfully cleared sea mines in international shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. The sea mines were laid months ago by Iran, it said, adding that no ships have entered or left an Iranian port without US permission. (X)

Six months after the airstrikes that began the war and propelled a badly wounded Mojtaba Khamenei into the role of Iran's supreme leader, he remains entirely unseen and unheard by Iranians — a vacuum at the heart of his country's leadership. Questions over his condition and role are growing increasingly fraught. (RTRS)

Seven commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from 17 a day earlier and below the 10-day average of 15, preliminary shipping data showed on Friday. (RTRS)

QatarEnergy has sold at least 7 million barrels of various Qatari crude grades via a tender this week for loading in October, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

Qatar extended force majeure on LNG supplies to European and Asian buyers by another month as uncertainty over the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz clouds prospects for restoring Persian Gulf energy flows. (BBG)

Saudi Aramco has informed some regular customers in Asia it won’t supply propane in the first half of 2027 because of maintenance, potentially complicating trade in other liquefied petroleum gases. (BBG)

MACRO:

Federal Chair Warsh will address an audience of international economists and central bankers on Friday (10am ET), with investors globally watching for him to offer more details about the economy, recent volatility in bond markets, and the risks facing the U.S. and global outlooks. (RTRS)

A chorus of investors is urging Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to express a strong determination to deal with high inflation to boost the long end of the Treasury market. Fed watchers at JPMorgan, Apollo and Morgan Stanley say Warsh has a chance to convince the market that managing inflation is his priority. (BBG)

A U.S. judge blocked the Pentagon's blacklisting of Anthropic, the latest turn in the Claude maker's high-stakes fight with the military over AI safety on the battlefield. (RTRS)

U.S. companies with close ties to President Trump are preparing for potential investigations if Democrats win control of the House. To strengthen relations with Democrats, companies like Meta are donating to Democratic political committees, while others are hiring Democratic aides. (WSJ)

The Trump administration for now can’t move forward with rules upending mail-in voting procedures ahead of midterm elections, a federal judge ruled Thursday, a new chapter in what is likely to be fast-moving litigation. (WSJ)

Citadel Securities posted a record $7.3 billion of trading revenue for the second quarter, more than triple the level from the same period a year earlier. The company's results benefitted from its foray into high-touch equities, handling equity block trades for hedge funds, asset managers and pensions. (BBG)

Citigroup strategists expect oil prices and the US labor market to soften, weighing on the dollar and relieving pressure on long-end yields. “The release valve will move to FX,” strategists led by Adam Pickett write in a note. (BBG)

PIMCO has said the flood of debt financing for AI capital expenditures is causing “indigestion” in fixed-income markets and fueling yields, but that dynamic should result in decent longer-term returns for investors, noting current bond yields offer a “compelling entry point for long-term investors”. (BBG)

Global issuance of zero-interest convertible bonds is on track for a record year, as AI companies attract eager investors willing to forgo coupon payments in exchange for exposure to the fast-growing sector. (FT)

Annual core inflation in Tokyo accelerated in August for the third straight month, data showed on Friday, a sign of broadening price pressures that bolsters the case for an interest rate hike as soon as next month. (RTRS)

Japan's government aims to keep new government bond issuance to around 40 trillion yen ($251 billion) for the fiscal 2027 budget, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in an interview with the Yomiuri newspaper, that would be far larger than 32.7 trillion yen new debt issuance planned for the current fiscal 2026 budget, although Bloomberg cites a Japan analyst suggesting markets would not see that as a major loosening of fiscal policy. (RTRS/BBG)

Japan’s two-year government bond auction Friday saw weaker demand as investors turned cautious ahead of an expected hike at next month’s Bank of Japan meeting. (BBG)

Nippon Life Insurance Co., Japan’s largest life insurer, said it is open to becoming a net buyer of government bonds next fiscal year as it finds current interest rates attractive. (BBG)

Japan’s financial regulator is increasing scrutiny of ultra-long mortgage lending by online banks and others as the country’s housing market booms, according to a Financial Services Agency official. (BBG)

Shanghai plans subsidies for offshore issuers selling bonds and measures to deepen debt investment as part of a renewed push to turn a long-dormant market in the city's free trade zone into a global funding hub, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

UK Chancellor Healey could suffer a hit of several billion pounds to the public finances as lower immigration forecasts dent the outlook for economic growth, analysts have warned ahead of his first Budget in October. (FT)

UK Chancellor Healey will shelve his own target of spending 3 per cent of Britain’s GDP on defence by 2030 when he presents his first Budget in October, with tough decisions on how to fund the military pushed down the track. (FT)

British businesses turned the most confident since March this month, according to the Lloyds survey. bolstered by a rosier view of the economy, echoing other signs of an improving outlook.(RTRS)

ECB's Kazaks has said the ECB can’t let elevated gains in consumer prices persist, “One way to reduce that inflation taking root is to raise interest rates. We’ve done that once.” (BBG)

The number of unemployed people in Germany rose slightly less than expected in August, labour office figures showed on Friday. In seasonally adjusted terms, the jobless figure grew by 4,000 to 2.996 million, while analysts polled by Reuters had predicted an increase of 5,000. (RTRS)

German industry is increasing pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz to take a tougher line with Beijing, with companies calling for stronger action to address what they describe as unfair competition from Chinese rivals. (RTRS)

Germany's chemical industry saw a sharp improvement in business sentiment in August, with companies turning positive on current conditions for the first time in four years, though the rebound remains heavily dependent on global supply disruptions, the Ifo institute said on Friday. (RTRS)

Spanish inflation surged to more than double the European Central Bank’s 2% target while France’s reading exceeded expectations, strengthening the case for an increase in interest rates next month. (BBG)

France’s economy unexpectedly failed to grow in the first half, only narrowly avoiding recession and undermining the government’s effort to get a grip on public finances. (BBG)

Sweden’s wealthy are weighing options to protect their assets — and even exit the country — as proposals for new taxes on large fortunes gain momentum before next month’s general elections. (BBG)

Vietnamese leaders have urged U.S. chip designer Qualcomm and South Korea's Samsung Electronics to expand their investment in AI, semiconductors and research and development as the country seeks to become a regional innovation hub. (RTRS)

Thailand’s central bank governor said restrictions on gold trading have weakened the metal’s influence on the baht and could be tightened further, as authorities step up scrutiny of the market for signs of illicit money flows. (BBG)

GEOPOLITICAL:

CIA Director John Ratcliffe's mysterious trip to Moscow this week was preceded by fresh U.S. intelligence indicating that the Kremlin sees the US as weakened by the Iran war, offering Russia an opportunity to escalate action against American interests and allies in Europe, according to Washington Post sources. (WaPo)

Venezuela is closely examining plans to leave OPEC, according to Bloomberg sources, coming amid the US holding talks with Venezuela's leaders to take a large stake in its oil fields. (BBG)

European Nato allies have begun responding to a controversial US questionnaire that some capitals see as a test of their allegiance to the Trump administration’s reshaping of the transatlantic alliance. (FT)

A senior Chinese diplomat told a group of Japanese lawmakers that history and Taiwan are at the center of tensions between the nations, saying Tokyo needed to take “concrete actions” for them to improve. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

Nvidia paused some deals in a new financing initiative that offered credit support to AI cloud providers in exchange for a share of revenue, WSJ reports citing sources. Some Nvidia employees expressed concern that the program could draw antitrust scrutiny and limit how its customers do business. (WSJ)

Nvidia's decision to backstop a data centre project by OpenAI for less than of the orginal amount it had orginally discussed was driven by CFO Colette Kress, WSJ reports, driven by concerns about the negative investor reaction to reports that Nvidia was in talks to financially guarantee a project expected to cost more than $500 billion. (WSJ)

Marvell lifted its guidance for the current and upcoming fiscal years after artificial-intelligence demand boosted profit and revenue in the fiscal second quarter. (WSJ)

Workday reported a higher profit and rising revenue in the fiscal second quarter, driven by growing adoption of its artificial-intelligence agents. (WSJ)

Shares of Gap rallied after the apparel company brought in a retail veteran to help boost flagging sales at its Old Navy brand. (WSJ)

OpenAI has hired a longtime Meta Platforms Inc. executive to lead Southeast Asia and Australia as it aims to tap growth across markets that are home to more than 600 million people. (BBG)

Korean media reported that SK hynix’s NAND flash business continues to struggle to narrow the productivity gap with Samsung Electronics and other competitors, as it lags in transitioning older production lines to newer process generations. (Chosun via @jukan05)

SoftBank is seeking a $10 billion loan, as it looks for more funding to help refinance debt used for its investment in US tech giant OpenAI, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

Tencent released a foundation model it says outperforms rivals Z.AI Co. and Moonshot AI in internal tests, claiming a place among China’s top artificial intelligence players. (BBG)

EssilorLuxottica plans to buy back more than €800 million of stock, seeking to bolster investor confidence after a slide in its shares and the exit of an heir of the eyewear maker’s founder from his management roles. (BBG)

Italy’s Assicurazioni Generali said it is willing to consider a $10.2 billion takeover offer for private bank Banca Generali from rival Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the latest attempt at consolidation in the country’s banking sector. (WSJ)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

French CPI M/M Prelim. (Aug) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
French CPI Y/Y Prelim. (Aug) 2.4% (Prev. 2.1%)
French GDP Q/Q Final (Q2) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
French GDP Y/Y Final (Q2) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.9%)
German Unemployment Rate (Aug) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.4%)
Japanese Tokyo Core CPI Y/Y (Aug) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.7%)
Japanese Tokyo CPI ex-Food & Energy Y/Y (Aug) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.0%)
Japanese Tokyo CPI Y/Y (Aug) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.8%)
Japanese Tokyo Unemployment Rate (Jul) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%)
Norwegian Retail Sales M/M (Jul) -0.7% (Prev. 1.8%)
Philippine Trade Balance (Jul) -5.973B (Prev. -4.939B)
Spanish Core CPI Y/Y Prelim. (Aug) 2.9% (Prev. 3.0%)
Spanish CPI M/M Prelim. (Aug) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.3%)
Spanish CPI Y/Y Prelim. (Aug) 4.3% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 3.6%)
Spanish Retail Sales M/M (Jul) -0.9% (Prev. 0.3%)
Spanish Retail Sales Y/Y (Jul) -0.3% (Prev. 0.5%)
Swedish Consumer Confidence (Aug) 98.0 (Prev. 97.1)
Swedish Consumer Inflation Expectations (Aug) 6.8% (Prev. 6.9%)
Swedish GDP Q/Q Final (Q2) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -0.2%)
Swedish GDP Y/Y Final (Q2) 3.3% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.0%)
Swedish Retail Sales M/M (Jul) -0.2% (Prev. 1.4%)
Swedish Retail Sales Y/Y (Jul) 6.2% (Prev. 7.7%)

ICYMI O/N - August 27th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 09:00:22 GMT

US stocks advanced (NQ +1%) as a bullish outlook from Nvidia (+7%) bolstered confidence that the rapid expansion in artificial-intelligence spending is likely to run for longer. Salesforce (+11%) also helping tech sentiment. Treasuries, the Dollar, and metals little changed, while bitcoin (+1%) has tested 80k to the upside. Oil is flat on the session after reversing inital losses in lack of major Iran updates.

IRAN:

Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir visited Tehran as part of the country’s role as a mediator, and reports that said he went as an envoy of US President Donald Trump are incorrect, its foreign ministry spokesperson said. Pakistan remains engaged in efforts toward resolving the Mideast crisis, Spokesperson said, and also noted that the visit of army chief was to renew the efforts to open Strait of Hormuz. (BBG)

Qatar's PM will visit Tehran on Thursday in a bid to relaunch diplomacy after the U.S. and Iran traded recriminations over Washington's promise to increase economic pressure on Tehran by targeting its trade partners for sanctions. (RTRS)

A tanker was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire that was later extinguished, the UKMTO agency said early on Thursday. (RTRS)

Visible commodity vessel transits at Hormuz totalled 10 on Wednesday, up slightly from eight on Tuesday, data from Kpler showed. This was below a 10-day moving average of about 15 vessels. Two countries have managed to get shipments back to 70% of pre-war levels which were 2mln BPD combined. (RTRS)

Kuwait and Qatar — two of the Persian Gulf’s smaller oil producers — are sending more crude through the Strait of Hormuz, adding to an increase in shipments that are keeping global prices in check. (BBG)

Iraq is offering buyers of its crude the option to collect supplies from outside of the Persian Gulf for the first time since the Iran war began, highlighting resilient exports flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. (BBG)

State-owned PetroChina bought about 4 million barrels of Saudi crude for loading in September at locations just outside the Strait of Hormuz, according to Bloomberg citing traders. (BBG)

Asia's imports of crude oil in August are still well short of levels prior to the start of the Iran conflict, raising further questions as to just how much crude is actually leaving the Middle East. (RTRS)

An air defence system operated by Greek military personnel in Saudi Arabia intercepted a swarm of drones on Thursday in the wider Yanbu region, home to major oil refining facilities, Greek security sources told Reuters. (RTRS)

'The Iranian cleric tightening Khamenei’s grip at home' FT article notes Khamenei's appointment of Hossein Taeb, the former head of the IRGC’s intelligence wing, to lead the Basij paramilitary force signals a shift toward increased domestic surveillance and security, with the regime aiming to counter potential unrest, separatist movements, and foreign influence. (FT)

MACRO:

The U.S. and Canadian governments, along with businesses in both countries, are bracing for a prolonged trade dispute that could last until after the midterm elections, according to WSJ sources. (WSJ)

Issuance from AI leaders is testing the tolerance of the bond market, with price premiums a telltale sign, according to a top Europe bond banker at JPMorgan Chase & Co, who said, "We don’t doubt that we will be able to place it, it’s all a question of price". (BBG)

The US Army is planning to deploy small reactors to power five bases across the country, investing $2.2 billion to accelerate the Trump Administration’s efforts to boost America’s nuclear industry. (BBG)

The owners of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System are seeking to renew its federal land authorization more than seven years before it expires, in a move that could capitalize on President Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for US oil production. (BBG)

BoJ's Himino said the Bank remains alert to inflation risks and will discuss the need to tighten policy, calling for a "timely" hike. Himino reiterated the bank’s longstanding stance of seeking further rate increases, noting that the nation’s financial conditions are still accommodative. (WSJ)

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi alluded to complications in relations with the US during a meeting with Ambassador David Perdue, underscoring lingering tensions less than a month before a leaders’ summit. (BBG)

China's industrial firms reported slower profit growth in July, with export-focused sectors riding the global AI boom, while industries reliant on domestic demand remained under pressure. (RTRS)

China's central bank resumed injecting funds through its overnight reverse repos into the banking system on Thursday, as cash demand picked up ahead of the month-end. (RTRS)

The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.00%, (18/35 polled by Reuters expected a hike) delivering a second straight increase as inflation stays above target and financial stability risks persist. (RTRS)

Australian household spending rose for a third straight month in July as consumers splurged on recreation, food and health, data showed on Thursday, suggesting demand was holding up in the face of higher borrowing costs. (RTRS)

Australian business investment fell in the June quarter as a record rush into data centre construction slowed for now, figures showed on Thursday, while companies upgraded spending plans for coming months. (RTRS)

Reality is starting to dawn on Australian financial markets that the Reserve Bank of Australia has more work to do in terms of raising interest rates and the next increase could be just weeks away. (WSJ)

Hedge funds are boosting bets that the Aussie dollar will outperform the kiwi heading into year-end as prospects for higher Australian interest rates bolster the currency, while New Zealand’s election clouds the nation’s monetary policy outlook. (BBG)

The UK government may extend energy bill support to more of the neediest households, as rising gas prices undermine Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s attempts to bear down on the cost of living. (BBG)

UK consulting executives are considering ordering junior staff back to the office more frequently to sharpen their human skills as AI takes over a growing proportion of their technical work. (FT)

German consumer confidence picked up, with perceptions of the economy bolstered by resilient growth despite lingering inflation concerns due to geopolitical uncertainty. (WSJ)

Germany’s top digital policy official said surging demand for AI is putting a squeeze on data centers in Europe’s largest economy. “The reality is we are running short of compute capacity, that means demand will rise,” Digital Minister Wildberger said. He outlined the country’s strategy to quadruple compute capacity and double data centers by the end of the decade to around 6GW. (BBG)

France is replacing Italy as the focal point for market concerns about European debt sustainability, say investors, as Paris faces tricky budget negotiations next month and ahead of a presidential election next year where support for far-left and far-right parties is rising. (FT)

French presidential candidates will present their policies to business leaders on Thursday, outlining starkly divergent paths for the euro area’s second largest economy as Emmanuel Macron’s decade in power draws to an end. (BBG)

Norway’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in four quarters, keeping the door open for more monetary tightening by the Nordic nation. (BBG)

The Philippine central bank raised interest rates for the third straight meeting Thursday, seeking to keep inflation under control as higher energy prices threaten to push up costs across the economy. (WSJ)

Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn pushed back against expectations for an extended interest-rate pause, saying policymakers aren’t committed to keeping borrowing costs unchanged and the next move could be in either direction. (BBG)

GEOPOLITICAL:

EU countries including Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland are urging Brussels to renew efforts to leverage immobilised Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine, in response to fears that Kyiv faces a renewed funding crisis. (FT)

The surprise visit by the director of the Central Intelligence Agency John Ratcliffe to Moscow this week was to deliver a warning to Russia not to attack NATO countries, according to WSJ sources. (WSJ)

The US government is investigating Singapore-based Apex Logistics for its suspected role in smuggling Nvidia chips to China, according to Bloomberg sources, in what may result in the first action against a transportation company. (BBG)

North Korea criticized potential US missile sales to South Korea, vowing to make a “powerful response” to what it described as hostile acts that raise tensions in the region, state media reported. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

Nvidia gave a bullish sales outlook for fiscal 2028 (guided +70% vs exp. +45%), easing concerns that AI spending is poised to lose momentum, saying sales would be more if it were not supply constrained. The company warned that margins would narrow in the coming months while it copes with a surge in memory costs. (BBG)

Nvidia has agreed to buy Hugging Face, a repository of open-source AI models, for $12.9 billion, according to sources cited by The Information. (The Information)

Amazon will add an additional 2 million Nvidia GPUs to its data center fleet in the next two years, a sign that the company remains committed to the AI hardware leader’s products despite its own competitive chipmaking efforts. (BBG)

Salesforce posted higher second-quarter profit and revenue on rising demand for its AI and data offerings, and also expanded its partnership with the AI company Anthropic. (WSJ)

CrowdStrike shares jumped in late trading after the company projected revenue for the full year that exceeded analysts’ estimates, evidence that the cybersecurity industry continues to benefit from AI-fueled demand. (BBG)

HP Inc. reported higher revenue in the third quarter, but logged lower sales volumes in its personal-computers business and said it is still grappling with stubbornly high memory costs. (WSJ)

Okta, Inc. raised its annual revenue outlook for a second time after posting a better-than-expected subscription backlog. (BBG)

Intel EMIB advanced packaging has become a confirmed rival to TSMC with strong yields and satisfied customers, according to DigiTimes citing supply chain sources, who say Intel’s work with clients Google and MediaTek has been so smooth it indicates that costs and production yields are meeting targets. (DigiTimes)

South Korea's media regulator said on Thursday that measures proposed by Meta to curb potentially addictive features for young users should ideally be applied worldwide, as Seoul considers tighter rules on how social media platforms serve minors. (RTRS)

OpenAI is launching a second startup fund, raising $400 million to invest in early-stage artificial-intelligence companies. The sophomore fund consists entirely of capital from OpenAI’s own balance sheet, unlike its first fund which relied on outside investors. (WSJ)

Barret Zoph, the Thinking Machines Lab co-founder who abruptly defected to OpenAI this year amid a dispute with Chief Executive Mira Murati, has changed employers again, joining Alphabet’s Google as a vice president of research. (WSJ)

Wendy’s Co. plunged in late trading on Wednesday after Reuters reported that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management has no plans to make a bid at this time to take the fast-food chain private. (BBG)

A Singapore-based activist fund has offered to take over a Samsung affiliate, arguing its shares are undervalued, in the first big test of South Korea’s new shareholder protection rules. (FT)

CXMT, a late entrant to the DRAM industry, is rapidly narrowing the technology gap with market leaders, according to Korean press. The company has reportedly succeeded in applying high-k dielectric materials—once considered largely the domain of leading memory manufacturers—to its latest DRAM products in mass production. (ZDNet via @jukan05)

Shein is set to price its Hong Kong initial public offering near the midpoint of its marketed range, raising $1.7 billion and valuing the company at about $26.5 billion, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

Kioxia and Sandisk plan to spend more than ¥5 trillion ($31.4 billion) to ratchet up production capacity across Japan, aiming to boost output of a critical AI data center component that’s in short supply. (BBG)

SoftBank is in talks to buy a majority stake in OpenAI-backed humanoid robot developer 1X Technologies in a deal that would value the startup at about $6 billion, The Information reported citing sources. (RTRS)

Pernod Ricard said fading interest in boozing in the U.S. will continue to weigh on sales over the coming years, offsetting growing enthusiasm in newer drinking markets. (WSJ)

Delivery Hero raised its full-year guidance on accelerated growth as it reported higher performance in one of its top-line metrics in the second quarter. (WSJ)

AstraZeneca said its asthma drug, Tezspire, developed with Amgen, met its main and secondary goals in a late-stage trial for treating eosinophilic esophagitis, a chronic inflammatory disorder of the esophagus. (RTRS)

Britain's Halfords forecast annual profit ahead of market expectations on Thursday as warm weather drove sales of its bicycles, camping gear and outdoor equipment, sending shares 12% higher. (RTRS)

Novo Nordisk said that China's drug regulator had accepted its application to sell the oral version of its GLP-1 weight-loss drug Wegovy, as the Danish drugmaker seeks to catch up with rival Eli Lilly in the world's second-largest pharmaceutical market. (RTRS)

Aker shares have rallied after announcing its second-largest portfolio holding, Nscale, has signed a contract to provide AI computing capacity at the Monarch site with a total contract value of around $45b. (BBG)

Swedish miner Boliden agreed to buy a majority stake in Nexa Resources for around $1.31 billion. (WSJ)

Qantas Airways warned that the financial hit of elevated fuel prices will extend into its current fiscal year, as Australia’s largest airline reported a 14% drop in annual profit. (WSJ)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

French PPI M/M (Jul) 1.1% (Prev. -0.4%)
French PPI Y/Y (Jul) 3.4% (Prev. 2.8%)
German GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep) -26.6 vs. Exp. -29.6 (Prev. -29.4)
Norwegian GDP Growth Mainland Q/Q (Q2) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%)
Norwegian GDP Growth Rate Q/Q (Q2) 0.7% (Prev. 0.4%)
Norwegian GDP Growth Rate Y/Y (Q2) 2.0% (Prev. 1.7%)
South Korean Interest Rate Decision 3.00% vs. Exp. 3.00% (Prev. 2.75%)
Thai Trade Balance (Jul) -3.610B vs. Exp. -5.4B (Prev. -6.530B)

ICYMI O/N - August 26th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:51:40 GMT

IRAN:

Russian state-owned RIA was out with a report suggeseting there is an Iran-US deal, citing Pakistani and Iranian sources. They call it a ceasefire deal that includes free navigation in Hormuz and say it will be announced in the coming days. No other source has corroborated the reports. (RIA)

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi warned that no military vessel will be allowed to pass through the Hormuz Strait. "Before any action is taken to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US must fully implement all of the commitments it has violated," he said, calling on the US to end the war, lift its blockade and resolve the situation in Yemen. (France 24)

The Iranian Army announced areas east of the Strait of Hormuz, north of the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Oman Sea are under its operational control. Said ships are under its surveillance hundreds of kilometers before they reach the Strait of Hormuz and can cross if they get our permission. (Al Jazeera)

US Secretary of State Rubio has told several of his foreign counterparts in recent days that "for the time being" the U.S. is not expected to initiate new strikes against Iran, according Axios sources. Source suggests this is expected to be the policy at least until after the midterm elections, when a new military campaign could again be on the table. (Axios)

Iran would take preemptive action if its adversaries’ rhetoric developed into a serious threat, a member of parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee said on Wednesday. “If the enemy’s rhetoric turns into a serious threat, the Islamic Republic will certainly confront it with preemptive action,” Mohammadreza Mohsenisani said. (Iran International)

Iran has shifted its military doctrine from a defensive posture toward offensive operations and is preparing for any future conflict, an army spokesperson told Mehr news agency. Mohammad Akraminia said Iran's armed forces would use "newer equipment, newer tactics and new arenas" in any future war, adding that potential targets could include energy and communications infrastructure in the region if Iran came under attack. (Iran International)

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin planned to meet on the sidelines of the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan on September 1st, Iran’s ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, said on Wednesday. (Iran International)

At least three Indian oil refiners and a global energy major plan to stop using vessels on Iran's new blacklist, including for ship-to-ship transfers, due to security concerns, according to Reuters sources. Several charterers and shipping firms are discussing internally whether to continue their STS operations or not and are evaluating Iran's warning. (RTRS)

Two supertankers carrying 4 million barrels of Saudi crude are bound for China after loading the cargoes via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, shipping data showed on Wednesday. (RTRS)

QatarEnergy has issued its first tender offering crude via ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz, joining other Gulf producers that have moved loading operations beyond the waterway, trade sources said to Reuters on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Five commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, broadly unchanged from a day earlier but well below the 10-day average of 15, preliminary shipping data showed on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Qatar's PM & FM plans to visit Tehran, very likely tomorrow, within the framework of efforts to reduce tensions and strengthen regional security and stability, as well as to discuss bilateral relations with, Iran Nuances learned. (Iran Nuances)

Japan is set to unveil on Wednesday a comprehensive plan to boost resilience of its energy supply, with steps such as diversifying crude oil procurement and supporting Middle East pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. (RTRS)

The Netherlands won’t meet its target for filling gas storage facilities before this winter, leaving the country ill-prepared for particularly cold conditions or unexpected supply disruptions, according to network operator Gasunie. (BBG)

MACRO:

The Trump administration is discussing additional trade penalties against Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled dollar-for-dollar retaliation to new tariffs imposed by the US on Saturday. Additional US escalation against its northern neighbor could include higher tariffs and other trade actions, according to a White House official cited by Bloomberg. (BBG)

Fed's Barkin said there will eventually be a “reckoning” if US debt continues to rise, but it’s difficult to know when that might happen. (BBG)

Citadel Securities’ Frank Flight, who just last month warned of a “cruel summer” for US bond investors, now sees the balance of risks tilted toward a rally, citing crowded bearish positioning and improving inflation data. (BBG)

Barclays equities tactical strategies team joined a growing chorus of Wall Street strategists warning that markets are potentially overlooking risks to the AI trade tied to the November election. Voter backlash will drive increased scrutiny of AI infrastructure with policy pressure concentrated around data center regulation, strategists wrote. (BBG)

Bill Gates is looking to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year, eager to propose global efforts to mitigate the growing risks posed by AI. Gates told Reuters in an interview that he believes China might agree to restricting potentially dangerous AI model releases if the U.S. took initiative on that first. (RTRS)

Bill Gates is loudly warning that artificial intelligence poses a grave threat to jobs and human life, and that urgently addressing the risks should be “the world’s top priority.” Gates said the tech industry was knowingly downplaying those threats because there was too much money on the line. (NYT)

Barclays strategists see macro risks building for equity markets, noting that while corporate earnings have supported stocks for now, the asset class faces risks from AI-driven supply concerns and volatility ahead of the US midterms. Barclays expects stocks to grind higher in its base case, but that would likely require calmer bond and oil markets. (BBG)

Australia’s inflation came in stronger than expected in July, highlighting persistent price pressures in the economy and prompting traders to ratchet up bets on another interest-rate increase. The trimmed-mean gauge of consumer prices rose an annual 3.6%, exceeding economists’ 3.5% estimate. Core prices accelerated to 0.5% in July from 0.3% a month earlier. (BBG)

Australia’s second-largest pension has built its biggest overweight position in the Japanese yen in years, betting that markets are underpricing Bank of Japan interest rate hikes. Australian Retirement Trust, which manages about A$370 billion ($265 billion) of savings, has spent the past six months adding to the trade as the yen weakened toward 160 per dollar. (BBG)

A key gauge of Japan's service-sector inflation rose 3.6% in July from a year earlier, data showed on Wednesday, reinforcing the central bank's view that a tight labour market is pushing firms to pass rising costs on to consumers. (RTRS)

BoJ board member Naoki Tamura will attend the U.S. Federal Reserve's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week on behalf of Governor Kazuo Ueda, the central bank said on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Chinese lenders have started pricing bonds off the nation’s overnight funding cost, an indication that it’s increasingly the benchmark for the financial system. (BBG)

Chinese media reports about 30 Chinese listed companies have disclosed their order backlogs for the first half of this year, signaling recovering demand in core real-economy sectors. (Securities Times)

Overseas operations are becoming a vital growth engine for Chinese brokerages, driven by surging corporate expansion and cross-border investment. (Shanghai Securities News)

South Korea has launched its first commercial test of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), with the PanStar Acro container ship currently navigating the Arctic coast toward Europe. The route is viewed by Seoul as a potential alternative to the Suez Canal. (FT)

UK's Ofgem announced a 4% increase to the UK energy price cap, adding nearly £100 to the annual cost for a typical household starting in October. Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh attributed the rise to volatility in global fossil fuel markets exacerbated by the war in Iran, noting that wholesale costs account for 40% of the cap. (Sky News)

Over a third of British employers have reduced the number of entry-level jobs open to younger workers over the past year due in part to increased use of AI and other forms of automation, a survey showed on Wednesday. (RTRS)

UK PM Burnham is looking at allowing English mayors to suspend Margaret Thatcher’s totemic “right to buy” policy for council homes, as the new prime minister seeks to assert more public control over housing. Labour metro mayors want powers to restrict council tenants’ ability to buy their homes amid continuing concern over the loss of social housing. (FT)

Former UK PM Gordon Brown has called on Andy Burnham to implement a new tax on betting and gaming machines to fund fuel subsidies for struggling households.(Telegraph)

Natural gas has overtaken oil to become the biggest concern for European bond traders as depleted supplies of the key fuel threaten a resurgence in inflation. (BBG)

ECB's Schnabel said interest rates must rise further as the lengthy conflict in the Middle East and surprisingly strong euro-zone economy pose upside risks to inflation. (BBG)

Thailand's central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged for a third straight meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. (RTRS)

GEOPOLITICAL:

Indian refiners are scaling back buying of Russian crude from elevated levels, as Ukrainian attacks hurt flows from the nation’s top supplier. Processors have been seeking alternative barrels from regions including West Africa and even the Americas, while also turning to Persian Gulf suppliers. (BBG)

Trump has submitted a landmark nuclear accord with Saudi Arabia to Congress for review, but hasn't dropped his last minute condition that the kingdom normalize relations with Israel, an administration official said. The move is expected to trigger months of intensive debate among lawmakers. (WSJ)

EQUITIES:

China's Moonshot AI is negotiating revenue-sharing agreements with Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet's Google that would allow the U.S. cloud giants to host its blockbuster Kimi K3 model, according to Reuters sources. Any deal could mark the first big revenue-sharing pact between a Chinese AI firm and a major U.S. cloud company. (RTRS)

Intuit forecast slower sales growth in the year ahead as it navigates declines in its desktop business and attempts to woo more customers to its TurboTax platform. (WSJ)

Zoom Communications’s second-quarter revenue gained as its enterprise business recorded its strongest growth in years. (WSJ)

Samsung and SK hynix are expected to increase the share of 8-high products in their shipments of sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4) to Nvidia. The main driver is Nvidia’s procurement strategy of securing a broader range of HBM options to address thermal-management concerns and improve supply-chain stability. (ZDNet via @jukan05)

YMTC aims to overtake Samsung and SK Hynix to become the world’s largest Nand flash memory producer as the Chinese company gears up for a stock market listing. The Co. told investors and stakeholders in recent IPO preparation meetings that it wants to take the global Nand crown by as soon as the end of 2027, according to FT sources. (FT)

DeepSeek generated approximately 475 million yuan ($70.7 million) in revenue during the first seven months of 2026, a tenfold increase over its full-year 2025 revenue, according to sources cited by The Information. The firm, which has hired banks to prepare for a potential Shanghai IPO next year, maintains a 44.6% gross margin. (The Information)

Bearish bets against shares of Z.AI Co. and MiniMax Group Inc. have soared to records ahead of their earnings reports, highlighting growing investor worry over China’s heated AI rivalry. (BBG)

Existing investors in Shein Global Holdings Ltd. are agreeing to a lock-up on new shares allocated to them in the fast-fashion retailer’s Hong Kong initial public offering, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

SoftBank is talking with investment banks about a potential $10 billion to $20 billion bond offering to help refinance a loan for its investment in US tech giant OpenAI, according to Bloomberg sources. The offering could be denominated in dollars and euros and could come as early as September. (BBG)

Hyundai Motor unveiled plans to add 1.27 million units of production capacity by 2030 and expand its U.S. hybrid lineups, as the South Korean automaker seeks to lift its operating profit margin above 9% within four years. (RTRS)

Siemens Energy said it is preparing to spin off its Transformation of Industry division and is exploring potential ownership structures as it focuses on power generation and power transmission. (WSJ)

CD Projekt RED will publish a remastered version of its 2015 blockbuster "The Witcher 3" on September 29, ahead of a 2027 launch of a new expansion for the video game, it said late on Tuesday. (RTRS)

Australia's WiseTech Global reported annual profit below market estimates on Wednesday, as acquisition-related interest and amortization costs tied to the e2open acquisition weighed on results, sending its shares more than 10% lower. (RTRS)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

Australian CPI Index (Jul) 103.07 (Prev. 102.03)
Australian CPI M/M (Jul) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -0.1%)
Australian CPI Y/Y (Jul) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.8%)
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI M/M (Jul) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y (Jul) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.6%)
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI M/M (Jul) 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%)
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI Y/Y (Jul) 3.6% (Prev. 3.7%)
Japanese Services PPI Y/Y (Jul) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.2%, Rev. 3.4%)
Singapore Industrial Production M/M (Jul) 2.3% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. -7.0%)
Singapore Industrial Production Y/Y (Jul) 6.8% vs. Exp. 6.7% (Prev. 7.5%)
South Korean Retail Sales Y/Y (Jul) 6.4% (Prev. 9.5%)
Swedish PPI M/M (Jul) 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)

ICYMI O/N - August 25th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:17:15 GMT

US stock-index futures gained as pressure on technology shares eased, Asia indices also recovered intial losses. Bitcoin advanced, building on its recent rally to climb above $80,000 for the first time since mid May, before losing the level again. Oil prices declined after reports the US offered Iran an end to the blockade with a response from Tehran awaited. Bonds have started to firm, while the Dollar moves lower. Metals are lower after rejecting a move higher overnight.

IRAN:

Middel Eastern press reports the US offered Iran an end to the naval blockade and sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing proxy attacks, with Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir carrying the proposal to Tehran. Tehran is continuing consultations and is expected to provide its response soon. Secretary of Iran's SNSC Mohsen Rezaei informed Asim Munir that the Iranian Supreme Leader seeks a permanent solution to the crisis. (Al Arabiya)

The Iranian president's advisor on public relations said, "Contrary to some incorrect media speculations, the visit of the Pakistani army chief to Iran was extremely productive." (IRNA)

Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, after concluding his visit to meet Iranian officials in Tehran, posted on X, "Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir and I had a very positive and productive meeting with the President of Iran...we had a very constructive exchange on the issues involved. Significant progress was made, and the meeting concluded on a highly positive note. We remain hopeful that this momentum will help pave the way for further progress and lasting peace in the region." (X)

Iran promised to retaliate against expanded U.S. sanctions that the Americans said would cut Iran's economic lifeline, with Tehran expressing confidence that major trading partners would resist Washington's pressure campaign. (RTRS)

Long queues have formed at petrol stations around Tehran as the US blockade triggers fuel shortages and spreads alarm among motorists in a sign of the war’s growing strain on the Iranian economy. (FT)

The Trump administration’s latest sanctions salvo against Iran has swept up businesses in China and Hong Kong, but avoided the far more consequential step of targeting major Chinese financial institutions. (BBG)

China opposes unilateral sanctions and warns that they risk worsening conflicts, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said. When asked about Beijing’s response to the latest US sanctions against Iran and threats made against its trading partners, Lin reiterated that China would take measures to protect itself. (BBG)

'Why China’s Ties With Iran Aren’t as Strong as They Seem' Bloomberg article notes Beijing’s investment in Iran has fallen dramatically short of headline agreements, its military ties are limited and its broader Middle East strategy depends on balancing relations with Iran’s regional rivals. (BBG)

Just two tankers transited the key energy chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, for the lowest daily tally of commodity vessels since early May, with both entering the Gulf, shipping data showed. (RTRS)

Asian LNG prices rose to the highest since March. The super-chilled fuel reached about $23.7 per million British thermal units on the spot market, according to traders cited by Bloomberg. Prices have inched higher over the past weeks. (BBG)

Asian refiners are on course to nearly double their purchases of US crude for September from a month earlier, a move that stands to squeeze domestic fuel makers at a time when Americans are already facing record high pump prices. (BBG)

Pakistan is focused on securing US financing as it plots a return to global capital markets, the country’s finance minister has said, in a major shift after years of relying on state loans from China. (FT)

Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore — countries that share the primary stewardship of the Strait of Malacca — said they were committed to keeping it and the waters around it “free, open and safe for international shipping.” The Strait of Malacca is one of the world’s most vital thoroughfares. As the shortest route between the Middle East and East Asia, more than a fifth of the world’s seaborne trade passes through it. (BBG)

MACRO:

Bitcoin hit $80,000 for the first time since May, reversing months of subdued valuations as fresh investor interest in the so-called debasement trade brought growing support for the cryptocurrency as a dollar hedge. (WSJ)

Stanley Druckenmiller, in a WSJ OpEd, called the Treasury secretary’s plan to spend billions buying back US bonds a mistake, saying that “governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose.” He said, "Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels." (WSJ)

If the Treasury opts to use its general account at the Federal Reserve to fund its growing buybacks, it’s going to be neutral for bank reserves and bill issuance, according to Deutsche Bank. (BBG)

The SEC has sent subpoenas to major Wall Street banks regarding the hedge fund Situational Awareness, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

The Supreme Court ruled that a trial judge was wrong to block President Trump’s March executive order on mail ballots. The court’s conservative majority said a lawsuit brought by roughly two dozen Democratic-run states was premature. (WSJ)

Last week saw the second-largest hedge fund selling in global equities for 12 months, according to Morgan Stanley‘s prime brokerage desk, the majority of it outside the US. Asia-Pacific accounted for the biggest slice as funds cut exposure across Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan in the week ended Aug. 20. (BBG)

A Bank of Japan measure of underlying inflation remained above the central bank’s 2% target, supporting widespread expectations of a September rate hike. (BBG)

South Korea’s leveraged ETFs tied to chipmakers saw outflows near $1 billion this month as investor fervor over the AI trade cooled and regulators stepped up measures to curb demand. (BBG)

The RBA minutes showed the bank remains nervous about the inflation outlook and further interest-rate increases can’t be ruled out, especially if the unresolved war in the Middle East drives fuel prices sharply higher once again. (WSJ)

Citigroup says Australian exporters are keeping a close eye on Federal Reserve rate hike expectations to offset a stronger local currency as the Iran conflict continues to linger. (BBG)

UK PM Burnham has halted plans to place Thames Water into administration because of concerns about the cost and legal risk, The Times reported, citing unidentified officials. (BBG)

Britain set out plans to spend £10 billion on lower-cost housing for renters with a focus on London, although its target for offering social rent was lower than a pledge made by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham. (RTRS)

The German economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, slightly above last month's preliminary reading of 0.2% as exports perked up. (RTRS)

Germany’s business outlook brightened for a fourth month as the economy proved resilient to the Iran war and the government stepped up efforts to bolster growth, according to the Ifo survey. (BBG)

GEOPOLITICAL:

Two small oil refineries in southern Russia were hit in overnight drone strikes, as Kyiv keeps up strikes on the nation’s energy infrastructure. (BBG)

UK PM Burnham said he and other European leaders plan to travel to the US next month to lobby President Donald Trump to let Ukraine access some of its Patriot air defense missile stocks ahead of the winter. (BBG)

Turkey said on Tuesday it welcomed the U.S. decision to remove Syria from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, saying the move lifted "one of the biggest obstacles" to Syria's reconstruction and economic development. (RTRS)

Top Chinese military thinkers wrote about how AI can be used to help commanders make battlefield decisions faster, articles that provide a rare glimpse into how the Asian nation is modernizing its fighting forces. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

Meta Platforms plans to launch its consumer version of the OpenClaw AI agent, dubbed Hatch internally, as soon as the next several weeks and is targeting October for its latest AI model, called Watermelon, according to internal documents reviewed by The Information. (The Information)

An Nvidia employee has been charged in Taiwan with smuggling advanced AI chips into China in the first known indictment of a worker at the US chipmaker over alleged illegal exports. (FT)

NVDA options are pricing in a 5.4% move in either direction on Thursday, a day after the company reports results, which is below the 6.5% move implied ahead of its May earnings report. (RTRS)

Alabama's attorney general said on Monday the state had opened an investigation into OpenAI after its models hacked technology company Hugging Face last month, raising concerns about how artificial intelligence firms control their powerful systems. (RTRS)

Apple Inc. is gearing up to launch a new version of its Mac mini desktop computer for the first time in almost two years, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

Tesla raised the prices of some of its Cybertruck pickup trucks in the United States on Tuesday, according to its website. The company increased the price of its Cybertruck dual motor and premium all-wheel drive by $5,000 to $74,990 and $84,990 respectively. (RTRS)

The U.S. Department of War on Monday awarded Boeing a $131.23 billion indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contract to support the F-15 Eagle Crest program, which oversees the F-15 fighter aircraft fleet. (RTRS)

SK Hynix Inc.’s union rejected an agreement that would have raised salaries and paid out a portion of bonuses in company shares, Yonhap News reported. (BBG)

A roughly 45% slump in the shares of Unitree, China's best-known humanoid robot maker, since a more than fivefold jump on its Shanghai debut has triggered concerns about bubble risk, retail investor losses and flaws in the IPO system. (RTRS)

Enflame Technology, one of China's leading AI chipmakers, will open share subscriptions on September 2 for its 6 billion yuan ($892.21 million) IPO on Shanghai's tech-heavy STAR Market, a regulatory filing showed late on Monday. (RTRS)

Chinese media reports CXMT is expected to be a key supplier of LPDDR6 for Xiaomi’s new Xring O3 chip. (@jukan05)

Shein's Hong Kong IPO book to raise up to $1.8 billion has been fully covered by investor demand, according to Reuters sources, bringing it closer to its long-awaited market debut amid growing business and regulatory challenges. (RTRS)

Hyundai Motor has reached a tentative wage agreement with its labor union, ending months of on-and-off walkouts that have disrupted production. (WSJ)

Volkswagen AG labor representatives warned that the carmaker’s planned cuts could eventually affect as many as 140,000 jobs as management prepares to take its restructuring pitch to workers. (BBG)

UBS Group AG is expanding its push to offer clients leveraged deposits with Middle East lenders to take advantage of higher regional savings rates, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

Equinor hopes to make a "pretty big" oil discovery in Namibia's PEL 90 exploration licence, the Norwegian company said on Tuesday. (RTRS)

Gold Fields said it would return additional cash to shareholders as reported earnings for the first half of the year rose on higher prices and an increase in production. (WSJ)

Woodside Energy considers everything to be on the table in a review of its Beaumont New Ammonia facility in Texas, raising the prospect that it could seek a buyer for a project that it agreed to acquire for US$2.35 billion only two years ago. (WSJ)

ICYMI O/N & WEEKEND - August 24th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:13:32 GMT

Stocks fell at the start of a pivotal week for markets, with the AI trade under pressure ahead of key tech earnings (NVDA Wednesday after it announced price hikes to customers) and the Federal Reserve’s annual gathering (Friday). Treasuries rose as oil fell. China tech under pressure amid fundraising from Alibaba ($10bn raise). Kospi lower amid disappointment from Samsung's shareholder plan. Softbank lower on record retail bond sale plan ($6bn). (BBG)

IRAN:

Axios' Barak Ravid reported on Satuday, "Around 40 tankers transited in and out of the Strait of Hormuz through the southern deep channel on Friday night. Around 16 million barrels of oil moved out of the strait through the southern channel on Friday night, three U.S. officials told me." (X)

Fewer than 20 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz at the weekend, shipping data showed on Monday. (RTRS)

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) announced a new "Non-Compliant Vessels" list Sunday that it says will target ships accused of violating Iranian regulations that govern transit through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategically important shipping lanes. Vessels violating its arrangements for the Strait could face restrictions including fines, detention or confiscation. (Newsweek/RTRS)

Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir will visit Tehran on Monday to continue efforts to bring peace and security to the region, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Sunday. Al Jazeera suggests the meeting is is meant to reactivate the mediation between the U.S. and Iran. (RTRS/Al Jazeera)

Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump last week, according to three Pakistani sources cited by Reuters, days before Munir was expected to hold talks in the Iranian capital of Tehran on Monday. (RTRS)

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is due to unveil a plan later on Monday for “the greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world”. Chinese refiners and the banks funding them are the most obvious targets in his sights. Bessent will hold a press conference at 1 p.m. ET on Monday. (BBG/RTRS)

Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei said, "If the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported٫ neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Persian Gulf. Iran will regard any country’s participation in or support for America’s economic war against the Iranian people as an act of war." (X)

Rezaei said Iran is not currently considering reopening the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that Washington must act first and fulfill its commitments. “We are serious about diplomacy, but we have changed our method. We will no longer sit at the negotiating table like a polite child,” Rezaei said. “We are waiting for the commitments to be implemented.” (Tasnim)

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran will strike American bases in European countries if those countries participate in an aggression against Iran. (Al Mayadeen)

'Iran’s Top Politicians Urge an End to the War' WSJ article highlights recent commentary from top politicians saying the country must focus on ending the war and shoring up its economy, pushing back against hardliners. President Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf worry economic pressure will undermine stability. (WSJ)

Iran has granted permission for a number of Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the ‌Strait following repeated requests from Baghdad through various channels, Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported on Saturday. (RTRS)

Iran’s oil shipments to Asia have all but dried up, driving the cost of those cargoes to the highest levels in years. A US blockade has left loaded Iranian vessels trapped inside the Persian Gulf and a fleet of empty ones stuck outside, resulting in a scarcity of oil in the region. (BBG)

Iran’s currency weakened to an all-time low against the dollar amid a mounting US campaign to cripple the country’s economy after almost six months of war. The rial was trading at 1.992 million per dollar on the unregulated market on Monday, according to data from tracking website Bonbast, down 4.5% since Trump announced a “crushing economic operation” against Tehran last week. (BBG)

According to a report by the Superbro website, an Iranian-affiliated container ship managed to pass through the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and enter Iranian waters. (Fars)

Iran said it discovered more than 7.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, after months of war with the US and Israel seriously disrupted its energy sector. (BBG)

European gas prices will likely need to rise above €100 a megawatt-hour in December for the continent to rebuild enough inventory to last the winter, according to Goldman Sachs, where the US-Iran war reducing shipments via the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle has heightened competition with Asia for limited LNG cargoes, creating procurement challenges for European buyers. (BBG)

A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile 63 nautical miles west of Saudi Arabia's port city of Yanbu, leading to a fire on the vessel's main deck, the UKMTO said on Monday. The UKMTO said all crew were safe and accounted for with no reported environmental impact. (RTRS)

Saudi Arabia has held talks with London brokers about a state-backed scheme for war and political risk insurance that could provide cover for ships in the region, according to FT sources, as conflict threatens the kingdom’s trade. (FT)

Saudi Arabia is overhauling how its oil gets to customers around the world due to Yemen's Houthis making it harder to use a backup route. The kingdom is sending oil tankers thousands of miles around Africa to collect cargoes, with its oil moving in the opposite direction on the arduous route, and is offering Middle East shipments for collection just outside the Persian Gulf. (BBG)

Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO offered Basrah Medium and Heavy crude for loading in September, to be loaded from inside the Strait of Hormuz. (BBG)

QatarEnergy is looking to sell cargoes of Al-Shaheen, Qatar Marine and Qatar Land for loading in September and October from locations within the Persian Gulf. (BBG)

Qatar has slashed government department budgets by up to 30 per cent and cut funding for overseas aid by about 85 per cent, underlining the financial impact on one of the world’s richest nations of the US-Israel war against Iran. (FT)

Britain’s power companies have been put on alert after hackers thought to be affiliated with the Iranian regime shut down a small UK energy facility. (FT)

MACRO:

Canadian PM Carney said Canada will apply counter-tariffs on $20 billion of US products on Sept. 8, escalating the feud rocking one of the world’s biggest trading relationships. Carney said he was left with little choice after trade talks with the US broke down on Friday night. More details to be announced soon. (BBG)

Carney’s government sees little chance of resuming talks with President Donald Trump before the midterm elections after trade negotiations collapsed, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

Fed's Kashkari played down concerns over rising US Treasury yields, saying markets are functioning well and the recent surge is unlikely to affect monetary policy deliberations. (BBG)

Trump made more than 1,000 securities trades in June, including purchases of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Visa Inc., Mastercard Inc. and Cintas Corp. The transactions totaled between $78.1 million and $263.1 million, with the largest transaction being a sale of between $5 million and $25 million of shares in a Vanguard Group Inc. exchange-traded fund. (BBG)

Hedge funds are ramping up bearish dollar bets as they await more details on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s new fiscal plan to address the highest borrowing costs in years. The dollar's recovery may be threatened by Bessent's unveiling of new sanctions on Iran, which could stoke tensions between the US and China. (BBG)

The extra compensation investors demand to hold long-dated government bonds is likely to remain elevated barring an unexpected economic downturn, presenting opportunities to buy at higher yields, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. (BBG)

Clients of Goldman Sachs’ Prime Services desk net sold global equities in the week through Thursday for the first time in a month and at the fastest pace in two months, a -2.3 standard deviation move against the past year. Long sales outpaced fresh shorts by 1.8 to 1, suggesting investors were trimming existing conviction rather than building outright bearish bets. (BBG)

Morgan Stanley prefers the S&P 500 to international stocks due to an outperformance in quality stocks. Team led by Michael Wilson says it favours large-cap quality stocks and AI adopters over enablers, noting that semiconductor stocks are “unlikely to re-take the mantle of price momentum leadership in the near term”. (BBG)

'Investors try to catch ‘falling knife’ with bets on risky funds during chip rout' FT article notes investors poured billions of dollars into risky leveraged funds tracking semiconductor companies during July and August. (FT)

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds had their strongest weekly inflow in 10 months last week as the original cryptocurrency surged. (BBG)

Two Japanese bond auctions next week may challenge US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts to subdue longer-maturity Treasury yields. (BBG)

Japanese power prices jumped to the highest in more than three years as hot weather boosted electricity demand and Middle East supply disruptions increased fuel costs. (BBG)

China’s nationalist tabloid Global Times praised Canada’s retaliation against US tariffs, casting Ottawa’s move as validating Beijing’s opposition to Washington’s protectionist trade policies. (BBG)

China’s quantitative hedge funds are bouncing back after suffering steep losses during a July rout, with all of the most popular strategies posting higher returns than benchmarks. (BBG)

China’s biggest oil refiner said road fuel demand plummeted in the first half as consumers shied away from higher prices and shifted to electric vehicles. (BBG)

China’s economic expansion strayed further below Beijing’s annual target of 4.5% to 5% at the start of the third quarter, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., fueling expectations for monetary easing. (BBG)

A historic stock selloff has driven South Korea’s retail investors toward complex structured products as the risk-loving cohort continues to look for ways to boost returns. (BBG)

New Zealand’s main opposition Labour Party pledged to restore the central bank’s dual mandate if it wins office in the Nov. 7 election, saying price stability and sustainable employment are both essential for a strong economy. (BBG)

Singapore’s core inflation surged to a nearly two-year high, driven by higher utility bills as elevated global energy prices filtered through to households. (BBG)

The UK statistics agency is turning to AI to cut costs and improve data as it tries to fix critical economic outputs and deliver the next census with squeezed finances. (FT)

Business investment in the US is on track to rise more than three times faster than in Europe in the six years since the pandemic, according to forecasts that highlight the AI-driven gulf opening between the two economies. (FT)

The EU risks falling further behind the US in the race to secure critical minerals, as the west seeks to counter Chinese dominance in essential components for defence and green technology, European officials and industry have warned. (FT)

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said it would be difficult to cut a tax on big companies that was supposed to be a one-time measure. Still, Lescure said the government doesn’t intend to introduce new taxes in negotiations on the 2027 finance bill in the coming weeks. (BBG)

The German government must be more willing to join forces with private investors as the country tackles its crumbling infrastructure, its investment tsar Martin Blessing said. (FT)

Uniper has signed a deal to import more than 30 terawatt hours of gas a year from Equinor from 2027, the companies said on Monday, reinforcing Norway's position as the key supplier to Europe's biggest economy. (RTRS)

Norway will continue developing its oil and gas resources in the Barents Sea regardless of the European Union's support for a moratorium on Arctic hydrocarbon supplies, and no longer sees itself as Europe's "green battery", Energy Minister Terje Aasland told Reuters. (RTRS)

Italy’s government extended a tax cut on diesel fuel until Wednesday, as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni contends with the impact of oil prices pushed higher by war in the Middle East. (BBG)

Hungary will restart the first of three nuclear reactors it was forced to shut down due to the record low level of the Danube river, as the country looks to recover from an unprecedented energy crisis. (BBG)

Unimot SA, one of Poland’s largest fuel companies, is urging Europe to speed up its green energy transition, warning that Middle East tensions have once again exposed the continent’s excessive reliance on imported fossil fuels. (BBG)

Turkish banking stocks surged after the central bank moved to resume funding from its 37% policy rate, effectively lowering borrowing costs and aiding expectations for lenders’ profit margins. (BBG)

Thailand and Vietnam could be hurt worst as big notebook PC brands turn back to China for mass production, media report, saying Southeast Asia turned out to be too costly for laptop production and US tariffs have not had as big an impact as feared. (DigiTimes via @dnystedt)

Indonesian government bonds drew the biggest foreign inflows in more than seven years, helped by a stronger rupiah and expectations that the central bank will keep interest rates steady following a 100-basis-point increase this year. (BBG)

GEOPOLITICAL:

'India’s reliance on Russian oil hits all-time high' FT article notes India’s purchases of Russian oil have hit a record high as the conflict in the Gulf squeezes supply and makes it harder for New Delhi to shake its reliance on Moscow. (FT)

Russia is currently seeing gasoline supply issues while stocks of diesel and jet fuel to the domestic market are sufficient, Interfax reported, citing Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. (BBG)

UK PM Burnham is marking his first foreign visit as prime minister with a trip to Kyiv - and will hand over blueprints so Ukraine can build its own long-range missiles. (BBC)

The US military has scrapped an amphibious landing exercise with South Korea because of shortages related to deployments to the Middle East, according to Seoul. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

Some of Nvidia Corp.’s biggest customers have been told that the prices of servers containing its AI chips are going up more than 15% in many cases with memory chip costs soaring for Vera Rubn and Grace Blackwell chips starting next year, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

Nvidia is in talks to invest in Perplexity as part of an ‌equity funding round that would value the AI startup at more than $30 billion, The Information reported on Sunday, citing people with knowledge of the discussion. (RTRS)

Anthropic’s US customers are using cheaper alternatives to its most powerful AI tool. Spending on Fable 5, Anthropic’s largest and priciest model, has plateaued at only about 11 per cent of overall outlay on the company’s tools, more than two months after its release, according to spending data from 70,000 companies collected by payments group Ramp. (FT)

Anthropic has a culture interview that includes a question about prioritizing mission over future share price, according to Axios sources. CEO Dario Amodei has questioned whether newer employees are joining the AI lab for the right reasons. (Axios)

A mysterious new AI model is making the rounds among developers — and nobody is saying who built it. Ox Alpha appeared on OpenRouter on Thursday as a "stealth model" from an anonymous third-party provider. (BI)

Shell has drawn interest from potential bidders, including ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell, for its U.S. chemical assets that could fetch up to $8 billion. (FT)

AI startup Hugging Face has been exploring a sale that could value the company at $13 billion or more, Business Insider reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter. (BI)

Members of the United Auto Workers voted down an offer from Deere to extend its contract with the union by two years, setting up what will likely be a contentious negotiation for a new contract next year. (WSJ)

California Attorney General Rob Bonta is expected to ask Paramount to divest some cable channels and commit to keeping its movie studio separate from Warner Bros. before he signs off on the $81 billion merger, according to WSJ sources. (WSJ)

Amazon’s Zoox has started charging for rides in Las Vegas and operating in San Francisco using robotaxis without steering wheels or pedals. (WSJ)

Walmart plans to launch Scenario, a new women’s clothing and accessories store brand, to appeal to younger, trendier shoppers. (WSJ)

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is likely to meet with Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong this week to possibly discuss the country's three mega projects centered on semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI), Yonhap sources said Monday. (Yonhap)

SoftBank plans a record ¥1 trillion ($6.3 billion) retail bond sale, the biggest by any issuer in Japan, as the conglomerate raises funds for its investment commitments to OpenAI. The seven-year bonds are expected to be priced on Sept. 4, with an indicative coupon range of 4.3% to 4.9%, according to a company filing. (BBG)

Alibaba raised HK$80 billion ($10.2 billion) in Hong Kong’s biggest secondary share sale, underscoring its willingness to amass and spend vast sums to take the lead in global artificial intelligence. (BBG)

Michael Burry criticized Alibaba shares as overvalued and disclosed that he recently exited his position in the Chinese tech giant in order to build a “large” position in rival online retailer JD.com. (BBG)

YMTC, China’s flagship memory-chip maker, filed for an initial public offering in Shanghai to raise $4.9 billion, which would be one of the country’s biggest semiconductor-makers’ share sales in years. (WSJ)

DeepSeek will stop distinguishing between peak and off-peak API pricing on weekends from Aug. 23, with usage on Saturdays and Sundays charged at off-peak rates, the company said in a notice Saturday. (BBG)

Xiaomi on Monday unveiled a new version of its in-house Xring handset processor, betting that deeper control over key components will help strengthen its supply chain and reduce reliance on external chip suppliers. TSMC will manufacture the new chip using its 3-nanometre production technology, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

Shein has priced an initial public offering in Hong Kong that could value the fast-fashion company at about $27 billion. The company plans to use the net proceeds of up to $1.77 billion to strengthen its technology infrastructure and boost brand awareness. (WSJ)

Zijin Mining Group Co. said its full-year copper production target was under pressure due to flooding at a major Congolese mine, adding to global supply concerns as the metal trades near a record high. (BBG)

Eni is widening its bet on nuclear fusion, arguing the technology could become its “next refinery” and aiming to be among the first energy companies to commercialise fusion in Europe. (FT)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

New Zealand Retail Sales Q/Q (Q2) -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.9%)
New Zealand Retail Sales Y/Y (Q2) 3.3% (Prev. 4.5%)
Singapore Core CPI Y/Y (Jul) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 1.6%)
Singapore CPI M/M (Jul) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
Singapore CPI Y/Y (Jul) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 1.9%)

ICYMI O/N - August 20th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:12:07 GMT

ICYMI O/N

IRAN:

US President Trump vowed to unleash what he called “ECONOMIC D-DAY” on Iran as frustrations mount over lack of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or reaching a deal to end the nearly six-month war. Trump said on Wednesday evening he would launch a major economic campaign against Iran and any entity that does business with the regime. (WSJ)

Trump reportedly told his negotiating team that the chances of reaching an agreement with Iran had become slim and ordered talks frozen for several weeks, while leaving open the possibility of extending negotiations. The administration has also sought assessments of Iranian plans to resume attacks on shipping and was briefed on potential operations beyond maritime targets; Trump reportedly raised the possibility of large-scale strikes on Iran if economic pressure fails. (Al Arabiya/Al Hadath)

Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said "The best response to Trump's escalation of economic warfare is to withdraw from the NPT [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty]." (Newsquawk)

ADNOC is offering spot crude in a tender, its ninth since the start of June, as the UAE state oil company works to move oil from inside the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said to Reuters. (RTRS)

Chinese refiners have snapped up Iraqi crude as more barrels exit the Persian Gulf, underscoring the resilience of oil exports from the region despite persistent threats to shipping. (BBG)

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday was unchanged from the day before as discussions to end the war between the United States and Iran remained deadlocked, according to the latest shipping data. (RTRS)

Soaring demand for oil tankers to shuttle oil out of the Gulf has pushed vessel prices to record highs as Middle Eastern countries search for ways to export cargoes despite the continuing strikes on ships. (FT)

MACRO:

Four Democratic senators asked Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to publicly disclose his conversations with President Trump. The lawmakers said undisclosed contacts risk creating a perception that the White House is shaping monetary policy. (WSJ)

'Dollar May Become Biggest Loser From US Bond Buyback' Bloomberg article notes some market participants see the move as a turning point, with Washington taking a more active role in keeping its borrowing costs down. (BBG)

Scott Bessent has emerged as the most interventionist Treasury secretary in financial markets in decades, putting his credibility on the line to quell a potentially damaging rise in US borrowing costs. (BBG)

JPM strategists warned that markets may view the US Treasury’s effort to curb long-term borrowing costs as lacking credibility, potentially pushing up the term premium and yields over time. Strategists believe the move only addressed the symptoms and not the root cause: the US runs a deficit in an economy near full employment. (BBG)

Total U.S. debt has topped $40 trillion for the first time, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday, drawing fresh warnings that a fiscal crisis is brewing as ballooning costs for social safety-net programs and interest payments far outstrip revenues held back by tax cuts. (RTRS)

Trump on Wednesday called on Congress to pass a bill that would bring clearer definitions to the growing cryptocurrency sector, a top priority for industry executives who had gathered for an event at the White House with the president. (RTRS)

Japan's imports hit a monthly record in July as elevated oil prices drove up energy costs and inflationary pressures, while exports also climbed to an all-time high on a weaker yen and robust semiconductor-related demand. (RTRS)

Japan’s 20-year sovereign bond sale went smoothly, as yields near the highest in three decades attracted investors and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s fresh attempt to rein in borrowing costs supported sentiment. (BBG)

Global funds sold the largest amount of short and intermediate Japanese government bonds in two decades last month as persistent yen weakness fueled speculation of monetary policy tightening. (BBG)

China’s central bank used the daily reference rate to signal a desire for slower currency gains, after the yuan climbed to its strongest against the dollar in over three years. (BBG)

China has hit out at the European Union’s investigation into JD.com’s bid for German electronics retailer Ceconomy, saying it constituted “undue extraterritorial jurisdiction”. (FT)

A growing campaign to tax offshore wealth is forcing wealthy Chinese people to rethink their trust structures and investment holdings, lawyers and advisors say, as Beijing sharpens its focus on capital outflows and rule enforcement amid growing fiscal strains. (RTRS)

China kept benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 15th straight month in August on Thursday, in line with market expectations. (RTRS)

Demand for carry trades is pushing the Hong Kong dollar toward the weak end of its trading band against the greenback. (BBG)

Australian employment unexpectedly fell in July and the jobless rate hit its highest point since late 2021, data showed on Thursday, adding to signs of a cooling labour market and easing pressure for another interest rate hike. (RTRS)

A New Zealand party that could hold the balance of power after this year's election wants to bring in a basic income for almost all residents that will be funded by a new land tax, with its leader saying on Thursday that the policy would also curb runaway house prices. (RTRS)

German producer prices rose at their fastest pace in over three years in July, driven by higher costs for intermediate goods and energy, the federal statistics office said, adding to signs of renewed inflationary pressure in Europe's largest economy. (RTRS)

A growing number of bond investors are betting that the political drama will be more muted in Rome than in Paris ahead of elections in Italy and France next year. (BBG)

UK finally showing signs of productivity boost, say economists. (FT)

Norway is bracing for more tariffs from the Trump administration after talks on trade in Washington, the top civil servant at the Nordic country’s Foreign Ministry said. (BBG)

GEOPOLITICAL:

'Taiwan Floats Record Defense Budget, Sending Message to U.S. and China Plan lifts spending by 18%, above symbolic 1 trillion New Taiwan dollar threshold' WSJ article notes plan lifts spending by 18%, above symbolic 1 trillion New Taiwan dollar threshold. (WSJ)

The U.S. Army is phasing out a futuristic drone assault battalion established in Europe in January to master drone and ground robot warfare. The elimination of the unit is part of a broader back-to-basics approach ordered by Gen. Christopher LaNeve, the acting chief of staff. (WSJ)

China is responding to closer cooperation between the Philippines and Japan by expanding its presence east of Taiwan in an apparent bid to establish jurisdiction over waters in the Philippine Sea, according to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

A bankruptcy court delayed approval of Google’s $10 million purchase of Spirit Airlines’ data after former flight attendants objected. A labor union representing the former flight attendants warned that the deal could violate worker privacy to feed artificial intelligence models. (WSJ)

Coty expects to complete its consumer beauty strategic review by the end of 2026 as it continues to work through a plan aimed at strengthening its brand and financials. (WSJ)

Samsung Electronics is set to announce a new shareholder return policy later this month worth more than 100 trillion won ($71.75 billion), media reported on Thursday, as the company plans to share record profits with shareholders amid an AI-driven chip supercycle. (RTRS)

SK Hynix Inc. may follow up its new mega stock buyback with additional shareholder returns worth at least $130 billion through next year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (BBG)

Financing costs for global investors making leveraged bets on SK Hynix Inc.’s South Korean shares have halved in recent weeks, after the chipmaker’s US listing and a brutal selloff in stocks linked to artificial intelligence. (BBG)

SK Hynix and its labor union have reached a tentative wage and collective bargaining agreement, featuring a 6.3% salary increase and a significant shift in how employee performance bonuses are apportioned, according to Yonhap News. (BBG)

The CEO of Chinese humanoid robot unicorn Unitree said on Thursday the industry is edging towards a "ChatGPT moment" for robot brains. (RTRS)

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, China's biggest drugmaker by market value, reported a 0.34% rise in first-half net profit on Wednesday, as its generics business remained under pressure from bulk-procurement programs designed to lower healthcare costs. (RTRS)

A Shenzhen court sentenced China Evergrande Group founder Hui Ka Yan to life in prison. The court fined China Evergrande Group $1.31 billion and its flagship property unit, Hengda Real Estate, 7 billion yuan. (WSJ)

The U.K. antitrust watchdog cleared the proposed $1.2 billion acquisition of Huel by Danone. (WSJ)

ICYMI O/N - August 19th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 07:00:35 GMT

IRAN:

Trump told top administration envoys to halt their conversations with Iran, according to a US official cited by CNN. Additionally, White House officials have recently communicated to political allies that they are shifting their strategy — going from “hammer Iran ASAP” to “strangle them” over time. (CNN)

Iran has weighed attacking US military targets in Europe should Donald Trump escalate the war, according to FT sources, as Tehran considers its options to increase the stakes of the conflict. (FT)

UAE announced all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran have been halted until further notice. (UAE)

America's Arab allies feel caught in the middle, Gulf officials said to WSJ. While they don't want to see a resumption of higher-intensity conflict, they believe the lack of U.S. response is encouraging Iran to increase its attacks. Gulf states think Iran ultimately will respond militarily to rising economic pressure, bringing the conflict back to a boil regardless. (WSJ)

An Iran Army official said Gulf states “should know that nothing escapes our attention”. Said, “We warn that any assistance or facilitation provided to the aggressor US military constitutes participation with US military forces”. (IRNA)

Two Chinese-linked supertankers have U-turned in the Strait of Hormuz as risks to shipping remain elevated. (BBG)

MACRO:

A global selloff in semiconductor stocks deepened during Asia as investors retreated from one of the year’s hottest trades amid elevated bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Treasuries gained modestly following recent losses. (BBG)

President Trump said he would pause a 50% tariff on certain goods from Canada for three days while the two countries seek to finalize an agreement. (WSJ)

Bond traders are changing gears again. After a raft of data helped all but price out interest rate hikes for the rest of the year, wagers in the options market are looking to hedge the risk that the Federal Reserve pivots to cutting rates in 2027. (BBG)

'Inside Big Tech’s Frantic Race to Quell the Growing Backlash to AI' WSJ article notes tech companies are offering community investments, jobs guarantees and open houses to counter a growing public backlash against AI data centers. (WSJ)

Mizuho Financial Group Inc. expects the Bank of Japan to pick up the pace of interest-rate hikes, with the next one coming as soon as next month, as the weak yen and inflation prompt the central bank to act more quickly. (BBG)

China’s central and local governments are rolling out a new round of policies to boost consumption, including issuing vouchers, easing housing provident fund policies and accelerating pilot programs to develop new drivers for the sector. (Shanghai Securities News)

Some Chinese analysts expect the yuan to post moderate gains this year after it climbed to its strongest level against the dollar in over three years and a half. (Securities Daily)

Australian wages rose at a moderate pace for a fifth straight quarter in the June quarter as annual growth in the private sector slowed to the lowest in four years. (RTRS)

RBA's Hauser said Australia's central bank will have to raise interest rates again if upside risks to inflation crystallise, reiterating a hawkish warning after policymakers held rates steady for a second meeting. (RTRS)

South Korea’s household loan growth jumped the most in nearly five years in the second quarter as home purchases and unsecured borrowing picked up. (BBG)

The spread between South Korea’s three- and 10-year government bond yields has widened to the highest in nearly five years amid a global selloff in long-dated securities and expectations that Bank of Korea won’t raise interest rates aggressively. (BBG)

South Korea is looking to create a new financial center outside the capital Seoul, as the government moves to ease over-concentration in the greater metropolitan area, which is home to more than half the country’s population. (BBG)

UK inflation accelerated in July after energy bills surged, ending a short period of respite for hard-pressed British households. The increase (+2.9% Y/Y) was in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. (BBG)

Pay settlements by British employers inched down in the three months to June to a 10-month low, adding to signs of a softening labour market, a survey showed on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Barclays strategists now forecast European earnings will jump 16% in 2026 versus a previous estimate of 12% as they expect profit momentum to firm up in the second half. (BBG)

FTSE Russell will defer certain index changes for Indonesian equities until at least its December review, giving it more time to assess the effectiveness of market reforms by local authorities. (BBG)

GEOPOLITICAL:

US President Trump is pushing aides for a meeting as soon as this fall with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, U.S. officials said to the WSJ, seeking to revive a dramatic diplomatic quest from his first term to convince Kim to abandon his country’s nuclear weapons program. (WSJ)

EQUITIES:

WSJ reports OpenAI told investors its revenue grew by 18% from the first to the second quarter ($6.7bn in three months ended in June vs $5.7bn in Q1), while its losses deepened, results that disappointed some shareholders. OpenAI has told investors that its growth rate has picked up since the launch of a set of new models in July. (WSJ)

Alphabet is poised to pay just under 7% to borrow longer-dated funds in its debut Australian dollar bond deal, in potentially its highest-ever coupon, underscoring how broader demands for cash among hyperscalers around the world are feeding into more costly funding almost everywhere. (BBG)

Small batches of Nvidia's H200 chips have been allowed to enter mainland China, according to FT sources. ByteDance and Tencent have each received about 10,000 H200 processors in recent weeks, while a few other Chinese technology firms could soon secure similar shipments. (FT)

Intel Malaysia took over some advanced packaging for TSMC due to a surge in orders for CoWoS packaging by a major mutual client, Asian media reports, adding ASE, Unimicron, Gudeng Precision and others are also expected to benefit from the move. TSMC is expected to ship more advanced chips as the packaging bottleneck eases. (UDN via @dnystedt)

Anthropic has been preparing to give CEO Dario Amodei and other co-founders a class of stock with extra voting power to help insulate them from external shareholder pressure, the Information reported on Tuesday, citing two people familiar with the matter. (RTRS)

Meta Platforms rejected accusations by U.S. states that it intentionally sought to addict children to its Facebook and Instagram platforms in pursuit of profit, at the start of a trial that could reshape some of the most popular apps on the planet. (RTRS)

Cerebras Systems introduced a new speedier computer built with the company’s chips, saying the device will give it a wider advantage over Nvidia Corp. equipment. (BBG)

Disney and its ABC unit sued the FCC on Tuesday to block an early review of licenses for eight ABC stations, arguing that the Trump administration is trying to punish the network over its broadcast content. (RTRS)

SK Hynix announced after the close it would buy back 40 trillion won ($28.6 billion) worth of shares as part of a shareholder return plan, boosting shares off lows in post market trade. (BBG)

SK Hynix's South Korean labour union is finalising the wording of a tentative wage deal with management and will brief members on the terms Wednesday afternoon, according to a Reuters source. (RTRS)

Chinese humanoid-robot maker Unitree surged in its trading debut as investors snapped up shares of a company seen as a champion of Beijing’s push to dominate robotics. (WSJ)

Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. moved closer to an initial public offering in China, following in the footsteps of rival CXMT Corp.’s near-record share sale. (BBG)

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing reported record profit and revenue for the second quarter as trading and listing activity in the Asian financial hub continued to gain momentum. (WSJ)

Carlsberg forecast full-year profit towards the upper end of its previous guidance range even as it missed half-year estimates, saying benefits from its 2025 purchase of Britvic were being delivered faster than expected. (RTRS)

ICYMI O/N - August 18th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 08:59:28 GMT

IRAN:

Oil prices rose for a third session on Tuesday as prospects receded for a deal to end the Middle East war. (RTRS)

The UKMTO received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty, with the remaining crew being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard. (RTRS)

The Yemeni army announced that over the past 24 hours, it has carried out 133 military operations against the capabilities and forces of the Houthi militias, a proxy group of the Islamic Republic. (Iran International)

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said on Tuesday the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the blockade is lifted, frozen assets are released, oil sanctions are removed, military threats and operations on all fronts end, and other conditions of the memorandum of understanding are met. He also called for unity amongst Iranians amid domestic economic struggles. (Tasnim)

Saudi Aramco resumed oil loading from inside the Strait of Hormuz last week and has more tankers waiting to load as the state energy giant offers spot heavy crude cargoes, according to shipping data and trade sources cited by Reuters. The resumption of Saudi exports could help ease tight supply of heavier grades that produce more residue fuel which can be used to refuel ships or processed further at refineries, to yield higher quality fuels such as gasoline and diesel.(RTRS)

Two Chinese shipping giants (COSCO and CMES) have stopped sending oil tankers through two Middle East chokepoints amid ongoing conflict and are instead collecting oil cargoes outside the Gulf, according to three industry executives, tanker trackers and a ship broker cited by Reuters. (RTRS)

Earnings for a supertanker procuring crude oil from within the Persian Gulf to Asia are nearing a two-month high, as exporters hunt for more vessels to deliver the fuel via the Strait of Hormuz even as the security situation remains uncertain. (BBG)

A fuel tanker trying to enter the Persian Gulf has made an erratic series of turns and come to a halt near Iran’s Qeshm Island. It’s now at a standstill in the northern part of the waterway that has served as a route for transits approved by Iran. That came as the country’s semi-official Fars news agency reported Monday that a tanker belonging to a UAE company, which it didn’t name, was detained in the strait, adding that ships must pay for transits through Hormuz. (BBG)

Airlines are locked in a “stand-off” over whether to cut ticket prices as jet fuel costs that soared during the Iran war begin to ease. (FT)

Libya needs as much as $40bn of investment to develop its oil and gas resources as it seeks to restore itself as one of the world’s major crude producers, according to the head of its state oil company. (FT)

MACRO:

U.S. 30-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level since 2007 on Tuesday as stalled talks to end the U.S.-Iran war and worries of an imminent escalation sent oil prices above $90 a barrel, fanning fears of inflation and jolting markets. (RTRS)

Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fell in June from the previous month, led by declines in the stockpiles owned by Japan and China, according to monthly TIC flow data. (BBG)

Yardeni Research says there's no reason to panic on the US bond market yet, despite growing signs of unease over rising government debt. Yardeni is sticking with its view that the US bond yield should continue to trade in a normal range of 4%-5%, without causing any adverse consequences for the economy and corporate earnings. (BBG)

Investor exposure to global stocks is the highest in almost five years, with a majority predicting continued economic growth, according to a Bank of America survey. (BBG)

Allocation to US equities improved for a third straight week as new risk flows underpin the rally in the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100, according to Citigroup strategists. The team led by David Chew says positioning remains constructive across the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000. “Short-squeeze dynamics are becoming less influential as short exposure has been reduced across several major markets”. (BBG)

Trump administration officials are flooding Iowa in hopes of bolstering GOP candidates facing strong challenges from Democrats in November’s midterm elections. (WSJ)

Japan’s five-year government bond auction Tuesday saw the strongest demand since June 2025, as a global rout in long-term debt spurred demand for shorter maturities. (BBG)

Net sales of foreign exchange by Chinese companies fell to a eight-month low in July, suggesting a key source of support for the yuan is fading. (BBG)

Macro hedge funds in China including Bridgewater Associates LP’s local unit emerged from the July selloff bruised but not defeated, holding on to their annual gains after a wild stock market selloff. (BBG)

South Korea denied a local media report that the government is discussing a semiconductor project as the first investment under its $350 billion commitment to the US. (BBG)

A measure of Australian consumer sentiment brightened for a second month in August as mortgage holders became less concerned about the risk of further increases in interest rates, a survey showed on Tuesday. (RTRS)

Germany’s borrowing costs are poised to hit a 15-year high in a major sale of long-dated bonds as investors demand greater compensation for lending to increasingly indebted governments still grappling with inflation. (BBG)

Investors are turning bearish on French government bonds, as politicians ready for a fight over the 2027 budget before next year’s presidential election. (BBG)

UK employers shed more workers in July and job vacancies hit a fresh five-year low as demand for staff remained tepid in the face of heightened uncertainty from events at home and abroad. (BBG)

British grocery price inflation eased to its lowest level since October 2024 in August, market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator said on Tuesday, offering more respite to households grappling with elevated living costs. (RTRS)

Most British businesses say artificial intelligence has created new roles, according to a survey that suggests firms are moving beyond experimentation and starting to reshape hiring around the technology. (BBG)

Copper was headed for another day of turbulent trading after a key indicator of short-term supply tightness on the London Metal Exchange spiked. (BBG)

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Tuesday the government was considering reforming its consumption tax regime to make it more progressive and efficient, including potentially reintroducing aspects of a broad-based goods and services tax (GST). (RTRS)

GEOPOLITICAL:

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung called for swift progress in consultations with the US on the country’s plan to acquire its first nuclear-powered submarine after Trump ordered curbs on joint military drills with the ally. (BBG)

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit South Korea for two days from Wednesday, stepping up engagement with Seoul as President Donald Trump sows doubts about Washington’s reliability in the region. (BBG)

Russia warned the UK would face “consequences for which it will have to answer” after reports that Kyiv used drones made by British companies for strikes inside Russian territory. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

Anthropic PBC is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $65 billion based on its current performance, according to Bloomberg sources, up more than sevenfold from its pace at the end of last year. (BBG)

Tesla has told employees it is gearing up for a public launch of Cybercab, starting with a rollout in Austin, Texas, as soon as this month, the Information reported on Monday, citing people with knowledge of the plans. (RTRS)

China is pulling the plug on an older version of Microsoft Corp.’s Windows tailored for government agencies, taking another step toward rooting out the world’s most popular PC software in a broader effort to reduce its dependence on foreign technology. (BBG)

L3Harris Technologies has replaced Christopher Kubasik as chairman and chief executive after an investigation determined he violated the defense contractor’s code of conduct. (WSJ)

Paramount Skydance on Monday asked a U.S. judge to require a dozen states challenging its acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery to post a $1.88 billion bond to address the costs of delay in completing a tie-up. (RTRS)

Softbank Group is preparing to issue ¥1T in retail bonds ($6.3bln), marking the largest such offering by a Japanese company, according to Nikkei. The proceeds are intended to fund the company's ongoing investments in artificial intelligence amid intensifying global competition. (Nikkei)

The proceeds are intended to fund the company's ongoing investments in artificial intelligence amid intensifying global competition.

Situational Awareness sold shares in Japan’s Taiyo Yuden Co. to Citadel and other investors when it offloaded part of its stake this month, it said in a filing. (BBG)

Crypto futures contracts tracking Chinese humanoid robot maker Unitree Robotics have soared ahead of the stock’s debut Wednesday, suggesting it is worth more than four times its $9 billion initial-public-offering valuation. (BBG)

Chinese robotics startup Lumos Robotics is considering a further fundraising round and aims to begin preparing for a possible stock-market listing next year, its founder said, betting that factory cost savings rather than flashy humanoid demonstrations will determine which companies survive China's robot boom. (RTRS)

BHP Group reported a 9% increase in annual net profit and an even bigger gain in underlying earnings as prices of copper, now its main profit engine, surged to record highs. (WSJ)

ICYMI O/N & WEEKEND - August 17th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:52:23 GMT

IRAN:

Bloomberg reports Middle Eastern oil producers are continuing to shuttle large volumes of crude out of the Persian Gulf, helping to keep prices low and prevent an energy-driven inflation spike despite the ongoing Iran war. Reports cites sources saying volumes are higher than market estimates of 4mln BPD. (BBG)

WSJ reports Arab intelligence officials have picked up evidence—including communications between Iran and militia allies in countries such as Yemen and Iraq—of a strategic shift inside the country’s hard-line leadership to get their forces ready to widen the war and raise the costs for the U.S. Alarming weaker Gulf countries like Kuwait, Iran’s leaders are increasingly talking about offensive operations on enemy territory. (WSJ)

The IRGC has devised new plans for further escalation including pre-emptive strikes, according to Iranian officials and public statements. Among the options: sabotaging internet cables in the Persian Gulf, creating political unrest in countries with Shia communities such as Kuwait and Bahrain, and potentially even ground operations in Kuwait. (WSJ)

Iranian Foreign Ministry rejected reports of a fixed 60-day deadline under the Islamabad MoU with the US, saying the agreement contains no such provision and that alleged violations have made any 60-day timeline irrelevant. He added that the negotiations are prolonged by the complexity of the issue, involvement of multiple actors and attempts by some countries to undermine the process. (Middle East press)

Iran and Oman appear to be edging closer to a deal on how the Strait of Hormuz should be managed, agreeing on routes through the key waterway. (BBG)

The Pakistani and Qatari mediators continue to exchange messages between the U.S. and Iran but without any significant progress, regional sources told Axios. Some of those sources believe the Pakistanis are giving more optimistic readouts than the talks justify in an effort to create a sense of momentum that could break the stalemate. (Axios)

Nechirvan Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan region in Iraq and a reported key mediator between the IRGC and the US, has recently sent messages to the White House offering to help restart U.S.-Iran negotiations, according to an Axios source. (Axios)

The Kurdistan Region’s Counter-Terrorism Directorate claimed that two suicide drones targeted the office of Masrour Barzani, the prime minister of Iraqi Kurdistan. The statement said the Kurdistan Region’s internal security organization headquarters was also targeted. (RTRS)

Iran Foreign Minister Araqchi said Iran had not decided to resume talks with the U.S. He told Iranian news outlet Shahrara News in an interview published on Saturday that Washington must meet conditions on the strait in order for shipping to resume in the waterway. (RTRS)

US President Trump urged Americans to accept slightly higher gasoline prices while the conflict continues. He said paying "a tiny little bit more for your gasoline" is worth the cost of ensuring "a very evil country" could not have a nuclear weapon. "After we finish defeating Iran ... pretty soon I'll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States," said Trump. (RTRS)

Frustration with Washington is growing in the Persian Gulf region, where U.S. allies are concerned that President Donald Trump is unable to manage diplomacy necessary to secure peace with Iran. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain are united in their aggravation, with some debating the utility of continuing to host large U.S. military installations on their territory. (WaPo)

Some Asian refiners are pushing back against Saudi Aramco’s request that they pick up their oil at Yanbu on the Red Sea, due to the difficulty of finding ships willing to sail through the dangerous waterway. (BBG)

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the weekend, data showed on Monday, following attacks on tankers. Five commodity vessels transited the strait on Saturday, with none registered for Sunday, ship-tracking data from Kpler showed, versus 31 for the prior weekend. (RTRS)

European natural gas futures have extended gains to hit the highest levels in three weeks. Europe is under pressure to replenish gas inventories with the start of its heating season less than two months away, and curbed supplies from the Middle East mean it has to compete more with other buyers in Asia for cargoes. (BBG)

Fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah flared in Lebanon over the weekend, the latest setback in efforts to end parallel wars in the Middle East that have dragged on for almost six months and disrupted global markets. (BBG)

MACRO:

The U.S. is preparing to tell dozens of countries they must pick sides in the artificial intelligence race with China, warning they will be excluded from a U.S.-led AI coalition if they also sign up for Beijing's competing framework, according to a U.S. official and an internal draft reviewed by Reuters. (RTRS)

Market bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are still too aggressive given that inflation in the world’s biggest economy is cooling, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (BBG)

'Big investors hunt for tomorrow's AI winners as capex angst fades' Reuters article notes investors believe the rally in AI-linked stocks that marked the latest earnings season has shifted the focus of the AI investment story from whether Big Tech's spending spree will pay off to the kind of companies that will deliver returns over the longer term. (RTRS)

'Bond Traders Are Agonizing Over $70 Billion of Shadow Credit Backstops For AI Companies' Bloomberg article notes investors are fretting over roughly $70 billion in phantom liabilities that don’t appear on major AI companies’ balance sheets, but could materialize at the worst possible time. (BBG)

Strain is spreading across private credit portfolios, with some of the largest funds taking writedowns and warning about problem loans. (FT)

Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House on Wednesday that will gather together high-level executives from crypto companies and prediction-market venues, according to a Bloomberg source. (BBG)

Californian billionaires have poured nearly $40mn in fresh money into the campaign against a proposed wealth tax that will be on the state’s ballot this November. (FT)

Foreign borrowers are ploughing into once-niche Asia-Pacific bond markets, demonstrating that it's not just Big Tech grabbing funding wherever it can in a world of rising uncertainty and record borrowing. (RTRS)

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their largest outflows last week since the end of June, reversing a strong start to August. (BBG)

Japan’s economy managed to notch a third straight quarter of growth, but weaker spending slowed the pace of expansion, potentially complicating matters for the central bank. (WSJ)

The BoJ should raise its benchmark interest rate at every meeting, with the goal of taking the rate above 2% in order to narrow the rate differential with the US and ease pressure on the yen, a former Finance Ministry official (Takehiko Nakao) said. (BBG)

Japan’s bonds fell on fiscal concerns and growing speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in the coming months, pushing the 10-year yield to the highest since 1996. The 10-year rate rose as much as 5.5 basis points to 2.93%. (BBG)

China's industrial output growth slowed while retail sales grew less than expected in July, highlighting strains on the economy from weak domestic demand, extreme weather disruptions and the waning effect of state policies aimed at boosting consumption. (RTRS)

China's new home prices were stagnant in July, underscoring the challenges for a broad recovery of the housing sector as demand remained subdued. (RTRS)

Chinese steel production tumbled last month, putting the industry on track for the lowest annual total this decade as mills adjust to much weaker demand. (BBG)

China’s commercial banks’ net interest margin rose to 1.41% in the second quarter, up 0.01 percentage point from the first quarter, marking the first rebound of the indicator since the first quarter of 2022. (Economic Information Daily)

South Korea said discussions with the US over strategic investment projects are continuing, following a media report that Washington is pressing Seoul to accelerate the plans. (BBG)

Export-Import Bank of Korea will lend $1 billion to commodities giant Glencore Plc in exchange for copper supply to South Korean companies, as the country seeks to secure raw materials needed for the artificial intelligence boom. (BBG)

Copper advanced toward a record, with a key spread in London widening to extreme levels in a sign of competition for prompt supply. (BBG)

JPM CEO Jamie Dimon has urged John Healey not to use his first budget as chancellor to increase taxes on banks’ bumper profits. Dimon warned Healey in a phone conversation that higher levies could hit jobs, citing a fall in finance roles in New York that he blamed on the city’s tax regime. (Guardian)

Reform UK has vowed to slash £50bn from the welfare bill, including replacing the disability benefits system, if it wins the next general election. (FT)

German companies slashed investments in the United States to a three-year low in the first half of 2026, as Trump administration policies fed uncertainty between the transatlantic trading partners. (RTRS)

Germany's pension system is about to undergo a major reform, moving away from conservative securities and insurance policies to subsidize a broader range of investments. The private pension pot is set to double to some €500 billion in the coming decade, with managers like Deutsche Bank AG's DWS Group and Vanguard Group racing to have new products ready. (BBG)

Indian financial institutions have sold a record amount of dollar bonds so far this year, as lenders rush to capitalize on a central bank facility that lowers hedging costs on overseas borrowings. (BBG)

Thailand's economy slowed in the second quarter of 2026 but still beat forecasts, with stronger private investment offsetting softening consumption and a decline in public investment, official data showed on Monday, as the government raised its outlook for the year. (RTRS)

GEOPOLITICAL:

Trump said he would substantially reduce joint military exercises with South Korea, citing his relationship with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Trump instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to reduce the exercises, calling them costly and hostile to North Korea. He also criticized Seoul for not helping with the U.S. war against Iran. (WSJ)

Kyiv’s air-defence crews were left helpless during recent waves of Russian ballistic missile attacks for one simple reason: their Patriot interceptor launchers were empty. (FT)

EQUITIES:

Nvidia has revised its plans to support a proposed OpenAI data center project in Ohio and is now expected to initially guarantee less than $120 billion, down from the $250 billion previously discussed, according to WSJ sources. Deal is nearing finalization. (WSJ)

Nvidia is in talks to invest as much as $3 billion in SB Energy, a SoftBank Group subsidiary developing a massive planned Ohio data center project for OpenAI, the Information reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the discussions. (RTRS)

Nvidia has disclosed that it owns nearly 123mn shares in SpaceX, further highlighting the chipmaker’s entangled financial relationships with some of its biggest customers. (FT)

Anthropic is projecting 2028 revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion, according to two Reuters sources. The projection dwarfs the $47 billion revenue "run rate," reflecting the firm's current pace of business, that the company publicized as recently as May. (RTRS)

OpenAI is facing mounting internal upheaval after nearly half a dozen reorganisations this year, as chief executive Sam Altman races to prepare the ChatGPT maker for a potential blockbuster IPO that is now likely to be next year. (FT)

Apple will unveil a foldable iPhone alongside the next-generation iPhone 18-series on Sept. 9 in the US, Asian media reports. (UDN via @dnystedt)

Alphabet is looking to raise about A$5 billion ($3.6 billion) in what would be its debut bond offering in Australia, according to Bloomberg sources, as US tech firms binge on debt to fuel AI spending. (BBG)

Jane Street took a $15 billion hit in July from its exposure to AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness and other tech stocks that were battered by the market selloff, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

Berkshire Hathaway said on Friday it boosted the size of its investment in Alphabet by 83% in the second quarter, making the parent of Google and YouTube its third-largest stock holding. (RTRS)

Stanley Druckenmiller completely dumped his stakes in Broadcom, Intel, and Micron, and added exposure to digital-infrastructure and crypto-mining companies that are expanding into AI and high-performance computing. (Bezinga)

Prices of Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates and epi-wafers are set to jump over 10% in the 4th quarter – the biggest price hike in history – as the AI-driven optical communications boom causes severe shortages, Asian press reports. (UDN via @dnystedt)

TSMC Arizona’s 2nm fab may arrive as much as four-quarters earlier than expected, media report, amid speedy progress on the chip giant’s 3rd fab (P3) in Phoenix. (UDN via @dnystedt)

Shein is eyeing a company valuation of around $25 billion in its Hong Kong IPO, according to Reuters sources, down from nearly $100 billion four years ago due to challenging business conditions. (RTRS)

Alibaba’s open-weight models have accumulated more than 3 billion global downloads in the past six months, eclipsing Meta Platforms Inc., Alphabet Inc. and domestic peers to become the world’s No. 1 artificial-intelligence model. (BBG)

Alibaba Group is selling its videogame business in a deal worth at least $1.5 billion as the Chinese company shifts its focus to artificial intelligence. (WSJ)

Geely Automobile, China’s second-largest electric-vehicle maker, recorded slightly lower net profit in the first half despite a surge in overseas sales, dragged by weaker demand in its home market. (WSJ)

AstraZeneca said it is ending the Phase 3 trial of volrustomig plus chemotherapy for metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer. (WSJ)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

Chinese Industrial Production Y/Y (Jul) 4.5% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 5.3%)
Chinese Retail Sales Y/Y (Jul) 0.6% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.0%)
Chinese Unemployment Rate (Jul) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. 5.0%)
Japanese GDP Capital Expenditure Prel. Q/Q (Q2) -1.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.7%)
Japanese GDP External Demand Prel. Q/Q (Q2) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
Japanese GDP Growth Annualized Prel. (Q2) 1.1% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 1.8%)
Japanese GDP Growth Rate Prel. Q/Q (Q2) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)
Japanese GDP Price Index Prel. Y/Y (Q2) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 3.2%)
Japanese GDP Private Consumption Prel. Q/Q (Q2) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.3%)
Japanese Industrial Production Final M/M (Jun) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 0.1%)
Japanese Industrial Production Final Y/Y (Jun) 4.9% (Prev. -2.1%)
Malaysian CPI M/M (Jul) 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
Malaysian CPI Y/Y (Jul) 1.8% (Prev. 1.9%)
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales M/M (Jul) -1.3% (Prev. -1.4%, Rev. -1.3%)
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales Y/Y (Jul) 3.4% (Prev. 1.3%)
New Zealand Food Inflation Y/Y (Jul) 1.9% (Prev. 2.5%)
Norwegian Trade Balance (Jul) 84.3 (Prev. 61.9)
Thai GDP Growth Rate Q/Q (Q2) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 0.7%)
Thai GDP Growth Rate Y/Y (Q2) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 2.8%)

ICYMI O/N - August 14th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:19:16 GMT

IRAN:

The US will soon announce what it bills as unprecedented economic measures against Iran, Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a Newsmax interview. Bessent said the move will be part of a “one-two punch” that includes the continued blockade of Iran’s ports. (BBG)

A tanker was struck by an uncrewed aerial vehicle while making an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the UKMTO said. The vessel sustained minor damage, while all crew were reported safe and accounted for, with no environmental impact reported. (RTRS)

Indian state-owned refiners are rushing to procure spot crude unusually far in advance as Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy assets and a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz make supplies increasingly uncertain. (BBG)

MACRO:

US President Trump announced a slate of tariffs to address a national-security threat posed by imports of drones and their components, particularly from China. The duties are tiered, with a 100% tariff on larger drones with militarily-sensitive abilities and a 25% levy on smaller drones. (WSJ)

Trump says he and Musk will never be as close as they once were, according to the president’s aides cited by WSJ in an article that profile's their rekindled relationship. They are talking again, roughly once a month, discussing AI, China and world events, people with knowledge of the calls said. (WSJ)

Fed's Goolsbee (non voter) said the latest U.S. inflation data has been a "little better," and he is hopeful that as the effects of tariffs and higher oil prices from the Iran war fade, inflation can continue to improve. (RTRS)

'AI-driven surge in bond yields could be next risk for markets and growth' Reuters article notes real yields have shot to their highest in more than a decade across major economies as AI companies and governments ramp up bond sales, raising risks for stock markets and the world economy. (RTRS)

'Hyperscaler AI borrowing binge shakes up foreign credit markets' FT article notes a flood of foreign currency bond issuance by Big Tech groups is shaking up the world’s smaller credit markets, pushing borrowing costs higher and causing local issuers to shift the timing of their deals. (FT)

Fitch affirmed the sovereign credit rating for the United States at "AA+" with a stable outlook, citing its large economy, high per-capita income and the U.S. dollar's status as the world's leading reserve currency. (RTRS)

A Canadian government source directly familiar with trade negotiations with the United States said to Reuters that talks were progressing well and Washington also wanted an agreement before a new U.S. tariff deadline on August 19. (RTRS)

The SEC canceled a Friday meeting where the agency was expected to unveil new plans for digital assets as landmark crypto legislation remains stalled in Congress. (BBG)

The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates as soon as September and is considering hiking more aggressively thereafter from the current pace of roughly twice a year, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

Japan may conduct joint yen intervention "at any time" and signal the chance of faster-than-expected interest rate hikes to stem the currency's falls, said Tokyo's former top currency diplomat Mitsuhiro Furusawa. (RTRS)

'Carry Traders Are Exploiting Intervention to Rebuild Yen Shorts' Bloomberg article notes hedge funds have halved their bearish yen bets, but some investors are starting to return to carry trades funded by the currency. (BBG)

'AI frenzy drives Chinese tech valuations to multiples of US peers' FT article notes backing from Beijing and an investor frenzy have driven valuations of Chinese tech stocks far higher than US peers as the country’s AI sector emerges as a serious challenger to Silicon Valley’s global dominance. (FT)

China’s central bank injected liquidity through overnight reverse repos on Friday, marking its first such operation in the middle of a month in a boost to bond bulls. (BBG)

'There Aren’t Enough Ships to Handle China’s Booming Car Exports' WSJ article notes a surge in car exports from China is outstripping the capacity of the global shipping industry, booking out specialized car carriers years ahead. (WSJ)

Chinese tourists are expected to make fewer overseas trips in the second half of the year than previously forecast as a gloomy economic outlook weighs on consumer sentiment. (BBG)

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s support rating fell to an all-time low, reflecting growing frustration over his housing policies that have failed to cool the country’s red-hot real estate market and a proposed property tax overhaul. (BBG)

Australia recorded a second quarter of sharp falls in home loans in the June quarter as higher borrowing costs and proposed changes to taxes on investment cut demand, another sign interest rate hikes were working to slow the economy. (RTRS)

Speculative investors are increasingly betting the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates again in November as inflation remains above the central bank’s target. (BBG)

New Zealand's manufacturing activity continued to expand in July, though at a slower pace, as sentiment weakened after the conflict in the Middle East pushed costs higher for businesses, and consumers remained cautious about spending. (RTRS)

New Zealand annual immigration continues to show signs of a tentative recovery, rising to a 17-month high in June as fewer people departed. (BBG)

London’s copper market looks to be tightening up, suggesting that benchmark prices have the potential to challenge their record in fairly short order. (BBG)

Nigel Farage is returning to Parliament after a comfortable election win over a satirical candidate dressed as a trash can. (BBG)

UK PM Burnham is expected to focus on cutting business rates for smaller companies in the October budget, while shifting taxes on to larger firms, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

Swiss growth momentum surged to the fastest pace since 2021, highlighting the economy’s resilience to higher energy costs and lingering trade uncertainty. (BBG)

Argentina’s central bank is easing longstanding restrictions on dollar lending, allowing banks to extend foreign-currency credit to companies with revenue in pesos, as President Javier Milei’s government seeks to boost credit and economic activity. (BBG)

Malaysia's central bank said on Friday the country could see economic growth of around 5% this year, on the upper end of official projections, following a better-than-expected performance in the second quarter. (RTRS)

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto said on Friday that a new state export firm will monitor key commodity shipments and its role will be expanded, but said it would not take over control of exports. (RTRS)

GEOPOLITICAL:

An overnight drone strike sparked a fire at Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga, a key gateway for energy and commodity exports, as Ukraine intensifies its campaign against the country’s port infrastructure. (BBG)

Several regions of Russia are facing fuel shortages again after Ukraine resumed almost daily attacks on oil refineries in the country. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

OpenAI is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $40 billion based on its current performance, according to Bloomberg sources, roughly doubling its run rate from the end of 2025. Revenue has accelerated in recent months, driven in part by the growth of its AI coding software. (BBG)

Applied Materials delivered an estimate-beating forecast that still got a lukewarm reaction from investors. Managment said customer visibility has improved and expects another strong growth year in 2027. (BBG/TMTB)

Reddit Inc. will join the S&P 500 next week as part of an off-cycle change, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Thursday, sending the social networking platform’s shares surging more than 10% after the bell. (BBG)

Nvidia’s next generation chip platform, Feynman is ahead of schedule, will use TSMC’s A16 process, and CPO (co-packaged optics), DigiTimes reports, with TSMC full speed ahead to meet 2028 mass production. (DigiTimes via @dnystedt)

Goldman Sachs is in talks with potential investors about participating in Nvidia's $500 billion AI financing initiative, according to Reuters sources. U.S. insurers, money managers and banks are expected to form the core investor base for the financing, while asset managers plan to retain a sizable share of the financing. (RTRS)

Apple has trained a large language model specifically for the China market, according to Reuters sources, a departure from the iPhone maker's strategy of relying on third-party models to power AI features in the country. The AI model was developed in partnership with Alibaba Group and trained with the Chinese tech giant's support. Expected to launch in China in the coming months. (RTRS)

WSJ profiled Cami Clark, wife of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who acts as a key strategic adviser and sounding board for the artificial-intelligence chief. Clark previously co-founded a women-focused porn company and unsuccessfully pitched convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein to invest in it. (WSJ)

Z.ai Co. is set to upgrade its flagship AI model, adding to a series of Chinese open-weight offerings seeking to outcompete Anthropic PBC and OpenAI. (BBG)

'Chinese humanoid robot maker Unitree powers up for stellar Shanghai debut' Reuters article notes on private share platforms such as EquityZen, UpMarket and Hiive, Unitree shares are tipped to almost triple, while on crypto exchanges Hyperliquid and Gate, derivative trades point to a jump of almost four times. (RTRS)

China’s space-related companies are on the largest hiring spree in the sector’s history as it grows rapidly and a string of missions are conducted. (Securities Times)

Chinese autonomous driving firm Pony.ai announced on Friday plans to deploy more than 2,000 robotaxis in Europe under an expanded partnership with Uber. (RTRS)

Han Bo-hyung, a deep-learning and computer-vision specialist, and Hahn Tai-rin, a data-engineering expert, have joined Samsung Electronics to strengthen the company's artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. (Korea Times)

BP and the United Arab Emirates’ XRG have been awarded an exploration and production license for a Venezuelan offshore gas development. (WSJ)

Anglo American Plc has struck a yearlong supply deal with China’s state-backed iron ore buyer, joining BHP Group Ltd. among miners that have finalized an agreement with the group. (BBG)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

Finnish CPI M/M (Jul) 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
Finnish CPI Y/Y (Jul) 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%)
French CPI Final M/M (Jul) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. -0.3%)
French CPI Final Y/Y (Jul) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%)
Indian WPI Inflation Y/Y (Jul) 9.78% vs. Exp. 9.95% (Prev. 9.87%)
Malaysian GDP Q/Q Final (Q2) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.4%
Malaysian GDP Y/Y Final (Q2) 6.0% (Prelim. 5.8%)
New Zealand Business NZ PMI (Jul) 54.3 (Prev. 59.7)
Swiss GDP Growth Rate Flash Q/Q (Q2) 1.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)

ICYMI O/N - August 13th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:03:54 GMT

MACRO:

'Tariff Refunds Are Here—and Turbocharging Earnings' WSJ article notes Apple, Nike and FedEx are just a few companies recovering big sums relatively quickly, and some are passing at least a share on to customers. (WSJ)

Mexico is pushing the U.S. to lower tariffs on North American automobiles as part of talks to rework the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. (WSJ)

Japanese PM Takaichi’s government is supportive of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with the next move likely either in September or October, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

Japan's annual wholesale inflation remained elevated in July, data showed on Thursday, highlighting broadening price pressures and reinforcing market expectations of an interest rate hike in September. (RTRS)

China has shifted its money-market target rate to overnight from one-week and announced it will step up liquidity injections in the next few days, in a sign of tighter control and deeper involvement in managing super short-term interest rates. (RTRS)

South Korea’s central bank bought gold-related assets for the first time in 13 years, joining global reserve managers turning to the precious metal as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty. (BBG)

South Korea raised its cap on household debt growth and pledged more homes in the Greater Seoul area, intensifying efforts to contain a relentless housing rally that’s becoming a political liability for President Lee Jae Myung. (BBG)

RBA's Kent warned of the risk of further policy tightening, saying inflation threats remain on the upside and "a lot of things" would need to go right to avert another rate increase. (RTRS)

Britain's economy unexpectedly grew in June as companies were boosted by a respite in the surge in energy prices caused by the Iran war, the start of the men's soccer World Cup and hot weather, official data showed on Thursday. (RTRS)

Oil companies operating in the declining North Sea will have to rapidly speed up the decommissioning of their wells as more fields run down, an industry regulator has said. (FT)

Water companies in England and Wales got permission to increase spending and raise bills in a draft decision by regulator Ofwat. (BBG)

Voters cast their ballots on Thursday in a local English election pitting Nigel Farage against his main challenger, a comedian dressed as a trash can, in a test of opposition to the Reform UK leader's brand of populist politics. (RTRS)

Britain's housing market remained sluggish last month but there was a recovery in confidence about the sales outlook, a survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed on Thursday. (RTRS)

Codelco expects to produce less copper this year as the Chilean state-owned miner grapples with setbacks at its mines and projects, according to a Bloomberg source. (BBG)

Foreign banks are seeking a bigger foothold in Vietnam by extending hard-currency loans to local lenders squeezed between rising domestic funding costs and government pressure to expand credit to meet ambitious economic growth targets, bankers and analysts said. (RTRS)

GEOPOLITICAL:

Thousands of North Korean operatives are using fake and stolen identities to land remote jobs at U.S. companies—funneling hundreds of millions of dollars back to the regime. (WSJ)

Venezuelan authorities plan to focus on reconstruction efforts and recovering gold reserves worth an estimated $4 billion held in the Bank of England's underground vaults, National Assembly chief Jorge Rodriguez said on Wednesday, as monthly inflation surged to 20%. (RTRS)

EQUITIES:

Anthropic investors expect the AI start-up to float at a valuation of $2tn or more in October. (FT)

Anthropic is in talks to buy the artificial intelligence startup Decart AI for about $6 billion, according to Bloomberg sources. Decart makes so-called world models, which aim to simulate the physical world, as well as software that can reduce the cost of training AI by helping chips work more efficiently. (BBG)

Cisco Systems reported a jump in net income in the July quarter as the company continued to receive billions in orders from artificial-intelligence hyperscalers. Robbins said the AI build-out is moving so fast that “most customers know that if they pause or slow down they run the risk of being way behind.” (WSJ)

Alphabet chief scientist Demis Hassabis discussed forming an independent AI safety entity before stepping down as Google DeepMind CEO. Hassabis discussed aspects of his plan with Trump administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (WSJ)

Research shows American AI models are unwittingly censoring political topics and echoing authoritarian propaganda. Asking politically sensitive questions in Chinese is much more likely to yield a pro-Beijing response than asking them in English. (WSJ)

Cerebras Systems swung to a loss in the second quarter but still lifted its outlook for the full year. Cerebras’s core gross margin remains under pressure from the company’s decision to rent back some of its own systems from cloud customers in order to meet demand for its inference services, the CFO told analysts. (WSJ)

Coherent beat estimates for fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday and forecast first-quarter revenue and profit above analysts' expectations, betting on strong demand for its data center and communications products. (RTRS)

Apple is discussing new deals with publishers to use their content to deliver current news and information, part of an effort to improve its AI-powered Siri voice assistant. (WSJ)

Ford Motor plans to move production of some Lincoln models from China to the U.S. beginning in 2030, Ford's CEO told Reuters, saying the move was difficult but necessary to strengthen the U.S. auto manufacturing base. (RTRS)

A factory jointly owned by General Motors and LG Energy Solution in northeast Ohio is scheduled to restart production of battery cells next week after a seven-month shutdown. (RTRS)

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. is delaying the debut of its Delta-class spaceplane, pushing the first expected full-power flight of the upgraded tourism vehicle until February of 2027. (BBG)

Lambda, an AI cloud-computing provider backed by Nvidia Corp., wrapped up a $926 million leveraged-loan deal as that market becomes a new front in the borrowing binge to finance the artificial intelligence buildout. (BBG)

China’s YMTC edged out Japan’s Kioxia Holdings in flash memory shipments during the June quarter, a sign that Chinese chipmakers are benefiting from AI-driven shortages. (BBG)

Lenovo Group kicked off its fiscal year on a strong note with record-high revenue thanks to robust artificial-intelligence infrastructure demand and its resilient personal-computer business. (WSJ)

Shein is planning to make its stockmarket debut in Hong Kong on August 28, according to a Reuters source. (RTRS)

Kokusai Electric shares rose as much as 7.6% after the Japanese chip gear maker was added to the MSCI indexes in a quarterly review. Shares of Seibu Holdings dropped after being removed. (BBG)

Korean media reported that Samsung Electronics is expected to unveil concrete shareholder return measures, including a special dividend, along with its next three year policy, as early as this month. SK Hynix is also expected to unveil its own plan within the third quarter. (@jukan05)

Thyssenkrupp raised the lower end of its profit outlook for 2026, boosted by its steel, marine and materials trading units as well as cost cuts related to its ongoing efficiency programme. (RTRS)

Ladbrokes owner Entain beat first-half profit expectations on Thursday, as group-wide cost cuts and a surge in player engagement during the FIFA World Cup helped it absorb the impact of higher UK gambling taxes. (RTRS)

Klarna Group Plc is rolling out memberships to its customers in Europe, offering rewards and credit card-like benefits in a bid to compete with companies including American Express Co. (BBG)

A.P. Moller-Maersk raised its full-year guidance on the back of higher earnings and improved visibility for the rest of the year despite the conflict in the Middle East. (WSJ)

Orsted reported on Thursday a second-quarter core profit above forecast and maintained its financial outlook for the year. (RTRS)

India's Larsen and Toubro said it secured an order to build an AI factory for Nvidia. The order is in the range of 100 billion rupees to 150 billion rupees (($1.05 billion - $1.57 billion), the company said. (RTRS)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

UK Business Investment Prel. Q/Q (Q2) 1.7% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.9%)
UK Business Investment Prel. Y/Y (Q2) 0.8% (Prev. -1.3%)
UK Construction Orders Y/Y (Q2) -18.1% (Prev. -11.9%)
UK Construction Output Y/Y (Jun) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.4% (Prev. -2.0%)
UK GDP 3-Month Avg (Jun) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%)
UK GDP M/M (Jun) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
UK GDP Y/Y (Jun) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.2%)
UK GDP Growth Rate Prel. Q/Q (Q2) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%)
UK GDP Growth Rate Prel. Y/Y (Q2) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.9%)
UK Goods Trade Balance (Jun) -23.01 vs. Exp. -20.5 (Prev. -21.08)
UK Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (Jun) -10.45 (Prev. -9.58)
UK Industrial Production M/M (Jun) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.7%)
UK Industrial Production Y/Y (Jun) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 1.0%)
UK Manufacturing Production M/M (Jun) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
UK Manufacturing Production Y/Y (Jun) 0.5% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 2.0%)
UK RICS House Price Balance (Jul) -30 vs. Exp. -30 (Prev. -33, Rev. -32)
UK Trade Balance (Jun) -5.537 (Prev. -1.044)

ICYMI O/N - August 12th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:01:10 GMT

IRAN:

Iran is going absolutely fine, President Donald Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews. “We totally control the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said, responding to their questions on the conflict in Iran “Right now, we’re in a very good position”. (BBG)

Pakistan official, cited by Al Arabiya, said it continues to activate direct and indirect diplomatic channels between the US and Iran; working to bring both sides to the negotiating table in Islamabad. Interior minister is said to have given an important message to Iran. (Al Arabiya)

A Pakistan official said "The 60 day’s [US/Iran MoU] deadline is approaching. There is still 5 days left. The deadline can be extended, we are not closing the chapter. Hope that parties return to dialogue". (X)

The tally of vessels tracked in the Strait of Hormuz fell to a one-week low of eight on Tuesday, shipping data showed, as owners avoided the key waterway amid continued hostilities in the Middle East. (RTRS)

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is offering to shuttle exports of Iraqi oil through the Strait of Hormuz, using its dark-transit playbook to transport Basrah and other crude to refiners in Asia, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

Prices for the busiest shipping lanes in the Panama Canal have hit a new record, as falling water levels linked to an intensifying El Niño and strong demand driven by the Iran war constrain traffic. (FT)

MACRO:

South Korean chipmakers rallied as risk appetite returned after last month’s rout and traders weighed a local media report that Singapore’s Temasek Holdings Pte plans to invest in Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. (BBG)

Trump is looking for new policy pledges he can present to voters ahead of the midterm election, according to a top economic aide and a former administration official cited by Bloomberg, including potentially calling on Congress to cut capital gains taxes and create an exemption for certain home sales. (BBG)

Fed's Collins (non-voter) said in the FT she would back a September interest rate rise if inflation remains high. (FT)

The Trump administration on Tuesday finalized a rule exempting U.S. companies and individuals from reporting beneficial ownership information to the Treasury Department's financial crimes unit, rolling back reporting requirements established under a 2021 law aimed at combating illicit finance. (RTRS)

RBC Capital strategists reiterate their positive view on the S&P 500 over the next year, saying that strong earnings growth and a solid GDP backdrop should help stocks withstand modestly higher interest rates and inflation challenges. (BBG)

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly won the Democratic nomination for governor in this battleground state, upsetting Democratic socialist Francesca Hong and delivering a significant blow to the party's insurgent far-left flank. (WSJ)

China’s drive to buy large volumes of US soybeans — a commitment under last year’s trade truce — risks being complicated by a lack of participation from the country’s private traders. (BBG)

China has authorized Deutsche Bank AG as the first non-Chinese lender that can settle yuan transactions in Europe, expanding its clearing network to promote the currency overseas. (BBG)

Signs of life are returning to the Shanghai free-trade zone’s bond market, which went quiet in late 2023 after Chinese authorities clamped down on excessive borrowing by local governments. (BBG)

China's real estate sector is facing a problem with expiring leases, with scores of office towers, shopping malls, and warehouses sitting on land with dwindling lease terms. Chinese officials are addressing the issue, with Shanghai and Guangzhou circulating guidelines on lease renewal, outlining the terms and costs of lease extensions. (BBG)

Yen traders are ramping up options market activity ahead of key US inflation data, turning to derivatives for flexibility amid a lack of consensus on the currency’s direction. (BBG)

With yields on long-term JGBs now rivalling those of U.S. Treasuries and German bunds, Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management has joined Daiwa Asset Management and Amova Asset Management in selling investment trusts focused on the super-long bonds. (RTRS)

Japanese business confidence improved in August as manufacturers benefited from robust semiconductor demand while non-manufacturers were supported by strong domestic consumption, the latest Reuters Tankan survey showed. (RTRS)

Nomura Securities raised its year-end target for Japan’s benchmark Topix to 4,400 from 4,200, reflecting an upward revision to its corporate earnings-per-share forecast on the back of price hikes, higher sales volumes and a weaker yen. (BBG)

South Korea expects to deploy more than 1 trillion won ($707 million) of fresh capital into a new sovereign wealth fund targeting AI and other strategic industries next year, joining a global push by governments to mobilize investment and gain an edge in high-tech sectors. (BBG)

South Korea’s 30-year government bond yield climbed to a record, as elevated energy prices and weaker demand from life insurers intensified pressure on the debt market. (BBG)

Singapore Exchange Ltd. is exploring offering a broader suite of exchange-traded funds and stepping up partnerships across markets as it seeks to bolster its position as Southeast Asia’s key multi-asset exchange. (BBG)

Australia's industrial umpire has approved new minimum standards requiring food and grocery delivery workers to be paid hourly rates above the national minimum wage and covered by injury insurance while on the job. (RTRS)

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon survived a leadership challenge Wednesday, quelling for now a messy bout of infighting less than three months before a general election. (BBG)

UK PM Burnham will hold an emergency government meeting on the UK’s latest heat wave as the country’s grapples with widespread drought and proliferating wildfires. (BBG)

The UK’s power grid operator warned that electricity supplies could be tight Wednesday evening, as an eclipse blocks sunlight during an intense heat wave. (BBG)

Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, posted a record profit of 1.75 trillion Norwegian crowns ($184.3 billion) for the first half of the year, lifted by technology stocks, it said on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Eskom is courting the world’s biggest tech companies about providing power to their data centres, as South Africa’s state-owned utility seeks new customers for its excess energy after ending years of rolling blackouts. (FT)

GEOPOLITICAL:

North Korea fired a ballistic missile on Wednesday toward the sea off the ‌Korean Peninsula's east coast, South Korean and Japanese authorities said, days ahead of major joint military exercises by Seoul and Washington long denounced by Pyongyang. (RTRS)

Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, home to major oil and grain terminals and a naval base, caught fire following a massive drone attack. (BBG)

Ukraine has paused drone strikes on oil tankers using Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk after a request from U.S. Vice President JD Vance. (FT)

Russia has started importing gasoline from as far away as India, as Ukrainian attacks on its refineries trigger severe local shortages. (BBG)

Taiwan's government has condemned "dangerous" planned Chinese navy drills with an Indonesian warship off the island's east coast, saying Beijing was trying to create a false impression to the international community that it controls those waters. (RTRS)

China appears to be adding more capacity to store and fire missiles on its most advanced frigate model, satellite imagery shows, as the world’s largest navy continues to close the gap with the US in firepower. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

CoreWeave soared in late trading after the AI spending frenzy spurred faster sales growth than anticipated, where the Co inked more than $25bln of new customer commitments in the quarter; backlog now at $104bln. (BBG)

Lumentum Holdings blew past earnings expectations after the closing bell on Tuesday, continuing the optical-networking company's blazing hot run. Shares were initally choppy after the results before rising after the call. (Barron's)

Super Micro Computer shares jumped after it gave a revenue forecast for the current quarter that topped analysts’ estimates, a sign the booming AI market continues to bolster sales of the company’s servers. (BBG)

Oracle has drawn up plans for a new round of job cuts to reduce payroll as it racks up billions in debt to fund AI infrastructure, according to Business Insider sources. (BI)

General Motors Co. has set a plan to guarantee the supply of as much as $4.5 billion in critical auto parts to safeguard the company from supply shocks caused by such events as extreme weather, natural disasters and cyberattacks. (BBG)

Aurora Cannabis is reviewing an unsolicited offer from rival cannabis company Curaleaf Holdings to be taken over for about $272 million, or $4 a share. (WSJ)

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has ordered Kalshi to keep operating despite a legal attempt by New York’s government to shut down its operations. (BBG)

Singapore’s Temasek plans to invest directly in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, Asia Business Daily reports, citing unidentified South Korean government offices. Temasek recently decided to invest in the two chipmakers and contacted the South Korean government as it considers the timing of the investments. (Asia Business Daily)

Samsung Electronics has been confirmed to have adopted Anthropic's large language model Claude, sharply reducing the time required for some semiconductor design and verification work, according to Korean media reports. (Chosun via @jukan05)

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. (Foxconn) reported a better-than-expected increase in quarterly profit, signaling robust global demand for AI hardware. (BBG)

TrendForce reports that in line with last week’s situation, the DRAM spot market continues to exhibit a sideways consolidation pattern. Transaction volumes remain relatively low, as buyers and sellers have yet to reach a consensus on pricing. (X)

Situational Awareness bought shares in Japanese server components maker Taiyo Yuden Co. in late June and then built up its stake to 11.62%, according to multiple filings by the artificial-intelligence hedge fund that narrowly avoided collapse last month. (BBG)

HSBC's global chief executive for insurance business, Edward Moncreiffe, is set to leave the bank after two decades with the lender, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

E.ON, Europe's largest energy grid operator, on Wednesday posted first-half core profit that came in slightly ahead of estimates, boosted by the group's division that caters to big industrial and municipal clients. (RTRS)

ABN Amro on Wednesday raised its guidance for commercial net interest income (NII) to €6.8 billion ($7.8 billion), up from €6.4 billion previously, as the bank beat market expectations across the board. (RTRS)

Danish wind turbine maker Vestas on Wednesday reported a higher-than-expected second-quarter adjusted operating profit, and raised the full-year outlook for its earnings margin. (RTRS)

Elliott Investment Management pressed Northern Star Resources for director changes on Wednesday, unveiling a slate of six possible candidates and inviting shareholder support after negotiations with Australia's largest gold miner stalled. (RTRS)

The owners of Australia’s biggest aluminum smelter, including Rio Tinto Group, are set to receive a government bailout to keep the plant operating as it grapples with high energy costs, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

ICYMI O/N - August 11th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Tue, 11 Aug 2026 07:45:50 GMT

IRAN:

WSJ article profile's Iran’s overhaul of its top security chiefs following the deaths of the previous leadership team. The appointments of seasoned hard-liners signal a determination to hold fast in a confrontation with U.S. President Trump. (WSJ)

Persian Gulf energy producers are concluding that Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz will become permanent, disrupting their oil and gas exports and global energy supplies indefinitely. (WSJ)

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to six on Monday, compared with a 10-day average of about 11 vessels, shipping data showed. (RTRS)

Shrinking regional oil stockpiles held by China’s independent refiners in Shandong province may spur increased buying of Iranian crude, offering Tehran a needed boost after a period of slow sales. (BBG)

Libya's NOC said on Tuesday it could declare force majeure and completely halt operations at the Zawiya refinery if drone attacks on oil assets in the city continued, after reporting a third such attack over Sunday and Monday. (RTRS)

MACRO:

President Trump’s media company said more than 10 customers have signed up to a real-time feed of top Truth Social accounts. The early sign-ups comprised primarily high-frequency trading firms paying between $60,000 and $100,000 a month. (WSJ)

U.S. officials on Monday said they are working closely with foreign investors to identify gaps in the U.S. manufacturing supply chain and to help small- and medium-sized businesses scale up to meet rising demand as foreign investments surge. (RTRS)

Barclays strategists stick with factor preferences of US growth and large-cap stocks as AI spending supports earnings; in Europe, they continue to favor value stocks and say momentum may recover gradually after a sharp selloff. (BBG)

BoJ may consider an additional interest rate increase at its next policy meeting September 17th-18th, following a hike in June, in response to rising risks of higher inflation, according to informed sources cited by Jiji. (Jiji)

The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday (as expected) but continued to warn that inflation remains too high, especially against the backdrop of war in the Middle East. Governor Bullock struck a hawkish tone by saying that she personally thought it was "quite possible" that rates may need to go up again, keeping alive the risk of a fourth rate increase this year. (WSJ/RTRS)

Australian business conditions improved marginally in July while confidence remained fragile, a survey showed on Tuesday, with firms citing cost pressures even as renewed tensions in the Gulf were sending oil prices higher again. (RTRS)

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has summoned his lawmakers to an unscheduled caucus meeting as questions over his leadership intensify less than three months before a general election. (BBG)

Since August, many Chinese provinces including Hainan, Henan and Zhejiang have issued or plan to give out a new round of consumption vouchers covering spending such as travel, gadgets, home appliances, as well as eating out. (Securities Daily)

The banking industry in China has deployed direct settlement services for minor currencies, eliminating the dollar as an intermediary and reduced corporate exchange costs to help Chinese companies do business overseas. (China Securities Journal)

China has issued 1.79 trillion yuan ($265 billion) of bonds to replace outstanding hidden local government debt as of Monday, or about 90% of the 2 trillion yuan limit set for the year, Securities Daily reported, citing Wind data. (Securities Daily)

The yuan’s recent calm run may be nearing an end as September approaches, with typically strong fall exports and other seasonal factors expected to lift the Chinese currency, analysts say. (BBG)

Hong Kong’s main technology stock benchmark (Hang Sang Tech) is set for a revamp to include more companies representing the fast-growing AI and robotics sectors. Plans to increase the number of constituents in the tech gauge to 50 from 30. (BBG)

Trading firms such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities may be included in reforms being considered by Hong Kong that are set to trigger “big bang” tax cuts for asset managers. (FT)

South Korea's central bank will raise interest rates further to respond to persistent inflationary pressure, the outgoing deputy chief said on Tuesday. (RTRS)

Singapore raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 on Tuesday, saying a stronger-than-expected global artificial intelligence investment boom and a milder impact from the Middle East war should support activity in the second half of the year. (RTRS)

UK PM Burnham is to crack down on vape and betting shops in an effort to rejuvenate British high streets, with councils to be given extra powers to curb unwanted retailers and ‘bring town centres back to life’. (FT)

British consumers spent more on food and in pubs last month on the back of England's run to the World Cup semi-finals and hot weather boosted clothing sales but they remained wary of big outlays, according to surveys published on Tuesday. (RTRS)

Many of Germany’s most economically powerful states have suspended a Sunday driving ban for lorries in an emergency move to try and soften the trade disruption caused by historically low water levels on the Rhine river. (FT)

Indian lenders need to accelerate adoption of artificial intelligence by investing in technology and infrastructure besides training workers to upskill, central bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Tuesday. (BBG)

The Philippine government plans to borrow 3.3 trillion pesos ($54 billion) next year, up by a fifth, as it seeks to revitalize an economy rocked by the conflict in the Middle East and a corruption scandal. (BBG)

Currency traders are stepping up bullish options bets on the Taiwan dollar, signaling a shift in sentiment after the currency suffered its worst July since 2015. (BBG)

Colombia’s inflation rate cooled last month, offering some relief to the central bank after policymakers recently surprised investors by keeping borrowing costs unchanged. (BBG)

GEOPOITICAL:

The largest oil refinery in Russia’s Far East caught fire on Tuesday following a technical incident, with its operations unaffected, according to local officials. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

Nvidia reached deals with some of Wall Street’s largest firms aimed at raising massive amounts of capital to help the chip maker’s customers finance the cost of computing power. The firms aim to deploy over $500 billion of outside capital in the coming years. (WSJ)

Anthropic is meeting with potential investors to shore up confidence in what could be the largest IPO of all time. Investors have pressed Anthropic on challenges including cheaper Chinese AI systems, Trump administration tensions and data-center opposition. Anthropic told some investors it plans to push further into healthcare and biology. Co. is targeting September or early October IPO. (WSJ)

Anthropic has struck a $9.1 billion deal with Riot Platforms Inc., a Bitcoin mining company that recently began selling AI data center capacity, according to Bloomberg sources, underscoring the Claude maker’s efforts to secure enough computing power to meet its customers’ demand. (BBG)

OpenAI has completed a deal to help employees sell roughly $7 billion worth of shares in the company ahead of a possible Wall Street debut, according to a Bloomberg source. The deal valued the startup at $852 billion, unchanged from its most recent funding round. (BBG)

OpenAI’s head of ethics has left the start-up less than a year after joining, following a number of departures by safety researchers amid growing scrutiny over how the company develops its AI models. (FT)

Intel has raised $20 billion in an upsized share sale, according to a statement, a third more than it was targeting when it announced the deal Monday morning. The chipmaker priced the offering at $95 per share, a discount of 6.5% to Friday’s closing price. The share sale drew more than $100 billion in demand, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

Amkor Technology, a provider of outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing services, is considering options including selling a stake in its China business, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

AST SpaceMobile shares saw downside in after hours trade after it reaffirmed its full-year revenue outlook, as the satellite operator continues to build out a space-based cellular network aimed at connecting ordinary smartphones directly to satellites. (WSJ)

Hims & Hers Health raised its revenue projections for the year, though higher costs swung it to a loss in the second quarter. (WSJ)

Rocket Lab narrowed its loss and reported rising revenue in the second quarter as its backlog ballooned. (WSJ)

President Trump’s media business recorded a 10-fold increase in losses in the second quarter, dragged down by declines in the mark-to-market valuation of its digital assets. (WSJ)

Price hikes for semiconductor packaging are outpacing those for chip foundry work and increases throughout the chip supply chain will continue into the 2nd half of 2026, media report, citing executives on 2nd quarter earnings calls and unnamed industry sources. (DigiTimes via @dnystedt)

Samsung SDI has acquired General Motors’ 49.99% stake in SynergyCells, a $3.5 billion battery joint venture in the U.S., ending that joint venture amid sluggish electric-vehicle demand. (WSJ)

Naver’s US investment arm invested ~10b won in Anthropic around end-2025 through a US venture capital fund and is reviewing additional investment before Anthropic’s future IPO, Korea Economic Daily says, citing unidentified industry officials. (Economic Daily)

South Korean conglomerate Hanwha has made a nonbinding offer valued at more than $1 billion to buy Austal USA, a builder of ships and submarine parts for the U.S. Navy. (WSJ)

According to Chinese media reports, CXMT’s 17nm DDR5 yield has already exceeded 90%. CXMT products are currently available in relatively large volumes in the spot market in South China, allowing brands to procure chips based on their specific pricing and specification requirements. (@jukan05)

Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s early success with WorkBuddy may give the Chinese Internet giant a chance to catch up after lagging peers in the artificial intelligence race for the past few years. (BBG)

The highly anticipated initial public offering of Unitree Robotics drew huge demand from retail investors as China’s leading humanoid robot maker opened books for an offering that’s set to give it a market valuation of $9 billion. (BBG)

Uniper SE has identified about 10 sites across Europe that could be sold or leased for data-center development, as the German utility looks to capitalize on surging demand for AI infrastructure. (BBG)

Barrick Mining reported a rise in second-quarter profit, buoyed by higher bullion prices, and struck a $1.95 billion deal with Newmont to settle disputes over Nevada Gold Mines. (RTRS)

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. plans to manufacture rare-earth magnets in India, according to Bloomberg sources, as the engineering giant rides a government push to reduce a reliance on imports and loosen China’s stranglehold over the critical industrial component. (BBG)

ICYMI O/N - August 7th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:34:00 GMT

IRAN:

US President Trump told reporters that he believed the war with Iran would be over soon and said the armed forces were experiencing issues with supplies of some weapons. "I think it's going to end pretty soon. I don't think they can go much longer," Trump said.

A senior Saudi official said intelligence reports from Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and regional countries indicated Iraqi militias coordinating with Yemen's Houthis were preparing imminent attacks on the kingdom under the guidance of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Said the attacks could target civilian and economic infrastructure, including energy facilities, ports and airports. (RTRS)

WSJ reports Arab mediators fear Iranian negotiators lack the clout to guarantee compliance with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (WSJ)

President Trump has ordered new investigations into the disclosures of the Pentagon’s munitions stockpile, administration officials said to the WSJ, an escalation of his effort to battle damaging revelations about the Iran war. (WSJ)

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dwindled to 33 vessels from Monday to Thursday this week, data showed, versus 50 in the week-ago period, as markets watched talks between Iran and Oman for signs of progress in reopening the key waterway. (RTRS)

Diesel and petrol prices are trading close to record premiums over crude oil, fuelling concerns that consumers and industrial users may see little immediate relief from a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. (FT)

MACRO:

Fed's Musalem (non voter) added his voice to the chorus of central bankers who believed the central bank should have raised its interest rate target last week. Said he also favored an increase now because “earlier gradual incremental interest rate increases are preferable, less disruptive, less costly than potentially later, more abrupt interest rate changes.” (RTRS)

Canadian officials had a "constructive and detailed meeting" with USTR Greer in Washington on Thursday, said Dominic LeBlanc, the Canadian government minister in charge of trade relations with the United States. (RTRS)

The White House has invited top executives from the US critical minerals industry to a meeting Friday with President Donald Trump meant to demonstrate the administration’s commitment to wean the nation off supply chains dominated by China. (BBG)

US support for Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen is unlikely to damage the dollar’s status as the most dominant reserve currency in the world, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (BBG)

A strengthening El Niño is threatening to disrupt production of some of the world’s most heavily traded agricultural commodities, driving sharp swings in prices and raising the risk of food shortages and widespread inflation. (FT)

China’s export growth maintained robust in July, though at a slower pace from June, on persistently strong global demand for artificial-intelligence products. China’s trade surplus narrowed to $112.5 billion from $125.6 billion in June, exceeding economists’ forecast of $106.2 billion. (WSJ)

China’s crude oil imports rebounded last month from a near-decade low, after flows through the Strait of Hormuz picked up and refiners boosted purchases from nations outside the Middle East including Russia. (BBG)

China’s central bank is stockpiling more gold in Hong Kong, according to Bloomberg sources, in a move that’s likely to support the city’s push to become a major bullion-trading hub. (BBG)

China is accelerating its push to internationalize the yuan as domestic banks add new foreign currencies available for direct settlement to bypass the dollar in cross-border trade. (BBG)

Chinese tech firms, from Bytedance Ltd. to artificial intelligence startups, are driving demand for Hong Kong’s data centers, helping push lease prices up by nearly double this year. (BBG)

Quarterly data released show Japanese authorities conducted a record single-day yen-buying intervention in foreign exchange markets in April, selling $40 billion of the country's currency reserves, as they resumed massive yen-buying operations to stem the yen's slide. (RTRS)

BoJ's Masu will join other board members in delivering speeches before the central bank's next policy meeting September 17 to 18, which is widely expected to result in a rate hike. Masu will deliver a speech/conference on September 10th. Before that, Deputy Governor Himino will deliver a speech on August 27th while hawkish board member Takata will deliver one on September 2nd. (RTRS)

Japanese household spending fell unexpectedly in June, government data showed on Friday, as weather-related factors weighed on outlays, while analysts expect private consumption to be subdued amid sentiment hit by the Middle East conflict. (RTRS)

Japanese companies have already sold more corporate bonds with investor protection this year than in all of 2025, as lower-rated borrowers increasingly turn to the bond market instead of relying solely on bank loans for their funding needs. (BBG)

British house prices were flat in July, leaving them just 0.1% higher than a year earlier, mortgage lender Lloyds said on Friday. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a 0.1% monthly increase and an annual rise of 0.4%. (RTRS)

The US blindsided the ECB last week with its historic currency intervention to help Japan, only informing its counterparts in Frankfurt after it sold euros to buy the yen, according to FT sources. (FT)

French unemployment continued to rise, reaching the highest level in almost six years. 8.3% in the second quarter, up from 8.1% in the previous period (exp. 8.2%). (BBG)

South African authorities are focused on hitting budget targets rather than pleasing credit-rating firms, according to the government’s top finance official — and the reward is a bond market that’s already pricing the country’s debt as investment grade. (BBG)

The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened in the foreign exchange market on Friday, three traders told Reuters, as a jump in oil prices over risks of escalation in the Middle East pressured the currency. (RTRS)

India’s lower house of Parliament on Thursday approved tax cuts for foreign investors buying sovereign debt, cementing measures aimed at attracting foreign capital into Asia’s third-largest economy. (BBG)

The Philippine economy grew at its weakest annual pace since 2021 in the second quarter due to a slump in construction and softer domestic demand, but the government said there were some signs that activity may improve in the second half of the year. (RTRS)

GEOPOLITICAL:

New U.S. intelligence reports say Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to launch a limited assault on a NATO ally in coming years. The U.S. changed its past assessment that Putin likely wouldn’t provoke NATO during the Ukraine war. (WSJ)

Many of Russia's elite fear the Federal Security Service is out of control as President Vladimir Putin tasks the agency with maintaining his grip on power amid growing unease over the war in Ukraine. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

A New Mexico judge ordered Meta Platforms to pay more than $900 million and limit the time young people in the state can spend on its apps, significantly increasing the cost of the landmark child safety verdict against the Facebook and Instagram parent. (WSJ)

The Federal Aviation Administration has ordered the inspections of Boeing 737 Max jets for cracks of a component that could affect the structural integrity of the planes. The FAA estimates that the mandatory inspections will affect 471 jets in the U.S. (WSJ)

AMD is buying Canadian startup Taalas, a move that will let it offer another type of artificial intelligence chip to the burgeoning data center industry. (BBG)

Lyft beat analysts' revenue estimates for the second quarter on Thursday as a surge in riders and trips lifted bookings to a record, though heavier spending on promotions left net income short of expectations. (RTRS)

Airbnb raised its forecast for the year, citing an expansion in global demand as it uses artificial intelligence to improve its platform. (WSJ)

Atlassian Corp. shares surged in after-hours trading after quarterly revenue climbed, easing concerns that the software services company would be overtaken by artificial intelligence applications. (BBG)

Cloudflare gave a forecast for profit this year that topped Wall Street’s estimates, suggesting that demand for networking services continued to accelerate amid rapid adoption of artificial intelligence. (BBG)

DraftKings’ second-quarter revenue fell, as sports bettors won their wagers and the company offered promotions to attract new customers. (WSJ)

Monster Beverage Corp. said sales rose 20% during the second quarter as demand for energy drinks continues to boom, particularly in international markets. (BBG)

AIG reported second-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street expectations, roughly two months after Eric Andersen took over as chief executive officer. (BBG)

SK Hynix Inc. is expanding its investments into local corporate bonds as it manages a growing cash pile, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

Naver posted resilient second-quarter earnings despite higher AI-related operating costs, supported by solid growth in its core search platform and e-commerce businesses. (WSJ)

ByteDance is training an AI model with as many as 10 trillion parameters that could be close to the size of Anthropic’s cutting-edge Mythos system, according to FT sources. With 10 trillion parameters, the model would be more than three times the size of Chinese startup Moonshot AI's Kimi K3, which has 2.8 trillion parameters. (FT)

Alibaba plans to ask major users of the next version of its Qwen open-source AI model for a share of revenue they make from the hotly anticipated offering, according to Reuters sources. The same reports also notes the Kimi K3 license requires Moonshot's partners to share revenue of up to 30%. (RTRS)

Macau’s casinos are facing their sharpest setback since reopening from Covid, with steeper-than-expected revenue declines in June and July rattling investors and raising fears of a prolonged slowdown in the world’s biggest gambling hub. (BBG)

Daiichi Life Group Inc. has been stepping into bankers’ shoes and contacting companies directly to see if they want to issue bonds, in an unusual investment tactic for an insurer. (BBG)

Japan’s Topix stock index is poised for its biggest overhaul, with more than 600 companies — over a third of its constituents — likely to be gradually removed under new eligibility rules, according to analysts’ estimates. (BBG)

Eutelsat said on Friday it expects revenue to increase slightly next year as growth of more than 30% in its low-Earth orbit satellite business offsets declines in its legacy video operations. (RTRS)

Shareholders of Thyssenkrupp will on Friday vote on the proposed spinoff of the group's materials trading division, its largest by sales, in the latest step by the German conglomerate to simplify its sprawling structure. (RTRS)

Allianz generated record profit in the second quarter on better results in its insurance and asset management businesses. (BBG)

Brazilian oil producer Petrobras outperformed expectations after supply disruptions stemming from the US-Iran conflict lifted second-quarter prices for crude, gasoline and diesel. (BBG)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

Chinese Balance of Trade (Jul) 112.5B vs. Exp. 108.0B (Prev. 125.62B)
Chinese Balance of Trade Yuan (Jul) 767.1B vs. Exp. 740B (Prev. 859.05B)
Chinese Exports Y/Y (Jul) 23.9% vs. Exp. 22.7% (Prev. 27%)
Chinese Exports Y/Y (CNY) (Jul) 17.8% (Prev. 20.8%)
Chinese Imports Y/Y (Jul) 27.5% vs. Exp. 28.6% (Prev. 36%)
Chinese Imports Y/Y (CNY) (Jul) 21.2% (Prev. 29.4%)
French Unemployment Rate (Q2) 8.3% vs. Exp. 8.2% (Prev. 8.1%)
German Balance of Trade (Jun) 15.4B vs. Exp. 17.4B (Prev. 19.1B)
German Exports M/M (Jun) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%)
German Imports M/M (Jun) 4.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -2.5%)
German Industrial Production M/M (Jun) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%)
Japanese Coincident Index Prelim. (Jun) 118.2
Japanese Foreign Exchange Reserves (Jul) 1287.1B (Prev. 1287.5B)
Japanese Household Spending M/M (Jun) -6.4% vs. Exp. -3.1% (Prev. 3.7%)
Japanese Household Spending Y/Y (Jun) -3.3% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -0.3%)
Japanese Leading Economic Index Prelim. (Jun) 116.4 vs. Exp. 116.5
Norwegian Manufacturing Production M/M (Jun) -1.0% (Prev. 0.7%)
Philippine GDP Growth Rate Q/Q (Q2) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.9%)
Philippine GDP Growth Rate Y/Y (Q2) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%)
UK Lloyds House Price Index M/M (Jul) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
UK Lloyds House Price Index Y/Y (Jul) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%)

ICYMI O/N - Aug 6th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Thu, 06 Aug 2026 06:48:50 GMT

IRAN:

Trump said in a Truth Social Post that the US has ‘Massive Amounts’ of munitions. “Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the U.S. as needed”. (Truth)

An understanding between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz should effectively be viewed as an agreement between Tehran and Washington, Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, wrote critically on Thursday. He questioned why Iran would allow any ships to pass through the Strait, "opening an escape route for the enemy". (Iran International)

China's state-owned Sinopec, the world's biggest refiner, has ramped up purchases of Far East Russian oil to compensate for Middle East supplies diminished by the Iran war, according to Reuters sources and ship tracking data. (RTRS)

MACRO:

WSJ sources report President Trump has spoken repeatedly with Kevin Warsh since Warsh became Fed chairman, departing from recent precedent. Trump has sought counsel from Warsh on how the war in Iran and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence are affecting the economy. Warsh has often expressed a positive view of the economy to Trump, whilst it wasn't clear whether the two had discussed monetary policy. (WSJ)

Fed's Cook (voter) said that she’s open to the idea that the central bank may need to raise its short-term interest rate target to deal with “too high” levels of inflation in the U.S. economy. If inflation doesn’t start to cool off “I am prepared to act by raising rates, if necessary,” Cook said. (RTRS)

Fed's Daly said she was “completely supportive” of the decision last week to hold interest rates steady as the central bank gathers more data about how it should respond to inflation that is well above its 2% target. “We have a lot of information we need to collect” before the September meeting, Daly said, whilst also noting there are “good reasons” to believe that the supply-driven shocks that have hit the U.S. economy will not have a lasting impact on inflation. (RTRS)

Leopold Aschenbrenner made a $400 million investment in an unidentified privately held company on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg sources. The funding follows a $100 million investment that Situational Awareness had given the same company last month. (BBG)

JPMorgan CEO Dimon said that market leverage — including prime brokerage, hedge funds, exchange traded funds and Treasury market arbitrage — is running high. (BBG)

The technology trade may be poised to become even more dependent on retail investors and more volatile after a rough July, according to an assessment of preliminary data on the TMT equity sector hedge funds from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (BBG)

A sale of 30-year Japanese bonds drew firm demand on Thursday, delivering some calm to a market that’s been buffeted by currency turmoil and worry over the government’s debt load. (BBG)

The Japanese yen will strengthen about 6% against the dollar by year-end following coordinated currency intervention, according to revised expectations from Bank of America Corp. (BBG)

Tapping the Bank of Japan's holdings of exchange-traded funds may be an option to fund a planned sales tax cut, a ruling party executive said in a recent online programme, a sign its vast asset holdings could come under the political spotlight. (RTRS)

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi flagged the importance of restoring the 8% sales tax rate on food after two years to maintain trust among market participants. (BBG)

DeepSeek plans to implement a significant price increase across its AI services, an unusual shift from the disruptive Chinese player that has put pressure on US and domestic rivals. (BBG)

China’s main steel-industry group called for greater use of yuan-denominated index pricing in the iron ore market, saying such a shift would better reflect supply and demand in the top user of the commodity. (BBG)

Australia's balance on goods trade unexpectedly swung to a surplus in June as exports of gold and iron ore rebounded sharply, data showed on Thursday, while imports flattened after a strong run. (RTRS)

South Korea’s current-account surplus widened to a record for a second straight month as booming semiconductor exports pushed the goods balance to another all-time high — even as foreign investors dumped a record amount of domestic equities. (BBG)

The South Korean won rose to the strongest level in almost 10 months as exporters converted their dollar earnings into the local currency. (BBG)

South Korea risks losing its edge in semiconductors unless it helps chipmakers accelerate investment, as China pours unprecedented resources into the industry and intensifies the global technology race, Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said. (BBG)

South Korea's Finance Ministry said on Thursday that the possibility has increased greatly of economic growth rising to the 3% level for the first time in five years. (RTRS)

About one-third of Singapore's exports to the U.S., worth S$9.5 billion ($7.4 billion), will be affected by a new U.S. tariff of 12.5% imposed on July 24, Trade Minister Gan Kim Yong said. (RTRS)

German factory orders rose by more than analysts forecast, another sign that a long-awaited recovery in Europe’s biggest economy may finally be taking hold. (BBG)

Brazil’s central bank cut interest rates for the fourth consecutive time (as expected) as inflation cools and still-elevated borrowing costs weigh on the economy. (WSJ)

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will move quickly to appoint a new central bank governor and interim head Destry Damayanti is the frontrunner for the role, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. (RTRS)

EQUITIES:

OpenAI is asking a federal judge to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Apple Inc. accusing the artificial intelligence company of stealing trade secrets, saying that the iPhone maker’s allegations are meritless. (BBG)

Meta said on Wednesday one of its AI models hacked another company during cybersecurity testing, fanning concerns about how developers can contain increasingly capable AI systems after similar incidents at rivals Anthropic and OpenAI. (RTRS)

Jeff Bezos unloaded almost $350 million in Amazon.com Inc. stock as it hit a record on Monday, his first sale of the company’s shares this year. (BBG)

Artificial intelligence's hunger for electricity is causing technical problems at data centers, including malfunctioning or premature wear on equipment such as batteries, generators, and cooling units. (BBG)

EBay lifted its full-year outlook after closing its acquisition of Depop and reporting revenue growth in the second quarter. (WSJ)

AppLovin’s profit and revenue growth continued in the latest quarter but the advertising company said the results weren’t quite up to par with its standards. (WSJ)

Duolingo Inc. shares fell as much as 12% on Wednesday after the company’s conservative revenue outlook for the current quarter overshadowed user growth. (BBG)

Motorola Solutions lifted its outlook after reporting a higher profit and rising revenue in the second quarter. (WSJ)

Occidental Petroleum reported its highest quarterly profit since 2022, surpassing Wall Street expectations on Wednesday, helped by a jump in oil prices and a rise in production. (RTRS)

Honeywell Aerospace lowered 2026 sales growth forecast and issued a weaker-than-expected earnings outlook on Wednesday, as persistent supply-chain hurdles crimped its ability to meet surging aftermarket demand. (RTRS)

Expedia Group Inc. raised its annual sales forecast, signaling that consumers aren’t being deterred by higher hotel prices and airfare. (BBG)

DoorDash reported a lower profit in the second quarter, as higher costs offset an increase in revenue. (WSJ)

Two private credit funds managed by Blue Owl Capital Inc. bought back a combined $90 million of shares, marking a consecutive quarter of repurchases as the asset manager sought to steady the vehicles’ value amid turbulence in the sector. (BBG)

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is urging corporate leaders to join a U.S.-focused industry group to address risks posed by AI, as corporate America rapidly adopts the developing technology, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

The FDA has approved Moderna's flu vaccine for people aged 50 and older, the company said on Wednesday, marking the first approval of a messenger RNA-based vaccine for seasonal flu. (RTRS)

Several top US law firms have explored selling stakes in their businesses to private equity groups without triggering rules that bar ownership by non-lawyers. (FT)

SoftBank Group reported a smaller-than-expected decline in quarterly net income, helped by a rally in its chip-stock holdings while it awaits further gains from its bets on OpenAI. (BBG)

SK Hynix Inc. suffered its second short-lived share plunge in about a week, with shares falling 30% on its alternative exchange Nextrade, raising fresh questions about trading volatility on South Korea’s alternative stock exchange. (BBG)

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix face growing calls from investors wanting a greater share of excess cash via dividends or buybacks, after the pair provided scant detail on capital returns when reporting AI-driven record profit. (RTRS)

Hong Kong-listed shares of major insurers, led by Prudential and AIA Group, fell sharply on Thursday after Caixin reported China's mainland tax authorities are levying taxes on insurance policy income earned offshore. (RTRS)

Siemens reported its highest-ever quarterly industrial profit and new orders on Thursday, beating analyst forecasts and prompting the German industrial group to raise full-year profit guidance. (RTRS)

Rheinmetall revised down its 2026 sales outlook range on Thursday in the aftermath of the German government's decision to jettison a delayed frigate programme whose contract the firm had been tipped to win. (RTRS)

Deutsche Telekom raised its full-year share buyback program by up to 3 billion euros ($3.47 billion) and lifted guidance for a key metric after posting higher revenue in the second quarter. (WSJ)

Merck KGaA lifted its earnings forecast range for 2026 on Thursday and posted better-than-expected quarterly results on further gains in demand for its drug manufacturing supplies and semiconductor materials. (RTRS)

Commerzbank, nearing a possible takeover by Italy's UniCredit, said on Thursday that net profit rose 94% in the second quarter, better than analysts had expected. (RTRS)

WPP Plc reported first-half profits that beat analysts’ estimates, driven by the advertising agency’s cost-cutting efforts in a sluggish market. (BBG)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

Australian Balance of Trade (Jun) 1.93B vs. Exp. -1.1B (Prev. -3.02B)
Australian Building Permits M/M Final (Jun) 7.2% vs. Exp. 7.2% (Prev. -1.1%)
Australian Building Permits Y/Y Final (Jun) 8.9% vs. Exp. 8.9% (Prev. 5.3%)
Australian Exports M/M (Jun) 9.6% (Prev. -6.9%)
Australian Imports M/M (Jun) -0.2% (Prev. 2.6%)
Australian Private House Approvals M/M Final (Jun) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 2.8%)
German Factory Orders M/M (Jun) 3.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.9%)
Japanese Foreign Bond Investment (Aug/01) 477.9B
Japanese Stock Investment by Foreigners (Aug/01) -392.5B
South Korean Current Account (Jun) 49.73B (Prev. 38.61B)
Swedish CPIF M/M Prelim. (Jul) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.3%); Ex-Energy 0.4%
Swedish CPIF Y/Y Prelim. (Jul) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.3%); Ex-Energy 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%)

ICYMI O/N - August 5th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:39:01 GMT

IRAN:

The U.S., Iran and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. aiming for a Wednesday announcement, according to Axios sources. The emerging deal would meet some of Iran's demands for greater control over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. (Axios)

The deal under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the Hormuz strait, which could be extended. Deal sees inbound traffic through Iran waters and outbound via Omani waters with no tolls/fees "during the 60-day period". Parties would work on clearning naval mines from the middle lane "within 30 days" which could be used for for both inbound and outbound traffic under a permanent arrangement negotiated between Oman/Iran. (Axios)

US President Trump said his administration had "very good discussions" with Iran during all-day negotiations on Tuesday. "They had an all-day negotiation," Trump told Fox News' "@ Night" show. The Strait of Hormuz "is going to be open very soon," Trump added. "If they back out again, they are going to get hit really hard." (RTRS)

Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group will target Saudi vessels diverting toward north of Red Sea. Said the Houthis will escalate attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea to prevent them from transiting the area. (BBG)

MACRO:

The Trump administration’s new guidelines for powerful AI tools exempt open models made by U.S. companies (such as those from Nvidia), a gap that marks the White House’s latest bid to ensure AI tools are safe without slowing down innovation. (WSJ)

The White House has told top US AI companies that open-weight models being developed by their Chinese rivals won’t be subject to government testing under the Trump administration’s new AI safety framework, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

A U.K. government-backed research institute said OpenAI and Anthropic models took ‘autonomous, unsanctioned action on the live internet’. Anthropic and OpenAI said the incidents point to a need for stronger standards around the evaluation systems used to test AI models. (WSJ)

Fed's Schmid (non-voter) said that the Federal Reserve’s inflation problem isn’t only about energy, and bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% objective will require tighter policy. (WSJ)

The Trump administration has paid out about $100bn in tariff refunds since the US Supreme Court struck down its use of emergency powers to levy duties on its trading partners earlier this year. (FT)

Whale Rock Capital Management’s flagship hedge fund is one of the biggest losers in last month’s AI selloff, with a 21.7% drop in July erasing about half of its gains for the year. (BBG)

Bond traders have been spending millions of dollars to guard against sharp declines in long-dated Treasuries that risk igniting a bigger bout of volatility in the $31 trillion market. (BBG)

NBC News projected that progressive Abdul El-Sayed has won the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Michigan, defeating U.S. Representative Haley Stevens, and will face Republican Mike Rogers in the November midterm elections. (NBC)

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he was sure Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will "do what is best" for the country's economy, public broadcaster NHK reported on Wednesday. "I do believe that part of the inflation uptick in Japan was a result of the weak yen and also the energy prices," Bessent told NHK in an interview. (RTRS)

Reuters sources report "Given [the BoJ's] hawkish signals, it's clear the [bank] will hike either in September or October". A source notes, "If the Bessent-Ueda meeting were to take place, it would be very hard for the BOJ to avoid raising rates in September". (RTRS)

Some Bank of Japan board members said consumer inflation will likely get a significant boost in the latter half of the current fiscal year as firms plan price hikes for a wide range of goods, minutes of the June meeting showed on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Japanese PM Takaichi asked the Bank of Japan to buy more government bonds when necessary to curb rises in long-term interest rates during a meeting with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda in May, Jiji news agency reported on Tuesday. (RTRS)

Japan's real wages grew 1.6% in June from a year before, a sixth consecutive month of increases, government data showed on Wednesday, supporting the case for more rate hikes by the central bank. (RTRS)

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Wednesday signed off on a sweeping consumption tax cut championed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, despite mounting concerns over the nation's already strained finances. (RTRS)

Japan's services sector expanded at a slower pace in July as demand weakened and firms grappled with intense cost pressures, leading to the hottest inflation in selling prices since April 2014, a private survey showed. (RTRS)

China's services sector in July expanded at its slowest pace since September 2024 as growth in activity and new business moderated, a private business survey showed on Wednesday. (RTRS)

China has launched a global hunt for hundreds of billions of dollars in unpaid taxes going back decades as Beijing seeks to fill a deepening fiscal hole by targeting the ultra rich. Authorities have stepped up scrutiny of overseas capital gains and investments, in some cases going back as far as 2000. (FT)

China sold long-dated yuan-denominated sovereign bonds in Hong Kong at record-low yields, underscoring strong demand from global investors for the offshore issuance. (BBG)

Australia’s federal government will press on with a nationwide push to ensure new data centers use renewable energy, pledging to pass laws despite opposition to the move from some regional administrations. (BBG)

New Zealand's jobless rate climbed to a decade-high in the June quarter as a sharp rise in the number of people looking for work outweighed gains in employment, a blow for the centre-right government months ahead of a general election. (RTRS)

Italy intends to make full use of budget leeway allowed by a European Union "escape clause" from the bloc's budget rules to fund measures aimed at softening energy costs, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Inflation in the Czech Republic accelerated in July but remained below the central bank’s target, bolstering expectations that interest rates will stay on hold this week. (BBG)

The Trump administration on Tuesday said it was revoking the visa of Brazil’s ambassador amid an escalating diplomatic fight over alleged U.S. interference ahead of the country’s presidential election in October. (WSJ)

India’s central bank held rates steady again on Wednesday as it continues to assess the economic fallout of the Middle East conflict. (WSJ)

India’s drive to tap the savings of its vast diaspora has drawn stronger than expected inflows, boosting the central bank’s efforts to stabilise the ailing rupee. (FT)

Indonesia's annual economic growth in the second quarter came in at its slowest in three as household and public spending eased, official data showed on Wednesday, though the figure was better than expected. (RTRS)

Thailand’s inflation unexpectedly eased for a third straight month, bolstering the central bank’s view that it can keep interest rates on hold to support the economy. (BBG)

Thailand won’t allow US firms to establish fully foreign-owned satellite telecoms as part of trade talks with the Trump administration, resisting such investments in the sector over sovereignty issues, said the country’s vice commerce minister. (BBG)

GEOPOLITICAL:

Former senior officials from the UK, France, Germany and Russia met in Vienna last month to explore potential conditions for peace talks to end Moscow’s war on Ukraine, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

At least 17 people were killed in Russian air attacks on Ukraine overnight amid fresh signs that Kyiv’s ability to defend against missile strikes is becoming exhausted. (BBG)

Taiwan's government said on Wednesday it had searched dozens of locations and interviewed more than 100 people in an investigation into 17 Chinese companies suspected of illegally trying to recruit chip and other high-tech talent. (RTRS)

North Korea said it will pursue unspecified “additional military options” in response to Japan’s expanding defense capabilities, accusing Tokyo of reviving the ambitions of a “war criminal state.” (BBG)

EQUITIES:

Advanced Micro Devices saw its shares fall more than 8% Tuesday, despite record quarterly sales, after SpaceX chief Elon Musk said that his company would no longer buy AMD’s chips. (WSJ)

SpaceX’s stock fell after it disclosed higher-than-expected spending on its artificial intelligence business, overshadowing an inaugural quarterly report that broadly surpassed Wall Street forecasts. Musk outlined ambitious targets for SpaceX, including launching data centers in space in 2027 and reaching $1 trillion in revenue. (BBG/WSJ)

The next test for SpaceX SPCX.O investors following its first earnings report as a public company comes on Thursday, when as many as 912 million shares held by employees and other pre-IPO stakeholders become eligible for sale. (RTRS)

Banks are planning to offload $15bn of debt tied to a Google-backed data centre in Texas that has been leased to Anthropic, as Wall Street lenders grow wary of holding AI infrastructure debt on their balance sheets. (FT)

Booking Holdings Inc. maintained its full-year outlook for gross bookings and revenue due to resilient travel demand even as the Middle East conflict weighs on flight prices and capacity. (BBG)

Wynn Resorts’s quarterly revenue rose as the casino operator saw resilient demand from the wealthy customers it caters to. (WSJ)

General Motors and China’s SAIC Motor will extend their joint venture for 20 years, cementing the U.S. automaker’s commitment to the Chinese market. (WSJ)

Paramount Skydance Corp. posted a surprise surge in second-quarter profits with cost-cutting from its merger last year continuing to pay off. (BBG)

Walt Disney Co. is selling its 50% stake in A+E Global Media for about $1.2 billion to Hearst, which will take on full ownership of prominent brands such as Lifetime and The History Channel. (WSJ)

Amgen Inc. raised its full-year profit and revenue forecast after the drugmaker beat Wall Street’s expectations in sales of its key medicines. (BBG)

Gilead Sciences Inc. reported sales growth that beat expectations, as its drugs for HIV prevention and treatment continued to perform well. (BBG)

Pinterest Inc. gave a revenue outlook for the current quarter that disappointed investors worried about the company’s momentum despite posting strong user and revenue growth for the prior period. (BBG)

Lucid plans to launch its more affordable EVs in the second half of 2027, delaying the planned rollout from late this year, its CEO said on Tuesday, as the company carries out a major business review and cuts costs. (RTRS)

South Korean police searched Starbucks Korea’s headquarters in Seoul on Wednesday as part of an investigation into a marketing campaign that has become one of the country’s biggest recent corporate public-relations crises. (BBG)

Monthly revenue for Foxconn hit a record in July, surpassing T$900 billion ($27.93 billion) for the first time on strong AI demand, the Taiwanese company said on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Shares of Chinese optical module makers such as Zhongji Innolight slumped on Wednesday after a Reuters report that the Trump administration was drafting a ban on U.S. imports of ⁠new ⁠models of Chinese data centre components. (RTRS)

Cathay Pacific Airways’ first-half profit rose sharply, supported by increased passenger and cargo traffic despite significantly higher fuel prices. (WSJ)

Evoken, the Chinese startup behind AI design agent Lovart, is considering an IPO in Hong Kong, according to Bloomberg sources, the latest such firm seeking to tap booming investor demand for artificial intelligence tools after the breakout success of Manus. (BBG)

Honda Motor raised its full-year forecasts on Wednesday and posted its first quarterly profit rise in six quarters as a weaker yen helped it offset lower vehicle sales and higher material costs linked to the Iran war. (RTRS)

Shares of SK Hynix Inc. advanced, lifted by an overnight rally in US chipmakers and speculation that the Korean firm may soon unveil buybacks and other details of a broader shareholder return plan. (BBG)

South Korean prosecutors searched seven petrochemical companies as part of an investigation into alleged price fixing involving products such as caustic soda and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), a media report said on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Infineon said it expects strong revenue growth in the current fiscal year as the race to build artificial-intelligence infrastructure keeps adding fuel to red-hot semiconductor demand. (WSJ)

Siemens Energy said its profits more than tripled in its third fiscal quarter, while orders and revenues reached record highs. Expects to come in at high end of prior guidance. (WSJ)

London-listed Glencore plans a secondary listing on the Australian stock market just a year after ditching a switch to New York. (WSJ)

Next Plc raised its outlook for the third time this fiscal year, after sales surged in the second quarter due to warm UK weather and pent-up demand in the Middle East and northern Europe. (BBG)

Heineken backed its earnings outlook for the year after sales volumes picked up pace over the second quarter, boosted by premium labels and lower-alcohol products and adding to signs of recovery in the global beer market. (WSJ)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

Australian Ai Group Construction Index (Jul) -40.6 (Prev. -38.1)
Australian Ai Group Industry Index (Jul) -29.9 (Prev. -30.0)
Australian Ai Group Manufacturing Index (Jul) -19.6 (Prev. -16.8)
Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Jul) 53.2 vs. Exp. 52.6 (Prev. 50.4)
Australian S&P Global Services PMI Final (Jul) 53.6 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 50.5)
Chinese RatingDog Composite PMI (Jul) 50.8 (Prev. 53.6)
Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (Jul) 50.4 vs. Exp. 53.7 (Prev. 54.1)
EU S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Jul) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.9 (Prev. 50.0)
EU S&P Global Services PMI Final (Jul) 51.7 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 49.4)
French Industrial Production M/M (Jun) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%)
French S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Jul) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 47.2)
French S&P Global Services PMI Final (Jul) 49.6 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 46.8)
German Industry Orders (Jun) +21% Y/Y (Domestic Orders +1%, Foreign Orders +29%)
German S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Jul) 51.3 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 49.5)
German S&P Global Services PMI Final (Jul) 49.8 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 48.6)
Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (Jul) 51.0 (Prev. 52.0)
Indian HSBC Composite PMI Final (Jul) 54.3 vs. Exp. 54.3
Indian HSBC Services PMI Final (Jul) 53.3 vs. Exp. 53.1 (Prev. 57.4)
Italian S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) 52.5 (Prev. 50.8)
Italian S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) 52.5 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 50.2)
Japanese Average Cash Earnings Y/Y (Jun) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.2%)
Japanese Overtime Pay Y/Y (Jun) 2.8% (Prev. 2.9%)
Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Final (Jul) 51.2 vs. Exp. 51.9 (Prev. 52.2)
New Zealand Employment Change Q/Q (Q2) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%)
New Zealand Labour Costs Index Q/Q (Q2) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.5%)
New Zealand Labour Costs Index Y/Y (Q2) 2.1% (Prev. 2.0%)
New Zealand Participation Rate (Q2) 70.7% (Prev. 70.4%)
New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q2) 5.6% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.3%)
Singapore S&P Global PMI (Jul) 59.2 (Prev. 57.4)
Spanish S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) 56.5 (Prev. 53.3)
Spanish S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) 58.3 vs. Exp. 55.3 (Prev. 54.2)
Swedish Services PMI (Jul) 54.2 (Prev. 56.6)
UK New Car Sales Y/Y (Jul) 11.7% (Prev. 11.4%)
UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Jul) 52.2 vs. Exp. 52.1 (Prev. 49.3)
UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (Jul) 52.1 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 48.8)

ICYMI O/N - July 29th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:17:46 GMT

IRAN:

Iran launched a surprise ballistic-missile attack on American forces in Jordan, a violent escalation that piles new pressure on President Trump to renew the war in earnest. The missiles were all successfully intercepted, the U.S. military said. But the assault raised the prospect that American forces would have to respond. The assault marked a shift for Iran, which until now had generally fired on U.S. forces in retaliation for American airstrikes on its own territory. (WSJ)

Iran has ruled out Oman’s proposal for regional joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian official said on Wednesday, hitting hopes of a swift diplomatic breakthrough in the war. The plan had no chance of success, the official told Reuters. Iran and Oman must manage the Strait between them, based on their respective areas of control, without the involvement of other powers. (RTRS)

Two senior U.S. officials said they believed Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is actively trying to undermine negotiations to renew the ceasefire and reopen the strait. (WSJ)

Shortly after the Iranian strikes on Jordan, the American military said U.S. and Saudi jet fighters had launched strikes in Iraq on Tuesday against Iran-backed groups that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps previously directed to attack American troops and Saudi energy infrastructure. (WSJ)

Thirty-seven commodity ships passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Tuesday, the highest number since July 19, preliminary shipping data showed, with only a few transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. (RTRS)

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is pushing on with liquefied natural gas exports from its Persian Gulf plant, even as renewed hostilities in the region force producers to curb visible traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. (BBG)

The MERA Oil consortium of U.S. and Saudi Arabian companies is advancing plans for a $5 billion integrated refinery and export corridor in the Gulf aimed at boosting regional energy infrastructure, its partners said on Wednesday, as the Iran war continues to disrupt energy flows. (RTRS)

MACRO:

South Korean stocks slumped as retail investors rushed to cut positions, with SK Hynix Inc.’s disappointing earnings worsening the already‑jittery sentiment around artificial intelligence. The benchmark Kospi Index slid as much as 13%, triggering a circuit breaker for a second straight day, before trimming declines in afternoon trading to about 6%. (BBG)

South Korea’s Finance Minister, the governor of the Bank of Korea, and the heads of financial regulators will meet on Wednesday afternoon, a lawmaker said at a parliamentary hearing, following a plunge in the country’s stock market. (RTRS)

Positions in futures tied to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate have surged to an all-time high as traders brace for the risk the central bank could start pushing rates higher Wednesday. (BBG)

Wall Street banks have demanded more collateral from hedge funds in recent weeks as a rout in AI stocks accelerates and triggers heavy losses across several popular strategies. (FT)

Meta CEO Zuckerberg told the FT the US government should not block Chinese models to gain an edge in the AI race. Zuckerberg said that banning cutting-edge Chinese AI would ⁠not be “an effective solution,” adding that U.S. companies should “systematically” identify bottlenecks and roadblocks in order to better compete with Chinese AI firms. (FT)

U.S. President Trump said on Tuesday that he does not care about updating the North American trade agreement as Canada disclosed plans to send senior trade officials to Washington for more talks this week amid new tariffs and heightened trade tensions. (RTRS)

The Trump administration plans to end a subsidy program that helped hold down premiums for Medicare drug plans, a move that could leave many seniors facing higher rates for their prescription coverage next year. (WSJ)

Global annual investment in nuclear power needs to triple to around $250bn if governments want to meet their stated energy goals, the industry’s main lobby group said, as it urged banks to channel more private capital into the sector. (FT)

Japan aims to keep minimum wages rising steadily, signaling income growth across a broad spectrum of the economy remains resilient as the Bank of Japan seeks evidence that pay gains are supporting domestic demand. (BBG)

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund hired active domestic bond funds for the first time in five years, a recognition that one of the world’s biggest retirement money managers needs to increase its expertise to deal with volatility in the nation’s debt market. (BBG)

Goldman Sachs Japan Co. says a sharp selloff in Japan’s artificial intelligence-related stocks has created a buying opportunity, arguing that strong earnings could revive investor appetite for semiconductor shares. (BBG)

Australian consumer prices rose by less than expected in the second quarter, easing pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver what would be its fourth rate increase this year at a policy meeting next month. (WSJ)

New Zealand’s centre-right coalition government on Wednesday granted its first petroleum exploration permit since reversing a ban on offshore exploration imposed by former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour government. (RTRS)

China’s central bank conducted an overnight reverse repo operation on Wednesday by setting the borrowing cost at 1.25%, unchanged from the previous such operation in late June, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

China’s market regulator will meet with solar industry representatives on Friday to provide guidance on pricing compliance and the implementation of industry cost-accounting standards, local media outlet Cailianshe reported on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Hong Kong’s imports of gold surged to the most since late-2014 in June, driven by preparations for the city’s recently-launched clearing system as well as solid demand from mainland China. (BBG)

Private home prices in Hong Kong rose for the 13th consecutive month in June but the rate slowed to 0.3%, data from the Rating and Valuation Department showed on Wednesday. (RTRS)

An attempt by a lender to offload a portion of a loan backing a Hong Kong data center project is highlighting a global trend of banks reshuffling lending to keep exposure to the booming sector within limits. (BBG)

The Bank of England is probing the rapid growth of exposure to Asian equities among investment banks operating in London, as officials seek to avoid a build-up of highly concentrated bets on a few AI-linked companies. (FT)

Britain’s economy has been more resilient than anticipated after the energy price shock caused by the Iran war, but inflation will stay above the Bank of England’s target until 2029, according to projections from a leading think tank (NIESR) published a day before the Bank of England sets interest rates. (RTRS)

The planned overhaul of Germany’s creaking pension system is set to provide a substantial boost to both the country and its financial services industry, according to Deutsche Bank AG Chief Financial Officer Raja Akram. (BBG)

Argentina’s central bank snapped a near seven-month streak of dollar purchases, just a day after the IMF encouraged officials to keep raising foreign currency reserves. (BBG)

GEOPOLITICAL:

Ukraine has shifted its long-range drone campaign against Russia’s energy industry from broad attacks on refineries to more targeted strikes on critical components that are hard to replace. (FT)

EQUITIES:

SK Hynix reported bumper quarterly results on Wednesday but fell short of lofty investor expectations. It said delays in shipments of some advanced products limited price gains for its mainstay DRAM chips. “Major customers are still requesting more memory supply,” SK Hynix President Song Hyun-jong said on an earnings call, adding that it was seeking more long-term supply agreements to better manage chip price volatility. (RTRS)

Bloom Energy jumped after the fuel-cell maker posted earnings that were more than double expectations and raised full-year guidance for the second consecutive quarter, a sign of rampant demand from data centers. “Demand is compounding,” Chief Executive Officer KR Sridhar said in a conference call with analysts. “New customers are arriving at a faster pace than ever.” (BBG)

Advantest raised its outlook above estimates, pointing to robust demand for testers needed to manufacture increasingly complex chips for AI data centers. (BBG)

NXP Semiconductors NV struggled to impress investors with a generally upbeat forecast for the current period, the latest sign of deepening concern about the chip sector. (BBG)

The rogue agent that escaped from OpenAI and went on a days-long hacking spree at the AI firm Hugging Face also compromised a customer at a second tech company — New York-based Modal Labs — according to a Modal executive and two other sources familiar with the matter speaking to Reuters. (RTRS)

Visa beat estimates for quarterly profit as steady consumer spending and the World Cup-fueled travel demand boosted payment volumes, signaling resilience amid uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. (RTRS)

Ford Motor raised its annual profit outlook for a second time this year, following rival GM’s move last week, citing “resilient” customers who are buying the company’s pricey pickup trucks. (RTRS)

Mondelez International beat Wall Street estimates for second-quarter revenue and profit on Tuesday, helped by steady demand for biscuits and chocolates in key markets, as well as higher pricing. (RTRS)

Nomura Holdings Inc.’s quarterly profit rose more than expected to reach the second highest on record, as Japan’s largest brokerage joins Wall Street banks in benefiting from a boom in stock trading. (BBG)

Japanese construction-related shares rose on expectations of rebuilding demand following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on the southwestern island of Kyushu. (BBG)

Deutsche Bank said it would buy back another half a billion euros in shares, equivalent to $569.3 million, after booking a sharp rise in profit. (WSJ)

BASF posted a jump in net profit for the first six months of the year, boosted by a gain from the disposal of a unit, increased prices and volumes. (WSJ)

Porsche AG backed its full-year guidance as the company’s strategic reset begins to yield positive results. (WSJ)

Hermes reported a slight acceleration in growth in the second quarter on Wednesday, as the impact from the Middle East conflict eased and tourism recovered in France. (RTRS)

Danone expressed confidence about the second half of 2026 after its second-quarter sales beat forecasts, due to a recovery at its specialised nutrition unit that had been hit by a recall of European baby formula products and supply disruptions related to the Iran war. (RTRS)

Remy Cointreau backed its outlook for a return to sustained growth after cognac sales picked up, particularly in parts of Asia. (WSJ)

Eni on Wednesday lifted its share buyback programme by €600 million to €3.4 billion ($3.9 billion) after reporting better than expected second-quarter results. (RTRS)

UBS Group said it plans to buy back $3 billion in its own stock over the coming year, after its investment-banking and wealth-management units boosted second-quarter earnings. (WSJ)

Reckitt beat second-quarter sales growth estimates on Wednesday, as China, India and other emerging markets drove further growth, and launched a new share buyback of up to £500 million ($665 million). (RTRS)

Aston Martin’s second-quarter loss was worse than market expectations on Wednesday, underscoring the scale of the challenges the luxury carmaker faces as it banks on sales of its Valhalla hybrid supercar and cost cuts to drive a turnaround. (RTRS)

Standard Chartered reported second-quarter net profit that topped expectations, bolstered by a strong performance in wealth banking that offset credit charges tied to the Iran conflict, and announced a new share buyback of $1.0 billion. (WSJ)

Glencore said on Wednesday first-half copper production rose 15% on higher grades at key operations, while its marketing unit is expected to generate about $3.3 billion in adjusted core earnings, putting it on track to far exceed the top end of its annual guidance. (RTRS)

Rio Tinto has no plans to invest in U.S. aluminum smelting capacity despite the Trump administration’s recent offer to halve tariffs on some metal imports for companies that do so, according to Chief Executive Simon Trott. (WSJ)

Woodside Energy reported a 28% rise in second-quarter revenue on Wednesday and narrowed its annual production forecast, citing strong operational performance and high reliability across its assets. (RTRS)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

Australian Inflation Rate Q/Q (Q2) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 1.4%)
Australian Inflation Rate Y/Y (Q2) 3.9% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.1%)
Australian Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q (Q2) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.8%)
Australian Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y (Q2) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.5%)
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y (Jun) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.6%)
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI M/M (Jun) 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI Y/Y (Jun) 3.7% (Prev. 3.6%)
German Import Prices M/M (Jun) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. 0.7%)
German Import Prices Y/Y (Jun) 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 6.8%)
Italian Industrial Sales M/M (May) 0.6% (Prev. 0.3%)
Italian Industrial Sales Y/Y (May) 5.3% (Prev. 3.2%)
Norwegian Retail Sales M/M (Jun) 1.8% (Prev. -2.1%)
Swedish GDP M/M (Jun) -0.2% (Prev. 0.9%)
Swedish GDP Growth Q/Q Flash (Q2) 1.4% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -0.2%)
Swedish GDP Growth Y/Y Flash (Q2) 2.8% (Prev. 2.0%)

ICYMI O/N - July 28th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:13:58 GMT

IRAN:

Oman has presented a proposal to Iran for a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with voluntary fees, a Gulf source told Reuters. Under the Omani proposal, which has regional backing, Iran would not exercise sole control of the vital waterway. (RTRS)

A U.S. official and mediators said Iran and Oman were still far apart on some issues, including whether to charge fees for transit. But both sides said there was progress. (WSJ)

An Iranian diplomat said Tehran’s leaders want to reach a comprehensive peace deal with Trump some time before the November midterm elections, when they feel he will be under more pressure to make concessions. (WSJ)

US officials believe President Trump’s economic assault on Iran may ultimately do more damage to the regime in Tehran than the bombing campaign. “The Iranians want to stop being bombed and they want money,” a senior administration official said to Axios. “But that’s almost in reverse order. They really want the money first.” (Axios)

The number of vessels passing through Bab el-Mandeb rose to 28 on Monday, a four-day high, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained low, according to Kpler shipping data, amid optimism about a potential resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict. (RTRS)

Empty supertankers are heading to Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir to collect Saudi crude as observable traffic at the kingdom’s key Red Sea export hub dwindles following threats from Houthi militants. (BBG)

Eni and TotalEnergies plan to develop a gas field in Cyprus, proceeding with the offshore project as conflict in the Middle East pushes companies to explore other opportunities. The field has more than 3 trillion cubic feet of gas initially in place, with production expected to reach a plateau of 500 million standard cubic feet a day. (WSJ)

Saudi Aramco is considering a new pricing mechanism for crude loading from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir port for Asia to reflect higher shipping costs after re-routing exports through the Suez Mediterraneanpipeline, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

Tokyo is planning to expand its financial support to Japanese companies investing in pipeline projects overseas including the Middle East, as part of efforts to strengthen alternative oil and gas transportation routes in the Gulf region to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. (BBG)

Australia will consider building its first new oil refinery in more than 60 years, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday, as war in the Middle East squeezes supplies from overseas and underscores the urgency to improve energy security. (RTRS)

MACRO:

Asian semiconductor stocks tumbled on Tuesday, with South Korea leading the regional selloff, as investors questioned lofty valuations amid concerns over AI infrastructure financing and intensifying competition from China. Samsung -13.4% (worst one-day fall in almost two decades), SK Hynix -14.7%, Kioxia -18.3%, MediaTek -10%. (RTRS)

Fed’s Waller has questioned the usefulness of the task forces and Fed Chair Warsh’s quiet approach, according to WSJ sources. The article also notes that even in private at his first FOMC meeting, Warsh did not give a clear sense on how he would approach economic/policy trade offs ahead. (WSJ)

Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week — a surprise move strengthening Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the battle with inflation. (BBG)

Anthropic’s Amodei, in a blog post, sought to dispel claims that Anthropic supports a ban on open-weight models, which allow users to download and customize the technology. At the same time, he called for the US to adopt policy interventions to slow China’s AI development and said that all models — both open and closed — should go through mandatory safety testing before release. (BBG)

The biggest US power grid is warning that data centers may face involuntary outages under a plan to avert widespread blackouts and protect residential ratepayers from electricity price spikes. (BBG)

CME Group Inc. said the debut weekend of 24/7 trading for its one-ounce gold futures saw stronger-than-expected demand with deep liquidity despite subdued volatility. (BBG)

Japanese Finance Minister Katayama characterised the government’s relationship with the central bank as “normal and smooth,” brushing aside the view the administration sought to signal its reservation over rising interest rates. She stressed the need to step up communication with the bond market on fiscal policy to ensure market trust, as the government will soon start the process of compiling next year’s budget. (RTRS)

The Japanese government plans to cut the sales tax on food and drinks to 1% for two years starting next April, according to local media reports, delivering one of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s signature election pledges after months of political wrangling. (BBG)

The blockbuster IPO by CXMT Corp. on Monday, which spurred a rebound of memory chip stocks, will likely further underpin investor confidence in memory chip and semiconductor stocks, state-backed China Securities Journal and Securities Times reported. (ST/CSJ)

Hong Kong’s exports surged by the most in more than four decades to hit a record in June, fueled by strong demand from the global boom in artificial intelligence. (BBG)

South Korea’s consumer confidence climbed for a third straight month in July as an artificial intelligence-driven semiconductor boom and expectations for stronger wage growth offset concerns over elevated inflation and recent stock-market losses. (BBG)

RBA Governor Bullock said there are signs the economy is cooling as anticipated, though it’s still unclear if this year’s interest-rate hikes are enough to return inflation to target or whether additional tightening will be needed. Money markets trimmed bets after the speech and Q&A to price a one-in-four chance of a rate hike in two weeks’ time, while wagering better than 90% odds of an increase by December. (BBG)

Australia’s housing market is suffering its worst slowdown since the pandemic as rising borrowing costs and a sharp reversal in tax breaks shake confidence in a normally reliable source of economic growth. (RTRS)

Average prices at British retailers rose by an annual 0.9% this month, the smallest increase since December 2025, as the men’s soccer world cup triggered supermarket discounts on alcohol and snacks, the British Retail Consortium said on Tuesday. (RTRS)

Institutional investors are snapping up bundles of UK homes at large discounts, hoping to catch the bottom of the market while cautious individual buyers stay on the sidelines. (FT)

Europe’s wind turbine makers are examining whether combining to create industry champions would help them confront Chinese competition in the race to supply the global wind power industry. (FT)

German officials are working behind the scenes to identify Chinese economic vulnerabilities that they could exploit if the European Union finds itself in a trade war with the world’s second-largest economy. (BBG)

Traders are holding onto a bet that the 30-year swaps rate would rise more than the 10-year tenor, despite the trade being derailed by US attacks on Iran. (BBG)

France and Spain are studying ways to pump money into regions hit by massive wildfires over the past week even before the conflagrations are fully contained. (BBG)

French consumer confidence advanced more than expected in July, recovering some lost ground since the start of the Iran war. (BBG)

US customs officials have carried out spot inspections on China-linked factories in Vietnam, according to Bloomberg sources, adding to concerns the White House may soon find reasons to pile more tariffs on the Southeast Asian nation. (BBG)

Taiwan’s five‑year bond yield climbed to the highest level in almost two decades as a disappointing 20-year sale last week and growing expectations for a central bank interest-rate hike spurred a selloff. (BBG)

A major disagreement with the finance minister over economic growth strategies preceded Perry Warjiyo’s sudden resignation as Indonesia’s central bank chief, three sources told Reuters, underscoring months of reported tensions between the country’s top financial officials. (RTRS)

Ratings agency S&P said the surprise resignation of Bank Indonesia governor may contribute to greater uncertainty regarding the future direction of monetary policy, but the change in personnel does not impact its ratings on Indonesia. (RTRS)

The Philippine central bank sees only a small chance of aggressive monetary policy tightening after two recent hikes, its governor said on Tuesday, with inflationary risks still under review. (RTRS)

The Philippine central bank intervened in a small way to defend the peso last week, Governor Eli Remolona said, as the currency weakened to a record low. (BBG)

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. laid down his economic priorities in his annual address to Congress Monday, focusing on Filipino consumers battered by high prices due to the Iran War. (BBG)

GEOPOLITICAL:

President Trump is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Tuesday. Trump has recently expressed fresh optimism about Ukraine and Zelensky, a shift from his previous private insistence that Ukraine was losing. Trump has been impressed by Ukraine’s resilience and its drone industry, which has grown to producing millions of drones a year. (WSJ)

The de facto US embassy in Taiwan has published a photo of US and Taiwanese coast guard vessels sailing together, a rare move that appears aimed at reassuring Taipei as China steps up pressure in the region. (BBG)

Western critical minerals projects are being hamstrung by public funding gaps, impeding their ability to challenge China’s chokehold on materials essential to tech and defence manufacturing, according to a new report. (FT)

EQUITIES:

Nvidia has signed leases worth up to $50 billion for Hut 8’s Texas data center, according to FT sources. Hut 8 said last week its 1-gigawatt Beacon Point campus had a base-term contract value of $19.6 billion over 15 years, rising to as much as $50.2 ⁠billion if renewal options are exercised. Nvidia could sublease the property to its “neocloud” partners that buy its ‌GPUs ⁠and sell AI cloud computing. (FT)

Taiwanese prosecutors detained an Nvidia Corp. employee as part of a probe into the alleged smuggling of AI chips into China, thrusting the US company into a high-profile case concerning the black market for its products. (BBG)

BlackRock Inc.’s $12.55 billion bond sale tied to a Meta Platforms Inc. data center rallied in early trading on Monday in a sign that relatively high yields on the debt ultimately attracted investors. (BBG)

Amazon is overhauling its AI strategy, winding down many in-house models, reorganizing teams, and focusing engineers on a new strategy to compete at the frontier, according to Business Insider sources. (BI)

Satellite imagery shows damage to two Amazon.com Inc. data centers in Bahrain, supporting Iran’s claims last week that it struck the sites with missiles. (BBG)

Johnson & Johnson agreed to pay $5.5 billion to resolve remaining lawsuits that alleged the company’s talc products caused ovarian cancer, with the goal of putting an end to litigation that has been going on for more than a decade. (WSJ)

Applied Digital beat Wall Street estimates for fourth-quarter revenue on Monday, riding on robust demand for its data centers from an expanding roster of AI clients. (RTRS)

Cadence Design Systems raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts on Monday, banking on robust demand for its AI-powered chip and system design software. (RTRS)

Baker Hughes said on Monday it expects annual global spending by oil and gas producers to decline modestly this year, with growth in Latin America, offshore Africa, and onshore in North America offset by lower spending in Europe and the Middle East. (RTRS)

Operators of Boeing Co.’s popular 737 model should inspect seats on several hundred aircraft because they may not have been properly installed, which could risk injury during an emergency landing, the US Federal Aviation Administration said. (BBG)

Boston Scientific’s board has approved a new company-wide restructuring plan aimed at cutting costs and to better position the company for future growth, the medical device maker said in a regulatory filing on Monday. (RTRS)

Chinese optical parts maker Zhongji Innolight said on Tuesday it had priced its Hong Kong listing at HK$980 per H share, raising HK$53.41 billion ($6.81 billion) in Asia’s second-largest listing this year. (RTRS)

DexForce Technology Co. is considering an initial public offering in Hong Kong, according to Bloomberg sources, as the Chinese robot maker seeks to tap into investor enthusiasm for the sector. (BBG)

Mercedes-Benz cut its sales expectations for the year, becoming the latest automaker to warn of intensifying pressure in China despite noting that its cost-saving measures will support profitability this year. (WSJ)

Orange raised its full-year guidance after it reported higher revenue in the second-quarter mainly boosted by growth in Africa and Middle East, and Europe. (WSJ)

Safran raised its full-year guidance, citing stronger-than-expected demand for LEAP civil aircraft engines and spare parts. (WSJ)

Air Liquide backed its guidance after first-half revenue rose and its margin improved. (WSJ)

Stellantis has agreed to sell its Free2move car-sharing unit to German investment company Mutares, the automaker said on Tuesday, as CEO Antonio Filosa continues efforts to sharpen the group’s focus on its core vehicle production. (RTRS)

Barclays on Tuesday reported a first-half profit rise of 17%, beating analysts’ forecasts, as it followed Wall Street peers in reaping bumper equities trading revenues and deal fees this year. (RTRS)

Unilever raised its outlook for the year after underlying sales growth accelerated in the second quarter. (WSJ)

Man Group Plc hit a 16 year high after the company’s assets jumped to a record in the first half of the year as clients poured money into the firm’s long-only investment strategies and strong performance gains helped drive growth. (BBG)

Philips said on Tuesday that delayed orders in the U.S. and market pressure in China weighed on the healthcare tech group’s second-quarter results, even as it lifted its margin outlook for the full year. (RTRS)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

French Consumer Confidence (Jul) 86 (Prev. 84)
Japanese BoJ Core CPI (Jun) 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
South Korean Consumer Confidence (Jul) 106.8 (Prev. 106.6)
Spanish Retail Sales M/M (Jun) 0.3% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.6%)
Spanish Retail Sales Y/Y (Jun) 0.5% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.3%)
Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q2) 9.87% vs. Exp. 10.7% (Prev. 10.83%)
Swedish Balance of Trade (Jun) 2.60B (Prev. 2.9B)
UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (Jul) 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.2%)

ICYMI O/N & WEEKEND - July 27th, 2026

Zack Eiseman — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 08:30:27 GMT

IRAN:

US President Trump put off a major escalation of his military campaign against Iran amid efforts to revive diplomacy to open the Strait of Hormuz and a debate over the impact of declining munitions stocks, according to U.S. officials cited by the WSJ. (WSJ)

Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States does the same, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday. The senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran did not hold much hope that Trump's decision to pause strikes represented a major shift in the U.S. negotiating position. (RTRS)

Iranian and Omani deputy foreign ministers held discussions on the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran on Friday and Saturday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in a Telegram post. “The talks were constructive and some progress was made”. Technical and political consultations remain ongoing. No change of status in the Strait. (Telegram)

Asked on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday whether Trump had decided against escalation, US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said he “wouldn’t go that far at all.” Waltz said, “The president is keeping all options on the table... What the president is doing right now, as we’ve seen all along, is giving the talks some space.” Waltz also said talks were “ongoing” at every level, from technical discussions to “the highest level” of the Iranian and US leadership. (BBG)

The Iran-backed Houthis said they fired missiles and drones at facilities linked to oil giant Saudi Aramco in the port towns of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday. A Saudi-led coalition responded by striking Houthi military positions later Saturday. (BBG)

“Ukraine’s action was a dangerous adventure that will not go unanswered,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in press conference, in reference to Ukrainian attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea over the weekend. (BBG)

Ship traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on Sunday after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz stayed low over the weekend, shipping data from Kpler showed on Monday. (RTRS)

The US and Britain are discussing proposals for a high-level meeting in London early this week to examine a potential international maritime coalition to safeguard shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, according to UK officials. (FT)

Blackstone, KKR and Brookfield have agreed a $16bn deal to take a stake in Kuwait’s national oil pipelines network in the Gulf state’s largest-ever foreign investment as it raises capital to pay for the cost of Iranian attacks. (FT)

Iraq will sign an agreement with Syria on the construction of pipelines linking oil production sites to global export markets via the Mediterranean, according to a statement. (BBG)

MACRO:

'Big Companies Are Starting to Hire Again, Defying Predictions of AI Wipeout' WSJ article notes companies ranging from railroad giant CSX to Google parent Alphabet have told investors in recent days that they plan to hire to meet growth goals or to seize on emerging technologies. (WSJ)

America’s leading AI companies spent record sums on lobbying in Washington in recent months as they try to limit unfriendly regulation and shape the US rules around data centres and vetting models. (FT)

Positioning has fallen sharply in large-cap tech from extended levels to near neutral with the rotation out of the sector about three-quarters of the way through, according to Deutsche Bank strategists. Say that within systematic strategies vol control funds equity allocation declined but remains overweight while CTAs positioning in equities eased slightly but remain in the upper range. (BBG)

Maine Democrats officially picked progressive former state lawmaker Troy Jackson as their new US Senate nominee on Saturday, giving them another shot at the crucial race after previous pick Graham Platner dropped out. (BBG)

Japanese PM Takaichi said government efforts to boost the country's growth potential will underpin market trust in the yen, countering views that the rising cost of living from the weak currency was hurting her approval ratings. The approval rating of Takaichi's administration slumped in July to the lowest level since she took office last year, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Sunday, a sign that rising living costs were hitting her popularity. (RTRS)

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s declining approval ratings may encourage the government to take a looser approach to spending and taxes, which risks spooking investors in the nation’s currency and bonds, according to market strategists. (BBG)

China should restrict access to the most powerful features of artificial intelligence models, a state media commentary suggested, highlighting limits to Beijing’s support for open technology. (BBG)

Profits at China's industrial firms grew at a solid, though slower, pace as resilient exports helped cushion sluggish domestic demand, highlighting the economy's uneven recovery despite policymakers' efforts to spur consumption. (RTRS)

China’s crude imports this month are expected to rebound from the lowest level in more than a decade after flows through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated and refiners increased purchases of Russian oil. (BBG)

A strong rebound in the won driven in part by SK Hynix Inc.’s record US listing has given South Korean authorities fresh impetus to prod exporters to repatriate their overseas dollars. (BBG)

Australian gasoline prices jumped last week by the most since the height of the US-Iran war following the collapse of a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures ahead. (BBG)

New Zealand’s dollar is set to rise to the strongest in more than a year against the euro due to expectations the local central bank will outpace its European peer in raising interest rates, according to strategists. (BBG)

Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly tightened monetary policy for the second consecutive time, though by less than in April, as it moved to contain inflation risks despite recent softer-than-expected price readings. (WSJ)

Chip building and drones will be at the heart of Andy Burnham’s drive to “reindustrialise” Britain, the minister for AI has said. (FT)

Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the UK should make it harder for Britons to claim benefits as the government seeks to tackle a soaring welfare bill. (BBG)

Andy Burnham explicitly dismissed the idea of an early general election, saying "I'm going to rule it out... I don't think people want it." (BBC)

ECB's Kazimir said the ECB will have to raise interest rates at least one more time to ensure that inflation risks don’t spin out of control. (BBG)

ECB's Zigman said the fallout from renewed fighting in the Middle East will take some time to show up in data. (BBG)

France has raised questions over UK participation in a €5bn EU equity investment fund for tech start-ups, in a move that European diplomats say highlights the continuing tensions over the EU-UK “reset” negotiations. (FT)

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government may propose a pricey energy security and defense spending plan ahead of 2027 general elections, according to Corriere della Sera. (BBG)

Belgium was dealt a warning shot by Morningstar DBRS, which put a negative outlook on its status amid concerns on its budget deficit. (BBG)

Long-serving Bank Indonesia Gov. Perry Warjiyo stepped down in a surprise move, the latest leadership change under the Prabowo administration that is likely to stoke worries about central bank independence and economic policymaking in Southeast Asia’s largest nation. (WSJ)

A deadly storm in Chile threatens copper production and has added to concerns over the industry’s ability to supply the metal crucial to the AI boom. (FT)

GEOPOLITICAL:

Ukraine wants a prototype for a European anti-ballistic system codenamed Freyja to be ready within the first half of next year, a senior official said to Reuters, as Kyiv pushes its allies to help deliver a weapon capable of downing Russian missiles. (RTRS)

The president of Kazakhstan urged Vladimir Putin to “freeze” the war in Ukraine in the latest sign that the Russian president is under growing pressure as Ukrainian attacks reach targets deep inside Russia. (FT)

Russia is extending its curb on gasoline exports through year-end as the government battles fuel shortages but plans to lift a ban on diesel exports once the market recovers, said Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

Nvidia is in talks to provide a roughly $250 billion backstop for OpenAI as part of a massive data-center project, according to WSJ sources, one of the most ambitious financial transactions yet in America’s artificial-intelligence boom. The guarantees from Nvidia would help the ChatGPT maker lease a 10-gigawatt project that SoftBank’s energy subsidiary is developing in southern Ohio. In total, the project could cost more than $500 billion. (WSJ)

Nvidia and South Korea's SK Group on Friday unveiled a more than $500 billion AI initiative spanning large-scale AI data centers and next-generation memory, Nvidia said. (RTRS)

South Korea's Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will pursue memory chip supply partnership with U.S. big tech companies including Nvidia worth $950 billion overall, South Korea's presidential adviser said on Saturday. (RTRS)

Nvidia will invest roughly $1 billion in South Korean internet company Naver to help finance an artificial-intelligence data center, deepening the companies’ partnership in AI. The planned investment could pave the way for a broader multibillion-dollar push into AI infrastructure in South Korea. (WSJ)

Samsung Electronics said on Saturday it struck a pact with U.S. chip designer Broadcom to widen cooperation across memory chips, contract chip making and advanced packaging envisaged to exceed $200 billion until 2030. (RTRS)

Anthropic PBC has asked SK Hynix Inc., one of the world’s biggest manufacturers of memory chips, for supplies to make its own semiconductors, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae Won said. (BBG)

United Airlines, on the hunt for a megadeal, last year approached Delta Air Lines about a merger that would have combined the two most valuable U.S. carriers, according to WSJ sources. The talks didn’t progress and both companies later moved on from the proposal. (WSJ)

Sazerac has sent a letter to a group of Brown-Forman shareholders asking them to reconsider a $15 billion buyout offer that had been rebuffed. (WSJ)

SpaceX's Starship rocket lifted off from Texas on Friday and briefly put its first 20 upgraded Starlink internet satellites into suborbital space, the company's 13th test mission as it aims to begin routine service by the end of the year. (RTRS)

Recent research by The Health Foundation reveals no noticeable improvement in hospital discharge performance for NHS trusts using Palantir’s patient-tracking tool, intensifying political pressure for an independent audit. (FT)

Delta Electronics inked a US$2 billion deal with Infineon (Germany) to supply SiC (Silicon Carbide), a key material for Nvidia’s 800VDC power architecture for AI data centers, media report. If true, the LTA would signal a rumored delay in Nvidia 800VDC was wrong, and industry has already started to secure supplies of SiC. (UDN via @dnystedt)

TSMC’s first 2nm fab hit a production milestone of 20,000 wafers-per-month (wpm), the best among 5 fabs ramping 2nm capacity in Taiwan, media report, citing unnamed industry sources. (UDN via @dnystedt)

SoftBank Group’s $40 billion bridge loan for its investment in US tech giant OpenAI has attracted a new group of 21 lenders in a broader syndication phase, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

SoftBank is getting closer to acquiring SP.LINKS Inc. after securing preferred bidder status for Blackstone Inc.’s payments service provider, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)

ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is on track to become China’s most valuable listed company as its shares surged in its Shanghai trading debut, buoying Beijing’s campaign to become a global force in semiconductors that power AI. Shares of the memory-chip company jumped 535% to 55.00 yuan on Monday from their IPO price of 8.66 yuan. (WSJ)

CXMT can extend its blockbuster stock market debut to rally 1,239% from its initial public offering price as it wins market share over time, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. (BBG)

Zhongji Innolight Co. is telling prospective investors it is on track to price its HK$53.4 billion ($6.8 billion) Hong Kong listing below the maximum, according to Bloomberg sources, as the company moves closer to sealing the city’s biggest first-time share sale in seven years. (BBG)

DeepSeek has told prospective investors in its second fundraising round that it’s suspending the deal for now, according to Bloomberg sources, days after comments widely attributed to founder Liang Wenfeng about US-Chinese AI competition went viral. (BBG)

Moonshot AI is poised to make its Kimi K3 model available for public download, expanding its reach and influence in the global open software community at a time of growing US concern about Chinese encroachment into the top echelons of AI development. (BBG)

Shein fell to a net loss in the first quarter as US and EU trade tensions hit its business, the fast-fashion retailer reported in a filing ahead of its Hong Kong listing. (FT)

China’s months-long antitrust probe into Trip.com Group Ltd. ended with a multi-billion-yuan penalty on the nation’s largest online travel agency, but the action does little to ease the fierce price wars gripping the domestic hotel sector. (BBG)

The Audi group sees lower sales and profitability this year as worsening conditions in China and US tariffs hamper the carmaker’s turnaround efforts. (BBG)

AstraZeneca reported higher second-quarter revenue, driven by growth in oncology sales, and reiterated its 2030 revenue target after a clinical trial failure earlier this month. (WSJ)

Vodafone Group raised its fiscal 2027 guidance to include the Safaricom deal, saying its key earnings metric should come in at the upper end of the new outlook. (WSJ)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

Chinese Industrial Profits Y/Y (Jun) 15.1% (Prev. 21.1%)
Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) Y/Y (Jun) 18.7% (Prev. 18.8%)
EU Loans to Companies Y/Y (Jun) 4.0% (Prev. 4.0%)
EU Loans to Households Y/Y (Jun) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%)
EU M3 Money Supply Y/Y (Jun) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.2%)
German Ifo Business Climate (Jul) 86.6 vs. Exp. 86.1 (Prev. 85.6)
German Ifo Current Conditions (Jul) 86.5 (Prev. 87.0)
German Ifo Expectations (Jul) 86.7 (Prev. 84.1)
Japanese Coincident Index Final (May) 117.9 vs. Exp. 118.5 (Prev. 118.1)
Japanese Leading Economic Index Final (May) 116.5 vs. Exp. 116.8 (Prev. 116.1)
Japanese Services PPI Y/Y (Jun) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.3%)
Singapore Industrial Production M/M (Jun) -7.2% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. -0.7%)
Singapore Industrial Production Y/Y (Jun) 7.2% vs. Exp. 9.1% (Prev. 13.0%)
Swedish Household Lending Growth Y/Y (Jun) 3.2% (Prev. 3.1%)

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