Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows the CDU consistently between 18% and 21% in surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, Civey, and Forsa, placing it in a tight contest with the Linke and AfD while well below its 28.2% result in the 2023 repeat vote. The party's support has eroded amid the performance of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition and gains by opposition parties, with recent figures clustering in the 17-20% band. Traders assign the highest probability to this range as the election nears, reflecting stable late-campaign trends and the limited scope for sharp last-minute shifts in a fragmented field where turnout and undecided voters remain key variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert17–20 % 46%
<17% 28%
20-23 % 28%
23%+ 2.0%
$13,281 Vol.
$13,281 Vol.
<17%
28%
17–20 %
46%
20-23 %
28%
23%+
2%
17–20 % 46%
<17% 28%
20-23 % 28%
23%+ 2.0%
$13,281 Vol.
$13,281 Vol.
<17%
28%
17–20 %
46%
20-23 %
28%
23%+
2%
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows the CDU consistently between 18% and 21% in surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, Civey, and Forsa, placing it in a tight contest with the Linke and AfD while well below its 28.2% result in the 2023 repeat vote. The party's support has eroded amid the performance of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition and gains by opposition parties, with recent figures clustering in the 17-20% band. Traders assign the highest probability to this range as the election nears, reflecting stable late-campaign trends and the limited scope for sharp last-minute shifts in a fragmented field where turnout and undecided voters remain key variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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