Sam Liccardo’s commanding position in the CA-16 race stems from the district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+25 or greater partisan voter index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. As the incumbent who won the 2024 general election and then captured 75.6% in the June 2026 top-two primary, Liccardo benefits from substantial name recognition, extensive fundraising exceeding $3 million with over $2 million in cash on hand, and the absence of notable Republican opposition or recent events that could shift momentum. Peter Soule advanced as the top Republican but trails far behind in visibility and resources. The implied probability aligns with the district’s structural Democratic advantage and historical voting patterns. A late scandal, health development, or unprecedented national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-16 Wahlsieger
CA-16 Wahlsieger
$107,100 Vol.
$107,100 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
98%
Peter Soulé (R)
2%
$107,100 Vol.
$107,100 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
$52,942 Vol.
98%
Peter Soulé (R)
$54,158 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo’s commanding position in the CA-16 race stems from the district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+25 or greater partisan voter index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. As the incumbent who won the 2024 general election and then captured 75.6% in the June 2026 top-two primary, Liccardo benefits from substantial name recognition, extensive fundraising exceeding $3 million with over $2 million in cash on hand, and the absence of notable Republican opposition or recent events that could shift momentum. Peter Soule advanced as the top Republican but trails far behind in visibility and resources. The implied probability aligns with the district’s structural Democratic advantage and historical voting patterns. A late scandal, health development, or unprecedented national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$107,100Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo’s commanding position in the CA-16 race stems from the district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+25 or greater partisan voter index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. As the incumbent who won the 2024 general election and then captured 75.6% in the June 2026 top-two primary, Liccardo benefits from substantial name recognition, extensive fundraising exceeding $3 million with over $2 million in cash on hand, and the absence of notable Republican opposition or recent events that could shift momentum. Peter Soule advanced as the top Republican but trails far behind in visibility and resources. The implied probability aligns with the district’s structural Democratic advantage and historical voting patterns. A late scandal, health development, or unprecedented national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$107,100Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Sam Liccardo’s commanding position in the CA-16 race stems from the district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+25 or greater partisan voter index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. As the incumbent who won the 2024 general election and then captured 75.6% in the June 2026 top-two primary, Liccardo benefits from substantial name recognition, extensive fundraising exceeding $3 million with over $2 million in cash on hand, and the absence of notable Republican opposition or recent events that could shift momentum. Peter Soule advanced as the top Republican but trails far behind in visibility and resources. The implied probability aligns with the district’s structural Democratic advantage and historical voting patterns. A late scandal, health development, or unprecedented national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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