Skip to main content

Um in den USA zu traden, geh zu polymarket.us

icon for FL-14 Wahlsieger
Politik·4. Nov. Wahlen

FL-14 Wahlsieger

icon for FL-14 Wahlsieger
Politik·4. Nov. Wahlen

FL-14 Wahlsieger

Polymarket

$41,742 Vol.

Polymarket

$41,742 Vol.

Kathy Castor (D)

$21,658 Vol.

64%

Mike Beltran (R)

$20,084 Vol.

35%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor, the nine-term Democratic incumbent, holds a 63.5% implied probability in the FL-14 general election matchup against Republican nominee Mike Beltran due to her established name recognition and fundraising edge in a Hillsborough County-based district. Redistricting enacted in May 2026 shifted the seat toward Republican-leaning territory, with the new lines favoring the GOP on paper by roughly 11 points based on 2024 presidential results. Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 45.6% of the vote in a crowded field and has drawn national party support as a target race. However, a July poll showed Castor ahead 46%-38%, and post-primary ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report moved the contest to toss-up status amid broader midterm dynamics. Traders appear to weigh Castor’s incumbency and local delivery record more heavily than the structural map changes ahead of the November 3 vote.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$41,742
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor, the nine-term Democratic incumbent, holds a 63.5% implied probability in the FL-14 general election matchup against Republican nominee Mike Beltran due to her established name recognition and fundraising edge in a Hillsborough County-based district. Redistricting enacted in May 2026 shifted the seat toward Republican-leaning territory, with the new lines favoring the GOP on paper by roughly 11 points based on 2024 presidential results. Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 45.6% of the vote in a crowded field and has drawn national party support as a target race. However, a July poll showed Castor ahead 46%-38%, and post-primary ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report moved the contest to toss-up status amid broader midterm dynamics. Traders appear to weigh Castor’s incumbency and local delivery record more heavily than the structural map changes ahead of the November 3 vote.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$41,742
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei den Sitz des FL-13 im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Republikanische Partei den Sitz des FL-13 im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

74%
Ja
icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei den FL-15 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Republikanische Partei den FL-15 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

93%
Ja
icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei den TX-14 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Republikanische Partei den TX-14 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

95%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„FL-14 Wahlsieger" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Kathy Castor (D)" mit 64%, gefolgt von „Mike Beltran (R)" mit 35%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 64¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 64% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „FL-14 Wahlsieger" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $41.7K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 28, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „FL-14 Wahlsieger" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „FL-14 Wahlsieger" ist „Kathy Castor (D)" mit 64%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 64% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Mike Beltran (R)" mit 35%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „FL-14 Wahlsieger" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.