**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$63,515 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
45%+
72%
50 %+
47%
55 %+
36%
60 %+
25%
65 %+
9%
$63,515 Vol.
45%+
$27,818 Vol.
72%
50 %+
$7,075 Vol.
47%
55 %+
$14,134 Vol.
36%
60 %+
$12,455 Vol.
25%
65 %+
$2,034 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Markt eröffnet: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$63,515Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://agi.safe.ai/Abwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$63,515Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://agi.safe.ai/Abwickler
0x65070BE91...**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird das höchste Ergebnis, das bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 erzielt wird, 60 % oder mehr betragen?
74%
Ja
Wird die höchste Punktzahl, die ein OpenAI-Modell bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 erreicht, 50 % oder mehr betragen?
88%
Ja
Wird die höchste von einem Meta-Modell erreichte Punktzahl bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 55 % oder mehr betragen?
41%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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