Lula’s campaign has repeatedly signaled reluctance to join first-round presidential debates, citing concerns over format, unequal conditions, and limited value for substantive discussion. The president skipped the August 23 Band debate and provided no confirmation for the canceled September 14 consortium event organized by multiple outlets. Recent reporting indicates the PT campaign continues to rule out the September 27 Record debate while still weighing the October 1 Globo event, with Lula stating he will not participate merely to “hear nonsense” from rivals. Flávio Bolsonaro’s team has aligned its strategy around Lula’s presence, further reducing the likelihood of a joint appearance. Lula’s polling lead has lowered the incentive for unscripted confrontations before the October 4 first round, anchoring trader consensus toward non-participation absent a late reversal.