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icon for Nächstes Grok-Modell (4.7+) veröffentlicht am...?
Technik·AI

Nächstes Grok-Modell (4.7+) veröffentlicht am...?

icon for Nächstes Grok-Modell (4.7+) veröffentlicht am...?
Technik·AI

Nächstes Grok-Modell (4.7+) veröffentlicht am...?

23. September 61.1%

Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September 19.1%

28. September 7.0%

17. September 6.2%

Polymarket

$12,903 Vol.

23. September 61.1%

Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September 19.1%

28. September 7.0%

17. September 6.2%

Polymarket

$12,903 Vol.

16. September

$651 Vol.

<1%

17. September

$215 Vol.

25%

18. September

$437 Vol.

29%

19. September

$793 Vol.

21%

20. September

$763 Vol.

14%

21. September

$567 Vol.

26%

22. September

$524 Vol.

21%

23. September

$663 Vol.

53%

24. September

$513 Vol.

18%

25. September

$710 Vol.

1%

26. September

$541 Vol.

1%

27. September

$681 Vol.

1%

28. September

$461 Vol.

7%

29. September

$387 Vol.

2%

30. September

$707 Vol.

1%

Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September

$575 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s repeated timeline slips for Grok 4.7, a 2.1-trillion-parameter large language model trained with supplemental SpaceX data, form the main driver behind current Polymarket odds. After Grok 4.6 shipped August 12, Musk projected a September 12 release on September 2, then announced September 11 that extra reinforcement-learning tuning was needed to fix excessive response-length penalties that caused the model to abandon hard tasks prematurely. No official xAI announcement or model card has appeared as of September 17, leaving traders to assign the highest implied probability (53.4%) to September 23 while discounting earlier dates. Competitive pressure from Meta and OpenAI September launches and xAI’s shift toward discussing Grok 4.8 add further uncertainty to near-term resolution.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$12,903
Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Einspruchsfrist

Endgültig

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s repeated timeline slips for Grok 4.7, a 2.1-trillion-parameter large language model trained with supplemental SpaceX data, form the main driver behind current Polymarket odds. After Grok 4.6 shipped August 12, Musk projected a September 12 release on September 2, then announced September 11 that extra reinforcement-learning tuning was needed to fix excessive response-length penalties that caused the model to abandon hard tasks prematurely. No official xAI announcement or model card has appeared as of September 17, leaving traders to assign the highest implied probability (53.4%) to September 23 while discounting earlier dates. Competitive pressure from Meta and OpenAI September launches and xAI’s shift toward discussing Grok 4.8 add further uncertainty to near-term resolution.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$12,903
Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Einspruchsfrist

Endgültig

Verwandte

icon for Wird das nächste Grok-Modell (4.7+) bis zum 18. September 2026 veröffentlicht?

Wird das nächste Grok-Modell (4.7+) bis zum 18. September 2026 veröffentlicht?

36%
Ja
icon for Wird das nächste Grok-Modell (4.7+) bis zum 30. Juni 2027 mit einer Punktzahl von mindestens 1450 debütieren?

Wird das nächste Grok-Modell (4.7+) bis zum 30. Juni 2027 mit einer Punktzahl von mindestens 1450 debütieren?

50%
Ja
icon for Wird Grok 5 bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 veröffentlicht werden?

Wird Grok 5 bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 veröffentlicht werden?

50%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Nächstes Grok-Modell (4.7+) veröffentlicht am...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 23 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „23. September" mit 53%, gefolgt von „18. September" mit 29%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 53¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 53% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Nächstes Grok-Modell (4.7+) veröffentlicht am...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $12.9K generiert, seit der Markt am Sep 3, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Nächstes Grok-Modell (4.7+) veröffentlicht am...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 23 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Nächstes Grok-Modell (4.7+) veröffentlicht am...?" ist „23. September" mit 53%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 53% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „18. September" mit 29%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Nächstes Grok-Modell (4.7+) veröffentlicht am...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.