Russia’s Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko’s federal party list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10, with the appeal rejected a week later, after the Central Election Commission had briefly registered the anti-war liberal party in late July. This definitive exclusion from the proportional representation component means the party list cannot appear on the nationwide ballot or receive any share of the vote needed to meet the 5 percent threshold. Traders assign 99 percent probability to “No” because the ruling followed years of candidate disqualifications, foreign-agent designations, and administrative barriers that have kept Yabloko below 2 percent in every national election since 1999. The only plausible shifts would require an improbable last-minute reversal of the court decision or an unforeseen change in electoral rules before voting concludes on September 20.