Bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Mexico, including recent Mexican Senate approval of U.S. troops for joint training exercises and shared anti-drone operations targeting cartel smuggling, underpins trader expectations that no invasion will occur in 2026. Mexican officials have repeatedly affirmed sovereignty and ruled out foreign military operations on their territory, while U.S. policy has emphasized intelligence sharing, tariffs, and designated terrorist designations over direct intervention. Economic interdependence through trade frameworks and the political calendar, with focus on domestic midterms and other priorities, further reduce escalation risks. Even amid cartel-related tensions and past discussions of force options, developments point to coordination rather than confrontation. Unlikely triggers for shifts, such as major cross-border attacks or abrupt policy reversals, remain outside current evidence.