Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election shows a tight contest among Die Linke, the CDU, the AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, with each frequently polling between 16% and 23%. This clustering keeps fourth place highly uncertain, as small shifts in turnout or late voter movement among these parties can reorder the standings. Die Grünen currently sit near the middle of that pack in most surveys, supporting their position in the market, while the AfD and CDU trail slightly in implied probability for that specific slot. The SPD and smaller parties such as BSW and FDP remain further back, reducing their chance of finishing fourth. With only days remaining, final campaign events and turnout patterns among core voter groups will determine whether any party pulls ahead or falls behind in the narrow margin.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGrüne 47%
AfD 33%
CDU 13.7%
SPD 10%
$13,229 Vol.
$13,229 Vol.
20 sep 2026
Grüne
47%
AfD
33%
CDU
14%
SPD
10%
Linke
6%
BSW
2%
FDP
1%
FW
1%
Grüne 47%
AfD 33%
CDU 13.7%
SPD 10%
$13,229 Vol.
$13,229 Vol.
20 sep 2026
Grüne
$6,854 Vol.
47%
AfD
$4,464 Vol.
33%
CDU
$189 Vol.
14%
SPD
$351 Vol.
10%
Linke
$745 Vol.
6%
BSW
$219 Vol.
2%
FDP
$161 Vol.
1%
FW
$247 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election shows a tight contest among Die Linke, the CDU, the AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, with each frequently polling between 16% and 23%. This clustering keeps fourth place highly uncertain, as small shifts in turnout or late voter movement among these parties can reorder the standings. Die Grünen currently sit near the middle of that pack in most surveys, supporting their position in the market, while the AfD and CDU trail slightly in implied probability for that specific slot. The SPD and smaller parties such as BSW and FDP remain further back, reducing their chance of finishing fourth. With only days remaining, final campaign events and turnout patterns among core voter groups will determine whether any party pulls ahead or falls behind in the narrow margin.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volumen
$13,229Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election shows a tight contest among Die Linke, the CDU, the AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, with each frequently polling between 16% and 23%. This clustering keeps fourth place highly uncertain, as small shifts in turnout or late voter movement among these parties can reorder the standings. Die Grünen currently sit near the middle of that pack in most surveys, supporting their position in the market, while the AfD and CDU trail slightly in implied probability for that specific slot. The SPD and smaller parties such as BSW and FDP remain further back, reducing their chance of finishing fourth. With only days remaining, final campaign events and turnout patterns among core voter groups will determine whether any party pulls ahead or falls behind in the narrow margin.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$13,229Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election shows a tight contest among Die Linke, the CDU, the AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, with each frequently polling between 16% and 23%. This clustering keeps fourth place highly uncertain, as small shifts in turnout or late voter movement among these parties can reorder the standings. Die Grünen currently sit near the middle of that pack in most surveys, supporting their position in the market, while the AfD and CDU trail slightly in implied probability for that specific slot. The SPD and smaller parties such as BSW and FDP remain further back, reducing their chance of finishing fourth. With only days remaining, final campaign events and turnout patterns among core voter groups will determine whether any party pulls ahead or falls behind in the narrow margin.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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