Recent polls conducted in the week before the September 20 Berlin state election show the AfD holding steady at 17-18%, placing it third behind the Linke (21-23%) and CDU (20-21%) while ahead of the Greens. This represents roughly double the party’s 9.1% share from the 2023 repeat election and reflects sustained national momentum on issues such as immigration and economic discontent, even in a traditionally left-leaning capital. Multiple surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA confirm the 17-20% band, with limited movement in the final stretch and no major AfD-specific events shifting the numbers. Traders therefore price the 17-20% and 20%+ brackets as the most probable outcomes, while the sub-14% range remains a distant tail risk given the consistent polling floor.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado17-20% 48%
20%+ 26%
14-17% 22%
<14% 3.5%
$22,415 Vol.
$22,415 Vol.
20 sep 2026
<14%
3%
14-17%
22%
17-20%
48%
20%+
26%
17-20% 48%
20%+ 26%
14-17% 22%
<14% 3.5%
$22,415 Vol.
$22,415 Vol.
20 sep 2026
<14%
$3,083 Vol.
3%
14-17%
$5,338 Vol.
22%
17-20%
$5,114 Vol.
48%
20%+
$8,880 Vol.
26%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls conducted in the week before the September 20 Berlin state election show the AfD holding steady at 17-18%, placing it third behind the Linke (21-23%) and CDU (20-21%) while ahead of the Greens. This represents roughly double the party’s 9.1% share from the 2023 repeat election and reflects sustained national momentum on issues such as immigration and economic discontent, even in a traditionally left-leaning capital. Multiple surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA confirm the 17-20% band, with limited movement in the final stretch and no major AfD-specific events shifting the numbers. Traders therefore price the 17-20% and 20%+ brackets as the most probable outcomes, while the sub-14% range remains a distant tail risk given the consistent polling floor.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volumen
$22,415Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls conducted in the week before the September 20 Berlin state election show the AfD holding steady at 17-18%, placing it third behind the Linke (21-23%) and CDU (20-21%) while ahead of the Greens. This represents roughly double the party’s 9.1% share from the 2023 repeat election and reflects sustained national momentum on issues such as immigration and economic discontent, even in a traditionally left-leaning capital. Multiple surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA confirm the 17-20% band, with limited movement in the final stretch and no major AfD-specific events shifting the numbers. Traders therefore price the 17-20% and 20%+ brackets as the most probable outcomes, while the sub-14% range remains a distant tail risk given the consistent polling floor.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$22,415Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls conducted in the week before the September 20 Berlin state election show the AfD holding steady at 17-18%, placing it third behind the Linke (21-23%) and CDU (20-21%) while ahead of the Greens. This represents roughly double the party’s 9.1% share from the 2023 repeat election and reflects sustained national momentum on issues such as immigration and economic discontent, even in a traditionally left-leaning capital. Multiple surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA confirm the 17-20% band, with limited movement in the final stretch and no major AfD-specific events shifting the numbers. Traders therefore price the 17-20% and 20%+ brackets as the most probable outcomes, while the sub-14% range remains a distant tail risk given the consistent polling floor.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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