Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race due to his status as the Democratic incumbent who narrowly flipped the seat in 2024, combined with California's mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the district toward a clearer Democratic lean. Gray advanced comfortably through the June 2026 primary with 42% of the vote, outpacing Republican Kevin Lincoln at 28%, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million raised versus Lincoln's roughly $2.2 million. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying partisan composition and Gray's local focus on agriculture and affordability issues. Trader consensus at 94% for Gray reflects this structural advantage, though a major national Republican surge, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late-breaking developments tied to Lincoln's mayoral record could narrow the margin before the November general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$16,049 Vol.
$16,049 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Adam Gray (D)
94%
Kevin Lincoln (R)
7%
$16,049 Vol.
$16,049 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Adam Gray (D)
$9,134 Vol.
94%
Kevin Lincoln (R)
$6,915 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race due to his status as the Democratic incumbent who narrowly flipped the seat in 2024, combined with California's mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the district toward a clearer Democratic lean. Gray advanced comfortably through the June 2026 primary with 42% of the vote, outpacing Republican Kevin Lincoln at 28%, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million raised versus Lincoln's roughly $2.2 million. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying partisan composition and Gray's local focus on agriculture and affordability issues. Trader consensus at 94% for Gray reflects this structural advantage, though a major national Republican surge, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late-breaking developments tied to Lincoln's mayoral record could narrow the margin before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volumen
$16,049Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race due to his status as the Democratic incumbent who narrowly flipped the seat in 2024, combined with California's mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the district toward a clearer Democratic lean. Gray advanced comfortably through the June 2026 primary with 42% of the vote, outpacing Republican Kevin Lincoln at 28%, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million raised versus Lincoln's roughly $2.2 million. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying partisan composition and Gray's local focus on agriculture and affordability issues. Trader consensus at 94% for Gray reflects this structural advantage, though a major national Republican surge, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late-breaking developments tied to Lincoln's mayoral record could narrow the margin before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$16,049Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race due to his status as the Democratic incumbent who narrowly flipped the seat in 2024, combined with California's mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the district toward a clearer Democratic lean. Gray advanced comfortably through the June 2026 primary with 42% of the vote, outpacing Republican Kevin Lincoln at 28%, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million raised versus Lincoln's roughly $2.2 million. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying partisan composition and Gray's local focus on agriculture and affordability issues. Trader consensus at 94% for Gray reflects this structural advantage, though a major national Republican surge, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late-breaking developments tied to Lincoln's mayoral record could narrow the margin before the November general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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