The NFL single-season rushing touchdowns record of 28, set by LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, has remained untouched amid a leaguewide shift toward pass-heavy schemes, backfield committees, and conservative red-zone usage that limit individual workloads. Entering the 2026 season, consensus projections for leading candidates such as Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor cluster in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting recent seasons where league-high totals reached only 18. This creates a closely contested market at 52.5% for “No,” balancing the record’s durability against the slim chance a durable workhorse in a run-friendly offense strings together an outlier 17-game campaign. Key swing factors include injury resilience for featured backs, offensive coordinator changes emphasizing goal-line carries, and any reduction in committee approaches that could elevate one player’s scoring volume.