Several Republican-held Senate seats are polling within or near single-digit margins as of mid-September 2026, with Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Maine, Michigan, and Iowa rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by multiple forecasters. Recent national polling averages show Democrats ahead by roughly 6-7 points on the generic ballot, reflecting softer Republican support amid economic concerns and lower presidential approval. Primaries have concluded in nearly all competitive states, locking in matchups such as Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted in Ohio and Mary Peltola versus Dan Sullivan in Alaska. Late-cycle shifts have narrowed several races further, though historical polling accuracy and turnout patterns in these battlegrounds remain key variables. Election Day is November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
3 nov 2026
Ohio (Special)
37%
Florida (Special)
25%
Maine
20%
Texas
19%
Nebraska
26%
Michigan
17%
Alaska
17%
New Hampshire
15%
Minnesota
15%
Iowa
20%
Georgia
10%
North Carolina
6%
Colorado
4%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
New Mexico
2%
$2,980 Vol.
Ohio (Special)
$84 Vol.
37%
Florida (Special)
$70 Vol.
25%
Maine
$36 Vol.
20%
Texas
$52 Vol.
19%
Nebraska
$106 Vol.
26%
Michigan
$177 Vol.
17%
Alaska
$228 Vol.
17%
New Hampshire
$269 Vol.
15%
Minnesota
$109 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$100 Vol.
20%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
10%
North Carolina
$219 Vol.
6%
Colorado
$945 Vol.
4%
Montana
$154 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$157 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$274 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held Senate seats are polling within or near single-digit margins as of mid-September 2026, with Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Maine, Michigan, and Iowa rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by multiple forecasters. Recent national polling averages show Democrats ahead by roughly 6-7 points on the generic ballot, reflecting softer Republican support amid economic concerns and lower presidential approval. Primaries have concluded in nearly all competitive states, locking in matchups such as Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted in Ohio and Mary Peltola versus Dan Sullivan in Alaska. Late-cycle shifts have narrowed several races further, though historical polling accuracy and turnout patterns in these battlegrounds remain key variables. Election Day is November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volumen
$2,980Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held Senate seats are polling within or near single-digit margins as of mid-September 2026, with Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Maine, Michigan, and Iowa rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by multiple forecasters. Recent national polling averages show Democrats ahead by roughly 6-7 points on the generic ballot, reflecting softer Republican support amid economic concerns and lower presidential approval. Primaries have concluded in nearly all competitive states, locking in matchups such as Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted in Ohio and Mary Peltola versus Dan Sullivan in Alaska. Late-cycle shifts have narrowed several races further, though historical polling accuracy and turnout patterns in these battlegrounds remain key variables. Election Day is November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,980Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several Republican-held Senate seats are polling within or near single-digit margins as of mid-September 2026, with Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Maine, Michigan, and Iowa rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by multiple forecasters. Recent national polling averages show Democrats ahead by roughly 6-7 points on the generic ballot, reflecting softer Republican support amid economic concerns and lower presidential approval. Primaries have concluded in nearly all competitive states, locking in matchups such as Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted in Ohio and Mary Peltola versus Dan Sullivan in Alaska. Late-cycle shifts have narrowed several races further, though historical polling accuracy and turnout patterns in these battlegrounds remain key variables. Election Day is November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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