Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its conventional forces, with recent Ukrainian intelligence reporting Kremlin orders for new ground offensives toward Kyiv and Chernihiv while Moscow sustains high attrition and recruitment shortfalls. Western assessments, including U.S. intelligence warnings delivered during the CIA director's late-August Moscow visit, highlight risks of limited provocations, drone incursions, or strikes against NATO states like the Baltics or Poland to test alliance cohesion, yet explicitly judge a full-scale conventional invasion of additional territory as unlikely in the near term. Kremlin denials of NATO attack plans and emphasis on the Ukraine theater reinforce this positioning, with no verified new invasions reported through August 2026. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring no new invasion this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?
¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?
Sí
8% probabilidad
$429,595 Vol.
$429,595 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
8% probabilidad
$429,595 Vol.
$429,595 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its conventional forces, with recent Ukrainian intelligence reporting Kremlin orders for new ground offensives toward Kyiv and Chernihiv while Moscow sustains high attrition and recruitment shortfalls. Western assessments, including U.S. intelligence warnings delivered during the CIA director's late-August Moscow visit, highlight risks of limited provocations, drone incursions, or strikes against NATO states like the Baltics or Poland to test alliance cohesion, yet explicitly judge a full-scale conventional invasion of additional territory as unlikely in the near term. Kremlin denials of NATO attack plans and emphasis on the Ukraine theater reinforce this positioning, with no verified new invasions reported through August 2026. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring no new invasion this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Volumen
$429,595Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its conventional forces, with recent Ukrainian intelligence reporting Kremlin orders for new ground offensives toward Kyiv and Chernihiv while Moscow sustains high attrition and recruitment shortfalls. Western assessments, including U.S. intelligence warnings delivered during the CIA director's late-August Moscow visit, highlight risks of limited provocations, drone incursions, or strikes against NATO states like the Baltics or Poland to test alliance cohesion, yet explicitly judge a full-scale conventional invasion of additional territory as unlikely in the near term. Kremlin denials of NATO attack plans and emphasis on the Ukraine theater reinforce this positioning, with no verified new invasions reported through August 2026. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring no new invasion this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$429,595Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its conventional forces, with recent Ukrainian intelligence reporting Kremlin orders for new ground offensives toward Kyiv and Chernihiv while Moscow sustains high attrition and recruitment shortfalls. Western assessments, including U.S. intelligence warnings delivered during the CIA director's late-August Moscow visit, highlight risks of limited provocations, drone incursions, or strikes against NATO states like the Baltics or Poland to test alliance cohesion, yet explicitly judge a full-scale conventional invasion of additional territory as unlikely in the near term. Kremlin denials of NATO attack plans and emphasis on the Ukraine theater reinforce this positioning, with no verified new invasions reported through August 2026. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring no new invasion this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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