Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to begin rebuilding Alcatraz as a federal prison remains a non-binding proposal without congressional appropriations or National Park Service transfer authority. The island continues to operate exclusively as a tourist site under the National Park Service, with major logistical barriers including absent mainland utilities, high operating costs, and the need for environmental and regulatory approvals. No feasibility study has advanced to construction, and the calendar window to house any inmate by December 31, 2026, has narrowed significantly. Trader consensus at 98.2% for no reopening reflects these entrenched procedural and physical constraints. Late congressional action or an expedited interagency agreement could theoretically shift timelines, though both face substantial institutional hurdles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour3% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
3% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to begin rebuilding Alcatraz as a federal prison remains a non-binding proposal without congressional appropriations or National Park Service transfer authority. The island continues to operate exclusively as a tourist site under the National Park Service, with major logistical barriers including absent mainland utilities, high operating costs, and the need for environmental and regulatory approvals. No feasibility study has advanced to construction, and the calendar window to house any inmate by December 31, 2026, has narrowed significantly. Trader consensus at 98.2% for no reopening reflects these entrenched procedural and physical constraints. Late congressional action or an expedited interagency agreement could theoretically shift timelines, though both face substantial institutional hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,381Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to begin rebuilding Alcatraz as a federal prison remains a non-binding proposal without congressional appropriations or National Park Service transfer authority. The island continues to operate exclusively as a tourist site under the National Park Service, with major logistical barriers including absent mainland utilities, high operating costs, and the need for environmental and regulatory approvals. No feasibility study has advanced to construction, and the calendar window to house any inmate by December 31, 2026, has narrowed significantly. Trader consensus at 98.2% for no reopening reflects these entrenched procedural and physical constraints. Late congressional action or an expedited interagency agreement could theoretically shift timelines, though both face substantial institutional hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,381Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to begin rebuilding Alcatraz as a federal prison remains a non-binding proposal without congressional appropriations or National Park Service transfer authority. The island continues to operate exclusively as a tourist site under the National Park Service, with major logistical barriers including absent mainland utilities, high operating costs, and the need for environmental and regulatory approvals. No feasibility study has advanced to construction, and the calendar window to house any inmate by December 31, 2026, has narrowed significantly. Trader consensus at 98.2% for no reopening reflects these entrenched procedural and physical constraints. Late congressional action or an expedited interagency agreement could theoretically shift timelines, though both face substantial institutional hurdles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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