Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district to face Republican Bob Smith in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97.5%. Carbajal's primary performance, drawing over 54% against a divided field, reinforced expectations of continued incumbency advantage in a seat he has held since 2017. Limited recent developments have shifted this positioning, as the race lacks competitive indicators in polling or fundraising gaps. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national political shift, significant candidate-specific developments before November, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in this low-uncertainty contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-24
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-24
$50,806 Vol.
$50,806 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
98%
Parti républicain
1%
$50,806 Vol.
$50,806 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$32,466 Vol.
98%
Parti républicain
$18,339 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district to face Republican Bob Smith in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97.5%. Carbajal's primary performance, drawing over 54% against a divided field, reinforced expectations of continued incumbency advantage in a seat he has held since 2017. Limited recent developments have shifted this positioning, as the race lacks competitive indicators in polling or fundraising gaps. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national political shift, significant candidate-specific developments before November, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in this low-uncertainty contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$50,806Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district to face Republican Bob Smith in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97.5%. Carbajal's primary performance, drawing over 54% against a divided field, reinforced expectations of continued incumbency advantage in a seat he has held since 2017. Limited recent developments have shifted this positioning, as the race lacks competitive indicators in polling or fundraising gaps. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national political shift, significant candidate-specific developments before November, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in this low-uncertainty contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,806Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district to face Republican Bob Smith in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97.5%. Carbajal's primary performance, drawing over 54% against a divided field, reinforced expectations of continued incumbency advantage in a seat he has held since 2017. Limited recent developments have shifted this positioning, as the race lacks competitive indicators in polling or fundraising gaps. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national political shift, significant candidate-specific developments before November, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in this low-uncertainty contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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