Incumbent Gil Cisneros holds a commanding position in the CA-31 general election due to the district’s Democratic registration edge of nearly 18 points and its consistent performance in recent cycles, including a double-digit margin for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed the matchup, with Cisneros securing roughly 61 percent of the vote against Republican Eric Ching’s 24 percent, advancing both to November. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting structural advantages in voter composition and turnout patterns. Ching’s limited fundraising and name recognition further constrain his path. While late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political shift could narrow the gap, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s established partisan baseline and the incumbent’s primary performance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-31
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-31
$17,910 Vol.
$17,910 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Gil Cisneros (D)
95%
Eric Ching (R)
5%
$17,910 Vol.
$17,910 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Gil Cisneros (D)
$7,829 Vol.
95%
Eric Ching (R)
$10,081 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Gil Cisneros holds a commanding position in the CA-31 general election due to the district’s Democratic registration edge of nearly 18 points and its consistent performance in recent cycles, including a double-digit margin for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed the matchup, with Cisneros securing roughly 61 percent of the vote against Republican Eric Ching’s 24 percent, advancing both to November. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting structural advantages in voter composition and turnout patterns. Ching’s limited fundraising and name recognition further constrain his path. While late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political shift could narrow the gap, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s established partisan baseline and the incumbent’s primary performance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$17,910Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Gil Cisneros holds a commanding position in the CA-31 general election due to the district’s Democratic registration edge of nearly 18 points and its consistent performance in recent cycles, including a double-digit margin for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed the matchup, with Cisneros securing roughly 61 percent of the vote against Republican Eric Ching’s 24 percent, advancing both to November. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting structural advantages in voter composition and turnout patterns. Ching’s limited fundraising and name recognition further constrain his path. While late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political shift could narrow the gap, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s established partisan baseline and the incumbent’s primary performance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,910Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Gil Cisneros holds a commanding position in the CA-31 general election due to the district’s Democratic registration edge of nearly 18 points and its consistent performance in recent cycles, including a double-digit margin for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed the matchup, with Cisneros securing roughly 61 percent of the vote against Republican Eric Ching’s 24 percent, advancing both to November. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting structural advantages in voter composition and turnout patterns. Ching’s limited fundraising and name recognition further constrain his path. While late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political shift could narrow the gap, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s established partisan baseline and the incumbent’s primary performance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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