Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing roughly 8% support among Black registered voters, down from the approximately 15% achieved in 2024, amid economic concerns and partisan identification trends that have stabilized Democratic advantages near 70%. Modest 2024 gains among subgroups such as Black men and evangelicals have not fully held, with approval ratings for the administration in the mid-teens and turnout patterns influenced by redistricting developments in Southern states. These factors sustain trader focus on the 8–13% range as the most probable outcomes, with separation likely hinging on final turnout differentials, economic indicators, or late-cycle messaging that either reinforces or reverses the post-2024 trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour10–11 % 26%
12–13 % 22%
8–9 % 16%
<8 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 nov. 2026
<8 %
11%
8–9 %
24%
10–11 %
26%
12–13 %
22%
14–15 %
9%
16–17 %
6%
18 %+
3%
10–11 % 26%
12–13 % 22%
8–9 % 16%
<8 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 nov. 2026
<8 %
$20 Vol.
11%
8–9 %
$538 Vol.
24%
10–11 %
$441 Vol.
26%
12–13 %
$351 Vol.
22%
14–15 %
$192 Vol.
9%
16–17 %
$20 Vol.
6%
18 %+
$91 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing roughly 8% support among Black registered voters, down from the approximately 15% achieved in 2024, amid economic concerns and partisan identification trends that have stabilized Democratic advantages near 70%. Modest 2024 gains among subgroups such as Black men and evangelicals have not fully held, with approval ratings for the administration in the mid-teens and turnout patterns influenced by redistricting developments in Southern states. These factors sustain trader focus on the 8–13% range as the most probable outcomes, with separation likely hinging on final turnout differentials, economic indicators, or late-cycle messaging that either reinforces or reverses the post-2024 trajectory.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,652Date de fin
7 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing roughly 8% support among Black registered voters, down from the approximately 15% achieved in 2024, amid economic concerns and partisan identification trends that have stabilized Democratic advantages near 70%. Modest 2024 gains among subgroups such as Black men and evangelicals have not fully held, with approval ratings for the administration in the mid-teens and turnout patterns influenced by redistricting developments in Southern states. These factors sustain trader focus on the 8–13% range as the most probable outcomes, with separation likely hinging on final turnout differentials, economic indicators, or late-cycle messaging that either reinforces or reverses the post-2024 trajectory.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$1,652Date de fin
7 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing roughly 8% support among Black registered voters, down from the approximately 15% achieved in 2024, amid economic concerns and partisan identification trends that have stabilized Democratic advantages near 70%. Modest 2024 gains among subgroups such as Black men and evangelicals have not fully held, with approval ratings for the administration in the mid-teens and turnout patterns influenced by redistricting developments in Southern states. These factors sustain trader focus on the 8–13% range as the most probable outcomes, with separation likely hinging on final turnout differentials, economic indicators, or late-cycle messaging that either reinforces or reverses the post-2024 trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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