The 53.5% implied probability on “No” reflects trader consensus that the 28-touchdown single-season rushing mark set by LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 remains a formidable barrier entering the 2026 campaign. Modern offenses emphasize passing volume and backfield committees, limiting any one runner’s goal-line opportunities, while dual-threat quarterbacks such as Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts absorb a share of designed rushing scores. Preseason projections place league leaders—Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, and Bijan Robinson—in the 12-to-18 range even in favorable situations. A workhorse back in an elite run-heavy scheme with sustained health and red-zone dominance could narrow the gap, but late training-camp injuries, offensive-line attrition, or shifts toward pass-heavy game plans would reinforce the historical precedent and widen the margin for “No.”