Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?
$6,293,564 Vol.
30 juin 2027
31 août
$585,176 Vol.
<1%
31 octobre
$944,359 Vol.
9%
31 décembre
$2,218,068 Vol.
20%
31 mars 2027
$4,896 Vol.
37%
30 juin 2027
$3,734 Vol.
50%
$6,293,564 Vol.
31 août
$585,176 Vol.
<1%
31 octobre
$944,359 Vol.
9%
31 décembre
$2,218,068 Vol.
20%
31 mars 2027
$4,896 Vol.
37%
30 juin 2027
$3,734 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent Russian military advances in Donetsk and insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from the remaining Donbas territory as a precondition for any ceasefire have kept formal negotiations on a deep pause, according to Kremlin statements in late August 2026. Recent trilateral U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier this year produced only prisoner exchanges without resolving core territorial or security issues. Ukrainian officials anticipate possible technical discussions resuming in September, while U.S. envoys continue exploratory contacts, yet both sides report limited progress amid ongoing frontline operations. These stalled diplomatic tracks and battlefield realities shape trader assessments of near-term ceasefire prospects.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent Russian military advances in Donetsk and insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from the remaining Donbas territory as a precondition for any ceasefire have kept formal negotiations on a deep pause, according to Kremlin statements in late August 2026. Recent trilateral U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier this year produced only prisoner exchanges without resolving core territorial or security issues. Ukrainian officials anticipate possible technical discussions resuming in September, while U.S. envoys continue exploratory contacts, yet both sides report limited progress amid ongoing frontline operations. These stalled diplomatic tracks and battlefield realities shape trader assessments of near-term ceasefire prospects.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Aug 30 2026
Russia-Ukraine peace talks stall as U.S. mediation fails to secure concrete dates
December 31 dips to 19%3%
By late August 2026, peace talks mediated by the U.S. had stalled without securing concrete dates for further negotiations or ceasefire agreements. Russian officials criticized Western negotiation efforts as insincere, and Moscow maintained its maximalist demands, leading to market pessimism about a ceasefire by the end of 2026.
Aug 28 2026
Russia states peace talks with Ukraine remain on hold with no new ideas
December 31 drops to 19%8%
The Kremlin announced that peace talks with Ukraine are currently on hold and no new proposals have been made, signaling stalled negotiations and continued military actions, which contributed to declining market confidence in a ceasefire by late 2026.
Aug 28 2026
Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain on hold with no new ideas, Kremlin says
December 31 dips to 19%3%
The Kremlin announced that peace talks with Ukraine are currently on hold and no new proposals have been made, indicating stalled negotiations and continued military actions, which contributed to declining market confidence in a ceasefire by the end of 2026.
Aug 27 2026
Ukrainian officials signal potential resumption of trilateral talks with Russia and U.S.
June 30, 2027 dips to 50%1%
On August 27, 2026, Ukrainian Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov indicated that trilateral talks with Russia and the U.S. could resume as early as September, with proposals including a ceasefire and security guarantees. Despite this diplomatic momentum, Russian maximalist demands and battlefield dynamics maintained market skepticism about near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 22 2026
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates refusal to accept ceasefire freezing current frontline
October 31 dips to 11%3%
On August 14, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated Russia's unwillingness to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline, emphasizing Russia's commitment to continue the war until its terms are met. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 14 2026
Russian officials reiterate refusal to accept ceasefire without favorable terms
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia is unwilling to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline and emphasized Russia’s commitment to continue the war until a settlement on its own terms is secured. This stance reinforced market skepticism about a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026.
Aug 14 2026
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates refusal to accept ceasefire freezing current frontline
December 31 drops to 19%8%
On August 14, 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly stated that Russia would not accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline and reaffirmed Russia's commitment to continue the war until its terms are met. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 13 2026
Ukraine proposes ceasefire in Black Sea to Russia
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Ukraine conveyed a proposal to Russia through a mediator to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, aiming to reduce hostilities in a specific area. Moscow had not responded by the end of the analysis window, reflecting ongoing stalemate and limited progress toward a broader ceasefire.
Aug 13 2026
Ukraine proposes ceasefire in Black Sea to Russia through mediator
December 31 drops to 19%8%
Ukraine conveyed a proposal to Russia via a mediator to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, aiming to reduce hostilities in a specific conflict area. Moscow had not responded by the end of the analysis window, and the proposal did not constitute a general ceasefire, thus not qualifying as a full ceasefire agreement.
Aug 11 2026
Ukraine hands US new proposals aimed at ending war with Russia
June 30, 2027 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv has submitted new proposals to the US to end the war with Russia, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential groundwork for future ceasefire talks. This raised some market optimism for longer-term ceasefire possibilities.
Jul 26 2026
Kremlin says too early to comment on reported US-Ukraine air ceasefire talks
Reports emerged that the US and Ukraine were discussing a possible halt to aerial attacks as part of peace efforts, but the Kremlin considered it premature to comment. This indicated some diplomatic activity but no concrete ceasefire agreement, causing limited market impact.
Jul 26 2026
Ukraine and U.S. discuss air ceasefire proposal to present to Russia
December 31 dips to 20%2%
Ukrainian and U.S. officials discussed a proposal for an air ceasefire to present to Russia as a first step toward reviving peace talks, though the Kremlin considered it premature to comment, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid stalled negotiations.
Jun 18 2026
Zelensky says US pushing for Ukraine-Russia ceasefire by June 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that US envoys are pressing for a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia by June 2026, reflecting ongoing trilateral peace talks. This statement influenced market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by mid-2026, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
US, Ukraine push to resume peace talks with Russia aiming for partial ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 35%9%
Reports indicated renewed diplomatic efforts by the US and Ukraine to resume peace talks with Russia, aiming for a partial ceasefire by the end of 2026. This development increased market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by December 31, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy proposes meeting with Putin and full ceasefire during negotiations
December 31 drops to 36%8%
In June 2026, Zelenskyy proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin in a neutral country and called for a full ceasefire for the duration of negotiations. Putin rejected the proposal, stating no point in a meeting and indicating Russia would continue fighting, which dampened ceasefire prospects.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky proposes full ceasefire for duration of negotiations
December 31 drops to 22%5%
In early June 2026, President Zelensky proposed a full ceasefire for the duration of peace negotiations and a face-to-face meeting with Putin, signaling Ukraine's willingness to freeze the frontline, though Russia rejected the offer, maintaining maximalist demands.
May 20 2026
Russia declares unilateral ceasefire for Victory Day but warns of retaliation
December 31 drops to 26%9%
Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 8-9 to coincide with Victory Day celebrations but simultaneously warned of a major strike on Kyiv if Ukraine disrupted the parade. This contradictory stance underscored the fragility of ceasefire efforts and limited market confidence in a lasting agreement.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner swap under ceasefire agreement
December 31 dips to 19%4%
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, marking a significant humanitarian step. Despite this, sporadic violations and ongoing hostilities limited broader market confidence, reflected in declining prices for earlier ceasefire dates.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine exchange 205 prisoners each amid fragile ceasefire
June 30, 2027 rises to 57%1%
As part of the US-brokered ceasefire agreement, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners of war each on May 15, marking the first phase of a larger planned exchange. Despite the prisoner swap, fighting resumed shortly after the ceasefire ended, underscoring the temporary nature of the truce.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner swap following May ceasefire
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, marking progress in implementing the ceasefire terms and sustaining cautious optimism about future negotiations.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner exchange under ceasefire agreement
On May 15, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each as part of the agreement linked to the May 9-11 ceasefire brokered by the U.S. This tangible implementation of the prisoner swap demonstrated progress in the ceasefire terms and maintained diplomatic momentum.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner exchange following ceasefire
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each on May 15, marking a humanitarian step forward and reinforcing the ceasefire's temporary success, which supported market optimism about potential peace progress.
May 13 2026
Ukraine and Russia complete prisoner swap following May ceasefire
On May 15, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each as part of the agreement linked to the May 9-11 ceasefire brokered by the U.S., reinforcing the temporary truce and sustaining market optimism about potential broader ceasefire agreements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent Russian military advances in Donetsk and insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from the remaining Donbas territory as a precondition for any ceasefire have kept formal negotiations on a deep pause, according to Kremlin statements in late August 2026. Recent trilateral U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier this year produced only prisoner exchanges without resolving core territorial or security issues. Ukrainian officials anticipate possible technical discussions resuming in September, while U.S. envoys continue exploratory contacts, yet both sides report limited progress amid ongoing frontline operations. These stalled diplomatic tracks and battlefield realities shape trader assessments of near-term ceasefire prospects.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent Russian military advances in Donetsk and insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from the remaining Donbas territory as a precondition for any ceasefire have kept formal negotiations on a deep pause, according to Kremlin statements in late August 2026. Recent trilateral U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier this year produced only prisoner exchanges without resolving core territorial or security issues. Ukrainian officials anticipate possible technical discussions resuming in September, while U.S. envoys continue exploratory contacts, yet both sides report limited progress amid ongoing frontline operations. These stalled diplomatic tracks and battlefield realities shape trader assessments of near-term ceasefire prospects.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Aug 30 2026
Russia-Ukraine peace talks stall as U.S. mediation fails to secure concrete dates
December 31 dips to 19%3%
By late August 2026, peace talks mediated by the U.S. had stalled without securing concrete dates for further negotiations or ceasefire agreements. Russian officials criticized Western negotiation efforts as insincere, and Moscow maintained its maximalist demands, leading to market pessimism about a ceasefire by the end of 2026.
Aug 28 2026
Russia states peace talks with Ukraine remain on hold with no new ideas
December 31 drops to 19%8%
The Kremlin announced that peace talks with Ukraine are currently on hold and no new proposals have been made, signaling stalled negotiations and continued military actions, which contributed to declining market confidence in a ceasefire by late 2026.
Aug 28 2026
Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain on hold with no new ideas, Kremlin says
December 31 dips to 19%3%
The Kremlin announced that peace talks with Ukraine are currently on hold and no new proposals have been made, indicating stalled negotiations and continued military actions, which contributed to declining market confidence in a ceasefire by the end of 2026.
Aug 27 2026
Ukrainian officials signal potential resumption of trilateral talks with Russia and U.S.
June 30, 2027 dips to 50%1%
On August 27, 2026, Ukrainian Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov indicated that trilateral talks with Russia and the U.S. could resume as early as September, with proposals including a ceasefire and security guarantees. Despite this diplomatic momentum, Russian maximalist demands and battlefield dynamics maintained market skepticism about near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 22 2026
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates refusal to accept ceasefire freezing current frontline
October 31 dips to 11%3%
On August 14, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated Russia's unwillingness to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline, emphasizing Russia's commitment to continue the war until its terms are met. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 14 2026
Russian officials reiterate refusal to accept ceasefire without favorable terms
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia is unwilling to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline and emphasized Russia’s commitment to continue the war until a settlement on its own terms is secured. This stance reinforced market skepticism about a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026.
Aug 14 2026
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates refusal to accept ceasefire freezing current frontline
December 31 drops to 19%8%
On August 14, 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly stated that Russia would not accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline and reaffirmed Russia's commitment to continue the war until its terms are met. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 13 2026
Ukraine proposes ceasefire in Black Sea to Russia
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Ukraine conveyed a proposal to Russia through a mediator to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, aiming to reduce hostilities in a specific area. Moscow had not responded by the end of the analysis window, reflecting ongoing stalemate and limited progress toward a broader ceasefire.
Aug 13 2026
Ukraine proposes ceasefire in Black Sea to Russia through mediator
December 31 drops to 19%8%
Ukraine conveyed a proposal to Russia via a mediator to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, aiming to reduce hostilities in a specific conflict area. Moscow had not responded by the end of the analysis window, and the proposal did not constitute a general ceasefire, thus not qualifying as a full ceasefire agreement.
Aug 11 2026
Ukraine hands US new proposals aimed at ending war with Russia
June 30, 2027 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv has submitted new proposals to the US to end the war with Russia, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential groundwork for future ceasefire talks. This raised some market optimism for longer-term ceasefire possibilities.
Jul 26 2026
Kremlin says too early to comment on reported US-Ukraine air ceasefire talks
Reports emerged that the US and Ukraine were discussing a possible halt to aerial attacks as part of peace efforts, but the Kremlin considered it premature to comment. This indicated some diplomatic activity but no concrete ceasefire agreement, causing limited market impact.
Jul 26 2026
Ukraine and U.S. discuss air ceasefire proposal to present to Russia
December 31 dips to 20%2%
Ukrainian and U.S. officials discussed a proposal for an air ceasefire to present to Russia as a first step toward reviving peace talks, though the Kremlin considered it premature to comment, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid stalled negotiations.
Jun 18 2026
Zelensky says US pushing for Ukraine-Russia ceasefire by June 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that US envoys are pressing for a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia by June 2026, reflecting ongoing trilateral peace talks. This statement influenced market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by mid-2026, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
US, Ukraine push to resume peace talks with Russia aiming for partial ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 35%9%
Reports indicated renewed diplomatic efforts by the US and Ukraine to resume peace talks with Russia, aiming for a partial ceasefire by the end of 2026. This development increased market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by December 31, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy proposes meeting with Putin and full ceasefire during negotiations
December 31 drops to 36%8%
In June 2026, Zelenskyy proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin in a neutral country and called for a full ceasefire for the duration of negotiations. Putin rejected the proposal, stating no point in a meeting and indicating Russia would continue fighting, which dampened ceasefire prospects.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky proposes full ceasefire for duration of negotiations
December 31 drops to 22%5%
In early June 2026, President Zelensky proposed a full ceasefire for the duration of peace negotiations and a face-to-face meeting with Putin, signaling Ukraine's willingness to freeze the frontline, though Russia rejected the offer, maintaining maximalist demands.
May 20 2026
Russia declares unilateral ceasefire for Victory Day but warns of retaliation
December 31 drops to 26%9%
Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 8-9 to coincide with Victory Day celebrations but simultaneously warned of a major strike on Kyiv if Ukraine disrupted the parade. This contradictory stance underscored the fragility of ceasefire efforts and limited market confidence in a lasting agreement.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner swap under ceasefire agreement
December 31 dips to 19%4%
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, marking a significant humanitarian step. Despite this, sporadic violations and ongoing hostilities limited broader market confidence, reflected in declining prices for earlier ceasefire dates.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine exchange 205 prisoners each amid fragile ceasefire
June 30, 2027 rises to 57%1%
As part of the US-brokered ceasefire agreement, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners of war each on May 15, marking the first phase of a larger planned exchange. Despite the prisoner swap, fighting resumed shortly after the ceasefire ended, underscoring the temporary nature of the truce.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner swap following May ceasefire
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, marking progress in implementing the ceasefire terms and sustaining cautious optimism about future negotiations.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner exchange under ceasefire agreement
On May 15, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each as part of the agreement linked to the May 9-11 ceasefire brokered by the U.S. This tangible implementation of the prisoner swap demonstrated progress in the ceasefire terms and maintained diplomatic momentum.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner exchange following ceasefire
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each on May 15, marking a humanitarian step forward and reinforcing the ceasefire's temporary success, which supported market optimism about potential peace progress.
May 13 2026
Ukraine and Russia complete prisoner swap following May ceasefire
On May 15, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each as part of the agreement linked to the May 9-11 ceasefire brokered by the U.S., reinforcing the temporary truce and sustaining market optimism about potential broader ceasefire agreements.
« Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30 juin 2027 » à 50%, suivi de « 31 mars 2027 » à 37%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 50¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 50% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » a généré $6.3 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le May 12, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » est « 30 juin 2027 » à 50%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 50% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 mars 2027 » à 37%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
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Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $6.3 million échangés sur « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 50¢ pour « 30 juin 2027 » sur le marché « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 50% que « 30 juin 2027 » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 50¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 50¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » est prévu pour être résolu autour du Jun 30, 2027. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » a une communauté active de 133 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
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