Texas's 38th congressional district, covering affluent Houston suburbs in Harris County, maintains a strong Republican lean with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+10 and consistent double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles. The seat opened after incumbent Wesley Hunt sought higher office, yet Republican nominee Jon Bonck secured the nomination following a primary runoff and enters the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Melissa McDonough with broad institutional support reflected in Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican outcome tracks the district's electoral math, turnout patterns among suburban voters, and limited Democratic infrastructure. A national political shift, late-breaking scandal affecting the nominee, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the margin, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such reversals uncommon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38
$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jon Bonck (R)
93%
Melissa McDonough (D)
5%
$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jon Bonck (R)
$17,956 Vol.
93%
Melissa McDonough (D)
$10,050 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, covering affluent Houston suburbs in Harris County, maintains a strong Republican lean with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+10 and consistent double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles. The seat opened after incumbent Wesley Hunt sought higher office, yet Republican nominee Jon Bonck secured the nomination following a primary runoff and enters the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Melissa McDonough with broad institutional support reflected in Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican outcome tracks the district's electoral math, turnout patterns among suburban voters, and limited Democratic infrastructure. A national political shift, late-breaking scandal affecting the nominee, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the margin, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such reversals uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,006Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, covering affluent Houston suburbs in Harris County, maintains a strong Republican lean with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+10 and consistent double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles. The seat opened after incumbent Wesley Hunt sought higher office, yet Republican nominee Jon Bonck secured the nomination following a primary runoff and enters the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Melissa McDonough with broad institutional support reflected in Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican outcome tracks the district's electoral math, turnout patterns among suburban voters, and limited Democratic infrastructure. A national political shift, late-breaking scandal affecting the nominee, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the margin, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such reversals uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,006Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 38th congressional district, covering affluent Houston suburbs in Harris County, maintains a strong Republican lean with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+10 and consistent double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles. The seat opened after incumbent Wesley Hunt sought higher office, yet Republican nominee Jon Bonck secured the nomination following a primary runoff and enters the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Melissa McDonough with broad institutional support reflected in Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican outcome tracks the district's electoral math, turnout patterns among suburban voters, and limited Democratic infrastructure. A national political shift, late-breaking scandal affecting the nominee, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the margin, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such reversals uncommon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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