Tesla’s prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and Full Self-Driving deployment at Giga Texas has driven the 90.5% market-implied probability against Robovan orders before 2027. The autonomous van concept, unveiled in 2024, remains without an announced manufacturing site, battery specs, regulatory milestones, or customer-order timeline nearly two years later, with recent activity limited to a design patent and conceptual renders. Shareholder updates and earnings calls continue to defer larger platforms while directing resources toward Cybercab fleet scaling and Semi ramps, consistent with Tesla’s pattern of extended timelines for new autonomous vehicle lines. A surprise regulatory approval or accelerated prototype validation could still shift sentiment, though current verified developments show no such catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
10% chance
$32,137 Vol.
$32,137 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
10% chance
$32,137 Vol.
$32,137 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and Full Self-Driving deployment at Giga Texas has driven the 90.5% market-implied probability against Robovan orders before 2027. The autonomous van concept, unveiled in 2024, remains without an announced manufacturing site, battery specs, regulatory milestones, or customer-order timeline nearly two years later, with recent activity limited to a design patent and conceptual renders. Shareholder updates and earnings calls continue to defer larger platforms while directing resources toward Cybercab fleet scaling and Semi ramps, consistent with Tesla’s pattern of extended timelines for new autonomous vehicle lines. A surprise regulatory approval or accelerated prototype validation could still shift sentiment, though current verified developments show no such catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$32,137Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and Full Self-Driving deployment at Giga Texas has driven the 90.5% market-implied probability against Robovan orders before 2027. The autonomous van concept, unveiled in 2024, remains without an announced manufacturing site, battery specs, regulatory milestones, or customer-order timeline nearly two years later, with recent activity limited to a design patent and conceptual renders. Shareholder updates and earnings calls continue to defer larger platforms while directing resources toward Cybercab fleet scaling and Semi ramps, consistent with Tesla’s pattern of extended timelines for new autonomous vehicle lines. A surprise regulatory approval or accelerated prototype validation could still shift sentiment, though current verified developments show no such catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$32,137Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and Full Self-Driving deployment at Giga Texas has driven the 90.5% market-implied probability against Robovan orders before 2027. The autonomous van concept, unveiled in 2024, remains without an announced manufacturing site, battery specs, regulatory milestones, or customer-order timeline nearly two years later, with recent activity limited to a design patent and conceptual renders. Shareholder updates and earnings calls continue to defer larger platforms while directing resources toward Cybercab fleet scaling and Semi ramps, consistent with Tesla’s pattern of extended timelines for new autonomous vehicle lines. A surprise regulatory approval or accelerated prototype validation could still shift sentiment, though current verified developments show no such catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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