Trader consensus on 2026 House turnout centers on elevated participation relative to typical midterms, driven by the nationalized contest as a referendum on the Trump administration amid sub-50% approval ratings and a Democratic generic ballot edge. Opposition energy among Democrats, bolstered by special election results and targeted outreach to lower-propensity voters, supports higher mobilization, while Republican efforts including a midterm convention and calls for presidential-year-style engagement aim to offset base fatigue among some traditional conservatives. Expanded mail and early voting options provide a structural floor, and modest youth registration gains add potential upside. Close clustering around 115-130 million votes reflects uncertainty over whether these factors will sustain or exceed 2018-2022 levels or revert toward historical averages near 100-110 million, with late-cycle polling, economic conditions, and get-out-the-vote intensity likely to determine separation.