Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race in trader pricing following her strong performance in the August 18 top-four primary, where she captured 49.5% to incumbent Dan S. Sullivan’s 41.4%. The general election features ranked-choice voting among Peltola, Sullivan, same-named Republican Dan J. Sullivan, and Gerald Heikes after David Leslie’s withdrawal. Recent September polls show a tight contest, with Peltola edging ahead in initial and final-round RCV scenarios in surveys from AARP and Alaska Survey Research, while others indicate a statistical tie. Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the race a toss-up, citing Peltola’s fundraising advantage, independent voter support, and potential vote fragmentation among Republicans under RCV as key factors sustaining her market position ahead of the November 3 contest.