Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 has reshaped CA-01 boundaries for the November 2026 general election, incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas and producing a solid Democratic tilt according to multiple nonpartisan ratings. James Gallagher secured the short-term special election and primary under prior lines, but the full-term contest pits him against Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire on the new map. Traders price McGuire at 96.9% because the altered district composition and baseline partisan metrics create substantial structural headwinds for the Republican incumbent. Late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, major candidate events, or legal challenges to the map could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$35,064 वॉल्यूम
$35,064 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
माइक मैकग्वायर (डेमोक्रेट)
97%
जेम्स गैलेघर (रिपब्लिकन)
2%
$35,064 वॉल्यूम
$35,064 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
माइक मैकग्वायर (डेमोक्रेट)
$26,337 वॉल्यूम
97%
जेम्स गैलेघर (रिपब्लिकन)
$8,727 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 has reshaped CA-01 boundaries for the November 2026 general election, incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas and producing a solid Democratic tilt according to multiple nonpartisan ratings. James Gallagher secured the short-term special election and primary under prior lines, but the full-term contest pits him against Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire on the new map. Traders price McGuire at 96.9% because the altered district composition and baseline partisan metrics create substantial structural headwinds for the Republican incumbent. Late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, major candidate events, or legal challenges to the map could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$35,064समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 has reshaped CA-01 boundaries for the November 2026 general election, incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas and producing a solid Democratic tilt according to multiple nonpartisan ratings. James Gallagher secured the short-term special election and primary under prior lines, but the full-term contest pits him against Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire on the new map. Traders price McGuire at 96.9% because the altered district composition and baseline partisan metrics create substantial structural headwinds for the Republican incumbent. Late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, major candidate events, or legal challenges to the map could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$35,064समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 has reshaped CA-01 boundaries for the November 2026 general election, incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas and producing a solid Democratic tilt according to multiple nonpartisan ratings. James Gallagher secured the short-term special election and primary under prior lines, but the full-term contest pits him against Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire on the new map. Traders price McGuire at 96.9% because the altered district composition and baseline partisan metrics create substantial structural headwinds for the Republican incumbent. Late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, major candidate events, or legal challenges to the map could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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