California's 14th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay in Alameda County, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in consistent partisan voting patterns and election ratings classifying the seat as safe or solid for the party. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special election won by Democrat Aisha Wahab, who now serves as incumbent after defeating fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez in the August runoff. The June 2 top-two primary advanced only Wahab and Hernandez, both Democrats, to the November 3 general election, eliminating Republican contenders who combined for roughly one-quarter of primary votes. This structure, combined with the district's voter base and historical margins exceeding 20 points for Democratic presidential candidates, drives the market's overwhelming Democratic probability. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate viability not observed in recent cycles.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -14 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -14 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$35,762 वॉल्यूम
$35,762 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
97%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
<1%
$35,762 वॉल्यूम
$35,762 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$14,006 वॉल्यूम
97%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$21,756 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay in Alameda County, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in consistent partisan voting patterns and election ratings classifying the seat as safe or solid for the party. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special election won by Democrat Aisha Wahab, who now serves as incumbent after defeating fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez in the August runoff. The June 2 top-two primary advanced only Wahab and Hernandez, both Democrats, to the November 3 general election, eliminating Republican contenders who combined for roughly one-quarter of primary votes. This structure, combined with the district's voter base and historical margins exceeding 20 points for Democratic presidential candidates, drives the market's overwhelming Democratic probability. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate viability not observed in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$35,762समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay in Alameda County, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in consistent partisan voting patterns and election ratings classifying the seat as safe or solid for the party. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special election won by Democrat Aisha Wahab, who now serves as incumbent after defeating fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez in the August runoff. The June 2 top-two primary advanced only Wahab and Hernandez, both Democrats, to the November 3 general election, eliminating Republican contenders who combined for roughly one-quarter of primary votes. This structure, combined with the district's voter base and historical margins exceeding 20 points for Democratic presidential candidates, drives the market's overwhelming Democratic probability. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate viability not observed in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$35,762समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay in Alameda County, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in consistent partisan voting patterns and election ratings classifying the seat as safe or solid for the party. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special election won by Democrat Aisha Wahab, who now serves as incumbent after defeating fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez in the August runoff. The June 2 top-two primary advanced only Wahab and Hernandez, both Democrats, to the November 3 general election, eliminating Republican contenders who combined for roughly one-quarter of primary votes. This structure, combined with the district's voter base and historical margins exceeding 20 points for Democratic presidential candidates, drives the market's overwhelming Democratic probability. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate viability not observed in recent cycles.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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