**Canada's population has declined or remained flat in recent quarters due to federal immigration policy shifts that sharply reduced inflows of temporary residents while lowering permanent resident targets.** Statistics Canada data show an annual decline of over 100,000 people in 2025—the first on record—followed by a further drop of about 55,000 in Q1 2026, marking the third consecutive quarterly contraction. The primary driver is a sustained net outflow of non-permanent residents (international students, temporary workers), whose share of the population has fallen from peaks above 7% toward the government's target of under 5% by end-2027. The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan stabilizes permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually (down roughly 20% from 2024 peaks) and sets new temporary resident arrivals at 385,000 for 2026. These measures, combined with caps on study permits and tighter work permit rules, have produced ongoing net outflows that exceed new permanent additions and minimal natural increase. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat population growth for 2026 overall. Traders assign an 87.5% probability to "Down" for the year, reflecting the persistence of these policy-driven trends through the remainder of 2026 absent any reversal.