Strong El Niño conditions developing this fall, with GFDL ensemble models showing high confidence in a historically intense event peaking later in 2026, combined with the Climate Prediction Center’s September outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the southern and western U.S., are the main factors tilting trader sentiment toward later first measurable snowfall (typically 0.1 inch liquid equivalent at official stations). Historical medians from NOAA normals place first accumulating snow in October–November for much of the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and northern Rockies, shifting to December for mid-Atlantic and Northeast cities, with mountain areas occasionally seeing earlier events. Short-term CPC 6–10 day outlooks and updated seasonal model runs through fall will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities, as ENSO strength and early cold-air outbreaks remain the dominant variables.